SF70

Agree with your notes, in fact if I could re-do my list I’d probably take Hedbert out and replace him with Small, but anyhow, nice job on your list. My one complaint would be having Cameron Wagoner ranked as low as you did, Middendorf as well. After watching him pitch in the AFL championship game — count me as impressed with his stuff.

1. Sal Frelick—superstar player on the way. Eventual 20+ HR/25 SB .320/.400/.475 GG LF. 2. Jackson Chourio— if he keeps hitting thru AA/AAA, 11 year extension please. 3. Joey Wiemer— 30/30 potential, GG RF. 4. Jeferson Quero— elite defense, above average hitter, controls the running game — will be a huge weapon. 5. Brice Turang— solid 3-5 WAR SS. 6. Jacob Misiorowski— command improved at instructs. Fills out and sits 99, touching 104, 2800rpm SL, big CB, potential ace. 7. Robert Gasser— above average pitches with above average command. A cutter away from a potential TOR starter. 8. Garrett Mitchell— biggest wild card prospect in the game. Could fail — could superstar. 9. TylerBlack— another elite BTB hitter but without a glove. 1B? 10. Eric Brown— good glove with speed & pop. 11. Robert Moore— scouts rave about his defense. 9 HR’s down under impressed me. 12. Jansen Junk— impressed with his video’s. Brewers lab will turn him into a nice # 4 starter. 13. Abner Uribe— reliever has to be special for me to rank him this high. His FB/SL combo screams dominant closer. 14. Daniel Guilarte— Brewers exited, I’m excited. 15. Cameron Wagoner—97+ with a good breaking ball. Hoping they start him. 16. CRod (P)— on his way to mid-rotation potential. 17.) Cam Devanney— maybe the most underrated prospect in the system. Wouldn’t surprise me if he’s the teams starting 3B in ‘24 18. Stiven Cruz— stuff impresses. Hard to hit. 19. Hedbert Perez— still only 20. 20. Freddy Zamora— no idea what happened to his defense last year but if he’s fully healthy has the talent. This is the best top 11 prospects I’ve ever seen for this team — 53 years and counting. Underrated farm. Keith Law has this one right.

I also wanted Burnes traded this offseason, but I’m guessing they were quite disappointed with their feeler trade options. I also think they should not sign any of the 3 to extentions, but if they do sign 1 I hope it’s Woodruff. Where I differ the most is in thinking the team doesn’t have the talent in the farm to continue to contend post-big 3 with just draft-picks. I believe they do. And with 2 more drafts and 2 more minors seasons I’m confident they could even have a couple of starters ready to rotation, besides Gasser. I don’t think the team will want to take a step back in ‘24, instead choosing to go for it again with the big 3.

I also wanted Burnes traded this offseason, but I’m guessing they were quite disappointed with their feeler trade options. I also think they should not sign any of the 3 to extentions, but if they do sign 1 I hope it’s Woodruff. Where I differ the most is in thinking the team doesn’t have the talent in the farm to continue to contend post-big 3 with just draft-picks. I believe they do. And with 2 more drafts and 2 more minors seasons I’m confident they could even have a couple of starters ready to rotation, besides Gasser. I don’t think the team will want to take a step back in ‘24, instead choosing to go for it again with the big 3.

Ok, so when does the team trade the big 3? Assuming they are in contention the next two seasons.

Disappointing. This is going to keep some deserving stateside play held back in the DSL.

I don’t think it makes any difference since based on him saying he expects to begin the year at Nashville, my guess is the team has already told him that’s where he’ll be to start the year.

I just don’t see the team trading any of the big 3 if they are in contention. Maybe an extension on Woodruff or Adames, so my guess would be — A Woodruff extension and the other 2 held for the picks and all-in to win.

Agree on it not being in this FO’s MO, but I believe 3 recent happenings might have changed that. The hit the team took for the Hader trade likely eliminates a Burnes trade at one of the next 2 trade-deadlines, when the return would be the highest. Of course they would need to be in serious contention for that to be the case. Also, teams just aren’t as willing to part with their top prospects during the offseason when teams can sign FA’s to improve and hoard their prospects. Finally, this team has a good thing going with Tod Johnson & co, having had some really good draft success the last 3 years. Having 3-4 picks in the top 35 players (Woodruff & Adames as well) I believe wouldn’t scare them one bit. Of course this all depends on the team being in contention.

Let’s get his next 2 peak years to help us win, thank him for his incredible pitching, and happily take the 31st pick in the ‘25 draft.

Montfort spends above his revenue, the problem has been his choice of GM’s.

The revenue gap between the large and small-markets is the issue, not the small-market teams, like MKE, not spending more money on payroll. Some of us think we know that this team can spend more money on payroll than they do but the reality is we don’t. We have no idea of the teams non-payroll expenses. The infrastructure this FO has rebuilt costs money and most are oblivious to this reality. What happens in the short-term if/when Bally’s goes bankrupt? Will this team get all their money they expected when they signed their agreement with Bally’s? Even if they do, when? Historically, MA is not a SM outlier with regards to payroll, which is what matters to me.

Siedler has decided to lose money for a few years in hopes of winning a WS. Great for him and the city. Big difference in wealth between $800M and 3B tho, I will say. Not sure I can ask Attanasio and his investors to lose $70-$100M a year for 3 years in an effort to go all-in like Preller has asked Siedler to do.

Cranes abhorrent non-apology, apology over the sign stealing punishment showed his true lack of character. I’m guessing Stearns stays clear of the jerk now that he has made his way and should get his pick of jobs around the game over the next couple of years.

I think he gets hurt a smidgen because of the shift limitations, especially as a starter. But he’s proven he can pitch to good numbers out of the bullpen so, yes, the value returned would need to make it worth trading him. I like Junk’s recent improvement (according to scouts) and I also like getting Bryse Wilson out of Pittsburgh’s PDS and into ours. Between the two the odds are decent we get a nice starter option, and or, multi-innings bullpen option. Then there’s the enigma of Ethan Small and his lost release-point. I’m pretty sure they’ve been working on that fix in Arizona this winter. They also have Robert Gasser who could give them multi-innings out of the bullpen sometime after S2. These are all potential multi-inning pen arms and that’s not even including Aaron Ashby.

I get it. Most will probably agree with you. I think the bullpen has enough options that Houser won’t be missed if they trade him.

That same track record can help us acquire a player that helps the team more than a 7th starter.

Houser should be a trade candidate. He rank’s no better than 7th on my Brewers ‘23 starters depth chart. 1. Woodruff 2. Burnes 3. Peralta 4. Lauer 5. Miley 6. Ashby 7. A)Houser B)Junk C)Wilson 10. Small 11. Miller 12. Alexander Then post S2 we can add Gasser. I don’t see much difference between the 3 I’ve got slotted in the number 7 position, so they can trade Houser any day now and I won’t lose a minutes sleep. I actually like Junk & Wilson pitching out of the pen more than I like Houser pitching out of the bullpen.

They say 12-18 months recovery time for a pitcher. I’ve yet to see even a relief pitcher effective at anything before 15 months and a starter longer than that. A starter usually takes at least 2 years to get his velo & command back to pre-injury form.

Coming back from TJ for a starter to be 100% takes 2 years.

If Anderson’s shoulder is finally healthy, this is a good signing, His regression/poor performance pretty much coincides with his shoulder injury. I’m a develop the rookies guy, but Turang and Wiemer were always going to be kept down until the 3rd week of April at a minimum, now it’s looking like mid-June, unless Anderson sucks/injured again.

I agree with most of the points you bring up in your post. The one point you bring up that I disagree with is getting a “king’s ransom” for our big 3 during the offseason when teams hoard their top prospects, especially their big-league ready ones, and can go the FA route to improve their teams. Look at this offseason so far — very few big trades made with top prospects and star players. I see that continuing the rest of this offseason, and pretty much every offseason. The trade-deadline is a different story, but this team will be, in all likelihood, smack dab in the middle of contention and more likely to buy than sell. If it’s no “king’s ransom” with return offers then they will more likely keep them for another run and if in contention, hold the 3 for the draft-picks. This team has upped not just their IFA talent procurement as you pointed out, but have also have done the same thing domestically. With this being the case this teams farm is as deep and strong as I’ve ever seen it. A lot of good things can happen with 2 more good drafts and 2 more years of team prospect development, especially on the pitching front.

While it might take 4-5 years for the young prospect starters to completely develop as big-league starters, they should have some ready to face big-league hitters at least out of the bullpen late in the ‘24 season. Im expecting Peralta, Ashby & Gasser to all be mid-rotation starters or better by the ‘25 season so in my mind they can sign a veteran FA #4 starter and let the rookies battle it out for the 5th & 6th starters. Adding a big-league ready starter or two with trades of Burnes and Woodruff next offseason doesn’t help next year’s rotation.

No way the Red Sox give up 6 years of their best pitching prospect for that return.

Outside of Ashby & Small, who both regressed to varying degrees, the SP in the organization as a whole made enormous progress, especially at Wisconsin, Carolina and in Arizona. The team has 2 full development years ahead to add to Peralta, Ashby, Gasser and possibly Small. With the team deciding to hold the big 3 this offseason, the team will be good enough in all likelihood to be buyers at the trade-deadline and not sellers, so that pushes the decision to trade-off 1 or more of the big 3 to next offseason. And since the offseason teams have the option to hoard, and go the FA route to improve, that makes getting enough prospect capital returned, especially big-league ready prospects difficult to achieve. The team could be cutting payroll this season because they want the potential to arby all for another all-in next season with the team expecting to QO the big 3 for the draft-picks.