CheeseheadInQC

I'd go with the pitcher, but either is a really good option

With Bradfield, it is all dependent on how often you think he's going to get on base. Billy Hamilton with a .350 OBP is valuable. Billy Hamilton with a sub-.300 OBP is, well, Billy Hamilton. He is toward the bottom of my list for 18 (I'd probably go the Whitman, save money for later route before him) but I wouldn't write him off if he's the pick either. He's a projected first rounder for a reason.

Any predictions? Unless something surprising happens like Waldrep falling, I'll say Shaw, Miller, Davis as the likely picks, in that order. Whitman wouldn't surprise me at 33, and while the Brewers haven't taken/had much luck with high school pitching recently, I wonder if Knoth might not enter into the conversations with one of the latter two picks today. While I don't know if they have the same evaluator as last year, Fangraphs' board seemed to line up best with the Brewers' out of the publicly available ones I saw last draft, and they have him mid-20s.

Their first three position players drafted just two years ago were Frelick, Black and Binelas. All were bat-first prospects.

I'm not discounting Miller, if only because the Brewers have shown a willingness recently to grab guys who for whatever reason fell much lower than they were projected to go a year out, Miller would fit the bill. I feel like, outside of the top 5 guys, so much seems up in the air. I have a feeling the other three top college pitchers and Teel are off the board by the time that the Brewers pick, but I don't know that there is another player in that tier that I'd by shocked if they got to the Brewers. There are a number of guys that have been mocked anywhere from top 10 to mid-20s, and not necessarily as below-slot options.

This repeated argument doesn't quite irk me as much as the "Packers never drafted Rodgers a first-round wide receiver" thing, but it is up there. The fact is, there have been 18 players who baseball reference lists as first or third basemen taken in the first three rounds of the last three drafts combined, with the Brewers taking one (Binelas), putting them average or above without even counting Warren, who was optimistically announced as a catcher. Similarly, while the two highest bonus members of the Brewers' 2022 international signing class were announced as shortstops, they were shortstops in the same way Jake Gatewood was a shortstop, no one thought it would last. Low and behold, a year and change later, they are mostly playing first and third base in Arizona after being moved off shortstop in favor of a guy announced as a catcher at the time of his signing. You could also make a good case that two of the Brewers top 10 prospects are currently playing third base for their respective teams (depending on where you place Adams in the rankings, who was basically the equivalent of a fifth-rounder bonus wise last year). The Brewers have struggled to get production from those positions for sure, but their asset allocation for them in recent years is very much in line with league norms. If you wanted Wagner or Melendez or Lochlear over Brown last year, fine. I was rooting a little bit for Wagner myself (although he has been more solid than spectacular so far). But the Brewers in the last few years are pretty normal.

Given the team's recent track record, I'm kind of hoping none, especially if we are dealing pitching. We don't have enough upside pitching to keep trading it at the deadline for middling relievers.

I'd have no problem with Taylor, and it's a pick that would fit some of the Brewers' tendencies. That being said, was I the only one who cringed when I saw pick 21? They've had too much success with the upside prep bats recently for me to want to see Miller end up there.

I remember him being mentioned as one of the only bright spots in the Angels system when it was at its nadir. Had no idea what had happened to him since then, though.

Misiorowski didn't have A+ command tonight, but wow does the ball explode out of his hand. I had to snap a photo at one point because he "broke" the stadium pitch speed display (it is not set up to handle triple digits, so along with a bevy of 99s and 98s he had a few 00s). He got a few gasps from people around me about how hard he was throwing. Also, Mendez had a couple of other reasonably hard hit liners along with the home run. He was making the best contact of any of the Rattlers tonight. This applies to basically all hitters, but especially given Mendez's groundball profile, the more line drives the better.

Actually managed to get to a game when the Rattlers were in town for the first time in a while. Thoughts on first time seeing these guys live: 1. I was sitting at an angle where I couldn't see why, but Woessner didn't have it. I had told my wife beforehand that he was one of the team's most consistent pitchers and toward the top of the list of guys I wanted to see when they were in town. About the time the eighth run crossed the plate she turned to me and said something to the effect of "I think you jinxed him." While the first four and last four batters he faced did most of the damage, the Bandits were getting solid contact off him all night. Brady obviously did a much better job keeping them off-balance. 2. I was sitting "behind" the plate but shaded far enough toward first base where I was basically facing right-handed hitters square-on. Brown's set-up looks weirder from this angle than it does from the behind the plate or center-field zoomed shots that I've normally seen. 3. Watching Matt Wood hit kind of cemented my thoughts after looking at the Fangraphs numbers for him. Lot of line drives, few swings and misses, exit velocities will end up eventually telling the tale. 4. Moore sure is agile defensively at second. Really agile. 5. Yah, it looked like that ball in the seventh hit the line. The Bandit overran it enough where I think the ump assumed it was heading foul. It was a tough call and these guys are still learning their craft the same way the players are, so I won't hold that against him. I will say about him, though, don't be the guy who makes the unnecessarily delayed strike call on a 3-2 pitch where the batter has already tossed the bat and taken a couple of steps to first. Just don't be that guy. 6. If you want a four-year-old's first time at a ball game to be positive (and keep the whining to a minimum), two types of ice cream and two carousel rides help (the Bandits have a carnival area with rides behind the left field fence). Unfortunately, the fireworks finale got a bit loud for her and left a negative impression for the car ride home. 7. For a variety of reasons I haven't gotten out to the park much since the Midwest League bumped up to high-A. It does feel like a noticeable difference. There were some rough low-A games. I can still remember a game where Corey Kemp, who was a good low-A hitter, but not exactly agile behind the plate, was trying to catch Evan Fredrickson and I think a very off his game Cody Scarpetta. It looked like he eventually got fed up and stopped even trying, just waiting for the ball to bounce off the backstop and roll back to him. While that game was an outlier even by low-A standards, the play felt a lot crisper here. 8. It felt like the person who was having the toughest time adjusting to the pitch clock was the person doing PA system. The umpire finally angrily gestured up to the booth after they didn't turn off some music until the second pitch of an at-bat. 9. After last night I both get why Ernesto Martinez is fun to dream on and why his number haven't exactly been consistent. When he made solid contact, the ball just exploded off his bat, and not just on the home run. But man, with the swings he takes I'm actually kind of impressed he doesn't strike out more. Depending on weather and family celebrations I might try to see Misiorowski throw Sunday, It was nice to get back to the ballpark.

Is the plan still July for Brian Fitzpatrick? He seemed like a potential sleeper if he could stay healthy.

He's not an obvious candidate for this because before today June had been his lowest OPS month, but over the offseason and through the first two months, the biggest knock on Jeferson Quero had been his walk rate. I believe it is roughly 20% in June. Hopefully today's homer can be the start of him combining the power he showed in May with June's more patient approach. If he can manage to do that ...

Even most of the transactions I disagree with, I can at least understand the rationale behind them. That one never made a lick of sense to me.

Just saying ... Honestly, first basemen rarely get drafted all that high anymore. I believe there are eight total over the last four drafts listed as first basemen who went in the first two rounds.

Anyone else read the last tidbit on Kemp Alderman in this article and think, yep, he's going to be a Brewer? Only sort of joking.

If Barrios and Perez can keep up their recent hitting and Areinamo can show some extra-base pop like he did today with more regularity, that Carolina offense gets a lot more interesting.

Luis Lara is currently second in K/BB among all low-A players with at least 100 at bats. As an 18 year old. He is not alone on that Carolina roster when it comes to making contact according to Fangraphs' stats. Given that same 100 at bat threshold, they have seven Brewers prospects among the 50 lowest swinging strike rates in low-A. They have 5 of the 15 in that group who are in their age 18 or 19 season (Lara, Guilarte, Areinamo, Adams and Barrios).

Based on playing time and batting order, it is beginning to look like the Brewers’ current hierarchy for ACL playing time is Severino Baez/O’Rae Norman Barrios/Ordonez That is going to make it tough to find lineup spots for all of the holdover infielders.

Sometimes the key to winning in the DSL is having a pitcher that can find the strike zone. Brewers 2 take the lead in the seventh despite being no hit because they have drawn 11 walks and gotten hit three times compared to 0 and 0 so far for Brewers pitchers.

Really glad that Corniel is starting tonight. He had a deceptively good season last year (best xFIP of any starter who finished the year in the DSL for the Brewers) and when he didn’t show up on any initial roster I figured we’d soon have another injured-full season on our hands.

Sal Frelick hit across every level of the minors and is generally considered to have one of the better hit tools in the minors. Is it weird that I kind of think he’s the Brewers’ fourth best prospect, and not even in an out of sight, out of mind way. I was hoping to see Misiorowski when the Timber Rattlers come to town at the end of the month, so if he is going to get promoted again this season I need him to hold off a couple more weeks.

I think you are simultaneously selling Lara and Brady Clark short in that write up.

You are correct that sacrificial lamb applies more to Doston. I looked it up and I think it was actually the Howell deal, because you had three outfielders in high-A, who had experience at high-A and promoted Campbell who didn’t. It looked a bit like they did the old maxim where the top prospects get assigned where they belong and everyone else fills in. Maybe I was wrong and they thought Campbell was the best prepared for high-A, but regardless he took the opportunity and ran with it.

You might be right that he was filling Cantrelle’s spot. I just remember that the promotion felt like he was a bit of a sacrificial lamb but he proved he belonged.