sveumrules

I don't necessarily disagree that the NL Central will likely be a four team race again in 2021, but what talent are the Brewers hemorrhaging?

I think there are a lot of people that don’t understand or don’t agree with how the Packers draft and equate that to ‘not prioritizing winning’ or whatever that means. Not acknowledging, of course, that the reason the Packers have had nearly three decades of high-level sustained success is that they’re playing chess while some teams staple their head to the game table. That, and having Favre and Rodgers as their quarterbacks. Any team that wanted Favre could have traded for him, Ron Wolf actually did. If BF.net existed at the time I'd imagine most of the reactions would have been, "why did they trade a 1st rounder for a 3rd string QB when we still have Majik?!?!" 21 teams could have drafted Rodgers, the Cowboys & Vikings had two chances each, the Packers pulled the trigger & there were plenty of haters, "why draft a QB when you already have an HOF QB?!?!" In both instances the Packers FO had much better foresight than their own fans & other NFL organizations.

New England has won three of the last ten Super Bowls, they've clearly been the best team of the last decade. The other teams to win a Super Bowl in the last ten tears are KC, PHI, DEN, SEA, BAL, NYG & GB. Out of those teams, the only one I'd put on the same level as the Packers for the last decade is SEA, so...2nd or 3rd best team of the last ten years? Depends on what your measuring stick is. Seattle has played in multiple Super Bowls and won one. Denver has played in multiple Super Bowls and won one. San Francisco is not a team you mentioned, yet they have played in 2 Super Bowls the last 10 years. Atlanta, Carolina, Rams, have all played in the Super Bowl over that time frame. I enjoy the fact that we typically find regular season success, but to say 10 years without a Super Bowl appearance now seems insufficient in comparison to our opportunities seems like a fair statement, I think. Seattle made it to two Super Bowls, though if Bostick does his job, GB probably makes it to one of those SBs instead. For the decade, GB won 102 games & made the playoffs 8 times compared to 100 wins & 8 playoff appearances for SEA. Head to head is 4-4 for the decade. I'd put SEA 2nd/GB 3rd, but again the margin is essentially one botched on side kick. DEN won 89 games & made 5 playoffs, SF won 80 games & made 4 playoffs, ATL won 89 games & made 5 playoffs, CAR won 78 games & made 4 playoffs, LA won 73 games & made 2 playoffs. Those teams all look to be a clear notch below SEA/GB to me.

As well they should. They spent their first three picks on players that will do next to nothing to help them win now. The Packers have stockpiled lots of regular season wins the past 10 years. Where has it gotten them? New England has won three of the last ten Super Bowls, they've clearly been the best team of the last decade. The other teams to win a Super Bowl in the last ten tears are KC, PHI, DEN, SEA, BAL, NYG & GB. Out of those teams, the only one I'd put on the same level as the Packers for the last decade is SEA, so...2nd or 3rd best team of the last ten years?

So we could get the same production cheaper without being locked in as long? It's possible. All we'd have to do is clear Cain's salary & acquire someone who projects similarly. Given the circumstances, that seems unlikely, so I thought it might be more useful to try & figure out what Lorenzo's 2021 could maybe look like. If he does end up coming in around 2 WAR that would be pretty much right in line with his salary.

I'm gonna go ahead & guess that someone other than Woj breaks the official news.

Entering 2020 Cain was projected for a 92 OPS+, I'd imagine that will fall slightly just on account of getting a year older. Looking back on recent seasons for CF with plus defense & offense in that neighborhood I found... 2019 Victor Robles | 91 wRC+ | +8.5 DEF | 2.5 WAR 2018 Ender Inciarte | 90 wRC+ | +9.5 DEF | 3.0 WAR 2018 Jackie Bradley Jr | 90 wRC+ | +10.1 DEF | 2.8 WAR 2017 Byron Buxton | 92 wRC+ | +12.0 DEF | 3.6 WAR 2017 Kevin Pillar | 86 wRC+ | +7.7 DEF | 2.0 WAR 2017 Manuel Margot | 90 wRC+ | +7.8 DEF | 1.9 WAR 2016 Leonys Martin | 89 wRC+ | +6.4 DEF | 2.4 WAR ...if Cain is healthy for 2021, I'd imagine his season ends up looking something like those.

Eagles run for 150, Packers win 34-13.

Two more teams - the Nationals & Indians - were dropped this week, making it an even baker's dozen... Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Turner (259) 106 | 157 | 122 (+16) Cabrera (213) 105 | 98 | 99 (-6) Soto (196) 149 | 212 | 160 (+11) Robles (189) 96 | 63 | 90 (-6) Eaton (176) 104 | 76 | 96 (-8) Thames (140) 115 | 65 | 98 (-17) Garcia (139) 59 | 78 | 71 (+12) Suzuki (129) 98 | 99 | 95 (-3) Kieboom (122) 91 | 54 | 90 (-1) Gomes (119) 81 | 107 | 89 (+8) Kendrick (100) 105 | 87 | 102 (-3) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Lindor (266) 126 | 102 | 122 (-4) Hernandez (261) 91 | 106 | 91 (0) Santana (255) 115 | 91 | 110 (-5) Ramirez (254) 130 | 163 | 143 (+13) Reyes (241) 114 | 113 | 112 (-2) Naquin (141) 93 | 68 | 82 (-11) DeShields (120) 65 | 71 | 69 (+4) Perez (110) 79 | 33 | 68 (-11) That brings us up to 132 batters projected for 2021 (out of 310) that had at least 100 PAs in 2020. The margins by which their OPS+ projections have shifted are as follows... 0-4%: 53 5-9%: 39 10-14%: 26 15-19%: 10 20+%: 4

My question is how long has he been holding on to that word to use?... He actually uses it somewhat regularly. I am a fan. Without searching I think I can remember 3 fairly recent uses of this word in his posts. To date I haven't been baller enough to work it into my own conversations but it is a goal. Haha. I definitely try to drop a "cromulent" or "a couple two tree" into the conversation every now & again.

What do you think reality is? In his lone full season, 2019, he posted a 111 OPS+. Entering 2020 he was projected for a 121 OPS+. He posted a 98 OPS+ in 2020, but it was only 136 PAs, he was unlucky by xwOBA & his walk/K rates were steady so I don't see his projection going down too much for 2021, maybe to around a 115 OPS+. For reference, here are league average 1B/DH wRC+ the last three years... 1B | 2018: 108 | 2019 : 111 | 2020: 108 DH | 2018: 110 | 2019: 104 | 2020: 97

Or, they wanted the opportunity to evaluate him at a closer level right now, gave up little to do so, and can cut him in the spring and only pay a few hundred K of his salary if they don't like what they see.... Exactly, but the Brewers could have done the same thing: rendered him a a contract and see how spring training went and then cut him if they didn’t like what they see. My point is: by any metric Knebel was a fantastic pitcher for the Brewers, and they swapped him off to the competition in a cost cutting move. If that is a harbinger of things to come, there maybe a lot of aging bandaids in the daily lineup again come 2021 The Brewers could have done the same thing, sure, but given their bullpen depth without Corey & their budgetary situation, they likely thought those funds would be better allocated towards a position of more pressing need. If they had the Dodgers budget they may have behaved otherwise. Tendering Knebel gives them even less to spend on band aids.

In 2019 there were only three AL teams who exceeded 1.6 WAR from their DH, in 2018 there were seven, in 2017 there were two, in 2016 there were five. If there is a DH in the NL & the Brewers get around 1.5 WAR that will likely be enough to crack the top ten, which would be pretty good for 1.4 million dollars. During Stearns & company's tenure Brewers batters have posted a dead nuts even 100 wRC+ & are 15th in WAR, you can't get any average-er. It hasn't stopped them from winning the 11th most games. I'd love to have a roster full of good players, but the reality of MLB economics make it difficult for an organization like Milwaukee to do that. Stearns & company have a pretty good track record of countering that reality by trying to extract some value from all 26 roster spots & this move seems to fit that strategy.

Puk just had shoulder surgery. They're saying should be ready for ST, but after missing 2018 with TJ, only throwing 36 IP in 2019 & then being shut down multiple times in 2020 before having the surgery seems like more risk than I'd prefer in a Hader headliner.

In his lone full season he posted a 111 wRC+ & 1.6 WAR. If he can approximate those numbers in 2021 it would be perfectly cromulent production for 1.4 million dollars.

Something Renato/Maikel have in common is that they both got "lucky" in 2020 based on expected wOBA. Nunez was at .301 xwOBA vs .341 actual, 29th "luckiest" out of 257 qualifiers & Maikel was at .296 xwOBA vs .324 actual, 52nd "luckiest". Franco was projected at 92 OPS+ entering 2020, posted a 109 OPS+ in 243 PAs, but only saw his OPS+ projection rise to 95 for 2021. Nunez was projected at 103 OPS+ entering 2020 & posted a 121 OPS+ in 216 PAs. The Orioles ZiPS aren't out yet, but given Renato's OPS+ was even "luckier" than Maikel's, I wouldn't expect his projection to go up more than a couple two tree points. For reference, Smoak/Gyorko were projected at 106/98 entering 2020, so essentially a wash. Nunez/Franco are younger, with more upside on offense, but probably also a lower defensive floor, though Maikel has graded out okay (-2 DRS, +1.2 UZR) in 1359 innings from 2019-20 after starting out his career considerably worse afield.

Feliciano only has 3 games at AA. I can't imagine there are too many MLB catchers with such little experience in the high minors. The only one I could think of is Joey Bart, who only had 22 games at AA, but it took the pandemic cancelling MiLB & Buster Posey opting out for him to make the jump & post a 69 OPS+ with a 41/3 K/BB ratio in 111 PAs. He's also a #2 pick, a couple years older than Mario & generally a more highly regarded prospect, for whatever that is or isn't worth. Given we're likely to project around league average at C next year & how much of a premium the FO places on team control, I'd guess Mario opens the season in AA with a chance to move up depending on performance, injury, etc.

Yeah. SS has definitely been the biggest organizational black hole since Stearns & company took over. Given the circumstances I can kind of understand how Arcia has gotten the leash he has. 2016 was the get your feet wet year. 2017 was perfectly cromulent (90 OPS+, 2.2 WAR). 2018 was bad, but he was only 23 & ended the season strong. 2019 was worse so they brought in Urias for 2020, but he broke his hamate & got the covid.

Vogelbach should be an interesting decision. That 162 OPS+ sure was shiny, but it was only 67 PAs. He also sported a 31 OPS+ in 69 PAs with SEA/TOR. Add it all up & you get a 98 OPS+ in 136 PAs on the season. Coming into 2020, ZiPS had him projected for a 121 OPS+, which I would guess will likely slide some for 2021, down to maybe around 115. It's one thing to get bad defense at 1B with a 143 OPS+ like Prince had, but it hurts a lot more when that OPS+ is 25-30 points lower. At the same time, we don't really have any other options on hand & his Arby's estimate is only around 1-2 million, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers tender him. Then again, with how much Stearns & company value positional flexibility, the uncertainty over the DH and limited funds to work with - there are some factors working against him.

In addition to the Reds - the Mets & Rockies have also been released recently, bringing it up to eleven teams total, over a third of the league. Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Castellanos (242) 119 | 102 | 109 (-10) Suarez (231) 122 | 102 | 115 (-7) Votto (223) 114 | 110 | 92 (-22) Akiyama (183) 98 | 76 | 90 (-8) Winker (183) 112 | 142 | 114 (+2) Mooooose (163) 118 | 108 | 109 (-9) Galvis (159) 80 | 86 | 77 (-3) Barnhart (110) 89 | 77 | 83 (-6) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Alonso (239) 139 | 123 | 132 (-7) Conforto (233) 130 | 156 | 130 (0) Davis (229) 111 | 112 | 108 (-3) Nimmo (225) 114 | 146 | 122 (+8) McNeil (209) 125 | 131 | 125 (0) Smith (199) 95 | 169 | 117 (+22) Cano (182) 95 | 144 | 99 (+4) Ramos (155) 102 | 88 | 91 (-11) Rosario (147) 98 | 76 | 92 (-6) Gimenez (132) 66 | 102 | 80 (+14) Player (2020 PAs) 2020 ZiPS OPS+ | 2020 actual OPS+ | 2021 ZiPS OPS+ (ZiPS change) Story (259) 113 | 118 | 110 (-3) Blackmon (247) 112 | 103 | 106 (-6) Pillar (223) 85 | 107 | 88 (+3) Tapia (206) 88 | 96 | 91 (+3) Arenado (201) 126 | 84 | 117 (-9) McMahon (193) 91 | 79 | 92 (+1) Hampson (184) 77 | 68 | 77 (0) Murphy (132) 101 | 54 | 86 (-15) Kemp (132) 88 | 88 | 91 (+3) Hilliard (114) 75 | 76 | 77 (+2) Wolters (109) 66 | 41 | 59 (-7) Fuentes (103) 75 | 90 | 77 (+2) Dahl (99) 104 | 19 | 101 (-3) That brings us up to 113 batters projected for 2021 (out of 310) that had at least 100 PAs in 2020. The margins by which their OPS+ projections have shifted are as follows... 0-4%: 46 5-9%: 34 10-14%: 21 15-19%: 8 20+%: 4

FanGraphs lists him with an option. I'd imagine he'll be catching wherever the Brewers AAA ends up next year (do we know where that is yet for sure, er no?)

Ted Davis calls Giannis "The Alphabet", so I hope so too.

Any statistic needs to be considered with a certain degree of context, some moreso than others. Which do you think are meaningless? All of them. An NFL season is such a small sample to begin with. Then you have games where the other team is real banged up, plays their best game, plays their worst game, etc. Extreme example is playing a team without a QB. But even a situation like playing the Bears without Hicks skews your offensive numbers, especially rushing. Most of all the though, game situation dictates so much. That entire 2nd half inflated the Beards offense and hammered the Packers defensive numbers. All because they were smart and sat some people. So you had Lancaster and Lowry in there rushing the passer. Due to the sample size of 16, all these things don't even out the way they do over the course of an NBA or MLB season. The Bears had 166 yards/10 points in the first half versus 156 yards/15 points in the 2nd half, five more points and ten less yards is hammering?

Here's the original Yelich Extension thread. I couldn't find any posts saying it was stupid to give him the extension with a global pandemic looming since it was sure to limit payroll in 2021 & maybe even beyond, so that position would seem to be benefitting from at least some degree of hindsight... viewtopic.php?f=63&t=39624&hilit=yelich+extended

Since becoming a full time OF in 2018 Castellanos has posted -24, -15 & -6 (in 57 games) defensive values per BRef WAR & -20.7, -12.6 & -5.7 (in 57 games) defensive values per FanGraphs WAR, that -8 projection might actually be a little light. His OPS+ marks the last three years have been 128, 122 (105 w/ DET, 153 w/CHI) & 102. Entering 2020 his ZiPS projected OPS+ was 119, though it dropped to 109 entering 2021. I'm guess the main thing driving that drop is a 7% jump in K rate from 21.5% in 2019 to 28.5% in 2020, though it looks like his exit velocity (88.9 MPH to 91.0 MPH) and barrel % (10.1 to 16.0) both rose in 2020. Add it all up and the -.032 differential between his .356 expected wOBA & .324 actual wOBA was the 20th largest of 257 qualifiers, so in that regard he was among the more "unlucky" batters last season. I'd probably take the over on a 109 OPS+, but the under on the -8 defense for Castellanos in 2021.