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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Rizzo and Martinez both canned in Washington a week before they have the #1 pick in the draft. Since winning the WS in 2019 they have gone 325 W - 472 L, only the Rockies at 308 W - 488 L have been worse.
  2. sveumrules
    Brian Fitzpatrick had a couple scoreless frames for Biloxi putting him at 6 IP of 0 ER | 5 H | 1 BB | 11 K work since coming back off the IL a couple weeks ago. Small samples all around, but out of 74 Brewers minor league pitchers with at least 20 IP so far he’s at a 1.73 ERA (5th) | 2.43 FIP (5th) | 2.84 xFIP (4th).
  3. sveumrules
    Truly wild times. Patrick currently leads all rookie pitchers with 2.1 rWAR | 2.0 fWAR and he’s about to be bumped out. Logan Henderson is one of only five rookie pitchers with at least 1.0 rWAR this year, and he’s just chilling in AAA building innings and working on tertiary pitches. Only Skenes & Imanaga topped Tobias Myers and his 3.4 rWAR among rookie pitchers last year. Tobias is now at 58 IP of fairly dominant 65 ERA- | 77 FIP- work in Nashville just waiting for a spot to open up. We went 5 W - 0 L while Bob Gas threw 28 IP of 63 ERA- | 84 FIP- work last year. Maybe not quite an ace up the sleeve, but for something like the 10th starter on the depth chart once he returns from injury? That’s pretty good.
  4. sveumrules
    ACL Brewers go on to win 7-4 with four straight walks & an Adamczewski sac fly adding two runs in the seventh, then a two RBI Engel Paulino double in the eighth.
  5. sveumrules
    Peralta’s option is only for $8M next year, Brewers can afford that. Peralta would probably want $100M plus on an extension, Brewers can afford that too. The question is does it make sense for a payroll limited team to spend that much on a pitcher in his thirties? As much as I love Freddy, the answer to that question is probably not, so my best guess is they pick up the option, let him pitch through 2026, give him a QO, and let him sign with the highest bidder.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, I figured they were due for a clunker after the banner year in 2024, but even in a clunker scenario I thought one of Antunez or Fenelon (plus at least one random kid no one ever heard of) would be putting up solidly above average statistical seasons.
  7. sveumrules
    Enderson Mercado went for 1 R | 2 H | 1 BB | 5 K over four innings on the Arizona Complex before Nick Merkel worked a 3U3D fifth. Zona Crew has picked up three runs top six with a Kevin Ereu single, Engel Paulino walk (wild pitch), Josh Adamczewski ROE, and Frederi Montero double. Luis Corobo walk sets up two on, two out for Demetrio Nadal.
  8. sveumrules
    DSL Gold lost 6-2 in the completion of a previously suspended game. Isais Chavez (double), Christopher Acosta (triple), and Francis Sosa (home run) joined Juan Martinez (single) in hitting for the team cycle. Linbel Jimenez struck out four of six batters faced (with a walk and two wild pitches for a little Island Intrigue). Currently trailing 3-1 bottom three in a scheduled seven inning affair for their second game of the day with the lone run scoring on a Pedro Tovar walk and stolen base then back to back throwing errors.
  9. sveumrules
    DSL Blue wins 9-1. Diustin Mayorquin followed Duran with five innings of 1 R | 4 H | 1 HBP | 3 K work before Jhosep Ospino struck out the side in the ninth, now up to 11 IP | 12 K without an ER for Jhosep. Johanderson Tarazona stayed hot with his first HR of the year (plus a single, walk, stolen bag & two RBI), Leonard Rijo chipped in two singles, a walk and two stolen bags while Jefer Lista & Moises Polanco each doubled (with Jefer also adding a walk and stolen base).
  10. sveumrules
    Coleman Crow was the return for Taylor/Houser to the Mets. First year back from TJ and has 43 IP of 2.51 ERA with 52 K / 8 BB under his belt so far at Biloxi. His 2.07 FIP is 5th lowest of 712 pitchers with at least 40 IP in the minors this year. Making his Nashville debut tonight.
  11. sveumrules
    Since Arnold took over in 2023 the Brewers have the third most wins in baseball. Here’s some things they’ve been the very best at… Limiting Runs (89 ERA-) Limiting Hits (94 AVG+) Stranding Runners (105 LOB+) Outs Above Average (91 OAA) ERA-FIP Gap (-0.45 runs) Bullpen Leverage (+25.79 WPA) Base Running (+37.5 BsR) Rookie Position Players (13.7 WAR) Rookies Combined (22.1 WAR) That two weeks of lousy play in May were enough to spark this thread really speaks to how good of a job Arnold has done since taking the reins. Sure, it would be nice to still have Shane Smith in the system, but since April 1st the Brewers rotation has a 79 ERA- (1st), +5.73 WPA (3rd), and 10.3 rWAR (4th) so they’ve been quite alright without him. Complaints about the returns on Williams / Burnes (4.0 combined WAR) are starting to fall victim to math as well with Ortiz, Durbin, Hall and Cortes already at 4.4 WAR with like 15 years of team control remaining.
  12. sveumrules
    Ortiz bottomed out with a .432 OPS through his first 141 PAs this year. Over his last 148 PA prior to today (cool grand slam) he had a .701 OPS. Last year over 511 PA Ortiz hit for a .726 OPS. Some might call it cherry picking, others might call it regressing to the mean. Unless one believes Ortiz is a true talent .432 OPS hitter. The various publicly available projection systems see him as something like a .658 to .694 OPS hitter rest of season, much closer to his recent level of production than his whole season .569 OPS.
  13. sveumrules
    Good observation. KC affiliate has 35 sac bunts, BAL affiliate has 26, then a big drop off down to the TB affiliate in 3rd with 12. Howzit workin? KC affiliate has 330 R (8th of 12 teams), BAL affiliate has 299 R (11th). On the flip side, Mudcats are the only team in the league with zero sac bunts all year and their 400 R are two dozen ahead of 2nd place.
  14. sveumrules
    Third base has been in a little bit of a slump leaguewide the last few years. In order, from 2012-19 the hot corner hit 105, 103, 101, 106, 107, 103, 106, and 107 wRC+. This is what most people think of when they think of a "third baseman". They kept it up for a couple years after the pandemic with a 100 and 105 wRC+ in 2021 and 2022. Last three years though? 96 wRC+ in 2023, 97 wRC+ in 2024, and a 99 wRC+ so far in 2025.
  15. sveumrules
    29 career bases loaded plate appearances and Joey has two singles, two sac flies, and three walks. Today was his second double play. Definitely not very good (but yeah, we’ll let it slide for today with the HR and nice plays in the field)
  16. sveumrules
    Looks like Frelick to leadoff was June 12th, since then the Brewers have a 136 wRC+ (2nd) and 90 R (1st) with a 10 W - 3 L record so it’s definitely been working (even if its ultimately unsustainable long term) Hoskins (50 PA of 79 wRC+) has been the only bad regular during the stretch, Chourio has been more frustrating (61 PA of 104 wRC+) than bad, but after that the regulars are at… Contreras (55 PA of 116 wRC+), Ortiz (49 PA of 123 wRC+), Frelick (62 PA of 127 wRC+), Turang (55 PA of 151 wRC+), Durbin (52 PA of 167 wRC+), Collins (50 PA of 178 wRC+), and Yelich (57 PA of 193 wRC+). Pretty fun couple weeks either way.
  17. sveumrules
    Megill (27 IP) 63 ERA- | 66 FIP- | +0.30 WPA Anderson (40 IP) 76 ERA- | 96 FIP- | +0.33 WPA Uribe (39 IP) 51 ERA- | 74 FIP- | +0.58 WPA Mears (33 IP) 53 ERA- | 62 FIP- | +0.64 WPA Koenig (33 IP) 105 ERA- | 86 FIP- | +0.57 WPA Ashby (15 IP) 28 ERA- | 55 FIP- | +0.32 WPA Hall (14 IP) 75 ERA- | 109 FIP- | +0.19 WPA Rob Z (13 IP) 49 ERA- | 103 FIP- | +0.37 WPA Yeah, so that’s eight of eight with positive win probability added, seven of eight with better than average run prevention and six of eight with better than average peripherals. Maybe start giving Ashby the lefty leverage innings Koenig has gotten all year and give Jared some lower leverage spots with his recent struggles, but other than that hard for me to complain too much about the current pen group.
  18. sveumrules
    DSL Blue prevails 8-4. Yoneiker Lugo (double, walk), Angel Gonzalez (double, single, steal), Moises Polanco (three singles, two steals, walk), Frandy Lafond (two singles, walk), Joan Gutierrez (single, two walks, steal), Leonard Rijo (two walks, steal), and Jefer Lista (single, HBP) gave them purt near a whole lineup of multiple reachers. Jean Rodriguez had the “cleanest” pitching line with 3 IP | 1 R | 0 H | 3 BB | 2 HBP | 2 K…look ma, no hits!! (couple batters notwithstanding)
  19. sveumrules
    DSL Gold loses 9-2 in what appears to have been a rain shortened six inning affair. Kenny Fenelon (walk, RBI single), Francis Sosa (walk, single, two steals), and Cristian Montilla (walk, single) earned the coveted BF Minor League Game Thread shout outs.
  20. sveumrules
    Kind of interesting feature on the FanGraphs leaderboards where you can select Active Roster instead of the default obviously being everybody who has been on the team at any point all year. For instance… Full Season Hitting 97 wRC+ (17th) | 389 R (7th) | 11.2 WAR (13th) Active Roster Hitting 102 wRC+ (18th) | 370 R (4th) | 11.8 WAR (10th) [everything slides up a notch with just 181 PA of Mitchell, Capra, Dunn and Drew Avans removed from the equation. Pretty crazy they only scored 19 runs combined but I guess when you’re never on base] Full Season Pitching 94 ERA- (13th) | 99 FIP- (16th) | 10.4 rWAR (10th) Active Roster Pitching 74 ERA- (2nd) | 90 FIP- (7th) | 12.8 rWAR (3rd) [lot bigger difference on the pitching side with the jump in Active Roster numbers illustrating just how solid the current thirteen guys have been aside from the inevitable blip here or there]
  21. sveumrules
    He’s played a handful of 2B too, seven starts on the dirt versus seventeen in the grass. Not a perfect comp, but the guy I’ve kinda had in my head as a physical point of reference since we signed Fielder is Willie Calhoun who was a Top 100 guy with the Dodgers/Rangers circa 2017/18. Fielder’s not quite as short as Calhoun, but they’re both in that stocky LF/borderline 2B sort of bucket. Willie was also more of a high average/low K guy in the low minors where Jadyn has been more 3TO. Looking through recent-ish stateside complex hitters similar to Jadyn’s 267/432/475 (145 wRC+) 17.4 BB% | 24.2 K% line maybe gives a couple more cloudy crystal balls… 2022 Carlos Jorge (5’9” 160 2B/OF) hit 261/409/525 (146 wRC+) 16.2 BB% | 26.2 K%. Little more power, not quite as many walks and lower listed weight, but pretty close. Was also two years younger. Currently on second go around in A+. 2021 Edgar Quero (5’10 200 C) hit 253/440/505 (148 wRC+). Two years younger again and playing at the top of the defensive spectrum instead of teetering near the bottom. Jadyn will need to hit like Edgar did (131 wRC+ in the minors post-2021) to keep moving up. Going back to the pre-Covid rookie leagues found one more that’s pretty close, 2016 Khalil Lee (5’10 170 OF) hit 269/396/484 (144 wRC+) 14.9 BB% | 25.7 K%. Again two years younger and was playing some CF so starting from a higher athletic floor. Continued to hit (127 wRC+ from 2017-21) and got a couple cups of MLB coffee.
  22. sveumrules
    Bravo couldn’t hold the lead bottom seven, but limited the damage to one run to keep things tied at three each. Jorge Quintana walked to lead off the eighth, went to third on a Demetrio Nadal double, then a Jadyn Fielder HBP loaded the bases for Kevin Ereu. The same Kevin Ereu with ten singles, one double, one home run and 37 strikeouts in 125 plate appearances. But, no matter. Not only did Ereu walk for the 22nd time, the pitcher uncorked a wild pitch in doing so allowing two runs to score for a 5-3 ACL Crew lead.
  23. sveumrules
    Mercado retired the first two batters of the sixth before Ayendy Bravo came on for the third out. Kevin Garcia single (wild pitch) and an Engel Paulino single put runners on the corners for an RBI groundout from Handelfry to give the Zona Crew a 3-2 advantage top seven.
  24. sveumrules
    Zona Crew tied up at two top six. Demetrio Nadal walked, went to second on a wild pitch, stole third then scored on a Kevin Ereu groundout. Kevin Garcia followed with a two out single before Engel Paulino tripled him home. Enderson Mercado has gone 5 IP | 2 R | 5 H | 1 BB | 7 K so far.
  25. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like he caught eight of his first ten games in Nashville, last game behind the dish on June 18 before DHing for his last six games now. Went back to the GameDay for the 18th to see if maybe he was HBP or something but the only bread crumb was he came out in the 7th inning when the game resumed following a rain delay.
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