Jake McKibbin

It makes some sense, especially Verlander, as a TOR upside even if fit for October. Neck issues really derailed him in 2024 but that type of problem usually isn't long lasting, and a full offseason should have him ready to go. You can see the significant upticks in his fastball TJstuff+ when healthy being over 110, and three plus pitches overall with strong command. He's also shown he can pitch 162 innings as recently as 2023. I would like this from the Brewers, though I wonder if the Tigers reunion holds some sway for both to finish their careers

That would be separate altogether with regards to the IFA pool, which they'll have already allocated. They can't transfer funds into their IFA pool beyond what they've already been allocated save in a trade.

The Milwaukee Brewers have rotation depth coming out of their ears as we turn to 2025, but the top end looks more shaky than shut down. One of these veteran, Cy Young award-winning arms may push them over the edge in the regular season and the playoffs. Image courtesy of © Steven Bisig-Imagn Images / © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images Freddy Peralta’s 2024 didn’t live up to the hype of his second half in 2023. Brandon Woodruff is returning from a career-defining shoulder surgery, and talented upside arms like DL Hall and Aaron Ashby are struggling to find their way. The top of the Brewers rotation lacks the combination of reliability and quality you look for in a team contending for the playoffs. Nestor Cortes has provided both at times in his career, most notably in 2022; however, unless the Brewers can find some way to get more ground balls or swing-and-miss from his arsenal, he has a limit to how high he can go. In short, there are enough questions over health and performance that adding one more player, despite question marks over health, could be well suited if they intend to chase hard in 2025. They have enough depth to cover should it go horribly wrong, but the options are two former Cy Young-winning, bullish competitors, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Neither is likely to command the expensive payrolls of their heyday and should be available on one-year deals, but what they can add could be instrumental to the 2025 Brewers. On the other hand, both players are in the twilight years of their careers and will want to go to a contending team with a strong chance of making the playoffs. How Do The Brewers Make Room? The Milwaukee Brewers payroll limitations are at the upper end of their limit, so acquiring either Scherzer or Verlander would require offloading some salary. Per Sportrac, Scherzer is projected for a one-year deal at $15.2 million, while Verlander is expected to land in the $10-$15 million range. Creating some room and mitigating a little of the heartache would require making a space in the rotation as it stands currently, where the Brewers have Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Nestor Cortes, Aaron Civale, Tobias Myers, DL Hall, and Aaron Ashby with proven MLB experience as starters while Chad Patrick, Connor Thomas and even Jacob Misiorowski push to get some games as swing men or more. Aaron Civale has attracted interest across the league because his final year of arbitration contract is approaching $8 million. He has shown signs of returning to his Cleveland Guardians form rather than the Tampa Bay Rays version. Offloading that contract and likely acquiring some prospect capital in the process would allow the Brewers to stay within the realms of their internal salary budgets while adding an arm and a personality that can elevate a team. The Brewers may attempt to trim further salaries around the edges to limit the damage to a net of around $5 million. Still, all MLB teams have some wiggle room around their salary budgets. With the Brewers finalizing their investment into their minor league structure this season, they may have a little more cash to throw at their MLB payroll, or perhaps they will restrict themselves at the deadline by having fewer funds available for acquisitions at that point. Either way, this isn't an astronomical ask, and they should be able to accommodate the extra salary within their current means. One of the biggest hangups about bringing in an aging pitcher is the rapid decline seen in the “stuff” in their arsenal. Thanks to Thomas Nestioc, or “TJstats,” we can access some tried and tested grades on the pitching arsenals of both Scherzer and Verlander. Let’s take a look at why either might fit the Brewers model. Why Max Scherzer? As you can see, in 2024, Max Scherzer retained an above-average fastball and slider (the cutter seems to be a misidentified hard slider). These two pitches, both of which he commands impeccably, have been the bread and butter of his long and illustrious career, and despite returning from herniated disc surgery in his back, he still showed similar stuff levels to his 2023 numbers where over a full season produced an expected ERA of 3.28 (85th percentile). When he got hit, he did get hit hard in 2024, but Scherzer's slider and curveball had strong swing-and-miss rates, while the rising fastball was more than effective. Even in a slightly down year for Scherzer, he provided a sub-four ERA with above-average strikeout rates and a fantastic walk rate. With Milwaukee's outfield defense, he no doubt has a chance to outperform those numbers even further with the Brewers in 2025. He presents a higher likelihood of avoiding injuries. As a result, he has a higher floor than Verlander, without quite the same high level of performance in recent years. Still, his avoidance of walks and competitive nature will work brilliantly within the Brewers' current clubhouse. With personalities like Scherzer and Woodruff in the Brewers clubhouse, the young talent coming through will learn much about succeeding in the major leagues. Why Justin Verlander? Verlander struggled with many injuries in 2024, first with a shoulder impingement, then later with a neck problem that he recently confessed to returning too quickly from. His performance wasn't that of 2023 Verlander by any stretch, but the underlying stuff was still there: In fact, his fastball graded out better in 2024, but the issue appeared to come from leaning more heavily on his curveball and changeup in-season, as well as a lack of command and some poor luck (partially his fault from a total lack of ground balls). His hard hit rate of just 32.6% was exceptional (92nd percentile), but when he did get squared up, it got hit hard and aerially, resulting in the high ERA. I could easily argue that Verlander, back to full health this off-season, provides a higher upside than Scherzer and has demonstrated as such as recently as 2023 with a 3.22 ERA in 162 innings. He doesn't have the same strikeout quality as the Verlander of old, but his metrics looked better in 2024 than his startling 2023 numbers; plus, he's likely to come in closer to the $12-$13 million mark for a one-year deal. Either of these two veterans would provide a presence, stability, and nous on which the Brewers rotation could benefit from gambling. Verlander especially has shown that, with health, he can be as dominant as ever on the mound, and both would likely receive boosts from the outfield defense compared to that of the Rangers and Astros. Both have expressed a desire to come back and pitch in 2025 and have the raw stuff to succeed. If the goal is to win a World Series, perhaps it's a gamble the Brewers ought to take. What do you think, Fanatics? Can you see the Brewers looking to trade Civale and open a spot for one of Scherzer or Verlander? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! A special thanks to TJstats for allowing me to use his models to write this article. His variety of models is well worth a Patreon subscription and, at the very least, a social media following for any of you who enjoyed the graphics above! View full article

While sounding like a comedic duo, Durbin and Dunn are in the driver's seat for the third base job next season. Will the Brewers feel secure with their depth, or will they chase another lottery ticket before spring training? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Caleb Durbin and Oliver Dunn share some fascinating similarities and some distinct divergences in their playing styles. Each of them recently won the Arizona Fall League Breakout Player of the Year Award: Dunn in 2023, and Durbin in 2024. Each possesses startling speed on the basepaths; both are surprisingly effective on the infield dirt; and they each have good-to-great plate discipline. Despite this, their approaches at the plate are chalk and cheese. While Durbin is a contact-oriented hitter who scraps his way on base, Dunn has some of the best bat speed in the majors and can hit for devastating power—if he could only make more in-zone contact. Splitting a right/left platoon matchup may be on the cards for the 2025 season, but could there be another wild card thrown into the mix? Dunn's back was an enigma in the 2024 season. After barely a whisper was heard about it after he went down in June, he resurfaced playing some winter ball in the Dominican Republic, where he seemed disinclined to get the bat off his shoulder. Dunn barely swung in his 26 plate appearances there, logging just two hits, four walks and nine strikeouts. To say this will be indicative of Dunn in 2025 is unfair, but it is concerning. The common thought after his early-season efforts was that he needed more time in the upper minors, and skipping Triple A was too much of a leap for him. He has the talent, surprising defense, and power to be a big-league contributor, but without some adjustments, it's hard to see that coming to fruition. As you can see below, if it isn't a meatball, Dunn Struggles to make any form of contact: Thus, it's possible that (although Durbin's high floor and Dunn's high ceiling seem well-matched) relying on Dunn could be problematic, at least in the short term. When you combine the results from his 2024 debut with a checkered injury history, it's hard to hold much faith in him. The Brewers do have Andruw Monasterio on their roster, although last season saw him relegated to a bench role with sparse appearances. Monasterio saw some catastrophic defensive frailties exposed and, although he was loosely passable at the plate, he didn't provide a whole lot there, leading to negative bWAR on the season. Durbin is exciting as a fresh face in the Brewers camp: hard, gritty and with a variety of ways in which he can impact the game. He found some pull-side power at Triple A last season, but his 10.6% home-run rate on fly balls is unsustainable for a player with such low exit velocities. Whether he's truly an everyday player over a long stretch remains to be seen. However, with his speed, contact and plate discipline, even 10 home runs would enable him to be a capable offensive threat—if his defense can remain up to scratch alongside that. Taking this into account, it seems as though the Brewers will want at least one more infielder in their mix to vie for the third-base role, either as a platoon for Durbin (who had reverse platoon splits in 2024) or on the bench. It seems as though the Brewers, who value that spring training competition, will want at least one other MLB-capable player in the mix. What do you think Brewers fans? SHould the Brew Crew chase another third baseman, either in the mold of an everyday starter such as Ryan McMahon, or a backup infielder with some intriguing characteristics like Lenyn Sosa or Maikel García? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Funny, I actually thought the same when editing it and tried to even out a little! So I appreciate the feedback if I maybe didn't go far enough in correcting that. The floor is high with his bunch of tools, but whether he can be an everyday contributor depends on the pull power remaining next season. 56 games is a small sample size, and the AFL is a homer heavy environment, but at least he's a capable bench bat with utility experience in the Infield and outfield. He could very much profile as Nick Madrigal esque if he can't keep that aerial pull rate, which isn't ideal. Some power is a requirement in the majors

The Brewers have traded Devin Williams to the Yankees in exchange for Nestor Cortes and a relative unknown called Caleb Durbin, who may just be the jewel of the trade. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images Caleb Durbin is a 5’6" 24-year-old infielder from Lake Forest, Illinois, with a fascinating array of tools at his disposal. Strong bat-to-ball skills, great plate discipline, and burgeoning power are complemented by solid defense and a fantastic base running instinct that gives him the makings of a player who can impact the game in a variety of ways. While on the surface, the return for Devin Williams looks underwhelming, it must also be true that the Brewers see a lot of value in Durbin's profile. Durbin is small. Very small. One might even have projected him to be, at most, a utility player until recently, but he’s managed to come into some power at the plate at just the right time. Since his promotion to Triple A last season, Durbin worked hard to put the ball in the air with more regularity and found some real success with 11 home runs in his last 56 games overall between Triple A and the AFL. He’s not likely to be a home run machine by any stretch in the majors, but he’s showing he could be a regular double-digit home run threat. That's big news for a player who, over the course of 2024, had an average exit velocity of just 83 mph in Triple A. He accessed the home run surge from a strong ability to pull and elevate the ball simultaneously, which, as we've seen from profiles like Isaac Paredes, can succeed in the big leagues. Synonymous with the Brewers these days is a strong approach and swing decisions, which Durbin has in spades. Using his small frame and reduced strike zone to good effect, Caleb Durbin had a walk rate of 12.5% in Triple A in 2024 with a strikeout rate of under 10%. He struck out just five times in 112 plate appearances in the AFL. Then there’s the base running. Durbin set records in the AFL this season with 29 stolen bases in 30 attempts, blowing past the previous record of 24. While fast, Durbin isn't of the lightning quick variety like Brice Turang or Garrett Mitchell, but his instincts, reads and timing are top of the table. Defensively, he seems to profile best at second base but has experience in 2024 at third base and the outfield. Erik Longenhagen said his defense looked fine at both infield positions, and it's expected the Brewers would like to see him at third base next season. Perhaps most fascinating to the Brewers is his approach to baseball. Pat Murphy waxes lyrical about the players on his roster, and their young, fearless hunger that drove them to success as a unit last season. At the winter meetings, when asked of any one he'd like on his squad, he said "give me someone who's hungry". That is Caleb Durbin. The Yankees had released a lot of chatter from Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone about Durbin being a strong contender to open 2025 as their starting second baseman. Some of this may have been smoke to increase his trade value, and the low exit velocities earlier in the year are a worry despite the recent uptick in his extra base results. He will need to be more than just a weak contact, low strikeout player at the plate to garner regular playing time, and it remains to be seen if he can impact the ball more effectively in 2025. Nestor Cortes and his flashy antics on the mound will no doubt garner much of the attention surrounding the trade, but given his own recent struggles, it may just be that the Brewers are extremely high on Caleb Durbin. He's a ball player, hungry and toolsy and may just be on the rise. If he can continue tapping into that power production at the plate, he may exactly the player the Brewers need to continue competing through 2025. View full article

I wasn't sure if I could reference him given his distance from the majors and how much is still to develop, but his arm certainly showed up well in the stats during the DSL this season. He'll be interesting to follow

None I would be overly confident about

Jon Morosi reported that the Brewers are one of the remaining parties vying for the South Siders' strikeout machine. Amid interest from big markets and NL Central rivals, how far would the Brewers go to get their man? Image courtesy of © Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images Garrett Crochet is expected to cost just $10 million over the next two years. He produced some of the gaudiest strikeout numbers from a starting pitcher in recent memory this season, his first in that role. The White Sox are determined to offload him, and there’s no shortage of suitors. The Chicago Cubs, the Cincinnati Reds, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox are all heavily in the mix, although the Yankees' farm system might not be strong enough to pull it off and the Red Sox are not currently viewed as aggressive. On Monday morning, Jon Morosi has confirmed the Brewers are one of the teams still in the running: Why Go After Garrett Crochet? In short: Crochet is an ace. When healthy and on the mound last season, despite playing on one of the worst baseball teams in modern history, Crochet was box office. His arsenal plays off a four-seam fastball that averages 97 mph with over seven feet of extension and over 2500 RPM, allowing it to miss bats at over a 30% clip—an overpowering figure, for a fastball. In fact, all five pitches he threw last season had whiff rates of over 30%. Crochet finished 2022 as a four-seamer/changeup/sweeper pitcher, but in his long rehab process, he added a cutter that linked his arsenal in such a way as to make him truly devastating. As you can see above, the difference between the movement on his four-seamer and the sweeper is vast, but sometimes, that makes it too easy to distinguish them early. Having a pitch that bridges the gap was his original aim, but instead, the cutter became so effective (tunneling beautifully with his four-seamer) that he almost ditched the sweeper entirely. Throwing two pitches a combined 80%+ of the time in games usually isn’t a recipe for success in MLB, but Crochet’s four-seamer and cutter were utterly devastating, to the tune of an expected ERA of 2.85 and 209 strikeouts in just 146 innings. And yet, he may still be getting better: In August and September, Crochet unveiled a new pitch while increasing his sweeper usage to boot. His sinker alone had an: xWOBA of .136 Whiff Rate of 32% Average launch angle of -44° Average exit velocity of 78.5 mph All of this in a small sample size of 50 pitches, but in developing a sinker to work off his four-seam fastball and returning his sweeper into the cutter and four-seam mix of his early-season work, Crochet’s performance took off to new heights. Bear in mind, he was working in shorter spurts toward the end of the season, but he had thrown 161% more pitches in 2024 than any other season in his career. In September alone, where you can see his more balanced arsenal, his strikeout rate rocketed up to an incredible 42% and his xWOBA dropped to .261 after a fairly poor August by the standards of the rest of his season. Giving the Brewers a fastball mix of this caliber alongside a sweeper that misses bats consistently and a 90+ mph changeup would be like handing Santa Claus to the Grinch in handcuffs. They work so well with this arsenal, and given health, it’s easy to see how he could excel with them. Health is a big concern, and injuries have plagued him ever since the White Sox rushed him to the majors without a single game played in the minor leagues. Having had both Tommy John and shoulder surgeries, this will drop his value somewhat in a trade, especially with just one full season as a starter under his belt. Still, a Brewers rotation in the 2025 playoffs headlined by Crochet is a markedly different beast than one headlined by Freddy Peralta, and to give themselves a chance to win a World Series, there’s no doubt Crochet adds some real punch. What Would The White Sox Demand? Having Hagen Smith and Noah Schultz among their top prospects has the White Sox looking for reinforcements elsewhere in their farm system, particularly the infield, which makes the likes of Jacob Misiorowski less likely as a target. Using the more hitter-centric parts of the Brewers camp, a possible trade may look something like this: Tyler Black A likely centerpiece of the trade, Black’s path to Milwaukee is currently blocked with the corner outfields well manned. However, the White Sox have a multitude of openings and, more than that, Black’s style of play is the type a struggling club needs. Hard, gritty, with pull-side power, grinding at-bats and good plate discipline, Black can be the kind of player to produce consistently and set the tone for the rest of the White Sox lineup, being MLB-ready and still having six years of club control remaining. Luke Adams A hitter with supreme power and an on-base fiend, part of which is derived from the plunking he took off wild pitches, Adams is an athletic third baseman with speed, tons of raw power and a great eye at the plate. He shows a high upside, especially if he can continue to work on his actions at third base, and potentially be more aggressive in the strike zone. Or; Luis Lara One of the best defensive outfielders in the Brewers system, Lara showcased surprising exit velocities in Arizona during the fall league. Standing at 5-foot-7 with a swing comparable to that of Ronald Acuna Jr.(although I’m in no way comparing the two in production), Lara has impressed scouts wherever he’s gone and is expected to ascend next season in the Brewers rankings. His strong floor and improving exit velocities at just 20 years old showcase a good future. Here’s the kicker… the above isn’t enough when you look at Crochet’s market. It’s too hotly contested. For a pitcher expected to cost a mere $10 million over the next two seasons, the Brewers will have to go large, and it may involve one of their top two prospects: Jeferson Quero A two-time minor-league Gold Glove winner for some ostentatious displays behind the plate. A cannon of an arm and a real feel for working with his staff. There’s a strong belief that Quero can tap into at least league-average production behind the plate for the Brewers. There is some uncertainty about how his arm will recover from major shoulder surgery last offseason, but he’d be an attractive piece for the White Sox, and his ability to impact the ball suggests he may be a top-echelon catching prospect. The Brewers have William Contreras for another few years and have a knack for developing catchers in-house defensively, so Quero is more likely to be a long-term loss than a short-term one. However, catchers with his defensive chops at just 20 years old are as rare as diamonds. Or; Cooper Pratt Noted as the steal of the draft in 2023, the Brewers' 6th-round pick has now cracked the top 100 on MLB Pipeline, with a bat that showed burgeoning power toward the end of the year—compounded by a minor-league Gold Glove at shortstop, where he’s absolutely excelled. Pratt’s makeup, baseball IQ, approach and defense make him a highly attractive prospect who will stick at shortstop and has the ability to provide average or better offense on top of strong defense at the key defensive stronghold. The Brewers have more infield prospects than catchers in their system currently; maybe makes Pratt more expendable than Quero. In any case, both are top-tier talents. The Brewers have the farm depth to go after someone like Crochet. The question is whether or not they’re comfortable leveraging that strength to gamble on someone who has had injury problems. One more elbow operation and the value of the trade goes up in smoke for the Brewers. On the flip side, as evidenced by the Juan Soto contract, the market is ever more skewed in favor of the big-market teams, and the Brewers need to find high-upside talent for as low a price as possible. Doing so requires exceptional drafting, or high-leverage trades. This may fall into the latter. Remember, nobody worries much anymore about the prospects the Brewers traded away for Christian Yelich. Maybe it's time again to push those chips onto the table. Can you see the Brewers dangling either Cooper Pratt or Jeferson Quero for an arm like Crochet? Do you think he’s worth that much prospect capital? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

I agree on the defensive side in that that's what I'd be most wary of, however the underlying numbers do suggest a significantly better season hitting wise that was foiled by some poor luck. As mentioned above, his WoBA - xWoBA was among the worst in the league and his late season production has really stepped upwards. The Brewers preach swing decisions better than almost any organisation, and I can see him learning something on that front with the Crew. The right handed bat is showing signs of power production in the off season, and at the very least for what shouldn't cost a lot, you're getting infield cover in emergencies with a bat that can spell Turang against lefties, something that was an issue last year with Monasterio providing both poor defense and limited capabilities in the batter's box

The White Sox front office is in as much disarray as their on-field product, and with an under-the-radar infielder in their midst, can the Brewers pry him away? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Lenyn Sosa was one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball last year, ranking fourth in (wOBA-xWOBA) and showing considerable growth in his ability to handle offspeed and breaking pitches as the year went on. Despite being engulfed in the ruinous White Sox Environment (see Miguel Vargas for further info), Sosa had an expected slash line of .278/.307/.419, while playing the majority of his season at second base. He finished very strongly in September, and all signs point to a potential uptick in production in 2025. A Horrific Environment In 2024 It’s difficult to quantify just how demoralizing it can be to play in an environment like that of the 2024 White Sox, whose performance was often so bad that their worst-in-MLB-history 121 losses are almost insufficient to account for their woefulness. The mental acuity required simply to drag oneself out of bed and compete, hard, is no small task within a team that felt rudderless and uninspired the whole year. We saw players like Vargas struggle massively upon joining the White Sox, while supposed catalysts Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert Jr.failed to show any sign of a spark. Lenyn Sosa’s performance, at least in terms of his expected numbers, certainly deserves some acclaim. Then you factor in the coaching and guidance that he would have received. Pitchers in the organization were quoted as saying the direction they were given was often as simple as “your curveball plays well down in the strike zone”. With such insightful input, you can imagine that the guidance for a young infielder wasn’t ideal, either, and as such, there’s a lot more in the tank than he showed last season. Adapting To The Majors Takes Time As we saw with Jackson Chourio, who was on the quick side of things, players take time to adjust to the major leagues. The jump from Triple A to the Show is massive, especially for younger players. It can take patience. Sosa looks to be almost fully adjusted now, and in particular, he’s begun to take on the fastball: Sosa has started punishing mistakes over the heart of the plate, and as someone who doesn’t take his walks, some slugging ability is essential for his career to progress. An above-average hard-hit rate and average exit velocity are pleasing to see, and the Brewers' environment may encourage much more development. He managed to log a .964 OPS in September to finish out his season, and has continued his progress in the offseason. Sosa leads all winter leaguers with over 20 games played in production, with a 1.216 OPS that includes eight home runs and 20 extra-base hits. The slugging is beginning to come around for the youngster, and if the Brewers can swipe him away now, they may find a bargain that can really impact their 2025 season. What would the Brewers need to work on? Sosa’s defense isn’t particularly strong at second base or over at the hot corner, but with his bat on an upward trajectory, he’s probably around the same sort of competency as an Andruw Monasterio—but with a bat that profiles a level above his. He’s not the most athletic player, but he isn't error-prone and will make plays within his wheelhouse despite below-average range. Sosa is also highly aggressive at the plate. Despite an above-average strikeout rate, he chases an awful lot, partially due to a longish swing, but it’s an approach that can definitely be tempered with the Brewers who put a high value on swing decisions within their organization. It may be enough to temper any enthusiasm for him, but he did have a walk rate higher in 2022 after spending some time at varying levels, and with the right organization, they may be able to help him construct his at-bats with a little more patience. In doing so, he may even find himself able to target those pitches against which he can really do damage. Sosa could profile at either second or third for the Crew, but as a platoon partner for Brice Turang, he could be especially strong. There's some thump to his game, and he might tap into more of it if he can just escape the White Sox. He’s only accumulated a year of service time, but his low surface-level numbers and inconsistent defense mean that he shouldn’t be too costly. Given the White Sox's needs, you’re probably talking about a prospect in the 10-15 range of the Brewers farm system and another from the top 30 to acquire Sosa, without any real need for the prospects to be close to the majors. He’d be an inexpensive pickup, but he showed in September and in the winter leagues that he might just be coming into the type of pop that can carry his profile. The Brewers need some infield depth that can actually contribute off the bench, ideally right-handed, and Sosa's profile is very tempting in that role. What do you think of Lenyn Sosa? Can you see the Brewers making a move for the White Sox infielder? let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Oh absolutely, it's a general weakness across MLB. The issue with Mitchell is he struggles to even foul off these pitches, and is whiffing at a reasonable amount on meaty middle-middle fastballs too. All the needs is to be able to foul them off and wait on something more to his liking, he has a good eye at the plate to go deep in an at bat, and eventually he'll get a mistake fastball or something to get the pitcher over and change his timing. No one throws 12 straight fastballs, but until he can do that more consistently it will be a worry for him, and the strikeout rate will hamper his ultimate potential in the Show

It’s common knowledge now that Garrett Mitchell has a problem with high fastballs. What exactly about his swing makes it so challenging for him, and how can he take steps to mitigate its damaging influence on his at bats in 2025? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images Garrett Mitchell is one of the most exciting players to watch on a baseball field. His high octane approach with the sheer athleticism he possesses gives him the five tool potential, and to date his on field production has been impressive. In his first 365 plate appearances, Mitchell has accumulated almost 3 fWAR with a .264/.343/.463 slash line featuring 13 home runs for a WRC+ of 123. Combining that with some exceptional speed and reads in center field, and surely you have the makings of a franchise center fielder for the forthcoming years… right? Well there is one nagging issue with Michell. Despite the surface level production, his underlying metrics aren’t quite so pure. Although it has decreased year on year, his strikeout rate for his career sits at 34.2% with a hefty dose of batted ball luck as evidenced by his BABIP and Weighted On Base Average (WOBA) compared to his expected WOBA. The main reason for this is his struggles with the high four seam fastball. You’ll have heard many Brewers experts referencing it, including our own Jack Stern and Spencer Michaelis on the Brewer Fanatic Pod, and it’s something opposing teams haven’t attacked as harshly as you might expect just yet, but that’s likely to change next year. Mitchell has one hit against a fastball in the upper third of the strike zone this year (ironically a home run against Hayden Birdsong) while attempting to use his keen eye at the plate to avoid chasing above the zone, to take high fastballs early in counts and on either a fastball lower down in the strike zone or a breaking pitch left in zone. He even swings through middle-middle meatballs with more regularity than most MLB players, Both of these he can do damage against, but against those pitcher’s with the command to pound the top of the zone it will spell trouble. Mitchell, against right handed four seam fastballs last year, had a .906 OPS but based on the graphics below you can see some serious regression incoming: While he managed to punish some pitches on the outer third of the zone that snuck out for home runs to the opposite field, the extreme whiff rates at the top of the zone and his poor quality of contact on meatballs and the inner third don’t bode well for the coming season. Why, Technically, Does Mitchell Struggle Against The High Four Seam Fastball? For that, let’s compare his swing to one of the best high fastball hitters in the game, and you can see a distinct difference that may explain both why Garrett Mitchell swings under so many rising four seamers while simultaneously barreling up a plethora of dipping curveballs. Here’s Garrett Mitchell’s swing against a high Rhett Lowder four-seam fastball: eVozd3dfWGw0TUFRPT1fVkZCUkJ3QUZVQUFBVzFCVEF3QUFWQU5SQUFNRFZsQUFCMUlCVWdjTkJ3SmRBbFFE.mp4 Mitchell swings underneath the ball, missing by quite a margin for an in zone pitch and it was emblematic of his struggles all season. If we slow it down however to this freeze frame, you can maybe spot the cause: I've drawn some lines on here to emphasize, but Garrett Mitchell's wrists droop before the bat enters the hitting zone, as a method of creating more of an upward trajectory on his swing. If it were on plane with his arm angle, there's a high likelihood Mitchell at least makes contact with this ball, but because of the drop in his wrists, Mitchell is fighting a losing battle to reorient his bat to the upper third of the zone, creating a sizeable hole in his swing. He dips the wrists, then flicks them back in an effort to create more of an upward trajectory in his bat path, but by the time he makes this correction it's altogether too late to make contact with the ball. Let's contrast that to Juan Soto. Against fastballs in the upper third of the zone, Soto recorded a monstrous 1.082 OPS. Most hitters struggle with this pitch, but Soto is one of the best in the game for a reason, and you'll see why in this video below: TVpSdzFfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdjQ1hGVlZWQVFBWGxJSEF3QUFCUTVVQUZrR1Uxa0FWbE5RVWdWUkNWRUhBQXNB.mp4 Ryan Helsley won reliever of the year in 2024 and his fastball was a major part in this. This particular video features a four seamer at 101.5 mph in the upper third of the zone, nearly untouchable for most hitters, and yet Soto crushed a 114 mph double. How did he do this? Well let's look at his position in contrast to Mitchell's before entering the strike zone: Soto's alignment from his shoulders, to his forearms, wrists and the bat are almost perfectly aligned. In doing so, timing up the high fastball becomes an infinitely more manageable task, and his bat will naturally flow through the path of the ball. It maximises the power output that Soto has and is a massive factor in his ability to barrel so many baseballs while maintaining such a low strikeout rate. How Does Garrett Mitchell Address this in 2025? Hitter's don't have time to decide how to swing at a pitch after recognising the pitch. They have to adjust mid swing after recognising a pitch, and the wrists a re a massive part in that adjustment. Altering your wrist angles is a big component of this in altering the angle of the bat to cover as much of the strike zone as possible once a pitch is recognised and the hitter tries to adjust for the movement profile of whatever variation is thrown. The problem with Mitchell compared to most hitters is his breaks his wrists as a default movement rather tan an adjustment to the pitch, and it gives him a head start covering those dipping curveballs but it becomes so much more difficult to fight and bring the bat plan back up again from that position. Mitchell could look to create a more aligned wrist position with the rest of his swing, but that could be iffy on the results front and leave him prone to those breaking pitches. As the Brewers have seen with Keston Hiura and Joey Wiemer, dramatically changing someone's swing is no quick fix and can create more problems than it solves. Hitter's have developed coping mechanisms to mitigate their weaknesses as they currently stand, and changing the swing invalidates all of those mechanisms while also creating new holes that the hitter has no cover against. I do think in an ideal world, I would still like to see a flatter swing path from Mitchell, and have him use his natural timing and athleticism to adjust to those breaking pitches off the back of it. He has so many tools, and such an athletic swing that he could definitely make the most out of it. With the raw power he possesses and his eye at the plate, being able to time up the fastball more regularly while spitting on breakers is a path to success amongst many major leaguers historically. There is also the general experience route and learning to work around his swing at the highest level. September was a poor month for Mitchell, but in August he managed to increase his foul ball rate, lower his whiff rate and make better production against high fastballs. Pitcher's were throwing them at a far higher rate, and Mitchell adjusted by selling out for them and gambling on the pitch rising from it's original position. Despite debuting in 2022, Mitchell has barely 2/3 of a full year's plate appearances under his belt. For a player with his raw athleticism, it's fair to say that he's still adjusting to the level with 365 plate appearances compared to the likes of Sal Frelick or Brice Turang 747 and 1067 plate appearances respectively. In doing so, although Mitchell arrived in the majors earlier than both, we should probably give him time to make his own adjustments within his swing to better cover that high four seam fastball naturally with experience. One other thing to note that befits the explanation of his development at the major league level. Bat speed is a very intriguing statistic as changes within it can relate to a host of different explanations from pitch locations, injuries, confidence levels and more. That being said, From July through to September Mitchell's bat speed increased each month by a notable amount to the point that his September bat speed would have put him in the top 5 league wide if extrapolated over a full year. In particular, note that his bat speed was increasing each month on fastballs. He did show improved performance in August in terms of whiffing less on high four seamers, and regressed back in September, but there could be a correlation between increased bat speed and his ability to adjust his wrist angles. It's tough to guess based on the small sample size of a month by month basis, but this is a promising indicator of his continuing development as a major leaguer. Would you look to change Mitchell's swing path and wrist angles? Or would you gamble on his learning at the big league level helping him cover the pitch more effectively through experience? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Absolutely, I'm not saying they don't have value, I think Perkins in particular has some given the slightly below league average bat and incredible defense. That being said, it's not enough for someone with the talent of a Bobby Miller, and as I said get something you'd have to give up something. The Dodgers aren't so much in need of depth pieces as starting caliber outfielders and for that, and the upside factor, they'd probably want a Garrett Mitchell. Even then, postulating trades is a wild goose chase but looking at the Dodgers need and the limitations currently shown by O'Rae and his 1 HR last year, and of Peguero, the Dodgers would need something either more major league ready and with higher upside, or a lower level talent with that same high upside as they got in Zyhir Hope/Jackson Ferris from the Cubs last season.

I'm sure the Brewers don't feel like they want or need to trade from their major league outfielders just yet, that doesn't mean they can't be useful in a trade the Brewers think would increase their overall performance on the field in future seasons. Also, as Perkins, Peguero and O'Rae are deemed expendable in your books, they're also likely not too high on the Dodgers priorities either. You're certainly not getting any bonus pool money out of that deal. To get something you'd need to give something, and throwing out a 2b/CF with no power, a reliever with massive command issues and a backup CF wouldn't cut it. Much as it would be great for the Brewers if it did! I think my offer is a win for both sides, but that would only be determined by how things panned out. the Brewers have slightly more upside potentially, but also Miller's lack of track record in the majors just yet impinges his value whereas Mitchell, despite underlying concerns, has produced in games both offensively and defensively.

Absolutely, I do think that the Dodgers would be trading low which most intelligent front offices wouldn't do, but the opportunity of getting something back of equal value in a different position of need with similar traits of a high upside, injury prone and low floor may tweak their interest. I would consider the Brewers to be getting the better end of the dal, but there's potential for both sides to look stupid two-three years after this trade happened. I think getting Sasaki would really compound their depth and increase Miller's availability, but he won't come cheap.

The addition of Blake Snell (while being odds-on favorites to sign Roki Sasaki, too) leaves the Dodgers with an abundance of talent and depth in their rotation. Can the Brewers leverage the Dodgers' surplus to acquire one of the game's highest-upside arms? Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images Despite monstrous injury woes in 2024, the Dodgers are expected to have Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Bobby Miller available to serve in their 2025 rotation. While Ohtani likely mandates a six-man rotation, they also will have Emmett Sheehan and River Ryan returning during the season, with more talent at Triple A in the form of Jack Dreyer, Justin Wrobleski and Nick Frasso. That makes 12 different arms already in their organization, seven of which have MLB experience and will be ready to start the season, with two ready to reinforce upon return from injury and three top-20 organizational prospects at Triple A. No matter how you skin cats, that’s an extreme level of depth. Heck, they're even expected to re-sign Clayton Kershaw for another season. The Dodgers are likely to want strong depth in their system off the back of a 2024 season that highlighted just how easily a pitching staff can be brought to its knees, but they also have other areas of their system that they will want to add some talent, specifically in the outfield. Andy Pages and Tommy Edman would be the most likely center field candidates to start for the Dodgers next season, none of whom shone defensively last season, while James Outman’s bat put him out of the picture for now. Their defensive runs saved in CF in 2024 were: Andy Pages: -8 DRS in 666 innings James Outman: -1 DRS in 337 innings Tommy Edman: 0 DRS in 188 innings None of them were famously ferocious with the bat. Although Pages's 100 wRC+ in his rookie season is commendable, it was also fueled by a quick start before a large dropoff. The Dodgers lack a capable center fielder, and that’s something the Brewers have in excess, with Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell available should the right deal present itself. You could argue that neither side is forced to trade from their stores of depth, but both could be useful in upgrading a hole in the roster. The Brewers rotation lacks that high-upside pitcher, while the Dodgers lack a capable center fielder. That brings us to Bobby Miller. Miller may be one of the most talented arms in baseball. Armed with a fastball whose perceived velocity was over 100 mph in 2023 and had above-average induced vertical break, it’s a unicorn pitch. For reference, his four-seamer in 2023 was thrown three miles per hour harder than Paul Skenes’s in 2024, with five inches of additional “rise”. Here's how Hunter Greene, Skenes and Miller compare on the fastball in the last two seasons: He also had a 90-mph slider, with above-average movement for the velocity bracket it sits in, and a changeup that produced a 41% whiff rate in 2024. The stuff he possesses is not in question. How it mixes can be, and he may have a problem with his two-seamer, in that it doesn't separate much from his four-seam. It's really more of a four-seamer that he obtains additional run on when trying to get in on the hands to righthanders. However, they slugged .900 against it in 2024. Fastball variations are very attractive for the Brewers, but Miller's feel for spin and current arsenal may be better served with a cutter in lieu of the sinker. You can easily see the space where a cutter might do a lot for Miller, in terms of limiting quality of contact against him. I'm not a fan of just advocating a cutter to every pitcher, but Miller's feel for spin in averaging 2,330 RPM on the fastball and occasionally hitting 3,000 RPM on the curveball should allow him to feel out an average or better offering. This season's injury also devastated him. He lost velocity on the fastball and some dip on his breaking pitches, but most of all, he saw his command evaporate. He went from an 80th-percentile 6.3% walk rate down to a 10th percentile 11.2% rate, putting men on base more often while getting punished more regularly on mistake pitches with the drop in “stuff”: Miller’s raw stuff makes him a fascinating buy-low target, although the Dodgers' own pitching development system is sturdy enough that you would expect them to be able to fix him themselves. In giving up on him, that could indicate that they feel he’ll never truly reach the heights he’s capable of, but in reality they have such an abundance of riches in the rotation that having a sidelined or optioned Miller is less valuable than a Garrett Mitchell patrolling center field. One other potential target, albeit somewhat less expensive, would be Dustin May. May had some horrific injuries last year with his esophagus, and is prone to injuries over the rest of his career. May is in his final year of arbitration in 2025, but he showed some electric swing-and-miss ability on his four-seam fastball, cutter, curveball and changeup in 2021-22, while his sinker is a ground ball machine with a gaudy movement profile. His injury history checkers his value, and there’s no guarantee the Brewers can get a full season of his best production in 2025, but he would be an interesting target. You can’t acquire top-of-the-rotation upside in trades without handing over a lot of prospect capital, unless that upside comes with some baggage. Top-tier rotation talent just does not get passed up easily. Bobby Miller has baggage from 2024, but as our supreme overlord Matthew Trueblood noted early in the season: Injury may have deprived us of the 20-strikeout game, but it shows that while there is risk, there's also a genuine ace potential here. If the Brewers can find some way to pry Miller away from the Dodgers, they may benefit for years to come. Further distancing himself from the injury should revitalize Miller's fastball velocity, shape and command, while there is definitely more in the tank for how he can use his five-pitch mix to create even more swing-and-miss than he already has. The learning that comes simply from competing in the big leagues is still to come for Miller, and that's the upside the Brewers would be gambling on in this trade. Baseball Trade Values (often better as a guideline than an exact resource) does place Garrett Mitchell and Bobby Miller as similar in terms of value. Delivering a one-for-one of Mitchell for Miller would be risky on both ends, with both having the ability to make their former teams look foolish. There could even be an add-on, if the Dodgers thought their rotation needed a bona fide closer (it probably doesn't), by adding in Devin Williams for Alex Freeland—an excellent defensive shortstop with strong bat-to-ball skills and solid pop for the left side of the infield. What do you think of Bobby Miller? Do you think the Brewers can revive him? What would you be willing to give up for him? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article