sveumrules

Over the last ten years there are 2,755 individual player seasons with at least 300 PAs. 2024 Drury comes in 2,754th at -2.1 WAR. The only player worse than 2024 Drury in the last ten years is 2018 Chris Davis at -2.5 WAR. His 34 wRC+ last year was two points lower than the 36 wRC+ that JBJ posted with the Brewers in 2021.

Ortiz had a 101 ISO+ last year, so its more like two infielders with extremely limited power and one who is around average. Moncada has a 93 ISO+ in the 2020’s so he likely wouldn’t have moved the needle much on the power production front.

Moncada 2019 559 PA | 139 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR 84 BB+ | 120 K+ 124 AVG+ | 125 ISO+ [Even adjusting for heightened leaguewide offense in 2019, Yoan was clearly a big beneficiary of the juiced ball posting career best hit and power numbers.] Moncada 2021 616 PA | 120 wRC+ | 3.7 WAR 161 BB+ | 111 K+ 107 AVG+ | 87 ISO+ [2021 was fine on the surface but was almost entirely propped up by a crazy high outlier walk rate as Yoan’s hit fell off and his power cratered to below league average levels.] Moncada 2022-24 835 PA | 88 wRC+ | 2.2 WAR 84 BB+ | 123 K+ 97 AVG+ | 96 ISO+ [Last three have been injury marred blah. I’m not sure there’s much left to really bounce back to at this point.] Maybe they get 350-400 PAs of league average-ish production?

Putting Quero third is kind of burying the lede here. I wouldn’t give up Jeferson alone, much less the rest of that package on top of it for one year of Cease.

The Bucks are 5.5 games up on the last team in the playoffs at the moment, and that is the Bulls who are selling. They are 6.5 up on the 76ers in the 11 spot. It would pretty much take a catastrophic injury to Giannis, Dame or both for them to miss the playoffs this year.

its been all down hill since Giannis hired Adrian Griffin.

I mean, we are definitely in the tailspin and have been for some time, but that is just the reality of navigating the cap with a Superstar. You sell the future for the now until the bottom completely falls out. Assuming this year ends with another 1st or 2nd round exit, fire Horst and fingers crossed they find some whiz kid to take over who can either rebuild it around Giannis and convince him to stay, or deal him (& Dame) for a haul of assets to kick off what will likely be a long rebuild with teams chock full of AJ Johnsons.

How we got to this point is the 2nd apron restrictions introduced in the new CBA. Getting under now frees them up to aggregate salaries to make another move if so inclined. As much as I love Midds and the offensive game is still there, this last ankle(s) procedure(s) seem to have really sapped his lateral movement on defense and has further limited his already tenuous minutes / availability situation. Thanks for everything Khris, and sorry it had to be Washington in the end. Hopefully they can reroute him somewhere relevant like POR did with Jrue. Never been a big Kuzma fan, but with a hopeful motivation / performance boost from getting out of DC and next to Giannis, 2025 Kyle should be better than 2025 Khris.

Not a graphic, but will a string of numbers and acronyms suffice? 2024: LAD, NYY, CLE, NYM, DET, KCR, SDP 2023: TEX, ARI, HOU, PHI, MIN 2022: SEA 2021: ATL, BOS 2020: TBR, OAK, MIA 2019: WAS, STL 2018: MIL 2017: CHC 2016: TOR 2014: SFG, BAL 2009: LAA 2007: COL 2005: CHW 1995: CIN 1979: PIT

Circling back around to the Chourio projection, I was curious how other 20 year olds who got regular playing time ended up performing in their age 21 seasons. Using the leaderboards at FanGraphs it looks there have been 32 players in the Expansion Era to have gotten at least 400 PAs in their age 20 season with Chourio coming in at 117 wRC+ (10th) and 3.9 WAR (9th), not too shabby. For the comparisons below I lopped off 1970 Jack Heidemann who was clearly overmatched for his whole career and 1980 Lloyd Moseby (had a nice run with 118 wRC+ and 22.0 WAR from age 23-27 though) at the bottom of the list, then Mike Trout/AlexRodriguez at the top of the list since they were clearly in a whole other league of their own, plus 2019 Juan Soto & Vlad Junior since their age 21 seasons were in the shortened 2020, which leaves the following 25 players... 1989 Gary Sheffield 20: 405 PAs | 82 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR 21: 547 PAs | 118 wRC+ | 2.9 WAR 2008 Justin Upton 20: 417 PAs | 106 wRC+ | 0.6 WAR 21: 588 PAs | 130 wRC+ | 4.9 WAR 2014 Rougned Odor 20: 417 PAs | 91 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR 21: 470 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR 1997 Edgar Renteria 20: 691 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR 21: 580 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR 1976 Robin Yount 20: 690 PAs | 72 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR 21: 663 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR 1978 Clint Hurdle 20: 481 PAs | 111 wRC+ | 1.2 WAR 21: 204 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR 1971 Cesar Cedeno 20: 649 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 1.3 WAR 21: 625 PAs | 163 wRC+ | 7.8 WAR 1972 Buddy Bell 20: 505 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR 21: 689 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR 1986 Ruben Sierra 20: 411 PAs | 103 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR 21: 696 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR 2010 Starlin Castro 20: 506 PAs | 99 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR 21: 715 PAs | 109 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR 1975 Rick Manning 20: 535 PAs | 102 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR 21: 606 PAs | 116 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR 1992 Ivan Rodriguez 20: 454 PAs | 85 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR 21: 519 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 2.4 WAR 1978 Alan Trammell 20: 504 PAs | 90 wRC+ | 2.7 WAR 21: 520 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 0.4 WAR 2009 Elvis Andrus 20: 541 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR 21: 674 PAs | 75 wRC+ | 2.1 WAR 1999 Adrian Beltre 20: 614 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR 21: 575 PAs | 116 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR 2015 Carlos Correa 20: 432 PAs | 136 wRC+ | 3.4 WAR 21: 660 PAs | 123 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR 1976 Butch Wynegar 20: 622 PAs | 113 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR 21: 617 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR 1997 Andruw Jones 20: 467 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 3.7 WAR 21: 631 PAs | 113 wRC+ | 7.0 WAR 1975 Claudell Washington 20: 635 PAs | 120 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR 21: 530 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR 1988 Roberto Alomar 20: 611 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR 21: 702 PAs | 110 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR 2013 Bryce Harper 20: 497 PAs | 137 wRC+ | 4.1 WAR 21: 395 PAs | 115 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR 2018 Ronald Acuna Jr. 20: 487 PAs | 142 wRC+ | 4.4 WAR 21: 715 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 4.8 WAR 2010 Jason Heyward 20: 623 PAs | 134 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR 21: 456 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 1.9 WAR 2013 Manny Machado 20: 710 PAs | 102 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR 21: 354 PAs | 111 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR 1990 Ken Griffey Jr. 20: 666 PAs | 132 wRC+ | 5.0 WAR 21: 633 PAs | 148 wRC+ | 6.9 WAR So all told I'd say something like 17 of those 25 players (or 19 of 27 if you include Soto and Vlad Jr) have had at least HofVG careers, which is a pretty nice ratio, and I'd break down their progressions from age 20 to age 21 as such... QUANTUM LEAPERS (4 for +17.4 WAR) 1971 Cesar Cedeno (+6.5 WAR), 2008 Justin Upton (+4.3 WAR), 1997 Andruw Jones (+3.3 WAR), 1989 Gary Sheffield (+3.3 WAR) NICE GAINERS (4 for +6.8 WAR) 1972 Buddy Bell (+2.1 WAR), 1990 Ken Griffey Jr. (+1.9 WAR), 2014 Rougned Odor (+1.5 WAR), 1976 Robin Yount (+1.3 WAR) BOUT THE SAMERS (10 for +1.7 WAR) 2010 Starlin Castro (+0.9 WAR), 2015 Carlos Correa (+0.7 WAR), 1975 Rick Manning (+0.6 WAR), 1999 Adrian Beltre (+0.5 WAR), 2018 Ronald Acuna Jr. (+0.4 WAR), 1992 Ivan Rodriguez (+0.1 WAR), 1988 Roberto Alomar (-0.1 WAR), 1997 Edgar Renteria (-0.1 WAR),1976 Butch Wynegar (-0.6 WAR), 1986 Ruben Sierra (-0.7 WAR) LIL STUMBLERS (2 for -2.4 WAR) 1978 Clint Hurdle (-1.2 WAR), 2009 Elvis Andrus (-1.2 WAR) BIG DROPPERS (5 for -13.0 WAR) 1975 Claudell Washington (-3.7 WAR), 2013 Bryce Harper (-2.5 WAR), 2013 Manny Machado (-2.7 WAR), 2010 Jason Heyward (-2.8 WAR), 1978 Alan Trammell (-2.3 WAR)

The Brewers have won at least 86 games every full season going back to 2017. Not sure if BPro has a historical projections easily accessible, but the Brewers are an MLB best +71 wins over the eight full seasons in the FanGraphs database. The Dodgers are second at +54 wins so it’s by no small margin either. Posted this on the message board side with regards to the ZiPS Chourio projection, but I’ll drop it in here too as I think it does a pretty good job illustrating the range and likelihoods of various potential outcomes for Jackson next year…

Yeah, from 2012-19 the Nationals won the second most games in MLB, were over .500 every season, and made the playoffs five times. Even with all that success and a Top Ten payroll most of those seasons, they were bounced in the NLDS their first four postseason trips before finally breaking through and winning the World Series in 2019. And they needed a fair share of luck just to get out of the Wild Card game that year as we all remember too well. Since then it's all fallen apart. Five straight losing seasons en route to the tying the Rockies for the fewest wins in the 2020's plus the Mets, Braves and Phillies more or less guaranteeing them another 4th or 5th place division finish this year.

Iglesias has a career OPS of .710. In the ten seasons he has gotten at least 150 PAs he has cracked a .775 OPS twice. The last time Jose had an above average glove at SS was in 2019 when he posted +5 DRS | +11 FRV. Since then he’s posted -29 DRS | +2 FRV. Odds are much greater that Iglesias is a .700 OPS 2B at this point than a .775 OPS SS.

The chances that Jake Bauers would play any outfield with the Brewers were slim this time last year too, and he ended up starting seven games in LF and two games if RF.

It comes from people who have watched him play… ”It’s a big enough issue that I have him projected to first base and will speculate he’ll eventually play the outfield corner, as well.” -FG 2024 report ”For a while now there has been doubt about Black’s ability to play the infield, and he started seeing time in the outfield in 2022, especially during the Arizona autumn. The look out there was brief, in part because of the injured thumb, but early returns are positive and Black might be able to play out there.” -FG 2023 report Numerous posters on the minor league forum who watch the affiliates daily have also noted their belief that OF is Black’s best spot defensively.

Even if Hoskins is healthy all year, he won't play 162 games. One day off a week to keep him fresh and one day a week at DH would open around 50 games for Black at 1B. Give Tyler one game a week in the DH spot and he's up around 75 starts. Throw in a handful of random OF games like Bauers got last year and he's starting something like half the games and can probably rack up another 30 PAs or so as a pinch hitter (Bauers had 33 last year). Should be able to get Black 350-400 PAs pretty easy if everyone is healthy. Any time Hoskins or Yelich miss with injury just opens more opportunities.

DeJong’s surface level results were decent last year with a 95 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR. But his 4.8 BB% coupled with a 32.4 K% gave him the 205th ranked BB/K ratio out of 207 players with at least 400 PAs in 2024. His .227 batting average was a step up from the .192 mark he posted collectively from 2021-23 though. No walks and no hits means his .268 OBP from 2021-24 comes in 170th out of 170 players with at least 1,500 PAs over that stretch. His 68 wRC+ vs LHP is 256th out of 266 players with at least 300 PAs vs southpaws since 2021. So on offense we’re talking about a guy whose whole value is wrapped up in how many HR he does or doesn’t pop. His SS defense also fell off from 0 DRS | +6 FRV in 2023 down to -9 DRS | -1 FRV in 2024. Could be fluky one year defensive metrics, could be a sign that he’s just not a SS anymore. That offensive profile at 3B? Woof. Seems like a lot of red flags there.

Portland started the year 8 W - 18 L, but are 10 W - 11 L over the last month plus so they have been playing more like a mediocre team than a bad one of late. Bucks are 4 W - 4 L on the second game of a back to back so far this year. Considering they are one of the oldest teams in the NBA that is about the best one can really hope for. Watching the game last night it was pretty clear they just ran out of gas. Missing two regular rotation players in Bobby and AJG, plus having to contend with Scott Foster on a B2B = scheduled loss.

Because in addition to rarely walking or barely hitting for any power he is also a below average base runner (-5.0 BsR from 2022-24) and was so bad at 2B (-24 FRV) that he is pretty much 1B only now…and he hasn’t been too good there either with -6 FRV career in 1,152 innings. Add it all up and last year his .314 batting average shook out to a 109 wRC+ and 1.1 WAR. He should bounce back some, but posting career worst walk rate, isolated slugging and xwOBA numbers while falling to the bottom of the defensive spectrum is pretty concerning.

I dunno. Defense really seemed to start clicking once AJJ entered the starting lineup. Bucks 109.5 dRTG is 6th in the NBA going back to his first start on 11/07. AJG is shooting .442 from deep and his +6.7 On/Off is second on the team behind only Giannis among guys getting regular minutes. Rollins has made a strong case for his two way deal to be converted to a standard contract with a +8.5 On/Off in his limited minutes so far this year. None of these guys are stars by any means, but they all look like guys capable of getting playoff minutes this year (AJJ/AJG) or somewhere down the road (RR).

I think Yelich will be primarily DH, but still play some LF against LHP and/or when Contreras is in the DH spot.

Pressly 2018-22 (among 143 RP min. 150 IP) 258 IP (24th) | 150 K%+ (7th) | 78 BB%+ (23rd) | 61 HR9+ (28th) | 83 AVG+ (20th) | 61 ERA- (8th) | 57 FIP- (5th) | 7.8 rWAR (3rd) | 7.8 fWAR (4th) | +7.42 WPA (8th) Pressly 2023-24 (among 130 RP min. 90 IP) 122 IP (43rd) | 112 K%+ (61st) | 80 BB%+ (29th) | 74 HR9+ (56th) | 98 AVG+ (92nd) | 86 ERA- (71st) | 78 FIP- (33rd) | 0.9 rWAR (75th) | 1.9 fWAR (32nd) | -0.21 WPA (95th) Pressly was an easy Top 10 reliever for the 2018-22 period, but has been a lot more human the last two years with his K rate falling off in correspondence with losing his ability to limit hits resulting in pretty pedestrian results in terms of run prevention and leverage performance.

Adames and Contreras were pretty big trade acquisitions.

Bingo. Cot's has the Dodgers up over $300M, there are three more teams (NYY, NYM, PHI) just under that amount by ten fifteen million. There are another five (SDP, ATL, TEX, HOU, TOR) around $210M to $240M. The Brewers could add $50M to overtake the Orioles for the 15th highest payroll in MLB and still be $50M short of the fifth spendiest team in the NL (SDP) and $20M short of the Cubs. Given the disparities they are up against there really isn't that much difference between running a $110M and a $160M payroll. Making a couple big moves wouldn't come close to getting them over any kind of hump.

Jumping in on the Areinamo talk, it looks like he just missed the Top 20 back in October by four points (thanks for the in thread tabulations @Ro Mueller) so if one person that didn't vote would have cast a ballot with Jadher at #16 or higher he would have snuck in the last spot. Gotta start with the hit tool. There are 435 players in the minors with at least 800 PAs the last two years. Jadher's .303 average is tied for 10th while his 11.7 K% is 13th lowest in the sample. That's pretty remarkable, borderline elite kind of stuff. Unfortunately his 5.6 BB% is also 13th lowest in the sample, so if he isn't getting hits he isn't getting on base. The power has also been questionable in the past, though he did make some progress there last year with 30 doubles and 10 bombs at Wisco adding up to a .141 ISO that was above the .124 league average in the MWL. Nice stolen base numbers with 48 SB / 13 CS the last two years, but sounds like he is more of a smart base runner than a certified burner kind of guy? As good as the defense is, I think most view him as more of a really good 2B at the MLB level who could play some SS and be fine, and not quite having the power to fit the typical everyday 3B people like to think of. His game breakdown the last two years has been 112 (2B) 50 (3B) 38 (SS). Ultimately it feels like his top end realistic outcome to me is maybe something like Kolten Wong circa 2014-20. A guy who could put up around league average offense (98 wRC+) with plus base running (+18.8 BsR) and defense (+52 DRS). Failing that, it seems like he has the well rounded toolset of a guy who could have a long career as a utility man so more of a medium ceiling, high floor kind of prospect. Not long ago, this is an easy Top Ten prospect in the system. Based on where my own personal tier breaks are I started considering him with others around #18. I ended up going with Luis Lara, Jose Anderson, and Ernesto Martinez for those last three spots mostly because we are thinner organizationally in OF/1B prospects than we are in IF prospects.