CheeseheadInQC

You’ve got the following options for the 13 position players: Locks: Two catchers. If Caratini isn’t dealt, these are set. Santana, Adames, Yelich Near locks: Wiemer, Frelick Hitting well, right now at least: Monasterio, Toro Expected back in August: Tellez, Anderson If you have all of these, which obviously some aren’t locks, leaves two spots: Second base: Turang, Miller, Urias 4th Outfielder: Taylor, Perkins Wild card: Hiura

I wouldn’t mind if Chourio stays in AA to finish the year. If the goal is to refine his approach to make him more selective, I would rather have him do it in AA to get the toughest part done in a league where he has proven he can hit. Then start him at AAA next year and promote him when he is ready. Don’t rush things but don’t fall into the “But he could be even MORE ready …” trap either.

*Checks Nashville box* Post coming in 3 … 2 … 1 … 😀

I really think that Hiura is a victim of bad timing. Just as the Brewers might have been considering him, he gets hurt (the only batting roster move they made before that was for a replacement center fielder when Mitchell got hurt). He didn’t get hot again right away at Nashville and then by the time he was hitting well again, you had someone on the same type of absurd streak he was on to start the season (Toro).

There are obviously differences, especially on defense, but he kind of reminds me of Devanney, in that the Brewers seem to not fully see them as a top prospect but are impressed enough with the results to see where things go.

While Hiura’s season stats are better, Toro has arguably been better of late, along with the defensive edge.

Man, I remember watching Neugebauer’s debut. Biggest what if in an era of what ifs for Brewers pitching prospects.

If the Brewers trade Mendez it will be because of the return, not Miller. 1. Mendez is one of just 11 teenagers to get at least 50 at bats at high-A or above this season. Of those, he has the lowest K rate. 2. Injuries and other issues have actually left the Brewers without a ton of organizational outfield depth. There has been plenty of outfield time available throughout the year if the Brewers wanted to move Miller. The fact that they haven’t shows it isn’t a priority, definitely not one worth dealing the organization’s No. 5 outfield prospect.

Is it possible the guy with nine big league plate appearances this year is the best player in the Wong-Winker trade? And yah, the Brewers made out OK getting Peguero as well. Back on topic, I am still bullish on Mendez. I think he figures out a way to turn enough ground balls into line drives for his profile to play.

The power has come back but he is striking out more and walking less than even May or June. That concerns me.

This article for me kind of indicates why dealing for a bat is going to be tough. Donovan is going to be the most expensive, and unless the Brewers are willing to give up Peralta or Misiorowski, I don’t know if there is a match (maybe if you deal both Gasser and Rodriguez, but I am not sure). Plus who knows if he will actually be able to play in the field again this season. Rooker has managed to have his strikeout and walk rates get worse each month. Vaughn is an interesting idea if the White Sox are just wanting to move on and the prospects involved reflect that. If not, however, you are looking at paying for years of control that you won’t want at higher prices unless his play significantly improves. Given the difference in prospect capital possibly needed, it almost would be better if he was a rental.

I don't think that this gets anywhere near as close as this chart suggests for a number of reasons: 1. I don't like speaking ill of prospects, especially ones that I once was really high on like Valerio, but putting any number next to him right now is wishful thinking. I know he is still young, but he doesn't really have a good defensive home, his offense has plateaued, he is a year from minor league free agency and he has lost much of his playing time, including to guys who aren't really considered top prospects. He is unfortunately probably closer to being a guy left exposed in the AAA phase of the rule 5 draft than someone who brings a positive trade value at this point. He needs to start hitting again before he'd have any value, and there is not enough time before the deadline for that to happen in a sufficient quantity. 2. I don't know that this is properly valuing Soto. Fangraphs in one of their trade value articles made the case that the value of a superstar to a team is greater than the projected WAR/contract size analysis that these types of sites do. I sort of agree with them, especially if it isn't taking into account the fact that increased revenues would offset part of the contract, maybe not to Ohtani levels, but definitely a non-negligible amount. 3. This isn't just about what a "fair" offer is from a numbers perspective from the Brewers. They would be bidding against other teams. Those would include larger market clubs for whom not only would the contract size not be an issue, but they'd also have a season+ to convince him to re-sign, which adds value that wouldn't be there for Milwaukee. 4. You are also bidding against a minimum that the Padres would take for him. As awkwardly constructed as that team was, they still have the third best run differential in the NL right now and are absolutely built to be a win-now team. Even if they throw in the towel for this season and trade the impending free agents, they could always plug the gaps and hope to get different results running it back. The incentive isn't really there for them to take a "fair" offer just because it is "fair."

I agree with you that McMahon would be pricier than expected but I don’t think having two of your worst case scenarios (while obviously ignoring the superstars) include a guy who very well might still end up having a better career than McMahon and a pitcher who almost certainly would have had injuries not struck helps your case the way you think it does.

Just because it is a thing that interests me, while none were incredibly close, Henderson, Zamora and Mendez were next. Players with one vote included, I think, Cornielle, Birchard, Jimenez and Severino. I’d go with Prado as best not to receive a vote, but there are certainly other good candidates for that title, too.

McMahon for me falls into that weird zone of being not good enough to deal a king’s ransom for but too good and controllable for too long for the Rockies to accept anything less. I don’t think Chourio would be the ask, but it would be substantial, I imagine.

I get that. There are things to be concerned about there, like the pop up issue and the less than ideal line drive rate, and I did have him in a tier that went down to 16. It just feels like he has ended up a bit under the radar for someone putting up thus far, offensively at least, the best first full season for a Brewers high school pick in at least 15 years.

I think Adams might be a bit underrated. His stats would fit right in with the non-Holliday first round prep hitters from last draft.

If he comes cheap, which I am guessing he would, Grichuck wouldn’t be awful. Not an impact bat but at least a marginal upgrade.

Jeferson Quero I'll be that guy. This isn't a knock on Chourio as much as I'm just that high on Quero. Everything about his profile screams longtime big leaguer, and it is very promising that he took his one knock at the plate, drawing walks, and made a ton of progress in-season.Jackson Chourio I'm not down on Chourio. He is still absurdly young for his level and has amazing tools. How good he is at making the adjustments that this year has shown he needs will determine just how close to his sky high ceiling he gets.Jacob Misiorowski Having seen one of his lesser outings probably didn't help him in the three-way race for the top spot here. If he can manage to consistently command that arsenal ... wow.Sal Frelick A bit of a lost year so far, hopefully he can turn it around in the second halfTyler Black The nervousness over where he plays keeps me from ranking him any higher.Robert Gasser Has righted the ship, and looking like a big league starter while in AAA will go a long way in my rankings.Luis Lara Upside is a question, but he is still 18 and has the third lowest swinging strike rate in the Carolina league, trailing two guys each four or more years his senior.Carlos F Rodriguez We'll see if the command evens out once the sticky ball experiment is done. If it does, he might leap Gasser to the No. 6 spot.Luke Adams While the recent slump has dropped it a bit, has a really low swinging strike rate for a 19-year-old with power in A ball. More line drives would be nice, but he has exceeded expectations so far.Josh Knoth As I said in the draft thread, this is the pick I am most excited about.Yophery Rodriguez I have a feeling this is either five spots too high or five spots too low. I'm beginning to think it is the latter.Brock Wilken If he hits enough to get to the power, I don't care if he has to move to firstHendry Mendez When he is at his best he is spraying line drives all of the field. He needs to be more consistent about it, but he is still really advanced for his age.Cooper Pratt A surprising and very promising pickEric Brown Jr Has been solid considering the injuries have kept him from really getting into a groove. Abner Uribe If he can command that stuff, the Brewers have another dominant relieverPatricio Aquino This is the dropoff point, but when in doubt I go with a young pitcher putting up good numbersQuinton Low Raw, but the stuff sounds electric. Hopefully he can shake off some of the recent control problems.Alexander Cornielle His peripherals point to him being as good as last year even if the ERA doesn't. Hopefully a second half bounce-back is coming.Daniel Guilarte When healthy, it seemed like some of the ground balls were starting to turn into line drives, a very good development. The only clear-cut decisions for me were Frelick 4, Black 5, and, mostly, Carlos Rodriguez 8 (There's still a part of me that wonders if I made a mistake not bumping Yophery Rodriguez up 5 more spots to 6). 1-3 were very close, as were Gasser and Lara. Then you had the fact that there were 16 guys I would have been fine placing in my top 10. Very little separated Adams at 9 from Uribe at 16 (sorry Abner, in prospect rankings a tie definitely does not go to the relief pitcher). Then It was a tough call on the last four spots among nine players. The other five: Henderson, Di Turi, Bitonti, Moore and Zamora. I had Henderson in and Guilarte out until swapping at the last minute. While Guilarte obviously hasn't been a picture of health either, being injury-prone just scares me more in a pitcher. If it weren't for that, he would have been 17th.

I know his batting average screams it, but I think there is more to Adams’ hitting than the 3TO moniker would suggest. Prior to his recent slump, his swinging strike rate was just slightly behind pure contact hitting teammates Luis Lara and Jadher Areinamo. For a guy his age with power potential, the contact skills are solid. They just didn’t turn into the kind of batting average you’d hope for. One of the posters who watches the games would have to say if it was bad luck or the type of contact.

Who knows if there will be a chain reaction, but the guys who started along with him Saturday at low-A and AA also have a case for promotion

Calzadilla has done a ton to hold that staff together, but I have to think, especially after yesterday’s game, the soon to arrive pitching depth will come in handy for the young and occasionally blow-up prone group.

The Brewers haven't missed signing anyone in the first 10 rounds under the current system. I doubt it starts this year. I'd prefer they draft a few more signable players on day 3 than they did this year (presumably, who knows, maybe they sign more than I expect), but the fact is, under Manfred's the best thing for baseball is less baseball regime, the number of rookie league jobs that have been cut is more than the number of rounds cut at a time when the Brewers are graduating more players from the DSL than they ever have. Signing all 20 isn't that big of a deal.

The five position players on the ACL team team most likely to get promoted include two catchers, a second baseman, a shortstop and a third baseman. They'll have enough behind the plate and infield between those guys, the holdovers and the top two prep infielders. They should be fine there. Coming into the draft, I was actively rooting for no college middle infielders after the first couple of rounds simply because there were less opportunities for playing time there for non-top prospects. The outfield on the other hand ... outside of Mercado, who probably already should be in full season ball by age and performance, most of the ACL outfielders are getting either minimal playing time or flat out struggling to consistently put the bat on the ball. Yophery Rodriguez could skip the ACL, but it wouldn't shock me if an infielder like Jhonny Severino gets moved to the outfield along with a few holdovers just to get all the best prospects in the lineup. The place where they needed depth for Carolina was the pitching staff. Carolina has more pitchers in line for promotion than hitters right now, and the ACL pitching staff doesn't have many standouts. The pitching heavy draft makes sense logistically, even if I doubt many of the Day 3 prep hurlers sign.

I'm a little late to the party (need to retrieve my password from the desktop to get back logged in on my phone), but I'll echo everyone to say I'm feeling much better about the draft than I was 24 hours ago. 1. I like what I've read about Boeve as a player, but his profile has such a narrow development path that I was a little disappointed when it looked like he was going to be the third best prospect from this year's class. But as the sixth best? That's a good draft class. 2. Yes, I said sixth. I just automatically assume at this point that any JUCO pitcher the Brewers take is going to turn into a legit prospect. 3. The logistics of the Wisconsin and Carolina rosters are going to be interesting next year. It gets glossed over because of the number of top level prospects in the outfield, but the infield was already deeper on the lower levels (you could make a case that the top three prospects on the ACL team are all infielders) and this draft just increases that disparity. Yophery Rodriguez pulling a Chourio/Mendez/Lara and reaching A ball early next year could help, but it wouldn't shock me if a couple of infielders get cross-trained just to get the bats in the lineup. 4. The Brewers taking a fifth-year freshman seems like the perfect follow-up to taking a fourth-year JUCO and a D-II pitcher on day 2 last year. Let it never be said that the Brewers leave any stone unturned when it comes to locating college pitching. 5. As intriguing as all of these third basemen or likely future third basemen are, I'm sticking with Knoth as my favorite pick from the draft class. I'm a sucker for upside arms.