Brewcrew82

Brewers should try to do a 3rd party swoop in here as they did with Contreras. Casas/Hoskins platoon at 1B and/or 1B/DH. All of a sudden Adames' power is replaced and what you do at 3B becomes a lot less important.

Full version is up, and yeah it’s just plain selling us short on LF and C. I mean ZIPS currently has Chourio projected for a full 1 WAR less than…..Pete Crow Armstrong. Yikes. Oh well, ZIPS undervaluing the Brewers. What’s new, right? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/

It's like most projection systems which herd a ton and play things conservatively. In the aggregate it's quite accurate, but it will also miss at the team and individual levels at varying levels. With the Brewers, you are correct that it misses more often than not due largely to our emphasis on team defense. I personally just don't see an excuse for shortchanging Contreras or Chourio at their ages and the seasons they're coming off of, if that's what it's indeed doing.

A few things here: -LF and C seem way too low at first glance. Feel like ZIPS has to have Haase at replacement to sub replacement level and Yelich with some age/injury related decline. Because otherwise you'd have declines for Chourio and Contreras, and I don't know how you can reasonably project that, even at a 50% outcome level. -Very high on our SP. Seems like it pretty much assumes Woodruff returns to pre-injury form. So may be somewhat of a cancellation effect here between that and LF/C. -RP doesn't skip a beat without Devin. Reinforces how trading Devin was clearly the correct decision. -We really need to add another Corner IF. Dunn/Durbin, Ortiz, Turang, and Hoskins ain't going to cut it in the IF.

ZIPS preview is out, with full dataset to be released tomorrow.

Are the supposed payroll restrictions due to the TV situation real? Or are they more waiting out the market and ready to strike if the right opportunity arises?

I’m not convinced they need to be searching long-term there. Even with Wilken sputtering at AA, they have Boeve, Pratt, Bitonti, and Made making their way up through the ranks. You have to like the chances of at least one of those guys to entrench themselves in the IF over the next few years alongside Ortiz and Turang.

I keep hearing this (and I agree they probably need more power) but honestly the specific position they get the increased power from doesn’t really matter. Runs resulting from power count the same regardless of which position they come from. Sure in an ideal world it’d slot in nicely at 3B/SS to replace Adames, but there’s other positions they could acquire it from if the supply and price is better. Nate82 mentioned this before, but I wonder if the Brewers won’t eventually swoop in on the Pete Alonso sweepstakes on a pillow type deal. Pretty much all of the teams in the market for a 1B this winter have already acquired one, and the Mets who would be the most obvious suitor might have other players in mind. Sign Alonso and move Hoskins to DH and all of a sudden you have more power than you did last year with Adames. There’s also power bats in the OF still available which could lead them to deal a Frelick for depth elsewhere on the roster.

Brewers should definitely be among the teams talking with the Jays. About as close to a "like for like" replacement for Willy as you're going to get. I'd have no problem going for a one year rental in this situation, and the price shouldn't be too steep considering the year Bichette is coming off of. Only potential issue is that I doubt the Brewers feel comfortable with Bichette at SS considering the premium they place on defense up the middle. They would probably want to ask Bichette to move to 3B or 2B, which he may balk at as an impending FA. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6008454/2024/12/19/blue-jays-vladimir-guerrero-bo-bichette-yankees/

Turang to stay at 2B, per Rosenthal. Easy decision to not move the Platinum Glove winner imo.

He puts up another 3 WAR season for us in addition to the ones in 22 and last year, and he'll probably be looking at Severino's contract at least.

I understand the sentiment, but I would just push back on Nestor Cortes being a "dime a dozen guy that's available for near nothing every March". In the current starting pitching market, you have guys like Frankie Montas going for $17 million...Meanwhile, Fried who produced at a similar rate to Cortes last season got over $200 million. We'll only have him for one year, sure, but a guy at the salary and production of Cortes is like gold at $8 million in this market.

Projections have Chourio as a negative on defense and probably sell short his base running, too. 119 wRC+ from Chourio is almost certainly 4+ win player. He picks up where he left off post-June and that's a 5 win player at least most likely 6.

Hope is that his pull rate can counteract his lack of pop. But, yeah, those EV #s are almost identical to Sal Frelick's.

That's actually not too bad considering they tend to be more on the conservative side. His eye at the plate definitely gives him a solid floor.

It's definitely exciting to watch. I think the one remaining hole they have to address is to find a way to replace Adames' power in the lineup. At least with Durbin in tow they're not necessarily pigeonholed into trying to get it from the IF.

Fried probably squeezed him out. Cole, Fried, Rodon, Schmidt, Gil is their 5.

FWIW, Yankees fans not big on losing Durbin. Apparently, Cashman said he was a candidate to replace Gleyber as the starting 2Bman.

Hader also had an extra .5 year of control as well. I'm satisfied with the return. We needed some insurance in the rotation and Cortes is as solid as it gets. Durbin is the wild card, but have to like his fit on this team in terms of skillset.

I'm not convinced they plan on simply installing Durbin at 2B. I think it's more about adding to the IF depth which took a hit with Adames leaving and giving them options in navigating the rest of the offseason. Maybe they feel more comfortable going after Alonso/Goldschmidt now?

Nestor is a middle of the rotation starter. Have you seen what the going rate for that is on the open market? Durbin is an MLB ready prospect that we can add to the infield mix and who fits like a glove with the team-wide philosophy of getting on base and speed. Bottom line is Devin had a single year of control as a reliever. Middle of the rotation starter>elite reliever.

I actually think this has Yankees written over it as a replacement for Soto, and they’d probably be the front runners to resign him.

I actually don't think the White Sox will be that interested in Quero as a headliner given the injury and the fact that they already have a top 100 catcher named Quero of their own in AAA (Edgar). Pratt makes the most sense for them as a headliner if we assume (I sincerely hope) that Made is untouchable. Then throw in one of our controllable OFers so that their FO can have something to show their fans and improve a horrific MLB roster. So, either Mitchell or Frelick. Plus at least one more high upside prospect from the lower levels. Think Bitonti, Payne, Yophery Rodriguez. Now, would I give that up if I were the Brewers? It's a tough call. Losing Garrett or Sal off the MLB roster would sting, but FA remains wide open with several potential replacements available some of whom possess the improved power this team could use. Pratt hurts the most as I currently have him pegged as our SS of the future. But remember we still have Ortiz and Turang under control for 4-5 seasons each and also Made and Pena not too far behind Pratt. Bitonti, Payne, Rodriguez, etc. all have high upside, but remain a ways away. Overall, I think it comes down to how good you think Crochet will be over those two remaining years of control for a young, contending team that could use a top of the rotation type starter. For the record, I think IF HEALTHY (which is a risk in and of itself) Crochet is a top 5 starter in baseball, which would be worth it imo.

Yeah, this is probably it. Pratt obviously would sting the most. I'd have to imagine the White Sox would try to get a Bitonti or a Payne included in this deal alongside Pratt. Made is untouchable for obvious reasons. I will say that we as Brewers fans should probably get over our prospect hugging a bit. Guys like Chourio and Made aren't necessarily easily replaceable, but this FO has developed an infrastructure that now continually churns out high level talent through the draft and through the international market particularly. I would hate to lose a Pratt or a Yophery Rodriguez, but we'd still have Made, Pena, Bitonti, Payne, etc to go with our new signing class and then our 5 top 70 picks in the upcoming draft. Bottom line is we really shouldn't get too hung up over specific names (most of whom won't pan out to begin with) and instead trust this FO's ability to replenish what is lost. Same with San Diego which gave up big hauls for Soto, Darvish, yet has guys DeVries, Salas, etc. now making their way through the ranks.

Makes it even better that he wins one before Greg.