SF70
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Everything posted by SF70
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Free Agent Starters Who Could Provide Value at the Brewers' Price
SF70 replied to Tim Muma's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Either of Eflin or Stripling would work at $9-$11M/year, along with Jose Quintana at $12M/year. Move Houser to the bullpen if the team holds onto Burnes/Woodruff. If the team trades one of the aforementioned, sign 2 of them. The team has to have veteran SP depth if they want to challenge for a playoff spot, which I believe they can do even if they decide to move 1 of Burnes/Woodruff. -
Kwan is a good comp for Frelick, absolutely. Speed, defense and BTB all similar, with Frelick stronger and more potential for future power. Hoping Frelick is in the lineup OD. I’d probably have it Frelick—Mitchell—TT, L to R, and bring Wiemer up late April to replace TT.
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Why all 4 Dodgers prospects which is a big overpay by them? Take Pepiot or Stone out of that deal and it makes it more likely to happen, don’t you think?
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What we get is his prime-years performance, which, imo, is definitely worth paying extra for to avoid paying for post-prime performance.
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I would probably do a Burnes extension for 5/130, but I don’t think he’d sign for that. A pitchers prime is at least 1 year younger than a positional player. 24/25-28/29 vs 25/26-29-30.
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Turang’s ascension in the box came in the second-half of last season — it’s called prospect development.
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Positional player extension’s are less risky than pitcher extension’s because of the potential for catastrophic pitching injuries. A TJ or serious shoulder injury, best case, knocks away 2 years of that pitcher being 100% the pitcher he was prior to injury. And a Woodruff extension would be for all of his post-prime years, which this team probably shouldn’t risk imo. For every Wheeler there’s a deGrom, an ace that can’t stay healthy.
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Then you might as well forget an Adames extension completely, since an elite offensive and defensive year would price him out of our reach. Extending Burnes is a pipe-dream. An extension for Woody pays him for past-prime years. I think the safest and most realistic extension would be Adames for two reasons. Age & the fact he’s a position player. Even an 8 year extension gets us the majority of his years in-prime. But obviously we should try to do less years. I’d love to see a 4 year deal at $85M. Go with more up-front, 15-20-25-25. Adames would still be young enough to get a large contract post-Brewers and we’d very likely get his best seasons.
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Turang should be facing big-league pitching for the next step in his development. I was hoping it would have been in a full-time role at 2B, starting late April, but the team looks to want a little bit more of a sure thing, so it appears it will be Wong. Still hoping for a Wong trade (Boston, Seattle, Philadelphia, among others), but if not a utility role post service-time cutoff date, would be tolerable.
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The priority for me is getting the extra year of service-time on Turang, so if they go with Turang as a utility, he should be held in Nashville until the last week of April.
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Larger bases, new pick-off rules, pitch-clock, limited shifting, will lead to speed being much more important starting OD of ‘23. Stolen base % will skyrocket for teams with the speed to take advantage. And then there’s the stress this puts on the pitchers and how it will affect their pitching. Having an 80-grade runner, a 70-grade runner, and 2 60 graders, not including Yelich, all potentially in the same lineup, all with high on-base potential, should cause havoc on the bases and to the opposition pitcher.
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
SF70 replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
This is great news, if it comes to fruition, for those of us that want Burnes sold to the highest bidder for prospects that should add the young, controllable talent critical to this teams future success. -
His 3B defensive metrics, while still negative, outperform my eye-test . I see stiff hands and poor footwork with inconsistent throws to first.
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I know Brosseau rakes vs LHP, but the thought of him playing in the field anywhere but 1B isn’t a pleasant one.
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
SF70 replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Absolutely trade Williams. His value will never be higher and this could be the backup plan to get some of the big-armed Dodgers pitching if Burnes is held. No Vargas though. Miller & Pepiot works, so does Stone & Pepiot & Vesia. Upper minors big-armed starter prospects is what this team needs above all else, imo. With Diaz off the market and competition high for the likes of Suarez, Montero & Chafin, and the Dodgers needing a healthy closer, Williams could be their answer. -
Then the team shouldn’t extend him. Age 32-35 years this team shouldn’t be paying for.
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Higher AAV with less years for Adames. 4 years, $75M. 10-15-25-25. All prime. He then hits FA at 32. This team shouldn’t be paying for past-prime performance on extention’s — as a rule, with very few exceptions.
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Ok, we keep Tellez and his power, which until Wiemer establishes, the lineup can use for sure.
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Quintana at $10-$12M per year on a 2 year deal, I’d do, and they absolutely could afford him. Remember I’m ridding the team of Renfroe and Wongs money as well as Burnes, and if he goes to LAD with Vargas as part of the return, I’m trading Tellez as well. So I can sign Quintana, Chafin, and a catcher with the $31M saved.
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I don’t really like the Braves pitching prospects outside of Muller, but if they would do Kyle Wright with Muller and Contreras, I’d probably do that deal. 4 years of a #2/3 like Wright, and 5 years of Muller/Contreras accomplishes both of contending now and extending contention into the future.
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I would trade Burnes to the Dodgers this offseason for Miller, Stone & Vargas. That’s a fair return, and one that actually has a chance of happening, imo. Trying to add Pepiot in addition likely keeps that deal from happening. Having all 3 being close to big-league ready, is critical to the extension of contention timeline and fixes the organization’s biggest weakness— potential impactful upper minors starting pitching. Hold Woodruff this offseason, add a veteran starter like Quintana, and try to extend Adames. Less risk with a positional player, plus the majority of contract years would still fall within his prime. Woodruff, Peralta, Quintana, Lauer, Ashby and Houser make up the 6 man with Gasser, Small, Miller, Stone at AAA to start the year. Post S2 some can pitch out of the bullpen. Next offseason the team can trade or hold Woodruff and Lauer depending on the development of the young pitchers.
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5 years — $102M.
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Edwin Diaz just signed a $102M contract with the Mets. Cohen giving the finger to his fellow owners.
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You could very well be right, Williams probably brings back more separated from Burnes, but to get back 4 arms the caliber of Dodgers arms we’d get into our system where 3 of them likely help this team before the end of the ‘23 season is impeccable timing and makes the trade too good to pass-up for me. Which is also why I disagree with your “long rebuild” theory. The new rules make the timing of our rookies playing next season impeccable as well. The high floor, speed and defense helps offset some of the development pains in the box, imo. The money savings from no Burnes, Renfroe, Wong, and Tellez can be used to add a veteran starter, and re-make the bullpen until Pepiot, Gasser, Miller and Stone are pitching out of it. It should also allow for a strong 6-man rotation when it’s needed. Adding those arms also makes trading Woodruff and Lauer next offseason less painful, with a potential ‘24 rotation of Peralta, Ashby, Houser/Gasser/Miller/Stone/Pepiot. I think the team will extend Adames but if not, they can also trade him or keep him for the draft pick. Which they could also decide to do that with Woodruff as well, because of the arms acquired from the Burnes/Williams trade.
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No Mitchell. He’s untradable at this point for me. But I do Burnes & Williams for: Vargas & Stone & Miller & Pepiot & Bruns. Stockpile as many young, big-arms as possible and go make a 6 year run unlike any this franchise has ever made.
