Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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Chourio to IL with left hand fracture, Perkins recalled
Brewcrew82 replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Nobody said BrewerFanatic posters were smart either for that matter -
Record: 90-72 Postseason: Yes. WC, but win first Pennant since 1982 as Dodgers get taken out in the NLDS. CY Young: Mis. Control improves year to year again. Posts 3.35 ERA over 140 innings but gets around 180 Ks. MVP: Tie between Contreras and Chourio. Can’t pick one. Think both are primed for huge years. Chourio his 3rd year in will take a leap to hit close to 30 HRs and Contreras with a healthy thumb and heading into a contract year will have a prime season at the plate while catching basically everyday. 5+ WAR seasons for both. ROY: Sproat. Tempted to pick the other part of the Freddy trade in Jett who I think ends up starting at 3B sooner than later, but I can’t get over how good Sproat’s stuff and command have looked in spring. Surprising Player: Jake Bauers easily. I think he’ll have a 120 wRC+ type season and play a lot more OF than we think as I don’t think Vaughn is going to have a huge regression either. Disappointing Player: Also easy with Mitchell. You know he’ll get injured again, and even when he’s in the lineup it won’t be pretty as he’s going to strike out a ton and hit the ball on the ground mostly when he does put it in play.
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Woody was hitting 92-93 consistently in the first three innings. Which is about where he was last year. Then after a long down period caused by a 7 run outburst, he was at 88-89. Tells me he was tiring and that he's not fully built up. I think at least one more start before the regular season is necessary.
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Joey O having a killer spring. Hopefully we're not about to be reminded how meaningless ST stats are.
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MIL's Near Future INF Using Only Our Prospects
Brewcrew82 replied to Turning2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Pena to the OF first of all. SS and 3B taken by some combo of Pratt, Made, and Fischer. 1B between Adams, Wilken, and Burke, with a platoon possible. Jett Williams=Ben Zobrist (IF and OF) Likelihood is some of these guys will bust and/or get injured and the "problem" will sort itself The only certainty I have at this point is that Made will entrench himself somewhere on this IF. -
There's different types of TOS. Priester was just interviewed and said he has the version which guys have been able to make it back from pretty regularly and in a relatively short turnaround time. https://x.com/AdamMcCalvy/status/2032475095017656378?s=20
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Jackson Chourio (maybe a slight poor man's) who is lost trying to play the IF. Aggressive approaches and level of speed are quite similar. Pena has shown slightly more contact ability to this point, while Chourio obviously had actualized more over the fence power at this stage. I think that's pretty accurate, though the Soriano comp is solid, too. I think Pena's speed and athleticism would play well in the OF like Chourio's ultimately did.
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I really don't have much interest in Joey Gallo 2.0 IF things work out.
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I don't see why there's reason to be any more worried as long as he hasn't had any type of setback since September, which by every indication he hasn't. Being cautious and ramping up slowly=a good thing. It's a marathon not a sprint.
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I'd personally much rather see Chourio in CF. Not only are you limiting his total value playing him in a corner, but you're also putting yourself in a position where you're potentially limiting ABs for your better hitters in favor of Perkins and Lockridge, if Mitchell doesn't stay healthy. He's got the ability and reads/jumps. He just needs the reps.
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I mean you're talking about a .312 xwOBA for Durbin vs. a .272 career xwOBA for Hamilton. Hamilton can outperform that due to his superior speed and Durbin may fall back to earth a bit, but that's still a significant gap. You're talking about close to league average hitter metrically vs. a very bottom of the league tier hitter metrically. To illustrate, Joey Ortiz had a .275 xWOBA last year, which was in the 3rd percentile league-wide.
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IF alignment ain't changing. Gonna be Turang at 2B and Ortiz at SS. TBD at 3B.
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I find it very hard to believe the Brewers think Hamilton's a better player than Durbin. I don't know how you can look at things objectively as the Brewers typically do and come to that conclusion. I think it's more they were literally trading away their entire IF depth and they needed an MLB IF back from the Red Sox in return. And when you look at the Red Sox infielders, Hamilton made the only sense.
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Garrett Mitchell and that's my final and best offer....
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3 WAR is pretty dang close to top of the rotation production. FIP is predictive not necessarily descriptive. Brewers also don’t need Harrison to be a true top of the rotation starter for the trade to be successful. Something approaching Priester’s production last year would likely do the trick. You also realize that Boston was absolutely getting desperate for an infielder after they lost Bregman with a couple days to go until ST. So the fact that they were willing to part with Harrison to get that is not necessarily an indictment.
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Chourio, at ages 20 and 21, has shown more “consistent power” than Contreras the last two years…. I think lack of power throughout the lineup is a genuine concern but I also like the chances of further leaps in the power department from Chourio another year closer to his prime and Contreras with a healthy thumb.
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If it were true that they're planning to take a step back this season and that their "real window" is in a couple years, you would have heard about them dangling William Contreras in trades this offseason. Because that's so obviously what that philosophy would dictate. They don't have "windows". They're focused on winning now AND in the future. And have consistently said as much. These moves are more geared towards the future certainly, but they also traded for pieces that are going to impact the MLB club starting this year.
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Like you said, Durbin had no experience at 3B when we traded for him. I think the Brewers' look at tools and arguably Williams' tools at 3B>Durbin's tools at 3B. We'll see if an outside acquisition comes.
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Jett Williams at 3B or outside trade imo.
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Right, and how much of his OBP was propped up by his league leading HBP rate? If that regresses to the mean....
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He has Chourio type of raw power (105.2 90th percentile EV at 18), but it's untapped in-game right now due to his swing plane. I'd be shocked if he wasn't a regular 20 HR threat. A more optimized swing plane and he could have seasons where he threatens 30.
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I think people really need to get out of the "window" mentality with this FO. The Brewers don't circle single years of contention. What they focus on is this year (hence the, "win tonight" mantra), and then keeping the train rolling for each of the next 6 years or so. They want to get to the postseason every single one of those years and thereby maximize their WS chances.
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If there was any doubt at this point, controllable, particularly youthful, high-upside, starting pitching=most valuable commodity in baseball. Only thing that compares is young, controllable, power-hitting middle IFers and CFers. After their two most recent trades, the Brewers now have a stockpile of the former. As for the latter, they have Jackson Chourio under contract for 8 more years, and Jesus Made probably only a year away. That's the plan, and their pathway to a WS.....
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Or that the 2024 Brewers were better than the 2023 Brewers.....And on and on
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Another thing about Suarez besides the defense is the decline in his plate discipline metrics last year. For a guy who already strikes out 30% of the time, that's a bright red flashing light. Once his bat speed goes, which it could at any time at his age, that's the end of him as a MLB player. There just wasn't much of an incentive on the Brewers part to give him $15 million, even on one year, and eat into their financial flexibility for this season.
