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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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From 2021-23 Bohm put up -40 DRS | -7 FRV at 3B. Last year was his best by the metrics at an even zero DRS and +3 FRV. I think the Brewers would live with average-ish defense at 3B for a good enough bat, but is there enough boom in Bohm’s bat? His K rate has declined from 26.6% in 2021 to 14.2% last year so that’s good. But his walk rate (6.5% career, 6.6% in 2024) is pretty uninspiring and his 102 ISO+ the last two years is barely above average so he’s not really as much of a power bat as his stature might imply. The shape of his production at the plate was pretty suspect last year too with 118 PAs of 365/441/615 thru April 28th followed by 488 PAs of 260/305/409 to finish the year. His 132 wRC+ vs LHP the last two years would be a boost to the Brewers lefty woahs, but of course that means he has a much less impressive 101 wRC+ vs RHP over that same stretch.
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Black was credited with three errors in the 79 innings he played at 3B last year. If the Brewers considered him a candidate to be a full time 3B at the MLB level his inning distribution would have been a lot less first base heavy, 637 innings. Black had more innings in the OF (103) than he did at 3B. -
If it’s the Royals I would guess Noah Cameron and Nick Loftin would be the pair. Loftin has the mix of plate discipline and defensive chops the Brewers like. Cameron is a command and change up guy who has a fringy fastball, but apparently added a cutter this year and would provide additional rotation depth for 2025. Not sure if the Royals would be hesitant to deal Cameron since he’s somewhat of a local kid, Kudma and Wolters would probably be off the table as the top two arms in the system, maybe the Brewers would go for LHP Jordan Woods (high upside play on the complex) or RHP Steve Zobac (126 IP of 3.03 FIP between A+/AA last year) instead.
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Misio had 79.2 IP at Biloxi last year and then another 17.2 at Nashville to finish the season.
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Sasaki isn’t giving up three hundred plus million dollars to come to Milwaukee. I’m guessing his primary motivation is to win World Serieses with his countrymen.
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It’s fun to dream on Sasaki but he’s foregoing three hundred plus million like Yamamoto just got by coming over early so I don’t think money will be much of a factor in his decision. Maybe Nori Aoki was his favourite player growing up and he’s a lifelong Brewer fan as a result. Maybe he’s generous of spirit and understands the most honorable thing to do would be to join a franchise that’s never won a WS before departing for large market riches in FA. Nah, he’s a Dodger.
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Lenyn Sosa has -7 DRS | -2 FRV in 762 innings at 2B. At 3B its -5 DRS | -3 FRV in 482 innings. He’s even managed -2 DRS | -1 FRV in only 41 innings at SS. Throw in -1.4 career BsR and a minuscule 3.1 BB% and he has no soft skills at all. He’s going to need to run a 120 wRC+ minimum to ever have any value. That’s 55 points over his career 65 mark and 40 points over the 80 wRC+ he posted last year. Pass.
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I didn’t say a 2-6 record is a big step up, I said their performance over the last three games has been a big step up compared to the three embarrassing earlier losses.
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Because they aren’t going to win wire to wire tonight? The last two games they lost to the undefeated Cavs by a total of three points, one of those games with no Giannis and the other on a pretty insane last second shot by Mitchell. Cleveland has won their other seven games by a combined 111 points. The last three games have been a big step up compared to the losses to CHI, BRK and MEM.
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In a macro sense as bat only no defense kind of players, sure. Black has way better contact, patience and base running skills. Hiura has better raw power. Ideally Tyler's broader base of skills gives him a higher floor, but it's certainly no guarantee.
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I don’t think the Brewers really have an OF surplus. Chourio is a superstar, Yelich/Mitchell have elevated injury risk and Frelick/Perkins are both glove first light hitting options. If Yelich and Mitchell are hurt at the same time, who is the 4th OF? I’d guess Christian’s DH time ramps up considerably this year too from the couple dozen games he has averaged there the last few seasons which will open up more time on the grass for everyone else.
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- sal frelick
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The Rockies surely value McMahon more highly than they did Mears (regardless of what surplus value might say) so something north of that. I’d think something like Brett Wichrowski and Mike Boeve would be in the neighborhood of what the Rockies would be looking for.
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Last year Bauers got 60 starts at 1B, nine in the OF, and eight at DH, plus 33 pinch hit appearances which added up to 346 PAs. I’d plan to divvy up the starts something like this entering the season… First Base Hoskins (100) Black (62) Designated Hitter Yelich (70) Contreras (42) Hoskins (25) Black (25) That would give Black ten extra starts over Bauers last year, which should get him up around 400 PAs for the year.
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Given Black's overly patient plate approach, I think keeping him in AAA with the more rigid zone any longer could be a detriment at this point. I'd plug him into the Bauers role from last year and see what he does with 400 PAs against MLB pitchers.
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Kim could be an option depending on his medicals. Might end up having to sign a one year deal to prove he’s fully healthy before hitting FA again for that big multi year contract after 2025.
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Something built around Williams to TEX for Josh Smith (add pieces on either side as needed) is probably the best two birds one stone kind of deal they could pull off. Otherwise my best guess is they deal Devin for prospects and trade for an Adames mitigator from the minor league IF/SP depth.
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- rhys hoskins
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They give out the gloves at each of the three OF spots now. Perkins was up against other NL CFers where he came in at +8 DRS (6th) and +9 FRV (9th). Competition wasn’t quite as stacked against Sal in RF where his +16 DRS was eleven runs better than 2nd place, while his +8 FRV was five runs better than the runner up.
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2024 Minor League Transaction Thread
sveumrules replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Bummer. At least time is on his side. Prado was one of only five pitchers in the Arizona Complex League to crack 40 IP in their age 18 season. Melvin Hernandez was the only one that did it in his age 17 season, and his 3.81 FIP was 3rd out of 28 pitchers of any age who threw at least 40 IP in the ACL last year. -
Brewers place Colin Rea on waivers
sveumrules replied to liveforoctober's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Brewers income will be going down next year because of the TV situation. I’d characterize spending less when income decreases as more of a financial reality than sad cheapness. There was never going to be a bunch of anything either way, the position player group that scored the 6th most runs in baseball and posted the 5th highest WAR is losing only one player of consequence. Besides the standard moves around the edges, and barring the out of nowhere surprise deal, the offseason was always going to be essentially two pronged - trade Williams if there is an intriguing offer and try to find someone to mitigate Adames departure. -
Think Bitonti’s placement could play a role in this too. He had a pretty solid showing to end the summer at Carolina with 132 PAs of 131 wRC+, which ranked 3rd out of only 15 players in the league who got at least 100 PAs in their age 18 or younger season. Pretty impressive stuff, but it also came with a .221 AVG and 29.5 K% under the hood so they might want to start him back in Carolina to show a better contact profile before hitting the Midwest League. If he is in Wisco, it makes it a lot easier to start both of Made/Peña in Carolina. Even if Bitonti does open a TRat though, is there enough time for all of Made. Peña, Adamczewski, Di Turi, and Tyler Rodriguez (130 wRC+ as an 18yo in the ACL last year playing mostly SS) in the Carolina infield? Especially after the BA article noting his swing decisions, could also maybe see Jose Anderson skipping Arizona and going straight to the Carolina OF.
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Big difference between Chourio and Hiura is that Jackson had an advanced and diversified skillset that allowed him to put up a productive MLB season at age 20. At age 20 Hiura was still hitting with an aluminum bat at UC-Irvine before a cameo in A ball after getting drafted. It will still be a long hard road for sure, and I'd never expect another Chourio-like ascent from anyone, but Jesus has a lot more in common with Jackson than Keston at this point.
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His contract is enormously underwater. At least coming into 2023, he had been hurt but still performing at an elite level with a 645 PAs of 179 wRC+ over 2021-22 adding up to eight WAR. Now heading into 2025, he has been even more hurt and his production has fallen off considerably with only 488 PAs of 135 wRC+ the last two years for only four WAR. Projecting him for even ten WAR over the next six years seems pretty generous given his current trajectory so the Angels would need to eat over $100M just to get a marginal prospect or two back in return.
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Areinamo vs Wilken is pretty much the safer lower floor prospect versus the boom or bust higher ceiling profile debate personified. Jadher’s speed, defense, contact ability, sneaky pop and baseball acumen make him about a safe a bet as there is for any 20yo in the Midwest League to be a future MLB player. Brock hitz bombz. The end of his season and current AFL run have been ugly no doubt, but from May 8th through July 31st he did put up 303 PAs of 238/340/442 (133 wRC+) with a 13.2 BB% and 23.4 K%. It’s not like he went full on EBJ. As much as we might try to rationalize our internet prospect ballots, a lot of times the dream element works it’s way in there somehow no matter what so ceiling probably wins out more than the real life boom bust ratio indicates it probably should.
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665 pitchers threw at least 20 IP in AAA this year, Logan (and Carlos Rodriguez) were among only 15 in their age 22 season or younger so definitely some Boyz II Men going on. To have already reached AAA even with time missed to injury speaks to how advanced the foundation is. Now just a matter of building off it and seeing if he can crack that 100 IP threshold this year.
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Relative to expectations I’d say they’ve struggled more than the Brewers. No one expects the Brewers to win the World Series, and they don’t. The Dodgers have made the postseason twelve years in a row. Over that time they’ve won 95 more regular season games than the next best team (NYY) that’s an extra eight wins per year. Yet their 64 postseason wins over that stretch are only first by two wins over Houston, who had three fewer postseason trips than the Dodgers. For all their dominance it took them twelve years to win a 162 game World Series. How we gonna expect the Brewers to win one faster than that? If the Packers didn’t really accomplish much by only winning two Super Bowls with Favre/Rodgers, than these Dodgers haven’t really accomplished much yet either.
