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SF70

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Everything posted by SF70

  1. SF70
    Lots of valid points you make, especially with Friedman holding his best prospects, but we’ll see what happens this offseason and if he’s maybe feeling a tad more pressure to build a postseason team vs a regular season team, and if that’s how he feels, Miller, Stone and Vargas won’t trump Burnes in the playoffs of ‘23.
  2. SF70
    No, just trying to point out the Dodgers have issues next season with their rotation, especially once the postseason gets here. And a prime-aged ace, without an injury history would help the Dodgers move through the playoffs, which I’m guessing is Friedman’s focus this offseason.
  3. SF70
    Ok, maybe they don’t “need” Burnes, but no team in baseball needs to win the WS as much as this team, no matter how random the MLB postseason is. And it wouldn’t be 4 prospects back, it would be 3.
  4. SF70
    Urias is an ace. So would deGrom IF (big IF) he was signed, but still would have injury concerns. Kershaw is another year older, and gets hit in the postseason by good hitting teams. Gonsolin is a good regular-season starter, but wilts in the postseason. May should be stronger next season, but will have his innings limited. What if the Dodgers don’t really want to spend money on a 40 year old Verlander, who for whatever reason also wilts in the WS. Maybe they also don’t want to pay Rodon for 6-7 years with his injury history.
  5. SF70
    Don’t you think the Dodgers are feeling pressure to win a 162 game championship season World Series? I do. 106 games, 111 games, on and on, but no WS title outside of the pandemic “season”. Burnes is frigging from LA for goodness sakes, grew up a Dodgers fan. Don’t you think they probably believe they can extend him? A Burnes acquisition won’t preclude them from signing a Diaz or improving their bullpen or adding a Judge or Correa or anyone they really really really want. Once the LAD find out Burnes is in play, I’m guessing their desire to acquire Burnes would be quite high.
  6. SF70
    “Don’t try to tell me differently.” Okey Dokey, have a good rest of the evening.
  7. SF70
    Ashby dominated in ‘21, regressed some in ‘22. Pepiot’s SR’s have him with average to below average control, and because of that say he’s at risk of being a multi-inning bullpen arm. A starter that doesn’t need a year or two of big-league development is more the outlier.
  8. SF70
    They do if they want to actually win a WS. Mays best case is still limited innings. We all know how talented he was prior to blowing-out his UCL, but not everyone’s stuff comes all the way back, just look at Thor. Kershaw still has elbow concerns and 130 innings seems like a high estimate to me. Gonsolin is a good regular season starter, but does have an injury history now. Lots of question marks for a team with mounting pressure to win a WS with a 162 game regular season.
  9. SF70
    Kershaw is quite the unicorn, being statistically the best starter of this century. And look how long it took Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta to establish themselves as starters. 1-2 years is absolutely a reasonable timeline. Look at Ashby, and his stuff is nasty. Starters take time.
  10. SF70
    Couldn’t make it out of the second inning vs SD in their playoff series this season. Injured the month of September as well. Terrible postseason pitching from him — 14.2 IP 15R 9.2 ERA. Kershaw is another injury ready to happen. May might be ok, but also might need more time to get right from his TJ, and they will very likely limit his innings. I could see the LAD going hard after Rodon, but not Verlander at 40, especially with his WS stats and bidding vs Cohen for deGrom doesn’t seem Friedman-like. The Dodgers do need Burnes because they are sick of hearing how great of a regular season team they are the last decade with only a pandemic WS.
  11. SF70
    They need one of that trio AND Burnes.
  12. SF70
    Both have barely 20 AAA innings, so at least a half-season away if everything goes right, then 1-2 years of big-league development, so by ‘25?, then May might still need the year to build-up after his TJ and Buehler mid-season’24 or even ‘25 before he’s 100% back. For all of those reasons, along with Gonsolin getting torched late in the year and postseason, the Dodgers seem really short of veteran frontline starters the next 2 seasons. 6-8 years of Burnes solves their biggest weakness, imo.
  13. SF70
    I don’t think the Dodgers will want to wait for Miller & Stone to develop, especially now that Buehler is out until ‘24. Acquiring Burnes and extending him (which I’m guessing they have a leg-up vs most teams due to Burnes growing-up a Dodgers fan and being from LA), gives them an ace throughout his prime years. Asking for Buehler plus the 3 prospects is just way too much. I’m good with Miller, Stone and Vargas.
  14. SF70
    And these would be the types of offers Arnold would get if he shopped Burnes this winter. A prime-aged, bona-fide ace with 2 years of control — yeah, I’d say so. Give me Miller, Stone & Vargas from the Dodgers. Makes too much sense from both teams point of view. Dodgers would probably believe they could extend Burnes, they won’t have Buehler until ‘24, so this gives them the ace they need to pair with Urias & May for the postseason next year. Timing works for them better than waiting until ‘25 for Miller to develop. Brewers need a big-armed starter that can rotation by ‘24 and develop enough by ‘25 into a mid-rotation or better starter, with potential for more by ‘26. Miller fits that bill. And Stone, while not quite the prospect of Miller, has potential to be a mid-rotation starter, and possibly by ‘25 as well. Vargas with his 60/65 hit-tool RH bat can be our 1B for the next 6/7 years.
  15. SF70
    This is why Burnes should be traded THIS offseason vs next. This offseason, it’s highly likely as part of the return, a top 5-8 pitching prospect would be part of the return, maybe even another near top 15 as well depending on the team. I’ll take my chances with that type of arm/arms and this teams PDS.
  16. SF70
    This is why Burnes should be traded THIS offseason vs next. This offseason, it’s highly likely as part of the return, a top 5-8 pitching prospect would be part of the return, maybe even another near top 15 as well depending on the team. I’ll take my chances with that type of arm/arms and this teams PDS.
  17. SF70
    I wouldn’t hate a Woodruff extension, mostly for the reasons you’ve given, but I prefer to trade Woody next offseason for his younger replacement. If we’re going to extend anyone, I want it to be Adames. At least we’d get most of his prime in the extension.
  18. SF70
    I wouldn’t hate a Woodruff extension, mostly for the reasons you’ve given, but I prefer to trade Woody next offseason for his younger replacement. If we’re going to extend anyone, I want it to be Adames. At least we’d get most of his prime in the extension.
  19. SF70
    Just don’t think it’s good idea for this SM team to extend a pitcher with most, if not all of his contract years post-prime. I’d prefer the trade route with the return being a big-armed starter prospect. This team has shown they can develop starting pitching, so I’m just going to trust they can continue to develop the starters, especially when they have a big arm to work with.
  20. SF70
    Just don’t think it’s good idea for this SM team to extend a pitcher with most, if not all of his contract years post-prime. I’d prefer the trade route with the return being a big-armed starter prospect. This team has shown they can develop starting pitching, so I’m just going to trust they can continue to develop the starters, especially when they have a big arm to work with.
  21. SF70
    No way Baltimore gives up the #1 pitching prospect in baseball, the top pick in last years draft, their top LH starter prospect and another top 75 prospect in Westburg for any package, let alone Burnes plus plus plus. The Woodruff extension could happen, but Adames and Lauer are too low. Houser is just not worth extending. The Renfroe trade seems fair.
  22. SF70
    Turang is not an elite defensive SS, BA has him graded at 50 field and 50 arm, while MLB pipeline has him at 60 field and 55 arm. My eye-test from watching him play approximately 10 games in-stadium is above average field with a slightly above average arm, so no Adames. Keep Adames at SS, put Turang at 2B and have Urias at 3B. Turang’s range at 2B and better arm than Urias will payoff with the shift limitations, and should also payoff with more DP’s with Turang having a must faster release than Urias.
  23. SF70
    Turang is not an elite defensive SS, BA has him graded at 50 field and 50 arm, while MLB pipeline has him at 60 field and 55 arm. My eye-test from watching him play approximately 10 games in-stadium is above average field with a slightly above average arm, so no Adames. Keep Adames at SS, put Turang at 2B and have Urias at 3B. Turang’s range at 2B and better arm than Urias will payoff with the shift limitations, and should also payoff with more DP’s with Turang having a must faster release than Urias.
  24. SF70
    Too risky for this SM team. If the team doesn’t want Wong back it’s an easy non-tender decision. I believe that ends up being the decision the team makes. With the shift limitations, defensive range and arm strength will be much more important this coming season, and even if the team believes Wong’s defensive yips were an aberration, his rapidly decreasing speed and arm strength aren’t.
  25. SF70
    Wiemer could have been bothered by his thumb injury for longer than he let on. So, I’m more interested in his time with Nashville when we know he was 100% healthy. Mitchell has only played in 160 professional games, including 28 with the big-club, so looking forward to him hopefully staying healthy so we can see what he can do over a full season.
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