sveumrules

There’s a few things at play here I think. The first is that arbitration is separate from those other unconstrained markets you mention. The owners behave collectively so that Arby salaries will grow at a slower rate than those on the open market. The other as it relates to catchers specifically is that the combination of there being so few star offensive catchers, and there being somewhat of a ceiling on catchers performance due to the limited games played and physical toil, adds up to even slower growth than other positions. I also wonder if there wasn’t a little bit of a rising tide lifts all boats effect going on with Wieter’s $5.5M since it was the same year Buster got $8M.

Woah, impressive effort putting this all together. Obviously the international market is it’s whole own thing, but as the draft has seemingly trended towards college players with more robust data profiles, I can’t help but wonder if high school prospects have become somewhat undervalued and if that might be part of the reason we see a lot of the usual suspects atop the list.

Looping Hiura into this is some serious Pepe Silvia level stuff, bravo.

We only have William in the first place after moving Hader because of Money (& his performance blowing up over the two months leading into the 2022 deadline).

Will be interesting to see how the next three years play out for Contreras, Cal Raleigh and Adley Rutschman with all three set to hit free agency at the same time. LAST THREE YEARS Raleigh (1612 PAs | 13.9 WAR) 10.0 BB% | 28.3 K% | 117 wRC+ +29.4 FRM | +33 DRS | 28.4 CS% Rutschman (1795 PAs | 13.3 WAR) 12.0 BB% | 16.2 K% | 121 wRC+ +16.5 FRM | +24 DRS | 21.9 CS% Contreras (1666 PAs | 13.2 WAR) 10.8 BB% | 22.1 K% | 130 wRC+ +14.9 FRM | +7 DRS | 18.9 CS% Pretty close across the board with Raleigh the best defender / worst hitter, Contreras the opposite and Adley the middle man. Steamer likes Contreras (128 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR) and Raleigh (115 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR) a scooch better than Rutschman (124 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) for 2025, while ZiPS has them projected at Raleigh (121 OPS+ | 4.8 WAR), Rutschman (120 OPS+ | 4.6 WAR), and then Contreras (122 OPS+ | 4.2 WAR). Raleigh is the oldest of the three with the lowest profile so he might seem like the most likely to take an extension, but he is also the only Boras client of the three.

So what you're saying is not agreeing to a salary before the deadline doesn't necessarily mean anything with regards to long term contract possibilities?

Good news is the Cubs apparently aren't serious about retaining Tucker after this year (but we already knew that).

My hunch is Contreras wants to be the first $200M catcher topping Joe Mauer's current record deal of 8/184, so any future long term deal with the Brewers is essentially a pipe dream anyway. If the Brewers offered that today they could structure it something like $6M - $10M - $15M for his three remaining Arby years with say a $4M signing bonus which would leave 5/165 ($33M annually) for his "free agent" years covering what would be his age 30 to 34 seasons. Under that structure Contreras first year at $33M would line up with the last guaranteed year of Yelich at $26M. Over the five years that Contreras would hypothetically be making $165M, Chourio is on the books for 4/57 then a couple $25M team options. No doubt the Brewers can afford it, the only question is how much sense it does or doesn't make to tie up such a large amount of resources on the most risky position in the lineup when you already have that player under control for three discounted seasons (& could potentially deal him for a haul at some point along that timeline instead of paying him big money for his thirties).

Rodgers made $3.2M last year and the Rockies non tendered him with a $5.5M Arby's projection from MLBTR, so his salary will likely come down somewhere around that range. Not sure where Moncada ends up, but assuming the medicals aren't too disastrous I'd imagine he'll get more than Rodgers due to having a higher upside with seasons of 3.7 and 5.2 WAR under his belt versus 1.8 WAR for Brendan's career high. Only thing Rodgers really brings to the table at this point is he is still decent against LHP with a 106 wRC+ over 200 PAs against southpaws the last two years, though that is a notable drop off from the 142 wRC+ he posted against LHP over 307 PAs from 2021-22. Otherwise he's a negative base runner, negative fielder at 2B outside of one outlier DRS season, no positional versatility, 76 wRC+ versus RHP the last four years over 1,220 PAs. That's a whole lot of meh with the only real upside being if he rebounded to his 2021-22 levels of lefty mashing.

You left out HR and RBI (in favor of triples?) two of the most important traditional stats to the panel and two where Raleigh has an edge over Contreras. I don’t believe the panel will look at William’s numbers and think he’s earned 900K more than Big Dumper.

Woodruff was a free agent, Contreras is in arbitration, they are two completely different markets. The relevant comparisons are Woodruff versus other injured free agent starting pitchers, and Contreras versus other first year Arby’s catchers. Will Smith got $5.25M, Adley Rutschman got $5.5M, Cal Raleigh got $5.6M. The Brewers offer is perfectly in line with the established market. Every other Brewers player reached an agreement, Contreras chose not to meet in the middle. He only has himself to blame if he goes and gets his feelings hurt unnecessarily.

Looks like Cartaya is going to the Twins for 20yo RHP Jose Vasquez who posted some gaudy K numbers in his second go round in the DSL last summer.

Seventh Seal is iconic, the sentimentality of Wild Strawberries probably makes it his most accessible work, Persona is my personal favourite, Hour of the Wolf if you’re looking for something a little more out there, The Magician has a simple set up and is, dare I say, jaunty - which one doesn’t really expect going into an Ingmar flick. That’s as far as I’ve gotten with his oeuvre though.

I’m not sure Lara is really rising. He put up a 95 wRC+ in Wisco last year and fell from #8 on the BF Top 20 entering the season down to #20 in the most recent iteration. To debut in 2025 would take at least three season ending injuries to current OFers and a huge uptick in performance from Luis at the plate. The glove might be MLB calibre now, but the bat looks to be at least a couple years away.

Maybe at the deadline if the Jays are out of it and Bichette’s performance has rebounded.

Guys whose value is heavily tied up in defense will see the biggest swings in WAR since BRef and FanGraphs use different inputs. BRef uses DRS which had Turang +22, but FanGraphs uses StatCast’s FRV which only had Turang +4. In general DRS values defense more and spits out a wider range of values (+102 to -87 top to bottom on a team level in 2024) where FRV has a much narrower view at +45 to -57 top to bottom on a team level in 2024. For me personally I tend to come down closer to DRS. I figure if the Brewers are going to sell out for defense like they have since Stearns got here (& especially the last two years since Arnold took over), they are more likely doing it thinking they can save half a run or more per game on average versus only like a quarter of a run per game tops with FRV.

Yup. Mauer was done behind the plate at 30, Posey retired at 34, Lucroy’s last good year was at 30, Russell Martin’s last big year was age 33, Brian McCann was done after 33, Yaz Grandal fell of after 32, Posada made it to 35 before the cliff, but that was almost 20 years ago now, Realmuto has fallen off hard since 31. He Who Shall Not Be Named probably had the best longevity of any modern catcher and his last big year was at age 33 before closing it out with a diminished but still solid run from age 34 to 38. Enjoy the next year or two of Contreras, trade him for a haul, and let someone else roll the dice on making him the first $200M catcher.

21: 102 wRC+ | 1.4 WAR 22: 111 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR 23: 122 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR 24: 153 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR Who knows how things will play out post surgery, but Yelich was on his third straight year of improved performance before the back became too much to bear.

Circling back around to the Chourio projection, I was curious how other 20 year olds who got regular playing time ended up performing in their age 21 seasons. Using this leaderboard at FanGraphs it looks there have been 32 players in the Expansion Era to have gotten at least 400 PAs in their age 20 season with Chourio coming in at 117 wRC+ (10th) and 3.9 WAR (9th), not too shabby. For the comparisons below I lopped off 1970 Jack Heidemann who was clearly over matched for his whole career and 1980 Lloyd Moseby (had a nice run with 118 wRC+ and 22.0 WAR from age 23-27 though) at the bottom of the list, then Mike Trout/Alex Rodriguez at the top of the list since they were clearly in a whole other league of their own, plus 2019 Juan Soto & Vlad Junior since their age 21 seasons were in the shortened 2020, which leaves the following 25 players... 1989 Gary Sheffield 20: 405 PAs | 82 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR 21: 547 PAs | 118 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR 2008 Justin Upton 20: 417 PAs | 106 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR 21: 588 PAs | 130 wRC+ | 4.9 WAR 2014 Rougned Odor 20: 417 PAs | 91 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR 21: 470 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR 1997 Edgar Renteria 20: 691 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR 21: 580 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR 1976 Robin Yount 20: 690 PAs | 72 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR 21: 663 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR 1978 Clint Hurdle 20: 481 PAs | 111 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR 21: 204 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR 1971 Cesar Cedeno 20: 649 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 1.3 WAR 21: 625 PAs | 163 wRC+ | 7.8 WAR 1972 Buddy Bell 20: 505 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR 21: 689 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR 1986 Ruben Sierra 20: 411 PAs | 103 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR 21: 696 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR 2010 Starlin Castro 20: 506 PAs | 99 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR 21: 715 PAs | 109 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR 1975 Rick Manning 20: 535 PAs | 102 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR 21: 606 PAs | 116 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR 1992 Ivan Rodriguez 20: 454 PAs | 85 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR 21: 519 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR 1978 Alan Trammell 20: 504 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR 21: 520 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 0.4 WAR 2009 Elvis Andrus 20: 541 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR 21: 674 PAs | 75 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR 1999 Adrian Beltre 20: 614 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR 21: 575 PAs | 116 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR 2015 Carlos Correa 20: 432 PAs | 136 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR 21: 660 PAs | 123 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR 1976 Butch Wynegar 20: 622 PAs | 113 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR 21: 617 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR 1997 Andruw Jones 20: 467 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 3.7 WAR 21: 631 PAs | 113 wRC+ | 7.0 WAR 1975 Claudell Washington 20: 635 PAs | 120 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR 21: 530 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR 1988 Roberto Alomar 20: 611 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR 21: 702 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR 2013 Bryce Harper 20: 497 PAs | 137 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR 21: 395 PAs | 115 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR 2018 Ronald Acuna Jr. 20: 487 PAs | 142 wRC+ | 4.4 WAR 21: 715 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 4.8 WAR 2010 Jason Heyward 20: 623 PAs | 134 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR 21: 456 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 1.9 WAR 2013 Manny Machado 20: 710 PAs | 102 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR 21: 354 PAs | 111 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR 1990 Ken Griffey Jr. 20: 666 PAs | 132 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR 21: 633 PAs | 148 wRC+ | 6.9 WAR So all told I'd say something like 17 of those 25 players (or 19 of 27 if you include Soto and Vlad Jr) have had at least HofVG careers, which is a pretty nice ratio, and I'd break down their progressions from age 20 to age 21 as such... QUANTUM LEAPERS (4 for +17.4 WAR) 1971 Cesar Cedeno (+6.5 WAR), 2008 Justin Upton (+4.3 WAR), 1997 Andruw Jones (+3.3 WAR), 1989 Gary Sheffield (+3.3 WAR) NICE GAINERS (4 for +6.8 WAR) 1972 Buddy Bell (+2.1 WAR), 1990 Ken Griffey Jr. (+1.9 WAR), 2014 Rougned Odor (+1.5 WAR), 1976 Robin Yount (+1.3 WAR) BOUT THE SAMERS (10 for +1.7 WAR) 2010 Starlin Castro (+0.9 WAR), 2015 Carlos Correa (+0.7 WAR), 1975 Rick Manning (+0.6 WAR), 1999 Adrian Beltre (+0.5 WAR), 2018 Ronald Acuna Jr. (+0.4 WAR), 1992 Ivan Rodriguez (+0.1 WAR), 1988 Roberto Alomar (-0.1 WAR), 1997 Edgar Renteria (-0.1 WAR), 1976 Butch Wynegar (-0.6 WAR), 1986 Ruben Sierra (-0.7 WAR) LIL STUMBLERS (2 for -2.4 WAR) 1978 Clint Hurdle (-1.2 WAR), 2009 Elvis Andrus (-1.2 WAR) BIG DROPPERS (5 for -13.0 WAR) 1975 Claudell Washington (-3.7 WAR), 2013 Bryce Harper (-2.5 WAR), 2013 Manny Machado (-2.7 WAR), 2010 Jason Heyward (-2.8 WAR), 1978 Alan Trammell (-2.3 WAR)

The funny thing about Lux is he has kind of come around full circle. When originally drafted he was seen as a high floor, low ceiling hit/field/run guy whose future value was mostly tied up in whether he'd have the chops to stay at shortstop or not. Then he had the power breakout from 2018-19 that vaulted him into consensus Top 5 prospect territory. But it turned out that power breakout was a mirage and he isn't an MLB calibre SS, so he's back to being in that high floor low ceiling range as a strong side platoon 2B that is just kind of okay at everything. Seems like the best realistic case scenario is the Reds get two years of pre-injury 2022 Gavin when he went 113 wRC+ and 2.7 WAR. Best case sorta crazy scenario would be GABP unlocks him and he goes all Scooter Gennett and puts up a couple 125 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR kind of seasons? If they get two years of around the 2024 Lux that went 100 wRC+ and 1.5 WAR, while also failing to make the playoffs (or at least being competitive into September for the first time in a decade & counting), then yeah, they'd probably have been better off keeping the prospect and pick.

Lux return was Mike Sirota (2024 3rd round speed/contact CF from Northeastern) and the 37th pick in the 2025 draft, so Dodgers pretty much picking up two assets with long runways before 40 Man consideration. Dodgers also drafted Sirota in the 16th round of the 2021 draft out of a CT high school and he didn’t sign so they’ve been on him for awhile.

Projecting Yoho for a 3.76 ERA which is a scooch better than the likes of Peguero (3.81), Mears (3.86) and Bukauskas (3.86) is pretty cool. Then seeing KC Hunt next on the list with a 3.87 ERA projection just ahead of guys like Koenig (3.92), Gasser (3.97) and Myers (4.02) is pretty cool too.

Brewers SP were 25th in FIP based WAR last year, but their 4.09 ERA greatly outpaced their 4.52 FIP. That -0.43 differential was the largest gap among all SP groups elevating the Brewers rotation to 18th in runs allowed based WAR. Given the Brewers emphasis on run prevention and consistently getting their pitchers to outperform their peripherals (-0.51 ERA/FIP is the best in MLB the last two years, -0.25 is 3rd going back to 2016) I’m not sure FIP does the best job of capturing the value they provide. As much as Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta got the lions share of the credit during this recent run it was really only in 2021 that we got a truly dominant performance out of the rotation… 2018 11.2 rWAR (15th) | 8.3 fWAR (20th) 2019 9.9 rWAR (16th) | 8.5 fWAR (20th) 2021 22.3 rWAR (2nd) | 20.3 fWAR (2nd) 2022 12.9 rWAR (14th) | 12.5 fWAR (13th) 2023 15.6 rWAR (4th) | 11.2 fWAR (12th) 2024 10.9 rWAR (18th) | 7.3 fWAR (25th)

In a heartbeat. I don't value Casas much as a guy who is already locked into DH/1B at age 25. He's so slow and bad in the field that he needs to put up a 125 wRC+ to approach two WAR. Giolito is washed, at least Civale and Hoskins are still useful. I wouldn't want to include a dead money guy like Rhys in a deal like this anyway, just trade Contreras solo for the best possible return. If I'm sending out three years of Contreras to the Red Sox I'd probably need Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer as co-headliners. Don't really like the BOS pitching prospects or young MLB arms all that much but would probably be looking at a couple guys like Justin Slaten (55 IP of 69 ERA- | 63 FIP- in his MLB debut last year), Luis Perales (big arm just had TJ), Jedixson Paez (96 IP of 3.17 ERA/FIP in A/A+ this year), or Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (89 IP of 2.91 ERA | 3.56 FIP in A/A+ this year) to round out the package.

Last year they were 9 W - 8 L while scoring the 12th most points per game (22.5) and allowing the 10th fewest points per game (20.6). They should finish this year 12 W - 5 L and are currently scoring the 8th most points per game (27.4) and allowing the 6th fewest points per game (19.6). They are currently 5th in point differential after finishing 10th last year. Sounds like you were hoping for them to take a couple two tree steps forward, not just one.