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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Yeah, all these guys have warts, that's why they are theoretically available to begin with. Even a guy like Rengifo, if the Angels were willing to move him has been absolutely brutal afield as well... 2B (2,460 inn.) -9 DRS | -12 FRV 3B (850 inn.) +1 DRS | -8 FRV SS (625 inn.) -5 DRS | -9 FRV DeJong is maybe the most interesting to me of the "cheap veteran" options, but even then out of 186 players with at least 800 PAs the last two years his 5.0 BB% ranks 173rd and his 31.4 K% ranks 181st which predictably makes his 0.16 BB/K ratio 185th in the sample. If he puts up a .285 BABIP and .200 ISO like he did this year, that shakes out to a perfectly cromulent 95 wRC+. But if his batted balls come in closer to the .264 BABIP and .148 ISO he posted in 2023 you're talking about a lowly 65 wRC+.
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Obviously reading into tiny samples isn't too instructive, but based how things were divvied up last year I'd guess (hope?) the primary AZ alignment ends up as Quintana (SS) Ereu (2B) Ortuno (3B) with guys like Nadal (health pending), Roderick Flroes (132 wRC+ last year), and Moises Polanco (125 wRC+ last year) in more of the bouncing around utility type roles. -
I think Boeve starts in AAA next year along with Dunn. That leaves Wilken and Adams in a timeshare at AA. Juan Baez in Wisconsin, Bitonti in Carolina likely rotating around with some combination of Made and Pena when they aren't playing SS. Impressive DSL performers like Juan Ortuno and Demetrio Nadal probably in the Arizona mix.
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Last four years Polanco has seen his K% go from 18.3% to 21.3% to 25.7 % to 29.2%. His wRC+ over that same stretch has gone from 124 to 118 to 117 to 92. These two things are likely related. His -20 FRV at 2B is the worst among 24 keystoners with at least 2,000 innings since 2021, though DRS thinks he's been closer to scratch at +2. Given he was among the worst defensive SS in MLB from 2016-22 with -40 DRS and -24 FRV, I'd imagine he falls short of the Brewers defensive threshold.
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This seems like a rather large assumption about a guy who once punched a wall after clinching the division.
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I love Adams and had him highest rated out of the third base prospects in the system, but there a couple things that give me pause. There’s a little of that Darrien Miller in there where his profile is so walk and HBP heavy (40 plunks, MLB leader was Arozarena with 22) so that will taper off on the way up. Adams is considerably younger with more power so his walk rate should hold up better, but even there he was at 18.7% this year which is Soto/Judge territory in MLB. Then it’s a gap to Schwarber (15.3%) before another gap down to guys like India/Lowe (12.6%), Winker (12.4%), Freeman (12.2%), Harper (12.0%), Mookie (11.8%), Contreras (11.5%), etc so realistically that’s still Iike a six seven percent drop in a best case scenario by the time he hits MLB. The other red flag for me in his offensive profile is he now has 858 PAs the last two years with a .289 BABIP. The pop ups Spencer mentioned are probably a big part of that.
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- kc hunt
- craig yoho
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During his seven year peak from 1981-87 Fernando threw 1,788 innings. Wade Miley has 1,745 IP over a 14 year career. Sonny Gray is at 1,737 IP over his 12 years in the bigs. The most innings anyone has over the last seven full seasons (plus the sixty game COVID year) is Aaron Nola with 1,432.
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Yeah, Boston is clearly the class of the East and the whole Association. Philly and New York have gotten the offseason hype because of their big moves, but Embiid is still a fraud and New York certainly didn't look much improved on opening night. I'll take a healthy Giannis, Dame and Khris against anybody just a matter of crossing our fingers and praying for eighty two regular season games. The Bucks might not be the favorites, but they have superstars so they at least have a chance. Purgatory in the NBA was the Kohl years. Crazy how fast some forget.
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I'd say DH/1B are more question marks than massive holes. The players who are going to take those PAs are likely already on the roster between Hoskins, Yelich and Contreras with Black as a candidate to fill the Bauers roll from last year. They might bring in some depth around the margins for the 1B/DH group, but the only real massive hole they are likely to devote offseason resources to is replacing Willy.
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I wouldn't be too interested in Rafaela personally. 660 MLB PAs now with a 79 wRC+ and ugly 2.9 BB% versus 27.1 K%. Outfield defense has graded out really well (+12 DRS | +7 FRV in 751 innings), but I'm not sure he's really an infielder with -3 DRS and -6 FRV in his 692 innings at SS.
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Looking at the Red Sox prospects I think a Devin return would be something like...Jedixson Paez (20yo RHP with 96.2 IP of 3.17 FIP with a 29.0 K% and 3.1 BB% between A/A+) and either David Sandlin (23yo Big Stuff development RHP) or Chase Meidroth (23 yo IF who put up a 132 wRC+ in AAA with an 18.8 BB% and 12.7 K%).
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Darrien Miller is a catcher who can't throw anyone out and whose primary offensive skill is getting HBPs. That's like the 2009 Jason Kendall starter kit. He won't keep walking at a 15.9% clip with only a .078 ISO to back it up as he faces more advanced pitching.
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- brewer hicklen
- jake bauers
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Better than hiring Steve Lyons and dropping the pants, I guess??
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Based on the tally RoMu put together in the voting thread it looks like Jadher just missed at #21 by around four points. Though I believe there might be author balloting in addition to the votes published in the thread?
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- carlos f rodriguez
- luis lara
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Agreed. The Giants just signed a very similar player in Matt Chapman and I think Buster Posey will be similarly aggressive this winter. I'd maybe have them at 40%. Braves were in a lot stronger place organizationally when they let Dansby walk. The WS win was only one year ago instead of three. They also only got a 70 wRC+ (28th) and 0.7 WAR (26th) out of their shortstops last year so they have a little more desperation than the Dodgers. I'd say ATL (25%) and LAD (20%) which leaves 15% for the field or the always lurking mystery team. My favorite dark horse to sign Willy is the Pirates. They have the money, they don't have a SS, and what better way to tell your fans you are serious about competing during the Skenes years than by signing the "team leader" away from the team that has dominated the NLC for the last four years he's been here.
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AZ Fall League - Rosters, Schedule, Streaming, etc.
sveumrules replied to nate82's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Think right now the hope would be he becomes something like Frelick at the plate with Perkins defense? That’d be a fine 3rd starting OF or a high end 4th OF kind of outcome. Problem is Frelick needs really good plate discipline (his 0.58 BB/K ranks 37th of 271 players min. 500 PA the last two years) and base running (+4.4 BsR | 42nd) to overcome his complete lack of power (.084 ISO | 268th). Lara hasn’t quite displayed either of those traits to the same levels Sal did in the minors… Lara MiLB 9.5 BB% | 14.9 K% 0.64 BB/K 82 SB / 31 CS Frelick MiLB 10.3 BB% | 11.8 K% 0.88 BB/K 44 SB / 14 CS Obviously the big difference is Sal was an older player farther up the ladder and Luis is still a teenager for another month so he has time on his side, but for now it looks like his offense will come down to how his hit tool shakes out which is a lot riskier without the plate discipline buttressing things. -
Agreed. With one more year of team control over Edman at $9.5M, plus a $5M team option on Rojas coming off a 111 wRC+ | 2.8 WAR season, I’d probably put the Dodgers behind both the Giants and Braves among the potential Adames destinations.
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There are 46 players with at least 600 innings playing third base the last two years. Monasterio has graded out at +4 DRS (17th) and -1 FRV (31st). I’d guess the Brewers internal evaluations are closer to the DRS number otherwise they wouldn’t have kept him around as the primary backup IF last year and given him 142 PAs with a 68 wRC+. McMahon has come in at +27 DRS (3rd) and +14 FRV (2nd). He’s right up there with Ke’Bryan Hayes and Matt Chapman among the games best hot corner defenders.
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They should change it so you get points for doinks. It’s a lot harder to hit one of those skinny little poles than it is to kick it into the big empty space in between them. I’d do two points for a doink that doesn’t go through on a field goal try, and four points for doinked field goal that does go through. It would inject a fun chaos element, introduce additional gambling line items and most importantly allow for this scenario… …two seconds on the clock down three points the trailing team lines up for the game tying kick, it’s up…and it’s off the upright…but goes through for a four point doink off win.
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League average wRC+ at 3B has gone from 100 in 2021 to 105 in 2022 to 96 in 2023 to 97 last year. McMahon has a 101 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021 so he has essentially been average as long as he doesn't face lefties (only a 71 wRC+ against southpaws).
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At the deadline seemed like a lot of people thought the Cardinals stole Fedde giving up only Edman, but here we are now and STL went 3 W - 7 L in Fedde's 10 starts and Edman just won NLCS MVP.
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Everyone has struggles (except John Rocker and Joe Niekro apparently). Whatever struggle Rivera experienced in the postseason was exponentially less than any player ever. Any Yankee fan still clinging to his tiny percentage of unawesome games over the five World Series titles is probably pretty miserable to be around anyway.
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Two pitchers in postseason history have thrown at least 20 innings with a 0.00 ERA. John Rocker and Joe Niekro.
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People complain when a couple wild cards that don’t deserve it get there like last year. People complain when the two dominant historic franchises that were both number one seeds get there. People complain.
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141 innings with a 0.70 ERA in the postseason. Put up a zero eighty six times, allowed one earned nine times. Only gave up two earned once. Was credited with one single solitary loss versus eight wins and forty two saves (twenty nine of which were four outs or more) in ninety six appearances. His +11.38 Win Probability Added in the postseason is more than Schilling (+4.07), Smoltz (+3.35) and Pettite (+3.20) have combined in second through fourth place. Hard for me to classify that as struggles plural.
