sveumrules

Cloud that rained on me walking to the stadium.

I’ll be there tonight, tomorrow and Thursday. Jesus Made me do it. (Peña & Dinges too)

Yeah, first 16 starts Skenes averaged 6.4 IP and 98.7 pitches. Over his last eight starts (beginning with the aforementioned game against the Brewers) he has averaged 5.3 IP and 87.3 pitches per start. Pirates are also just 12 W - 12 L in his starts this year, largely on account of only scoring 3.6 runs per game with Skenes on the mound.

Was perusing the NL position player leaderboard on FanGraphs, saw two guys right next to each other… 295/395/448 (142 wRC+) 12.7 BB% | 22.5 K% +0.6 BsR | +3.4 DEF over 249 PA for 3.1 WAR 248/320/576 (142 wRC+) 6.6 BB% | 28.6 K% -4.0 BsR | -1.6 DEF over 437 PA for 3.1 WAR Of course the top one is Isaac Collins and the other one is Eugenio Suarez with ARI before being traded.

He’s a free agent after the season.

Looks like the Brewers (39 W - 35 L) were still 6.5 games back of the Cubs (45 W - 28 L) as late as June 17th. Since then the Brewers have gone 34 W - 9 L versus 22 W - 22 L for the Cubs to swing things 12.5 games.

Oh, I’m sure the Mets have plenty of What Ifs right now.

Believe BRef has what you’re looking for. Brewers were tied with Miami at 31 reach on errors before tonight. That same leaderboard also showing Milwaukee with an MLB best 34 RS% (percentage of base runners who eventually score).

How do you know Hoskins normally would be back? You have a better grasp on Rhys health situation than the Brewers medical staff? Henderson had to catch a ride to the game with his parents he got the call so late. If there were some grand plan to have Misio milk things for a stint they probably would have taken care of those logistics sooner. Woodruff intentionally wanted to slow roll things to hit the ground running in MLB, then got hit with flukey injuries along the way setting things back further. Of course a liner to the elbow will delay things. Yes, Logan has a flexor strain. There is no angle because the Brewers have a stretch of 19 games in 18 days so putting another pitcher on the IL for no reason doesn’t really make much sense. A young pitcher 20 IP over his career high having a minor injury is something that happens in baseball. There was no conspiracy with Hiura either, he couldn’t hit the high heat and still can’t.

For real, put that thing in the Louvre…or a Tom Emanski instructional video.

My best guess at the sequence of events is the mutual option will be declined and Woody will become an FA with a QO attached. He’ll hopefully hit the market healthy and coming off some nice postseason starts with an agreement to give the Brewers a chance to match or get close to wherever the high bid ends up. Will definitely be interesting to see how they navigate Woody’s likely FA with possible extensions for Freddy and Misio.

Picked up tickets for Tue / Wed / Thu a couple two tree days ago and pickings were already quite a bit slimmer than normal, at least in the sections around home plate.

Yeah, Rhys last game was July 5th and the Brewers are 21 W - 4 L (.840 W%) since July 6th.

Here's a couple ways of looking at it... The Brewers currently have 70 Wins. The six pitchers in the rotation - Freddy, Quintana, Priester, Woodruff, Henderson and Misio - have a combined team record of 56 W - 23 L (.709 W%) in their outings. If they keep that pace up for the rest of the year that would be another 34 wins. Or, going back to the April calendar flip the Brewers have played to a .636 W% after losing their first four games. Play to that pace the rest of the year and it would be another 30 or 31 wins.

No worries, I thought maybe there was some newfandangled third WAR out there I didn’t know about. Pretty sure BPro has their own version too based on their “deserved” stats, but I’ve never dabbled much there.

Where are you seeing -0.7 WAR? I’ve got -0.4 on BRef and 0.1 on FanGraphs? Either way, Arby is a little more old school and tends to put more weight on the baseball card stats. Like Vaughn put up 0.2 WAR on BRef and -0.1 on FanGraphs last year but still got almost $6M in Arby because he had a more respectable 19 HR | 70 RBI.

Seeing as this is the Optimism Thread I’d have to say somewhere around 100%.

Another pretty big difference is that Priester has a 57.8% ground ball rate (5th among 88 pitchers min. 100 IP this year). Lauer was more of a fly ball pitcher with a 41.4% fly ball rate that ranked 31st of 129 pitchers with at least 100 IP in 2021. Eric only induced ground balls at a 35.8% clip that ranked 107th. Younger righty ground ball specialist vs older lefty fly ball guy, sounds like the only thing they really have in common is being Brewers pitchers acquired via trade.

Jose Quintana versus Spencer Strider has got to be one of the better "different ways to the same spot" pitching match ups you could get. Both are among 83 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 2022, here are some of their rankings... Strider (405 IP | 81st) 159 K+ (1st) | 100 BB+ (64th) | 78 HR+ (14th) 83 AVG+ (2nd) | 84 WHIP+ (7th) | 101 LOB+ (48th) 68 FIP- (2nd) | 83 ERA- (16th) 11.4 fWAR (16th) | 8.9 rWAR (39th) Quintana (499 IP | 44th) 84 K+ (69th) | 97 BB+ (59th) | 75 HR+ (13th) 100 AVG+ (39th) | 98 WHIP+ (47th) | 105 LOB+ (14th) 97 FIP- (47th) | 84 ERA- (17th) 7.0 fWAR (48th) | 10.1 rWAR (32nd) So Strider strikes out more batters than anyone, and is the second hardest to get a hit off of, yet his run prevention is barely better than Quintana who is pretty much average or below at everything across the board except limiting home runs and stranding base runners. Believe this largely a function of Strider being so much worse out of the stretch versus the wind up. Couldn't find specific splits, but for his career he's allowed an OPS 111 points higher with runners on versus bases empty. League average this year is an OPS 29 points higher with runners on versus bases empty. For Quintana's career he's allowed an OPS one point higher with runners on versus bases empty. Put it all together and of the 83 pitchers with at least 400 IP on that 2022-now leaderboard Quintana's -0.52 gap between his ERA and FIP is tied for the best right way differential while Strider's +0.74 gap is the largest in the wrong direction.

Would you consider Ortiz, Hall and Durbin quality players? We aren’t getting much more in a hypothetical Peralta trade than we did in the actual Burnes / Williams deals.

Even if Peralta is traded in the offseason all of Priester, Misio, Henderson, Patrick, Myers, and Gasser would be ahead of Rodriguez in the pecking order. Coleman Crow should get added to the 40 Man this offseason too. Given how much the Brewers emphasize depth I’d imagine at least one (or maybe even both) of Peralta / Woodruff will be back next year depending how things shake out twixt now & then.

I'm pulling from FanGraphs. Ortiz has negative WAR this year at BRef because they use Defensive Runs Saved as their fielding input and DRS says Joey has been a -3 defender at SS. Ortiz has positive WAR this year at FanGraphs because they use StatCast's Fielding Run Value as their fielding input and FRV says Joey has been a +5 defender at SS. From watching the games which system do you believe is doing a better job of capturing Joey's defensive value?

Burnes put up 4.6 rWAR in his lone Baltimore season. Ortiz is up to 3.9 WAR and Hall is at 0.5 rWAR so far with the Brewers. They have already almost equaled Burnes production with another eight years of combined team control remaining. Shedding Burnes salary was also probably needed to accommodate Hoskins on the payroll last year.

The Brewers were 2.5 games behind the Cubs going into play of July 2nd when Seigler made his first start at 3B. His play hasn't cost the team anything. They are 8 W - 1 L with a +47 run differential in his nine games started at 3B.

A 3.23 FIP is still perfectly fine and shakes out to a 76 FIP-, but its also a big step back from the 2.24 FIP | 53 FIP- that Devin posted from 2020-24 with the Brewers.