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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Fangraphs had an article last week about how Corbin's velocity has been noticeably down over his last two starts, though the results haven't necessarily suffered commensurately. Will be interesting to see where he is sitting today & if it is something the Brewers can capitalize on. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-diamondbacks-could-have-a-patrick-corbin-problem/ -
2011 is the best by fWAR with a 16.8 mark. Braun (7.1), Hart (3.8), Nyjer (3.7) & Gomez (2.2) being the main contributors. 1978 comes in at second with 15.4 fWAR with 1979 (4th, 13.2) & 1980 (9th, 10.2) also in the top 10 along with 2012 (3rd, 14.0), 2013 (5th, 12.2), 2008 (6th, 11.3), 1999 (7th, 11.2), 2010 (8th, 10.7) & 2007 (10th, 9.6) rounding out the top ten. Just for fun, the bottom three are 1977 (0.5), 1984 (-0.1) & 1985 (-0.3). Could have a shot this year if Yelich/Cain end up in the 5-6 WAR range & Domingo/Braun can hang out around 2-3 WAR each.
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Worst batting average lineup ever?
sveumrules replied to brewerfan82's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Baltimore is currently sporting a .215 team batting average, good for 19th worst of all time. Of the 18 teams to sport a lower team batting average, 15 of them played between 1873 & 1888, so we can probably throw them out. Two more were deadball era teams, 1908 Superbas & 1910 White Sox, so we can probably throw them out. The closest a somewhat recent team has come to pulling off a .215 team batting average was the 1968 Yankees who came in at .214 & featured a few guys below the Uecker, errr Mendoza Line: Tom Tresh (.195/590 PAs), Dick Howser (.153/190 PAs), Frank Fernandez (.170/170 PAs) and Gene Michael (.198/119 PAs). Of the eleven remaining teams rounding out the top, errr bottom 30 another five are 19th Century/deadball era clubs & three more are 2018 clubs which leaves the 1972 Rangers (.217), 1963 Mets (.219) & 1963 Colt .45s (.220) as other somewhat recentish teams who have collectively gotten hits as infrequently over a full season as the Orioles have so far over 22 games. -
Random news and notes for MLB 2018
sveumrules replied to young guns's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
With his usage so far it looks like Ohtani will probably come in around 300 PAs this year. He's going to have to hit like a monster to crack 2 WAR on offense between the limited PAs & the DH positional adjustment. A reasonable proxy might be Jose Martinez last year, 135wRC+ in 307 PAs with a -8 DEF (same general ballpark as the DH adjustment) netted him 1.6 WAR. Now if he does that & is a top 5 pitcher (5+ WAR or so) he should for sure be in the conversation. If he's only a top 20 or so pitcher (say something like Darvish last year, 187 IP/3.83 FIP/3.5 WAR), the chances become slimmer. There's other factors at play of course (WAR doesn't account for the additional flexibility he provides by essentially filling 1.5 spots as 1 human, hype factor, Angels record) but it will definitely be fun to see how it all plays out. -
The moves made (& not made) this offseason seemed to indicate to me that Stearns was hoping to move the team from being surprise contenders last season to legit contenders this season while maintaining flexibility into the future; whether in the form of midseason trade, help from the farm or a larger FA expenditure in a coming offseason. I do not believe there was a realistic set of transactions that could have pushed us into to WS contenders grouping with LA, CHI & WAS this past offseason. Speaking of, the Dodgers are 3-6. Has anyone checked Dodgerfan.net to make sure everyone is ok over there?
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We were spring for my freshman year & summer for sophmore through senior. Summer was waaaaay better. More games, better weather. Funny story. One year it was blazing hot for our sectional game. Our coach was so clueless he's reading off the lineup before the game & announces a player that hadn't even showed up. Another good one was the time we asked our coach if any college coaches or scouts ever got in touch with him. (Not an entirely unreasonable question as we had a future MLB player & another five or six that played some sort of college ball.) His response, "Oh yeah, just the other day I got something from UW-Minnesota."
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Not concerned at all. Chacin had a 7.20 ERA after three starts last season & ended up at 3.89. His ERA at this point (or any stat for any player at this point really) has almost zero predictive value. If he continues to pitch poorly he can be jettisoned at minimal financial hindrance & we can see what one of the youngsters is capable of. If he returns to around his career norms he's an adequate MLB starter.
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Exactly. If left to their own devices I fear we'll end up with Doc Rivers or Mark Jackson or a Van Gundy.
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Hopefully the owners are smart enough to realize that they, Horst & Thorn are in no way qualified to make such a pivotal decision so they clean house this offseason & bring in a forward thinking POBO with full autonomy to hire a new GM/coach to hopefully right the ship. They're billionaires, they have to be smart enough to realize this.
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How many Mental Mistakes before Counsell gets Fired?
sveumrules replied to 3and2Fastball's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Counsell was drafted 319th in 1992. Of the 318 players drafted ahead of him only nine bested his career WAR total. I think you are severely underselling his talent as a player. -
I know it's probably grounds for a permanent banning to say anything complimentary about a Cardinal, but I really enjoyed Wainwright talking about his garden.
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The Brewers started 2-5 last year & still won 86 games. As ugly as it has been at times they are currently 5-4. I'm as worried about this team about as much as I'm worried about having a fatal bowel movement.
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If Brooklyn is tanking they should probably hire a new GM since their pick is going to Cleveland this year.
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There is plenty of risk with Chacin, that's why he was signable at 2/15. If the Jhoulys we've seen in two starts represents his true talent level you can cut bait with minimal financial hindrance & see what one of the youngsters has. If he pitches to his career norms you have a fine back end starter at a reasonable cost. If DJ works some magic & Jhoulys is able to improve on his career norms as the season progresses you have a nice bargain. Which of the three scenarios will unfold? Stay tuned, I guess.
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So Blackmon got 5/94 for his age 32-36 seasons without hitting the open market. The player options make it a little trickier, but that's the guarantee. Cain got 5/80 on the open market for his age 32-36 seasons.
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Got a brat, dog & beer cheese sausage at the home opener. Beer cheese was pretty good, will definitely eat again. Brat was definitely an upgrade too. The dog was not listed in the Johnsonville grouping on the menu. Not sure if it's still Klement's or someone else but I thought it was about the same as years past.
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Optimal depth for me would be something similar to what the Dodgers or Cubs playing time/plate appearances turned out to be last season when they finished 1/2 in NL position player fWAR. Dodgers had eleven players crack 100 games, ten of which posted 1.3 fWAR or greater. They had five qualifiers (502+ PAs) who all hit a wRC+ of 117 or greater and provided a total of 22.8 fWAR. They got another 9.9 fWAR from their six non qualified 100 gamers who ranged in PAs from 262 to 482. Cubs also had eleven players crack 100 games, nine of which posted 1.2 fWAR or greater. They spread their playing time around a little more evenly with only three qualifiers - Bryant, Rizzo & Baez totaling 12.9 fWAR. Their remaining eight non qualified 100 gamers chipped in a total 11.9 fWAR with PAs ranging from 323 to 496. They even managed another 1.7 fWAR from their 12th-14th spots in PAs.
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Thanks for putting in all the work to compile this again, reilly. The anagrams are definitely a nice touch. Say what you will about the individual players & their placements, I think my favorite thing about the list is that the top 18 & 23 of the 25 (Perrin is ok, er no?) are healthy and ready to go for 2018. Lots of interesting depth & should hopefully be fun to follow the Minor League side of things this summer.
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Just as an aside, I was curious how much Braun's performance has really declined "post-PEDs". 2007-12 | PA: 3,854 (16th) wRC+: 149 (4th) Batting Runs: 228.8 (4th) fWAR: 30.3 (6th) 2013-17 | PA: 2,390 (111th) wRC+: 124 (38th) Batting Runs: 67.0 (37th) fWAR: 10.0 (104th) So pretty much from top 5 hitter/player to top 40 hitter/100 player with injury issues. I could definitely settle for another 110 or so games of 125ish wRC+ this season with a couple more crowd quieting moments like in San Diego thrown in for good measure.
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No one was thrown under any bus. According to the all knowing oracle of The Internet throwing someone under the bus refers to the act of betrayng a friend or ally for selfish reasons. The Urine Guy was never Braun's friend or ally & if he had done his job correctly Braun would never have won his appeal in the first place. Also Braun was never busted for "steroids" that I'm aware of. I believe it was elevated levels of testosterone which were found in the compromised sample. Once it is understood that most casual fans can't even get these two pieces of crucial information correct (not accusing anyone here, just to be clear), it's not surprising they still refelexively boo when his name is announced.
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Manny, Big Hurt, Helton, Walker & Edgar. Only one HOFer, two with Larry.
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Sogard is at 3.1 fWAR/5.7 bWAR in 1631 PAs. That's 1.1 fWAR/600 PA or 2.1 bWAR/600 PA. Villar is at 2.3 fWAR/5.4 bWAR in 1779 PAs. That's 0.8 fWAR/600 PA or 1.8 bWAR/600 PA. Perez is at 0.9 fWAR/2.1 bWAR in 1242 PAs. That's 0.4 fWAR/600 PA or 1.0 bWAR/600 PA. Quite the fearsome hierarchy. Let's hope Keston is legit, I guess.
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For whatever it is or isn't worth 1380 of Cain's 3062 career plate appearances have come in the three hole. Prior to this season he's batted sixth & seventh more than he has lead off.
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I find it highly unlikely that CC hasn't communicated to these guys some idea of what their roles are going to be this year & how it compares to their recent usage. Yelich: starting LF, backup CF/RF when Cain/Domingo sit. One game off every other week. 149 starts. (Yelich has averaged 145 games over the last 4 seasons). Cain/Domingo: starting CF/RF. One day off a week each. 136 starts. (Cain has averaged 133 games over the last 4 seasons, Domingo has started 250 games over one full & two partial seasons or about 125 games per full season). Thames: starting 1B vs RHP. 115 starts. (Thames started 103 games at 1B last year). Braun: starting 1B vs LHP (47), LF when Yelich is resting or in CF/RF (65). DH (10). 122 starts. (Averaged 129 games over the last 4 seasons).
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Last season we got 2,877 PAs from the 1/2/3/5 spots. I'll assume Shaw gets most of the cleanup PAs again. That's about 577 PAs each evenly distributed for five guys. Of course the guys at the top of the order (Cain/Yelich/Braun) would have more opportunities to accrue PAs than the guys likely to hit 5th when they're in the lineup (Thames/Domingo). Our OBPs in those same spots were 320/384/330/333, three of those four should be relatively easy to improve upon which could also yield additional PAs for everyone. We also recorded 283 pinch hit PAs last season. With one of the 5 OF/1B bats on the bench every game that should be another source of PAs. If everyone is healthy all year (they won't be) there should be no problem getting five qualifiers out of those four positions/lineup spots.
