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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    Look at the symptoms: “my back hurts when throwing”. Real general and non-specific. Those symptoms could be regular soreness, strain, or something else anll together etc. Then, once the season ended who knows if he kept in contact with team doctors on the status of his back. We do know when he reported back pain this spring that wasn’t just usual soreness from ramping up again, they had him get a MRI. Purportedly, stress fractures cannot really be diagnosed absent an MRI and they don’t appear that different on the scan from soft tissue swelling (which would also cause back pain and would be expected in ramping up after a long time off), hence Williams went to a specialist for a 2nd opinion. I don’t know how the Brewers and especially their medical team can be criticized under the circumstances
  2. Jopal78
    It’s also 7 million dollars, which will turn off a lot of teams
  3. Jopal78
    I’d put in a claim on him, but only if he’s got the chops to hack it everyday at 3B. Then Ortiz starts at 2B and can punt two of Miller, Turang and Monasterio to AAA
  4. Jopal78
    …. But I never said “only” so I guess we’re not really in disagreement
  5. Jopal78
    I did say American born players don’t do them “very often”. You cited 15 out of how many pre-arbitration players? Hundreds? More anecdotal than anything, but ok fair point. But why do you assume the Brewers are dumb and haven’t determined which players it makes sense to extend? It seems to me they would not be doing their due diligence if they DIDN’T routinely make those type of overtures to players they like. Therefore, the lack of such extensions being completed, more probably true than not, reflects the overwhelming disinclination of players to do contract extensions where they’re giving up free agency years .
  6. Jopal78
    What’s your point? If Witt holds up his end it will be 377 million across 14 years or roughly 27 million AAV per. Not like he’s taking a discount that is a market rate extension. The two extra years of control the Diamondbacks got on Corbin Carroll are at $28 million average annual value. Another market rate extension. I think listing 12 players as a counter example is statistically insignificant. Buying out arbitration years in exchange for a couple extra years at market rates in the back end is a pretty risky gambit and gives the player really nothing to lose. Look no further than Ashby missed an entire year with a serious shoulder injury, nobody yet knows if he’s going to be effective going forward, and the Brewers would have come out ahead in this instance going, year-to-year with him. Players play for money. If a team wants to pay the going rate for a player, they can sign anybody they want for as long as they want.
  7. Jopal78
    They’ll be alright. The talent level is better than when the rotation was filled with Paul Rigdon, Allen Levrault, Jimmy Haynes and Jamey Wright with pitching prospects Rueben Quevedo and Kyle Peterson knocking on the doors.
  8. Jopal78
    Look around the league at the guarantees players are getting as free agents. You may be able to extend some foreign born pre-arbitration eligible players, but the American born players, and veterans simply don’t do extensions very often anymore unless they’re at “market rate” prices.
  9. Jopal78
    No, Yelich was already under contract through ‘21 with a club option for ‘22. The way he played in ‘20-‘22 along with the injuries, he would not have done better as a free agent. Plus, his AAV at the time he signed his extension in ‘20 (27 mil/season) placed him amongst the highest paid position players. In the hypothetical world of internet arguing had he become a free agent after the ‘20 season he probably would’ve shot the moon. Same deal with Braun, his second extension with Milwaukee paid him 21 million AAV beginning in ‘15 which put him in the top 20 in salary. Ball players are paid to perform, most have careers lasting less than 10 years, and have the right to sell themselves to the highest bidder. With those circumstances it’s is going to be extremely rare when a player does anything but take the largest pay check. Counsell was a ball player too, and was a union rep to IIRC. Those threads run even stronger through him, so it should not be a surprise he took the largest paycheck, then throws some PR spin to not seem like someone who doesn’t care where he plies his trade as long as the dollars are right.
  10. Jopal78
    Oh, so the world of speculation then. Like I said, journalists like to throw other people’s money around but it sure seems Bellinger‘s injury history and metrics from ‘23 probably made a top free agent contract a pipe dream. Nonetheless , Boras got him an AAV of $30 million in ‘24 which places him in the top 25 or so of highest paid players by AAV, and if he plays well and stays healthy he can be a free agent again next winter. If he turns into a pumpkin in ‘24 he still gets another 30 million in ‘25. Good deal for Bellinger
  11. Jopal78
    Bellinger hit 111 homeruns, was a two time all star, won a gold glove and was an MVP before he turned 24. What incentive was there for him to take a long term deal, he looked like a Hall of Fame player his first three years? I doubt many players, “play it safe” and take an extension because they’re afraid of getting hurt, or don’t believe they can keep it up. Bellinger was clearly betting on himself and he rolled snake eyes. I’m not so sure what Boras has to do with that. With his injury history and unflattering metrics in 2023 the journalists who predicted a 200 million dollar contract got it wrong, to the Cubs’ delight.
  12. Jopal78
    Hitting is what got him to the majors, I don’t think playing a different spot in the field is going to change his approach at the plate or his swing, etc.
  13. Jopal78
    The buyout on mutual options are nothing more than a tool to spread a guarantee out over multiple seasons. If Woodruff declines his half of the mutual option he gets $10 million from the Brewers and becomes a free agent. if he accepts his half, and the Brewers decline theirs he gets the 10 mil and is a free agent.
  14. Jopal78
    Aramis Ramirez’s 4th season with the Brewers was a mutual option which both sides exercised.
  15. Jopal78
    The Brewers have Austin Nola on a NRI too,
  16. Jopal78
    White Sox NRI
  17. Jopal78
    You have it backwards. They kept Jimmy Nelson for all of ‘18 when he was rehabbing and then all of ‘19 when he was injured/ineffective/rehabbing, then cut bait. Knebel missed all of 2019 with Tommy John. In ‘20 Knebel pitched 15 of the 60 games in Covid Ball and was traded to LA after stinking it up. Then, he missed three 3+ months with the Dodgers after suffering another injury. If anything, the past it shows the Brewers are patient with their premium arms and have generally known when to cut them loose.
  18. Jopal78
    That’s the thing, nobody knows. but a career WHIP of 1.04 gives a lot of room for his performance to backslide
  19. Jopal78
    I don’t know what you want me to tell you. Look at the comps, he was amongst the best in the game when healthy. Then look at the trash that trots out there for most teams in that 4 spot: Drew Smyly, Jameson Taillon, Stephen Matz, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, etc etc. I think you either under appreciate how good Woodruff is or don’t realize the crap that 25+ teams fill the back half of their rotation with.
  20. Jopal78
    Sure, and Woodruff healthy was a #1, multi-year All Star who got Cy Young votes. If he comes back 50% of what he was that probably still makes him a #3-#4. For sure, the Brewers are taking a gamble, and they even got burned the last time when they paid Jimmy Nelson for two years after he ostensibly suffered a career ending injury. BUT since the new CBA even bad pitchers like Jack Flaherty are getting $15 million per season now, so there isn’t a whole lot of downside in rolling the bones on Woodruff
  21. Jopal78
    I would say this is “his shot”. He was DFA’d and nobody wanted him, the Brewers couldn’t unload him at the deadline in ‘23 for anything, he couldn’t get a major league guarantee for ‘24, and had to wait until ST started to sign a minor league deal, where a rebuilding club is hoping to buck the odds and catch lightning in a bottle
  22. Jopal78
    For what it’s worth, here’s Keith Law’s take on Robert Gasser, might be time to tap the brakes on his ‘24 potential in the rotation unless they let him learn at the MLB level. Gasser had a rough start to 2023, his first full year in the Brewers’ organization after they acquired him in the Josh Hader trade, but he came on strong in the second half and looks once again like a solid fourth starter. He dominates lefties but continues to have a platoon split, with all 12 homers he allowed last year coming to right-handed batters. He has an average or even above-average changeup, but he doesn’t use it enough, preferring his cutter in those situations even though that pitch only seems to get chase swing rather than swings in the zone. His fastball has average velocity with good arm-side run and his sweeper actually sweeps, hard and down away from lefties, generating a lot of swings right over the top. He does have to change his pitching plan against righties to get to that starter ceiling.
  23. Jopal78
    I don’t think the league is tough on pitchers, rather the pitchers in AAA are nearly all depth/organization soldier type players instead of “prospects”. There may be a point with Gasser too. None of Woodruff, Burnes or Peralta pitched more than 78 innings at AAA before debuting in the majors. Zach Davies pitched 128 AAA innings before seeing the majors. Gasser is already at 161 innings and that is even when the major league club was turning to Julio Teheran, Rea, etc for starts
  24. Jopal78
    It’s the Brewers; if he makes the team for Opening Day, they’ll break Gasser in as a spot starter/ multi-inning reliever this year, and have him move to the rotation full time in ‘25. That’s how they managed the early years of Peralta, Burnes, Ashby, Woodruff. If he doesn’t make the team, it can only mean the Brewers have 6-7 guys they like more for the rotation/multi-inning reliever which would be a good thing .
  25. Jopal78
    Once you realize 97% of pro baseball players (and their agents) do not care where they ply their trade, as long as the money is right, none of this matters. Fans might be dumb and refuse to believe, but every MLB player who stacks success at a young age like Hader, likely has the date they can file for free agency circled on their calendar. Obviously the one exception is some Latin players who signed as teenagers for Pennies on the dollar compared to what top draft picks born in America get. The simple truth is Hader plays a game for money, and his career as a player will most assuredly be over in ten years or less. He’d be foolish to not try to secure as much guaranteed money as he can while he has incredible earning capacity.
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