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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I think the community being hesitant to go all in on Made is a good thing, especially back in October when there was less information and external accolades available. For one, it shows an element of restraint and more importantly it speaks to the depth of the system that a teenager with a nice bonus and big DSL numbers isn’t automatically vaulted to the #1 spot. I also think BA and other prospect outlets are incentivized somewhat to take more aggressive stances on prospects like Jesus to be “first” or whatever. Shiny New Toy Syndrome. Personally I’ve got Misio, Quero, Pratt and Made in the same tier. If Jesus comes over and keeps his performance up stateside he could put himself into a tier of his own for me, but until then it feels responsible to hedge somewhat when the hype is ramping up this early & he’s still so far away.
  2. sveumrules
    Looks like Bukauskas went unclaimed on waivers and will remain with the organization getting a Spring Training invite.
  3. sveumrules
    Profar cashes in on his big year getting 3/42 from the Braves.
  4. sveumrules
    The quote from the agent was, “I think there’s an argument to be made that a smaller, mid market team might be more beneficial for him as a soft landing.” Classic agent speak loaded with qualifiers…“I think”, “an argument to be made”, “might be more beneficial”. He never once indicated he was speaking on behalf of his client’s desires. Wolfe’s job was to make it seem like it wasn’t a foregone conclusion that Sasaki was signing with the Dodgers, so that’s what he did.
  5. sveumrules
    Sasaki never said any of that, his agent did, to the press.
  6. sveumrules
    2024 ZiPS 50% 95 OPS+ | 1.7 WAR 2024 ZiPS 80% 114 OPS+ | 3.1 WAR 2024 Real Life 117 OPS+ | 3.8 WAR 2025 ZiPS 50% 108 OPS+ | 2.6 WAR 2025 ZiPS 80% 129 OPS+ | 4.0 WAR 2025 Real Life ????????????? I’d like to think Jackson can come in north of his 80th percentile projection again and put up an OPS+ somewhere in the 130’s with a WAR approaching five.
  7. sveumrules
    Using the numbers from the OP there have been five World Series teams in the Brewers general salary range the last ten years - #17, #18, #19, #20 and #28. There have only been two teams to reach the World Series in the higher teens - #11 and #13. The other thirteen World Series teams over the last ten seasons have ranked #8 or higher. Using the current Cot's projections for 2025 the Brewers would have to add about $100M to reach the #8 payroll (Padres currently) and around $70M to reach the #13 payroll (Cubs currently). Neither of those seem like realistic amounts of payroll to add. Even adding $40M to get to #17 (Mariners currently) feels pretty fantasyland. No doubt the Brewers could spend more money, but it isn't really going to make much of a dent. Even an extra $25M would be pretty immaterial relative to the competition.
  8. sveumrules
    Don't really see any significant moves that make any sense. Middleton and Lillard aren't going anywhere. With Brook on an expiring and Bobby having a cheap player option maybe you move one of them for a younger, more athletic big that has a little more team control remaining? Who that is beats me, though. For as much consternation as those four get for being some combination of too old and/or not good enough defensively, the Bucks have been a Top Five defense for the last 31 games now with all four of them playing big minutes (Lillard/Lopez) or rotation minutes (Portis/Khris).
  9. sveumrules
    Already got me looking at the Carolina schedule trying to figure out a week in May or June to take a Zebulon trip.
  10. sveumrules
    Haven’t seen the whole movie yet, but did watch his scene. Perfect casting. Also really enjoyed his performance in Lucky as one of the local characters opposite Harry Dean Stanton, One comforting thing about Lynch passing is he had plenty of longtime collaborators waiting for him on the other side with HDS, the Log Lady, Jack Nance, and the rest. Also thought it was somewhat apropos that fire was so elemental to his work and it was a fire of almost unbelievable intensity and scale that more or less took him out and was one of the last things he experienced.
  11. sveumrules
    There was something on MLBTR a few days back about how Boras/Bregman are still focused on a long term deal. I can see why teams have been hesitant to this point. Gets a lot of his value from pulling homers to the short porch in HOU, has seen his wRC+ drop from 137 to 126 to 118 the last three years, walk rate fell off a cliff from 13.8% over 2018-23 down to a not so nice 6.9% in 2024. Apparently turned down something like Chapman money (6/150) before the Astros pivoted to trading for Paredes and signing Walker. Starting to look like another guy where Boras misread the market.
  12. sveumrules
    Bucks are 7 W - 1 L over the past two weeks since the last post in this thread. Why do I feel like those two things are somehow related? Their season essentially breaks down into four segments so far as we have reached the halfway point... UGLY START (2 W - 8 L) oRTG: 110.6 (19th) dRTG: 115.7 (22nd) netRTG: -5.1 (22nd) EMIRATES CHAMPS (12 W - 3 L) oRTG: 115.7 (10th) dRTG: 110.0 (8th) netRTG: +5.7 (10th) POST CUP HANGOVER (3 W - 5 L) oRTG: 106.3 (26th) dRTG: 107.0 (3rd) netRTG: -0.7 (16th) BACK ON TRACK (7 W - 1 L) oRTG: 120.7 (4th) dRTG: 110.4 (6th) netRTG: +10.3 (5th) LAST 31 GAMES CUMULATIVE (22 W - 9 L) oRTG: 114.5 (11th) dRTG: 109.3 (5th) netRTG: +5.2 (7th) Defense has been holding it down since those first ten games, and the offense has mostly been there outside of the post-Cup stretch where Dame and Giannis missed four games each. Keep everybody healthy, maybe make a stealth deadline move if there is one out there, and the Bucks have as good a chance as anybody at knocking off CLE and/or BOS in the playoffs.
  13. sveumrules
    The Dodgers have an estimated payroll of $351M for next year, the Brewers are at $116M currently. It would take way more than one or two moves to possibly get over that $235M hump. Lets go crazy, sign Alonso & Bregman for $30M each annually over the next six/seven years, trade some big prospects for Luis Robert and Luis Castillo, now we’re only $136M short of the Dodgers. So even with four yuge moves they’d still be a whole team’s payroll behind LAD, and also still well short of teams like HOU, NYY, TEX, TOR, NYM and PHI. I’d rather roll with the status quo since big moves don’t guarantee a World Series win in the present and would hinder the Brewers chances for future success by tying money up in aging players on the decline and thinning out the farm system.
  14. sveumrules
    Yeah, he was granted a fourth option year on account of injury. Roster Resource lists him with one remaining.
  15. sveumrules
    MLBTR write up mentions Elvin has two options left, so have to assume that was a factor. Also looks like he was primarily a starter in the minors with 130 games started and only eight scattered bullpen appearances. They don't have games started for Japan on BRef, but with 88 IP in 49 appearances this past year it looks like he was deployed primarily as a multi inning relief option.
  16. sveumrules
    On the one hand, how Uecker performed as a player on the field was the least remarkable thing about him. But on the other hand, that performance & his attitude about it also served as a springboard to all the unbelievable greatness that came to follow. So I guess it got me curious just how bad Ueck was. Turns out there were 297 players to get at least 800 plate appearances between 1962 and 1967, with Bob notching the following ranks... 146 BB%+ (22nd) | 143 K%+ (266th) | 76 AVG+ (297th) | 67 ISO+ (231st) | 64 wRC+ (283rd) What jumps out right away is that Ueck walked A LOT, especially for someone who couldn't get a hit and had no power. I can't recall one off the top of my head, but maybe he has an anecdote about how his approach in the box was to never swing and just pray for four balls? So my next thought was, does any active player have even a remotely similar profile at the plate? As it turns out, there are 300 players with at least 750 PAs over the last three years, a pretty similar size player pool. And one guy was pretty, pretty close... 146 BB%+ (22nd) | 116 K%+ (241st) | 76 AVG+ (298th) | 69 ISO+ (275th) | 70 wRC+ (292nd) I mean, come on now. The BB%+ and AVG+ are exactly the same, the ISO+ is two percent off, in a nice way. Some of the rankings even line up within a couple spots. Only real difference is this "new" Uecker doesn't strike out as much. So now the question is, does anyone know how Taylor Walls comedic timing is?
  17. sveumrules
    RIP David Lynch. Can only imagine what him and Ueck are talking about in line.
  18. sveumrules
    One under-reported aspect of Uecker's legacy is his charity. Despite retiring with a .200 career batting average he never once campaigned to have it renamed The Uecker Line.
  19. sveumrules
    Sounds like the Mets are out on Pete Alonso after re-upping with Jesse Winker for $7.5M plus incentives.
  20. sveumrules
    Every fastball at Coors is 5,280 feet high to start with.
  21. sveumrules
    There 31 catchers with at least 1,000 PAs since 2021. Over that time Haase's main issues have been walking too infrequently (6.4 BB% | 22nd), and striking out too much (29.7 K% | 30th). On the defensive side there are 48 catchers with at least 1,500 innings since 2021. Haase comes in at -10 DRS (37th), -13.8 FRM (39th), and -17 FRV (43rd). So his primary weaknesses are that his batted ball profile is entirely dependent on balls in play (but there aren't many balls in play because he strikes out so much), and he is a poor defensive catcher. Contreras only caught 120 games last year, and 108 in 2023. I'd imagine he sees a similar number behind the plate again in 2025 with another thirty or forty games at DH.
  22. sveumrules
    Looks like Donovan Solano to the Mariners for one year at $3.5M.
  23. sveumrules
    “Milwaukee Brewers? That’s an MLB team??” -Roki Sasaki, probably.
  24. sveumrules
    Devanney has spent the last two seasons in AAA now. His plate discipline cratered from 11.8 BB% | 18.2 K% in 2023 to 9.0 BB% | 26.0 K% in 2024. He’ll be playing his age 28 season next year. Sure, Clarke never panned out, neither has Devanney. Maybe Cam will yet at some point, but if he were still in MKE he’d have all of Durbin, Dunn, Monasterio & even Vinny Capra ahead of him on the depth chart.
  25. sveumrules
    Rodgers tore his labrum in 2023 and has been worse across the board since though… 2021-22 (3.1 WAR) 6.5 BB% | 18.6 K% .161 ISO | 95 wRC+ 142 wRC+ vs LHP 2023-24 (1.0 WAR) 5.7 BB% | 23.7 K% .137 ISO | 85 wRC+ 106 wRC+ vs LHP
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