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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Saw Eugenio Suarez made two errors at SS yesterday. Will be interesting to see how long the Reds stick with their jumbo infield alignment.
  2. sveumrules
    Another scouting notebook up at FanGraphs with someone who could be an intriguing possibility for the Brewers first rounder... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-wednesday-scouting-notebook-3-31-2021/ Sam Bachman went nine up nine down nine strikeouts for Miami (OH) last Saturday with a 70 grade slider/high nineties heater combo. Sounds like a reliever only profile with some injury/mechanics red flags & he pitches in a weaker conference, but could also have the upside of a quick to MLB multi inning impact bullpen arm.
  3. sveumrules
    In 2019 Hiura was a 22 year old 2B posting that wRC+ at AAA & then MLB, Grisham was a 22 year old CF posting those numbers at AA/AAA. Both also had scouting reports which made them first round picks. Sure, Hummel had a nice wRC+ in 2019, but he was a 24 year old LF in AA. If he posted that line playing catcher it would be much more impressive, but Cooper hasn't been behind the dish since 64 innings at A+ in 2018. If Hummel somehow ends up being the best player in our farm system it will either be utterly miraculous or thoroughly depressing.
  4. sveumrules
    Thanks again as always for putting this all together, reilly. Only thing better than a dramatic comeback win on Opening Day is reading the new BF.net Top 25. The Hedbert Perez helium makes sense to me, but the Micah Bello love definitely took me by surprise. Hopefully he can back up that confidence from the voters this summer. The biggest difference from my personal list is Bettinger. The guys from 8-19 might have higher upside, but with Alec already having a full season of impressive age appropriate results at AA & a shot at cracking MLB this year, its hard for me to rank him below that grouping of guys, many of whom have yet to play a game of affiliated ball stateside.
  5. sveumrules
    Looks like Toro is limited defensively to the corners where the Astros have Bregman, Brantley, Tucker & Gurriel slated to start. If he's more talented than those guys, sign me up.
  6. sveumrules
    Sure, Black has walked almost six guys per nine in the minors, but he also has a 16.7 K9 & a 0.6 HR9, so he has excelled in the other two areas where pitchers exert the most direct control. His yearly minor league walk rates & MLB totals seem to indicate he has made pretty signifigant progress since 2015-17... 2014: 35 IP | 4.1 BB9 2015: 25 IP | 9.0 BB9 2016: 31 IP | 9.2 BB9 2017: 2 IP | 11.6 BB9 2018: 35 IP | 3.0 BB9 2019: 28 IP | 4.7 BB9 MLB: 42 IP | 4.7 BB9
  7. sveumrules
    Given pitcher injury & attrition rates, a case could be made that they haven't been able to handle 162 game seasons for some time now. Maybe the shortened 2020 exasperates that, or maybe the extra rest is actually beneficial for some guys. Most likely it will vary on a case by case basis. 200 IP pitchers per season over last ten full seasons... 2010: 45 2011: 39 2012: 31 2013: 36 2014: 34 2015: 28 2016: 15 2017: 15 2018: 13 2019: 15 Sure, guys will pitch 200 IP this season. I'll guess seven total & zero on the Brewers.
  8. sveumrules
    Loved both Six Feet Under & the Leftovers, two of my all time favorite series for sure. John from Cincinnati is an interesting deep cut that is only one season, but it's David Milch so if you liked his other stuff maybe give it a shot. Also really enjoyed Painting with John that just finished up. Six episides at 20 minutes each, so its pretty much like hanging out with John Lurie for a couple hours on a tropical island & listening to him tell stories while he paints or has other little adventures.
  9. sveumrules
    Nico has 294 PAs at AA & 375 PAs career in the minors. He hit 222/312/259 (60 OPS+) over his 126 MLB PAs in 2020. Of course service time is always a factor, but it's not like this is a Kris Bryant situation.
  10. sveumrules
    Just as in the olden days of 2019 one would get out their prepaid parking pass or cash, so its ready to go when they get to the front of the line, now in 2021 one will pull up their parking pass on their phone, so its ready to go once they get to the front of the line.
  11. sveumrules
    With a week to go until Opening Day it looks like BPro has the Brewers projected to score the 16th most runs... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ While the ATC projections have us coming in 19th... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atc-2021-projected-standings-and-playoff-odds/
  12. sveumrules
    Before the 2016 season, the BF.Net Top 25 featured the following pitchers... Jorge Lopez (#3), Hader (#5), Medeiros (#8), Ponce (#10), Devin Williams (#12), Davies (#14), Diplan (#18), Kirby (#19) and Houser (#21). Brent Suter (#29), Freddy Peralta (#40), Brandon Woodruff (#42) didn't make the cut & Corbin Burnes was still a few months from being drafted. Just because the system only has two "name" pitching prospects doesn't mean that it won't continue to produce MLB caliber arms from the lower ranks. With over half the staff already filled with guys that graduated from the system & are under control for the foreseeable future, plus Stearns & company seeming to have demonstrated a knack for developing arms since their arrival, I think the long term outlook for the pitching staff is about as bright as its been in franchise history.
  13. sveumrules
    The ATC projected win totals were released today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atc-2021-projected-standings-and-playoff-odds/ Looks like that particular computer has the NLC shaking out something like... MIL 85 CIN 80 STL 76 CHI 75 PIT 65 Would definitely take that outcome.
  14. sveumrules
    Puig would seem to make sense with the White Sox having the whole Cuban connection going on.
  15. sveumrules
    Too bad for Eloy. Looking at the Sox prospect list I could see the Brewers maybe trying to get someone like Hunter Schryver or Vince Arobio for Avisail.
  16. sveumrules
    In 856 PAs at AAA between 2018-19 Tyrone posted a 101 wRC+. In 1,118 PAs at AA between 2015-17 Tyrone posted an 86 wRC+. Minor league wRC+ translates for league-wide offensive context, but does not adjust for home park. If you account for Tyrone's 2018-19 being in Colorado Springs he essentially has five years of below average offensive performance in the high minors at this point. That's the kind of performance that earns you another trip to AAA.
  17. sveumrules
    Over the 10 regular seasons from 2010-19, the Brewers saw a total of 431 left handed starters, or about 43 a year. Low was 34 in 2017, high was 50 in 2010.
  18. sveumrules
    Coming up on a hundred pages now & it looks like Hader will be a Milwaukee Brewer to open 2021. Gonna lock this bad boy up for now, but feel free to start a new thread brainstorming ideas for the deadline if anyone feels so inclined.
  19. sveumrules
    Kolten/Keston make an appearance in Ben Clemens Four Bold(ish) Predictions for the NL published at FanGraphs today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/four-boldish-predictions-for-the-national-league/
  20. sveumrules
    Besides the hundreds of guys like Urias during those 3 years who aren't good enough to stick. Urias has a 76 wRC+ the last three years compared to 65 for Arcia, the only thing Orlando has gotten is more opportunities to stick. There are 614 position players with at least 100 PAs over the last three seasons, Orlando ranks 519th in wRC+. If you lower it to 50 PAs Orlando comes in 550th of 686 by wRC+, so still not hundreds of players even with a PA threshold of September call-up.
  21. sveumrules
    Gunnar Hoglund could be someone to keep an eye on as an SEC pitcher with a track record of statistical success & a high spin heater. Got a little blurb at FanGraphs today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-scouting-notes-10-pack-3-16-2021/
  22. sveumrules
    01. Garrett Mitchell 02. Brice Turang 03. Aaron Ashby 04. Ethan Small 05. Alec Bettinger 06. Mario Feliciano 07. Hedbert Perez 08. Tristen Lutz 09. Eduardo Garcia 10. Antoine Kelly 11. Clayton Andrews 12. Freddy Zamora 13. Corey Ray 14. Jeferson Quero 15. Bowden Francis 16. Max Lazar 17. Payton Henry 18. Noah Zavolas 19. Jackson Chourio 20. David Hamilton 21. Dylan File 22. Luis Medina 23. Carlos Rodriguez 24. Joe Gray Jr. 25. Micah Bello
  23. sveumrules
    Given his combination of past injury history, throwing really really hard & the torque required for his change up, Devin might be a slightly higher injury risk, but I wouldn't say he is significantly higher than any other pitcher. There's just so much that's impossible to know. A lot of people thought Chris Sale would never last & eventually he didn't, but before that he threw the 6th most innings & put up the 3rd highest WAR in all of MLB over seven seasons from 2012-18. With how volatile relievers are my median expectation for Williams six remaining years of team control would be four seasons around 60-70 IP with like a 140 ERA+, one year thats kinda fair to middling & one year that's lost to injury/underperformance.
  24. sveumrules
    I'd imagine Wander starts off in the minors & assuming he continues to rake (in 2019 he slashed 327/398/487 with 83 BB vs 54 K as an 18 year year old in A/A+) gets called up sometime after the Super Two deadline has passed.
  25. sveumrules
    FanGraphs had this in his 2019 prospect write up... "Defensively, he’s perfectly fine at third base and in the outfield corners, and fringy at second base; we’d rather not have him play shortstop."
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