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jay87shot

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Everything posted by jay87shot

  1. jay87shot
    If we were to acquire Mayer or just have Pratt explode and get a call up my guess is that either of them would just play SS. Move Ortiz back to 3B where he was great defensively (if the bat come back around).
  2. jay87shot
    I don't have to many problems with Arnold. It's not his fault Yeli and Contreras aren't living up to expectation and none of us would have invasion Joey Ortiz's bat to fall apart. As others have mentioned the other options at 3rd that we could afford have not been good. You can beat him up some for the Devin return, Smith debacle, and the Priester overpay but also need to give credit for Myers, Patrick, and basically the entire bullpen. No other team could lose their offensive leader, top notch closer, have the 2-8 starters miss extended time while only having a 120 million dollar budget (or so) and be around .500. Arnold has at least through the trade deadline before I start getting critical of his job. Individual moves, yes I will criticize but Arnold overall is still top notch in my book.
  3. jay87shot
    We are 20-21, just a smidgen over 1/4 of the way through the year. I like to think at 1/4 of the way it is OK to make diffinitive statements that don't include small the phrases sample size or it is early in the year. Yes the term there is a lot of season left is OK. Here are my observations. 1) We need someone to jump start this offense badly. Yeli and Contreras have been underwhelming. Chourio shows some signs but needs a slight adjustment to take more walks (or chase less pitches). Sal and Turang have been good but aren't the run producers we need. 2) The pitching has been great, especially when you take account of the injuries sustained. The bullpen is starting to take shape and looks to be close to settled. It will be really interesting to see how Arnold manages the roster spots over the next couple weeks as Woody, Civale, Ashby, Hall finish rehab. Not to mention Misi and likely Yoho deserving big league innings. I have been mentioning trading pitching for a 3B/SS as much as possible. 3)The future looks brighter than ever, even though the big league team isn't quite where we would all like it. Our minors seem to be getting deeper and deeper. 4) I am predicting a very active trade season. We will likely be one of the only teams with excess mlb arms to trade away and prospect to send out to add. Hopefully Arnold can find a way to add a controllable potential star or two that will help us catch the cubs this year and contribute long term.
  4. jay87shot
    I kind of was looking at as who deserves a promotion. I was thinking Made and Pena would be a month or so away but both are showing the upside that they will get a promotion by at least half way. I would move Burke to AA and then one of Boeve or Wilken to keep playing time available in AA and move and get an upside prospect to AAA. I think Dinges and Josh A can still work on some weaknesses at Appleton so a promotion based on the advanced bat still makes sense. I was kind of hoping some others would make lists just to see how you all evaluate who is most ready for promotions as well.
  5. jay87shot
    So on that list it would be one of Boeve or Wilken to get an upside 3B to AAA, both of Made and Pena maybe like June, and I put Henderson and Rodriguez there because they have been very good but likely won't get a shot for a while with Woody, Civale, Hall, and Ashby all on rehab. I left Yoho off as well but think a couple good AAA appearances should get him back in the bigs. I could see EMJ, Liranzo, Longhorn, Garcia, Hardin, Pratt, Crow, Peguero, Letson, Meccage, among others as deserving.
  6. jay87shot
    I think this might be a fun exercise as most minor league regulars are getting to 100 abs or the 30-40 inning marks. 1. Justin Yeager 2. Jadher Arienamo 3. Blake Burke 4. Jacob Misiorowski 5. Josh Adamczeski 6. Marco Dinges 7. Tanner Gillis 8. Logan Henderson/Carlos Rodriguez 9. Brock Wilken/Mike Boeve 10. Jesus Made/Luis Pena There are probably a few more relievers in the Yeager, Gillis mold that deserve a promotion. I could easily see a dozen or so othe deserving options.
  7. jay87shot
    It's nice to see Tanner Shears in the rookie ball box score. Hopefully he can return to full strength. Bobby Dalbac is an interesting add, kind of the definition of a AAAA player. Very good in AAA but little mlb success. Here's to hoping he can break through however adding cast-offs from the White Sox might not be the best strategy.
  8. jay87shot
    Maybe he is turning the corner? Even though the ERA is still gross, I am pretty sure after a little rough start last year he had a really good last like 40 appearances or something like that.
  9. jay87shot
    I am not able to watch the game today but am following the mlb GameDay app. Any reason Quintana only threw 75 pitches? It seemed like he was pitching ok but the defense let him down. I was all ready to praise Koenig when he went in for the 6th and then he gives up a run.
  10. jay87shot
    I can't see how Misi doesn't earn a promotion after that start. Would Freddy, Patrick, Quintana, Myers, Woody, and Misi as a 6 man work or would people prefer to use Misi in a piggyback or opener situation. I guess if he is throwing 100 at pitch 90 something I would just go 6 man rotation and figure it out when Civale is ready.
  11. jay87shot
    In general I would say they matter, just based on logic. If strikeouts are good for pitchers that means logically they are bad for hitters. I feel like they don't matter if the player is being productive and hitting the ball hard in the other ab's. I do think they matter to guys who don't slug well. For example, Collins and Capra both have 14 k's in similar amounts of ab's. Joey Ortiz has 21 k's and Hoskins has 27 k's in similar ab's, the k's don't matter much when comparing 2 guys but with you compare a team as an entire lineup. For the most part, the teams at the bottom 10 of the league in strikeouts don't end up in say the top 10 in the league for runs (it can happen).
  12. jay87shot
    I can't see any of our free agents getting a comp. at this time. Maybe Woodruff if he is lights out for 15-20 starts but with his extended rehab I don't think the top of the rotation stuff is coming back. If he can get to 93-95 consistently he has some upside to come back but I doubt the 95-98 is going to be back at this point. I am pretty sure Cortes is going to have to go one 1 year deals, it has been a while since he has been good and/or consistently healthy. Civale is probably in that boat as well. If Peralta continues the way he has started it is going to be really interesting to see if we trade him. If we got a Burnes like package 3 good pieces, 2 of which are mlb ready current or past top 100 players it would be hard to pass on. I think some of that depends on oh well our young pitchers finish the year Myers, Patrick, Misi, Henderson CarRod, Priester, Gasser, and guys like Wichrowski/Hunt can form a solid rotation but could use an ace. I wish that the team would have tried to extend him this offseason (if they didn't).
  13. jay87shot
    I would promote him if he stays hot for a week, this guy needs some positive to balance out the past year (baseball wise). It sounds like his defense has improved and he has had a lot of positive this year even if the walk rate is crazy unsustainable. He is repeating AA and even played there at the tail end of 2023, I just think the time is right to give him some good news and kick start the bat and aggressiveness into AAA. It would really be nice to have an option where Wilken and Boeve could be ready to help the big league team at some point this year an open up some room behind them for our loaded lower level IF prospects.
  14. jay87shot
    I am not majorly concerned with Contreras, he just isn't squaring the ball up IMO. He has always been one to adjust his stance and set-up based on what he is trying to do off a pitcher. I don't worry because he is still hitting around .250, he is taking walks and no striking out much (22 bb to 25 k). We will need Contreras and Yeli to get on track to be a contender but it is a long year, maybe when we get to June and his power is still not back I will start to worry a tad. I worry more about Joey Ortiz than anyone at this point, I thought he was a guy who would obviously take a step forward. At this point, Ortiz having a ops about .300 points lower than I had hoped and having an overall -1.0 WAR is what is really hurting the team. We knew 3B was going to be a hodgepodge and might take 1/2 the year to find.
  15. jay87shot
    I don't expect Anderson or Ortuno to be in rookie ball long. I would think there is a string of promotions with a couple weeks, Wilken AAA, Jadher AA, Josh A, Dinges A+, that might be a chance for one or both of them and then maybe mid June-ish I would expect the better Carolina guys to move up as well. Maybe by the midJune area a couple of the other teenagers like Corobo, Quintana, or other will be ready as well.
  16. jay87shot
    Maybe the Yankees will trade us back Devin for Cortes around the deadline when Nestor is healthy. Hook and company get him back on track for the stretch run.
  17. jay87shot
    What about Jake Bauers (maybe throw in small 2nd piece) for David Hamilton. The Sox need 1B help we need IF help. Hamilton could be an upside SS add that is familiar with our system and some players. EMJ could come platoon 1st and even play some OF if he still has it.
  18. jay87shot
    The part I don't like is that it seems like we paniced in response to injuries, when we had equally attractive (or better) talent in AAA that seems ready. It just is a super out of character move for us. I like the idea of getting a young upside arm for long term. By no means am I out on Priester. I think he has some #3 starter upside if he can hone in the command. For me, the Pirates got Nick Yorke at the deadline for him a prospect I would have valued similar to Yophery. It just seems like we gave away the 1st rounder out of panic.
  19. jay87shot
    I would trade Alexander as well but he has basically no value, once Woody, Civale, Ashby, Hall, Nestor come back there will be a major roster spot crunch on the pitching staff. Alexander is probably like 2nd to go after e-rod but Patrick is safe for a while but a couple bad starts and he might move down quickly based on Murphy having a quick hook once he gets through a lineup 2 times. I would rather get something for him now (if someone will overpay) than end up with him being a Colin Rae type down the road with no value.
  20. jay87shot
    I agree, Misi isn't probably a starter all year but he is looking like he is ready to come up. Misi threw 97 innings, my guess is that 125-135 innings should be the goal. That gives him like 20 starts at 5 innings each and 25+ bullpen innings. Honestly the workload would be more a concern for Henderson than Misi, My point with trading Patrick is that his value might never be higher than this, if the organization values the upside of Myers, Misi, Henderson, CarRod, Preister, and guys like Hunt or Wichrowski trading him at peek value makes some sense. I wouldn't trade him cheap I would want a capable left side infielder and a quality prospect, if you take into account that Patrick was never even a top 30 prospect and will be 27 by the the end of the season I think getting a Priester style return would be worth it, With his the quality of his starts and remaining control I wouldn't trade him cheap but my worry is that the league will adjust to him and he will revert back to a #5/long relief pitcher. We are potentially losing 4 starters but don't forget we will likely sign a couple of vets somewhere in the Quintana-Junis-Alexander realm next year. Who knows what will happen with Freddy but my guess would be that if we trade him we would get an mlb ready pitcher (and more).
  21. jay87shot
    We could have 12 good starting options by the trade deadline if everyone gets healthy and the AAA guys keep pitching exceptionally. 1. Freddy 2. Woody 3. Quintana 4. Civale 5. Cortes 6. Myers 7. Patrick 8. Priester 9. Misi 10. Henderson 11, CarRod 12. Gasser I think Civale and Cortes (maybe Quintana if he continues to come back down to his norms) become good trade options once they can make a couple starts and prove their health to the rest of the league. I doubt any of them will be good enough to warrant a QO like we thought could be possible. What about selling high on Chad Patrick? He has been great but likely long term is still a 4/5 and Murphy doesn't seem to have a ton of confidence in him (short leash). What would a good value be, could we get something that is around what we gave up for Priester? Would Chad Patrick for Will Wagner and a younger starter like Juaron Watts-Brown be enough. We get a 3rd base option (not very good this year) and some upside, maybe throw in a wild card prospect? Ramon Urias and a a pitcher like Nestor German would be a better package from the O's if they would give up Urias. Maybe the dodgers would do Miguel Rojas and a upside starter who was hurt last year like River Ryan or Emmett Sheehan
  22. jay87shot
    Here are my thoughts over 1/5 of the way through. Again these are rankings based on predicting what they will do for us the rest of the season not counting what they have done 1. Freddie 2. Quintana 3. Megill 4. Koenig 5, Uribe 6. Woody 7. Myers 8. Mears 9 Anderson (Biggest riser) 10. Patrick 11. Civale 12. Priester 13. Cortes 14. Yoho 15. Ashby 16 Misi 17. Henderson 18. Payamps 19. Hudson (biggest faller) 20. Peguero 21. Alexander 22. Hall 23. E Rod 24. CarRod 25. Gasser 26. Liranzo 27. D Garcia 28. C Thomas 29. Jay 30. Yeager Same as my post at the beginning of the year, when everyone gets healthy and the AAA guys who are ready there is a lot of excess to trade from. It wouldn't surprise me at the trade deadline we could have a rotation of healthy arms of 1. Freddy 2. Woody 3. Quintana 4. Civale 5. Cortes 6. Myers 7. Patrick 8. Priester 9. Misi 10. Henderson 11, CarRod 12. Gasser I think we could start trading high on a couple vets come June especially if 3B and SS continue to be rough.
  23. jay87shot
    I would not be against that at some point if Zamora can prove some consistency. Maybe in a month or so if he can keep it going, as far as I know the glove for Zamora should be much better.
  24. jay87shot
    If Wilken keeps this up he could push his way to AAA soon, Jadher to AA, Adamchezki to Wisconsin. Lord knows we could use some 3B options in the bigs.
  25. jay87shot
    Good win, Freddy has been amazing. Hopefully we can get some consistency going. If Frelick isn't hurt I think Murph needs to fully reorder the batting order. Drop Yeli to like 7/8, since no one is hitting for power put Sal and Turang in better run producing spots. Maybe Chourio leading off leads him to be more patient. Chourio, Sal, Rhys/William, Turang, William/Rhys, Collins/Bauers, Durbin, Yeli, Ortiz
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