CheeseheadInQC

With pitchers and catchers reporting, I thought I would celebrate by delving into one of my favorite topics, a random assemblage of minor league statistics. There were a lot to choose from, ranging from Darrien Miller's caught stealing percentage to a bunch of guys' strikeout rates, but here are three others to keep your eye on. 1. Ground ball rate, Jadher Areinamo If you were to construct batted ball stats for a hitter without a ton of power, there is a decent chance that they would look similar to Areinamo's in the complex league last season. He was fifth in the ACL in line drive rate (25%) and split the others relatively evenly between ground balls (40%) and fly balls (35%). He hit the ball to all fields. He had the fourth lowest swinging strike rate in the ACL. He walked as often as he struck out. And he hit doubles, lots of doubles. Almost 10% of his plate appearances ended up in extra base hits. After his promotion to Carolina, many of those traits remained. He still hit a healthy number of line drives. His swinging strike rate was still down in Hendry Mendez territory. Two things did change, though. His ground ball rate jumped more than 15% and the doubles power disappeared. You might be wondering why I didn't pick one of the obvious choices for this stat: Garrett Mitchell, Hendry Mendez or, as Smichaelis9 mentioned in his top prospect list, Daniel Guilarte. The reason is because while the stats might measure success, each of those would likely require swing changes, so the changes could be seen before the results are (if Mendez could duplicate Areinamo's line drive and fly ball rates from the ACL he is probably a top 100 prospect). With Areinamo, it is not about the swing. The Complex League stats proved that. It is about continuing to make quality contact as he faces increasingly good pitching moving up the ladder. Restoring his ACL batted ball splits would be a good way putting him on track to maximize his potential. 2. Walk rate, Jeferson Quero There seems to be one thing that is keeping some of the national prospect evaluators from being as high on Quero as some on this site (including obviously me). It is not his defense or intangibles. Those garner universal praise. It isn't the hit tool. He made it up to high-A during his age-19 season without ever topping a 20% strikeout rate at any level. And it isn't his power, which seems more than adequate for the position. No, the question involves Quero's approach at the plate, namely if it is too aggressive. And, to be fair, the 2.4% walk rate after his promotion to high-A seems to bear that out. The thing is, it wasn't always this way. Before getting injured, Quero posted a 14.5% walk rate in the ACL, walking more than he struck out. But each move up the ladder has led to fewer walks. He has enough going for him that he might be able to become a legitimate starting catcher even with a walk rate closer to 5% than 10%. But to be a true impact player at the position rather than just one of the top 30, the walk rate probably needs to start climbing back closer to double digits, especially since, given how scarce .300 hitters are in general these days, he probably doesn't hit .313 in the big leagues like he did in Wisconsin. 3. ISO, Gregory Barrios Remember all of those elements about Areinamo's batted ball stats that I praised earlier? What if I were to tell you that there was another Complex League infielder who in many ways mirrored Areinamo? Balanced LD/GB/FB rates? Check. Uses all fields? Check. Where Areinamo was fourth in the ACL in swinging strike rate, he was sixth. And to top it off, he is already one of the steadiest middle infield defenders in the Brewers' system. He also has yet to get a single point on our most recent prospect poll, and I believe I was highest on him, putting him at No. 38. So why isn't Gregory Barrios getting more prospect love? It comes down to the fact that if you added his ISOs from his first two seasons of pro ball together, you still wouldn't get to .1. Ultimately, he needs to at least develop doubles power to make a mark in a system that is suddenly flush with lower minor league infielders. If he manages to do that, though, it seems possible that he could be one of the bigger risers in the system this season.

Cain’s 2018 got overshadowed by Yelich, but Fangraphs ranks it as the second best season by a Brewers center fielder ever, just behind Gomez’s best season and ahead of Yount’s second MVP. It will be interesting to see which direction you go with the fifth spot for right field: skill, excitement or longevity.

As fun as a Scotty Pods’ time with the Brewers was and as poorly as last season went, I still think LoCain belongs on this list. He was the second best player on one of the best teams in franchise history.

Yah, I'd love Hunter Brown, but I'm not holding my breath. In kind of the area that Carpenter was prospect-wise at the time of the trade you've got a reclamation project (Whitley), a few upside pitchers with control issues (Arrighetti, Ullola), a couple of fastball-changeup college arms they took early last year (Taylor, Knorr), a few lower level power over hit tool outfielders (Cerny, Baez, Gomez) and a potential backend starter whose K-rate declined a bit last year (Murray).

It really feels like there are two spots for Hiura, Frelick, Toro, Turang and Miller. Honestly, I think, assuming everyone is healthy, Frelick gets a spot and the other is between Hiura and Toro.

Good analysis. It feels like, minus any coming waiver claims, the 40-man could start the season at 35.

I've seen trade value lists and I've seen lists of value to a team this year. This list seems to be trying to split the difference and it has led to some real strange results. While I might not put them my list, I wouldn't quibble with Winker or Tellez being put on a list of highest value to the team for this year. Winker has had some great offensive seasons and Tellez seems like the type who has at least one 2018 Jesus Aguilar season in him. That said, neither belong anywhere near a trade value top 10. And similarly, Chourio seems tracking toward a 2024 debut, or at least really late 2023, so he doesn't belong on a list of contributors for this season. Basically you have to really contort and combine criteria to create a list with both Chourio and Winker/Tellez on it. As far as trade value goes, I'd be pretty close to the list SveumRules posted earlier. I might be tempted to swap Frelick and Quero, but that would be more of my own personal opinion rather than what they would bring back in a trade.

Honestly, I put my cut off randomly at 400 AB (I should have mentioned that) so he wasn’t even on my radar.

As someone else noted, era adjustments are a thing. For what it is worth, Sexson’s best offensive season ranks ninth among Brewers primary first basemen in wRC+ behind three Fielder seasons, three Cooper seasons and two Scott seasons. And the guy who is tops on that list for individual seasons other than those four hasn’t even been mentioned. Also, I have good memories of Brock because his best year coincided with my first year as a big baseball fan, but Jaha is number five. I think you can safely slot Overbay ahead of him too.

Also, while his career mostly predates my fandom, I am surprised there hasn’t been a complaint about Cooper not being No. 1 yet.

My biggest memory of Brock was both him and Surhoff falling just short of .300 on the final day of the 1987.

It is interesting that they left him in A ball all season. I feel like if he had been in the Brewers system he would have spent a chunk of time in high-A like the Rodriguez, Cruz and Cornielle group.

Unless there was an injury, it appears as if he did the standard signing a contract that started in 2018, so I think he would have two years left. He would, of course, be rule 5 eligible.

A lot of the guys I would include are probably a bit further down the prospect list. Felix Valerio: Between his youth, past performance and underlying numbers, I have little doubt Valerio will bounce back offensively. He needs to prove, however, that he can handle second base defensively, especially in a post-shift baseball world. Victor Castaneda: The results have been OK, the peripherals middling. I think he gets moved to the pen this year and must show his stuff plays up there. The year five or six guys: There are a lot of plus athletes who are likely to start in high or low A on Damuelle’s list. Joe Gray, Eduardo Garcia, Micah Bello, Eduarqui Fernandez … Time is starting to run low. Cam Devanney: This is based on circumstance. After getting passed up in the Rule 5 draft, Devanney needs to show his 2022 isn’t just a case of success because he was an older prospect repeating AA. I think he makes the bigs at some point this year, but because of his age, he needs to back up his 2022 success more than most of last year’s breakouts.

I hope it isn’t self-indulgent, but I am going to split my reply in two: the guys included and then the guys I might have. Quero: As others have pointed out, the Feliciano comp is flawed. With Feliciano the question was will he develop enough to stick at catcher. With Quero it seems to be will he develop enough to win a gold glove. I can understand the rule 5 reasoning, but given that catchers with offensive upside and big league ready defense is one of the few categories of hitters who routinely get picked, I think he would have to have a disastrous 2023 not to be added. The added pressure will come in later seasons by the early starting of the option clock. Mendez: He spent his 18 year old season entirely in A ball. Chourio might have spoiled us, but that is pretty rare. Does he have to get the ball in the air more? Sure. But he will be given time. Honestly you could include just about any prospect at that level given that reasoning, including Avina, whose K rate is unsustainable. Disagree with the Gasser reasoning (if people realize Ruiz isn’t in the system now, they know why. The forgetfulness won’t strike for a couple of years.) I don’t disagree with Turang, though. He needs to show the long extra base hit drought was the fluke, not the power surge at the end of the season.

Back to Quero, it is tough to find a good comp for him. From 2009 through the present, 12 catchers saw a decent chunk of time in High-A during their age 19 season. Two were not really considered among their organization's top prospects (Santiago Chavez and Francisco Pena), three are currently among their organization's top prospects (Francisco Alvarez, Ivan Herrera and Quero), four either switched positions or were derailed by defense (Feliciano, Jesus Montero, Wil Myers and Tommy Joseph), and two were bat-first prospects who developed enough to stick behind the plate (Gary Sanchez, Keibert Ruiz). Christian Betancourt might be the best comp among the group defensively, but he had maturity questions that you never really hear about Quero. Catchers with plus defense and intangibles have a way of sticking around. It is why Martin Maldonado is still going strong, having played 100 games in each non-pandemic season since leaving the Brewers, despite struggling at times to stay above the Mendoza line and posting a career OPS that I believe is on the wrong side of .650. It is why former Brewers prospect Max McDowell was invited to the Yankees alternate site during 2020 and recently signed as a minor league free agent despite a fairly poor offensive season at AA last year. If he develops at all offensively, and the scouting reports on his defense and intangibles are accurate, it is tough to see him not having a decent length big league career.

In a roundabout way, I got a wedding present from Brian Shouse. My wife’s maid of honor’s mom taught his son or daughter while he was with the Brewers. Knowing I was a Brewers fan, she asked him if he had any souvenirs that she could give me. I think he cleaned out the leftover giveaways because her parents gave us everything from a Brewers blanket to a set of nesting dolls of the infielders. I always cheered a little harder for Shouse after that.

True, I just used him as the biggest name in that class. Substitute Mendez, Guilarte, Areinamo, Barrios, Castillo or Aquino if you wish.

After next year it gets a bit better at least (Quero is eligible next year, but Chourio isn’t until two after that).

Of the post-Lucroy failed catching prospects, Feliciano is the only one who doesn’t fall into one of two categories: guys whose bats failed to progress or guys no one expected to stick at catcher. The former happens at every position. The latter is a bit of hubris from an organization proud of its ability to mold catchers defensively. Feliciano was really the first one who wasn’t looked at as an extreme long shot to stick at catcher who didn’t develop defensively. The case against having Quero higher I guess might be that because catchers have so much to focus on, their bats might develop less often. On the other hand, if the reports on Quero’s defense and intangibles are accurate, even a little improvement offensively probably puts him in the Maldonado level. Regardless, however, what happened with Feliciano has no bearing on my opinion on Quero, both because he is an outlier and because Feliciano’s problem isn’t an issue for Quero.

Given the amount of time they have been in the system, I wonder if Vassalotti, Garabitos or Morales start in AA.

I’d kind of split the difference. Sign Myers or someone similar. If Mitchell and Frelick are playing well, he platoons with Tellez and Winker. If not, and Wiemer isn’t ready, he is a decent backup plan. I would start the two of them to start the season, though. I think there is a decent chance that Turang starts the season in AAA with Toro getting first crack at third. Assuming he is playing well, though, he would be my first call up from AAA.

Since everyone is tossing out their pick for next Suter, I will say Adam Seminaris.

It is so nice over the last few years that the Brewers have gotten to the point where discussing DSL pitchers doesn't feel like a waste of time. Possibly none of them are listed here depending on where Briceno and Wagoner start out, but for a second year in a row I am going to find the pitching results from Carolina fascinating. Between rounds 5 and 11 last year the Brewers drafted a D-II pitcher, a four-year JUCO pitcher, a pitcher who missed a lot of time with injuries and a pitcher who was academically ineligible in his draft year. Toss in the former DSL guys who were called up toward the end of last season (Vallecillo, Herrera and Gonzalez); if healthy, a guy who would have been called up last year (Aquino) and a guy who was in 2021 (Brailin Rodriguez); and a potential holdover or two from last season and you have an interesting but potentially erratic collection, not even considering the highest upside arm in the system. If three of those guys could emerge the way Rodriguez, Cruz and Cornielle did last season along with the hoped-for progress from Misiorowski, it would really help balance a hitter-heavy system.

Maybe I am wrong, but isn’t range factor one of the defensive stats that they used to say only stabilized after a couple of seasons’ worth of data?