Jake McKibbin
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He's got a mutual option for $20m with a $2m buyout for 2025 but it's hard to see the Brewers picking that up so yes I'd treat this as a rental. Pitch mix tweaks can be done relatively quickly and they'll get some benefit from it in the immediate future especially as it usually takes time to see the adjustments and adjust back for hitters. That's me putting a positive spin on things, but for more details on what exactly he can do Matt has written an excellent piece here
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2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I've updated the initial page as we go along if that helps, so just go to the first post in this thread I'd imagine it'll all depend on Levonas and his offer. There'll probably be a deadline in place and after that the Brewers will direct that cash towards the Day 3 picks -
Giving up on Jakob Junis in his hybrid role for Frankie Montas and his 5.01 ERA this season is an out-of-left-field move from the Brewers, but does it really upgrade their playoff push? Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports Trading for two players with an ERA over 5.00 doesn’t usually fit into the trade deadline plans for a playoff competitor, and unlike Nick Mears, there has been no obvious misfortune in Frankie Montas conceding these runs, with peripheral metrics backing them up. Montas has some assets that were highlighted in his start to the season, with the ability to generate a lot of ground balls on that split finger and get quick outs, carrying him deep into games, but the other pitches in his arsenal have been unsuccessful to say the least. Montas has struggled with both generating strikeouts and limiting walks on the year. The Brewers had a surplus of talent in one area and a dearth in another. The surplus was in their long relief corps, with DL Hall stretched out at Nashville and Joe Ross positioned to complement Bryse Wilson, depending on whether they go with a five- or six-man rotation down the stretch. Hall hasn’t thrown over 62 pitches since April, and the Brewers may now be seeing him as the ideal man to replace Jakob Junis in the pen, with his fastball having regained some of its former vigor. There are only so many occasions where that longer relief is needed, and as such, Junis (in his current role) may have been redundant, especially with the Brewers' reluctance to stretch him out further with concerns over his “scratchy shoulder”. Montas’s splitter is a truly elite pitch, and the Brewers may see a way of restructuring his sequencing and locations to get more out of it and hide the weakness in his three-fastball mix, especially his cutter. He’s getting a little less horizontal cut than in his prime years but the real issue is command: Results-wise, Montas has two effective pitches in the slider and splitter, and by tweaking the usage of the four-seamer and sinker he may be able to get them by well enough to take advantage of those off speed offerings Whether Montas is exactly what the Brewers needed is arguable. I’m not entirely sure he presents an upgrade on Ross, should they stick with a five-man rotation. Joey Wiemer has had a hot July without the high exit velocities to assure anyone that it can be consistent. Junis was valuable, but may be replaced by Hall on his return as a longer reliever. As such, they haven’t traded a whole lot to get Montas. He can provide length and quick outs that should play up with the Brewers' premium “run-prevention unit,” as they like to call it, and Montas has the experience to slot quickly into the Brewers rotation. All that being noted, the Brewers' biggest need at the deadline was a pitcher they trusted to get outs in a playoff game against the best hitters in the league. Yes, that comes with a hefty cost, but the Brewers offense--with a firing Jackson Chourio, a (potentially) rejuvenated Christian Yelich and the likes of Willy Adames, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins finding form at the right time--is capable of making a deep run. Montas doesn't appear to be that frontline pitcher. His sheer stuff and velocity have ticked down since his shoulder surgery last season, and even if it does work out, they'll have another pitcher hovering around an earned run average of 4.00, rather than one who's capable of going a month with a sub-3.00 and who can strike out elite opponents. They’re still missing that caliber of pitcher, and with the offense not all that consistent from one day to another, this doesn't instill a lot of confidence in the Brewers making a deep playoff run--barring a further addition. View full article
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Trading for two players with an ERA over 5.00 doesn’t usually fit into the trade deadline plans for a playoff competitor, and unlike Nick Mears, there has been no obvious misfortune in Frankie Montas conceding these runs, with peripheral metrics backing them up. Montas has some assets that were highlighted in his start to the season, with the ability to generate a lot of ground balls on that split finger and get quick outs, carrying him deep into games, but the other pitches in his arsenal have been unsuccessful to say the least. Montas has struggled with both generating strikeouts and limiting walks on the year. The Brewers had a surplus of talent in one area and a dearth in another. The surplus was in their long relief corps, with DL Hall stretched out at Nashville and Joe Ross positioned to complement Bryse Wilson, depending on whether they go with a five- or six-man rotation down the stretch. Hall hasn’t thrown over 62 pitches since April, and the Brewers may now be seeing him as the ideal man to replace Jakob Junis in the pen, with his fastball having regained some of its former vigor. There are only so many occasions where that longer relief is needed, and as such, Junis (in his current role) may have been redundant, especially with the Brewers' reluctance to stretch him out further with concerns over his “scratchy shoulder”. Montas’s splitter is a truly elite pitch, and the Brewers may see a way of restructuring his sequencing and locations to get more out of it and hide the weakness in his three-fastball mix, especially his cutter. He’s getting a little less horizontal cut than in his prime years but the real issue is command: Results-wise, Montas has two effective pitches in the slider and splitter, and by tweaking the usage of the four-seamer and sinker he may be able to get them by well enough to take advantage of those off speed offerings Whether Montas is exactly what the Brewers needed is arguable. I’m not entirely sure he presents an upgrade on Ross, should they stick with a five-man rotation. Joey Wiemer has had a hot July without the high exit velocities to assure anyone that it can be consistent. Junis was valuable, but may be replaced by Hall on his return as a longer reliever. As such, they haven’t traded a whole lot to get Montas. He can provide length and quick outs that should play up with the Brewers' premium “run-prevention unit,” as they like to call it, and Montas has the experience to slot quickly into the Brewers rotation. All that being noted, the Brewers' biggest need at the deadline was a pitcher they trusted to get outs in a playoff game against the best hitters in the league. Yes, that comes with a hefty cost, but the Brewers offense--with a firing Jackson Chourio, a (potentially) rejuvenated Christian Yelich and the likes of Willy Adames, William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins finding form at the right time--is capable of making a deep run. Montas doesn't appear to be that frontline pitcher. His sheer stuff and velocity have ticked down since his shoulder surgery last season, and even if it does work out, they'll have another pitcher hovering around an earned run average of 4.00, rather than one who's capable of going a month with a sub-3.00 and who can strike out elite opponents. They’re still missing that caliber of pitcher, and with the offense not all that consistent from one day to another, this doesn't instill a lot of confidence in the Brewers making a deep playoff run--barring a further addition.
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I did talk about the breaking stuff as well not just on the road Vs at home but overall and in particular the curve. I think the fastball has some issues that I hope don't flare up but it is worth keeping an eye on. I think it's great but we also know Matt Bush had some nice FB metrics but got hammered a bit. I'd also say over the last couple of months to the eye test Megill hasn't looked as solid and there have been a lot of deep fly balls that put a lump in your throat. I think Mears will be good and I do think there's a tweak in the breaking pitches he uses but does being elevated at 95+ regularly enough give something to watch, I think so. Anyway happy to leave it there!
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There's clearly some difference in how they're measured but it's not a wonky definition at all with a ton of variables. I think savant maybe tapers barrels more within a high exit velo, in the a 10 degree LA can be a barrel if you hit it 120 mph whereas Trumedia includes all hard hit balls with the sweet spot launch angle but either way I'm happy enough saying that the barrel rate presented by Trumedia gives me some cause for concern and it's a justifiable opinion. Being hit 95+ with optimal launch angles is never ideal. I can't say for sure that's the difference as I'm currently on my phone and out in town, but Trumedia is a very good source of statistical information used by a lot of baseball writers so I'm happy to back it's relevance here
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Thanks Matt, just went to screenshot it myself! Didn't realize the differential was quite so vast and may use other indicators to back it up in future, but the sweet spot rates per batted ball being 45.2% as well is a fairly strong indicator it hasn't entirely worked out for him in terms of movement and my point essentially is that I'm hoping he doesn't turn out like a Nate Pearson/Matt Bush type with the stuff on paper that doesn't quite translate to in game success
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2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I wondered that too, it came out yesterday at $25k however so yeah big underslot there -
On Saturday evening, the Brewers traded for relief pitcher Nick Mears from the Colorado Rockies, giving up Yujanyer Herrera and Bradley Blalock. Mears has a 5.56 ERA this season, which doesn’t jump off the page, but it does initially appear that he’s been burned to some extent by his defense, given his 2.70 FIP and impressive 28.1% strikeout rate. The Brewers pen struggled earlier in the year with getting that swing-and-miss element, but with Devin Williams's return, Joel Payamps finding some form and then Trevor Megill, the Brewers may have four elite strikeout merchants that they can deploy in situations such as the one Elvis Peguero struggled with on Saturday night to escape a jam. Some may be slightly perturbed by Mears being more effective in Colorado than he has been on the road, given Denver's friendliness to hitters. However, the biggest issue with playing at elevation isn’t always the elevation itself, so much as having to adjust with such frequency to how your pitches function at different elevations. He’s struggled more with walks while on the road, which lends some credence to this, but he's still kept up the gaudy strikeout numbers and he's given up just two home runs all year. He won't be back at Coors Field this season, so being able to have that consistency with how the pitches move should be beneficial to his command. What Makes Him Different? I’ll have to credit Matthew Trueblood for the observation that Mears's stuff has a very different profile from a lot of the Brewers relievers, who favor horizontal movement with their sweepers and two-seamers from lowish arm slots. With a fastball like his, Mears can still generate significant swing-and-miss, with the added advantage of that more downward action on his breaking pitches being conducive to ground balls and getting underneath the bat. Given the slider and curveball are slightly different speeds but have similar movement profiles, he may consider ditching one of them, and I’d advocate that it be the curveball, due to how much better he commands the slider (slider on the left, curveball on the right): The slider has better quality-of-contact metrics, in large part because of a tendency to hang the curveball more than he would like. When you narrow down more in terms of sequencing, when used after the four-seamer, the slider has been massively more effective. He hasn’t given up a single hard-hit ball this season on the slider, compared with a 17.6% barrel rate for the curveball. He’s thrown the curve a lot more in these situations, but it is something you may look to change. The Fastball Is Electric Mears real strength is his fastball, which has the type of movement you dream of in a late-inning reliever, and it really plays up when away from Coors Field. On the road this year, it averages 19” of induced vertical break (an elite number that creates an appearance of the pitch rising while it defies gravity) from a highish release slot. The real damage he does comes from his velocity and above-average extension, releasing the ball close to home plate in a way that makes it seem as though he’s throwing almost 98 mph on average. When located in the upper third of the zone (and away from Coors Field), Mears induces a whiff rate of 31.3% on the heater, again an elite number, and his slider can really play well off of that. It’s a blink-and-you-’ll-miss-it offering that’s incredibly effective, not just because of the swing and miss but based on how well it avoids barrels. A Word of Caution There are two factors that may hinder Mears with the Brewers. His four-seam fastball has been barreled up at almost double the rate away from Coors Field, despite the improved metrics on the pitch. This is where the consistency in the air/lack of elevation can hopefully make a big turnaround for him in terms of results, but a 24.2% barrel rate just will not play at this level. Then there are the walks. A late-inning reliever will give up runs every now and then, but they cannot afford to be walking people with regularity. Mears has walked hitters more than you would like, but there is a hope that, again, he can be more effective with a more consistent playing field. He overall has avoided barrels well enough to project he can be effective with an above-average walk rate, but it still needs to improve from where it is now, at a 10.3% walk rate. So How Shrewd Is This Pickup? Nick Mears has the kind of arm talent that’s reminiscent of Megill, with an elite fastball and quality breaking pitches that the Crew's pitching lab can get more out of than even his peripherals are suggesting. Yujanyer Herrera was a talented arm to give up, but the Brewers have a lot of such arms in the lower levels of the minors; they can afford to trade from a position of organizational depth. Given Mears has such a different look compared to everyone else (save Megill), and the best bullpens should have a variety of pitch shapes and angles, it may be a big boost if they use him well. They’ll need more from Mears than just looking pretty on paper, but the Brewers front office are excited about this pickup and the boost he can give them through 2027.
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Nick Mears may just be the option the Brewers need, with an electric fastball and some underrated breaking stuff. Some stats may give pause, but here’s why you should be excited about the Brewers' latest pickup. Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports On Saturday evening, the Brewers traded for relief pitcher Nick Mears from the Colorado Rockies, giving up Yujanyer Herrera and Bradley Blalock. Mears has a 5.56 ERA this season, which doesn’t jump off the page, but it does initially appear that he’s been burned to some extent by his defense, given his 2.70 FIP and impressive 28.1% strikeout rate. The Brewers pen struggled earlier in the year with getting that swing-and-miss element, but with Devin Williams's return, Joel Payamps finding some form and then Trevor Megill, the Brewers may have four elite strikeout merchants that they can deploy in situations such as the one Elvis Peguero struggled with on Saturday night to escape a jam. Some may be slightly perturbed by Mears being more effective in Colorado than he has been on the road, given Denver's friendliness to hitters. However, the biggest issue with playing at elevation isn’t always the elevation itself, so much as having to adjust with such frequency to how your pitches function at different elevations. He’s struggled more with walks while on the road, which lends some credence to this, but he's still kept up the gaudy strikeout numbers and he's given up just two home runs all year. He won't be back at Coors Field this season, so being able to have that consistency with how the pitches move should be beneficial to his command. What Makes Him Different? I’ll have to credit Matthew Trueblood for the observation that Mears's stuff has a very different profile from a lot of the Brewers relievers, who favor horizontal movement with their sweepers and two-seamers from lowish arm slots. With a fastball like his, Mears can still generate significant swing-and-miss, with the added advantage of that more downward action on his breaking pitches being conducive to ground balls and getting underneath the bat. Given the slider and curveball are slightly different speeds but have similar movement profiles, he may consider ditching one of them, and I’d advocate that it be the curveball, due to how much better he commands the slider (slider on the left, curveball on the right): The slider has better quality-of-contact metrics, in large part because of a tendency to hang the curveball more than he would like. When you narrow down more in terms of sequencing, when used after the four-seamer, the slider has been massively more effective. He hasn’t given up a single hard-hit ball this season on the slider, compared with a 17.6% barrel rate for the curveball. He’s thrown the curve a lot more in these situations, but it is something you may look to change. The Fastball Is Electric Mears real strength is his fastball, which has the type of movement you dream of in a late-inning reliever, and it really plays up when away from Coors Field. On the road this year, it averages 19” of induced vertical break (an elite number that creates an appearance of the pitch rising while it defies gravity) from a highish release slot. The real damage he does comes from his velocity and above-average extension, releasing the ball close to home plate in a way that makes it seem as though he’s throwing almost 98 mph on average. When located in the upper third of the zone (and away from Coors Field), Mears induces a whiff rate of 31.3% on the heater, again an elite number, and his slider can really play well off of that. It’s a blink-and-you-’ll-miss-it offering that’s incredibly effective, not just because of the swing and miss but based on how well it avoids barrels. A Word of Caution There are two factors that may hinder Mears with the Brewers. His four-seam fastball has been barreled up at almost double the rate away from Coors Field, despite the improved metrics on the pitch. This is where the consistency in the air/lack of elevation can hopefully make a big turnaround for him in terms of results, but a 24.2% barrel rate just will not play at this level. Then there are the walks. A late-inning reliever will give up runs every now and then, but they cannot afford to be walking people with regularity. Mears has walked hitters more than you would like, but there is a hope that, again, he can be more effective with a more consistent playing field. He overall has avoided barrels well enough to project he can be effective with an above-average walk rate, but it still needs to improve from where it is now, at a 10.3% walk rate. So How Shrewd Is This Pickup? Nick Mears has the kind of arm talent that’s reminiscent of Megill, with an elite fastball and quality breaking pitches that the Crew's pitching lab can get more out of than even his peripherals are suggesting. Yujanyer Herrera was a talented arm to give up, but the Brewers have a lot of such arms in the lower levels of the minors; they can afford to trade from a position of organizational depth. Given Mears has such a different look compared to everyone else (save Megill), and the best bullpens should have a variety of pitch shapes and angles, it may be a big boost if they use him well. They’ll need more from Mears than just looking pretty on paper, but the Brewers front office are excited about this pickup and the boost he can give them through 2027. View full article
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2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
That includes the overage -
2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
DeBerry has signed but the value hasn't been mentioned anywhere -
2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I wonderif say DeBerry signed for 400k, would the Brewers choose to go all in with 3.4m for Levonas (If that's even enough) or would they prefer spreading it round multiple picks? It's a lot to gamble on for one HS pitcher but such a talented arm -
The news about Christian Yelich's back injury doesn't sound good. The possibility of season-ending surgery has been mentioned, and should that happen, the Brewers would have a gaping hole in their lineup. They would need a consistent middle-of-the-lineup hitter with power. Where can they find one? Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports The best possible news for the Brewers would be for Christian Yelich to finally fix his long-term, nagging back issue, while still returning in time for September and/or October (assuming the Brewers reach the postseason). From Yelich’s quotes, however, it sounds like season-ending surgery is very much on the table, in which case the question turns to whether the Brewers' outfield and DH mix is sufficient for a team hoping to win a World Series. In the immediate future, in either case, there are likely to be more plate appearances for Jake Bauers, while the young quarter of Blake Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio roam the outfield grass and provide what should be elite defense. The problem is that Chourio is the only one you’d want at the plate in a big moment right now; there are substantial question marks over the other three. Frelick has been better in the last month, but still struggles to pose any extra-base threat. Mitchell is still hitting ground balls and whiffing a lot, while Perkins has a high strikeout rate and provides fairly minimal extra-base power, as well. Even taking into account the lack of form from some of the Brewers' streakier power hitters (which has resulted in the Brewers ranking 27th in home runs and 30th in doubles since Jun. 1), the lineup needs more thump. Regression won't take care of this. These players might. Jesse Winker Poetic irony at its finest, Jesse Winker has found the health that eluded him for much of last season and has been mashing all season, especially in July. His defense hasn’t been great, but his arm has been good, and he’s stolen 14 bases, with his average sprint speed rebounding substantially from its levels in 2023. In short, he looks healthy, and the bat looks to be getting better and better as the season goes on. Since Jun. 1, he has a .294/.414/.476 slash line, thanks in substantial part to crushing four-seamers, something he couldn't catch up to last season at all. Winker’s ending in a Milwaukee uniform last season wasn’t a fond one for fans or the player. He was made a scapegoat in the playoffs, introduced as a pinch-hitter to prolific booing. The Brewers may have been a year early on Winker, but his profile looks strong. He'd be quite the fit for replacing Yelich, given his elite chase rates, 97th-percentile walk rate and that sneaky left-handed power. He isn’t a raw slugger. He should be more consistent than that profile, as well as being the best like-for-like replacement you could get for Yelich. It’s very easy to picture Winker in a Brewers uniform come August. He won’t be too expensive as a rental, and therefore, he'd also free up the Brewers outfield mix for 2025 for a healthier Yelich to return. Brent Rooker Possibly the most intriguing bat available, Rooker can play the outfield, but given the Brewers' focus on run prevention, he’s likely to be purely a DH should they pursue him. Rooker is what the Brewers always hoped Keston Hiura could be, with a 31% strikeout rate that’s offset by monstrous power--as evidenced by his .290/.369/.574 line so far, with 23 home runs on the year. If you make a mistake, Rooker can punish it, and he could be the player that turns this Brewers lineup (with all its on base skills) into a legitimate threat. He elevates the ball extremely well, with a sweet spot launch angle of 35%, a hard hit rate of 51% and an elite barrel rate of 29.4%. It’s quite similar to Aaron Judge in some ways, but the contact rates are worrying: You could very easily get a cold stretch of baseball from Rooker against elite pitchers with the command to take advantage of those swing-and-miss tendencies, which is exactly what you would face in October. I'm not entirely convinced he’s what the Brewers need and adding in his controllability through 2027, the cost doesn’t entirely align with what the Brewers really need from this trade--which is help in the short term, and hopefully only in the short term. That being said, Rooker has the eighth-highest expected WOBA for a reason; this isn’t just a lucky first half. He hit 30 homers last year, too. Taylor Ward Ward is particularly interesting as a platoon option here, and it’s notable that the Brewers have struggled to hit southpaw pitchers this year. William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins haven’t had the expected production against left-handers, and it’s brought the Brewers down to Earth a little. This season, Ward is slashing .333/.382/.522 against lefties, with a 94.1 mph exit velocity and 28% barrel rate. He’s struggled against right-handers, but due to the depth of left-hitting outfielders the Brewers have, a right-handed platoon bat and/or pinch-hit option may fit the roster very nicely. A competent outfield defender to boot, he doesn’t necessitate the DH spot like Rooker or Winker may, and is significantly more affordable than Rooker. He elevates well, hits the ball hard consistently and fits a need, but he’s only hitting arbitration in 2025 and is likely going to cost more as a result of the controllability. All of that makes him less of a fit in my mind, unless the Brewers are trading from one of their own outfield crop. Randy Arozarena An electric player made for the big stage, Arozarena has struggled to start the year, but since the start of June, he has a .290/.402/.517 line, with an 1.173 OPS against left-handed pitchers and passable outfield defense. He’s wild, entertaining and controllable through 2025, but in a slightly down year, his value may be worth the expenditure. There aren’t many concerns about Arozarena when he hits like he has since Jun. 1, and he could be exactly the type of impact bat that not only keeps the Brewers ticking over into the playoffs, but can become a difference-maker in the postseason to a team that needs someone capable of that big hit. The Rays are pretty much out of the race, and there are strong rumors that Arozarena is on the trade block, but he won’t come cheaply. The Rays organization, as a whole, is smart enough to extract some high-value players in return. Will the Brewers be ready to make that big splash, for once? Joc Pederson (albeit unlikely) The Diamondbacks had been struggling mightily prior to June, but a hot stretch this month has left them half a game back of the Wild Card spots. Given their success last year from just such a position, it’s hard to imagine them not going for it. Pederson would be ideal for the Brewers, with a $12.5 million contract this season and mutual option for 2025 (which never seems to get picked up). He's shown some really massive power, and playoff pedigree to boot. There’s still potential if Arizona slump hard over the next week, but it’s becoming less likely. Pederson is hitting .273/.376/.492, helping to hold up the Diamondbacks offense against right-handers. He’s got big-game temperament and power the Brewers could really use. If he even remotely becomes available, the Brewers simply have to be in on him. So What's The Best Option? Given the lack of outfield options on the market, and the controllability needs for the Brewers, it would seem that Winker or Arozarena are the best options for the Brewers. Arozarena will be a tough get, with the Dodgers and other suitors in need of offensive reinforcements very interested in his bat, but the Brewers farm system is significantly better than theirs in terms of options. Winker will cost less, but can replicate the on-base skills with a smidgen less power than Yelich, Ward fits the lefty-mashing outfielder need well, but both he and Rooker will be expensive with their extensive team control. That may put the Brewers off, given the volatility and limitations of both bats. It’s a tough call, and the Brewers may simply look to make the postseason and work things from there, while retaining the outfield corps they have. More playing time for Gary Sánchez may help his bat come around, and a hot Hoskins, Willy Adames and Sánchez can absolutely carry a playoff-caliber team for a month. Which direction they go will be fascinating, but Yelich is going to be a massive loss for this Brewers team, and if they don’t replace him proactively, then the postseason ambitions will take a major hit. View full article
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How Do The Brewers Replace Christian Yelich If His Season Is Over?
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
The best possible news for the Brewers would be for Christian Yelich to finally fix his long-term, nagging back issue, while still returning in time for September and/or October (assuming the Brewers reach the postseason). From Yelich’s quotes, however, it sounds like season-ending surgery is very much on the table, in which case the question turns to whether the Brewers' outfield and DH mix is sufficient for a team hoping to win a World Series. In the immediate future, in either case, there are likely to be more plate appearances for Jake Bauers, while the young quarter of Blake Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Jackson Chourio roam the outfield grass and provide what should be elite defense. The problem is that Chourio is the only one you’d want at the plate in a big moment right now; there are substantial question marks over the other three. Frelick has been better in the last month, but still struggles to pose any extra-base threat. Mitchell is still hitting ground balls and whiffing a lot, while Perkins has a high strikeout rate and provides fairly minimal extra-base power, as well. Even taking into account the lack of form from some of the Brewers' streakier power hitters (which has resulted in the Brewers ranking 27th in home runs and 30th in doubles since Jun. 1), the lineup needs more thump. Regression won't take care of this. These players might. Jesse Winker Poetic irony at its finest, Jesse Winker has found the health that eluded him for much of last season and has been mashing all season, especially in July. His defense hasn’t been great, but his arm has been good, and he’s stolen 14 bases, with his average sprint speed rebounding substantially from its levels in 2023. In short, he looks healthy, and the bat looks to be getting better and better as the season goes on. Since Jun. 1, he has a .294/.414/.476 slash line, thanks in substantial part to crushing four-seamers, something he couldn't catch up to last season at all. Winker’s ending in a Milwaukee uniform last season wasn’t a fond one for fans or the player. He was made a scapegoat in the playoffs, introduced as a pinch-hitter to prolific booing. The Brewers may have been a year early on Winker, but his profile looks strong. He'd be quite the fit for replacing Yelich, given his elite chase rates, 97th-percentile walk rate and that sneaky left-handed power. He isn’t a raw slugger. He should be more consistent than that profile, as well as being the best like-for-like replacement you could get for Yelich. It’s very easy to picture Winker in a Brewers uniform come August. He won’t be too expensive as a rental, and therefore, he'd also free up the Brewers outfield mix for 2025 for a healthier Yelich to return. Brent Rooker Possibly the most intriguing bat available, Rooker can play the outfield, but given the Brewers' focus on run prevention, he’s likely to be purely a DH should they pursue him. Rooker is what the Brewers always hoped Keston Hiura could be, with a 31% strikeout rate that’s offset by monstrous power--as evidenced by his .290/.369/.574 line so far, with 23 home runs on the year. If you make a mistake, Rooker can punish it, and he could be the player that turns this Brewers lineup (with all its on base skills) into a legitimate threat. He elevates the ball extremely well, with a sweet spot launch angle of 35%, a hard hit rate of 51% and an elite barrel rate of 29.4%. It’s quite similar to Aaron Judge in some ways, but the contact rates are worrying: You could very easily get a cold stretch of baseball from Rooker against elite pitchers with the command to take advantage of those swing-and-miss tendencies, which is exactly what you would face in October. I'm not entirely convinced he’s what the Brewers need and adding in his controllability through 2027, the cost doesn’t entirely align with what the Brewers really need from this trade--which is help in the short term, and hopefully only in the short term. That being said, Rooker has the eighth-highest expected WOBA for a reason; this isn’t just a lucky first half. He hit 30 homers last year, too. Taylor Ward Ward is particularly interesting as a platoon option here, and it’s notable that the Brewers have struggled to hit southpaw pitchers this year. William Contreras and Rhys Hoskins haven’t had the expected production against left-handers, and it’s brought the Brewers down to Earth a little. This season, Ward is slashing .333/.382/.522 against lefties, with a 94.1 mph exit velocity and 28% barrel rate. He’s struggled against right-handers, but due to the depth of left-hitting outfielders the Brewers have, a right-handed platoon bat and/or pinch-hit option may fit the roster very nicely. A competent outfield defender to boot, he doesn’t necessitate the DH spot like Rooker or Winker may, and is significantly more affordable than Rooker. He elevates well, hits the ball hard consistently and fits a need, but he’s only hitting arbitration in 2025 and is likely going to cost more as a result of the controllability. All of that makes him less of a fit in my mind, unless the Brewers are trading from one of their own outfield crop. Randy Arozarena An electric player made for the big stage, Arozarena has struggled to start the year, but since the start of June, he has a .290/.402/.517 line, with an 1.173 OPS against left-handed pitchers and passable outfield defense. He’s wild, entertaining and controllable through 2025, but in a slightly down year, his value may be worth the expenditure. There aren’t many concerns about Arozarena when he hits like he has since Jun. 1, and he could be exactly the type of impact bat that not only keeps the Brewers ticking over into the playoffs, but can become a difference-maker in the postseason to a team that needs someone capable of that big hit. The Rays are pretty much out of the race, and there are strong rumors that Arozarena is on the trade block, but he won’t come cheaply. The Rays organization, as a whole, is smart enough to extract some high-value players in return. Will the Brewers be ready to make that big splash, for once? Joc Pederson (albeit unlikely) The Diamondbacks had been struggling mightily prior to June, but a hot stretch this month has left them half a game back of the Wild Card spots. Given their success last year from just such a position, it’s hard to imagine them not going for it. Pederson would be ideal for the Brewers, with a $12.5 million contract this season and mutual option for 2025 (which never seems to get picked up). He's shown some really massive power, and playoff pedigree to boot. There’s still potential if Arizona slump hard over the next week, but it’s becoming less likely. Pederson is hitting .273/.376/.492, helping to hold up the Diamondbacks offense against right-handers. He’s got big-game temperament and power the Brewers could really use. If he even remotely becomes available, the Brewers simply have to be in on him. So What's The Best Option? Given the lack of outfield options on the market, and the controllability needs for the Brewers, it would seem that Winker or Arozarena are the best options for the Brewers. Arozarena will be a tough get, with the Dodgers and other suitors in need of offensive reinforcements very interested in his bat, but the Brewers farm system is significantly better than theirs in terms of options. Winker will cost less, but can replicate the on-base skills with a smidgen less power than Yelich, Ward fits the lefty-mashing outfielder need well, but both he and Rooker will be expensive with their extensive team control. That may put the Brewers off, given the volatility and limitations of both bats. It’s a tough call, and the Brewers may simply look to make the postseason and work things from there, while retaining the outfield corps they have. More playing time for Gary Sánchez may help his bat come around, and a hot Hoskins, Willy Adames and Sánchez can absolutely carry a playoff-caliber team for a month. Which direction they go will be fascinating, but Yelich is going to be a massive loss for this Brewers team, and if they don’t replace him proactively, then the postseason ambitions will take a major hit.- 1 comment
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2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Jaron DeBerry confirmed sign, no contract value yet -
2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
That's entirely fair. I think, despite the frame an stuff that's already there the thing that get some most excited is the extension he gets. Making not just the fastball but the slider, change etc even nastier. A little sneak peak of something I've been looking into, but extension has a big impact on whiff rates. I took this random sample over 2023-today of breaking pitches with 2800+ RPM's, and have a look at the Whiff rates and swinging strike rates progressivly increasing. the same trend occurs for xERA and xFIP That extension makes me gaudy -
2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
I'm guessing they very much did, given the round he was taken in I'd imagine this is more due to a change in demands. Either way I'm not entirely convinced it's a big deal yet or just rumors, we'll likely find out today/tomorrow about Meccage and I expect both would be announced together a la Burke/Payne -
2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
$2.4m would be fine, I think it's if it starts approaching $3m is when the concern starts. We can afford around $5m on Meccage/Levonas with the ability to spend another $1m or so (provided DeBerry signs for around $300k or less) It's probably my breaking point for the whole thing, but if the Brewers walked away with these two + Broughton, along with Noah Wech, I'd be pretty happy. I wonder if he think he can be a top 10 pick in 2027 as a reason to go to college, but that's a long way off for a pitcher when injuries can strike at any time. Losing out on one extra late rounder because of Levonas changing his demands is a tough balance, but if its a round 18-20 player you may just have to, Nunnallee was always a bit of a pipe dream -
2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
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2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
The Brewers have $2,341,620 left to go over slot with. I can see large bonuses for Meccage and Levonas but at this point I think there's going to be comfortably over $1m of bonus pool money available to spread around day 3 picks -
2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Sloan appears to have demanded $3m which would be way over slot for his pick, first round value and the Brewers must have believed the a combo of Levonas or Meccage plus another $1m for later rounds like Broughton was more valuable than Sloan on his own especially given the volatility of HS arms -
2024 Draft Signings Thread
Jake McKibbin replied to Jake McKibbin's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
It was more a general guide but yeah they'll get sizeable bonuses thought the rounds 2 & 3 slots have hefty enough slot value to start with -
The Brewers are in need of quality (as opposed to quantity) to reinforce their playoff-aspiring pitching staff. The good news is that they may have the talent internally to bolster their roster. Have they what they need to get by without a major addition? Image courtesy of © Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports With the bullpen faltering of late and crying out for someone who can lock down the eighth and ninth innings, the Brewers may need an arm that works in high leverage. Hoby Milner has been snakebitten so far this season, while Joel Payamps and Elvis Peguero have proved unreliable and taken a step back from their 2023 performances. Even Trevor Megill and Bryan Hudson have shown signs of wear and tear in recent games. They also are in dire need of someone with the type of elite stuff that can start games and get several times through the order while not relying entirely on their defense. So where might these upgrades come from? The Bullpen With one of the most heavily-used bullpens in baseball, it's no surprise that things have looked a little shakier in July than the lockdown versions in earlier months. The Brewers have incredible depth, but a lack of minor-league options among those players does hamper them slightly. Peguero is the only core piece who can be optioned, as of now. Peguero has seen a lot of action in the 8th inning of late, but has been as up-and-down as they come, with a propensity for ground balls and walks that can lead to some blow-up innings. Thankfully, the most obvious “upgrade” may be able to fix this. Devin Williams is likely due back after another three to four relief outings, at most--perhaps by the middle of next week, if things go well in recovering from each appearance. The fastball was a tick down (with a little less extension and IVB than usual) in his latest rehab outing, but it’s not a massive difference. Hopefully, it will tick up again as he loosens and limbers. More importantly, the changeup was as good as ever, with that unique two-plane break, and he was commanding it to the edges of the strike zone well. It won’t be long at all until Williams returns, which can push Megill to a setup role and (hopefully) solidify the closers (plural) spots a little. Megill has worked fewer innings than any other full-year reliever so far, and his stuff is still electric, meaning this recent stretch might just be a small blip. The Brewers may have that dominant closing pair that can reduce games to a seven-inning affair for the opposition again soon. Hopefully, that will allow more leverage to use the likes of Hudson more sparingly because of the limited workload on the Megill/Williams pairing thus far. Having that quality in even lower-leverage spots will be a real boost to the scrappy offense the Crew have this season. The other option is very out-there, but brings a ton of excitement. Craig Yoho was the 8th-round selection out of Arkansas in 2023, and not many people realized just how electric his stuff was. With a screwball/changeup to rival Williams's (accompanied by a boomerang sweeper and a sinker), Yoho has a variety of looping pitches that work in contrasting ways to tunnel together. He was aggressively promoted to Double-A Biloxi, and has shown himself almost too good for the level: 0.42 FIP 41.6% Whiff rate xFIP 1.22 45% Strikeout rate 0.505 OPS Yoho has been an absolute stud this season, and there’s a very tangible reason the Brewers should believe he could get outs right now in the major leagues. It may not necessarily be immediately in that high-leverage role, but he has the stuff to do it, and even as that unorthodox right-handed reliever, he can be really effective in the middle innings or to clean up messes on the base paths with the swing-and-miss stuff. The Brewers have a lot of depth in their bullpen, and are already struggling with the lack of optionability. They may even end up trading some of these players at the deadline, to teams needing bullpen reinforcements, and if they do (especially given the expanded 28-man September rosters), we may see Yoho getting a shot. The Starting Rotation The one ingredient the Brewers are missing right now is a lights-out starter who can wipe out opposing hitters with nasty stuff. Everyone knows the name Jacob Misiorowski and what he can do, but it's an issue on which I vacillate often. First among these is the workload concern with Misiorowski pitching, having already passed the 70-inning mark he reached last season before getting shut down due to “arm fatigue”, on top of some poorer performances when pushed to four days' rest instead of five. There’s a concern the increased pressure and added stress may end horribly for the Brewers in this sense. Then, there’s the fact that he has been more susceptible to the long ball since he’s found the strike zone more. His last two starts have been magnificent, but he had two separate appearances in June in which he gave up three home runs, which raises the question of whether he’s truly ready for the jump. The Southern League is a very pitcher-friendly environment, especially this year, and it might be leading us to view Misiorowski more favorably than he's really earning. With all that taken into account, though, there is an undeniable sense that he’s growing into his own. His fastball is getting quicker as the year goes on, while the control has turned with the weather. Since Jun. 1, he has just a 7.2% walk rate, and he hasn’t walked more than two hitters in any of his last seven outings. Also, during that span, he has a 34% whiff rate (which has gotten even better in July), and he worked into the 7th inning for the first time in his professional career. Matt Arnold has made it clear that the Brewers are seriously considering promoting Misiorowski in the second half of the season, while also being mindful of the injury risk that’s there already. Ideally, I would love it if Misiorowski was an amalgamation of the relief and starter role, perhaps going through four to five innings in a game in September and getting a taste for the big leagues--while not pushing too hard on the results element of the process to keep the stress levels down. He’s very, very unlikely to be going six innings at a time or be treated like a regular starter, but he may be able to go a couple of times through the batting order, and with his profile, that can be incredibly valuable in late September and October. Finally, there’s the eventual return of DL Hall. For all of my optimism about the improved pitch shape and the velocity on his fastball returning somewhat, there’s a nagging concern about the results he’s going to get in the majors. He hasn’t been overmatching hitters the way an 80-grade fastball and 60/70-grade breaking pitches should, and it worries me what’s going to happen if he returns to the rotation. His last start against Norfolk wasn’t ideal, and perhaps suggested more of a long relief profile (he went just 49 pitches), but he struggled to find the zone and has been getting fouled off a lot, dragging his pitch count up. I think he can be serviceable at the big-league level, but I’m not entirely sure the dreamed-upon elite version of him as a starter will come through until 2025 at this point after the knee surgery and some offseason work. Is It Enough? I still think the Brewers may need someone who can provide some length in their rotation, and Erick Fedde may be the perfect target. Assuming they won’t go big on Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal and will rely on development of their top prospects to remain competitive in the coming years, Fedde possibly is the best option in terms of team control. He's signed through 2025 on an affordable contract, while providing excellence in all facets that can be elevated further by the Brewers' run prevention unit. Aaron Civale could produce similar results, if he can keep his command in check, but DL Hall hasn’t convinced me that I’d want him starting in October. Joe Ross getting lit up by the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate (and Jackson Holliday, in particular) doesn’t assuage many fears, either. The Brewers have strength in depth coming into the second half, but they could really do with some strength in isolation to go with it. View full article
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