jay87shot

103 wins it is. I am sure I probably would have had 7-8 bullpen WAR as well. I admit I am overly optimistic. I don't think any of my individual hopes/predictions are crazy but I agree they all won't happen. I definitely put i positive spin for everyone with a few injuries sprinkled in. I will say I do think Mitchell, Turang, Contreras, and Chourio do all have 5-6 WAR potential, but I would expect 2-3 of them to be 2-4 WAR instead.

Here are my personal predictions Contreras .295/.375/.850 28 HR 100 rbi WAR 6, Contreras gets more days at DH and stays fresh longer, somewhere around a 5th in MVP. Haase .230/.290/.700 0 War Haase has a couple big moments but is generally just a solid backup Rhys .250/340/.850 15 HR 50 rbi's, 1 WAR Rhys starts of solid, has a huge week in May and then gets hurt for the last 80 games Black .240/360/.725 12 HR 18 SB 2 WAR Black gets lots of run at 1B with the Rhys injury, he is streaky but solid offensively, he ends up playing alot of OF based on later described events. Defense at 1st isn't great but passible, shows more potential in OF. Boeve/EMJ One these guys has a really solid year in the minors and takes over for Black the last month of the year. .250/.320/.700 .5 WAR Turang .270/.350/.675 10 HR 45 SB 5 WAR, Turang improves on consistency, but defensive metrics aren't as great but overall still really good Ortiz .260/.345/.750 17 HR 65 RBI 12 SB 4 WAR, Ortiz misses a month in the middle of the year but has a huge impact and makes up a ton for Adames being gone when healthy. 3rd- Dunn/Durbin/Mone/Scrapheap .200/.275/.550 -.5 WAR 3rd base is a black hole the 1st 3 months of the year and nothing works offensively. Midseason trade Perkins to Rays for Curtis Mead (blocked no PT in Tampa). Mead .260/.310/.675 0.5 WAR Mead brings stability to the position but by no means shows any major potential other than average across the board. Yeli .300/.390/.850 25 HR 20 SB 90 RBI, 4 WAR Yeli picks up where he left of, he is healthy for the 1st 130 games or so and only ends up on the DL for one shorter stretch later in the year. Chourio .290/.350/.875 34 HR 90 RBI 28 SB 6 WAR Chourio takes the next step, he has a weak August but other wise puts up top 5-10 mvp season. Mitchell .250/.333/.800 17 HR 23 SB 4 WAR Mitchell is healthy the 1st half but soon after we trade Perkins to the Rays he gets hurt (not major like 15 games, forcing Yeli to the OF and eventual short DL stint) but comes back the last 3-4 weeks solid. Perkins .230/.315 Perkins doesn't get much PT early in the year and gets traded. Frelick .285/.350/.700 9 HR 38 SB, 5 WAR, Frelick starts of the season hot like Turang last year but cools off the last month or two. Bench=overall the bench is solid defensively but struggles offensively. The Brewers sweep the OF Gold Gloves SP 1) Freddy 3.4 ERA 175 innings 215 k's 4.5 WAR Freddy is an All-Star but 2 bad outings in the 2nd half ruin a potentially great year. 2) Woody 2.8 ERA 120 innings 135 k 3 WAR Woody comes back strong but misses 6 starts in the middle of the year (overused) and Murph babies him down the stretch. 3/4) Cortez/Civale 3.5 era 200 innings 4 WAR One of these pitchers gets hurt early in the year and misses extended time the other is very dependable and solid. 5)Myers 4.25 era 140 innings 1.5 WAR Myers is solid but gets into trouble to often. At one point loses roation spot but gets it back. 6)Patrick/CarRod/Henderson 10 starts 4.5 ERA, Patrick and CarRod each get 3-4 game stretches early (Civale/Cortez) and are ok but not great then Henderson gets a couple starts later in the year 7) Gasser 12 starts 3.75 era Gasser comes back and is solid and ends up being the 6th starter at the end of the year. 8) Misi 10-15 appearances (maybe a couple starts) 30 innings 2.5 era 48 ks/16 bb Misi is solid in AAA and effectively piggybacks with Woody the last 2 months of the year. 9) Ashby 8 starts, 3.00 era, 100 total innings. Ashby is great to start the year as a multi inning reliever, he picks up a few starts but isn't as impressive as when working 2 innings. Pen Megill= 2.5 ERA 28 sv Megill misses a month like last year but otherwise is relatively solid. Hudson/Koenig= 2.2 ERA both pickup where they left of and are solid all year. Hall/Mears= 5 era, both have some good outing early in the year but stuggle come June and get sent down Uribe/Yoho= 3 era, come July both guys are up to the bigs for Hall/Mears and are very good expect each have 1 blowup that balloon the ERA for each. Payamps/Peguero= 3.5 era, both kind of keep on the path from last year, Murph uses Peguero better with less runners on. Thomas/Wolfram/Bauk/Anderson = 4 era to start, 2 era 2nd half Thomas makes opening day but srtuggles (we trade a minor league arm to keep him but he doesn't make an impact) Wolfram/Bauk/Anderson taxi style pitch for a couple months until 1 of them breaks through and becomes a solid reliever ala Koenig last year. We start off hot cool down around game 100 but end strong the last 30 games. 94-68. Cubs 91-71, Reds 86-76, Cards 80-82, Pirates 71-91 (couple big pitching injuries)

If we can get Cartaya without a 40 man roster spot I would be all for this. He would be a great backup at AAA or maybe a lead AA catcher.

If we have any money to spend I would go for Ha-Seong Kim. I like our current rotation especially if we add Miley on the cheap. The bullpen is deep and has lots of high potential options. 3rd (or second) is the only position I worry about and we do some high potential options. It would be nice to add someone with middle of the order potential but that might be out of our price range.

I don't mind this at all, he has some Darren O'Day style funk. A youtube video I watched showed he is all over the rubber and starts with his back to the batter. Molina was lucky to throw 90 so I won't toss and turn and Jay was just a AAAA style guy at best.

What about the idea of sending an OF to the Astros, I feel like the Astros still have a bunch of work to after trading Tucker, signing Walker, and probably losing Bregman. They don't have a great farm but do have some interesting talent. I doubt we could get someone like Framber Valdez but maybe we could jump in as a 3rd team. Here are some ideas 1) Sal/Perk and Boeve for Cam Smith Smith was my favorite draft prospect last year, had a great debut, and doesn't have any ties to the org yet. Add in Peguero or Payamps if not enough 2) Valdez to Toronto, Sal/Perk, 2 toronto prospects to Astros and we get Orelvis Martinez 3) Peguero, Payamps, and Perk/Sal to Houston, Pressley to Dodgers, we get Sheehan/Frasso/Ryan etc (one of the injuried upside Dodgers starters) and Brice Matthews 4) Sal/Perk and Peguero for 3B Zack Denzenzo and UTL Shay Whitcomb

I feel like Sal for Vierling is an overpay, Vierling only has 91 games at 3rd base and overall is below average defensively (close to average last year in 50 games). He isn't a great athlete (decent) and has a 3/1 k to bb, the only thing he has is a bit more power but it's not like he is going to be a middle of the order bat. I know Vierling was worth 3 WAR but I just don't like the fit. On top of that he is a good defense OF and the Tigers probably will have an everyday OF spot for him in the OF. I would say Sal and CarRod for Jace Jung would be more appealing and likely if they sign Bregman. Even then I know they are pretty happy with Vierling, Greene, Meadows in the OF with Kerry Capenter as a 4th when not DHing. My guess is that the Tigers would want more pitching than bats if they get Bregman.

Sorry, I meant there would be a lot of turnover if we traded Yeli and Contreras if Quero had a good year.

https://www.si.com/mlb/brewers/news-feed/brewers-predicted-to-cut-ties-with-188-million-all-star-in-2025-pat3 This article is mostly speculation but does make a good point that Yelich might not be happy primarily DH'ing. We've talked about the possibility of trading Yeli for 2 or 3 years, I don't think it happens this year but I could see next offseason making sense. I foresee him DHing like 75% of the games he is healthy (at least until a Mitchell injury). I believe he has 4/88 without counting differals, if he stays healthy and has the same athleticism he would have decent value next offseason (big if on healthy). Although there could be massive roster turnover next year if we trade Yeli and Quero make a Contreras deal possibly as well.

Vierling has really been an outfielder but wouldnt be the worst add at 3B. Jace Jung would be nice if not to expensive. Does Colt Keith play 1B since they signed Gleybar and Tork mostly DH.

My guess is that we would add someone like Trevor Williams, Spencer Turnbull, or Ryan Yarbourgh later (start of spring training) on a cheaper deal (4-5) if we want some more starter depth.

I feel like the amount given up for Josh Naylor, Luzardo, and now Nate Lowe has been surprisingly low. Naylor has only 1 year of control and isn't good defensively so that one isn't to surprising. For Luzardo Caba and Bryd seems like a light return. Both guys are athletic and Caba was a big int. signing but he basically had a year like Flippo di Turri (more steals). I get that he is a near top 100 prospect but outside of speed meh (same for Bryd). Lowe just went to Washington for Robert Garcia an average lefty reliever (era 2 runs higher than FIP). I would have been all over Lowe for essentially Elvis Peguero. I bet that means there is little chance we can move Rhys.

LBetter revenue sharing would be huge. Maybe instead of just fully equal sharing you say like 50% any money over $45 million from a local deal gets split to the lower markets (or what ever amount makes most sense.. If you went full equal sharing I think what they could do is almost swap the competitive balance rules and the bigger teams get an extra pick for giving up money. I like the idea of putting in a salary floor in, I can't imagine how frustrating it is to be a Pirates, A's, or Ray's fan (among others) who refuse to spend money even when it would seem like they could spend more. I don't care as much about a salary cap if the smaller markets can spend a bit more. If Cohen or the Dodgers want to spend $400 million a year that is fine as long as teams like us can afford to keep more than 1 superstar at a time. Just keep in the extra taxs for going over a soft cap and distribute it out. Change the path to free agency is a good idea. I like 2 years pre-arby (expand perfermance awards), 2 years arby, then a restricted FA with like a 3 year max and nba style max salary (say like 30 million) and then unrestricted free agency, length and money after that. It gets good players more monet quickly but always the smaller teams ways to keep stars

I would just pick have them play one spot and go with it. I think the question is if we give Durbin a shot at 3B or just put him at 2B. There is always the chance that Durbin doesn't make the team out of camp. I kind of just like the idea of Durbin and Frelick (maybe 2 games a week) with Mone or Dunn as utility platooning 3B at least to start and we could move things around if the defense at 3B isn't good or there are injuries.

Trade Perkins to Minny for P Cory Lewis and 2B/SS Payton Earles Lewis is 6'5" with elite spin and extension and Earles is a shorter (yes) left handed version of Caleb Durbin (interesting to read about if you don't know him) Perkins makes way for Black to be 5th OF and 1B. (2B platoon/utility Earles/Durbin 2026 if not sooner) Trade Peguero to Arizona for Comp B pick and lotto prospect Trade Payamps to O's for Comp B pick and lotto prospect I couldn't find a solid OF that will be in AAA that I loved for either but that would be ideal, instead we like draft picks. Sign Jose Iglesias 1/6 (incentives and option) Not discussed much here but he was crazy good last year and seems like he is consistently overlooked. Not sure on how much he makes after that year so it could be a few more million. Sign Gavin Sheets 1/1.5 Sheets kind of becomes the lefty bench and insurance at 1B/DH and deep depth in OF if need be. Good power at DH/1B if Yeli or Mitchell get hurt and things shift around. 6 man rotation for a good portion of the year with Ashby #6 man. C: William Contreras ($7.60M) 1B: Rhys Hoskins ($18.00M) 2B: Turang ($0.8M) 3B: Jose Iglesias ($6M) SS: Ortiz ($0.80M) LF: Jackson Chourio ($4.25M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.80M) RF: Sal Frelick ($0.80M) DH: Christian Yelich ($24.25M) 4th OF: Tyler Black ($0.8M) Utility: Earles/Durbin/Dunn/Mone/Collins ($0.80M) Utility: Gavin Sheets ($1.5M) Backup C: Eric Haase ($1.80M) NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Freddy Peralta ($8.25M) SP2: Aaron Civale ($8.00M) SP3: Tobias Myers ($0.80M) SP4: Brandon Woodruff ($5.00M) SP5: Cortes ($8.3M) RP: Bryan Hudson ($0.8M) RP: Trevor Megill ($2.00M) RP: Nick Mears ($0.90M) RP: Jared Koenig ($0.80M) RP: Yoho ($0.8M) RP: Hall ($0.8M) RP: Bauk/Jay/Thomas/Wolfram/Uribe ($0.8M) RP: Aaron Ashby ($3.45M) NA: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 16.23% under budget

I like the young starters we get but I don't think I would give up Uribe even though Ryan would be a good get (not sure on injury so maybe). Also we probably need someone to platoon with Rhys in your scenerio. Overall sounds ok to me if you could get those teams to part with the young pitching.

I think the price would be to much for 1 year of a guy who just had a negative WAR season with a .277 obp. That being said there is a good chance at a bounce back season and then him declining a QO so I would give 2 decent pieces. My offer would be something like Black and Peguero you could probably convince me to add a lower value starting pitching prospect like Birchard/Cornielle or change Peguero to a prospect around our top 15-25. I would be pretty confident other teams will give up more however Bichette would be the type of guy I would move Turang off of 2B for and the not last year version of him would be perfect for this team. I would want to put him at 2B where I think he could be above average vs. a below aveage defensive SS (I could live with him at SS for a year if it was a non-negotiable.

Great article, I totally forgot how awful the Yankees defense was last year. If our staff can tweak his changup and sweeper there could be a massive improvement.

I would probably put him like 16. He is similar prospect value wise to KC Hunt. Part of me says Baez and Arienamo are better prospects because of age but the part that is winning says he is further along and has been successful so he gets a boost. At 25, not having mlb takes a bunch off his prospect value. He can still be an all-star type player, but for me age puts him out of the top 10 until he makes the big league club and has a few good games.

Probably 1/2 the league could use a durable vet starter. There are still like 10-15 decent free agents though. My guess is that Civale would only be available for the right price, likely after a bunch of the starters sign.

I still have a lot of faith in Black, he struggled at the end of the year but there is still a lot of potential there. I kind of am warming up to the idea of trading Blake Perkins and having Black be our 5th OF and playing some 1B. I know people worry about Mitchell and Yeli getting hurt and then being short in the OF but I would be fine if Hicklen/Collins ends up our 4th OF if that happens. I think most people here are on the outs with Black not being an IF but this situation gives him 1 more shot at 1B and a door to his best defensive position the OF. I don't like the idea of just selling low on him it isn't how our org. works. I think selling high on a guy like Perk makes more sense.

If Sam Darnold signs elsewhere I could see Rodgers going to Minny for 1 cheap year since JJ McCarthey still might not be ready. Cousins might be better for that if the Falcons cut him and he isn't bitter. Maybe a team like Cleveland or Tennessee would take a Rodgers chance if they miss out on the top couple QB's in the draft. I would think Davante would be great in San Fran, I think they trade Deebo and Davante goes back to Cali on a cheap deal.

I would rather have Durbin or Mone/Dunn or Sal instead of a cheap-o signing. For me it kind of come down to how far away we think Boeve is. If we think Boeve could be ready mid-season than I would happily go along with what we have. However if we think Boeve is more of a 1B, then we really don't have an emergency plan if none of those fringe players work out at 3B. If there is money or a move to get a quality vet I would choose that 1st but would be able to live with what we have.

I would give up all those guys and the negative feelings to get Sasaki, Yomamoto cost almost $300 million. To get an ace potentially at 25 with 6 years control is worth so much especially if you consider we would likely get the cheapest 4 years of control and then trade him for like 4-6 huge prospects. I think we can still sign guys to like 10k without counting against the pool so we could keep some and maybe add a few cheap adds. In reality we really don't have to worry about Sasaki coming here unless Nori Aoki is his uncle or something.

I am would happily trade Rhys as long as we can spend that money on a 3B and another 1B option. As long as we don't just trade Rhys and then sign someone to like a 1/3 million and pocket the savings. I would think we either need to take a bad contract back or eat 6-8 million to make any deal work with the poor numbers last year. As others have mentioned, there is a decent chance he turns back to the .250/.350 hitter with 35 HR's so it isn't like we should just dump him to get rid of him. There needs to be a plan to get back that production. Here is something I would look at. 1)Trade Rhys and Peguero (maybe eat a couple million) to Arizona/NYY/NYM for a lotto prospect 2) Sign Kim 1/12-15 with a bigger option 2025 3) Trade for Nate Lowe (or Ryan Mountcastle) for Aaron Civale or 2 mid level prospects This probably depends on a few things but would sure up 1B and 3B improving defense and hopefully the offense if Kim is more 2023 than 2024. It also allows a path for our young 3B or Durbin.