CheeseheadInQC

It wouldn’t shock me if McGinn had legitimate comments from a source but that they then got filtered through his own impressions. It wouldn’t be a surprise if there was some level of frustration with having to go through this all very publicly again with no idea how the biggest piece of their offseason puzzle is going to go. I could also see there being some in the building who think it is in the team’s best interest to go with Love. It feels more likely statements like that got taken to their illogical conclusion.

Realistically the simplest path to Gasser to make the roster is for one more long term injury to one of the top five and then Gasser being so lights out this spring that he not only clearly separates himself from Junk … and Small … and Wilson … and Miller, but Houser as well. That is a tall ask from someone with minimal AAA time in an organization not known for rushing pitching prospects into the rotation.

As tempting as it is to simply respond with the rabies headline clip from Vicar of Dibley (my wife's an Anglophile so these are my points of reference), I guess it isn't entirely outside the realm of possibility. I think it would, however, require a specific set of circumstances. First, there would have to be several long term injuries. I can't see them adding him to the 40-man for a spot start or two. Second, he would have to be strong enough this spring to be clearly ahead of all of the options who are on the 40-man. It isn't impossible, but I'd have a tough time going over 5% for the chance and definitely wouldn't go into double digits.

With pitchers and catchers reporting, I thought I would celebrate by delving into one of my favorite topics, a random assemblage of minor league statistics. There were a lot to choose from, ranging from Darrien Miller's caught stealing percentage to a bunch of guys' strikeout rates, but here are three others to keep your eye on. 1. Ground ball rate, Jadher Areinamo If you were to construct batted ball stats for a hitter without a ton of power, there is a decent chance that they would look similar to Areinamo's in the complex league last season. He was fifth in the ACL in line drive rate (25%) and split the others relatively evenly between ground balls (40%) and fly balls (35%). He hit the ball to all fields. He had the fourth lowest swinging strike rate in the ACL. He walked as often as he struck out. And he hit doubles, lots of doubles. Almost 10% of his plate appearances ended up in extra base hits. After his promotion to Carolina, many of those traits remained. He still hit a healthy number of line drives. His swinging strike rate was still down in Hendry Mendez territory. Two things did change, though. His ground ball rate jumped more than 15% and the doubles power disappeared. You might be wondering why I didn't pick one of the obvious choices for this stat: Garrett Mitchell, Hendry Mendez or, as Smichaelis9 mentioned in his top prospect list, Daniel Guilarte. The reason is because while the stats might measure success, each of those would likely require swing changes, so the changes could be seen before the results are (if Mendez could duplicate Areinamo's line drive and fly ball rates from the ACL he is probably a top 100 prospect). With Areinamo, it is not about the swing. The Complex League stats proved that. It is about continuing to make quality contact as he faces increasingly good pitching moving up the ladder. Restoring his ACL batted ball splits would be a good way putting him on track to maximize his potential. 2. Walk rate, Jeferson Quero There seems to be one thing that is keeping some of the national prospect evaluators from being as high on Quero as some on this site (including obviously me). It is not his defense or intangibles. Those garner universal praise. It isn't the hit tool. He made it up to high-A during his age-19 season without ever topping a 20% strikeout rate at any level. And it isn't his power, which seems more than adequate for the position. No, the question involves Quero's approach at the plate, namely if it is too aggressive. And, to be fair, the 2.4% walk rate after his promotion to high-A seems to bear that out. The thing is, it wasn't always this way. Before getting injured, Quero posted a 14.5% walk rate in the ACL, walking more than he struck out. But each move up the ladder has led to fewer walks. He has enough going for him that he might be able to become a legitimate starting catcher even with a walk rate closer to 5% than 10%. But to be a true impact player at the position rather than just one of the top 30, the walk rate probably needs to start climbing back closer to double digits, especially since, given how scarce .300 hitters are in general these days, he probably doesn't hit .313 in the big leagues like he did in Wisconsin. 3. ISO, Gregory Barrios Remember all of those elements about Areinamo's batted ball stats that I praised earlier? What if I were to tell you that there was another Complex League infielder who in many ways mirrored Areinamo? Balanced LD/GB/FB rates? Check. Uses all fields? Check. Where Areinamo was fourth in the ACL in swinging strike rate, he was sixth. And to top it off, he is already one of the steadiest middle infield defenders in the Brewers' system. He also has yet to get a single point on our most recent prospect poll, and I believe I was highest on him, putting him at No. 38. So why isn't Gregory Barrios getting more prospect love? It comes down to the fact that if you added his ISOs from his first two seasons of pro ball together, you still wouldn't get to .1. Ultimately, he needs to at least develop doubles power to make a mark in a system that is suddenly flush with lower minor league infielders. If he manages to do that, though, it seems possible that he could be one of the bigger risers in the system this season.

Lot of people who are or were in journalism. I spent a decade and a half as a night shift copy editor before deciding I needed normal hours.

Theoretically this might be true, but I think the stateside complex teams also fall under the system player cap, functionally limiting them to two complex league teams.

You might be right on those two (they ended up at the tail end of a tier that started at 40). With Middendorf especially I struggle to rank minor league relievers once you get past the Uribe huge upside types.

Notes: 1. It speaks to the depth of the system that I had to shoe-horn one of my picks for an out-of-nowhere breakout for next season in at No. 50. 2. That being said, if there is another Jadher Areinamo in last year's DSL hitting contingent (low profile signing, strong early stateside results), I'd bet on Baez 3. I am very leery of strikeouts at the lower levels, hence the lower placement of Avina and a few others 4. Valerio is very much the type of hitter I usually rank more highly than others, and I have little doubt the bat will bounce back. The fact that he is one spot below apparently the steadiest fielder of the complex-league contingent should provide a hint to the concerns that led me to drop him. 5. I'm the guy who had Antoine Kelly first on his list at one point last season. I'll probably always have Misiorowski a couple of spots higher than he should be as long as he keeps showing flashes. Here is the list: 1. Jackson Chourio 2. Jeferson Quero 3. Sal Frelick 4. Joey Wiemer 5. Jacob Misiorowski 6. Brice Turang 7. Robert Gasser 8. Garrett Mitchell 9. Tyler Black 10. Eric Brown Jr. 11. Carlos Rodriguez (P) 12. Hendry Mendez 13. Stiven Cruz 14. Jadher Areinamo 15. Luis Lara 16. Abner Uribe 17. Robert Moore 18. Janson Junk 19. Joseph Hernandez 20. Alexander Cornielle 21. Daniel Guilarte 22. Logan Henderson 23. Ethan Small 24. Cam Robinson 25. Cam Devanney 26. Jace Avina 27. Eduardo Garcia 28. Freddy Zamora 29. Hedbert Perez 30. Zavier Warren 31. Blake Perkins 32. Luke Adams 33. Yophery Rodriguez 34. Russell Smith 35. Matthew Wood 36. Gus Varland 37. Kevin Ereu 38. Gregory Barrios 39. Felix Valerio 40. Patricio Aquino 41. Adam Seminaris 42. Carlos Rodriguez (OF) 43. Luis Castillo 44. Victor Castaneda 45. Filippo Di Turi 46. Brandon Knarr 47. Dylan O'Rae 48. Joe Gray 49. Justin Yeager 50. Juan Baez 51. Cameron Wagoner 52. Ryan Middendorf 53. Justin Jarvis 54. Tyson Miller 55. Jhonny Severino 56. Will Rudy 57. Tristen Lutz 58. Tayden Hall 59. Tyler Woessner 60. Daniel Corniel 61. Edwin Jimenez 62. Damien Miller 63. Eduarqui Fernandez 64. Johan Barrios 65. Noah Campbell 66. Yujanyer Herrera 67. Ernesto Martinez 68. Jeison Pena 69. Alexander Vallecillo 70. Lucas Erceg 71. Brailin Rodriguez 72. Clayton Andrews 73. Aidan Maldonado 74. Ben Metzinger 75. Wes Clarke

Unfortunate, but not terribly surprising. The biggest current impact might be on the glut of infielders in the lowers levels.

Cain’s 2018 got overshadowed by Yelich, but Fangraphs ranks it as the second best season by a Brewers center fielder ever, just behind Gomez’s best season and ahead of Yount’s second MVP. It will be interesting to see which direction you go with the fifth spot for right field: skill, excitement or longevity.

As fun as a Scotty Pods’ time with the Brewers was and as poorly as last season went, I still think LoCain belongs on this list. He was the second best player on one of the best teams in franchise history.

Yah, I'd love Hunter Brown, but I'm not holding my breath. In kind of the area that Carpenter was prospect-wise at the time of the trade you've got a reclamation project (Whitley), a few upside pitchers with control issues (Arrighetti, Ullola), a couple of fastball-changeup college arms they took early last year (Taylor, Knorr), a few lower level power over hit tool outfielders (Cerny, Baez, Gomez) and a potential backend starter whose K-rate declined a bit last year (Murray).

It really feels like there are two spots for Hiura, Frelick, Toro, Turang and Miller. Honestly, I think, assuming everyone is healthy, Frelick gets a spot and the other is between Hiura and Toro.

I know reading scouting reports on international signings from MLB pipeline is inevitably going to give you warm, fuzzy feelings on all of these guys, but based on the write-ups I wonder if given how early these deals are often agreed upon, this was the first class under the organization’s increased emphasis on bat-to-ball skills. And while they might not have signed any tall hitters in this year’s class so far, there were at least two 6-2 or taller late signings from last year’s class who will be making their debut next year.

My general guide to positions with these signings (outside of pitcher and catcher). SS: Displays a bare minimum amount of functional athleticism and arm strength. Likely to start on the infield. CF: Displays a bare minimum amount of functional athleticism. Likely to start in the outfield. 2b: Like a shortstop, but without the arm strength. 3b: Likely future first baseman or right fielder. 1b: Already probably 6-5. RF: See 3b LF: Like a right fielder, but without the arm strength. Is this too reductive? Yes. But it also keeps me from being too disappointed when most of them inevitably move down the defensive spectrum.

Good analysis. It feels like, minus any coming waiver claims, the 40-man could start the season at 35.

If it weren’t for the success of the recent years I would take the Brewers’ comments in McCalvy’s article about the pitchers in this class with a grain of salt, but now I am more hopeful that the optimism is genuine.

Maybe it is just some higher floor guys, but it seems like the last few classes the sub-6-foot players are outperforming their bonuses more often than the 6-2-plus guys among the international signings for Milwaukee.

I've seen trade value lists and I've seen lists of value to a team this year. This list seems to be trying to split the difference and it has led to some real strange results. While I might not put them my list, I wouldn't quibble with Winker or Tellez being put on a list of highest value to the team for this year. Winker has had some great offensive seasons and Tellez seems like the type who has at least one 2018 Jesus Aguilar season in him. That said, neither belong anywhere near a trade value top 10. And similarly, Chourio seems tracking toward a 2024 debut, or at least really late 2023, so he doesn't belong on a list of contributors for this season. Basically you have to really contort and combine criteria to create a list with both Chourio and Winker/Tellez on it. As far as trade value goes, I'd be pretty close to the list SveumRules posted earlier. I might be tempted to swap Frelick and Quero, but that would be more of my own personal opinion rather than what they would bring back in a trade.

Honestly, I put my cut off randomly at 400 AB (I should have mentioned that) so he wasn’t even on my radar.

As someone else noted, era adjustments are a thing. For what it is worth, Sexson’s best offensive season ranks ninth among Brewers primary first basemen in wRC+ behind three Fielder seasons, three Cooper seasons and two Scott seasons. And the guy who is tops on that list for individual seasons other than those four hasn’t even been mentioned. Also, I have good memories of Brock because his best year coincided with my first year as a big baseball fan, but Jaha is number five. I think you can safely slot Overbay ahead of him too.

Also, while his career mostly predates my fandom, I am surprised there hasn’t been a complaint about Cooper not being No. 1 yet.

My biggest memory of Brock was both him and Surhoff falling just short of .300 on the final day of the 1987.

You could point to a lot of the pitchers lately (I don't remember hearing much when Cruz signed and Cornielle was even an in-season signing). On the hitting side, I don't think Areinamo or Castillo were among the higher bonuses in their class either.

It is interesting that they left him in A ball all season. I feel like if he had been in the Brewers system he would have spent a chunk of time in high-A like the Rodriguez, Cruz and Cornielle group.