sveumrules

Adames batted 6th zero times last year. He had 13 PAs batting 2nd, 86 PAs batting 3rd, 441 PAs batting 4th, and 148 PAs batting 5th. His 16.74 RBI% was 4th on the team behind Contreras (17.88%), Chourio (17.79%) and Yelich (17.03%). There was a significant drop off from there to returning guys like Hoskins (15.47%), Ortiz (15.41%), Turang (14.45%), Perkins (12.89%), Frelick (10.34%), and Mitchell (9.15%). Adding another middle of the order bat capable of driving in runs will go a long way if the Brewers want to maintain or build on their 6th place finish in runs scored last season.

So the Brewers don't actually have the conditional picks I wasn't aware of them having, and in order to get them they will need both of Civale and Hoskins to decline a QO of around $22M? I'd say the odds of that happening are around the same as the odds of the Brewers giving guys like Colin Rea or Adrian Houser multiyear extensions.

Garcia was on a whole different level peripherally from Peguero last year. Ranks are among 160 relievers with at least 50 IP in 2024.., Peguero 92 K%+ (125th) | 146 BB%+ (141st) 99 FIP- (108th) | 4.12 SIERA (134th) Garcia 133 K%+ (27th) | 78 BB%+ (35th) 59 FIP- (10th) | 2.71 SIERA (19th) Lowe is gonna cost something like $25M for his last two years of control, unless TEX installs Garcia as closer (which they might with those periphs and all the red on his StatCast page) he likely won’t make that much for his five years of remaining control.

Goldy just signed with NYY, so cross him off. Profar is looking for something like 3/50 which I’d guess the Brewers believe is a little rich for a poor defensive LF with one outlier hitting season on the back of his baseball card.

From 1987-92 Paul Molitor hit 319/390/476 (139 wRC+). Only Witt, Vlad and Judge topped a .319 average this past season among qualified hitters. A 139 wRC+ was a Top 15 qualified hitter last year. I’ll take the under.

Would all depend on the medicals and how much of a discount the Blue Jays are willing to accept after a lost season from Bichette in 2024. 073123: Patellar Tendonitis 082723: Strained Quad 061424: Strained Calf 071924: Strained Calf 091724: Fractured Finger Obviously the finger was a fluke thing, but that's a lot of lower body stuff the last couple years.

Giannis isn't trading Khris.

Brewers were tied for the 7th most HR allowed last year (195) but only gave up the 4th fewest runs (641). While they struggled preventing the long ball they allowed the fewest doubles in MLB (203), the 4th lowest BABIP (.277), and stranded runners at an MLB best 76.7% clip. Clicking around BRef it looks like 312 of the 641 runs (48.7%) the Brewers surrendered last year were the result of a home run compared to an MLB average of 44.2% of runs being scored via home run.

Baseball Musings RBI percentage page has 255 players that came to bat with at least 200 runners on base this year. Bauers 13.78 RBI% ranked 139th so he wasn't really cashing in base runners at any extraordinary rate.

Ratings for TV sports (and TV in general) are down across the board over the timeframe cited in the article. NBA set attendance and revenue records again last season even if fewer and fewer people are paying for cable nowadays.

158 career MLB innings with a 5.57 ERA and 5.68 FIP but a 4.37 xFIP which means the model thinks his home run rate has been flukily high. Nothing too special at AAA this past year with 76 IP of 4.34 ERA and 4.10 FIP. His last time in MLB (13 innings in 2023) he put up a non-descript 4.73 ERA and 4.53 FIP, but his 3.61 xERA and 3.34 xFIP again implied he was possibly the victim of some bad luck in there. Steamer really likes him with a 3.76 ERA projection for 2025, looks like the Brewers computers and scouts were similarly intrigued.

The only thing Attanasio would sell for $2 at the stadium is a cup of his neighbors sand.

If you scroll down past the Last 30 Games split it lists only 18 career games.

Yeah, just plug him into the Bauers role and give him 350-400 PAs against MLB pitching. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up with a batting line something like Joey Ortiz last year - 240/330/400 or so. That was good for a 104 wRC+ last year. With his overly patient approach I think leaving him in AAA any longer would be a detriment. If he struggles either of Mike Boeve or Ernesto Martinez Jr. should be just a plane ride away.

Black only played 18 games at the MLB level. He homered in each of his last two games in AAA on September 21st/22nd to close the season.

OKC are a best in the West 20 W - 5 L. Their +12.1 netRtg is tops in the Association. They were on a five game win streak and had won nine of their last ten. No matter, your 2024 Emirates Cup Champions are the old washed up Doc Rivers coached Milwaukee Bucks.

Interesting ideas @wallus Castro had an 85 wRC+ over his first 1,082 PAs with DET but has kicked it into a new gear with a 108 wRC+ over his last 1,044 PAs since joining MIN. Steamer isn’t really buying it though with a 99 wRC+ projection for next year and looking at his StatCast page I can kinda see why. Has played 4.000 combined innings at OF/SS/2B with bad DRS (-36) and middling FRV (+1). Only has 458 innings at 3B with +1 DRS | +2 FRV. Is a switch hitter, but has pretty pronounced splits with an 87 wRC+ vs LHP | 116 wRC+ vs RHP since finding his stroke with the Twins. Could maybe be something there if the Brewers think he’s a viable 3B defender and buy into his new hitting results more than the publicly available projections do. Schmitt has posted nice small sample marks at 3B with +3 DRS | +2 FRV in 295 innings, but the metrics haven’t been a fan of his work at SS/2B with -7 DRS | -6 FRV in 432 combined innings. Hasn’t really hit at all in AAA (95 wRC+ over 568 PAs) or MLB (73 wRC+ over 390 PAs with just a 4.4 BB%) though. Steamer (89 wRC+) and ZiPS (93 OPS+) think better days are ahead, but barring some kind of breakthrough or swing change his offensive game seems pretty limited. Pass. Luzardo would all depend on the medicals. If the Brewers staff think he’s got another 279 IP of 80 ERA- | 80 FIP- in him like he racked up from 2022-23, I’d trust their judgement. Would guess the Marlins will want players with zero service time coming back though since they aren’t realistically lined up to compete soon,

If he was expected to start every day in the majors I'd agree, but right now it looks like he's more slotted to fight it out and earn playing time as part of a timeshare so that has to knock him down a little. Believe MLB dropped him in at #15 on their Brewers Top 30 for whatever that is or isn't worth. Longenhangen gave him a 40 FV at FanGraphs. Their Brewers list will be getting updated this offseason, but that is in the same tier that starts with Bitonti at #14, CarRod at #15, Pena at #18, Meccage at #19 in the last update.

I'd probably slot him in at #19 between two other diminutive Brewers prospects. Big believer in Luis Pena's upside at #18 even though he is on the opposite end of the proximity scale so can't put Caleb ahead of him. Love Luis Lara's defense in CF and he has plenty of time to figure out the rest, but Durbin is just on a whole different level as a hitter and on the cusp of MLB.

Welcome to the board!

Having a minor league fielding percentage 32 points better than thee literal worst 3B defender of the defensive metrics era is a point in his favor?

Based on what? The Brewers played Black at 1B for 76 games, DH for 21 games, OF for 12 games and 3B for 9 games (with three errors and a .876 fielding percentage) last year. That distribution would seem to imply the Brewers don’t believe Black is defensively capable of handling the strong side of a 3B platoon at the MLB level. If they had intentions of playing him at 3B on any kind of regular basis in MLB he would have gotten more reps there. All indications, from his scouting reports, to his fielding percentages, to how the Brewers have chosen to deploy him most recently indicate he is pretty horrible at 3B (especially for a team built on a foundation of run prevention).

Yeah, it seems like every postseason they flash up the onscreen graphic showing how the team that hits more HR in any given game has some obscene win percentage. Couldn’t find anything more recent, but this deep dive into the topic by Mike Petriello from 2020 does a pretty thorough job looking into it.

Lowe definitely falls flush in the Venn Diagram overlap of proven hitter, the Brewers can afford him, likely available, and on a team we have trade history with. Think he would need to play like 40 games each at 2B / 1B / DH to make it work defensively.

Interesting signing. Has been pretty durable averaging 150+ IP over his 12 year career. Definitely a control artist averaging just over one walk per nine innings the last three years, but only like 6.3 strikeouts per nine in Japan. For comparison here are some other recent NPB guys (with their K9) before coming over…Sasaki (11.4), Yamamoto (9.3), Imanaga (9.2), Senga (10.3), Ohtani (10.4), Darvish (8.9). Sugano has also been pretty homer prone in NPB with an HR9 over one in 4 of the 5 seasons from 2019-23 before putting up good homer suppression in 2024. Will be curious to see how that plays in the AL East.