UpandIn

I think it's a Rodgers thing...and that's especially obvious on the RPOs...like the 4th down play where Myers drove his man 3 yards into the endzone and Dillon would have had a walk in TD. I don't even remember the 3rd down play or if they opened a hole, but it was basically the same play. Rodgers said he gets a choice of 2 plays about 40-50% of the time and then he gets the option to audible 100% of the time. Mercedes Lewis said about 50% of the playbook is Rodgers, 50% is LaFleur's. I thought we saw a pretty clear contrast last year when Love played. They blitzed the hell outta him and the OL did a terrible job picking it up, but just the look of the offense. We weren't running inside zone out of shotgun on 4th and short. That's a very distinctly Rodgers preference it would seem. Looking at MLF's last year and...only year calling plays before GB, he ran the ball more than he threw it. Shanahan runs the ball 1st. They certainly ran the ball well in Atlanta. I think that Rodgers is a very smart QB. I think he's one of the best at off-schedule plays, I think he's...one of the most talented to every play. But it's also obvious he's...very confident he's smarter than most people in every room and that he pre-determines where or what he's doing on quite a few plays. At least it seems like it is. This has been a very frustrating season. -Still think the Packers can get the OL to gel and...IDK, maybe find a WR to stretch the field who can actually say on it so they can stretch the field. I'm pretty confident the defense will be fine as the seasons goes on. I'd really hate to think where this team would be without Jones, Gary and Clark. I'd add Jaire, but...they're hardly using him like you'd expect an elite CB to be used, something I expect MLF will take a bigger hand in when the time comes as he's done in the past. The good news is there doesn't appear to be any dominant teams...so hopefully we can get our **** together like the Rams did last year and go on a run.

Yeah, that doesn't make the Jets some type of powerhouse. Did you see what happened in that game? Or who was playing QB for the Dolphins?

I've mentioned this, but I've also seen quite a few others. I think it's just a general idea leaning into what the Brewers tend to do. They want players who are versatile. With Adames at SS, Turang at 2B, or even if you don't have Adames, it'd still make more sense to get Black games at 1st, 3rd as well as his more familiar position of 2B. I'm far less concerned about "value" at a position in terms of power #'s. If you put someone who can hit ~.280/.365/.430 but they only hit 15 HRs...so what? Willy could hit 30 at SS, you could get good power numbers from CF/RF or elsewhere. It feels like it'll work itself out, but the Brewers should be proactive so they're not sitting there with a viable prospect ready to play, but he's blocked at 2B/CF. Not exactly a pressing issue at the moment, but as we get a clearer picture next year of who'll be around and who may not be, he'll hopefully have enough opportunities in Biloxi and then Nashville to get some play there.

I could really see the Brewers going into the 2024 season with 3 top ~20 prospects including the #1 prospect, a top ~10 in Quero and then...who knows with Misiorowski. Obviously insanely premature to speculate, but I don't think it's a real stretch with the first two and with a kid coming out at 6'7 190 already firing 102 and a "hellacious" 86 MPH CB, those are the types who tend to do well on prospect rankings for good reason. There are also a few other obvious players who could find themselves pretty high on prospect lists, but those 3(and maybe Wiemer depending on what 2023 looks like in the OF in Milwaukee+his season in Nashville) have very loud tools and they are putting them to very good use. Of course...seems unlikely he'll be playing much OF for the Brewers...and we've had perpetual problems filling 1B since Prince left and 3B since...I guess Aram? He was always productive offensively and...for the most part reliable(though not exactly Brooks Robinson at the Hot Corner). 3B doesn't sound like it's his ideal position, but if he can hit and has good hands, a less than stellar arm isn't a deal breaker(as Luis Urias can attest to). Ideally it'll be Devanney and then Black can slide in at 2B or 1B, but that bat+his walks should play all over the place.

The Braves are going to getting EVERY good young player to sign. They've got a young AS Team, now equipped with 23 year old ace who Spencer Strider...who comes with a FB that sits in the upper 90s. Nearly 14K/9 and a 1.83 FIP. Also signed RF-Acuna Jr 8/100+2 Options @17M per coming off ROY season signed from ages 21-30(2028) 2B-Albies-7/35 + 2 options at 7M coming off a 4.1 WAR season at 21 team control until age 30(2027) CF-Harris 8/72 +2 option years @15/20M locking him up from his age 22 to age 31 seasons(2032) 1B-Olson-8/168+1 Option year@ 20 coming off 5.8 WAR season, ages 28-36(2030) 3B-Riley-10/210+1 option @20 coming off 6.1 WAR and in the midst of 6.3 WAR season26-36 (2023) SP-Strider 6/75+1 option @22 off a 3.8 WAR locking him up from age 24-30(2029) Just accumulating this type of young talent is...impressive in and of itself, but locking them all up to the respective deals they have, adding team control before any of them get to that point where you know the last couple years of a deal are going to be those garbage years...they are building a team to compete with Cohen's bottomless wallet in the NL East. Also, 9 of their top 10 prospects are pitchers. So having 5 of their 9 roster spots filled up with All-Star caliber players, a young ace, a top 50 prospect at SS currently up(incidentally, the best position player who's due to become a FA this year) and then almost all pitchers. Sure hope a couple of our current young prospects both justify AND are willing to sign some deals similar to these. Also, glad we got Ashby and Peralta locked up for a while yet.

Oof...what's the line about stats? "Lies damn lies and statistics." That Pads lineup without Tatis is much better than ours. That lineup with Tatis?

Right. If you wanna hit a reset and trade Burnes/Woodruff/Adames and just stock the system, then fine, start the season with Frelick, Mitchell and Wiemer. And we'd STILL be starting Yelich and he'd still be getting ~600 PAs if he performed as he did this year. If you're not unloading all 3...and I suspect we keep the two aces unless we're blown away(even then, Attanasio may step in on this one) then it's just a terrible idea. Even the best prospects struggle. As good as Mitchell was last year, he was 4 games away from an OPS under .700 and he struck out ~42% of the time. We've got great prospects. We're not going to just sit Yelich and he doesn't have to beat them out. There are ALWAYS enough at bats in an OF for good players to get enough ABs, especially with a DH(and 1B). Plus, Frelick can always just...move over to SS since at some time he donned an IF glove....

1-Pitchers are getting shorter deals. He has 2 years of FA left, so he'd be selling out 3 FA years. How many years do you think he'll be looking for? Gerritt Cole was an outlier. Pitchers signing 6-7 years are not doing so with 4 years of service time AND getting anything close to market value. He signs a 5 year deal, he'd be 32 at the end of it. He'd have no problem getting another big deal if he's still an elite pitcher(Which I think he will be). As for his value relative to Woodruff...I think people really underestimate Woodruff. War per year the last 3 years(so not including Burnes blow-up season). Burnes 2.1, 5.6, 4.1 Woodruff 2.1, 5.6, 2.7 So they've been pretty much equal. This past year Woodruff missed some time and then came back and pitched great down the stretch (which has been a reason actually cited for not extending Burnes by someone). He's also got more Playoff experience. Small sample, but 40 IP and a 1.90 FIP. Burnes has 15 IP and a 1.90 FIP. https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=woodrbr01&type=p&player_id1=burneco01&sum=0&request=1 That's again, not to say Burnes isn't better, but...just how much better and how long do you think he gets? 2-Adames is coming off his age 26 season and put up a WAR of 4.7 or 4.4(depending on which you like). He was objectively above average offensively DESPITE having a below average season for him. I don't see why this tank is coming. He had a walk rate over 10% last year(21) for the Brewers. Baez has a 4.7 for his career. He was a potential MVP candidate after trading for him...and now we don't want him? I mean...sure, I agree, EVENTUALLY, at some point, age will impact his offense and his defense. He'd be my #3 priority because he's just likely to get/want a longer deal. But if they signed him for ~5 years and he was willing to play 3B and SS, I'd be thrilled with that. Disappointed because it'd probably mean we didn't or wouldn't sign one of the two aces, but he's close to a 5 WAR player. They're not real common.

It'd be...so much better, but he's so hell bent on staying and they can make the Rockies basically chip in and help pay for it. The Rockies are paying 20 million MORE to Arenado or STL. STL if he opts in, Arenado if he opts out. So if Arenado opts out and he can get 5 years 175, that's really a 5 year 200M for him. Right now he's getting 5/144 I believe. So St Louis would be stupid to not go to him, offer maybe 20M signing bonus, 20M guaranteed for 2027(he has a 15M salary that year) and then do something with 2028, add a team option for...IDK, 45M and a buyout at 10M. Maybe he gives them a "hometown discount," and they just add 40M to his existing contract(which again, includes the Rox paying out 4M of his deal each of the next 5 years). So he doesn't get as much as he could, but he seems to love the righteous, indignant clowns in St Louis, so that seems the most likely outcome to me. But I really would love to see them lose him.

That what you get when you hire an OC hoping the QB come with him...and he doesn't. Hackett hasn't even called plays in his career save for a couple games with the Jags...I think. So maybe he'll get better. And I'm sure the organization just bought by the Walton's who just spent about 250M on Wilson, they'll be very patient with him.

Isn't it pretty important to be in agreement on what a replacement level player is in order to have a discussion that's entirely focused on a *stat centered on exactly that? Anyway, Yelich, more than anyone on this team stands to benefit from the new rules regarding the shift. Teams were shifting ~24% of the time vs Yelich in 2018 and up to almost 53% this past year. For a guy who hits a lot of hard ground balls/line drives to RF. Probably why his worst 3 years in terms of BABIP have been the last 3(though his BABIP this past year was still good enough). The question should also be asked...to the OP, who is Yelich going to have to win back a spot from and who would he platoon with? Yelich hit .~.270/.380 as a leadoff hitter in ~400 PAs We didn't sign him to be a leadoff hitter who can't hit for power, but if he can keep that up, the Brewers can certainly get by paying him 22M a year. Not that they have a choice, but as long as he does what he's done the last couple years, it's not going to be this giant albatross(If/when he starts to decline more...then it'll be an albatross).

Well...it's not really, but the title of this thread is "sunk costs." So what his contract is...based on your own thread, is completely irrelevant. It's purely about the player he is right now...and that's where you contradict the point of the post. If you want to talk about how he's underperformed expectations in the first year of his contract extension, sure, lets do it. But again, by definition, you're saying ignore the price, just worry about Merit, he's making the money either way. So based on what Yelich did last year, he SHOULD be a full time starter, he doesn't need to "earn his spot" back. He also should play less OF and hopefully get that old 1B glove back out. The Sample Size does NOT lie. Yelich has not been an MVP and almost certainly won't be. He IS still a very solid hitter.

Yes. He's no longer slugging nearly .700, but he still walks a ton leading to a very high OBP and...that's exactly what you're looking for atop your order. I like Frelick as much as anyone, but I'm not sure Frelick does project to be a better leadoff hitter. Walk rates under 8% in AA,~9% in AAA while Yelich was still at ~15% last year and ~14 this past year. I'm sure Frelick will get there, but I think you're conflating Yelich being overpaid with Yelich not being useful. He IS a sunk cost...in that we've committed money to him and that money is already spent. He is also still a very useful player. Just not the one we'd hoped he'd be. They do though. Saying he hits them all right at 2B...is obviously hyperbolic. He hits a lot of hard GBs to the right side of the IF....where they've BEEN playing 3 IFers the past several years. Now there will be 2 and they can't stand in the OF. So yeah, hard hit balls to an area where there HAVE been 3 IFers and will now only be 2, that will obviously help him.

If we stay healthy, Ingles could be an ENORMOUS pickup for us. His style of play, his skill set, all of it suits what we need perfectly. And he's somehow always been a good defender despite not being the most explosive athlete. I think Carter can also play a much bigger role. I was excited they brought him back. Especially vs certain teams, he could play a very big role(GSW for example). Equally as important, his minutes in the regular season, taking minutes of Holiday's plate while picking up the defense, with 2 of the big 3 getting older, the more important that becomes. I also think Nwora will get more than garbage time. Bucks could have saved a whole lot of money by letting him walk, but they're spending ~11 million this year to keep him. Maybe it's to help match salaries in a potential trade and add a little upside, but with Middleton and Ingles on the shelf to start the year, I could see 25+MPG for him. I also want to see Ibaka and if he looks any better a year further removed from the back surgery. Maybe he's a little more mobile, add something to the defensive end? Probably optimistic, but bringing him back was a big of a surprise. Outside of Ingles, no major questions with this team. I'd like to see Giannis workload lightened as well as Jrue and Middleton, but the Owners have REALLY committed to this team. That 100K bonus Jrue got the year they won the Title is going to hurt that much more this year with the repeater tax now kicking in, but...there hasn't been a move we haven't made yet because we couldn't afford it. No 1st round pick this year as NO has it straight up, so I'll say 58 wins, 2nd seed to Cleveland and I think our biggest threats will be Cleveland with all their length, Boston and...the Nets. Too much talent. They should be the prohibitive favorites AGAIN with their talent, but Simmons won't even shoot in the pre-season, so that still seems to be an issue.

Yeah, trash move by Draymond. Nice punch...vs a guy you have about 6 inches and 60 pounds on. And it's not like Poole was in his face, he just didn't back down.

Yeah...Russ is cooking, but despite pretty good ingredients(to really beat that metaphor to death) and yet food still looks like prison slop so far;

Yeah...there are a lot of trades that end up one sided, but not many that are so obviously one sided from day one. That Archer trade is as close as I can think of. Two young major leaguers with big upside who were both highly rated prospects and then Baz who had a live arm. The other ones turned out bad, but Arrieta had a ERA of ~5.50 with Baltimore...who can't seem to turn a elite pitching prospect into an elite pitcher despite having a number of them in the last ~decade. Dylan Bundy, Matusz, Gausman. Yelly, we gave up highly rated prospects at least. All busts, none of them did anything for the Marlins, but at least you can say they got prospects back. The Marlins probably weren't getting much more back for Yelich. But the Rockies? With the money they paid up front and then the money to mitigate the potential he didn't work...and they got not one blue chip prospect for him. The Montreal-Cleveland trade was worse, but at least is was done in order to try to win. The Arenado trade didn't net the Rockies prospects AND they didn't save money. Either way, the Cards are an average team if not for those two gifts from the NL West...but at least they went out and were aggressive. And we can take some solace in knowing the Cards traded two aces for Ozuna when they sent Alcantra and Gallen.

They progressively started to get smart...didn't tell the best players until they retired and then their intellect peaked 20 years ago? But sure, it's...an "element of my religion." My religion is apparently observing area's the Brewers had issues with that...we're not supposed to talk about? That tracks!

They progressively started to get smart...didn't tell the best players until they retired and then their intellect peaked 20 years ago? But sure, it's...an "element of my religion." My religion is apparently observing area's the Brewers had issues with that...we're not supposed to talk about? That tracks!

MLB K rate has jumped from 8% in just the past 8 years, but I think you nailed it. I don't think anyone decided it was "smarter" to not play situational baseball. In fact...again, Kolten Wong talked about how he liked the "freedom" he had in Milwaukee that he DIDN'T have in St Louis. How he was expected to shorten up with 2 strikes in STL. Feels like these are kinda the reasons people are excited about Frelick in particular, but also Mitchell, Black, Ruiz. Because we've had SUCH a stagnant offense. One that goes station to station. That DOESN'T mean that was our only problem this year or the main problem this year...but it was a problem that all came to a head when we couldn't get a runner in from 2nd in a must win elimination game in back to back extra innings.

MLB K rate has jumped from 8% in just the past 8 years, but I think you nailed it. I don't think anyone decided it was "smarter" to not play situational baseball. In fact...again, Kolten Wong talked about how he liked the "freedom" he had in Milwaukee that he DIDN'T have in St Louis. How he was expected to shorten up with 2 strikes in STL. Feels like these are kinda the reasons people are excited about Frelick in particular, but also Mitchell, Black, Ruiz. Because we've had SUCH a stagnant offense. One that goes station to station. That DOESN'T mean that was our only problem this year or the main problem this year...but it was a problem that all came to a head when we couldn't get a runner in from 2nd in a must win elimination game in back to back extra innings.

I think I could come up with a dozen guys I'd rather protect in the rule 5 alone(ignoring all the other players who'd require a 40 man spot) before I'd even care about another unreliable catcher. I'm sure he'll have a big year next year given our luck. We sign him to platoon with Omar, he gets suspended, misses half the season and then bails on us. Meh, oh well...

This is exactly it. It's as much situational awareness, baseball intelligence, call it what you want, as anything else. A HR in the 2nd inning with a man on 2nd base is great, a strikeout...it's just an out at that point. Not being able to get a runner in from 2nd with 0 outs and your season on the line in back to back innings...kinda summed up our season. It wasn't just one problem, it was several problems. As for Ruiz at 2B, I have no idea what he looks like there. I haven't watched him. But I do know he's pretty clearly our 5th rated OF prospect and we've have pretty successful teams with Ricky Weeks and Keston Hiura at 2B. I don't think it's a crazy idea to get Ruiz some games at 2B if he's in Nashville to start the year. But again, I'm not pretending to know definitively if he can be a viable option to occasionally at 2B or not. Tough to do without...again, actually seeing him play it, but it'd be nice if it was at least an option.

Kiiinda the point. You think it's ludicrous or based on a cursory reading of scouting reports from 2019, you think he probably can't play 2B? Do YOU think that based on anything you've seen or are you just telling everyone what readily available scouting reports have said about him not having soft hands. SD played him at 2B up until 2020 when they were planning on playing Abrams at SS and Rosario at 2B on the same AA team while also having Tatis Jr and Crowenworth at the MLB level. They had the ROY runner up and a generational talent they paid 340M to playing up the middle with two elite prospects on the same team as Ruiz. So your observations that people can't talk about seeing if Ruiz can play 2B come from...scouting reports that are a couple years old that pretty much sound like Chase Utley or Jeff Kent's? And he probably can't/won't play 2B, but it ain't just "Ryan Braun to SS, Sal Frelick to 3B."

The past 50 years, huh? LOL...no, I don't have a choice. Batters and hitting coaches haven't gotten "more stupid," and eschewed "shortening," and putting the ball in place with less than 2 outs. Where are you getting that from? You realize not every team is all or nothing like the Brewers, right? That guys like Boggs, Gwynn, Altuve, Ichiro, Jeter...I mean, countless others, they all played in this time period as well? The same time period when pitching has improved with deeper bullpen, more platoon matchup's, and a dozen other reasons, but when exactly was this conscious decision made that we're going to swing for the fences with 2 strikes, lets than 2 out and RISP? I missed that Memo? But thank you for telling me what my little league coach told me in Little League doesn't apply?