sveumrules

Because in addition to rarely walking or barely hitting for any power he is also a below average base runner (-5.0 BsR from 2022-24) and was so bad at 2B (-24 FRV) that he is pretty much 1B only now…and he hasn’t been too good there either with -6 FRV career in 1,152 innings. Add it all up and last year his .314 batting average shook out to a 109 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR. He should bounce back some, but posting career worst walk rate, isolated slugging and xwOBA numbers while falling to the bottom of the defensive spectrum is pretty concerning.

I dunno. Defense really seemed to start clicking once AJJ entered the starting lineup. Bucks 109.5 dRTG is 6th in the NBA going back to his first start on 11/07. AJG is shooting .442 from deep and his +6.7 On/Off is second on the team behind only Giannis among guys getting regular minutes. Rollins has made a strong case for his two way deal to be converted to a standard contract with a +8.5 On/Off in his limited minutes so far this year. None of these guys are stars by any means, but they all look like guys capable of getting playoff minutes this year (AJJ/AJG) or somewhere down the road (RR).

I think Yelich will be primarily DH, but still play some LF against LHP and/or when Contreras is in the DH spot.

Pressly 2018-22 (among 143 RP min. 150 IP) 258 IP (24th) | 150 K%+ (7th) | 78 BB%+ (23rd) | 61 HR9+ (28th) | 83 AVG+ (20th) | 61 ERA- (8th) | 57 FIP- (5th) | 7.8 rWAR (3rd) | 7.8 fWAR (4th) | +7.42 WPA (8th) Pressly 2023-24 (among 130 RP min. 90 IP) 122 IP (43rd) | 112 K%+ (61st) | 80 BB%+ (29th) | 74 HR9+ (56th) | 98 AVG+ (92nd) | 86 ERA- (71st) | 78 FIP- (33rd) | 0.9 rWAR (75th) | 1.9 fWAR (32nd) | -0.21 WPA (95th) Pressly was an easy Top 10 reliever for the 2018-22 period, but has been a lot more human the last two years with his K rate falling off in correspondence with losing his ability to limit hits resulting in pretty pedestrian results in terms of run prevention and leverage performance.

Adames and Contreras were pretty big trade acquisitions.

Bingo. Cot's has the Dodgers up over $300M, there are three more teams (NYY, NYM, PHI) just under that amount by ten fifteen million. There are another five (SDP, ATL, TEX, HOU, TOR) around $210M to $240M. The Brewers could add $50M to overtake the Orioles for the 15th highest payroll in MLB and still be $50M short of the fifth spendiest team in the NL (SDP) and $20M short of the Cubs. Given the disparities they are up against there really isn't that much difference between running a $110M and a $160M payroll. Making a couple big moves wouldn't come close to getting them over any kind of hump.

Jumping in on the Areinamo talk, it looks like he just missed the Top 20 back in October by four points (thanks for the in thread tabulations @Ro Mueller) so if one person that didn't vote would have cast a ballot with Jadher at #16 or higher he would have snuck in the last spot. Gotta start with the hit tool. There are 435 players in the minors with at least 800 PAs the last two years. Jadher's .303 average is tied for 10th while his 11.7 K% is 13th lowest in the sample. That's pretty remarkable, borderline elite kind of stuff. Unfortunately his 5.6 BB% is also 13th lowest in the sample, so if he isn't getting hits he isn't getting on base. The power has also been questionable in the past, though he did make some progress there last year with 30 doubles and 10 bombs at Wisco adding up to a .141 ISO that was above the .124 league average in the MWL. Nice stolen base numbers with 48 SB / 13 CS the last two years, but sounds like he is more of a smart base runner than a certified burner kind of guy? As good as the defense is, I think most view him as more of a really good 2B at the MLB level who could play some SS and be fine, and not quite having the power to fit the typical everyday 3B people like to think of. His game breakdown the last two years has been 112 (2B) 50 (3B) 38 (SS). Ultimately it feels like his top end realistic outcome to me is maybe something like Kolten Wong circa 2014-20. A guy who could put up around league average offense (98 wRC+) with plus base running (+18.8 BsR) and defense (+52 DRS). Failing that, it seems like he has the well rounded toolset of a guy who could have a long career as a utility man so more of a medium ceiling, high floor kind of prospect. Not long ago, this is an easy Top Ten prospect in the system. Based on where my own personal tier breaks are I started considering him with others around #18. I ended up going with Luis Lara, Jose Anderson, and Ernesto Martinez for those last three spots mostly because we are thinner organizationally in OF/1B prospects than we are in IF prospects.

I think the community being hesitant to go all in on Made is a good thing, especially back in October when there was less information and external accolades available. For one, it shows an element of restraint and more importantly it speaks to the depth of the system that a teenager with a nice bonus and big DSL numbers isn’t automatically vaulted to the #1 spot. I also think BA and other prospect outlets are incentivized somewhat to take more aggressive stances on prospects like Jesus to be “first” or whatever. Shiny New Toy Syndrome. Personally I’ve got Misio, Quero, Pratt and Made in the same tier. If Jesus comes over and keeps his performance up stateside he could put himself into a tier of his own for me, but until then it feels responsible to hedge somewhat when the hype is ramping up this early & he’s still so far away.

Looks like Bukauskas went unclaimed on waivers and will remain with the organization getting a Spring Training invite.

Profar cashes in on his big year getting 3/42 from the Braves.

The quote from the agent was, “I think there’s an argument to be made that a smaller, mid market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing.” Classic agent speak loaded with qualifiers…“I think”, “an argument to be made”, “might be more beneficial”. He never once indicated he was speaking on behalf of his client’s desires. Wolfe’s job was to make it seem like it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that Sasaki was signing with the Dodgers, so that’s what he did.

Sasaki never said any of that, his agent did, to the press.

2024 ZiPS 50% 95 OPS+ | 1.7 WAR 2024 ZiPS 80% 114 OPS+ | 3.1 WAR 2024 Real Life 117 OPS+ | 3.8 WAR 2025 ZiPS 50% 108 OPS+ | 2.6 WAR 2025 ZiPS 80% 129 OPS+ | 4.0 WAR 2025 Real Life ????????????? I’d like to think Jackson can come in north of his 80th percentile projection again and put up an OPS+ somewhere in the 130’s with a WAR approaching five.

Using the numbers from the OP there have been five World Series teams in the Brewers general salary range the last ten years - #17, #18, #19, #20 and #28. There have only been two teams to reach the World Series in the higher teens - #11 and #13. The other thirteen World Series teams over the last ten seasons have ranked #8 or higher. Using the current Cot's projections for 2025 the Brewers would have to add about $100M to reach the #8 payroll (Padres currently) and around $70M to reach the #13 payroll (Cubs currently). Neither of those seem like realistic amounts of payroll to add. Even adding $40M to get to #17 (Mariners currently) feels pretty fantasyland. No doubt the Brewers could spend more money, but it isn't really going to make much of a dent. Even an extra $25M would be pretty immaterial relative to the competition.

Don't really see any significant moves that make any sense. Middleton and Lillard aren't going anywhere. With Brook on an expiring and Bobby having a cheap player option maybe you move one of them for a younger, more athletic big that has a little more team control remaining? Who that is beats me, though. For as much consternation as those four get for being some combination of too old and/or not good enough defensively, the Bucks have been a Top Five defense for the last 31 games now with all four of them playing big minutes (Lillard/Lopez) or rotation minutes (Portis/Khris).

Already got me looking at the Carolina schedule trying to figure out a week in May or June to take a Zebulon trip.

Haven’t seen the whole movie yet, but did watch his scene. Perfect casting. Also really enjoyed his performance in Lucky as one of the local characters opposite Harry Dean Stanton, One comforting thing about Lynch passing is he had plenty of longtime collaborators waiting for him on the other side with HDS, the Log Lady, Jack Nance, and the rest. Also thought it was somewhat apropos that fire was so elemental to his work and it was a fire of almost unbelievable intensity and scale that more or less took him out and was one of the last things he experienced.

There was something on MLBTR a few days back about how Boras/Bregman are still focused on a long term deal. I can see why teams have been hesitant to this point. Gets a lot of his value from pulling homers to the short porch in HOU, has seen his wRC+ drop from 137 to 126 to 118 the last three years, walk rate fell off a cliff from 13.8% over 2018-23 down to a not so nice 6.9% in 2024. Apparently turned down something like Chapman money (6/150) before the Astros pivoted to trading for Paredes and signing Walker. Starting to look like another guy where Boras misread the market.

Bucks are 7 W - 1 L over the past two weeks since the last post in this thread. Why do I feel like those two things are somehow related? Their season essentially breaks down into four segments so far as we have reached the halfway point... UGLY START (2 W - 8 L) oRTG: 110.6 (19th) dRTG: 115.7 (22nd) netRTG: -5.1 (22nd) EMIRATES CHAMPS (12 W - 3 L) oRTG: 115.7 (10th) dRTG: 110.0 (8th) netRTG: +5.7 (10th) POST CUP HANGOVER (3 W - 5 L) oRTG: 106.3 (26th) dRTG: 107.0 (3rd) netRTG: -0.7 (16th) BACK ON TRACK (7 W - 1 L) oRTG: 120.7 (4th) dRTG: 110.4 (6th) netRTG: +10.3 (5th) LAST 31 GAMES CUMULATIVE (22 W - 9 L) oRTG: 114.5 (11th) dRTG: 109.3 (5th) netRTG: +5.2 (7th) Defense has been holding it down since those first ten games, and the offense has mostly been there outside of the post-Cup stretch where Dame and Giannis missed four games each. Keep everybody healthy, maybe make a stealth deadline move if there is one out there, and the Bucks have as good a chance as anybody at knocking off CLE and/or BOS in the playoffs.

The Dodgers have an estimated payroll of $351M for next year, the Brewers are at $116M currently. It would take way more than one or two moves to possibly get over that $235M hump. Lets go crazy, sign Alonso & Bregman for $30M each annually over the next six/seven years, trade some big prospects for Luis Robert and Luis Castillo, now we’re only $136M short of the Dodgers. So even with four yuge moves they’d still be a whole team’s payroll behind LAD, and also still well short of teams like HOU, NYY, TEX, TOR, NYM and PHI. I’d rather roll with the status quo since big moves don’t guarantee a World Series win in the present and would hinder the Brewers chances for future success by tying money up in aging players on the decline and thinning out the farm system.

Yeah, he was granted a fourth option year on account of injury. Roster Resource lists him with one remaining.

MLBTR write up mentions Elvin has two options left, so have to assume that was a factor. Also looks like he was primarily a starter in the minors with 130 games started and only eight scattered bullpen appearances. They don't have games started for Japan on BRef, but with 88 IP in 49 appearances this past year it looks like he was deployed primarily as a multi inning relief option.

On the one hand, how Uecker performed as a player on the field was the least remarkable thing about him. But on the other hand, that performance & his attitude about it also served as a springboard to all the unbelievable greatness that came to follow. So I guess it got me curious just how bad Ueck was. Turns out there were 297 players to get at least 800 plate appearances between 1962 and 1967, with Bob notching the following ranks... 146 BB%+ (22nd) | 143 K%+ (266th) | 76 AVG+ (297th) | 67 ISO+ (231st) | 64 wRC+ (283rd) What jumps out right away is that Ueck walked A LOT, especially for someone who couldn't get a hit and had no power. I can't recall one off the top of my head, but maybe he has an anecdote about how his approach in the box was to never swing and just pray for four balls? So my next thought was, does any active player have even a remotely similar profile at the plate? As it turns out, there are 300 players with at least 750 PAs over the last three years, a pretty similar size player pool. And one guy was pretty, pretty close... 146 BB%+ (22nd) | 116 K%+ (241st) | 76 AVG+ (298th) | 69 ISO+ (275th) | 70 wRC+ (292nd) I mean, come on now. The BB%+ and AVG+ are exactly the same, the ISO+ is two percent off, in a nice way. Some of the rankings even line up within a couple spots. Only real difference is this "new" Uecker doesn't strike out as much. So now the question is, does anyone know how Taylor Walls comedic timing is?

RIP David Lynch. Can only imagine what him and Ueck are talking about in line.

One under-reported aspect of Uecker's legacy is his charity. Despite retiring with a .200 career batting average he never once campaigned to have it renamed The Uecker Line.