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Jopal78

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Everything posted by Jopal78

  1. Jopal78
    The longer Ha Seong Kim remains unsigned the more likely I think he winds up with the Brewers. Too many traits the Brewers like to ignore: defensive skill, versatility, good speed. Plus his OPS last year outside of Petco was .750 and career it is .725, and not quite 30 yet. Short term fix at SS for 2025, they just have to wait him out for the right price.
  2. Jopal78
    Not surprising at all, Montas and Severino have been able to pitch effectively after suffering significant arm injuries. Houser has missed time with multiple elbow injuries since June of 2022, a time period which coincides with his production falling off. He’s on an MiLB deal because of those reliability issues.
  3. Jopal78
    Colin Rea illustrates how far the Brewers have come as an organization in raising their talent floor. Since returning from Japan, Rea had a 1.23 WHIP, a 3:1 K:BB ratio for the Brewers (49 starts/58 appearances), and in their analysis they believe they have enough starting pitching depth to make it worthwhile to let Rea go and reallocate his salary for 2025. 15 years ago those stats would have led the team and he’d probably be pitching at or near the top of the Brewer rotation.
  4. Jopal78
    I meant exactly what I said, Raleigh has more homers and RBI but Contreras has him beat in very thing else in “traditional counting stats”. Maybe the panel of arbitrators are all sabrematicians, but more likely they’re probably all just lawyers. None of this is rocket science and there’s no “pressuring players” to go to hearing etc. Contreras wants to make as much money as possible- that is after all the goal. I’m sure his representation did an analysis and opined he has a good shot at winning, so he decided to go to hearing.
  5. Jopal78
    Contreras knows what he’s doing. He has the better “traditional” stats than Cal Raleigh (avg. OBP, slg%, 2B, 3B, SB), and William is a multiple winner of the Silver slugger and two time All Star. He’s got a solid chance at getting his number and surely knows if he gets it his number this year his future earnings will exponentially increase the next two years. While it’s only a million dollars difference this year it likely means millions in career earnings so I’m sure he’ll also be disappointed if he loses.
  6. Jopal78
    Why would the Brewers clear the decks for Tyler Black anyways? He was outhit in AAA by several journeyman minor leaguers. I get it he’s a bonus baby and they have some cash invested, but nothing about Black screams difference maker. Bauer isn’t anything either but had a nice year as a pinch hitter for the Brewers last season.
  7. Jopal78
    That doesn’t happen either because agents take a percentage. Imagine if an Agent attempted to “push” or pressure a player, and got fired in the process;, they’d have invested all the time and effort only to get cut out of most of their fee.
  8. Jopal78
    Williams will probably get killed with all the hits he takes, but man it’s never over when he has the ball in his hand
  9. Jopal78
    Who wouldn’t trade Love straight up for Williams?
  10. Jopal78
    I wouldn’t imagine their thinking is different than any other year. They still have many of core group of players at the major league level who have won 360+ games over the last four years, so as usual they will go bargain shopping in late January and early February for some free agents to supplement the core group then head to camp figuring to compete for the NL Central title yet again.
  11. Jopal78
    You really think the Union pushes players to sign contracts where they don’t want to sign just for the sake of comps/benchmarks for the next player to hit free agency? Egads. Players almost universally go where the money is; because that’s what’s best for their livelihood. For example, Burnes’ AAV for the next two years places him 7th highest all time amongst pitchers, and if all goes right he gets to opt out in 2 years and try his luck again at even more money. Its nice for him he signed with the team local to where he makes his home, but really if another team would have offered better terms I’m sure it makes no difference to him where he is plying his trade.
  12. Jopal78
    There are way more rams than the Yankees who own their own TV Network which broadcasts their games: Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners, Mets and Red Sox. Some others teams have partial ownership interest in the network that carries their games. The Brewers are in the worst media market, hemmed in to the northwest by the Twins, the South west by the Cardinals, the East by the Tigers and the South by the Cubs and Sox. When video broadcast revenue is king, they have nowhere to really expand their local audience and can only try to turn out more viewers in a tiny geographic area
  13. Jopal78
    If I recall the strike in 1994 was over a salary cap. At that time the players would have agreed to a cap as long as the owners also agreed to a floor. Now, I don’t think the players will agree to a cap of any sort. Plus, there’s no reason for the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets etc. to share their local revenue. It’s their competitive advantage. Heck, the Dodgers probably cannot share their local revenue because of all the deferred money they’ve agreed to pay to Ohtani and others. If the Big Market Teams’ goal is to win a championship, sharing local revenue only makes that goal more difficult to attain, so it won’t ever happen.
  14. Jopal78
    It’s nice they made some snacks cheaper, but don’t be fooled that it’s some magnanimous overture; the high profit margin items (alcohol) are still full price and even at $2.00 they’re probably still making 100% profit on hot dogs and pop corn.
  15. Jopal78
    It has less to do with cash than playing time. Ian Happ and Crow-Armstrong are locked into LF and CF. Michael Busch is going to play everyday at 1B. When the Cubs traded for Tucker it meant the end of Bellinger (and possibly Seiya Suzuki) in Chicago. Given his anticipated production there was no reason to pay Bellinger nearly 60 million dollars the next two years to come off the bench and DH. What is interesting is if the Cubs had simply placed Bellinger on waivers would he have been claimed? Seems to me the Cubs kicked in cash to simply get a player in return: one who was a minor league free agent a year ago at this time.
  16. Jopal78
    Got any evidence of that? Sure it’s a huge media market in Chicago but here’s the 3 largest contracts ever handed out by the Ricketts family: Jason Heyward 8 yrs/184 million dollars, Dansby Swanson 7 yrs/177 million, Jon Lester 6 yrs/155 million. Never say never, but based on historical evidence It seems pretty unlikely the Cubs owners will suddenly authorize a contract for 10+ years and 350 + million dollars. In fact, they didn’t extend any of their World Series heroes over fewer dollars than that. Then there’s the question if that would even be an enticement for a top 10 hitter in baseball to sign an extension let alone forgo free agency. Tucker is a great player, but until proven otherwise he’s a one year rental on a 83 win team.
  17. Jopal78
    It doesn’t happen all the time. Because of the difficulty seeing eye to eye on what’s a fair offer. I’m sure Tucker will say somewhere around what Ohtani and Soto are being paid; the Cubs will say something less than that. Then he will file for free agency and see who will pay him the most. in today’s game, Tucker would be crazy to not explore free agency. Secondly, the Cubs now have five starting outfielders (Crow, Happ, Tucker, Bellinger and Suzuki) and will get low balled by everyone when they try to deal Suzuki and/or Bellinger. This is because there isn’t enough playing time to go around, and Suzuki already has his agent grumbling that he wouldn’t have signed in Chicago if he knew they were going to DH him. Bellinger while not a bad player is guaranteed nearly 60 million dollars for the next 2 years. I suspect they’ll end up giving them both away: Suzuki because teams will know he doesn’t want to be there and Bellinger simply to move his contract and overall talent wise Tucker = Paredes, Bellinger and Suzuki
  18. Jopal78
    I think it shows what the league was willing to offer for 60+ innings of Devin Williams. The Brewers got a lefty starter who strikes out a batter and inning and generally keeps the ball in the park, they got a minor leaguer who the Yankees placed on their 40 man roster but wasn’t in their immediate future plans, and the Brewers got the all important cash. This trade likely doesn’t make the Brewers significantly better in the future but importantly reallocates assets by filling the rotation and dealing from an area of surplus, One other thing to remember is teams can always trade starting pitchers at the deadline and the Brewers now have 3 going into 2025 who will be on expiring contracts. If Milwaukee isn’t a contender in 2025 they are well positioned to get a talent infusion from shipping out veterans
  19. Jopal78
    Probably more of a question of who is more likely to help the big league team in 2025. Thomas already has 400+ innings at AAA. A guy they can theoretically use in the Bryce Wilson role.
  20. Jopal78
    You could be right on the WAR, I doubt it because unless Sanchez is putting up a .500 slugging percentage like his extended hot streak in San Diego in ‘23, he’s been a pretty poor hitter for years. But my point is; Gary Sanchez is not even a second tier free agent and he’s making 8.5 million dollars. To the Brewers it really never mattered what the ceiling is for free agents because they don’t shop there; but when Sanchez is helping push up the floor on what it costs to sign veteran free agents, it’s not a good sign for the smaller market clubs .
  21. Jopal78
    1 year 8.5 million. Now there is the real reason to be upset with celery in major-league baseball today. Sanchez made 7 million with Milwaukee, was slight above replacement level and gets a raise to 8.5 million. When replacement level veteran free agents bench player are getting 8.5 million a year, the margin of error for teams like the Brewers developing their own talent becomes almost non-existent.
  22. Jopal78
    Jim Bowden just suggested a trade of Devin Williams for Gavin Lux and Just Wrobleski. I’d do that trade in a second.
  23. Jopal78
    First of all, MLB as an entity wants all teams to have state of the art stadiums (even in Milwaukee) , that’s certainly not “pushing them to leave”. The approved public funding for their stadium in Las Vegas is 380 some million dollars. While Fisher has committed to pay the rest, there is some question if he and his family “are good for it”. Even in the articles you cited it notes Fisher is seeking to have his club valued at 2 billion dollars, then sell a minority stake for $500 million to get his share of the money together. That’s a lot of leg work to do with no guarantees, and why ground hasn’t broken yet and the clock already ticking on opening day 2028.
  24. Jopal78
    Do you make this stuff up? MLB didn’t push them out of Oakland, the A’s sought to relocate after reaching an impasse over who was going to pay for a new stadium in Oakland. They seemingly have the same issue already in Las Vegas over who is going to pay for what percentage of their new stadium, which is why ground has not yet been broken. Third, even assuming MLB would want to contract a team and charter member of the AL; major league baseball clubs are worth close to a billion dollars or more. Where would MLB come up with a billion dollars in cash to pay off Fisher if they were going to dissolve his team? Or do you think he and his lawyers walk away from a billion dollars?
  25. Jopal78
    They’re never going to get to Vegas. I do not think the money will even out and they’re already sticking millions of their own money into upgrading a “temporary” home field in Sacramento. (luxury boxes, premium bars, club houses). If no tax payers will agree to build them a stadium or pay for most of one; it seems most likely they’ll simply stay in Sacramento and continue to upgrade the stadium piecemeal.
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