CheeseheadInQC

I mean, almost certainly, but the Toronto-Cleveland trade seems to indicate the Blue Jays still think they are in the running.

A little late to the party, but I am absolutely thrilled to read all of the praise for both the individual players and the class as a whole. It is going to be tough to match last year's group, but continuing to stack top tier classes would be huge for the organization.

So after all that talk about pitching development and such, we get two teams which aren’t exactly known for it and one which is great at it right up to the point the pitchers inevitably blow out their arm. Color me shocked.

Maybe I am wrong because I couldn’t find a comprehensive list, but I think last year they only had four $500K or higher as well, with Joandrew Pena getting $500K. Handelfry Encarnacion was next on the list I could find at $400K.

The problem is, unless someone else is available in a trade at a reasonable price, the options are pretty much uniformly bad if they want a lefty complement to Hoskins. Your possibilities: 1. Free agents: You best hope is probably that Rizzo 1) Will accept a small contract and part-time role and 2) Isn't completely washed. 2. Black plays a palatable level of defense. 3. Martinez is able to make the jump from AA. Options 2 and 3 are still available to them. The free agent market for lefty first basemen is just bad. The other names are Joey Gallo, Matt Carpenter, Rowdy Tellez and Gavin Sheets. It's not unreasonable to look at that list and think, well, the devil you know ...

A while back, one of the posters made a simple statement in the forums: The Brewers must have the top group of teenage prospects in baseball. I thought, well, that sounds likely given the number and quality of teen prospects the Brewers have. It’s tough to know for sure, though, if you don’t look at all the other systems. So that is how I started this monstrosity. I’m breaking it up into three parts. The first, this one, will focus on the American League. The second will focus on the NL East and NL West. The final one will focus on the Brewers, the rest of the NL Central, and closing thoughts. First, though, some ground rules. Because I am writing this over a period of time, “teenager” will be anyone who hadn’t turned 20 by the time the clock struck midnight on New Year’s. I will not be including the upcoming IFA class in the later entries. Also, except where noted, the Fangraphs and MLB prospect rankings are the post-draft updates from last year. It’s not ideal, but they are two of the bigger not-behind-paywall rankings, so I stuck with them, although I mention the publicly available Baseball America team chats occasionally. Also, because I am writing this in bits and pieces, the level of detail will vary from team to team. My apologies to the Orioles. Also, I usually edit myself a bit at least, but I've got two more of these to go, so I'm just apologizing for any typos ahead of time (and given that a 6-year-old found it hilarious to occasionally just start shouting gibberish in my ear as I typed, there will be some typos). So on with the show. AL East Baltimore Orioles: Lots of Quantity at Least Ranked Prospects: Stiven Martinez OF (MLB 9, FG 40); Thomas Sosa OF (MLB 14); Braylin Tavera OF (MLB 15); Joshua Liranzo 3B (MLB 19); Leandro Arias SS (MLB 20, FG 14); Emilio Sanchez SS, (MLB 23, FG 15); Esteban Mejia, P (MLB 17); Keeler Morfe, P (MLB 26); Jordan Sanchez, OF (MLB 27, FG 21); Aron Estrada INF (MLB 28); DJ Layton, SS (MLB 29); Luis Almeyda, SS (MLB 30); Miguel Rodriguez, C (FG 24) Where to begin. Lots of intriguing young talent without that one premier prospect to lead it. Martinez, apparently has high upside and good stats, but also struck out 30% of the time in the DSL. A number of the guys also struggled and might fall on 2025 lists (Braylin Tavera, Emilio Sanchez, Luis Almeyda). Many, though, are genuinely intriguing, and the BA Orioles chat is peppered with mentions of Arias, Sosa, Estrada, Morfe, Mejia and Liranzo. Lots of guys who either excelled or held their own against older competition Others of note: Outside of pitcher Andres Parra’s strong Complex League performance and Jesus Palacios’ K rate there, there isn’t much not already listed stateside. The Orioles had a really good DSL season, but unlike the Brewers, a lot of the top hitters that haven’t been mentioned were repeating, with Elvin Garcia, Saul Gomez and Hector Campusano being the exceptions. They did have a really good DSL pitching group as well, with Reykelly Rubi, Kevin Velasco, Javier Gonzalez and Luis Espinoza putting together really good seasons. Their other overslot prep pick in 2024 (along with Layton) was outfielder Nate George. Overview: The Orioles have a lot of intriguing teens, but with Basallo now in his 20s, there really isn’t that top prospect to hang this profile around. I’ll take the Orioles’ depth over some of the one- or two-and-done groups, but it is tough to rank them toward the top without a player that really even fits into their own top 10. Boston Red Sox: Strong Recent DSL Classes Ranked Prospects: Franklin Arias, SS (MLB 4, FG 31); Yoelin Cespedes, SS (MLB 5, FG 12); Nazzan Zanetello, SS (MLB 13, FG 35); Conrad Cason, P/SS (MLB 15); Juan Valera, P (MLB 20); Dalvinson Reyes, P (MLB 29); Antonio Anderson, 3B (FG 23); Starlyn Nunez, SS (FG 26); Andruw Musett, C (FG 37) Arias and Cespedes are both probably top-10 prospects in their system at this point coming off big Complex League seasons to follow big DSL debuts (Arias also held his own in A ball). Arias has found his way into the bottom of the top 100 on a number of lists including Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. Zanetello is a big money signing from the 2023 draft who has really struggled since turning pro. Cason is a $1 million-plus two-way player signing from the 2024 draft. Valera might be the best outside of the top two at least results wise, shutting teams down in both the Complex League and in A-ball. Reyes pitched 17 quality DSL innings. Anderson is a $1.5 million prep signing from the 2023 draft who really struggled in A ball. Nunez had a bit of a disappointing FCL season, while Musett was pretty good in the FCL before struggling in an A-ball call up. Others of Note: Catcher Gerardo Rodriguez, who was really good in the FCL and a late low-A callup, is probably the best of the other stateside teens. Pitchers Wuilliams Rodriguez and Adam Bates had solid Complex League seasons as well. On the mound, Jesus Travieso, Yodrian Beltre, Greider Colina, Jose Martinez, Jeison Payano, and Yermain Ruiz turned in solid seasons. While there might not have a Made or Pena in the bunch, The Red Sox’s 2024 IFA signing class turned in a lot of good debut seasons, including Justin Gonzalez (140 wRC+), Avinson Pinto, Edwin Brito, Anderson Fermin and Ilan Fernandez. Yhoiker Fajardo, who they acquired in a trade with the White Sox, was singled out by Baseball America as perhaps the only intriguing White Sox DSL player. Overview: Really good depth from the last couple of DSL groups, and a decent top couple, but the struggles of the 2023 draft preps on this list and only Cason really from the 2024 draft group makes the middle a bit weaker than it feels like it should be given some of the IFA success. Tampa Bay Rays: It’s the Rays, What Do You Expect? Ranked Prospects: Trevor Harrison, P (MLB 25, FG 50); Santiago Suarez, P (MLB 8, FG 14); Brailer Guerrero, OF (MLB 6, FG 4); Theo Gillen, OF (MLB 5, FG 6); Adrian Santana, SS (MLB 15, FG 21); JD Gonzalez, C (MLB 27, FG 58); Jose Urbina, P (MLB 29, FG 41); Angel Brachi, 2B (FG 39); Leonardo Pineda, OF (FG 40); Nathan Flewelling, C (FG 59) Baseball America’s chat inferred that Harrison, Suarez, Guerrero and Gillen were all getting top 100 consideration, making the top of this group pretty stellar. Suarez and Harrison both put together really good low-A seasons (with Suarez’s being a full year). Guerrero, who has battled shoulder problems in each of his first two seasons, had great Complex League stats and apparently high exit velocities but also moderately high K rates before being shut down by injury. Gillen will be familiar to those who follow the draft as the bat-first prep pick was considered a possible Brewers first rounder (he went one pick after Payne). After those four, Urbina might be the most promising, with the Rays having him skip the DSL last season and giving him four low-A starts this season. The results haven’t been disastrous, but they haven’t been particularly noteworthy either. Santana, the Rays’ 2023 competitive balance first rounder, scuffled in low-A and trade acquisition Gonzalez fared even worse. Pineda, the Rays’ top 2024 IFA signing, had a Jorge Quintana-like season – solid, but nothing that really stood out – while Brachi struggled in the DSL. Flewelling was a prep third rounder in 2024. Others of Note: 2023 Canadian prep pick Jeremy Pilon had success in the FCL and low-A with big K numbers but matched them with high walk totals. After a shrug-inducing FCL campaign in 2023, outfielder Angel Mateo had a league average low-A season as a 19-year-old. Roberto Medina had probably the best of the FCL seasons of the Rays’ teens with 10+ K/9 but also 6+ BB/9. Domingo Batista was the best of the Rays’ 2024 IFA group in the DSL with a 135 wRC+ but a concerning 25+% K rate. Alfonzo Martinez and Jose Tovar had solid second DSL seasons at the plate. Pitching-wise, Miguel Toscano was solid (3.15 ERA, 3.93 FIP) but didn’t miss many bats (6 K/9) in his second DSL season. Overview: The top four is going to be among the best in baseball, period. And having two teenage pitchers as highly thought of (and with the results to back it up) as Harrison and Suarez is rare. After that, though, the system feels lighter than I was expecting. It’s the Rays, so Urbina, Pineda and Pilon will probably all break out next season, but for now, this feels fairly top heavy (albeit with a really good top tier). Toronto Blue Jays: Big drop after Nimmala Ranked Prospects: Arjun Nimmala, SS (MLB 5, FG 11); Enmanuel Bonilla, OF (MLB 13, FG 12); Johnny King, P (MLB 15, FG 36); Carson Messina, P (30 MLB); Andres Arias, OF (FG 18); Sam Shaw, 2B (FG 35); Franklin Rojas, C (FG 36). Nimmala showed big time power to go with a 30+% K rate during his first full season. King (3rd round) & Messina (12th) were above-slot signings in the 2024 draft who got a lot of praise on the BA Blue Jays chat. Bonilla shined in the DSL in 2023 but struggled mightily in the Complex League in 2024 (35% K Rate, .556 OPS). Arias missed much of the DSL season with injury, but put together strong results in limited plate appearances. Shaw was a 2023 prep pick whose Complex League season was similar to the Brewers’ Luiyin Alastre (very few strikeouts but not a ton of production either). Rojas posted solid DSL results, walking more than he struck out. Others of Note: Stateside, the top performers were trade acquisition Gilberto Batista and fellow pitcher Luis Torres, who both performed reasonably well in low-A. Outfielder Jean Joseph has below average output but did make it to A-ball as a teen. Catcher Randy Soto was singled out as the most interesting player on the Blue Jays’ DSL squad by Baseball America, which otherwise was pretty down on Toronto’s DSL team. Soto was an on-base machine, reaching in nearly half his plate appearances thanks to a 22% walk rate and 14 HBP. Other solid performers included first-year players Juarlin Soto, Rafael Flores and Pascual Archila, all high OPS lower power seasons with OK but not exceptional K rates. Returning first baseman Aldo Gaxiola supplied most of the power. Rookie Angel Rivero and returnees Eduar Gonzalez and Sann Omosako had the best seasons on the mound. Overview: Nimmala’s got his warts (K Rate) but also has a high ceiling. Too much of this group’s potential, however, is riding on the 2024 draft arms to lift it out of the lower tier of teams. New York Yankees: Lombard and … well … Ranked Prospects: George Lombard, SS (Fangraphs 6, MLB 3); Brandon Mayea, OF (FG 8, MLB 14); Francisco Vilorio, OF (FG 15, MLB 15); Edgleen Perez, C (FG 12, MLB 16); Richard Matic, 3B (FG 25); Gabriel Terrero, 2B (29 FG); Jerson Alejandro, P (36 FG) Lombard scuffled a bit at High-A but is still a legitimately good prospect. Unfortunately for the Yankees, with one exception, most of the rest of these guys took a step back in 2024. Mayea was OK in the Complex League, but not the kind of performance expected from the Yankees’ big money 2023 IFA signing. Vilorio, their top 2024 IFA signing, had a pretty poor debut marked by a big strikeout rate. Matic didn’t do much in the DSL either. The undersized Terrero was good but saw his power wane in his move stateside and Alejandro racked up a lot of K’s but a ton of walks in repeating the DSL. The exception was Perez, a catcher noted for his defense who improved upon his DSL offensive showing offensively, walking more than he struck out in the Complex League. This is where the Brewers hope Corobo is after 2025. Others of note: Not much on the pitching side. I believe the only stateside teen was Omar Gonzalez, whose K rate plummeted without a similar drop in walk rate. On the DSL side, Franyer Herrera had a good year after tallying just over 20 innings total in his first two DSL seasons, and Alexander Almonte got a mention in the Yankees’ Baseball America Prospect chat. The Yankees’ top performing first-year DSL hitters were arguably catchers Queni Pineda (who also got a BA chat mention) and Carlos Villarroal, although the time spent at 1B and the caught stealing numbers make me skeptical the latter sticks at catcher. Luis Puello moved behind the plate in his second DSL season and flourished with the bat, and Luis Escudero probably shouldn’t have repeated in the DR and proved it. Overview: Lombard’s a good prospect and Perez is the type of guy I would really be touting if he were with the Brewers, but outside of those two there isn’t a ton. Didn’t help that they didn’t sign a single high schooler from the 2024 draft. Catching is the obvious strength at the lower levels. AL Central Chicago White Sox: A Few Big Swings At Least Rated Prospects: George Wolkow 1B/OF (MLB 9, FG 19); Caleb Bonemar, 3B (MLB 12, FG 24); Blake Larson, P (MLB 20, FG 28); Javier Mogollon, 2B (FG 27); Eduardo Herrera (FG 32) Wolkow and Mogollon look nothing alike, but the 6-7 1B/OF and the 5-8 middle infielder had similar seasons in 2024. When they hit the ball, it went a long way. It was just hitting it that was the issue. Wolkow posted a 148 wRC+ and a 38.8% strikeout rate in 15 Complex League games before getting promoted to low-A, where he posted a 126 wRC+ with a 40.6% K rate and 11 homers in 76 games. Ton of power potential, but man is that K rate concerning. Mogollon had a 134 wRC+ in the Complex League complete with 8 homers but also struck out over 38% of the time. Herrera, the White Sox’s top 2024 IFA signing, struggled in his first taste of pro ball in the DSL. Bonemar (2nd rounder, roughly $3 million bonus) and Larson (competitive balance B pick) were both 2024 draftees. Others of note: Luis Reyes merited a mention in the Baseball America chat, saying he’s up to 97 with the fastball in the ACL. He had a 5.74 ERA, but passable peripherals for an 18-year-old in an absurdly difficult pitching environment. Angel Bello and to some extent Jordany Chirinos kind of fit the same statistical profile, poor ERA passable peripherals in the ACL. Outfielder Abraham Nunez and corner infielder Adrian Gil didn’t excel in the ACL, but were league average and might have done enough to get them a full season look in 2025. As for the DSL, you know it is bad when the guy singled out in the Baseball America chat as the one guy who showed promise subsequently got dealt to the Red Sox. Jurdrick Profar’s 121 wRC+ in his first DSL season probably makes him the most promising member left from this group. Overview: The White Sox seem to have a very good system after recent trades. They just don’t have a particularly young one. High lower-level K rates scare me, so with all due respect to Bonemar and Larson, the White Sox are going to be near the bottom for me. Cleveland Guardians: Why Does That Name Seem Familiar? Jaison Chourio, OF (MLB 3, FG 4); Ralphy Velazquez, 1B (MLB 5, FG 6); Braylon Doughty, P, (MLB 7, FG 10); Welbyn Francisca, SS (MLB 9, FG 3); Joey Oakie, P (MLB 14, FG 13); Robert Arias, OF (MLB 17, FG 8); Chase Mobley, P (MLB 19, FG 21); Cameron Sullivan, P (MLB 24), Jacob Zibin, P (FG 22) Jackson’s younger brother Jaison has turned into quite the prospect in his own right. He won the Carolina League MVP like his older brother two years prior and is widely seen as a top 100 prospect after posting an .812 OPS in low A. Velazquez, the Guardians’ 2023 first rounder, turned in a strong first full season in Lynchburg as well with a .776 OPS before struggling in a late high-A call up. He also has been making top 100 lists. Francisca made Fangraphs’ top 100, following up a stellar DSL season with an equally strong performance in the ACL. He also performed really well late in the year in low-A. Doughty (CB1, $2.6M), Oakie (3, $2M), Mobley (10, $1.8M) and Sullivan (7, $525,000) are intriguing and in some cases big money prep arms for an organization that specializes in developing pitching. Arias had mediocre stats in the DSL but walked a lot more than he struck out and stole 29 bases. Others of note: The embarrassment of riches continues. Being a right-handed hitting first baseman might limit Luis Merejo’s prospect rankings but the guy posted a 123 wRC+ in the ACL in his age-18 season then upped it to a 145 wRC+ in low-A after a late season promotion. Lefty Melkis Hernandez struggled with walks after his promotion to low-A, but the 19-year-old was really good in the tough ACL pitching environment. At the Complex League level, middle infielder Jonathan Martinez posted an above average offensive stat line in his age 17 season. The DSL was very strong, with six first-year hitters posting above average offensive stats: Gabriel Rodriguez (163 wRC+), Juneiker Caceres (146), Yeiferth Castillo (112), Estivel Morillo (110), Johan Rodriguez (103), and Robert Arias (102). Returning catchers Pablo Arosemena, Reiner Herrera and Pedro Dalmagro also had very strong offensive seasons. Erigaldi Perez (poor K rate but great walk rate), Santiago Peraza and Renil Ramos (very good K rate, middling to poor walk rate) lead the pitching staff. Overview: The Brewers are often discussed as the NL version of the Rays, but perhaps the Guardians would be a more apt comparison for reasons beyond the Chourio brothers. Both teams’ systems have been bolstered by strong performances by some members of their recent IFA classes and neither has shied away from taking prep players early and often. Most notably both have bucked the trend of avoiding prep pitching, opting to accept the inherent risk associated with high school pitchers for the reward of getting the pitchers into their development systems at a younger age. You can debate which group of teenage prospects is better, but the roadmaps appear to be at least broadly similar. At minimum, this group is in the conversation for best in the American League. Detroit Tigers: What Do You Think of the 2024 Draft? Ranked Prospects: Bryce Rainer, SS (MLB 4, FG 5); Owen Hall, P (MLB 10, FG 10); Ethan Schiefelbein, P (MLB 12, FG 21); Franyerber Montilla (MLB 13); Enrique Jimenez, C (MLB 15, FG 24); Zach Swanson, P (MLB 24); Nestor Miranda (MLB 28, FG 36); Andrew Dunford (FG 35) Rainer (11th overall), Hall (2nd round), Schiefelbein (Comp B) and Swanson (9th) represent the four biggest bonuses given out by the Tigers in the 2024 draft. Rainer was the second prep selected. The others were a mixed bag. Montilla put together a really good FCL season after spending two seasons in the Dominican but managed just a .405 OPS in 20 low-A games. Still, he apparently barely missed the BA top 10. Jimenez’s stateside debut was solid in the FCL (108 wRC+), although the strikeouts did jump a bit. Miranda, a 6-3 corner infielder with massive raw power put together a wRC+ in the DSL that was more driven by walks than power. Between his 26.7% walk rate and his 33.7% K rate in 86 at bats, he put the ball in play in fewer than 40% of his plate appearances. Dunford, a 2023 draft pick, pitched just ⅓ of an inning in the FCL in an injury-marred season. Others of Note: Not a lot else stateside. Blake Dickerson, acquired for international bonus pool money, had a solid ERA but mediocre peripherals in the FCL. Infielder Juan Hernandez was a regular in the FCL lineup and, at least, struck out less than some of the other teens on the team even if his 92 wRC+ wasn’t stellar. They fared better in the DSL, with five first-year teen hitters ranging from 145 to 110 in wRC+: Ronald Ramirez, Jesus Pinto, Jose Dickson, Luis Aguilar and Steven Madero. Four other returning teens also hit that mark. Franyerson Reyes, Kelvis Salcedo and Deibi Rodriguez led the DSL pitching staff. Overview: I like the DSL depth, and the draft picks give this group a high ceiling. Overall, though, this feels more like a middle tier group than a top tier one. Kansas City Royals: Just Not Much Here Ranked Prospects: David Shields, P (MLB 7, FG 19); Yandel Ricardo, SS (MLB 8, FG 11); Ramon Ramirez, C (MLB 10, FG 18); Jhonayker Ugarte (MLB 18, FG 21); Asbel Gonzalez (MLB 20) Perhaps the best thing about this group is that it feels like none of them took a significant step back last year. Ricardo’s poor BABIP made what otherwise seemed like it should have been an above average DSL season into a below average one, but it wasn’t like he was overwhelmed. Ramirez wasn’t as dominant offensively stateside as he was in the DSL, but he was still above average in the Complex League. A falling caught stealing rate bears watching. Nothing in Ugarte’s DSL stats particularly stood out, but it added up to a 130 wRC+. Gonzalez was above average in the ACL in his first stateside season. Shields was a $2.3 million prep signing as KC’s second round pick. Other Prospects of Note: Pitcher Kyle DeGroat and outfielder Corey Cousin were both above slot (about $350,000 each) day 3 prep signings. Beyond that it is sparse. Neither Jorge Hernandez nor Roni Cabrera hit terribly well in the ACL, but at least they spent their whole age 18 season there. 1B Jose Cerise had a 119 wRC+ with a lot of contact in his debut DSL season, but that debut came as a 19 year old and he almost never walked.The other above average DSL teen, Daniel Jose Lopez, actually took a step backward from last season. Perhaps the most promising unranked DSL prospect statistically was staff ace Marwys Cabrera, but even his 4.81 walks per nine were a bit high. Overview: Shields is a really interesting draft pick, but overall this group is really thin. Minnesota Twins: Home to the Top Rated Teen Prospect in Baseball Ranked Prospects: Walker Jenkins, OF (MLB 1, FG 1); Charlee Soto, P (MLB 8, FG 14); Dasan Hill, P (MLB 10, FG 7); Eduardo Beltre, OF (MLB 24, FG 31); Dameury Pena, 2B (MLB 25, FG 6); Adrian Bohorquez, P (MLB 29, FG 16); Daiber De Los Santos, SS (FG 11); Yoel Roque, P (FG 18); Hendry Chivilli, SS (FG 22); Byron Chourio, OF (FG 23); Ariel Castro, OF (FG 40) If there is an AL team that can compete with Cleveland as far as depth and top-level teenage talent in the minors, it might be their division rival Minnesota. Jenkins is often listed as a top-5 prospect in all of baseball. Soto, despite a mediocre ERA, turned in a strong A ball season with peripherals similar to the guy picked one pick before him, Josh Knoth. 2024 second-rounder Hill, a $2 million signee, was a guy Fangraphs loved at draft time. Adrian Bohorquez also posted strong numbers at low-A (and in the Complex League) on the mound with 4.58 BB/9 being balanced out by a 10.53 K rate for a 3.23 ERA between the two levels. The Twins’ Chourio didn’t fare as well at low-A as the pitchers, tallying just a .548 OPS. Among the Complex Leaguers, Pena, according to the Baseball America chat, has no real defensive home but just keeps hitting, following up his 6.5% K rate in the DSL with a 6.4% rate last season. On the other side of the spectrum are Civilli and Castro, whose 2023 struggles with strikeouts in the DSL continued in the ACL as he again failed to break the 30% mark. In the DSL, Beltre was right up there with the Brewers’ pair as far as DSL offensive impact with 11 home runs but perhaps a bit higher K rate than you would like to see in the DSL (23.8%). De Los Santos, praised for his upside, had bigger K issues, tallying in at 31%. He also, however, posted a 127 wRC+, so he managed to contribute in spite of the swing and miss. Fangraphs loved the upside of Roque, who missed plenty of bats in striking out better than 12 per nine. Unfortunately he also missed the plate too much, walking more than 10 per nine. Others of Note: Although he struggled there (78 wRC+), Daniel Pena at least reached low-A and kept the K rate to a reasonable number (although given he only caught 5 of 68 base stealers, I’m not sure he sticks behind the plate. In the Complex League, the star was catcher Ricardo Pena, who tallied a .969 OPS behind a .360 average and a lot of walks. Speaking of high walk rates, Bryan Acuna’s second go-around in the ACL went better than the first with a 120 wRC+ and Yilber Herrera almost matched him with a 117. Jayson Bass posted nearly league average numbers in his stateside debut as well. Miguel Cordero was the most impressive of the other teen pitchers in the ACL for the Twins, with a respectable 4.53 FIP behind a 6.97 ERA. In the DSL, Ricardo Paez (.813 OPS), Murphy Hernandez (.806) and Luis Fragoza (.784) all had strong seasons in each of their debuts. Melvin Rodriguez’s DSL debut season went well to the tune of a 2.72 ERA and a 4.0 K/BB rate. Cristian Hernandez rode 13.50 K/9 to strong results despite a 6.2 BB/9 rate. Overview: The system’s teen hitters, outside of Jenkins and Dameury Pena, strike out more than I’m generally comfortable with, but Jenkins is likely the best of the prospects covered in this post, and Soto, Hill and Bohorquez form a really intriguing mound trio. AL West Houston Astros: Insert Trash Can Joke Here Ranked Prospects: Kenni Gomez, OF (MLB 21); Jancel Villarroel, C (MLB 27, FG 24); Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF (MLB 28); Waner Luciano, 3B (MLB 30, FG 17); Camilo Diaz, 3B (FG 8); Esmil Valencia, OF (FG 21); Christopher Gonzalez, OF (FG 23); Raimy Rodriguez, P (FG 27) The Good: Kenni Gomez had a 121 wRC+in low-A before struggling with strikeouts in a late high-A call up. Villarroel also held his own in A ball after getting promoted from the Complex League and Ochoa also produced a slightly better than average offensive season for Carolina League. The bad: Baseball America said Gomez struggled too much against spin to bother ranking him in the top 30 IN THE ASTROS SYSTEM. Ochoa was similarly singled out for struggling against breaking balls after striking out almost 30% of the time. And finally, Fangraphs said it was too early to tell if the 5-8 Villarroel would stick at catcher. And those were the top performers. The power Luciano showed in the Complex League in 2023 evaporated in A ball, leading to a 75 wRC+. Diaz, a $2.3 million IFA signing from 2023, struck out more than 40% of the time in the FCL. Valencia followed a not-quite-average DSL season with a not-quite-average FCL season most noteworthy for only walking at a 3.1% clip. Gonzalez’s BABIP tanked during a repeat of the DSL, sending his wRC+ tumbling from 118 in 2023 to 60 in 2024. Raimy Rodriguez threw 82 ⅔ innings in low-A in his age 18 season, which is in and of itself an accomplishment. Unfortunately for Rodriguez, his trend of his walks increasing with each minor league stop continued as he issued free passes at an 8.27/9 clip. Others of Note: Not a ton here either. Karniel Pratt somehow posted a 134 wRC+ in the FCL while striking out 36% of the time and only hitting one homer. Catcher Carlos Cauro was average at the plate in the FCL, but threw out only one out of every 14 attempted base stealers while behind it. Even in the DSL, their top 3 performers were all repeaters, Sandro Pereira, Juan Sierra and Luis Quesada, and Pereira and Quesada were arguably better last year when they didn’t get promoted. Pitcher Anthony Gantes, who tallied a 2.52 ERA, was probably the best performer among the new DSLers. The only high school pick they signed in 2024 was a $150,000 17th round pick named Ethan Wagern. Overview: I’ve spent too much time on them already. Los Angeles Angels: Better Than I Expected Ranked Players (Fangraphs 2025 report): Nelson Rada, OF (MLB 4, FG 4); Joswa Lugo, SS (MLB 6, FG 16); Dario Leverde, C (MLB 9, FG 15); Trey Gregory-Alford, P (MLB 13); Felix Morrobel, SS (MLB 14, FG 33); Juan Flores, C (MLB 17, FG 13); Dylan Jordan, P (MLB, 18, FG 14); Capri Ortiz, SS (MLB 19, FG 18); Randy De Jesus, OF (MLB 23); Hayden Alvarez, OF (MLB 25, FG 23); Dioris De La Rosa, P (MLB 27); Ubaldo Soto, P (MLB 28, FG 38); Anyelo Marquez, 2B (FG 25); Bryan Martinez, OF (FG 34); Francis Texido, P (FG 39) The Angels had Rada skip high-A and he predictably looked overmatched in AA. On paper he seems like a slightly taller version of Luis Lara, but he was generating a fair amount of prospect buzz last season. Flores had a strong season for his age going in low-A but struggled upon being moved to high-A. Overall, though, not bad for a defense-first catcher who skipped the Complex League. The Angels had three others from this list perform well in low-A. Flores’ fellow catcher Laverde posted a .756 OPS, although it was only good for a 106 wRC+ because, well, the California League. His batted ball profile is Jadher Areinamo-esque, spraying line drives to all fields and his 22% K-rate, while far from ideal, only trailed Flores among the Inland Empire teens. After a disastrous Complex League stint in 2023, De Jesus had the best production, with an .811 OPS and 12 homers. He also, however, struck out almost 30% of the time. Ortiz posted league average production, which isn’t bad for a teen in A ball, but also K’d at a 27.5% clip. Morrobel made a lot of contact in tallying a League-Average Complex League Season but had only one extra base hit in 62 plate appearances with a ground ball rate that might make Hendry Mendez blush. In the DSL, Lugo was the Angels’ big 2024 IFA signing with a $2.3 million bonus. He showcased some pop in compiling an .836 OPS but also struck out 23.3% of the time and walked less than 8%. Alvarez was the other first year DSL hitter on the lists and is considered projectable. His roughly league average stat line has traits that I like in sleeper prospects. Marquez and Martinez were both repeating the DSL after disappointing first years, and both put up good stat lines. On the pitching side, Jordan (5th round) and Gregory-Alford (11th) were $1 million-plus bonus prep pitchers from the 2024 class, with Gregory-Alford almost taking home $2 million. De La Rosa and Soto had across the board good seasons in the DSL. Texido struggled in low-A after skipping the Complex League, but the team did think enough of him to send him there in the first place. Others of Note: Kevyn Castillo put up a .790 OPS in low-A after two DSL seasons, albeit with a 27% K rate. Jonathan Linares and Edwardo Espinal both had OK Complex League production, although it was mostly walk driven as both barely put the ball in play in half of their plate appearances. While it was aided by 14 HBPs, first baseman Jose Camacho had the best wRC+ among Angels DSLers at 138. Overview: Much better than I was expecting. I’m not really considering them one of the top teams for a few reasons (I’m not sure I buy Rada as a top prospect, skeptical of numbers posted at Inland Empire and too much K in too many hitters), but they are definitely not toward the bottom, either, which is where I expected them to be. Not Yet Vegas Athletics: Pretty weak overall Ranked Prospects (Fangraphs 2025 report): Steven Echavarria, P (FG 7, MLB 14); Cole Miller (FG 16, MLB 17); Myles Naylor (FG 34, MLB 15); Edgar Montero (FG 13) Echavarria, who got a $3 million bonus as a 3rd round pick in the 2023 draft, struggled in low-A, but the reports on his stuff were promising and he was an 18-year-old in the California League. What do you expect? Miller got a $1 million bonus as their 4th rounder in the same draft, but missed 2024 with Tommy John surgery. Naylor, a CB-A pick in 2023, failed to live up to his draft status in 2024, posting a 79 wRC+ and a nearly 35% K rate in Stockton. Montero had a few more K’s than you would like (22%) but did have 15 extra-base hits and walked a ton on his way to a 119 wRC+ in the DSL. Others of Note: Infielder Reinaldo De La Cruz got off to a great start in his second DSL season before an injury shut him down. Darling Fernandez turned in an all-around good offensive season in the DSL as well, although he too was repeating the level. On the pitching side, Alvin Nova struggled in the ACL before turning in three solid low-A appearances. Jefferson Jean struck out more than 16/9 in the ACL, but his high walk rate came back to haunt him in low-A when the strikeout rate fell. Franco Zabaleta had the best FIP among the A’s DSL hurlers and K’d more than 10.5/9, although the walk rate was a bit on the high side. They had two preps sign $550,000 deals in 2024, pitcher Josiah Romero (6th) and catcher Dylan Fien (7th). Overview: Echavarria is promising, but there just isn’t a ton here. It’s like they aimed to get ready for the eventual move to Vegas by ensuring most of their top prospects were over 21. Seattle Mariners: Let’s Just Focus on the Top Four Ranked Prospects: Colt Emerson, SS (MLB 1, FG 3); Felnin Celesten, SS (MLB 5, FG 5); Ryan Sloan, P (MLB 8, FG 8); Tai Peete, SS (MLB 11, FG 6); Jeter Martinez, P (MLB 18, FG 16); Dawel Joseph SS, (MLB 20, FG 11); Dylan Wilson, P (MLB 26); Ruddy Navarro, P (FG 30) If Jenkins was the top teenage prospect, Emerson is probably locked in a battle with the minor league star of the last team on this list for the No. 2 spot. While he struggled at high A (and the specter of the California League looms over his low-A stats), it was still a highly successful first full season for the Mariners’ 2023 first round pick. Celesten was the second ranked prospect in all of baseball in the 2023 IFA group. He missed all of the 2023 season with a hamstring injury, and a hamate injury ended his 2024 early, but when he was healthy he was among the best hitters in the ACL. Sloan was a $3 million signing as the Mariners’ second round pick in 2024 and received a lot of pre-draft hype. Peete, the other member of the Mariners’ top 4, was a high upside CB-A pick in 2023. He posted league-average production in low-A in 2024, but the 30+% K rate is a bit concerning. Martinez came back to earth a bit in the ACL after a stellar DSL season in 2023. His 11+ K/9 shows the promise, but his walk rate nearly doubled to 7 per 9. It was a similar story for Wilson, whose walk rate also skyrocketed in the ACL. Joseph was the Mariners’ big money IFA signing, but like basically the entire group of Mariners DSL position players, he really struggled (40 wRC+). Navarro turned in 3 stellar starts in his second DSL season but then was shut down by injury. Others of Note: Only two other teen position players had notable seasons: Outfielder Kelvin Alcantara, who posted a 110 wRC+ in the ACL, and catcher Eduardo Ponce, whose low K rate helped him be the only Mariners DSL player to break .700 in OPS (he had .761). The DSL pitching staff at least had a couple of solid first year performers peripherals wise. Ruben Ramirez was an older DSL debut at 19, but struck out 12+ per 9 and had a sub-4 FIP. Juan Cazarez had a great FIP but a 9 ERA thanks to having a 10.0 K/BB rate but giving up a ton of hits. Anderson Jimenez had a 6+ ERA but also struck out nearly 12 per 9 as a 16 year old. Overview: Much like the Rays, the Mariners have a very good 4 player group with suspect depth beyond that. They had by far the worst DSL offense in minor league baseball. They had one team and it averaged more than half a run per game less than the second worst (both Brewers squads bested it by more than two runs per game). The top talent probably makes this a top-5 group in the AL, but I don’t really see it as a contender for the No. 1 spot. Texas Rangers: There are a lot of good bats but … Ranked Prospects: Sebastien Walcott, SS (MLB 1, FG 1); Paulino Santana, OF (MLB 10, FG 16); Yolfran Castillo, SS (MLB 11); Braylin Morel, OF (MLB 20, FG 26); Yeremi Cabrera, OF (MLB 22, FG 10); Caden Scarborough (FG 19) After making a cameo DSL appearance last season, Walcott moved stateside, showing off a lot of extra base pop but also striking out a bunch. In 2024, the Rangers had him skip low-A and the move paid off as he posted a 123 wRC+ in high A as the K rate dropped to a still elevated but more understandable 25%. Cabrera had a great ACL campaign to follow a great second DSL season, but he never really adjusted to low-A, failing to clear .550 OPS in nearly 100 at-bats. Morel posted quality pop in the ACL after a great DSL debut in 2023. Castillo had one of the more interesting debuts from the 2024 IFA class. In 20 DSL games, he had a walk to strikeout rate of 2.75 and reached base at a .552 clip. He ended up at least holding his own in 15 games in the ACL after a midseason promotion, carried by a .333 batting average and a strikeout rate that ticked up from the DSL but was still only 10.6%. This is extreme hit over power so far, though. He tallied only five extra base hits, all doubles, and only one in the ACL. Santana is kind of a regression toward the mean version of Castillo stat-wise. He walked more than he struck out, but not to the same absurd degree. He tallied a few more extra base hits than Castillo, but not a ton more. Both are considered among the Rangers’ best prospects. Scarborough, the only pitcher on either list. The 2023 sixth-rounder only threw 10 ⅓ innings between the ACL and low-A tallying impressive K rates but less impressive walk rates. Others of Note: Prep shortstop Devin Fitz-Gerald was a $900,000 fifth round signing from a 2024 class that included only one other prep signee (Catcher Josh Springer, 12th, $200K). Among hitters who reached A ball, catcher Jesus Lopez was slightly below league average offensively and struck out nearly 30% of the time. Outfielder Jose De Jesus performed well in a return trip to the ACL before scuffling after a promotion to high-A. Antonis Mejias went from walking a ton and rarely striking out in carving up the ACL to basically doing the exact opposite in 15 A-ball games. Outfielder Hector Osorio continued to hit well in the ACL, just as he did in two DSL seasons, but the Rangers seemed to remain in little hurry to promote him. Pablo Guerrero, a 2023 IFA signee, had strong numbers but lofty K rates in the ACL before posting more manageable K rates but seeing everything else drop as well in A ball. As for the DSL, only the Rockies averaged more runs per game in the DSL than the Rangers, and they had one team to the Rangers’ two. And a lot of those top performers were really young, too. MLB teams averaged having less than 4 players in the DSL in their age 16 or 17 seasons who had a K rate 25% or less and an OPS of at least .700 in 100+ plate appearances. The Rangers had 8, trailing only the Brewers (13) and Red Sox (10), and that isn’t even including Castillo, who got promoted before he hit 100 plate appearances. The others who joined Santana in hitting the mark were Daniel Flames, Sebastian Baquera, Javier Sanchez, Curley Martha, Rashawn Pinder, Jose Marcano and Winder Linares. And that isn’t even including a bunch of guys who had really good second seasons in the DSL. Overview: Notice how I didn’t mention any pitchers in the others of note? That wasn’t an oversight. This is by far the most lopsided teen prospect group in baseball. They are among the very best when it comes to teen hitters, but the cabinet is pretty bare pitching wise. So, Who Is the Best in the AL? Well, the biggest surprise is that the Angels end up average here in my estimation, falling into the 7-9 grouping with the Tigers and the Orioles. So onto the top 6. The Red Sox really seem like a slightly better version of the Angels and Orioles systems, with all three buoyed by their depth. I’ve got them sixth. After that, it is to some degree pick your poison. Seattle and Tampa Bay have really intriguing top 4s but not much to back them up. The Rangers have great hitting but no real pitching to speak of. Since I prefer balance both in hitting/pitching and in top-tier and depth, that leaves two systems battling it out for first in my estimation. If you wanted to put the Jenkins-led Twins system first, I couldn’t really blame you. They have the top overall prospect, some really intriguing pitching and more depth than the top-heavy Mariners and Rays teen groups. Still, though, the amount of swing and miss from their non-Jenkins hitting prospects is enough for me to drop them below their division rivals. So, in my estimation, the top group in the American League is the Cleveland Guardians led by Jaison Chourio. We’ll see where they’ll fall overall after the next two parts. So, if you made it this far, what do you think? Is the Brewers group of teenagers as good or better than the best in the American League? Did I choose right in picking the Guardians? Let me know.

The other issue is Rodgers went full Rockies the last couple seasons, basically only hitting in Colorado. Does anyone know if there is usually a hangover from that for the more mediocre hitters or do they snap back to more balanced production fairly quickly? Because if it usually takes a while I would rather be the team that gives him a minor league deal in 2026 than endure the struggles this year.

1)Fast riser(s) (ie more than 2 levels): Yah, Made is the obvious choice. Other than him, I'd be tempted to go Yorman Galindez if I was sure he was going to be healthy to start the season (does anyone remember what procedure he had?) 2)Out of no where (Hunt, Yoho): Most of my initial thoughts here have already been said. So I will say while I don't believe either end up being Hunt or Yoho, I think Juan Martinez and Enderson Mercado jump a couple of tiers from where they are now. 3)Rise into consensus top 100 prospect: I think there are too many guys low on him from draft time who will be too stubborn to put Payne in the top 100 this soon unless he puts up absolutely absurd numbers, so I will go Yophery Rodriguez. 4)Comeback Player: Tempted to go with Quinton Low because of the upside or Pedro Ibarguen because can someone really go from that good in the DSL to looking completely out of place in the ACL two years in a row? I'll play it safer, though, and say Hedbert Perez 5)Struggles/Disappointment: Skipping 6)Individual/team predictions: The Brewers will once again have the youngest ACL team. One of the 2024 prep pitchers other than just Meccage breaks camp with Carolina and has a Bishop Letson type season.

The CBT calculations were interesting, and there were wrinkles I wasn’t aware of. I wish there was something more concrete on the TV deal. Theoretically there are reasons why it might not have been as bad for Milwaukee as some of the other teams caught up in it (they were one of the few teams that I believe was never dropped but rather the contract just ran out).

I think you forgot one 😁

Barring a surprise trade, Moncada does seem like the least bad option. While the injury risk is significant, he might be the only plausible 3B free agent who actually raises the team’s ceiling instead of just its floor.

1. With Martinez and Clarke in triple-A, I am guessing this is a make the roster or opt out situation. 2. I really wonder if Black isn’t going start the season in the Nashville outfield.

I think I would even do a 40-man spot. The problem is that I someone will likely trade more than I would be willing to give up for him given that he has one option left and could be two years away from earning a roster spot the whole season.

Another great job. Loved the reminder of just how good that Shuckers bullpen was. As for a triple-A question, McKendry, McGee, Middendorf and Stallings are all entering their age 27 season coming off years that were varying levels of disappointing. Were there any glimmers of hope that made you think 2025 might be the year one of them breaks through?

At the minimum this must mean the new deal is better than what they expected they would have gotten otherwise. So, I guess that is a plus.

Yes, yes and no, and no. Each pick in the first 10 rounds has a set value. The Brewers would get the pick in 2026 unless, I believe, it was the Levonas one because unless they changed it you can’t carry over a pick twice in a row. The issue is, not signing that player shrinks your bonus pool by the amount assigned to the pick. The Brewers couldn’t allocate the money assigned to that second round pick elsewhere last year. They just lost it. That is why you always see the slot or below slot guys sign first to avoid issues where a guy you were counting on to sign $100,000 under slot doesn’t sign and now you are facing penalties.

If we extended the prospect poll out to 25, I feel like the 25 names here would be those 25 in some order. Maybe Baez sneaks in, but I can't guess over who (I've got him over Burke, but that just says more about my inherent distrust of college 1B prospects than anything else).

Biloxi question: With triple-A pitching spots usually at a premium at least to start the year, which of the guys who finished last season at Biloxi do you think has the best shot to start 2025 in triple-A?

Gantner was basically a league average hitter in 1982. That made him above average among second basemen of the time. Braun was abysmal defensively at third. Even with the Fangraphs WAR calculation, which is more favorable to the 2007 team, the right side of the infield is basically a wash with Cooper a bit ahead of Fielder (the difference offensively isn't as big as you might think, and Cooper was the better defender) and Weeks a bit ahead of Gantner. Braun's defense leaves him way behind Molitor's 1982, and I am sorry, as solid as Hardy was, he is being compared to the best season in Brewers history. The 1982 infield contained arguably the best seasons in the careers of two Hall of Famers and probably the second best seasons from its other two members. This 2016 article labeled them the best single-season infield of all time. I'm sorry, but this isn't even close.

Thanks for the Christmas present. Also, my interpretation of Areinamo’s first go around in high-A was that it was both 100% injury related (if I recall it ended as the ACL season was starting so he could go play there) and a vote of confidence because they sent him instead of two higher bonus middle infielders who were also still in extended spring training (Barrios and Guilarte).

I guess I'll go 16 here. Really right now I've got one giant tier from 9-25 and he is somewhere in that grouping.

You will sometimes get a clear-cut No. 1 who, while it is impossible to project definite major league success onto a 16-year-old who has never even played an affiliated game, at least seems destined to sail through the low minors. Your Dominguez or Salas or De Vries. Beyond that, though, it is basically just really broad tiers. Some years those tiers are even broader than normal, at least in retrospect. In the 2021 class that I wrote about, prospects 16-30 on Pipeline's list were better than Nos. 1-15, and if it weren't for Chourio, Nos. 31-50 probably would have been better than 16-30 given that is where Samuel Basallo and Moises Ballesteros probably would have fallen. 2023, on the other hand, has been much better to the higher ranked prospects. I also wonder sometimes if listmakers are a bit hesitant to deviate too much from the level of bonus the players are receiving. Maybe it was just the selective quotes posted here, but in 2019, it seemed as if despite Luis Medina being the top-ranked and largest bonus prospect in the Brewers' class that the praise was louder for Hedbert Perez and Jeferson Quero on signing day. Same thing for Luis Lara vs. Jhonny Severino and Johan Barrios in 2022.

I kind of assumed the whole point of this trade was they only want to count on Woody, Ashby and Hall to fill one starting spot between them and not two.

This one is more general, but a couple of the options were on the T-Rats 60-day IL, so I will ask it here: Which pitcher who missed the full season in 2024 are you most excited to see back out there at some point in 2025? Also, I tended to see the worst Timber Rattler performances when they were in the Quad Cities. The one exception was Jheremy Vargas. Outside of increased versatility, were there any positives to take from the rest of his season?

Almost four years ago, Major League Baseball teams embarked on the opening of the annual international signing period. Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, it had been more than 18 months since the opening of the previous signing period, but finally the top Latin American prospects could sign on the dotted line. Since that day in 2021, the Brewers have witnessed the rise of a potentially franchise-altering star. The results for the other 29 players who made MLB Pipeline’s top 30 international prospects for that class, however, shows just how big of an outlier Jackson Chourio is and why we should temper expectations for even the highest bonus international prospects. 1 of 26 Chourio wasn’t the only player to sign with the Brewers that day. Milwaukee inked 26 players in total. Fifteen of those have since been cut. Three were traded (Hendry Mendez, Gregory Barrios and Samuel Escudero, all of whom are still with the teams that traded for them). That leaves eight, including Chourio, still in the Brewers organization. The others are Jadher Areinamo, Patricio Aquino, Dikember Sanchez, Luis Castillo, Daniel Guilarte, Alexander Vallecillo and Edgardo Ordonez. All in all, six players who have reached at least high-A, with all four of the hitters posting OPSs of at least .700 last season (with Areinamo, Barrios and Mendez joining Chourio). So why am I discussing the Brewers signings in a blog about how the top-ranked DSL signings from that year fared? Well, it will become clear a little bit later. Pipeline’s Top 30 Pipeline’s top 30 international prospects from the 2021 signing class can be broken up into three categories. We’ll save the largest, the teenage hitters for last. The Older Cuban Prospects Coming in at No. 1 and No. 6 on the list, Cubans Yoelqui Cespedes and Pedro Leon were both the oldest and among the biggest named prospects on the MLB Pipeline top 30. Given that they were both at least 22 when they signed and were considered high level prospects, it is no surprise that both advanced to AAA in rapid fashion. What is surprising is that they then proceeded to just kind of stay there. Leon, after nearly three full seasons in AAA, finally earned a spot on the Astros last season. He proceeded to tally two singles, one walk and 10 strikeouts in 21 big league at bats. At least, however, Leon made the big leagues. Cespedes was released by the White Sox before the start of the 2024 season before struggling in Indy Ball as well. The Pitchers How often does the same team sign the top-rated hitter and the top-rated pitcher in a signing class? That’s what happened to the White Sox in 2021. Four years later, what do they have to show for it? Nothing. No MLB games played. No trade value in return. Just a bunch of dashed hopes. Norge Vera, another Cuban, clocked in at 20th overall on Pipeline’s list and was the top pitcher. He was a couple years younger than Cespedes and Leon but was still 3-4 years older than most of the other players in the class when he signed. A successful debut season had him up to No. 5 on the White Sox prospect list, but injuries and ineffectiveness eventually got him released in 2024. He is currently with the A’s organization. The only other pitcher on the list was also the final one, with the Padres’ Victor Lizarraga slotting in at No. 30. Lizarraga has been, statistically at least, one of the biggest bright spots on the list. The only one of the teenage signings other than Chourio to spend the entire 2024 season at double-A or higher, Lizarraga spent the entirety of his age-20 season in the double-A rotation and more than held his own, posting a 4.03 ERA, an even better FIP and more than a strikeout per inning. A lack of fastball velocity keeps him from being considered a top prospect, but relative to most players on the list he has been a massive success. The Teenage Hitters The rest of the group, 26 in all, was composed of teenage hitters. Of those four spent most or all of the 2024 season still toiling in the complex leagues, with three of the four posting a sub-.600 OPS there. Another 10 didn’t crack high-A, with all of them posting sub-.700 OPSs at low-A. That includes the Dodgers’ Wilman Diaz and the Rays’ Carlos Colmenarez, who were ranked second and third overall behind Cespedes. In total, of the 13 teenage hitters ranked above Chourio, only five have cracked high-A, and none of those performed all that well at that level. Of the 12 remaining in this group, you can divide them into a few categories: Guys Who Spent Most of the Year at Low-A Three of the players fall into this group, with Cristian Hernandez of the Cubs and Dodgers catcher Jesus Galiz standing out for hitting well enough to deserve the promotion rather than it feeling like a last-ditch, we have to do something type move. High-A, But With Mixed Results Here you have five players, all of whom posted sub-.700 OPSs in high-A. Three really struggled, but two are a bit more nuanced. The Rockies’ Dyan Jorge supposedly has a fair amount of physical projection and has done just enough not to dash all hopes that he will reach it. The Twins' Danny De Andrade had a solid 2023 at low-A and was just below .700 when he got hurt and missed the rest of the season. The Outlier The only teenage position player signee other than Chourio to play most of the 2024 season at double-A is a curious case. After posting an 86 wRC+ in low-A in 2023, Denzer Guzman started 2024 with a 92 wRC+ in 84 high-A plate appearances, largely supported by a .451 BABIP given his 33% K rate and sub-5% walk rate. His team had seen enough, though, and promoted him to AA where he predictably struggled (83 wRC+ and a .601 OPS). Any guess which organization he plays for? The High-A Successes This group is led by Angel Genoa, the Guardians’ No. 4 prospect by Pipeline, coming in one spot behind Jackson Chourio’s brother Jaison. Genoa totaled an .840 OPS in high-A after starting the season demolishing low-A pitching. The other member is the Giants’ No. 14 prospect Diego Velasquez, who tallied a .746 OPS in high-A before improving to .764 during a month-plus spent in AA. Jackson Chourio He stands alone. So What Does This Mean? Here are a few things to consider: The Brewers signed 18 teenage hitters in 2021, which means that, including Chourio, 22% of the Brewers’ signings posted a .700+ OPS at high-A or above last season. Of the 26 teenage hitters in the top 30 list, only 11.5% can say the same thing. So you are almost twice as likely to get a player who meets that criteria choosing a random one of the Brewers’ signings than one from the Pipeline list. This isn’t to say the Brewers had four of the best signings. There are several really good prospects on other teams that didn’t make the top 30 list. It just means that making the top 30 isn’t close to a guarantee of success, even at the lower levels of the minor leagues. The median performance from the teenage hitters on this list is roughly the same as two other Brewers from that signing class, Daniel Guilarte and Luis Castillo, and both of them have recently had seasons that were considered vaguely disappointing. To put it another way, Yophery Rodriguez has already experienced more success than over half of the teenage hitters on this list despite playing two fewer seasons. The run the Brewers have been on is great, but statistically there are bound to be some guys like Johan Barrios and Kevin Ereu who take a bit longer to hit their stride or, as we can all remember from some of the earlier Brewers international signing classes, ones who just never do. So keep your expectations reasonable and be pleasantly surprised if another Chourio-type emerges (as seemed to be the case last season with Made and Pena). And remember, it is going to take a lot of whiffs for the Brewers’ post-pandemic success rate to even fall back to average.