sveumrules

If Yelich is good for 130 games next year (BIG IF) my guess is it would shake out something like 90 at DH and 40 in LF.

Perdomo is theoretically available because the DBacks have Jordan Lawlar in the pipeline, though it appears he only played 23 games in the minors this year dealing with a variety of injuries. As for Geraldo's game, out of 324 players with at least 500 PAs over the least two years his standout traits are a 132 BB%+ (49th) and a 73 K%+ (51st) leading to a nice 0.69 BB/K rate (19th) on the good side, but only a 66 ISO+ (287th) on the bad side. That excellent plate discipline and underwhelming power output combined with a slightly above average hit tool (104 AVG+) adds up to a 99 wRC+ for the whole hitting package. The aux skills come in at 25 SB / 5 CS the last two years with his +4.6 BSR ranking 44th despite only having 40th percentile 27.0 ft/sec sprint speed, while his fielding at SS has graded out at +6 by DRS and an even zero by both of StatCasts's Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value.

Per Cot's... Guarantees ($78.25M): Yelich ($24M), Hoskins ($18M), Williams ($10.5M), Peralta ($8M), Rea ($5.5M), Woodruff ($5M), Chourio ($4M), Ashby ($3.25M) Buyouts ($3.5M): don't know if they count on the 2024 or 2025 payroll, but Montas ($2M), Miley ($1.5M) Arbitration (???): number is parentheses is 2024's number so some degree of raise will occur based on performance, Civale ($4.9M), Milner ($2.05M), Payamps ($1.65M), Bauers ($1.35M), Wilson (1.025M), Haase ($1M). Out of those guys I would guess only Civale, Payamps and Haase are back for OD 2025. It is also Contreras, Megill and Mears first years of arbitration. Would guess Contreras will probably come in around the $5.25M that Will Smith got in his first Arby's trip. Everyone else is pre-Arby's so essentially $750-800K based on service time.

Urias as a target would probably be a case of how do the Brewers assess his defense? DRS has him +13 career at 3B in 2,184 innings compared to StatCast having him down for -8 FRV at 3B. Another issue could be his lack of walks. Brewers ran the 2nd highest BB% in MLB this year, 3rd highest in 2023, 4th highest in 2022. Urias has a 7.0% walk rate since 2022 which ranks 159th out of 230 batters with at least 1,000 PAs.

Peralta, Myers, Rea, Civale will all be back. Woodruff and Gasser coming off injury. Front office could still view Hall or Ashby as rotation options next year. Misio, Logan Henderson, KC Hunt, Shane Smith, Chad Patrick, Carlos Rodriguez at AAA. I'm sure they'll add some more depth options around the edges, but I don't really foresee any big payroll type additions to the staff.

The same bull headed determination that got him to 4,256 prevented him from owning up to his betting on baseball, and ultimately getting into the Hall. His life was essentially like a Greek Tragedy on AstroTurf.

For additional context on some of the other categories, here are the 2024 Brewers ranks out of 300 individual team seasons over the last decade... 217 stolen bases (2nd) +14.25 bullpen WPA (2nd) -0.54 ERA / FIP (3rd) +19.8 BsR (4th)

Yeah, they have a column for Infield Hits under the batted ball tab on FanGraphs. Brewers were 1st there too at 147 with PIT (141) and PHI (140) a few behind them. Going back to 2014 those 147 Infield Hits rank 13th out of 300 individual team seasons in the last decade.

Believe Wande Torres had some reports of velo in the 95 MPH range this year coming back after surgery.

DRS turns out more extreme results for sure. They had TOR 1st with +106 and the White Sox last with -88. StatCast's FRV also had TOR in 1st and the White Sox in last, but their spread was only from +45 on the top to -57 on the bottom. Brewers were 5th here at +29. Based on how much stock the Brewers have been putting in defense for the last almost a decade now my best guess is their internal model spits out results closer to DRS than to FRV.

With 28 of the 30 teams victory totals in the books for the year I thought I would update the tallies here. Format is...TEAM (24 proj. wins | 24 actual wins | difference) with the fourth column representing the updated 2016-24 full season cumulative difference... MIL (80 | 93 | +13 | +71) CLE (80 | 92 | +12 | +24) KCR (76 | 86 | +10 | -37) SDP (83 | 93 | +10 | -31) PHI (85 | 95 | +10 | +17) NYY (87 | 94 | +7 | +27) BAL (84 | 91 | +7 | +9) DET (79 | 86 | +7 | -43) WAS (65 | 71 | +6 | -19) ARI (84 | 89 | +5 | +12) LAD (94 | 98 | +4 | +54) BOS (79 | 81 | +2 | +7) CHC (82 | 83 | +1 | -4) SEA (85 | 85 | 0 | +36) STL (83 | 83 | 0 | +9) COL (62 | 61 | -1 | +15) OAK (71 | 69 | -2 | -9) PIT (78 | 76 | -2 | -14) CIN (79 | 77 | -2 | -10) HOU (91 | 88 | -3 | +38) MIN (85 | 82 | -3 | -16) SFG (83 | 80 | -3 | -9) TEX (82 | 78 | -4 | -4) TBR (85 | 80 | -5 | +38) TOR (84 | 74 | -10 | -30) LAA (78 | 63 | -15 | -67) MIA (81 | 62 | -19 | -40) CHW (66 | 41 | -25 | -50)

For a more team-centric view, here are a few categories where the Brewers excelled... Walk Percentage 01. NYY 10.8 % 02. MIL 9.7% 03. LAD 9.6% Stolen Bases 01. WAS 223 02. MIL 217 03. CIN 207 Baserunning 01. MIL +19.8 runs 02. CIN +15.7 runs 03. ARI +12.5 runs Defensive Runs Saved 01. TOR 106 02. CLE 81 03. MIL 64 PAs w/ RISP 01. ARI 1,741 02. MIL 1,726 03. LAD 1,700 OPS w/ RISP 01. ARI .852 02. MIL .809 03. NYY .809 Runs Scored w/ 2 Outs 01. MIL 332 02. LAD 325 03. ARI 321 Park/League Adjusted ERA- 01. ATL 84 02. MIL 88 93. KCR 89 ERA / FIP differential 01. MIL -0.54 02. CLE -0.38 03. NYY -0.30 Bullpen WPA 01. CLE +15.62 02. MIL +14.25 03. ATL +7.75 Left on Base Percentage 01. MIL 76.7% 02. CLE 75.7% 03. HOU 75.2%

NEW PITCHERS (+12.1 rWAR) Tobias Myers 24 (138.0 IP | 73 ERA- | 3.5 rWAR) Bryan Hudson 24 (62.1 IP | 42 ERA- | 2.7 rWAR) Aaron Civale 24 (74.0 IP | 85 ERA- | 1.6 rWAR) Jared Koenig 24 (62.0 IP | 60 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Robert Gasser 24 (28.0 IP | 62 ERA- | 0.9 rWAR) Joe Ross 24 (74.0 IP | 91 ERA- | 0.7 rWAR) Enoli Paredes 24 (20.2 IP | 42 ERA- | 0.7 rWAR) Jakob Junis 24 (26.0 IP | 59 ERA- | 0.6 rWAR) Frankie Montas 24 (57.1 IP | 110 ERA- | 0.3 rWAR) DL Hall 24 (42.0 IP | 122 ERA- | 0.0 rWAR) Dallas Keuchel 24 (16.2 IP | 131 ERA- | 0.0 rWAR) Nick Mears 24 (12.1 IP | 177 ERA- | -0.3 rWAR) NEW POSITIONALS (+7.2 WAR) Jackson Chourio 24 (573 PAs | 117 wRC+ | 3.9 WAR) Joey Ortiz 24 (511 PAs | 104 wRC+ | 3.1 WAR) Gary Sanchez 24 (280 PAs | 96 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Eric Haase 24 (69 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Rhys Hoskins 24 (517 PAs | 100 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR) Oliver Dunn 24 (104 PAs | 68 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR) Jake Bauers 24 (346 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 0.0 WAR) Black/Collins/Capra/Hicklen 24 (90 PAs | bad wRC+ | -0.6 WAR)

HOLDOVER PITCHERS (-7.4 rWAR) Trevor Megill (+0.9 rWAR) 23 (34.2 IP | 83 ERA- | 0.4 rWAR) 24 (46.1 IP | 66 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) Colin Rea (+0.7 rWAR) 23 (124.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) 24 (167.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 2.0 rWAR) Freddy Peralta (+0.6 rWAR) 23 (165.2 IP | 88 ERA- | 2.9 rWAR) 24 (173.2 IP | 89 ERA- | 3.5 rWAR) Aaron Ashby (+0.4 rWAR) 23 (DID NOT PITCH DUE TO INJURY) 24 (28.1 IP | 69 ERA- | 0.4 rWAR) Bryse Wilson (-0.3 rWAR) 23 (76.2 IP | 59 ERA- | 1.3 rWAR) 24 (104.2 IP | 98 ERA- 1.0 rWAR) Elvis Peguero (-0.4 rWAR) 23 (61.1 IP | 77 ERA- | 1.0 rWAR) 24 (51.1 IP | 72 ERA- | 0.6 rWAR) Joel Payamps (-0.8 rWAR) 23 (70.2 IP | 58 ERA- | 1.8 rWAR) 24 (59.0 IP | 74 ERA- | 1.0 rWAR) Abner Uribe (-1.3 rWAR) 23 (30.2 IP | 40 ERA- | 0.9 rWAR) 24 (14.1 IP | 167 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Devin Williams (-1.5 rWAR) 23 (58.2 IP | 35 ERA- | 2.9 rWAR) 24 (21.2 IP | 30 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Hoby Milner (-2.3 rWAR) 23 (64.1 IP | 42 ERA- | 1.9 rWAR) 24 (64.2 IP | 115 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Wade Miley (-3.4 rWAR) 23 (120.1 IP | 79 ERA- | 3.3 rWAR) 24 (7.0 IP | 156 ERA- | -0.1 rWAR) HOLDOVER POSITIONALS (+2.3 WAR) Brice Turang (+2.7 WAR) 23 (448 PAs | 61 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) 24 (619 PAs | 87 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR) Garrett Mitchell (+1.5 WAR) 23 (73 PAs | 103 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) 24 (224 PAs | 126 wRC+ | 1.8 WAR) Willy Adames (+1.4 WAR) 23 (638 PAs | 94 wRC+ | 3.3 WAR) 24 (688 PAs | 119 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) Blake Perkins (+0.6 WAR) 23 (168 PAs | 89 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR) 24 (434 PAs | 83 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR) Sal Frelick (+0.5 WAR) 23 (223 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) 24 (524 PAs | 86 wRC+ | 1.6 WAR) William Contreras (-0.3 WAR) 23: (611 PAs | 125 wRC+ | 5.7 WAR) 24: (679 PAs | 131 wRC+ | 5.4 WAR) Andruw Monasterio (-0.7 WAR) 23 (315 PAs | 88 wRC+ | 0.5 WAR) 24 (142 PAs | 68 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) Christian Yelich (-0.8 WAR) 23 (632 PAs | 122 wRC+ | 3.8 WAR) 24 (315 PAs | 153 wRC+ | 3.0 WAR) Owen Miller (-1.1 WAR) 23 (314 PAs | 81 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) 24 (27 PAs | 8 wRC+ | -0.2 WAR) Joey Wiemer (-1.5 WAR) 23 (410 PAs | 75 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) 24 (27 PAs | -6 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR)

DEPARTING PITCHERS (6.0 rWAR lost) Corbin Burnes 23 (193.2 IP | 78 ERA- | 4.8 rWAR) Brandon Woodruff 23 (67.0 IP | 52 ERA- | 2.8 rWAR) Adrian Houser 23 (111.1 IP | 94 ERA- | 1.4 rWAR) Julio Teheran 23 (71.1 IP | 101 ERA- | 0.8 rWAR) Peter Strzelecki 23 (35.2 IP | 104 ERA- | 0.1 rWAR) Andrew Chafin 23 (17.0 IP | 133 ERA- | -0.4 rWAR) Eric Lauer 23 (46.2 IP | 150 ERA- | -0.8 rWAR) Everybody Else 23 (about a 100 ugly IP | -2.7 rWAR) DEPARTING POSTIONALS (0.9 WAR lost) Victor Caratini 23 (226 PAs | 95 wRC+ | 1.1 WAR) Tyrone Taylor 23 (243 PAs | 88 wRC+ | 1.0 WAR) Mark Canha 23 (204 PAs | 120 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR) Carlos Santana 23 (226 PAs | 107 wRC+ | 0.7 WAR) Brian Anderson 23 (361 PAs | 86 wRC+ | 0.3 WAR) Mike Brosseau 23 (78 PAs | 74 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR) Luke Voit 23 (74 PAs | 53 wRC+ | -0.4 WAR) Rowdy Tellez 23 (351 PAs | 78 wRC+ | -0.7 WAR) Jesse Winker 23 (197 PAs | 66 wRC+ | -0.8 WAR) Dnldsn/Urias/Tapia/Jon/Ruf/Toro 23 (281 PAs | bad wRC+ | -0.8 WAR)

Well dang, the Brewers went and won themselves 93 games. How they do that? I thought it might be interesting to see how exactly they got there so I split the roster up into departing players, holdovers and new additions. Then split those groups into pitcher and position player groups. Here's what all that looks like...

Wenderlyn King was ROBBED. K% Wenderlyn (25.9%) Jaquez (23.6%) Aparicio (21.0%) Bravo (18.9%) BB% Wenderlyn (3.6%) Aparicio (5.6%) Bravo (8.9%) Jaquez (13.0%) HR/9 Wenderlyn (0.24) Jaquez (0.29) Bravo (0.40) Aparicio (0.94) FIP Wenderlyn (3.07) Bravo (4.24) Aparicio (4.37) Jaquez (4.65) I'd have King, Wande Torres and Hayden Robinson as the top three with a decent bit of separation between them and everyone else because their results were just on a whole different level. I'd probably have Melvin Hernandez ahead of everyone in the article too. Only 17 this season but already put up 46 IP with a 3.81 FIP in Arizona while everyone else was still on the island.

Narv Dawg could swing it too. 4th all time among Brewers pitchers (min. 50 PAs ) with a 44 wRC+, just fractions ahead of Sabathia (42 wRC+) and Gallardo (41 wRC+). He had as many RBI (12) as Sheets in 362 fewer PAs. Randy Wolf and Zack Greinke are the only Brewers pitchers to record a stolen base. Can't help but wonder if maybe they had some kind of contest going on similar to their gentlemanly rivalry over who could throw the slowest curveball.

They can proudly display their Week Four Champions trophy in the lobby.

Beating the always hated Cardinals and Counsell managed Cubs 8 W - 5 L each in the season series was pretty sweet. Rocking Stearns Mets and their $340M payroll 5 W - 0 L has been a whole other sensation.

Yeah, it’s small samples all around… 23 at 2B 197 inn | +2 DRS 24 at 2B 118 inn | +2 DRS 23 at 3B 456 inn | +6 DRS 24 at 3B 164 inn | -2 DRS …definitely better last year than this year at 3B, but like you said 2023 is also the largest of his individual samples by a considerable amount. Also did much better last year vs LHP with a 118 wRC+ over 93 PAs compared to only a 68 wRC+ over 67 PAs vs LHP this year.

+8 DRS the last two years in 935 innings at 2B/3B.

For whatever it is or isn't worth, Pythag says the Cubs had played five wins below their run differential entering today. Give the Cubs five extra wins and they are right in the thick of the Wild Card race.

So you exchange Patrick for one of the pitchers currently on the roster.

- 2 DRS this year at 2B is maybe live-with-able if the bat bounces back, but if the Brewers view his defense closer to the -8 FRV he has posted this year at 2B (-20 FRV for his career there) its probably a no go from the start.