Jopal78
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Everything posted by Jopal78
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Are the Brewers a more talented team with Woodruff than without? Of course. Had Woodruff rejected the QO, were the Brewers likely to be more than the usual bargain hunters in free agency? Most likely not. With Peralta potentially being on the trading block, is it strategically a good thing to have veteran arms on the roster and not rely solely on young unproven pitchers? Of course. Whats not to like then about Woodruff being back with the Brewers in ‘26. -
Astros DFA’d the better of the two Urias brothers. Ramon managed to put up a 2.2 WAR last season and would be a definite utility upgrade over Monasterio (plays 1B, 2B and 3B) Probably won’t make it to the Brewers though on waivers
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Game 10: Packers @ Giants - Sunday, Nov. 16th @ 12:00 PM
Jopal78 replied to HarryDoyle's topic in Other Sports
Wasn’t physicality the knock on Musgrave coming into the draft? Size, speed are terrific, physicality to fight through contact, block and break tackles was lacking. No surprise when he gets to the NFL where every player is physical, when healthy, he has struggled to get on the field as a blocker or pass catcher. i’m sure the Packers thought they could teach some tenacity when he was drafted and it hasn’t worked -
Fixed it for you: Guarantee me that some of the 85 games that Buxton plays in occur in September or the playoffs. If he’s just the annual late-season gut-punch Brewer injury, I don’t need him
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This is the Brewers’ MO the last 6-8 years playing out. They identify and draft/acquire high floor/questionable ceiling players: Collins, Perkins, Frelick. Ortiz, Durbin, Patrick, Myers, etc. However, Durbin, Frelick, Collins, didn’t show a lot of power in the minor leagues so without remodeling their bodies in the gym during the offseason, I wouldn’t expect 10+ homer players to become 20 homerun players, especially when those 3 will all be 26 or older next season. Having gotten his feet wet in ‘25, Durbin may be able to get his BABiP up to league average in ‘26 boosting which theoretically could add 30 points to his OPS. I don’t see a lot of room for realistic improvement for ‘26 on Frelick or Collins’ OBP of .351 and .368 respectively.
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This board sucks now. Lack of interesting discussion, and a bunch of dudes arguing about stupid thumbs down buttons as if it even matters.
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Yes it was the translator making bets with Ohtani’s money. If we want to be cynical how does a translator have access to Ohtani’s bank accounts unless it’s with knowledge and consent? As for Clase and Ortiz. I assume they’re about to get lifetime bans like Pete Rose, Joe Jackson etc.
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If I post the link, you don’t bother to read it claiming you remember it and it didn’t say what I said it did. (Contreras extension talk) This time I post text (recent Forbes sports article) and you criticize its authenticity for not having a link. Ok troll.
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I guess I’m in the minority here, but Buxton has played in 852 of a possible 1518 games since becoming a full time regular (56%). I just don’t see overwhelming interest in a player, no matter how talented, who’s guaranteed to miss time with injuries and has missed over 44% of his team’s games since becoming an opening day regular
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As a Twins fan you’re understandably failing to appreciate the scope of Buxton’s unavailability. He’s racked up 500 PAs or more in a season twice. That certainly with the Twins trying to manage his workload, keep him healthy etc. . Then compare him to Yelich with all his injuries since 2019, yet Yelich has failed to get 600 PAs just twice since then. Then to use your point, if theres one team, such as the Dodgers, who doesn’t mind guaranteeing $45,000,000 for, best case scenario, 1500 at bats over 3 years, what do you think the Twins return is going to be with just the one club being interested? Heck if there’s 2-3 teams interested even. It’s a preposterous notion the Twins would get much beyond salary relief in any Buxton trade. Which is in truth why he would be traded in the first place: a 90 loss team looking to trim payroll while rebuilding.
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It doesn’t matter. Does 9 wins above replacement mean anything when it’s the playoffs and he’s already done for the year with injuries? Or if his team misses the playoffs by a game and Buxton missed 30 games that season. How much is a player worth that you can’t count on to be available? It’s not hard to figure out. WAR is nice for fans and all but I can assure you front offices look at more than salary and WAR in forming their opinions of players. Look, if he’s got a 9 WAR the last 2 years and is on a steal of a contract as you say. Why are the Twins considering moving him? His production and guarantee are not the reason the team sucks. Thus, it has to be his unreliability. Unfortunately, it’s the decades worth of unreliability that’s going make him a No to most of the teams; and when nobody’s interested what does that do to the trade value?
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I think his trade value is probably close to zero. A player that while extremely talented has played in more than 92 games just 3 times in 11 years. That sort of unreliability probably makes him a no for the vast majority of teams right off the bat. Then the notion of giving up premium assets to get a player whose availability is a complete mystery… won’t happen. The truth is Buxton’s more likely to miss 35 games in 2026 with injuries than he is to hit another 35 homers next year. I’m sure if the Twins ate most of his contract they could unload him, but outside of Preller I can’t see a GM taking any sort of gamble on Buxton, especially as he enters his mid 30s.
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No, the point is the KBO is a league with inferior talent to MLB and even the NPB for that matter. Thus the correlation between success in the KBO carrying over to success in the major leagues isn’t great. Even recent reclamations like Fedde had one nice season in ‘24, then was figured out again and ended up getting released by 3 different clubs in ‘25.
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Marte has 10/5 rights, probably not being traded and especially Milwaukee without a sweetener.
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Yes, the Woodruff QO is mostly about getting a comp pick. The rest of the above is just an unrealistic take. Starting pitching is expensive. Scherzer and Verlander at 41 and 42 years old respectively each still made 15 million dollars this past season. From of the rotation starters in today’s game make 28-32+ million dollars a year. 22 million dollars for an oft inured front of the rotation starter still in his prime isn’t actually that outrageous in context. Then Logan Henderson is coming off a forearm strain which usually is the forerunner to a torn elbow ligament. Gasser has not really pitched since his own TJ. Ashby might be as injury prone as Woodruff missing an entire season with a shoulder injury, Then multiple months in both ‘24 and ‘25 with additional injuries. The Brewers would truly be operating without a safety net counting on any of those players to make 25+ starts for them in ‘26.
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First of all, Ponce sucked in the majors (2.1 HR/9and 11H/9) in a small sample, but such is life for pitchers who spend six years in the minors before their debut. Ponce didn’t really light it up in Japan either: his hits allowed, walks and strikeout ratios remained the same but he kept the ball in the ballpark more, which isn’t surprising in the NPB where homeruns are more rare than in MLB. Then in the inferior KBO his hits allowed went down and strikeouts went up while other ratios remained similar. Sure looks like another Josh Lindblom to me: a stiff who had a nice year against lower quality hitters than he’d see in the majors. I sure hope the Brewers learned their lesson with Lindblom and stay well away from Korean league reclamation projects.
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Being a crapshoot depends on the team doing the drafting. If there’s one organization that excels at identifying amateurs who may have a floor as being an average major leaguer it’s the Brewers. Moreover, the Brewers have a decent track record of finding players in the 2nd round or later: Misiorowski, Woodruff, Burnes, Williams, Tyrone Taylor etc. Yes, typically those late comp picks don’t amount to much but the Brewers are one of the few teams that have shown proficiency in finding players in those areas of the draft
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I think you’re hitting the point. To keep the pipeline of talent flowing to the major league roster in Milwaukee you don’t let star players walk away for nothing; you either trade them for young talent or offer them the QO to get the extra pick in the first part of the draft if they leave. Just like trading a player away for young players, there’s risk that those young players won’t turn out. There’s a risk that Woodruff accepts the QO. It’s hard to handicap what will happen. Woodruff could accept the QO and try free agency again in 2026, or he could play it safe and take a multiyear deal somewhere else likely for less AAV but larger overall guarantee than 22 million.
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My point isn’t about Hoskins, it is what the going rate for free agents is. Spend a minute looking around at what even mediocre free agents with warts are getting. I think you will find, any player who plugs in as an everyday player is close to $15-18 million: Hoskins, Joc Pederson, Profar etc. Career year by Grisham in ‘25, yeah maybe. He wouldn’t be the first player to cash in after a career year. For sure there will be teams looking for an everyday center fielder or to add power and speed to their lineup and he’s coming off a big time season. So you might think he’s trash but the demand will likely be there .
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Sure he hit .235 but his OBP was .348 and his slugging was .464. Away from Yankee Stadium he was a monster in ‘25 .269/.367/.537. Grisham would have lead the Brewers in slugging and homers in 25. He plays CF and won’t be 30 until the 2027 season. Predicting contract length is hard, but Grisham is more than likely closer to 20 million AAV than 15 (Hoskins older and coming off a major injury got 17 mil AAV with the Brewers) as refernced in the above projection .
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Professional sports are exploitative by their nature. Cost controlling players for a certain number of seasons after they turn pro. Forcing amateur talent in the US to be in a draft with slotted values in order to turn pro. Solely in baseball, signing kids from the DR for pennies on the dollar of what they’d earn as a draftee stateside. Early contract extensions where the player is leaving tens if not hundreds of million dollars on the table for more up front.
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I think you need to take Woodruff‘s metrics with a grain of salt. The Brewers nursed him through 2025. Woodruff was babied through the 2025 season receiving a full five days rest between nearly every start, sometimes more. When he was pitching, the Brewers rarely pushed him past 85 pitches. In the 4 starts they did, he had an ERA over 6.00. In the starts where he threw 90 or more pitches he had an era over 9.00. Then, despite being eased back into action with kid gloves he suffered additional injuries in May, and again in September (not to mention getting hit by a line drive on the elbow). People also forget Woodruff missed a huge chunk of the ‘23 season with a different shoulder injury before tearing the capsule and rotator cuff and has made it to 30 starts just once in his career. So one guy gave up too many homers at Wrigley in ‘25, the other’s medical file and durability are huge red flags. But I think you’re right time will tell soon enough.
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The Cubs declined a 3 year/57 million dollar option on Imanaga. Kind of similar pitchers: Woodruff more of a track record, but marginally older and greater history of major injury. my guess would be if the Cubs are unwilling to go 3/57 with Imanaga they probably aren’t many teams that are going to go 3/60 with Woodruff. Perhaps Woodruff‘s availability is a problem for the Brewers. If not, they have nothing to really lose by offering him a one-year at the QO price with the club option for the following year in the same neighborhood with a small buyout attached. Woodruff performs well in 2026 declines the player option he would’ve done better than just the QO and re-enters free agency. If he is injured or pitches poorly they have a bad contract on their books for one season. When 40-year-olds like Verlander and Charlie Morton are getting $15-$16 16 million a year. There’s not a whole lot of downside to keeping quality starting pitcher around if you can.
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Why does it rub you the wrong way? There is a finite amount of resources to be spent on Baseball Operations. $700-$900k saved might not gain them much on the major league roster but it could mean all the difference between signing an international kid they like, and not. Secondly, it’s professional sports; there’s no loyalty either way. Teams don’t pay players more than they have to simply to be nice, and players don’t take less money than they could otherwise earn just to be cordial.
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William Contreras Has "Minor" Surgery On Middle Finger
Jopal78 replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Ok, why would the Brewers declining their half of option bother Contreras a bit? Unless he and his representatives are all nincompoops, they would have known at the time he signed it, that he would unlikely be awarded a salary in excess of 12 million dollars. Thus he’s got nothing to lose and gets an extra $100,000 for an option unlikely to be exercised anyway. The only alternative explanation is he and his agents believed he would likely do better than 12 million for 2026 and he inexplicably signed the club option anyways. That would mean they’re all idiots .
