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sveumrules

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  1. Mayo hit 098/196/098 (-6 wRC+) with a 47.8 K% in 46 MLB PAs last year. He followed that up by hitting 190/239/262 (29 wRC+) in 46 spring training PAs. His first 54 PAs at AAA this year are 196/278/326 (68 wRC+). Small samples all around, but dude is pretty much living on name value alone until he starts hitting again. FanGraphs just dropped their Orioles list today, here's what they had to say... "Mayo had a five-year track record of mashing dating back to high school before elevated strikeouts began to creep into his profile once he was promoted to Double-A. Since arriving in Bowie and then Norfolk, his K% has hovered around 25%, while Mayo’s underlying contact rate has slowly dipped into a problematic range, from 75% to 73% to 70%, as he’s progressed up the minor league ladder the last three years. Mayo’s funky, pull-heavy swing generates enormous pull-side power and loft, and he’s on time to destroy fastballs (his splits against plus velocity are great) even though he’s a massive, long-levered 6-foot-4 guy. His tendency to pull off toward the third base side has left him very vulnerable to sliders on the outer half, and as Mayo has faced more sentient pitching at the upper levels, this has been more consistently exploited. In spite of this, Mayo crushed Triple-A (.287/.364/.562) at age 22, including after he returned from a month-long IL stint due to a fractured rib. He looked positively lost during his 17-game, late-season big league call-up to Baltimore, during which he K’d in nearly half of his plate appearances, and a measure of that has continued in the early going of 2025, both during spring training and at the start of the International League schedule. Mayo is starting to have a more polarized power-over-hit offensive profile, where his projected output looks more like Chris Carter and Luke Voit. Even as he has struggled, his contact rate (70%) has still been a shade better than those guys, and Mayo’s strength and extreme pull approach should allow him to get to enough of his immense power to profile as a 2-WAR type of first baseman. But Mayo’s swing is really funky looking. It has worked for him his entire career, but there have been scouts that whole time who were skeptical it would work in the big leagues, and what’s happening with Mayo right now is what it would look like if they’re right. Mayo’s size makes it hard for him to move around at third base, and he has been speculatively projected to right field here at FanGraphs since before he was drafted because that’s the position that best takes advantage of his plus, max-effort arm strength. The Orioles have shown no inclination to try Mayo out there and began to deploy him at first base semi-frequently starting in 2023; he played about 20 games there each of the last two seasons, and has played first and third fairly evenly at the start of 2025. If Mayo can successfully play a more valuable position than first base, it will take pressure off the need for him to resolve his issues on offense."
  2. Tall skinny pitcher, explosive fastball, iffy command. I know it’s irresponsible to throw out certain comps because they are so far fetched (Nolan, Maddux, Pedro) but Misio is one of the very small handful of pitchers with the combination of stuff / physiology to have even a fraction of a chance to approach the heights reached by Randy or deGrom. For maybe a more realistic potential ceiling, how about Blake Snell (140 K+ | 138 BB+ since 2021)? Big stuff but questionable command has caused him to vacillate between Cy Young seasons and long stretches of being more of a good but frustrating SP. Other recent SPs with big Ks and high walk rates would be guys like Freddy (133 K+ | 104 BB+), Hunter Greene (132 K+ | 109 BB+), Dylan Cease (131 K+ | 116 BB+), Michael King (123 K+ | 101 BB+), Cole Ragans (121 K+ | 110 BB+), or Cristian Javier (121 K+ | 121 BB+). If he could dial in the BBs you get into the range with guys like Strider (165 K+ | 96 BB+), Glasnow (147 K+ | 92 BB+), Ohtani (138 K+ | 99 BB+), Crochet (138 K+ | 99 BB+), Carlos Rodon (131 K+ | 93 BB+), or Robbie Ray (130 K+ | 97 BB+).
  3. Mayo hit 098/196/098 (-6 wRC+) with a 47.8 K% in 46 MLB PAs last year. He followed that up by hitting 190/239/262 (29 wRC+) in 46 spring training PAs. His first 50 PAs at AAA this year are 190/280/310 (66 wRC+). Small samples all around, but dude is pretty much living on name value alone until he starts hitting again.
  4. Yoho out tor the 8th. First back to back of the season for Craig.
  5. Stiven Cruz the lone bright spot in the Biloxi pitching box with two scoreless frames (2 H | 2 K).
  6. Wilken and Adams walk to lead off the Biloxi eighth trying to kick start a comeback.
  7. Looks like QC was definitely hacking on Bayden Root - four up, four strikeouts swinging.
  8. Zavier Warren double and a Bladimir Restituyo single scored the second Shuckers run, now trailing 4-2 bottom of seven.
  9. Manny Rodriguez gave up a solo shot in the sixth but a Jadher Areinamo triple and Blake Burke sac fly have tied it up in the eighth. Extra innings for @CheeseheadInQC ??
  10. Hey now, Luis Lara walked, went to third on a pair of ground outs and just scored on a Luke Adams single to put Biloxi on the board.
  11. Tyler Woessner tried to get Tate Kuehner out of a two on, one out jam in the sixth but gave up a granny. Shuckers offense to this point has been EBJ and Ethan Murray singles. Oh, Brock Wilken walked too.
  12. Carolina loses its first game of the year 6-2. Bjorn Johnson finished things out with two scoreless (1 H | 1 BB | 3 K).
  13. Nashville got off to a late start but picked up a run in the first on a trio of singles from Monasterio, EMJ, and Alfaro. A Seigler double and Adam Hall single scored another in the 2nd frame. Misio just gave one back here top of three with a pair of walks and a single. Four strikeouts and 57 pitches so far.
  14. Tayden Hall single, Luis Castillo walk and a Juan Baez single netted Wisco their second run top of five to tie things up at two apiece after Manuel Rodriguez gave up a two run bomb the half inning prior.
  15. Filippo Di Turi has left the yard for Carolina cutting the deficit to 5-2 top of six.
  16. Manuel Rodriguez has three strikeouts through two scoreless for Wisco so far. Tate Kuehner has notched a pair of zeroes (1 BB) himself for Biloxi. Jesus Flores has a put up two scoreless (3 H | 2 K) relief frames for Carolina.
  17. Marco Dinges walk, Eric Bitonti single and a Demetrio Nadal single have Carolina on the board top of four.
  18. Often mentioned potential offseason target Yoan Moncada placed on the 10 Day IL today with a thumb sprain. He has hit 190/370/286 (105 wRC+) with a 29.6 K% through his first 27 PA with the Angels.
  19. Fun Fact? On account of having one sac fly but zero walks or HBP so far, Jackson currently has a batting average (.315) higher than his OBP (.309). Early season statistical anomalies aside, here is a link to the best Age 21 seasons since 1970. Will be fun to see where Jackson ends up in that list after his 3.9 WAR last year came in 9th among Age 20 seasons since 1970. Interesting coincidence? 9th place on the Age 21 leaderboard is 2024 Jackson Merrill with 5.3 WAR.
  20. Yeah, FanGraphs playoff odds have already started migrating some of the projected Wins and Division% upwards… MARCH 14 CHC: 84.0 W | 41.0% winDIV MIL: 80.8 W | 21.2% winDIV STL: 79.0 W | 14.2% winDIV CIN: 78.3 W | 11.8% winDIV PIT: 78.2 W | 11.9% winDIV TODAY CHC: 85.4 W | 51.5% winDIV MIL: 81.9 W | 25.5% winDIV STL: 78.2 W | 11.1% winDIV PIT: 76.6 W | 7.1% winDIV CIN: 75.4 W | 4.9% winDIV
  21. Nestor is a FA after the year, don’t think he punts on his elbow before it falls completely off. He’ll get this PRP, take some time to rest/rehab (& play with the baby), then try to come back strong down the stretch so he can hopefully end the year “healthy” and effective to set himself up the best he can for the winter.
  22. During the 2024 season the Brewers were 6th in runs scored per game and 5th in ERA across all of MLB. In the seven games since the calendar flipped to April the Brewers are 8th in runs scored per game and 3rd in ERA across all of MLB.
  23. Clarke has struck out in 142 of his 403 PAs since arriving in Nashville. That 35.2 K% is 153rd out of 156 batters with at least 400 PAs in AAA since the start of last year. For his AAA career Clarke is at a 12.2 BB% | 35.2K% | .211 ISO. Out of the leadoff spot since 2022 Schwarber is at 14.9 BB% | 29.3 K% | .270 ISO. They are the same kind of hitter, but Schwarber walks more, strikes out less and hits for way more power facing MLB pitchers than Wes has versus AAA arms. Schwarber's production has added up to a 130 wRC+ out of the leadoff spot since 2022, Clarke's production has added up to a 105 wRC+ in the crazy offensive environs of the International League.
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