Brewcrew82
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Everything posted by Brewcrew82
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Do you see anybody here giving them "A's" for their offseason? Because I see mostly C's and D's. So much for "blind optimism".
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RBIs has a lot less to do with winning than WAR I can tell you that. It’s a team stat that’s largely dependent on who gets on base in front of you.
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Who cares about RBIs in the year 2025. The name of the game is wins which is why I used WAR.
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Your exact words were “definitely not” about a majority of them…. When over a 162 game pace that’s exactly what Chourio would have done with his post-June pace. And like I said Chourio isn’t the only young player that could improve.
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Yes I have. Which is why I’m increasingly questioning if you even watched the last one.
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No we lambaste you because you jump up and down about how the Brewers are incapable of advancing past the 1st round of the postseason, while dismissing that if their all-star closer had pitched an inning of one run ball they would have done just that.
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I mean they had four months to make adjustments last year, and they didn't, including in the postseason. I would say William Contreras and Christian Yelich are fine enough protection to put around him in the lineup. Willy Adames put up a 3.0 bWAR last year. Chourio put up a 3.0 bWAR in the second half alone, which is an over 6.0 bWAR pace over a full season. So, to say definitively that he can replace only a "fraction of them" isn't really borne out of reality. Not to mention we have plenty of other young guys on this team who could improve and help fill in the gap.
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You don't think we can expect any of our young guys, like Chourio, to bite into those numbers with improvement?
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Not as confident as I am in saying Tyler Black will not be playing any 3B for this team.
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I've got them at a C-. Getting Cortes for Devin makes this a better rotation than last year, and arguably doesn't downgrade the bullpen much if at all considering how little Devin pitched for us last year. But they really needed to add someone in the infield or to add a power bat somewhere else to account for the loss of Adames. As it stands right now, I think we're at roughly even odds to win the division. Which isn't great considering we won it by 10 games last year.
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How quickly some people conveniently forget that we literally would’ve advanced in the postseason had our all star closer been capable of pitching a scoreless or even one run inning.
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Am I correct or did you not feel this exact same way about our off-season last year? If we can’t trust the team, then why should we entertain your position?
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I would say they view Frelick and Chourio equally. They only moved Frelick to RF and Chourio to LF because Yelich got injured and Frelick had a stretch of poor performances in LF. Otherwise, Chourio was the NL GG favorite in RF for a good chunk of the season.
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Blake is definitely a better defender. I’m not convinced Mitchell is, though. And all else being equal, I’ll go with the better hitter. Not sure Mitchell’s value would be depressed by moving him to RF, for instance. They’re so close defensively that I ultimately don’t expect them to do anything drastic, but I’d like to see them give Chourio reps in CF this spring.
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Sure, but even then, there’s a legitimate case to be made… I’d at least give him some time there in ST.
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He’s definitely a good fielder. All of them are. Perkins is a step above the rest, and should be playing CF any time he’s out there. I just wanted to point out that the 20 year old only a few years removed from playing in the infield was a lot better than people think compared to the 26 year old Mitchell. And it’s probably worth considering moving him there. If you do, you’re only increasing Chourio’s potential value.
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Also, here's some food for thought: Jackson Chourio (2024 OF): 6 OAA, 12 DRS, 9.4 UZR/150, 3.1 DEF Garrett Mitchell: (2024 OF): 2 OAA, 6 DRS, 7.9 UZR/150, 1.3 DEF. There's like a serious case to be made to move Chourio to CF.....
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Was just thinking about how our defensive alignment is a little more unsettled than usual heading into ST.... Catcher is straightforward with Contreras. But after that, it gets a lot more fuzzy... First base looks like Hoskins for now. But do you really want him playing the field that much? Is there a better option out there in FA and/or through trade? Second base ideally should belong to the Platinum Glover in Turang. But does Turang move to SS with Willy gone? 2B is also probably Durbin's best position, and you have to find him a place on the infield as of right now... Ortiz is the presumed favorite to start SS, but might the Brewers prefer to keep him at 3B where he thrived last year? In that case, could Turang be the one who takes over the SS position from Willy? Durbin is penciled in at third base right now according to most projections, but might he not be a better fit for 2B? Is Yelich healthy enough to play left field? Sal won the GG in RF, but Chourio was every bit as elite when he played there according to the metrics. Do you defer to your young stud?
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2024 Major Publication Prospect Ranks
Brewcrew82 replied to jay87shot's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I appreciate that he's willing to push his chips in on guys before they become more consensus among the mainstream sites. He'll miss on some, sure, but I think he's had a fair share of hits, like Made and Hope. I don't necessarily think his focus on chase and age is a bad thing, considering those are two of the biggest predictors of prospect success. Agree Adams was bad, though. Patently obvious his swing and hyperpassivity will run into trouble against higher level pitching. -
2024 Major Publication Prospect Ranks
Brewcrew82 replied to jay87shot's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Definitely has a track record, too. He was the first to put Made in his top 100 this summer. -
The saddest day of Brewers baseball. Way worse than the one last October and puts the tears in Yeli's and the players’ faces after that game because of Ueck into context.
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Ashby is a huge wild card for this team. He hasn’t been as terrible as a starter as people think, and his stuff now looks better than ever. If he could be Framber Valdez lite our rotation becomes a major strength for us again.
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1) Fast riser: Made is the easy answer, but I wouldn't bet on anyone else. Should at least end up in Appleton considering Yophery and Lara both got there last two seasons. Outside chance at Biloxi, which would truly be a Chourio redux and probably mean he's a top 10/5 prospect. 2) Out of nowhere: 3) Rise to consensus top 100: Easy. Eric Bitonti, aka Mr. Coby Mayo clone. 4) Comeback player: Low hanging fruit is Quero, and I agree. I'll go with Wilken as my bounceback. Never going to hit for much average, but I think he'll hit many dingers this year, and perhaps even a few in Milwaukee. 5) Struggles/Disappointment: Luke Adams. I think velo is going to be an issue that finally catches up to him in AA with his swing mechanics. 6) Brewers end the season with 6 top 100 prospects, including two in the top 20. I'll go with Made, Bitonti, Pratt, Payne, Yophery, and Letson. Made and Bitonti as consensus top 20 guys.
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Did you copy my idea? I’ve only posted about this like 3 times since the season ended? Lol But yes they should seeing as it’s about as like for like as they’re going to get replacing Adames. Caveat being that Bichette play 3B.
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- bo bichette
- tyler black
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So, if my math is correct, works out to an average improvement of .4 WAR. That would equal to a baseline projection of between 4-4.5 WAR for Chourio next year. Which is very fair imo and non-coincidentally around what you would get if you would combined Steamer's projection of Chourio's bat (119 wRC+) with ZiPS' projection of his glove (+7 DEF). If you extrapolate his numbers from June on as a young player who suddenly figured MLB pitching out (142 wRC+), you would get something resembling an 80th percentile projection of around 5.5-6 WAR The last two categories do demonstrate that development isn't always linear. Chourio could take a slight to medium step back. I just don't see how you project it like ZIPS does considering the company he is in here (like half HOFers or future HOFers and most multitime all stars) and the fact that he's in the upper half of this cohort. It's also not like there's a major discrepancy between his peripheral stats and his actual stats which would possibly foreshadow regression. Relying on minor league numbers like ZiPS seemingly does here is super misleading imo when dealing with uber young, highly tooled up prospects like Chourio who were pushed aggressively throughout the minors.
