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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yeah, Smith has been one of the best pitchers in all of the minor leagues the last two years. Among 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP over that stretch he ranks… 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th) I can’t help but wonder if there wasn’t some element of “do right by the player” going on here, similar to when they dealt Erceg to Oakland. Even if the Brewers added Smith to the 40 Man, he still would have had a long road to earning consistent time on the 26 Man with the amount of bullpen depth the Brewers have. Leaving him unprotected for the R5 gives him an immediate path to a long leash earning service time & MLB salary on the 26 Man, which as an undrafted free agent with a lengthy injury history is pretty a big deal.
  2. sveumrules
    “After a strong MLB debut in 2024, Black played only seven games before being sent down.” Probably because he was hitting 227/261/318 after those seven games. ”Despite continued success in the minors” Black hit for a combined 145 wRC+ at AA/AAA in 2023, but fell off significantly to a 114 wRC+ in AAA last year. ”Black was repeatedly sent back down to make room for other players, like Garrett Mitchell.” Probably because Mitchell is a GG calibre CF who has hit for a 123 wRC+ over 365 career MLB PAs, while Black isn’t either of those things.
  3. sveumrules
    I personally had him #20 in the last vote we did, but the main factors holding him back for those that don’t have him that high would be… 1) depth of the system. last balloting there were 15 more or less consensus guys who showed up on at least 24 of the 27 ballots and KC Hunt was on 21 of the 27 at #16. 2) he’s been old for his level every step of the way and is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum as a 1B prospect. 3) outside of his last 200 PAs of 2024 his production has always been more good than OMG WHA HAPPEND so there’s still some question if it was just a hot streak to end the year or if Ernesto figured something out that unlocked a new talent level
  4. sveumrules
    Here's my best guess how they might divvy up weekly starts in that arrangement. Would need to give everyone a day a week at DH too... 1B - Adams (3) Wilken (3) 2B - Areinamo (3) EBJ (3) SS - Pratt (5) EBJ (1) 3B - Wilken (2) Adams (2) Areinamo (2) Ideally Wilken/Adams would get more time at 3B and EBJ would get more at SS, but not sure there's any way to really make it work unless they're only gonna play EBJ like two times a week on the dirt or start trying him on the OF grass a couple times a week.
  5. sveumrules
    Bryant was a signing out of Indy Ball last summer. Obviously was old for his leagues but had a nice couple months with a 1.82 ERA and 33 K over 24 IP split between Carolina/Wisco.
  6. sveumrules
    Most recent YouTube footage I could find is a couple two tree years old, but looked to have a pretty whippy arm action and interesting release angle... Also came across this "Catching Up With" video produced by Whitman Athletics that talks a little about the signing process and some of the mechanical things that helped him to cut down on the walks...
  7. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like an undrafted singing from last year. Nice strikeout numbers with 144 K over 116 IP at Whitman College in Walla Walla, Washington. Reigned in the control big time his junior year - 27 BB in 24 IP as a Freshman, 14 BB in 17 IP as a Sophmore, then down to 35 BB in 75 IP as a Junior. Had a dominant showing in the Alaskan Summer League too posting a 1.41 ERA over 32 IP with 37 K, 7 BB and only 16 hits allowed.
  8. sveumrules
    During the Bucks 8 W - 1 L run over the last nine games their 106.2 dRTG is 1st in the league. Offense (114.4 oRTG | 17th) and rebounding (50.3 REB% | 15th) have been more middle of the pack over that same time frame, but have to imagine getting Bobby back should give them a boost in both areas heading into the playoffs. Overall their +8.2 netRTG is 7th during the stretch with upcoming opponents CLE (+16.9 | 1st), GSW (+12.3 | 2nd), OKC (+8.7 | 4th), IND (+8.7 | 5th), and LAL (+6.8 | 9th) all playing at similar or better paces of late themselves.
  9. sveumrules
    Uribe, Ashby, Hall, Woodruff, Misio, Yoho, Henderson, Gasser. Those are eight talented pitchers that combined for about one win last year. I have a feeling they’ll combine for more than that this year. For decades at a time we didn’t have eight pitchers that good on the entire staff, now they are essentially high upside depth pieces. Wild times.
  10. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see how the Bucks handle the seven game mini gauntlet they have coming up with CLE, atIND, LAL, IND, OKC, atGSW, atLAL between March 9th and 20th.
  11. sveumrules
    Looks like DL Hall to the 60 Day is the corresponding move to open a 40 Man spot for Quintana,
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, Ernesto and Adamczewski are the only two that aren't on there that I'd try to make sure got on my Top 30, but other than Collins not sure who I'd take off either.
  13. sveumrules
    Three SP heading into FA after 2025, Freddy has an $8M team option for 2026.
  14. sveumrules
    Agree that Carlos Rodriguez hasn't done much lately to inspire a ton of confidence, but one thing to keep in mind is that he is still pretty young. Last year only him and Mick Abel threw 100 IP or more in AAA during their age 22 season or younger, and Carlos's ERA was almost full two runs lower even though Abel has gotten multiple Top 100 placements over the years.
  15. sveumrules
    He fell off pretty hard last year. 72 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 93 xFIP- in 2022. 85 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 102 xFIP- in 2023. 95 ERA- | 113 FIP- | 109 xFIP- in 2024. 2022 and 2023 were also aided by really good/lucky home run suppression (42 HR9+), but that caught up with him big time last year with a more appropriate 103 HR9+. At the same time his last six regular season starts were ridiculous last year with 36 IP of 19 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 87 xFIP- and he followed that up with 0 ER over 11 IP in his first two postseason starts before the Dodgers finally got to him in the NLCS so hopefully there are another 170 or so IP of 95 ERA- left in the tank, as that shook out to 3.0 rWAR for Jose last year.
  16. sveumrules
    Obligatory "Quintana? That creep can roll, man" Big Lebowski reference.
  17. sveumrules
    Nothing too special, but should hopefully eat innings, fit right in to the Brewers FIP beating ways and push Ashby to the bullpen... Quintana 2024 95 ERA- | 113 FIP- Brewers 2024 88 ERA- | 102 FIP-
  18. sveumrules
    I don't think anyone is blowing anything. Black is defensively limited (at least by the Brewers high and successful standards) and his bat fell off big time at AAA last year. 2022-23 (841 PAs) 283/413/483 (142 wRC+) 15.8 BB% | 17.1 K% 2024 (462 PAs) 258/374/429 (114 wRC+) 13.2 BB% | 18.8 K% Old friend Keston Hiura has a 135 wRC+ in AAA the last two years and all he has to show for it are 27 PAs in MLB with a 148/148/148 triple slash. I'd still like to see him in the Bauers role from last year if he is healthy enough, but if he does go back to AAA he's going to need a performance uptick to push the envelope on earning playing time.
  19. sveumrules
    I was thinking something like 240/310/420 would be a pretty good season for Dunn. Checked and his 80th percentile ZiPS is 235/320/392 (97 OPS+) so in the general ballpark. If he could put up something like that along with plus base running and defense (was +0.8 BsR and +3 DRS in his tiny sample last year), you’re essentially talking Ryan McMahon territory.
  20. sveumrules
    I do like Chourio in the leadoff spot over Turang if that is how they end up going. FanGraphs has league batting order splits going back to 2002 and it’s kind of interesting looking at how the league has approached that spot over the last twenty years. League Average Leadoff wRC+ 2002-07: 93, 93, 98, 99, 97, 99 (climbing towards average) 2008-15: 101, 101, 94, 100, 96, 100, 102, 101 (cromulence mostly achieved) 2016-20: 105, 99, 105, 104, 105 (starting to see some 105’s in there) 2021-24: 107, 103, 111, 108 (lil dip in 2022, but otherwise 105 has been left behind) It has gotten to the point where in each of the last two years the league average leadoff hitter (111 and 108 wRC+) has been better than the league average clean up hitter (108 and 106 wRC+).
  21. sveumrules
    .300 AVG / 1.000 OPS is like Top 5 Hitter in baseball land, agree that's likely overly optimistic. I'd be more than fine if he could stay healthy enough to put up 500 PAs of his career average production (.806 OPS) which would be something like a 4 WAR player.
  22. sveumrules
    Definitely feels like we are in somewhat of a transitional phase as it relates to teams winning multiple NBA Championships with no repeats in the last six years. Kawhi in 2019, LeBron in 2020, Bucks in 2021, Curry in 2022, Jokic in 2023 and Celtics last year, 50/50 split of the old guard getting one last ring (for now), and the new guys getting their first. If CLE or OKC can ride out their #1 seeds that would make it seven in a row with different winners after LeBron/GSW won seven straight from 2012-18. I just want one Giannis Bucks vs Jokic Nuggets Finals before time runs out. Can't imagine too many other "Best Players in the World" went seven seasons without ever meeting in the Finals. Maybe Kareem / Dr. J in the 1970's because of the ABA split?
  23. sveumrules
    When the Bucks had their extended run of good play in the first half (24 W - 10 L from 11/12 through 01/27) their 109.4 dRTG was 5th in the league for that stretch. Obviously a lot smaller sample, but during this 5 W - 1 L run they are currently on their 104.3 dRTG is 2nd in the league. Still think second round in the realistic ceiling, but their chances of pulling off an upset or two are definitely better in my eyes now than they were before the deadline, assuming health from Giannis/Dame of course.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, EMJ was always tooled up but also in that nexus of old for his level, first base only (smattering of games in CF notwithstanding), good not great production at A/A+. His first taste of AA in 2023 came in at 245/355/349 (97 wRC+) with a 13.6 BB% | 17.6 K% over 125 PAs. Through June of 2024 he had nudged things up to 236/305/397 (108 wRC+) with a 6.6 BB% and 19.1 K% over 256 PAs to start the year. Things really took off around July when he cranked it up to 349/443/558 (195 wRC+) over his final 201 PAs with an 11.4 BB% and 13.9 K%. I wouldn’t expect anyone to maintain a 195 wRC+, but if EMJ continues his leveled up production in Nashville he could make things real interesting in the 1B mix.
  25. sveumrules
    Some Logan Henderson fun facts. There are 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP in the minor leagues the last two years. Here are some of his ranks among that group... 34.0 K% (1st) | 27.3 K-BB% (1st) | 0.94 WHIP (2nd) | 3.08 xFIP (5th) | 5.12 K/BB (8th) | .191 AVG (9th) | 78.0 LOB% (18th) | 3.04 ERA (23rd) | 6.6 BB% (46th) | 3.53 FIP (54th)
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