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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Oh, so that's why Nieuwenhuis kept playing over Santana in 2016. Santana started 28 of the first 40 games in RF in 2016 before going on the DL. Over that same timeframe Kirk did not start a single game in RF. Santana came back to the majors from injury/rehab on August 19th. From then until the end of the season he started 30 of 42 games. Over that same timeframe Kirk started 10 games in RF. With regards to the TH piece, I'm glad that Stearns stuck to his guns & didn't make a deal just for the sake of making a deal or because he felt pressure to go all in following the other moves. Despite the loss of Brinson/Monte/Isan & the money committed to LoCain, I feel we improved both our current & future outlook this offseason.
  2. sveumrules
    Fangraphs has the rotation at #20 in the league right now on their depth charts page and that’s with 1.2 WAR out of Miley and 1.8 out of Jimmy, which both seem a bit generous. I don’t think any individual pitcher projects inside the top 60 by any of their projection systems either. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP Anderson was 25th in MLB last season in FIP based WAR (3.3) & 16th in runs allowed based WAR (4.6) in only 141 innings. The projections don't know about his velocity increase & change in mound positioning so they have him barely scratching 2 WAR. If he can match or exceed last year's innings that should be an easy over.
  3. sveumrules
    Brandon Woodruff lead all of the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2016 & was our top pitching prospect entering 2017. He posted half a win in 43 MLB innings last year. Brent Suter has never been confused for a top prospect, but has gotten people out through his entire career. Not all that different than Zach Davies. He continued to prove the doubters wrong & put up a win and a half in only 81 innings last year. Junior Guerra was our best pitcher in 2016 & entered 2017 as our number one starter. If he regains his 2016 form we have another league average or better starter on our hands. Corbin Burnes is our number one pitching prospect & absolutely dominated at AA last season. He should be ready to get major league hitters out at some point this season. Luis Ortiz & Freddy Peralta are also prospects of some regard who have already experienced success at AA. Miley may be horse fodder at this point, but if the six names above are also horse fodder (I don't believe they are) we are definitely in trouble.
  4. sveumrules
    The 2017 Brewers scored 4.52 runs per game against a BaseRuns projected 4.65 runs per game. That negative 0.13 differential was 5th worst in the league behind the Reds (.14), A's (.14), Padres (.20) & Rays (.29). The common elements do seem to be K% & RISP as Milwaukee, SD, TB & OAK all finished bottom 5 in each category. Reds were actually slightly above league average in both categories so I'm not sure what their excuse was, probably Votto walking too much again. Cain & Yelich should help in both categories as they K less than league average & have performed better with RISP for their careers, +.038 RISP OPS for Yelich & +.033 RISP OPS for Cain. League average for RISP OPS over the last ten seasons has ranged from +.010 to +.024. Both have received the most PAs at the three spot throughout their careers so their opportunities should decrease slightly if they do bat one/two for most of the season. At the same time RISP stats are fluky by their very nature given the limited sample. Even a well rounded, generational hitter like Braun (+.037 career) is a great example. From 2007 to 2011, with Fielder behind him he posted a +.007 RISP OPS. In 2012, his last elite season with no Fielder but other help it was -.026. Then from 2013-2016 a more injured, slightly less potent version of Braun went crazy & put up a +.141 RISP OPS (+.194 for just 2015-16!) before catering last year to the tune of a -.135 mark.
  5. sveumrules
    1. Keston Hiura 2. Corbin Burnes 3. Brandon Woodruff 4. Luis Ortiz 5. Freddy Peralta 6. Tristen Lutz 7. Maverick Phillips 8. Troy Stokes 9. Lucas Erceg 10. Trent Grisham 11. Corey Ray 12. Mauricio Dubon 13. Cody Ponce 14. Taylor Williams 15. Adrian Houser 16. Marcos Diplan 17. Mario Feliciano 18. Jacob Nottingham 19. KJ Harrison 20. Jacob Gatewood 21. Phil Bickford 22. Kodi Medeiros 23. Caden Lemons 24. Jorge Lopez 25. Trey Supak
  6. sveumrules
    Kyle Wren (27) | ISO: .088 | XBH%: 20.9 | BB%: 9.4 | 8th round college senior. Troy Stokes (22) | ISO: .150 | XBH%: 35.2 | BB%: 10.9 | 4th round HS draftee. They're both short, but when Wren was Stokes age he was in A ball. Stokes is also BUILT for a little guy. Wren's ultimate upside for me is 4th OF with the most likely outcome 5th OF/AAAA. I think Stokes still has a shot at being a solid MLB LF if he reaches his upside with 4th OF his most likely outcome. Hopefully one of the aforementioned teams offers up some interesting arms or maybe a catching prospect for Keon. While he's nice depth to have around he's also superfluous at the moment with our OF depth & it'd be nice to see him get an MLB shot with a team that can offer more PAs than we can.
  7. sveumrules
    In Anderson, Davies & Chacin we have three legitimate MLB starters with varying degrees of success over multiple seasons. In Woodruff & Suter we have two young pitchers with varying degrees of pedigree who have already experienced MLB success albeit in a limited sample. In Guerra & Miley we have a couple guys who were terrible last season, but have had varying degrees of success in the past. In Burnes, Ortiz & Peralta we have three prospects of some regard who have already pitched successfully at the AA level & could potentially help at some point similar to Woodruff/Suter last year. In Nelson we have our best pitcher from last year who should be ready at some point during the season. Having Cobb to add into that first group would be nice, but I feel we have plenty of legit options without him.
  8. sveumrules
    Based on public statements by Stearns the intention is for the entire roster to resemble the current 1B/OF situation by having multiple legitimate options at each spot. We aren't there yet, but it seems we're farther along at this point than most would have imagined at the time of his hire. Phillips & Broxton have options. It's a good thing to have legitimate depth at AAA. Aguilar had a nice year last season, but the reason we got him on waivers in the first place is because RH 1B is thee most saturated market in the game. Last season the Brewers were a top 4 NL rotation by both FIP & runs allowed based WAR. No one foresaw that before the season. Writing off this year's rotation before the season starts, especially with guys like Burnes, Ortiz & Peralta as reinforcements (& Nelson at some point) should the 4/5 options falter or when the inevitable injuries occur seems premature. No amount of moves this offseason was going to vault us into the Dodgers/Cubs/Nationals tier of teams. I believe the moves that have been made have jumped us up from surprise WC contenders to legit WC contenders, which was realistically the most we could expect.
  9. sveumrules
    Would I prefer that our roster looked a little neater on paper? Sure. I'd imagine Stearns does too. Would I make a suboptimal move (either selling low or buying high on a player's perceived value to the organization) just to accomplish that task? No. Very few teams have an ideally configured roster, especially ones with Milwaukee's resources.
  10. sveumrules
    Absolutely wasting Santana's value/potential. Not starting one game has no effect on Santana's value/potential. Even if all of Thames/Braun/Cain/Yelich/Domingo are perfectly healthy all year long (they won't be) there are plenty of PAs for everyone. Keeping players well rested & facing favorable match ups may even result in better production.
  11. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see how Lucroy's season unfolds. From 2010-16 he posted a 43.6% ground ball rate, placing him in the bottom 40% of qualified batters. In 2016 alone it was 37.2%, placing him in the bottom 20% of qualified batters. In 2017, when seemingly everyone was trying to put more balls in the air, his ground ball rate skyrocketed to 53.5% placing him in the TOP 6% of all batters with at least 450 PAs. I can't imagine that was a conscious decision.
  12. sveumrules
    Something to keep in mind with Cobb is even without his split/change last season he still posted a career high in innings while finishing 56th in FIP based WAR & 27th in Runs Allowed based WAR. Every pitcher has health concerns & Cobb might have more than most, but even without his best weapon he was still a top 50ish pitcher in all of MLB last season.
  13. sveumrules
    Do you think Boras waives his fee on a contract like this? Most free agents that get 5 year deals end up being overpays, so Cain most likely will be too, but it's not a guarantee. While he is 32 he was also in the top 5% of all MLB in sprint speed last season per statcast so any decline will be from an already elite level in that regard. Even if it does end up being an overpay, I don't really care. Lorenzo has more than earned it. He was one of my favorite prospects to follow coming up & despite never getting any top 100 love has been a top 25 player in all of MLB since he became a regular five years ago. The odds of him living up to a 5/80 deal may be small, but they are much greater than his odds were of ever reaching this point in the first place.
  14. sveumrules
    Tampa Bay looking to try out a four man rotation this year & then going with bullpen days when the fifth spot comes up. Will definitely be interesting to see how long they stick with it & what the results will be. Is this the Rays being innovative? "Only if it works," (manager Kevin) Cash said. "If it doesn't, it's dumb." http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/03/07/old-school-or-innovative-rays-eyeing-four-man-rotation-for-full-season/
  15. sveumrules
    It certainly is what it is, I'd never propose it is what it isn't. The thing is though it's only March 7th & we won't really know what it is until September 30th. It might not be good enough, it might be plenty. Coming into last season the prevailing sentiment would have been what we had wasn't good enough. It ended up being far better than most expected. Last spring our rotation options lined up something like Guerra, Davies, Peralta, Anderson, Nelson, Garza, Millone, Woodruff, Suter. This spring it is something like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, Miley, Guerra, Suter, Nelson, Burnes. Looking at those names I believe our starting pitching depth is better now than it was a year ago.
  16. sveumrules
    I guess that depends on how one values Woodruff. I value him as someone likely capable of producing at the level of a 4/5 starter this year with the upside of possibly being a solid 2/3 in the future, maybe even as soon as this season.
  17. sveumrules
    The Burnes/Woodruff comparison is an interesting one. Their stats from their breakout seasons are remarkably similar with Burnes being younger & having the shinier ERA while Woodruff had the edge in the strikeout department. Woodruff (Age 23) A+: 44.1 IP 1.83 ERA 2.51 FIP 9.9 K/9 2.0 BB/9 0.4 HR/9 AA: 113.2 IP 3.01 ERA 2.49 FIP 9.8 K/9 2.4 BB/9 0.3 HR/9 Total: 158 IP 2.68 ERA 2.49 FIP 9.9 K/9 2.3 BB/9 0.3 HR/9 Burnes (Age 22) A+: 60 IP 1.05 ERA 2.23 FIP 8.4 K/9 2.4 BB/9 0.2 HR/9 AA: 85.2 IP 2.10 ERA 2.65 FIP 8.8 K/9 2.1 BB/9 0.2 HR/9 Total: 145.2 IP 1.85 ERA 2.48 FIP 8.6 K/9 2.2 BB/9 0.2 HR/9 I'd be counting on Woodruff to fill a rotation spot all season with Burnes being the first man up when needed during the season. Would also be fine with Cobb around 3/50 if he ever decides to sign.
  18. sveumrules
    Correct. I looked up putouts because it was the easiest to find. Digging a little deeper I found this FG article by Travis Sawchick examining which positions have seen their opportunities decrease the most with the increase in strikeouts... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-defensive-opportunities-have-declined-most/ From his data it looks like RF consistently have more opportunities than LF which makes sense intuitively since ground balls have a higher likelihood of being pulled, fly balls have a higher likelihood of being hit to the opposite field & most batters are RH. Pulled fly balls do tend to have a higher exit velocity than flyballs hit to the opposite field so your hypothesis likely does factor into why LFs record fewer POs than RFs as LFs have both fewer opportunities & more difficult opportunities.
  19. sveumrules
    Putouts in LF have ended up between 8512 & 9020 over the last five compared to 9401 & 9771 over the last five years for RF putouts, so it looks like there are typically more opportunities in RF.
  20. sveumrules
    That would be my plan with good health & no trades. That way Thames would never start against a LHP. Cain (32 year old CF) & Santana (sub optimal defender) get one day off per week to hopefully stay fresh throughout the season & exploit favorable match ups. Even when Braun's healthy he's hurt so I think 120 games is a good target. The Brewers also have 10 DH games this year so that could get Yelich up to 156 by DHing Braun/Santana & giving Yelich their OF starts in those games.
  21. sveumrules
    Khris Davis & Christian Yelich both debuted in 2013. During that time frame Khris Davis received MLB worst arm ratings of -24 per DRS & -22 per UZR. Yelich has also been a bottom ten arm ranking at -12 by both DRS & UZR. I don't think putting Christian in RF for any extended period is maximizing his skill set. Good news is even without a trade or injury we shouldn't really need to. If no trades are made & everyone is healthy coming into the season I'd look to divvy it up something like this... 1B: Thames (110) / Braun (52) LF: Yelich (94) / Braun (68) CF: Cain (136) / Yelich (26) RF: Domingo (136) / Yelich (26) That's Thames (110), Braun (120), Lo/Do (136 each) & Yelich (146). If Santana is on the Opening Day roster he will play. There's no way to raise his trade value by sitting him on the bench.
  22. sveumrules
    Good look at the financial state of baseball by Ben Lindbergh over at The Ringer. Makes it sound like players' share of revenues have actually kept pace with the increased revenue... https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/2/21/17035624/mlb-revenue-sharing-owners-players-free-agency-rob-manfred
  23. sveumrules
    Believe it is on the FSW Alternate. 1310 on Spectrum, not sure about other providers. Ohtani on the hill for the Angels as well.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, Ponce had the forearm in 2016 & his shoulder held him out for a few weeks of his draft season in 2015. Agree a 4/5 starter is more valuable than a utility IF so the upside is higher, but Ponce's profile is also riskier. MLB freezes my browser so I can't see where on the list their grade break is, but the difference between 11 & 14 is probably negligible. Fangraphs has both Mauricio & Cody at 45 Future Value. Sickels has Dubon at B-, Ponce at B-/C+.
  25. sveumrules
    At number eleven on the list everyone below Dubon has just as many or even more questions. Sure, Mauricio will probably never hit for enough power to be a starter, but with his speed/defensive versatility/contact ability he has a higher floor than just about anyone below him & will very likely make a 25 man roster at some point. Maybe as soon as this year. 12. Diplan (short RHP, probably a reliever) 13. Houser (injury issues, likely relief only) 14. Ponce (injury issues) 15. Feliciano (teenager, catchers have the highest bust rate after HS pitchers) 16. Cardona (teenager) 17. Lemons (teenager) 18. T. Williams (injury issues, relief only) 19. Gatewood (nice power, but 1B only w/contact issues) 20. Medeiros (relief only) 21. Harrison (college catcher in rookie ball) 22. Stokes (LOVE Stokes, but he is 5'8" & likely LF only) 23. Supak (possible 4/5 starter) 24. Lopez (likely relief only at this point) 25. Z. Brown (possible 4/5 starter) 26. Rodriguez (teenager) 27. Nottingham (catcher that has trouble catching) 28. Ward (teenager) 29. Ernesto (teenager) 30. Murphy (teenager) It pretty much comes down to how much you weight upside/risk against floor/certainty. At that point on the list almost everyone has a higher ceiling than Dubon, but all come with much higher risk as well.
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