wiguy94

I think it's entirely plausible that some people are turned off by the extra movement in his swing. We've seen over and over again players with unorthodox swings do well in the lower levels but as you get closer to the MLB they begin to struggle. There's also questions about how high his ceiling is and prospect lists will almost always defer to ceilings especially for prospects in the low minors. I have Areinamo #20 on my list with the only position players ahead of him as Quero, Made, Pratt, Yophery, Black, Payne, Boeve, Adames, Bitonti, Wilken. I gave Wilken the benefit of the doubt for his rough season, but outside of Wilken, I don't know how you can have Areinamo over any of those other position players.

Typically plate discipline improves with age so in that sense Lara should be alright. I mean Frelick hadn't even played a professional game at Lara's age and Lara just spent an entire season at A+

He basically just can't hit LHP outside of Coors which is the only downside to him in addition to his pricier contract. I can easily see him being a 3 WAR player if you limit his PA against LHP and get him out of Coors. I know everyone always assumes that Coors is a hitter's paradise and it is, but it's not considered enough that Rockies hitters play half their games in a park where pitches move differently than the other 29 parks in the MLB which isn't exactly ideal.

Need to keep in mind Bregman is also a FA. If Astros re-sign him then that takes them out of the running. Yankees might not want to take on more salary if they bring back Soto considering he probably gets over $500M. If it comes down to Royals, Tigers, Brewers then I definitely could see all 3 teams wanting the Rockies to eat a bit of salary.

Saying McMahon is Monasterio offensively is so wrong. Outside Coors the last 4 seasons these are McMahon's underlying numbers. .240/.324/.417 expected slash, .324 xwOBA, 91.1 Avg EV, 46.4% hard hit rate, 9.9% barrel rate Monasterio's numbers in his MLB career. .238/.318/.366 expected slash, .304 xwOBA, 88.6 Avg EV, 35.9% hard hit rate, 6.6% barrel rate McMahon's numbers outside Coors the last 4 years look even better against RHP. .250/.338/.455 expected slash, .344 xwOBA, 92 Avg EV, 47.9% hard hit rate, 12.3% barrel rate McMahon has crushed RHP outside Coors the last 2 years .247/.342/.461 actual slash, .347 wOBA .269/.361/.514 expected slash, .375 xwOBA, 92.3 Avg EV, 48.3% hard hit rate, 15.3% barrel rate

I don't see many teams that could use McMahon as much as us. Especially good teams. Here are teams who finished above .500 where McMahon would be an upgrade: Yankees, Astros, Royals, Detroit (depends on if they want Vierling to be a full time 3B), Seattle.

Volume certainly helps but look at Rivera's cWPA compared to the Top 10 in saves all time. Rivera was about as untouchable as it gets in the playoffs.

I mean it's getting off two-thirds of his contract and getting a decent prospect haul in return. I don't see why a team looking to get off salary wouldn't entertain that.

They ate $50M when they traded Arenado. Don't know why they wouldn't eat $15M to get a better return for McMahon.

Yes please. Black + 2 secondary pieces for McMahon with the Rockies eating $15M of the $44M guaranteed to McMahon over the next 3 seasons.

10/19 AFL update (apologize in advance for the wall of text) Brock Wilken went 0-3 with a BB, SO and was picked off 90 EV, -12 LA reached on an error 103 EV, 32 LA flyout Juan Baez went 1-3 with a R and SO 75.5 EV, 15 LA single 96 EV, -3 LA groundout Luis Lara went 1-3 HR, RBI, R and SO 98 EV, 24 LA home run 88 EV, 8 LA groundout Ryan Birchard went 2.1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 5 SO with a wild pitch. 63 pitches, 34 strikes, 48% whiff rate, 32% CSW, 51% zone rate. 26 FB - 93.9mph, 2215rpm, 20 IVB, 7 HM, 5 whiffs, 3 called strikes, 38% whiff rate, 31% CSW 19 SL - 82.5mph, 2587rpm, 1.7 IVB, 16.7 HM, 3 whiffs, 2 called strikes, 50% whiff rate, 26% CSW 11 Cutter - 87.8mph, 2404rpm, 6.6 IVB, 4.5 HM, 3 whiffs, 2 called strikes, 50% whiff rate, 45% CSW 7 Curveball - 78.8mph, 2602rpm, -15.9 IVB, 7.3 HM, 2 whiffs, 0 CS, 100% whiff rate, 32% CSW Will Childers went 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO. 30 pitches, 16 strikes, 67% whiff rate, 40% CSW, 37% zone rate. 16 FB - 95.0mph, 2391rpm, 17.8 IVB, 4.9 HM, 5 whiffs, 3 called strikes, 100% whiff rate, 50% CSW 8 Cutter - 87.1mph, 2477rpm, 0.9 IVB, 3.5 HM, 3 whiffs, 0 called strikes, 38% whiff rate, 38% CSW 6 SL - 84.1mph, 2512rpm, -7.5 IVB, 3.8 HM, 0 whiffs, 1 called strike, 0 whiff rate, 17% CSW Mark Manfredi went 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO. 5 pitches, 3 strikes, 60% CSW, 80% zone rate 4 Sinker - 92.9mph, 2422rpm, 16.5 IVB, 10.5 HM, 0 whiffs, 3 called strikes, 75% CSW 1 SL - 85.8mph, 2350rpm, 4 IVB, 1 HM, 0 whiffs, 0 called strikes, 0 CSW

Yankees have 2 generationally good hitters on their roster. Among players with at least 4000 career PA, Juan Soto's 158 wRC+ is 12th all time and Judge's 173 wRC+ is 3rd all time. I honestly cannot imagine how big his contract will be this offseason being a 26 year old FA. I'm thinking 12/$420M might even undersell him. He might get $500M.

Stanton hitting a ball 446ft with a 19 LA is just insane stuff.

Dodgers just totally punting the game today by leaving Flaherty in there to get shelled is crazy in a playoff game.

If we just go by xwOBA by week in September. 9/1-9/7 - .355 xwOBA 9/8-9/14 - .405 xwOBA 9/15-9/21 - .355 xwOBA 9/22-9/28 - .282 xwOBA

Contreras also did not have a bad September. 124 wRC+ for the month. 148 wRC+ the final 3 weeks. 133 wRC+ the final 2 weeks. 68 wRC+ the final week. So this idea he had a bad last few weeks is totally fictional.

Hell no the Brewers should not sign Austin Hedges. This can't be serious. A 12 pitcher staff is just not remotely feasible for an entire season. Please do better.

Fangraphs sorts by positions not overall. The link I showed comes directly from the Fielding Bible website. Don't believe me, here's Varsho's individual page on Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/daulton-varsho/19918/stats?position=OF

Turang's 22 DRS was 3rd in the MLB behind Varsho's 28 and Duran's 23 per Fielding Bible's website: https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard

I say send Black plus a couple smaller prospects to Colorado for McMahon with the Rockies eating about $15M of his future salary. He has some good pop. Has hit RHP really well outside of Coors the last few years. He's an elite defensive 3B with positional flexibility to also play 1B.

Elvis Peguero still has another option year according to Fangraphs.

The young player to trade is Tyler Black. Send him and a couple other pieces to Colorado for McMahon with the Rockies retaining about 33% of his remaining salary.

Just to make it clear, I want the Guardians to win the WS. I want the Dodgers to win the NLCS.

It's okay for you to cheer for whoever you want! I'm personally rooting for the Dodgers to win this series because I want the "beat the Brewers in the playoffs and you go to the WS" crap to be done with

His home-road splits aren't as bad as you'd think. I did a deep dive on this after Jack and Spencer mentioned him as a possibility on the podcast. Here are his home/road with RHP/LHP platoon splits over the last 3 seasons. Home vs RHP - 87 wRC+, .332 wOBA, .331 xwOBA, .437 wOBACON, .435 xwOBACON Road vs RHP - 114 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .353 xwOBA, .426 wOBACON, .455 xwOBACON Home vs LHP - 105 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .344 xwOBA, .442 wOBACON, .417 xwOBACON Road vs LHP - 39 wRC+, .225 wOBA, .259 xwOBA, .285 wOBACON, .339 xwOBACON He's been good against RHP outside of Coors with very good underlying numbers. He can't hit LHP to save his life outside of Coors. I think he could be a great addition if you view him as a 500 PA a year guy sheltering him from LHP a bit and using him as a late inning defensive replacement at 3B/1B. I'd be willing to give up Tyler Black and maybe a couple lottery tickets if they were willing to eat some of McMahon's contract. Black can grow out his beard and be their Charlie Blackmon replacement. But also like you said it's just impossible to know what to expect trying to trade with the Rockies.