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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Last year Jose Quintana put up a 95 ERA- | 113 FIP- and signed for $4.25M in March. This year he has an 86 ERA- | 117 FIP- so far. Quintana would jump at a QO so fast he’d probably pull a hammy in the process.
  2. sveumrules
    They improved their roster at the deadline in 2019, 2021, 2023, and 2024 and still didn't win a playoff series in any of those years either.
  3. sveumrules
    The Padres have essentially been all in since 2021, I'm guessing their fans don't feel much different today than they have for most of the last five years.
  4. sveumrules
    I can imagine scenarios where they do nothing further and hold onto the #1 spot. I can imagine scenarios where they do nothing further and lose the #1 spot. I can imagine scenarios where they do something further and hold onto the #1 spot. I can imagine scenarios where they do something further and lose the #1 spot. Making or not making a move doesn't guarantee anything. Would I prefer they make a move or two to upgrade around the margins? Of course. But if they don't, Priester and Vaughn have already been more impactful than just about anyone they could realistically acquire at the deadline so I won't sweat it too much and just continue enjoying the season.
  5. sveumrules
    Shortstop, sure. Durbin is 12th in MLB with 1.6 WAR as a third baseman though. He's also been pretty clutch with his +1.43 WPA second on the team behind only Babe Vaughn (+1.88) and just ahead of Chourio (+1.11) so far this year, For someone that was hailed by many around here as "NOT A 3B" when acquired he has put up +7 DRS and +2 FRV at the hot corner.
  6. sveumrules
    Considering the board went into meltdown mode when we traded Williams for Durbin, and again when we traded for Priester, and then again when all we got back for Civale was Vaughn...I'll take it as a good sign if it happens again today.
  7. sveumrules
    Looks like one of the "others" in the Bednar deal is outfielder Brian Sanchez, who we originally traded along with Jace Avina to NYY for Jake Bauers. Sanchez has done nothing but hit all through the minors - 128 wRC+ in DSL, 141 wRC+ in FSL, 129 wRC+ in A ball. After a somewhat down year last year for Avina (105 wRC+ in A+) he has bounced back for a combined 159 wRC+ between A+/AA this year.
  8. sveumrules
    Ortiz has a -0.5 bWAR because DRS has judged him as a -5 defender at SS. Ortiz has a 0.5 fWAR because FRV has judged him as a +5 defender at SS. From watching the games I think FRV has done a better job of capturing Joey's defense this year, so I tend to come down on the side of the positive valuation he has on FanGraphs.
  9. sveumrules
    The Luis Garcia Jr with -26 DRS | -11 FRV at 2B and -21 DRS | -15 FRV at SS for his career? Can't see the Brewers giving up Myers and his three extra years of team control for an infielder who can't field, or run the bases (-3.6 BsR career), or take a walk (4.7 BB% career), or really hit either (93 wRC+). What box is LGJ checking for you?
  10. sveumrules
    Kwan has 2.7 fWAR | 3.1 bWAR over his first 102 games this year. Would be hard for him to match that same production over the Brewers last 54 games after the deadline. Hard truth of the deadline is even the best player will be lucky to net you one or two wins, which is why the Brewers already getting about four wins from Priester and Vaughn puts them far out in front of the pack before doing anything today. Juan Soto himself only put up 1.2 fWAR | 1.7 bWAR with SD after the deadline.
  11. sveumrules
    re: Logan's recent struggles... Henderson got bombed for 5 ER in his first AAA start, but after that he locked in from April 3rd through June 13th pitching 39 IP in AAA with a 0.92 ERA | 2.60 FIP to go along with his 21 IP of 1.71 ERA | 3.05 FIP work in MLB during that same stretch. Since June 13th? 34 IP of 5.77 ERA | 4.95 FIP.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, I'd guess McGee is just the placeholder until Cortes comes up at this point. Maybe they'd consider Henderson for the extra spot in September or if needed between now and then, but with guys like Myers, Patrick, Payamps, maybe even Gasser by then among the other internal options and Logan struggling of late as he's already 17 IP over his previous career high I would think it's kind of a long shot we see him in Milwaukee again this year.
  13. sveumrules
    Splits for current bullpen look like this... Megill (37 IP) 54 ERA- | 64 FIP- | +1.14 WPA Uribe (51 IP) 52 ERA- | 79 FIP- | +0.90 WPA Koenig (43 IP) 91 ERA- | 90 FIP- | +0.83 WPA Hall (28 IP) 47 ERA- | 91 FIP- | +0.68 WPA Ashby (30 IP) 50 ERA- | 70 FIP- | +0.57 WPA Anderson (51 IP) 77 ERA- | 93 FIP- | +0.41 WPA Mears (40 IP) 71 ERA- | 69 FIP- | +0.11 WPA McGee (7 IP) 63 ERA- | 59 FIP- | +0.01 WPA Kind of hard to complain too much when you're eight of eight across the board on run prevention, peripherals and WPA. Obviously McGee is a tiny low leverage sample out of the shuttle spot, but the other seven regulars have been pretty solid all year. Mears WPA was higher a week ago, but -0.58 between his 07/22 and 07/25 outings knocked him down a bit. Overall the bullpen's +2.82 WPA is 11th in MLB this year, well behind the historic +24.87 WPA they posted from 2023-24, but a lot of that is a function of the rotation (+5.62 WPA | 4th) and lineup (+2.06 WPA | 6th) chipping in far more than they did from 2023-24 with a more middling +2.89 WPA (14th) from the rotation and -4.76 WPA (16th) from the lineup the last two years.
  14. sveumrules
    The Brewers 102 wRC+ vs LHP (10th in MLB) so far this year is pretty remarkable given Yelich (136 PA of 74 wRC+) and Turang (126 PA of 87 wRC+) are top two on the team in plate appearances versus southpaws. No matter, the Brewers 21 W - 10 L record vs LH starters is best in MLB, half game ahead of DET. Would imagine Jansen (90 PA of 129 wRC+) will be either DH-ing or catching today with William in the opposite spot. Collins (92 PA of 115 wRC+) and Sal (124 PA of 118 wRC+) have been good vs LHP this year and Blake (221 PA of 90 wRC+) has been fine for his career. My totally futile lineup guess,,, Sal RF Durbin 3B Contreras C Vaughn 1B Collins LF Jansen DH Perkins CF Monasterio 2B Joey SS
  15. sveumrules
    Going back to last year Ashby is one of 296 relievers with at least 40 IP, here are some of his ranks... 17 HR+ (3rd) | 50 FIP- (3rd) | 42 ERA- (5th) | 144 GB+ (7th) | 143 K+ (22nd) On a rate basis he's been elite, all he's missing is volume at only 47 IP. Even his 89 BB+ is better than average and ranks 83rd of those 296.
  16. sveumrules
    One big difference between Small and Henderson is age. Small was already 24 when he posted his shiny 1.98 ERA (but with a 3.44 FIP and 4.30 xFIP) over 77 IP at AA/AAA in 2021. Henderson was only 22 last year when he put up a 3.32 ERA | 3.66 FIP | 3.26 xFIP over 81 IP between AA/AAA last year. The other huge difference is command. Small had a 12.7% walk rate with the Brewers from 2021-23, Henderson has posted a 6.2% walk rate the last two years.
  17. sveumrules
    Cortes came over from the Yankees along with Caleb Durbin. I don’t think anyone was necessarily tricked as both teams were aware of the involved players strengths, weaknesses, and range of possible outcomes.
  18. sveumrules
    Setting themselves up for another year with the youngest pitchers in the ACL... 2021 Brewers Gold 19.2 Brewers Blue 19.9 Rangers 19.9 2022 Brewers Blue 19.8 Brewers Gold 19.9 Angels 20.3 2023 Mariners 20.6 Brewers 20.7 DBacks Red 20.7 2024 Brewers 19.9 Dodgers 20.2 Guardians 20.3 2025 Brewers 19.3 Angels 20.6 DBacks 20.7
  19. sveumrules
    Couple losses On The Island with DSL Blue losing 15-2 and DSL Gold falling 8-3 in ten innings. Some highlights perusing the boxes... Moises Polanco (two singles, stolen base) Frandy LaFond (single, two walks, stolen base) Juan Martinez (two doubles) Isais Chavez (single, two walks, stolen base) Francis Sosa (double) Cristian Montilla (two singles) Christopher Acosta (single, walk) Alexander Frias (single, walk) Yoneiker Lugo (single, walk) Albert Vargas (3 IP | 0 R | 3 H | 0 BB | 1 K)
  20. sveumrules
    Lawlar hasn't played in a month on account of a hamstring and only has 84 games | 376 PA going back to last year on account of various injuries. Might be hard to count on him being an everyday guy right out of the gate. Small samples of course, but some shades of Coby Mayo in the early going too... Mayo AAA career 852 PA of 128 wRC+ (24.9 K%) Lawlar AAA career 388 PA of 139 wRC+ (22.9 K%) Mayo MLB career 138 PA of 42 wRC+ (31.9 K%) Lawlar MLB career 56 PA of -23 wRC+ (35.7 K%)
  21. sveumrules
    Yeah, that's why I said Reds version hopefully. From 2017-18 there were 26 players that got at least 500 PA at second base. Among those 26 players Scooter ranked 3rd with a 129 wRC+ and 5th with 6.0 WAR. In a macro sense its the same kind of profile, questionable second base defender whose bat is going to have to carry the profile.
  22. sveumrules
    Chad Patrick won the International League Triple Crown last year. He had a 62 ERA- and 85 FIP- over 136 IP. Carlos Rodriguez was much closer to average with a 96 ERA- | 100 FIP- over his 129 innings in 2024. I'd say one of those guys looked like he was ready for MLB to start the season and the other needed another year in AAA to figure some stuff out.
  23. sveumrules
    Everyone loves comparing current Brewers prospects to former Brewers players so I'll throw out Scooter Gennett (Reds version though hopefully) for an Adamczewski comp.
  24. sveumrules
    Player has to be on the team all year to get a QO so guys traded at the deadline are disqualified.
  25. sveumrules
    It would be pretty out of character for the Brewers to send out 24 years of team control for two rentals. If they were trading a package like that I'd hope it would be for someone with multiple years of team control remaining.
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