CheeseheadInQC

I’ve only listened to the last chunk (because I am who I am, I started with the DSL/ACL sections), but so much good stuff there. Glad to hear the Tyler Rodriguez optimism. Question for the next episode: With the exception of Yophery Rodriguez, none of Carolina outfielders get much prospect love. Who do you think is most likely to break out in Wisconsin next season?

Here are the starting hitters for the squads as I see it, with the DH just being the next best prospect on the roster. Not even going to attempt pitchers because too much depends on health. Also, until the Brewers add someone else, I've got Dunn on the MLB roster. AAA C: Jeferson Quero IF: Ernesto Martinez, Ray Delgado, Freddy Zamora, Mike Boeve OF: Brewer Hicklen, Tyler Black, Isaac Collins DH: Wes Clarke AA C: Damien Miller IF: Luke Adams, Jadher Areinamo, Eric Brown, Brock Wilken OF: Bladimir Restituyo, Luis Lara, Dylan O'Rae DH: Eduardo Garcia A+ C: Matthew Wood IF: Blake Burke, Daniel Guilarte, Cooper Pratt, Juan Baez OF: Yophery Rodriguez, Yhoswar Garcia, Hedbert Perez DH: Luis Castillo A C: Marco Dinges IF: Eric Bitonti, Josh Adamczewski, Jesus Made, Luis Pena OF: Braylon Payne, Kay-Lan Nicasia, Reese Walling DH: Filippo Di Turi Thoughts: 1. Lara and Pratt were coin flips. This placement is the easiest for roster building, but each is a good enough prospect where I doubt that will factor into the Brewers' decision. 2. I am guessing that they put Dinges in an easier offensive environment in low-A while he focuses his effort on developing as a catcher 3. It feels like you could make a case that half of the full season outfielders in the system belong in high-A. 4. I was conservative with Jose Anderson, but it wouldn't shock me if he started in Carolina. 5. Even if Dunn drops down to AAA, I have to think another AAA shortstop signing is coming with Capra, I'm pretty sure, being out of options. 6. On the pitching side, very interested in both A/ACL and starter/reliever for Wande Torres. I hope Gardner gets a AAA spot. He was overshadowed by Yoho-mania, but the guy was one of the most dominant relievers in AA when healthy, finishing fourth in K% and first in FIP among pitchers with at least 30 IP. One of the guys who beat him on K%? Well, he is available in the Rule 5 draft again.

What Patrick did was truly impressive in that league (remember when the International League was more of a pitcher’s league?). I was only mildly surprised because it didn’t seem like the Brewers were treating him like a prospect. If the stuff ticked up late in the season, though, that helps explain things. I was so used to solid starts by him in a league in which they were rare that I probably would have overlooked granular changes later on. I thought if they were going to take two, Smith would be the one getting the other spot. Both, though, had absurdly good years.

Since they got him for Toro, if Patrick does make positive contributions for the Brewers, would that make him the brightest spot for either team in that Wong-Winker deal?

Mildly surprised by Patrick just because they didn’t call him up last year.

I don’t see the issue. 1. He is rumored to be on the block and was playing poorly enough in the second half that he was benched for a playoff game. 2. They are a large market win now team, so chances are they aren’t dealing him for prospects. 3. How many better win now pieces do you think are going to be available for him, especially in a two-team deal?

Between Eldred's dominance and Bosio's win streak, that second half of 1992 sure was fun. He was probably the first prospect I was aware of before he hit the big leagues, and while his career didn't quite match his lofty beginnings, that rookie campaign was something special.

Clayton Kershaw

I wouldn't be surprised if we see another one or two outfielders signed. Right now the other outfield options at triple-A and double-A include: two guys who could theoretically be competing for one 40-man spot depending upon how the offseason goes, a top prospect who MIGHT be shifted to the outfield (and also could end up in the big leagues), a second baseman, a shortstop, a guy plucked out of the independent leagues midseason last year and an intriguing prospect who, given his youth, might be better served by starting out again in Wisconsin. Each of these guys individually have things to like, but it definitely feels like some more depth could help in roster construction.

While there were definite bright spots, the ACL season also produced a fair amount of struggles for the youngest team in the league. Is there anyone who you are still optimistic on despite mediocre or poor numbers there last year?

The one thing that most of those minor league pitchers have in common is that they are right-handed. I'd be interested to know who people think the top healthy lefty starting pitching prospect in the organization is (so, not Gasser) and how many righties do you have ranked ahead of him? Is it Tate Kuehner? Given Fitzpatrick spent most of the year in the bullpen and Manfredi was moved there after having some struggles starting, your other options seem to be two draft picks from last season (Broughton and Molina) and a guy who has yet to pitch stateside (Torres).

I’ll always have a soft spot for Brian Shouse for two reasons. First, we share an alma mater. Second, our maid of honor’s mother happened to teach one of his kids, and he managed to secure a bunch of promotional giveaway items for her to give us (well, me) as a wedding gift.

Along with the two obvious answers, the team that execs polled by Fangraphs thought had the most uncommitted 2025 bonus money: Cleveland.

It will be interesting to see how many repeaters there are. If all of the remaining players who had an wRC+ of 100+ in the ACL get promoted (Rodriguez, Ordonez, Barrios), That would leave nine hitters on the roster not counting Fielder. You could see one or two more elevated to fill out roster needs at Carolina (I'd imagine Alastre's contact skills give him an edge over the other guys who played last year, although, if healthy, Demetrio Nadal could be another option). Of the remaining non-catchers, only Ramon Moreno will be entering his age 20 season, with Pedro Ibarguen at 18 and Luis Lameda, Antony Gomez and Gery Holguin at 19.

So, Quintana is Cooper Pratt? (Sort of kidding) Thanks. I was hoping someone had seen something on Ortuno's defense. It is tough to tell sometimes where the DSL players who surprise at the plate will end up in the field because so often, especially early on, they just slot in wherever there are at bats to be had (I imagine you see more 5-8 or 5-9 first basemen in the DSL than in any other level). Tyler Rodriguez was the same way last year.

Quero is coming off surgery on his throwing arm, with Pratt there are power questions, Made and Pena have only played in the DSL. There is no Jackson Chourio, this is the guy, type prospect. Hopefully by this time next season, Quero will have shown no ill effects, Misiorowski will have improved his command enough to stick in the rotation, Pratt will look like a 25-homer type guy, and Made and Pena will have successfully burst onto the A-ball scene. For now, though, it is which question mark are you most willing to look past for the upside.

The headline for any story about the Brewers 2024 Dominican Summer League season has to include Jesus Made and Luis Pena. Their seasons were that absurd and they are consistently regarded among the top prospects coming out of the DSL this year. Dig a little deeper, though, and there is another story, one that will create some tough decisions for Milwaukee heading into the 2025 minor league season. Simply put, the Brewers’ Dominican Summer League squads had offensive depth that, in its productivity and youth, was unprecedented in team history and almost unrivaled across the DSL landscape. How much of an outlier were the Brewers? Among players in their age 16 or 17 seasons, there were 127 players across the DSL who, in at least 50 plate appearances, had an OPS of at least .700 and a strikeout rate of 25% or less. That averages out to about 4.25 players per organization. The Brewers had 15. The only other team to crack double digits was the Red Sox with 11. The rest of the NL Central tallied 16 combined. So why did I use the 25% K rate and .700 OPS cutoffs? Simply put, the majority of players who hit those benchmarks for the Brewers end up stateside the following season. In the three post-pandemic years, you’d usually see two players from this group, regardless of age, not brought over. And half of those were catchers, who presumably the Brewers wanted to work a bit more on the catching portion of their game. The problem is, they had 9, 7 and 11 players meet the criteria in those seasons. This year they have 16 (the 15 17-year-olds and Kevin Ereu). Plus, they have several players who in a normal year would probably have a 50/50 shot of getting brought over despite not meeting the criteria. An aside: How far has the Brewers’ international development system come? The only year, pre-pandemic, that topped 2022’s seven was 2015 with eight. Half of those players were 20 or older. So, with that out of the way, who might we see stateside? Possibly Carolina-bound Jesus Made & Luis Pena I’m going to group these two and not spend much time on them because, to be honest, there has been plenty written both on this site and elsewhere about these two that provides deeper analysis than I’d be able conjure up (if you haven’t been reading Spencer Michaelis’ write-ups on the top 20 finishers in the most recent prospects poll, they are exceptional). Given how quickly Chourio, Mendez, Lara and Rodriguez have reached Carolina recently, I’d put 80% odds on at least one of them skipping the ACL and 60% odds on both of them. And that might be a tad on the conservative side. The Locks Jose Anderson I debated putting Anderson in the first category, but felt three players skipping the ACL seemed a bit much. That being said, though, with 2022 DSL star Pedro Ibarguen, Ramon Moreno and Antony Gomez all looking like they could benefit by repeating the ACL, there will likely be outfield playing time to be had in Carolina. Anderson led the Brewers’ DSL contingent in home runs and ISO, tallied 9 outfield assists and topped a .900 OPS while also having a sustainable BABIP. He wasn’t among the sizable group of Brewers DSLers who walked at least as much as they struck out, but his K rate of 18 and change is below league average and not terribly problematic. Juan Ortuno Ortuno had an amazing season, better by many measures than Anderson. That being said, though, there are several reasons I would place him fourth in the pecking order here. First, the Brewers didn’t really treat him like a highly regarded prospect until he forced their hand. Second, it is doubtful he sustains a nearly .400 BABIP, especially given that his batted ball profile didn’t seem to obviously justify it. Third, where does he fit defensively? Is he a second or third baseman who played a lot of left field and first base in deference to Made, Pena and Juan Martinez? Or is he a man without a true position (or a future left-fielder only, given that 5-8 doesn’t scream first base)? That being said, he joined Made and one surprise name we’ll discuss later on in the 15/10/.100 group (15% K rate or better, 10% walk rate or better and .100 ISO or better). His stats nearly reached the rarified air occupied by Pena and Made. Any Other Year They Would Be A Lock Jorge Quintana Fangraphs has Jorge Quintana’s wRC+ 13th of the 28 Brewers DSL hitters to tally at least 50 plate appearances. It looks worse if you limit it to those with 100 plate appearances. Most of his rate stats range from slightly above average to slightly below average. All-in-all, the hitting profile of a player who would probably be on the bubble to be brought over. That, however, ignores three things. First, Quintana is a shortstop. Second, he saved his best for last, tearing it up in August after a rough July. Third, he was the highest profile signing in the Brewers’ 2024 international class. Sometimes a strong finish to a DSL season is a harbinger of bigger things stateside the following year (Jackson Chourio). Sometimes it isn’t (Pedro Ibarguen). It was enough, however, to show that he belonged stateside. That is especially true given point three. The Brewers have tended to bring their highest profile international signings over after one season unless they really struggled like Kevin Ereu did last year. That was not Quintana, so he will likely be the starting shortstop for the ACL crew if Made and Pena indeed end up in Carolina. Frandy Lafond On the OPS chart for Brewers’ DSLers since the pandemic, Frandy Lafond is nestled comfortably between Yophery Rodriguez and Jackson Chourio. That is not to say that he is that kind of prospect, but despite his start to the year being delayed he had a very strong season that will likely be rewarded with a trip stateside in 2025. Lafond’s 21.1% K rate is among the highest in the group, although like Quintana he was still a touch below league average. Lafond, whose batted ball profile was pull-centric and fly ball-oriented, had the fifth best ISO among Brewers DSLers, trailing only Anderson, Made, Pena and all-or-nothing catcher Kevin Garcia. Likely Exception to the Catchers Wait Rule Luis Corobo How impactful was Luis Corobo’s arm last season? The catcher flirted with throwing out half of attempted base stealers before settling firmly above 40%. In this regard, at least, the Jeferson Quero comparisons proved prescient. That is also why, despite the team often being slower to promote DSL catchers than other positions, I expect Corobo to be the ACL club’s primary catcher next season. The bat, well, some of the peripherals are better than the overall numbers. His walk rate of 9.4% was a tad lower than most, but he kept his K rate below 15% and showed some pop as well, fitting in comfortably with the likes of Lafond and Engel Paulino behind the big two and Anderson in ISO. A .256 BABIP kept the overall numbers from being all that eye-catching, but he definitely wasn’t overwhelmed at the plate. Will Money Talk? Kevin Ereu Kevin Ereu entered the 2023 DSL season with a sizable bonus and the hype that goes along with it. Suffice it to say, things did not go as planned. He did, however, make significant strides this past season, though. He shaved about nine percentage points off his strikeout rate and walked more than he struck out. He also, however, displayed little in the way of extra base power. It’s a combination that under normal circumstances in a year with this many contenders would land Ereu squarely on the bubble. As it is, however, I’m guessing he makes his way to the ACL. Handelfry Encarnacion From the sporadic sources I was able to find, It appears that Encarnacion was the fifth biggest bonus from the 2024 signing class. While that doesn’t make him a lock (a 37.6% K rate likely will be keeping the fourth largest bonus, Joandrew Pena, in the DSL another season), it does affect things. Presuming they still hold true, the reasons why they gave him On the plus side for Encarnacion: 1. He walked more than he struck out, falling a few Ks short of the 15/10/.1 club. 2. When he was healthy, the Brewers treated him like a legit prospect, giving him significant playing time and a spot early in the batting order. The issue, as it is with many of these players, is a numbers game. There could easily be three outfielders repeating from last year, plus Anderson and Lafond possibly in front of him. Then there are a number of guys who played some outfield last season (Ortuno, Roderick Flores) and another outfielder in Engel Paulino who is also on the bubble. Assuming the numbers can be trusted at that level, his BABIP was also depressed by a weird batted ball profile that produced a lot of ground balls and fly balls with few line drives. The Bubble These next several are in order of how likely I see them being in Arizona next spring. Moises Polanco The closest of those not in the 15/10/.1 club to inclusion, Polanco missed by .01 in ISO. Still, however, he walked more than he struck out and had 12 extra base hits, even if none left the yard. He also had the ninth most at bats of any Brewers DSLer and spent most of his playing time at second base or shortstop. His profile came very close to the “any other year he’d be a lock” category. Roderick Flores Flores had great what I call organizational signals in 2023. He had the third most at-bats among Brewers DSLers, trailing only Yophery Rodriguez and Filippo Di Turi. He also split time between shortstop and second base while sharing an infield with Di Turi. Unfortunately, he also had a 29.2% K rate and a .643 OPS, so he spent a second season in the DSL. Flores dropped his strikeout rate to 22.2%, matching his high walk rate. He also displayed a bit more extra base pop, including hitting his first home run while tallying a .790 OPS. The questions moving forward are 1. Can he keep the K rate reasonable? and 2. Can he develop enough power to make the extreme pull fly ball profile work to his advantage? Juan Martinez Juan Martinez, who spent much of the season hitting after Pena and Made in the DSL1 lineup, Has some really interesting peripherals but mediocre results. He only struck out 11.8% of the time, walked nearly as often and like Polanco was a double or two away from reaching the 15/10/.1 club. There is reason to think he is better than his .700 OPS from last season. To do so, however, he is probably going to need to reduce the number of pop-ups and raise the number of line drives to get his batting average up. Martinez also showed some base running acumen, tallying better than a 90% stolen base success rate. Engel Paulino Pena, Made, Anderson and Quintana were 1-4 among Brewers DSLers in extra base hits. Fifth place, however, belonged to Engel Paulino, with eight doubles, six triples and a home run. He also spent most of his time playing center field. So why the question mark? Of the 16, Paulino came the closest to missing the list because of strikeouts at 23.5%. It could come down to how many outfielders they take. Jonathan Rangel In some ways, Jonathan Rangel feels very similar to Juan Martinez. Both had walk rates just a tick behind reasonable strikeout rates. Both had an OPS of about .700, albeit with Martinez garnering a lot more at bats. Rangel’s only real advantage, however, comes in his BABIP, which helped make up for the fact that he had the lowest ISO of any full-time hitter on the Brewers’ DSL squads. He also played 2nd/3rd rather than 2nd/SS like Martinez. If it comes down to one last infield spot between the two, it feels like Martinez probably gets it. The Other Catcher Yoneiker Lugo Of the 16 players who met the criteria, no one had a better walk to strikeout ratio than Yoneiker Lugo, in part because only Luis Pena had a lower K rate among Brewers DSLers. Lugo finished his solid first DSL season with a .779 OPS. He only had four extra base hits, but one was a homer. So why is he on the bubble? Edgardo Ordonez and Eric Martinez each waited an additional season after first posting good offensive numbers, presumably to improve with the glove behind the plate or the other non-hitting elements of being a catcher. Base stealers were an issue for Lugo in 2024, catching fewer than 20%. If the Brewers only bring over one catcher, I’d wager it was Corobo. If they bring two, Lugo could still have some competition (more on that in a bit). The Wild Card Jhoanjel Saez Remember when I said this list included three members of the 15/10/.1 club on this list? Saez is the third. So why is he so far down? He did it in exactly 50 plate appearances. It’s not that the Brewers didn’t necessarily see fit to play him much. He got about the same amount of August playing time as Engel Paulino and Juan Martinez. It’s just that he didn’t exit the IL until late July. While his solid play is heartening, with as few at-bats as he received, it is difficult to project him over any of the above players. That being said, he is a name to watch if the Brewers end up liking what they either saw in any work after the DSL season ended or see come spring. Possibilities Who Didn’t Meet the Criteria Considering that 16 of the 28 players who tallied at least 50 plate appearances were on this list, there aren’t many options for this section. That drops even further when you consider two have been released and a third could be transitioning to pitching full time given that he started splitting time last season. Still, there are three who you can make a case for. Pedro Tovar The most productive hitter in this category last season, Tovar’s .776 OPS ranked him just behind Lugo and Polanco. Despite that production, however, there are some issues working against Tovar. Given the absurd BABIP he posted and improved ISO he posted, either his quality of contact, his luck or, more likely, both, got better since 2023. Unfortunately his strikeout rate did not. His 27.4% K rate was the reason he wasn’t mentioned in the main part of the list. Also working against him, the guys in front of him, not just from this list but in the ACL. Ramon Moreno, Antony Gomez and Tovar all had occasionally promising but flawed rookie seasons in 2023, but the lack of outfield depth in the ACL made it that two spots were open. The Brewers chose Moreno and Gomez. Was Tovar’s DSL season enough to leap frog either of them despite that pair’s struggles in the ACL? I’m skeptical. Frederi Montero Jorge Quintana had the most plate appearances of any Brewers DSLer last season. Jesus Made was tied for second. Tied with him was none other than Frederi Montero. It also wasn’t as if Montero was overwhelmed. He struck out less than 15% of the time and posted a solid walk rate. He even stole 12 bases in 14 attempts. For a 6-2 corner infielder, however, his stats lacked some, well, oomph. He didn’t homer and his slugging percentage barely topped .300. In a league in which BABIPs tend to run high, his was below .300. It might have something to do with the 56% ground ball rate he posted. Clearly the Brewers see something they like in Montero to give him that much playing time. Perhaps the key to unlocking it is getting the ball in the air more. Freider Rojas No hitter on the Brewers’ DSL squads posted a better walk to strikeout rate than Rojas’ 1.53, with the catcher walking in almost 30% of his plate appearances. There just wasn’t that much else to his offensive profile. He seemed solid defensively, however, committing fewer errors than Corobo or Lugo. And while his caught stealing percentage dropped from his strong work in 2023, it was still better than some of the non-Corobo options. Basically, his case comes down to two questions: First, is there a second catching spot open in the ACL? Second, do the Brewers want Lugo to spend more time behind the plate before coming stateside? If the answer to both is yes, Rojas seems to be the one most likely to get the call. So What Is Going To Happen? Remember when the Brewers had two ACL teams? That would be nice this year (Curse you, Manfred). As it is, my very early and somewhat uninformed guess would be that they find a way to bring 12-13 over, with Polanco, Flores and Martinez making the cut and the 13th spot going to Rojas if they need another catcher. Still, there is no guarantee that they will have room for 12, even if two of those start the season in A-ball. We will just have to wait and see. I will say this, though. I hope the 2025 signing class gives me reason to write an equally long blog post next offseason.

I would bet that is fairly common where maybe you have homegrown prospect depth at one position in AAA and a lot of veteran minor leaguers elsewhere. I recently went back and watched the famous Jeff Francouer prank video after hearing Murphy was the manager, and boy did that team have a lot of minor league veterans featured.

So, Di Turi? Bitonti might see more time at first base rather than third, but there are definitely enough plate appearances to go around with usually using the DH on an infielder, especially given that it wouldn't shock me if any remaining infielders beyond Made, Pena, Bitonti, Adamczewski and Di Turi see time in the outfield.

Just looked it up, 2022. So that means three years in a row

Yep, just one. Really nice honor, and the second straight year a Brewers prospect won one at a premium defensive position (Quero).

If they didn’t play him at short in the ACL while Rodriguez and Alastre were struggling there, I doubt they view that as an option. It would be interesting to know what they view his alternative position as, though.

I am trying to imagine what my expectations would be for Made pre-Chourio and set them there. Unless I am missing someone, Yophery Rodriguez was arguably the third best performer from his signing class last season behind two guys who are probably their organizations’ top prospects, and yet his season still felt vaguely disappointing at times in a way I don’t think it would have a couple of years ago, and that really isn’t fair.

Easy mistake to make. As a minor leaguer who missed last year with an injury, he’s only almost famous. Sorry. I’ll, yah, see myself out.

This seems right. Maybe if Galindez had stayed healthy or Russell Smith had been more consistent they might have had a case, but as is, this is a solid grouping