Jake McKibbin

This Brewers lineup is designed to go on hot stretches with a handful of streaky bats, but can the supporting acts bring consistency or do they add more streakiness to their 2024 playoff offense? Image courtesy of © Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Christian Walker. Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper. Playoff offenses are buffeted by batted-ball luck, but the best of them have players on whom you can rely to make quality contact over and over again. The Milwaukee Brewers have bats that have shown flashes of white-hot power throughout this year: Willy Adames, William Contreras, Gary Sánchez, Rhys Hoskins (certainly early in the season), Jackson Chourio and even Garrett Mitchell have shown some serious pop when they hit a hot stretch. We saw in August how damaging this Brewers lineup can be with even two of these bats going haywire, but of the group, you could argue that only Adames and Chourio have shown consistency in their day-to-day offensive production. You expect home runs to come in bunches, and for there to be dry spells. The problem the Brewers have is that their lower-octane, contact-oriented hitters are equally streaky in how they rely on batted-ball luck. Brice Turang is a prime example, with his early-season form masking a .530 OPS since Jul. 1. Joey Ortiz has had some struggles as well, after a neck injury around midseason, and looks the part of a rookie working out what his plan is at the plate; he owns one of the lowest in-zone swing rates in baseball. Turang, Ortiz, Sal Frelick and Jake Bauers all have OPSes under .620 since Aug. 1, meaning the offensive output in that month was more despite them than because of them. The lower third of the order hasn’t been contributing for a while, and it means when those streaky bats dip even slightly, runs can become relatively scarce. Of these hitters, only Turang can lay claim to some batted-ball misfortune, with an expected average 42 points better than his actual number. Earlier in the season, a big reason for the Brewers success was their ability to get speedy players on base and wreak havoc. Turang, Frelick, Blake Perkins and others all caused mayhem and magnified the quality at-bats from the sluggers behind them. Their underpowered bats best profile by avoiding fly balls and keeping the ball either on the ground or on a line. Turang has actually improved in this regard, with a fly ball rate down to 15%, better sweet spot launch angles and similar exit velocities to his first two months. Some better fortune could see Turang be a menace in any series, just as he was in the first month of the season. From their mix at second base, third base, and center field, there has been a marked decrease in production from the first three months to the latter half of the summer: They’re getting half as many home runs and a batting average of just .205, from players with such strong bat-to-ball skills. One culprit is regression to the mean, after overperformance in the first half of the season. Throughout the season, each has shown themselves capable of a hot couple of weeks and good OBPs, and for the Brewers to fully function, they will need some bounces to fall their way once more with the contact hitters. It’s difficult not to think of the difference a healthy Christian Yelich could have made as a consistent producer alongside Chourio, but the Brewers have to manage the cards they’ve been dealt. That means getting the most out of Turang, Ortiz and Frelick. A lineup with multiple consecutive holes can torpedo a playoff lineup, and it could spell another early exit for the Brewers in October. Streakiness is the Brewers' best hope, but thankfully, it's something they've seen from both their more powerful producers and their lesser lights. The question is: Can they find it at just the right time in October? What do you think of the production from Ortiz, Turang and Frelick? Has it disappointed you and given some concern for the playoff offense? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Just posted about this, it's fascinating stuff. Really intrigued how the Brewers move forward with him

A month ago, it felt fairly clear who should start the first few games of any Brewers playoff series. Performance trends have turned those waters turbid lately, though. Where do things stand? Image courtesy of © John Hefti-Imagn Images Over the last 30 days, the Brewers' starting pitching has see-sawed somewhat in terms of performance. Where both Colin Rea and Tobias Myers have seen some regression to the mean in their peripheral numbers (though Myers's numbers remain strong, and his stuff still looks lively), Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas have soared within the Brewers' pitching setup. They’ve altered their pitch mixes and usage significantly, and the results are hard to argue. Can a case be made for both to move up the pecking order when crunch time comes around? Both Montas and Civale are using their arsenals very differently with the Brewers, compared with their times at the Reds and Rays, respectively. Frankie Montas is accentuating his three fastball variations to extreme levels and limiting the usage of his most hyped pitch, the splitter. Eighty percent of his pitches thrown are fastball variants, and the Brewers have managed to unlock an extra tick of velocity in each of the four-seamer, sinker and cutter. Montas is also locating the fastballs differently. Whereas he was previously using them heavily in zone to set up a well-tunneled chase of his splitter, he’s now nibbling around the edges of the zone and giving hitters a lot of different looks--and earning more swings and misses as a result. Civale has seen a similar transformation, leaning more heavily on his sinker in particular and increasing his overall fastball usage (again the four-seamer, sinker and cutter) from 62% to 69% while adding in a seventh pitch to his arsenal in the form of a short slider that tunnels better with his fastballs due to the later break on the pitch (For more info, Jack Stern covered it brilliantly here). The biggest boost Civale has had is not so much in the swing-and-miss aspect, but in the types of contact he’s generating. Through a variety of pitches moving in different ways in an east-west profile of the strike zone, Civale’s seen a strong drop off in the number of line drives he was giving up with Tampa Bay, and a spike in ground balls and pop-ups: The reason for the damage against him in Tampa Bay was from that incredibly low GB/FB ratio, which has trended upward of late--although it is still quite low. Then you come to Colin Rea and Tobias Myers. Both have struggled recently. Rea's difficulties have been more apparent, but Myers has been grinding out starts with a lot of men on base. Some of the things he got away with against the Rockies during the last homestand won't work against better offenses. When you compare them over the last 30 days with Civale and Montas, the latter pair have done a better job in: Home runs allowed Average exit velocities WHIP (by a large margin) Sweet spot launch angles ERA In the playoffs, the best route to success is the ability to limit home runs and baserunners. Constant traffic on the basepaths means one home run can hurt hard, and vice-versa: you can live with home runs if you limit the overall men on base. Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale have done a great job in controlling their men on base. They’ve been better at controlling the long ball and letting the Brewers defense cover behind them. There’s also the question of workloads. Both Civale and Montas are MLB veterans who have pitched over 130 innings regularly; Montas actually pitched 187 innings in 2021. Myers is a rookie pitcher who is approaching his career high of innings, while being significantly more stressed due to the more advanced level. Rea is sitting at 154 innings having maxed out at 142 since 2020. Both of these arms have carried a lot of strain throughout the Brewers season as the glue that held the rotation together, but it would be entirely understandable if both were beginning to feel a little heavier in the arm as the regular season comes to a close. The experience of Montas and Civale in going through this may equip them to maintain their form through October more than Rea or Myers, and it’s yet another reason why they could push their way into the conversation. Can you honestly say that, given the results over the last month, you would trust Rea and Myers more than Civale and Montas? Do their early-season heroics give them more standing as the Brewers approach the playoffs? I like to lean toward form and experience, but I think it’s a much larger conversation than most would care to admit at this point. What do you think of the rotation composition in the playoffs? Are Civale and Montas edging out Rea and Myers? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Pat Murphy has preached “win today” all season, and it’s epitomized this Brewers team. Yet, in a month wherein managing workloads and auditioning playoff roles has begun, can they maintain that intensity with such a young core? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images The mental fortitude of the 2024 Brewers--to come in every day with the hustle, grind and mental acuity required for their brand of baseball--cannot be overstated. It requires a team-wide culture of trust that everyone is putting in the same hard yards, looking for one percent more in every situation. It’s fair to say Murphy has led by example in this regard, with aggressive bullpen moves and even occasional overuse of the bullpen. He's shown almost complete disregard for a game the following day. In September, that has started to change, with one eye turning toward the playoffs. Colin Rea was pulled on Wednesday after just four innings of work. Freddy Peralta was pulled on Sunday with just 86 pitches in the middle of the fifth inning. Then you factor in extra playing time in big spots for the likes of Jake Bauers, Hoby Milner, the testing and assessment of Isaac Collins and Brewer Hicklen, and it all begins to seem like the focus has shifted ever-so-slightly from the "win today" mantra that has encapsulated so much of the Brewers' best baseball in 2024. The offensive slump against the Rockies and Cardinals can happen to any baseball team, in a sport that can change on a knife edge based on batted-ball fortune and timing. That being said, there were a few signs that perhaps the Brewers were struggling to grind as they usually do. Only three times all year had the Brewers failed to register a walk in a game, but that has now happened twice in September--against a bullpen day for Cincinnati and the subpar Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. The overall numbers for the team are slightly skewed as well, with their highest swinging-strike rate on the season and their highest chase rate and overall swing rate, to boot. For a team who have prided themselves on being selective and comfortable in deeper counts, they’ve shown signs of drifting away from that. Thanks to the lack of selectivity, they're also not producing as much hard contact of late. They have had some bad luck with batted balls in play, and that .181 Batting average on balls in play is likely to tick up, but some of that drop is earned from squaring up the ball less often than they managed for the rest of the season. It’s obvious they’ve struggled a little offensively, and I would have one theory behind this. There is a psychiatric variation of the Pareto principle (known as the 80/20 rule) that observes how the brain will begin to lose focus in a task once you are around 80% complete, easing off as the task comes to the finishing line. You might notice this with simple tasks, such as cleaning the house, or at 4 pm on a work day when your mind begins to drift and lose focus. This Brewers team is incredibly young and inexperienced, with a number of their veteran leaders unable to take the field through injury. As a result, you could excuse the youth of Jackson Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, Tobias Myers and others in their first two seasons for losing a little bit of that focus, with the Brewers organization also beginning to plan for the playoffs. We saw a hint of it coming into the All-Star break after a grueling first half, with the Brewers slumping hard against struggling teams just as they did last week. Chourio is a prime example. He's shown large spikes in his whiff rate, while recording just a 23.5% hard-hit rate in September. That's after having averaged over 50% in the prior two months combined. The Brewers are yet again coming up to a break or change in the season, and you could understand that focus drifting toward the bright lights of October Keeping that clubhouse focus is going to require the veterans to step up and lead by example, both in their performance and their preparation. Seeing Willy Adames, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins finding some form will go a long way to taking the stress off the younger players. It's also going to need that leadership from Murphy, whose role is to balance September and October while keeping the players fully focused on the here and now. He can't lead by example so intensely at this point, and it will be a challenge. How the Brewers handle a tough stretch with the Giants, Diamondbacks and a key showdown with the Phillies will go a long way toward building some momentum as they enter the playoffs, and perhaps even allow them to force their way back into the first-round bye conversation. One thing’s for sure: sustaining and burnishing that focus on today’s game will be at the center of it all. What do you think of the Brewers' recent stretch of offense? Can you see noticeable differences in their approach? And does it concern you as they come to the playoffs? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Each player has gotten lots of opportunity to assert themselves as deserving of a playoff roster spot. Neither has quite done so. What now? Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images Bryan Hudson’s option to Nashville to make room for Hoby Milner was as much to give Milner a chance to push a postseason case as it was to recuperate Hudson’s arm. Jake Bauers has seen more time at first base in the last 10 days than he had in the first 29 days of August. It seems both are being given an opportunity to fill a specific role, but it’s safe to say neither have quite taken the opportunity before them. The Bauers audition is specifically for that first base role. Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sánchez and Andruw Monasterio are subpar defensive first basemen compared to Bauers, who actually grades out relatively well. He had been seeing more time at DH, with Pat Murphy feeling more comfortable pinch-hitting in that role, but the use of him at first base is to see whether the Brewers can shore up defensively while still having two power bats, in Bauers and a DH of Hoskins or Sánchez. We’ve seen some streaky hot hitting from Bauers when his plate discipline has been impeccable, but that hasn’t been the case since the start of August. For a short period after going to a toe tap instead of a big leg kick, Bauers's chase rate was at an elite level of 9.9%--a fairly unsustainable rate, to be frank, but it brought about some impressive production. Since the start of August, that rate has almost doubled, to 18.8%. That's still better than average, but it’s meant a massive downturn, because he cannot seem to make any contact when chasing. In the same time period, he made contact with just 30% of the out-of-zone pitches he swung at, meaning he can’t foul off good pitches in two-strike counts and therefore has far less opportunity for a mistake pitch he can do damage against. Then you have the bigger issue: he isn’t doing damage on those mistakes anymore. Above, you can see the difference in expected slugging during his hot stretch in May, compared to his showing since Aug. 1. The hitter on the left would be invaluable to the Brewers this season, but the one on the right (with all the additional weaknesses Bauers brings) is borderline unplayable. He looks lost and very low on confidence, which has left him on the outskirts of a playoff roster, perhaps only as a late-inning defensive replacement. Hitting .128 with a 42.6% strikeout rate since the trade deadline is not going to push his case all that far. The Brewers are likely to pivot to a more experienced and trustworthy weapon in their arsenal, in Gary Sánchez, for that DH role, and to gamble on Hoskins defensively at first base. Both have considerably more experience in a playoff run. Both are the same type of streaky hitter as Bauers. But crucially, they have shown themselves able to handle the bright lights of October and the big moments; Bauers has not. The Brewers have enough left-handed bats to keep a balance in their lineup while doing this, and I’d expect to see more Sánchez at-bats as the season comes to a close. Meanwhile, Hoby Milner returned from the IL on Sept. 3, with two appearances in high-leverage situations so far. They haven’t gone well. Milner’s role would have been in that left-on-left matchup, with his release point particularly difficult for southpaws to pick up. However, in those at-bats, Milner gave up a seeing-eye single to score an inherited baserunner against the Cardinals (this was against a right-handed batter, after the Cardinals pinch-hit for Brendan Donovan) and a three-run home run against the Rockies to break a tie on Sunday. Note the pinch-hit move. Remember, that is a very likely response from an opposing manager in the postseason, and as such, it fits the audition quite nicely. Milner has been a resounding success story for the Brewers in recent seasons, but even accounting for some early-season misfortune, he hasn’t been getting the results you would expect. For him to have two successive failures in the exact situation to which Milner would be used during the playoffs is quite damning. He’s getting less swing-and-miss and fewer chases than in 2023, and the extra balls in play have found holes, while the hard contact has left the ballpark more regularly. Hudson’s struggles with velocity on both his fastball and breaking pitches compared to the start of the season opened a door for Milner, but it doesn’t seem like he’s ready to take it. The Brewers will have Aaron Ashby and DL Hall as strong lefthanders out of the bullpen who can get outs against both sides of the platoon, while Jared Koenig has also shown great results this year. They have enough southpaw arms for the spaced-out playoffs, and even a depleted Hudson has shown significantly more promise than Milner has this season. If Milner makes the Brewers' 26-man playoff roster at this point, I would be surprised. Bauers is fading away, into a position where he may not see a single playoff at-bat. Both of these players will need some strong performances to push their cases as the season comes to a close. What do you think of Hoby Milner and Jake Bauers in the context of a playoff roster? Can you see them having a chance to make an impact? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

I'm not entirely sure, what sort of matchup advantage would you hope to gain? Peraltas strikeout stuff seems pretty indiscriminate and as likely to give up a homer to someone with 50 WRC+ a a Freeman in some ways It's such a mystery how regularly Peralta either completely missed the bat, or finds the barrel. A two true outcome pitcher 😂

Freddy Peralta is all but guaranteed to start Game 1 of the playoffs for the Milwaukee Brewers, but he’s far from the most ascendant or successful pitcher on this staff. How much will this matter in October? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images In medicine, there’s a famous saying: When you hear hoofbeats, you should think of horses not zebras. It's about not being so fascinated with a marvelous possibility that one misses a more mundane probability. In the case of Freddy Peralta, despite the incredible success he had in 2021 and in the second half of 2023, it would be folly to expect that sort of dominance next month, on the heels of what has been a slightly disappointing season. Peralta has been prone to home runs, poor command, an inability to put away hitters efficiently and short starts with high pitch counts. Sunday against the Rockies was just the latest example although pulling him with 83 pitches through 4 ⅔ was more likely a product of load management than of his coaching staff believing he was no longer the man for the job. The lack of depth in his pitching arsenal, either through an elite secondary offering or a fastball variation, means that Peralta struggles upon reaching a third time through the batting order, while scores of non-competitive pitches in two strike counts leverage him into excessive walks and pitch counts that do his arm no good. Opponent xwOBA by Time Through Batting Order, Freddy Peralta, 2024 Couple that with a struggle to command both of his breaking pitches early in his start (as you can see below, he has a tendency to hang them in pitches 0-20), and how his breaking stuff gets hammered from his 60th pitch onward (42% hard hit rate, 32% sweet spot launch angle rate) and you’re almost removing his out pitches at the beginning and end of his starts. The changeup has been crushed the second and third time through a lineup, as well (see below), with the fastball then shouldering a lot more responsibility than it can handle. Thus, the heater is being hit hard no matter when hitters are seeing it, appearing to have lost an element of deception. In short, once hitters see Peralta’s arsenal the first time through, they really begin to settle in, and if they see him a third time, it’s barrel o’clock, with every single one of his pitches getting squared up with aplomb. Watching Peralta tiptoe around lower-order, struggling hitters is nothing new this season, and it’s been exacerbated by the lack of consistent and dependable offspeed offerings that have allowed hitters to just sit on that fastball (whose movement has an almost identical profile to 2021 and the second half of 2023) and let it rip. As none of his pitches can come close usage-wise, it’s a safe bet to sit on, even if it means a few more strikeouts. Those strikeouts are the great caveat, of course. Any quality of contact metric tends to use batted balls as the denominator, so we have to notice that Peralta's ability to miss so many bats brings that number down, in order to properly evaluate him. However, the ability to rack up strikeouts is just one part of pitching. Peralta is good at it, but not very good at most of the rest of the parts of the craft, at least this season. The best hitters in October will crush fastballs, but there is some relatively good news. Peralta's breaking pitches do have success the first two times through, or at least enough success to get by. The structure of the Brewers' staff in October (will likely feature arms like Aaron Civale, DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, Frankie Montas and Joe Ross as long relief options) may actually allow Peralta to get through just the three or four innings in which he currently seems capable of truly excelling, before passing the baton. Following a pitcher like Peralta with the left-handed breaking pitches of Hall (whom I talked about here as a viable option) would present a tough matchup for most opposing lineups. By leaning into this strength, the Brewers, while perhaps not getting the very best of Peralta, may be able to get by well enough and as a whole present a strong standard from which to begin their series on the right foot. At the very least, Peralta has shown he can be effective if his inning is curtailed that third time through the order. He's a solid starter, if not the dominant one many were hoping for coming into this season. Getting the pitch mix right will be absolutely essential, but if the Brewers manage him correctly, they can mitigate some of the concerns around his Game 1 start. What do you think of Freddy Peralta as a game one starter? Does it give you concern to start the series off? Or do you think he can still find some form? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Since returning from an elongated stint on the injured list, he's produced results that matched expectations in the wake of the Corbin Burnes trade. Can he find a way to leverage his form into a starting role for the playoffs? Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images DL Hall has looked filthy since returning to the Brewers roster, especially in the usage and command of his offspeed offerings. It’s been a slow return to form for Hall, after a 7.71 ERA in April that involved playing through a knee injury impacting his pitches' movement and velocity in a notable way. In 15 ⅔ innings since his return, Hall has posted a 0.57 ERA, with significant jumps in velocity, movement, command--and desirable outcomes. He is currently being used as a spot starter and long reliever, and they’re keeping him stretched out for these roles, which could allow him to push for a starting role in October. One of the reasons this could be on the table is the variability in performance from those competing for the third starting pitcher spot. Tobias Myers has regressed, by the eye test, for a little longer than the statistics show. He’s got a lower swinging strike rate than any of his contemporaries, while averaging 91.5 mph exit velocities since the start of August, and while Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale have been very impressive of late with intriguingly different arsenals, there is a blow-up potential with both that may give some cause for concern. I could go into a lot of detail on who I think would suit best for this role, but let’s focus on Hall for now. The breaking pitches have looked phenomenal since he returned, generating a lot of swing-and-miss, and some of the swings make it appear that hitters are struggling to pick up the pitch out of the hand. With a changeup, a looping curve and a sweeping slider, he has a lot of different movement profiles to enable him to be effective against both left- and right-handed hitters. The changeup tunnels beautifully with the fastball, while the depth difference between the curveball and slider can make both difficult to square up. As a pitcher struggling in two-strike counts earlier in the year, with many hitters sitting on what was quite a hittable fastball, it’s notable that Hall’s mixing in a lot more breaking pitches in two-strike counts of late. Compare the two diagrams from earlier in the year and the period since Aug. 1: Hall is leaning far more heavily on the slider and changeup to finish off opposing hitters, and it’s been mightily effective, jumping from a swinging-strike rate of 11.1% up to 20.1% since Aug. 1 in putaway counts. The command of these pitches that are pounding the bottom of the strike zone has been very impressive, and the biggest reason for his success in these counts. One slight worry, however, is that fastball shape, which is much improved but is hovering between a plus offering and a below-average one. Before digressing, I should say it’s markedly improved from the meatball he had earlier in the season: He’s getting more rise, and averaging over 2 mph in terms of “perceived velocity,” as well as a flatter angle when entering the zone. All of this combines to enhance a pitch that should have a lot of hitters swinging under it. However, he still isn’t consistently reached the registers that he will need to make it a genuine swing-and-miss offering: As you can see, crossing the 15” mark is really key for Hall, in terms of how much swing-and-miss he gets with the four seam fastball. Hall’s fastball was graded as an 80 pitch on the scouting scale (i.e. the same level as Jacob Misiorowski’s) because of that ride, but until he reaches 15” and above on a more consistent basis, it just won’t play like that. However, it is limiting hard contact extremely well, and as such, I could argue that it’s quite close to that elite offering he's hunting. Since coming back, hitters have averaged an exit velocity of 81 mph on Hall’s fastball, with a 20% pop-up rate and 41.7% fly-ball rate. Pairing those velocities with anything in the air is a recipe for cheap, quick outs, which can allow Hall to work deeper into games and perhaps be effective on the fastball in a different way. As a cherry on top he’s only allowed one line drive in the Majors since the start of August. The fact that I’m even discussing a DL Hall start in October shows just how far he’s come since the start of the year, and potentially how much more he can provide after surgery in the offseason to heal the lingering issue he’s managed for years. A red-hot September might force him into the reckoning for a Game 3 start, especially if the Brewers feel he has the mentality to hold up in the bright lights of playoff baseball. It may not be a long start, maybe only twice through the order, but with the way Hall has been pitching, it is certainly not something to rule out. What do you think of DL Hall’s return to the Brewers? Have you been impressed enough to slot him into a playoff rotation? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Was thinking exactly the same, love the adjustability around the barrel to get it on the ball as well

Logan Henderson has been scratched for today, as well as last Sunday. Could be more innings control at the back end of the year, but does make these games a little less fun to tune in to

Logan Henderson is no longer scheduled to start this week

Roster expansion day came and went, leaving two potential studs down in Nashville. Why did the Brewers opt against recalling their two most interesting minor-league hurlers? More importantly, can they still be eligible for the postseason? Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / USA TODAY NETWORK Expanded rosters brought about the return of DL Hall as the extra pitcher for the Brewers to begin September, despite a lot of hype about both Jacob Misiorowski and Craig Yoho at Nashville. There were some loud rumblings of a potential Misiorowski callup, in particular, that never came to fruition--but there are some fairly solid reasons for this, not least that neither is yet on a fairly crowded 40-man roster. First of all, the team might still be focused on determining whether Misiorowski is ready to start in the major leagues next season. His control looks markedly better at Triple-A, despite a blip of three walks in his last appearance, but those control problems continued to waver in his starting role at Biloxi before his promotion. There's also a difference between control and command, the distinction between which may not get by quite so successfully in the major leagues. Consider Misiorowski’s pitch map, below: There is also an issue in starting his service clock before he’s ready. If the Brewers have intentions of him continuing in a starting role, he will most likely need more time at Triple-A next season to continue refining his command and potentially developing a pitch that moves to the arm side. Then there is the concern over his innings and pitch counts. Misiorowski was shut down early in August of 2023 due to arm fatigue, and the violence of his delivery has created concerns about the workload on his shoulder and elbow joints. He threw just 71 ⅓ innings in 2023, but has reached 92 ⅓ so far in 2024, with around 100 innings a likely figure the Brewers front office have in mind. Bringing him up after that mark to pitch highly stressful innings in October would be a concern on their part, for a player of his talent. Realistically, the raw stuff plays out of the bullpen right now if he’s promoted, but to lose a year of his talent for a small bullpen upgrade (and it would be small given the talent the Brewers already have in the pen at their disposal) doesn’t quite align with the organization's paradigm. The Brewers have preached about the balance of looking after today and tomorrow in equilibrium, and you’d best believe that plays a part in the Misiorowski decision. Craig Yoho is a different kettle of fish, and perhaps with the all-relief profile and the potential to start next season with the Brewers out of spring training, he was a strong candidate. Possessing a screwball comparable to Devin Williams's alongside a wiffleball slider and a two-seamer, Yoho also has stuff capable of getting outs from the bullpen right now. Yoho is still quite new to pitching, which is one reason why he went under the radar and signed for just $10,000 in the 2023 draft, and that leaves with it a certain element of the unknown in how a player responds to those high-octane environments. Yoho’s stuff can dismantle anyone in the minor leagues, but against the best bats on the biggest stage, you need more than just raw stuff to carry you as a pitcher. I’m potentially grasping at straws a little with Yoho, but the Brewers evidently felt he needed more time, and are potentially also a little concerned with his innings usage, given the injury struggles he faced in college with a history of two Tommy John surgeries. He threw a total of 37 innings with Indiana in 2023, the only innings of his college career, so a modicum of caution is warranted. In the end, the main reason will still be the 40-man crunch the Brewers currently have, with Enoli Paredes, Bryse Wilson and Nick Mears all on the IL and vying for a September return--meaning there are already some tough decisions in store. The next big question is whether either can still force their way into the Brewers' plans for October. The general rule is that, to be postseason-eligible, a player must be on the 40-man roster or the 60-day IL on Aug. 31. Josh Donaldson was claimed off waivers in 2023 while on the 60-day IL, which allowed him to play for the Brewers in October but obviously that’s not the case for Misiorowski or Yoho. However, there is one loophole: So if there is a player on the IL and has served their allotted time, the Brewers can replace them on the 40-man roster, with approval from the commissioner's office. This situation could arise later in the month, but two interesting such cases do exist. Mears is currently on the 15-day IL with elbow inflammation, and early reports are good, but it’s the kind of injury that can suddenly regress and put you back to square one. With Hoby Milner back but Bryan Hudson optioned to Nashville, the revolving door is spinning quickly right now--but it's hard to get a pitcher from off the 40-man into the rotation. It's easy to get the waivers alluded to in that rule comment. Since Misiorowski and Yoho were both in the organization well before the deadline, eligibility isn't a problem. It's more likely that the team is just keeping its powder dry, knowing that calling up either would force moves that would take certain other options off the table--whereas leaving them in Nashville preserves all those options and extends their window to evaluate some of the other fringe candidates for October inclusion. All in all, it seems at this point as though both the young hurlers will be watching on while the brewers play in October, but there’s still room for all manner of chaos to erupt in September. How the Brewers handle that is anyone’s guess. What do you think of the decision to keep Yoho and Misiorowski off the 40 man roster, and the side effects of doing so? Do you agree with it? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

The argument here is more on the issues with the Brewers going to a six man rotation. They'd need length from their starters to compensate for a smaller bullpen, however by pushing DL Hall into long relief it makes Wilson's role slightly more redundant in the wake of other more successful reliefarms. Either way it seems the IL stint has taken him first and we'll see how long that lasts for, but Ashby, Ross and Hall all look like genuine weapons out of the bullpen. That being said, the Bryan Hudson demotion is something to watch, it's most likely to do with keeping him fresh but he is one of the multi inning relief arms mentioned above and if the Brewers are concerned about his place on the playoff roster that may open a hole for Wilson or others

No It seems perfect Jack Sterns questioning that this is more about being able to replace Bauer's with Sanchez in PH situations where they're uncertain about Sanchez and Monasterio at first base, and rightly so. Whether that's as beneficial, who knows, but that's Murphy's reasoning. Seeing him knock a breaking ball down in the zone out yesterday was a sight for sore eyes, but he also showed a lot of chase down and away still so a lot of work to be done there and on his overall selectivity at the plate

The slugger hit just .189/.260/.344 in August, completely unable to square up the ball for long stretches. Even his “hot” July showed some considerable regress under the surface. Can the Brewers fix him before the playoffs? Image courtesy of © benny sieu-usa today sports For a hitter like Rhys Hoskins, who features a lot of power to the shorter fields on his pull side, expected statistics aren’t an ideal measurement of his prowess. However, compare him to his own production month-to-month (rather than league averages), and a very stark trend begins to show: Hoskins has just not squared the ball up with any consistency since coming back from the IL. Two key metrics for the quality of contact and output by Hoskins are his expected weighted on-base average and his expected slugging marks, both of which show a considerable decrease since his hamstring injury. Hoskins is never going to hit for a high average. He's too slow, and he whiffs too much. No matter where or how hard it’s hit, Hoskins has almost no chance of legging out a single on a ball that's nabbed by an infielder. In addition to that, even balls pounded into a gap don’t guarantee him a double. Factoring in the amount of swing and miss and strikeouts in his game, in order to bring value, Hoskins has to be either walking a lot or crushing the ball when the pitcher errs. These two can go hand-in-hand, in that if pitchers feel a hitter can hurt them, they’re more likely to nibble, and the likelihood of a walk rises. The freefall Hoskins has been in, however, has led them to be aggressive in the zone, especially attacking some gaping holes in his swing. As you can see in the table above, his xWOBA and his expected slugging have been in a sharp decline since he returned in June. This emphasizes just how fortunate the surface numbers in July were. He’s a far cry from the Hoskins we saw pre-injury, with the high walk rates and slugging rates, so what’s changed? Well, first off, Hoskins's long swing and modest bat speed require a very strong eye at the plate. He needs to recognize pitches much earlier than most hitters, to make high-quality contact. It’s a big reason why he talks a lot about swing decisions when things are going well for him, and also why he can chase some ludicrous pitches on occasion. I’d like to take things a little further in terms of the quality of his swing decisions and suggest he’s become a little too swing-happy, especially in areas where he struggles to create quality contact: Hoskins has an xWOBA of just .142 in 2024 when swinging down and away in the zone, yet he’s swinging 10 percentage points more often in this zone than he was earlier in the year. You might ask whether this is a factor of good sequencing, and him being forced to swing in two-strike counts. Instead, when you strip out those situations, the disparity grows. In April and May, he swung in that zone just 30% of the time with zero or one strike, whereas since the return in June, that number has skyrocketed to 52%. His swing doesn’t have a lot of adjustability, and he struggles to even stretch the barrel of the bat to cover this zone--which makes it all the more perplexing how often he’s swinging at these pitches. Combine that with the heavy slider usage to that down-and-away location, a pitch Hoskins has a measly .313 OPS against from the start of June, and it begins to explain some of the issues he's had in recent months. In this three-month period, against the slider, Hoskins has one bloop double down the left-field line and one warning track flyball out to show any sign of pop. His bat speed has stayed consistent throughout the year, if not a little faster since returning from injury so it seems like the hamstring injury hasn’t affected him in this particular way. It has seemed to affect his comfort at the plate more, with a far less confident and patient approach. Although I’ve dumped a little on his July numbers belying some of the underlying numbers, there’s a clear pattern in terms of his approach, and it feeds into his struggles down and away. One thing you pretty much can’t do with that pitch is attempt to pull it, and yet, look at Hoskins's trends on a month-by-month basis: His best three months (ignoring March, for sample size reasons) have all come with comfort hitting to the opposite field. June and August, on the other hand, have been about as pull-heavy as you’ll see from any hitter. He has the raw power to torch balls out to center field, unlike the mold of an Isaac Paredes, and it should allow him to find the barrel with more consistency against all pitches. Perhaps that will play a big factor in whether he can rekindle some of his early-season heroics down the stretch. One thing’s for sure, the Brewers with a fully firing Rhys Hoskins are a truly fearsome lineup. What do you think of Hoskins's struggles? Can you see a quick fix? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

The table was to do with the ERA's the third time through the order, it was meant to look more at the current starting rotations struggles going deep than to assess Wilson!