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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    Meh, Best case Chourio plays 162 games in RF win a gold glove and places in top 3 mvp. Worst case, Yeli and Mitchell get hurt Sal in left, Perk in CF, Chourio in RF has a season like last year (I can't see him being worse than last year at this point. I would think we would have Hicklen or Black play OF before giving Bauers more than a few games in the OF.
  2. jay87shot
    This was a awesome game to watch even if our pitching was a little shaky. Yoho looked like a man amongst boys that last slider after like 5 changes was a mega wow moment. Jose Anderson going deep was great, Bitonti hit a couple foul balls extremely hard, I thought Hoestetler and Hardin looked great as new faces. Man the last 2 guys the Reds bullpen looked like future studs as well.
  3. jay87shot
    Chourio was 3/3 with 2 2B, now up to .468 ba with 6 sb. Pretty good. Pratt also over .400 in 19 abs is substantial. Bad pitching day.
  4. jay87shot
    With a top 2-3 catcher in Contreras and top 2-5 catching prospect in Quero we may be in the best shape for catchers in the league. Add in 2 solid vets and a couple interesting younger prospects and it is even better.
  5. jay87shot
    We don't really get to many days off early March 28 (2nd day of year) , April 7, April 17, April 28 through April. I can't see a 4 man working. A bullpen day early works but I don't think we want to do more than 1 early. I would much rather have Logan Henderson start than Rodriguez, Thomas, or Alexander. As much as possible, I would get our pitching prospects big league experience for next year. Patrick and CarRod could be options but haven't been as good in Spring.
  6. jay87shot
    I don't put much stock into pre-season rankings because we always get pushed down based on market size and not having any big splashy off season moves. Peralta being a 3.5 era passible #2 but high end #3, with some potential to be better up to a #1 starter. Woody, Cortes, Civale, Quintana there will be at least 1 guy who has a really solid year around a low 3 or better era #2 starter, one at about 3.5 era #3, 1 of them sub 4 era, #4 starter, and 1 who struggles or gets hurt (hopefully not). Myers is the wild card, I doubt he gets much better than last year but he could be anything from a 2-5 starter in my book. Lets just say we end up with 5 #3 caliber starters, that is for sure a top 10 staff with what will likely be a top 10, good chance at top 5 bullpen. Don't forget guys like Ashby and Misi who have some ace like stuff if things go well for later in the year.
  7. jay87shot
    If any didn't need more reason to be excited for the season look at the current lineup through spring so far. C=Contreras .368 ba 1057 ops 1B=Rhys .350, 1580 ops 2B= Turang .214, 660 ops (only non plus spring) SS=Ortiz ,333, 1115 ops 3B= Dunn .379, 1128 ops, Capra .346, 1414 ops, Monasterio .438, 1341 ops (.591 on base) LF=Sal .346, 933 ops CF=Mitchell .296, 886 ops RF= Chourio .370, 950 ops DH= Yeli .267, 934 ops If you look into the bullpen stats they are really good as well, and with a veteran rotation that has been passible in spring I think this is one of the best spring trainings I can remember stat wise.
  8. jay87shot
    The last one was labeled for the offseason, with the season a week away I figured it was time to just re-label and start a new thread. I think we could be in for a wild season of transaction. I am pretty sure there will be a some roster moves coming soon when the 26 man is due. Additionally I think there is a good likelihood we trade a reliever just because of the roster depth. Additionally I am thinking we should be looking to lineup an early season deal for when Woody, Ashby, and Hall come off the DL. When it comes to the deadline I think we will be aggressive if we are in it like everyone expects, especially if our farm system progresses like most of us think it will. I will put this out there early, if Sandy Alcantara is good and healthy I would be ok overpaying for a guy like him at the deadline. He has 3 cheap years of control and with Woody, Cortes, Civale, and Quintana all FA next year with Freddy a trade candidate with 1 year left we could use a vet with control past this year. Alcantara gets us an ace for a playoff run and vet for 2026. Then with 1 year left going into 2027 we can trade him and re-coup a ton of the trade value we give up. If Alcantara isn't great I am sure there will be some similar cheaper young high end arms we could go after instead.
  9. jay87shot
    I think if Quero plays we there is a decent chance we trade Contreras next offseason, there is going to be a lot of turnover next year in the rotation so turning over the keys makes sense. The issue becomes who will give up 4-5 good pieces for him he won't sign an extension? Someone will, but will they have pieces we want. Come next year we may only need starting pitching and/or and corner IF. Ist isn't a great idea, I think Contreras compares more to Salvy Perez than his brother. If we could get him to sign a 6 year or so extension (i doubt it) he probably would be ok to catch for almost all of it.
  10. jay87shot
    I was attempting to look through college stats today and a couple Tennessee guys caught my attention, I get it is extra early and who know what strength of schedule Tennessee has had but 3 guys caught my eye from Tennessee. Rank 28) Gavin Kilen 2B/SS 78 pa 8 HR 5 SB 3k 17 bb 448/577/1035, yes slugging over 1000 Not draft eligible (freshman) Levi Clark 1B/C/DH 59 pa 6 hr 1 sb 9k 14bb 488/610/1000 Rank 75) Liam Doyle LHP 0.44 era 20.1inn 47 k/5 bb 2 from Wake I like as well Rank 23) Ethan Conrad OF/1B 85 pa 7 hr 4sb 12 k 17 bb 373/506/791 Rank 16) Marek Houston SS 88 pa 7 hr 9 sb 7 k 16 bb 406/511/797
  11. jay87shot
    For me, the Pirates and Cards are basically the same teams. The Cubs are a threat with Kyle Tucker and a little better bullpen and the Reds will be better but they don't reallly scare me because that bullpen only added Taylor Rogers and the still don't have any middle of the order run producing bats.
  12. jay87shot
    So if Woody pitches Sunday, like 3-4 starts to build up and get in rhythm, We are looking at Mid April probably Not much more than 2-3 starts to start the year.
  13. jay87shot
    Hopefully he is can be right all year. If he can hit .250/.350/500 with like 35 bombs this lineup should have no problem filling in for Willy. Through spring so far our starting lineup has looked amazing (maybe not Turang).
  14. jay87shot
    The thing that knocks Martinez down is his age, he will be 26 in a few months and hasn't hit AAA. Agreed him not being in our top 30 is crazy. I think someone could say he has 55 skills across the board with a 45/50 hit tool. 6'6' 250 1st baseman that can be 20/20, play OF and potential gold glove 1B don't come around often (if ever) but a ton of scouts see 25 in AA and kind of dismiss the prospect value massively. I personally have EMJ in the 28-31 range, if he was 2 year younger he is an easy top 10-15 prospect.
  15. jay87shot
    I think Fowler would be a nice add at this point if he isn't to expensive. I won't pay him high end but in the 10-15 probably would be ok. He is past his prime no doubt, but he had 67/710/6 in 12 games (i think a snap count for the 1st couple?). That would be around 90/1000/8 for a full year, way better than Amari Cooper. I think Kupp is likely a good influence on that receiver room.
  16. jay87shot
    I think when Cooper Kupp gets cut we should use some money on him. Something like the deal Davante Adams got 2/46 but really 1 year guarantee. He has the upside, can be a perfect complement to the guys we have, and would be a great 3rd down safety blanket for Love. The we can focus draft efforts on building depth and picking the best talent.
  17. jay87shot
    Westburg entrenched at 3B, Mountcatle and O'Hearn at 1B aren't blocking him long term at 1B but you have to remember Basallo will be ready probably next year. They have like 5 OF this year with Mullins, Cowser, Hjerstad, O'Niel, and then Laureano and Carlson. I didnt mention Urais and Mateo as other IF depth. They have O'Hearn, extra OF, Sanchez as DH options as well. I would say he is like 3rd on the depth chart everywhere and probably 2nd at 3rd base. Can they find him 400 ab's if motivated sure, but playing somewhere different everyday and get 2-3 day a week off isn't ideal for that type of prospect. They will need pitching at some point and Peralta with maybe Sandy Alcantra is as good as it gets on a non 1 year pitcher. I just think the needs and timing will match up perfectly that we get Woody and Ashby back the O's get desperate in an always competitive AL East and we can benefit.
  18. jay87shot
    I don't mind either player but I do think both are relative overpays. Banks to me is slightly above average as a guard, a good player yes but for 19 million a year at guard I want a pro bowl caliber player and Banks hasn't been that. Hobbs again is a really good slot corner but the previous high for a slot corner was 10 million a year and he only has 3 picks in 4 years with 19 pass deflections (meh). Maybe we think he can play outside and will be getting pretty good value if that is the case. Again it seems like an overpay for a good but not great player. I only look at missed opportunities for a short time but Dre Greenlaw for 3/35, Ryan Kelly for 2/18, James Daniels at 3/24, and even Chris Godwin at 3/66 look like pretty good deals to me. Even though most of those are coming off injuries or older.
  19. jay87shot
    Coby Mayo is light years ahead of Wilken. Mayo .293/.372/.592 25 HR AAA as 22 yr old (not great mlb debut), generally regaurded as top 20 prospect in all of baseball. Even better in 2023 Wilken .200/.314/.365 17 HR AA as 22 yr old (not great in AFL), generally regarded as borderline top 20 prospect in out system. Neither are great 3B baseman or baserunners but Mayo does get a 70 grade arm to Wilkens 60 and 40 run to Wilken's 30 (per mlb). Mayo is about top of the mountain in terms of 3B potential that could be reasonably acquired and if he doesn't cut it at 3B I would think he has top notch 1B defensive potential. I still have a lot of hope for Wilken but he is a long way from Mayo.
  20. jay87shot
    The mlb draft is more like signing day for college football or basketball with an order than nba or the nfl drafts usually I have watched some college games for those prospects and have an opinion of my own for them. The MLB draft has no house hold names (outside 1 or 2 guys) that get drafted so for fans like us our perspectives come off a couple minute youtube clips, tweets with a scouting break down, potentially college stats, and whatever write ups are available. There really aren't bad picks, maybe poor strategy depending on who you can/can't sign. There are always a ton of guys underranked or missed just because there is to much baseball to scout everything. HS, all division of college, Juco, some CC, Canada at times, and probably more at times. Even when you factor in like 10+ scouts per team with tons of "draft experts" some guys slip through the cracks or are way overvalued. Even the top guys take like a year and a half to get to the bigs so there is no immediacy with the initial hype, add in that rookie ball now ends when the draft is you don't even get to see most HS guys and some overwork college pitchers until the next season.
  21. jay87shot
    Yeah, the minor league coverage here is second to none. If you are interested in following prospects and the minors you are in the right place. The daily minor league recap write ups here are spectacular and someone is always in the know when anything goes down.
  22. jay87shot
    Here is my in season prediction, May 15th We trade Freddy Peralta, Luke Adams, and Joel Payamps to the Orioles for Coby Mayo and Chayce McDermott Come May we should have Woody and Ashby at full strength with Hall at least on rehab. The O's already have Grayson Rodriguez injured and really have an injury prone/older rest of the staff. I predict that Coby Mayo is just to blocked in Baltimore and they have Samuel Basallo as a 1B/DH for the future and Peralta looks to good to them and our need for a 3rd baseman is to great. Mayo is exactly what we need long term as a power hitting fixture he can play 3B or 1B and when everyone is healthy and the AAA depth for the future makes Freddy expendable for the perfect bat. Adams is blocked potentially with our own corner IF depth and Yoho replace Payamps.
  23. jay87shot
    A player gets a full year of service time if they are on the roster for 172 days of the 187 day season. So if you have a superstar who you don't think is ever going to get demoted to the minors you can essentially call that guy up close to the 16 days or so they need to be in the minors and then you gain an extra year of control. Some guys who will be up an down it doesn't really matter but I think most of us feel that Yoho will be good enough not to be sent down and with the depth it gives the big league club a month or so to see if one of the other bullpen options will separate themselves, there maybe is just an injury and Yoho is needed, or maybe everyone looks good and Woody, Ashby, and Yoho are ready around the same time and we can trade some arms for a 3rd baseman.
  24. jay87shot
    With injuries building on some teams are there any spots that we could take advantage of? We still have really good bullpen depth and utility IF. Maybe Jorge Alfaro to a catcher needy team if we can get some value back. Tyler Black somewhere if you are out on Black (I am not).
  25. jay87shot
    I prefer Pratt in Appleton by a sliver but barely and only for like 75-100 ab's just because I want him to get off to a better start to the year. However with the weather difference in Biloxi maybe Biloxi is a better place for hitters in April. Pratt only had 94 PA in A+ ball and wasn't great, although I would have no problem if they started him in AA based on his solid spring in big league camp. Also it gives Eric Brown a chance at AA SS, if he plays well it could boost his confidence and he could move to AAA quickly as well. I think the goal for me is to get Pratt like 100+ ab's in AAA this year and give him a shot to win an IF job next spring (if he earns it). I think that is possible either place he starts. For me all the rest Lara, Dinges, Pena all should get the bump up. I like one of Jose Anderson or Juan Ortuno to go straight to A ball to play OF, as well as Wande Torres potentially.
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