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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    There were bounty's by collector's for over a quarter mill. My guess is that it goes for over 1/2 million maybe a million at auction. There has been a ton of press around this card in the card collecting hobby so auction is the smart move, unless you live in Pittsburg and can actually go to the games.
  2. jay87shot
    I think the 29 m is probably on line with what I thought he would get 1 was thinking 1/10-12 with like a 15 million player option that turns into a 20 milllion team option if the player declines his option. So 13 with a 16 option isn't to far off, I am surprised it is the Rays. Good for them, I think the Rays are probably square the team I root for most after the Brewers just to beat the Yankees and Red Sox.
  3. jay87shot
    I mean as trade pieces they don't really have any major value. I like AJ Green a lot as well but I doubt any team is going to have him valued similarly to a 1st round pick. On top of that, Green is already 25 which by nba standards really isn't young. Rollins, Johnson, and Smith all have decent potential as well but again value wise those guys likely don't have more value than a 2nd round pick. My general point is that to truely improve this team we likely need to give up that 2031 1st which is scary for me. I really worry that this team is going to turn into a dumpster fire for like 10 years after Giannis leaves.
  4. jay87shot
    I don't think Jimmy, Lavine, or Beal really do anything for this team especially if we have to give up Portis and Middleton. I would not give up that 2031 pick, this team is getting old fast and has no young assets. Today I looked at the rising stars roster and couldn't remember the last time we had someone in that game, the answer is Jabari Parker in 2016. We need to stay the course and get a younger team to support Giannis better with some money freeing up this offseason.
  5. jay87shot
    For me, I just want to see the idea that there is consistent spending that shows Attenasio is making a huge profit. I worry that in the past couple years there have been things like the 30 million dollar payment when the mlb sold some tv thing to Disney and it didn't seem like we spent that money on the team (maybe Hoskins but then we traded Burnes). I couple years ago we had an opening day payroll of 130+ and we have gone down to the point of around 110 currently this year. With two sold years making the playoff I don't feel like salary should go down that much even with the broadcasting uncertainties. I feel like anyone connected enough to the past knows that this market won't support a top 15 payroll long term but there really shouldn't be as much up and down considering the consistent solid play and consistently good fan attendance (top 16 in league every year since 2007)
  6. jay87shot
    Agree, if Black doesn't look better defensively at 1B I would much rather have EMJ or Boeve get a shot at that 1B platoon roster spot over Bauers. What do we think the chances of Yoho making opening day are? At this point I would have thought we would have traded 1 of Payamps/Peguero to create an easier path for Yoho or Uribe. However by adding the likes of Thomas, Wolfram, Elvin Rodriguez, Anderson, and Anderson I would guess we would hold of on Yoho to the bigs until there are some injuries and 40 man roster spots open up. It does seem like a Brewers move to keep young bullpen arm like Yoho down and extra month to see what someone slightly less deserving has and potentially get an extra year of control on Yoho. Not related but does anyone know if by keeping Hudson in AAA the last month or so last year we gain an extra year of control on him?
  7. jay87shot
    The Padres seem pretty intent on cutting payroll in the form of Luis Arraez, Dylan Cease, or Michael King. I could see anyone of those players being of extreme interest to us if we can extend the payroll a bit. King makes 8 million, Arraez 14, Cease 13.75 I do think that it would be almost a guarentee that King and Cease would bring back comp. pick next year, Arreaz could potentially but unlikely. My guess is Cease would cost at least what we gave up for Burnes which is probably to much for my liking, King would probably be very slightly less because his history isn't as long but he every bit as good as Cease in my opinion and Arreaz probably wouldn't cost anything major but maybe a couple ancillary pieces. Arraez could platoon 1B, some 2B (or everyday if you like Turang at SS/Ortiz 3B) and DH, King or Cease would give us a proven consistent top of the rotation arm. Arraez for Payamps and low level prospect (ie Stiven Cruz) King for Peguero, Henderson, Black or Boeve Cease for Peguero, Civale/Cortes, Henderson/Boeve/Black, Juan Baez I would be hesitant to give up a top 100 prospect either starter but acknowledge that in all likelihood Pratt, Misi, or Quero likely may need to be switched in for on of the starters.
  8. jay87shot
    I would take a risk on Dustin May, I think he has more upside than someone like DL Hall and with 1 year left on his deal he probably wouldn't cost much more than a lotto style prospect. May had/has a great arm with a solid mix but has only thrown 101 in the past 4 seasons. He would make a nice multi inning reliever who we could protect his arm and if he can stay healthy be a high potential starter by the end of the year.
  9. jay87shot
    The Black part about starting over Hoskins is interesting and probably true if Hoskins hits .214 again. I like the idea of a L/R 1B platoon and maybe sneak Black in some time in the OF (essentially the Bauers role last year) it shouldn't take to long to see if Black is the 1B of the future (defensively at least). If not hopefully EMJ or Boeve can be ready and I would make Black a full time OF. I have always been on the let Misi start wagon, but looking at some stats that is a bit more iffy than what I have always felt. What would be a manageable bb rate for Misi to shed the future reliever moniker. In 97 innings he had 60 bb (5.5 bb/9), Luis Gil lead the league with 77 bb in just over 150 innings (4.6 bb/9). Misi would be over 90 with a similar workload, That seems like a pretty big gap to close. Really it seemed last year like he was ok with command except for 3-4 bad outing but I guess he did have enough 5 inning 3 bb games that don't seem bad but aren't very good.
  10. jay87shot
    Agree 100% everyone has bust potential. Adams for me actually has more upside because I think that he can be a better hitter for average than he has shown. His frames and some massive homers would suggest there is 30 HR potential. On top of that I think he likely can be a plus defense 1B if fully moved, probably slightly below average 3B or if moved to corner OF. Sure the bust potential of him not hitting is real but he does have massive upside if everything comes together.
  11. jay87shot
    Payne's swing and atletism remind me of Carl Crawford alot. If he can make contact enough (not to worried about him adding muscle to his frame) there is probably some better power potential as well.
  12. jay87shot
    In today's world, if the agent says it I am taking it as the players statement. I get agents usually only talk to get more money but this is a situation those theatrics don't have a place since Sasaki makes the same regardless of what team he picked, unless there was a lot of money going under the table.
  13. jay87shot
    What are reasonable expectations for Made and Pena or any other DSL standouts (Anderson, Ortuna, Quintana) for next year? It seems like everyone is going crazy with Made right now with Chourio comps.. Luis Lara hit .286/.373/.356 30 sb in 2023, I think that would be a solid goal for Pena and Made. Hopefully a little more power. Yophery did fine last year and I would be ok with that from either of them. I just feel like the Made rocket ship is getting unrealistic with him jumping so high only playing in the Dominican, it seems like if he doesn't hit .300 with 20 bombs the season will be a disappointment. If Anderson and Ortuna (and others)can follow Di Turro and get to A ball after 20 games or so in rookie ball that would be nice, hopefully play a little better than Flippipo did after the promotion.
  14. jay87shot
    I am a little peeve that Roki said he wanted to go to a team that develops pitchers and then went to the Dodgers the team that has basically ruined every good pitching prospect with arm surgeries/issues or ineffectiveness since Kershaw (I guess Urias could count maybe). I never believed we had a chance but at least if you say something like you don't want to go to the big markets and be on a team that is a great organization live up to it. I don't mind him wanting to go there if it is for money or because the have Shohei and Yamamoto but just say it.
  15. jay87shot
    I like the idea of naming something important after Uke, however wouldn't it be more on brand to name a bunch of silly stuff after Uke. Maybe make every each vendor (food, clothing) something with Uke or name the parking lot after him. Maybe just name all the food after his famous lines and stories. Maybe change Bernie the Brewer to Bob the Brewer, expand the Chalet by the mug and slide into a Bob Uecker musuem and call the whole thing Bob's clubhouse. I love the idea of naming the whole stadium or field after him but really his influence was everywhere else.
  16. jay87shot
    They are super minor, 1 was that you can get awarded a base if teams lineup wrong (3 IF on one side of second) instead of pitch being a ball can. I think they said this happened twice last year. The second was dealing with the sliding and touching of 2nd (or 3rd) when essentially you have given yourself up and you overrun the base but there is an error. I think the was a free article on espn I read.
  17. jay87shot
    I think Bregman ends up in Detriot on a 1 year with options. I think the Red Sox go with Devers at 3rd and trade for Arenado at the deadline. In that scenario Jace Jung would likely be the blocked player we could go after. Maybe like Luke Adams and Elvis Peguero for Jung.
  18. jay87shot
    I would be crazy surprised to see any type of regression, some of how he hits might depend on where he hits in the order. My guess is that he hits 2, maybe 4, however I could see him leading off a bunch as well if Brice or Sal aren't hot early (especially against lefties like last year). I would like to see him increase his bb's and thus SB attempts. I will go .291/.355/.885 35 2B 31HR 102 RBI 34 SB and borderline gold glove defense in the OF. I will say like 5th in MVP. Those would be crazy numbers for a 21 year old but I don't think they are crazy at all.
  19. jay87shot
    It seems like we wait until late January/Feburary to make moves, I like this strategy because we don't overpay. I would add that we don't really don't need much. The Devin trade makes our pitching staff extemely solid and deep and by the sounds of it Murph is in love with Durbin so that might be the direction at 3B. I would still sign a 3B vet but with 5/6 good but not great options we can wait and save more money. I would guess at Wade Miley signing a minor league deal but there is still a lot of decent rotation arms that maybe come spring training could be had for very cheap. It seems strange that we lose Willy and Devin but I don't think this team is much different/worse off. There is a little more risk with this team and us having a rash of injuries than previous years, but we do have really good depth at most places.
  20. jay87shot
    I have been thinking about Marco Luciano from SF recently. He was a top 20 prospect for a couple of years. He is only 23 and wasn't to bad in AAA last year. The Giants have Willy, Chapman, and Fitzgerald long term with some decent utility pieces. He hasn't been great in the bigs but was rushed a bit the past couple years because of prospect rankings. He could start in AAA if need be but could a high upside get for a relative cheap price.
  21. jay87shot
    I am not one to complain to much about the Brewers payroll usually however our opening day payroll is looking like it is going to be slightly down again after being at a high of 131 m in 2022. I get that we are the smallest market, the tv contract uncertainty, and Attenasio is on of the poorer owners (not really a huge deal) but with the recent success it really seems like we should be able advance payroll and not go backwards. Currently spotrac has us at 99.1 million in payroll allocations with total payroll at 110.9 after deferred money and buyouts. Maybe the team overextended in 2022 but I struggle to see why we can't get to the 135 ish mark like 2022. I try not to complain to much when the Dodgers, Mets, Yanks, among others spend big, but it just makes it hard when the Dodgers utility players Taylor/Edman would be our 3rd highest players. I know owners don't have to disclose finances to the public but does anyone know if they need to share there finances to the league offices?
  22. jay87shot
    I think I would start Misi out as a starter regardless of how he looks in spring training in AAA. If he looks good 10% or less bb rate, I am all for getting him into the bigs rotation earlier rather than later. If his control is a little spotty like last year, 10-13% bb rate, I would like to find him a multi-inning piggyback role especially if we are at a 6 man rotation at that point and decide what his role is next offseason. If control goes backwards, at about mid-way I would transition him to a late-inning relief role and look to get him some big league innings in September to see if he can help potentially in the playoffs. Wonderful write up by the way.
  23. jay87shot
    Mlb.com has Boeve as the #10 3B and Bitonti as the keep an eye on player according to Dykstra. The top 7 are probably top 100 prospect, so he is likely top 125-150. Notably Wilken was 8 and Adams was 10. Likely that means 4 3rd baseman in probably the top 15-20 in the league unless he has Wilken falling alot since the end of the season. Quero was #5 catcher, no one in top 10 for 1B or 2B. Black fell out of top 10 after being #6 at the end of last years 1B prospects.
  24. jay87shot
    I give it 48 hours before they sign Estevez (or maybe Kirby Yates/David Robertson)
  25. jay87shot
    Without deferred money and just averaging out deals I have the Dodgers payroll at over 365 million. By splitting Ohtani's 70 being the rotation and position players, 180.3 on position players, 134.2 rotation (more when the resign Kershaw), 50.8 bullpen. I get that when you do the deferred money and whatever ever it is a lot less. That is also not counting the luxury tax bill and money sent to Japan for Yamamoto, Kim, Sasaki (if you spread out payment as AAV). My guess is that would put them near 500 million in team value.
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