Jake McKibbin

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the ground running on the basepaths this season, with an aggressive approach yielding 16 stolen bases and just two outs in their first eight games. How much will this impact their wins total at the season's end? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Increased team speed and athleticism has impelled an increase in aggressiveness from the Brewers so far in 2024. With a selection of personnel capable of swiping bags, and after seeing what havoc teams like the Diamondbacks and the Reds caused last season, it seems the Brewers are determined to tap into another source of value. The question is, how impactful will this be? Personnel In 2023, Craig Counsell had Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Owen Miller and Joey Wiemer as the team's leading base stealers, with the final three struggling to get on base enough to use that speed. This season, they’ve added a 40-steal threat in Jackson Chourio, a first baseman (in Jake Bauers) who has swiped one so far, and replaced Wiemer with Sal Frelick (fairly similar) and Miller with Oliver Dunn (who is markedly faster). Garrett Mitchell may return in the middle of May to add further potential on the basepaths to this mix, but for now, the combination of Chourio, Yelich, Turang, Frelick, Dunn and the occasional effort from the likes of Bauers and Willy Adames can make them a dynamic team in that facet. Can They Get On Base? Perhaps the biggest question mark, in this instance, is whether or not Dunn, Chourio, Turang and Frelick can continue to get on base enough to use their feet. Turang is showing early promise in his bat-to-ball skills, though there is likely to be some regression as his BABIP evens out. Chourio has also been slightly fortunate with infield singles, whereas Frelick has been on the other end of that and hasn't gotten the reward for some of his well-hit balls in the last seven days. Dunn is squaring up the ball, but also sports a 29% strikeout rate on the year to date. Currently, this quartet are all quite fresh in the major leagues, meaning a lot of variance is to be expected in their performances, and their combined on-base rate is an above-average .350. If they can keep this north of .330 over a full season, there will be a lot of havoc to come from all four speedsters, and that volume of opportunities will translate into more sheer runs and wins added. Efficiency The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks were both elite base-stealing teams last year, but they had very different values as a result of how often each was caught. The Reds stole 190 bases, but got caught 48 times, a success rate south of the league's average (which was in excess of 80%), whereas the D’Backs stole 166 bases but were caught just 26 times, good for an 86% success rate. The reason this is important is because general calculations estimate a player caught stealing to lose double the runs one successful stolen base creates. FanGraphs says every stolen base is worth 0.3 runs, whereas to be caught stealing is worth -0.6 runs. The 2023 Brewers stole bases at an 82% rate, a fairly middling (though still value-positive) percentage, but have started the season getting caught just twice in 18 attempts, for an 89% success rate. They have faced some lesser arms in doing so, but to picture them finishing the season with an 85% or better rate would be entirely feasible. How Much Value Does This Add? In 2023, the Brewers were just six runs above average for their baserunning exploits, whereas Arizona totaled 17.5 while attempting fewer stolen bases than the Brewers likely will this season (Corbin Carroll was almost a third of their threat on his own). Let's make the following assumptions: The Brewers are attempting to steal at a rate similar to that at which the Reds attempted to do so last season, as there will be some regression from their current rate of over two per game. A little over 1.5 tries per game would equate to around 250 steal attempts this season. A success rate of 85% on stolen base attempts The value of one steal being 0.3 runs, with a caught stealing being -0.6 runs (per FanGraphs) Using the Pythagorean runs calculator that suggests just under nine runs scored would equate to a one-win swing (ie 81-81 to 82-80 record) based on 2023 numbers. The Brewers would, then, successfully steal 213 bases and get caught just 37 times next season. Per FanGraphs's method, that would bring them to 42 runs in total on the season, an improvement of 22 runs from last season. Using the Pythagorean method (which doesn’t account for situational baserunning and stealing), that would estimate the Brewers have an additional 2.5 wins coming this season, compared to last year, not factoring in the use of this speed to take extra bases on singles or avoid double plays. All in all, it seems the Brewers may have found a way to gain significantly around the margins, and that can only be a good omen for this season. It’s one big change for which the projection systems preseason may not have adequately accounted, and has certainly been advantageous so far in their cluster of close wins to open the season. We can hedge a bit on all of this, understanding that the league might find new ways to hold runners better under the new rules than they did in 2023 and that the attempt rate might thus come down even further from where it is now, but some substantial value remains for the Crew, even so. What do you think of the Brewers' new approach on the bases? Did you expect it to be worth this much extra value? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

CBA duplicating the post, but Ashcraft is hittable, and that cutter command looked poor his first start. Yelich has been monstering anything resembling a meatball so far, and if Ashby can just keep the crew in it and keep the ball on the ground, I think there's a decent chance today

I think it's more to do with the increased usage of the sinker up in the zone to keep hitters honest, if he kept everything down then it's less of an issue, but he may as well fire that four seam above the strike zone to keep them honest and may get better results because of it

Abner Uribe’s four-seam fastball had outstanding results in 2023, but he seems to have shelved it in 2024. Will this help or hinder him as a closer? Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports Abner Uribe’s four-seamer was the headline-making pitch for him last season, averaging triple-digit velocity and topping out at 103.3 miles per hour. Hitters had an expected slugging percentage of just .254, so it was a highly effective pitch that allowed him to target the top of the strike zone with more effectiveness. So why would he put it on the back burner? The Movement Characteristics Although Uribe has searing pace on his four-seam fastball, unfortunately, the rest of the movement profile isn’t so impressive. A large part of its effectiveness likely comes from hitters sitting on his sinker and slider, because he generates almost no rise on the pitch at all with just 11” of induced vertical break (2023 league average: 15.5”) and a vertical approach angle of -5.23° (2023 league average -4.78°). He generated just a 10% whiff rate behind it, so over a larger sample size there is a possibility that it could be hit hard. This is a good example of his four-seamer, in that although it tunnels well with his slider, it isn’t getting the swing and miss it should. Uribe dotted this four-seamer at 102 mph, high and tight on the black, and yet it’s fouled off with relative ease. Bryce Harper is a phenomenal hitter, but Uribe doesn’t use this pitch often enough to see hitters sitting on it, and there is definite concern if his location errs. Comparable Four-Seamers A good comparison for this is Hunter Greene, who has the same incredibly high velocity with slightly less movement than Uribe. Last year, Greene's fastball showed a propensity to get those swings and misses, but also got hit hard, with hitters going .265 (batting average)/.518 (slugging) against it, with a 91-mph average exit velocity and 20° launch angle. Anything over the plate got squared up. As a late-inning reliever, the one thing Uribe has to limit is the home run ball, especially as he can get a little bit wild and issue some free passes. In the crunch of a late-game situation with a thin lead, a walk that puts a runner aboard and a long ball on its heels can be devastating. Uribe doesn't have Greene' margin for error. The Two-Pitch Arsenal Is Still Filthy A two-pitch mix isn’t always ideal, but when both offerings are truly elite, it becomes less relevant. Abner Uribe threw some of the most disgusting sinkers I’ve ever seen last season, capped off by this: The movement he generates while touching triple digits is awe-inspiring, and the amount of run is almost comparable to a changeup, making it a potentially deadly out pitch to left-handed batters. With a 57% ground ball rate and a 22% swing-and-miss rate, it’s an incredible offering to both right- and left-handed hitters. To go away from righthanders, Uribe’s slider is also one of the nastiest of its kind, eliciting a number of egregious chases last season. Hitters swung and missed 58% of the time, thanks to the prodigious break achieved at almost 90 mph on average, it’s a wiffle-ball offering that Uribe can go to again and again. Sticking to this sinker-slider mixture also means plenty of ground balls, so Uribe might be able to induce a key double play to escape jams at times. The issue is that, without the four-seamer, there's little vertical contrast to his repertoire. He might induce a lot of weak contact, but not miss enough bats, because the sinker doesn't set up the slider for whiffs as well as the four-seamer could. Uribe seems destined to get the lion's share of closing opportunities this season, albeit with a sprinkling of Joel Payamps and Trevor Megill in that role, too. The simplified arsenal seems like it could benefit him and remove a pitch that looked likely for regression this season. What do you think of high-leverage pitchers with a shorter arsenal? Can they remain as effective? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. View full article

Christian Yelich has started the 2024 season looking remarkably like the long-lost, best version of himself, smashing two home runs in his first five games. Even better, it may be here to stay, as a result of the pitch selection adjustments he’s shown so far. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports For years, the Christian Yelich conundrum has boiled down to whether or not he can steer clear of ground balls, because his power (when he gets it in the air) is truly immense. This season, he may have found a formula to get back to that, and it involves his plate discipline. He still has a healthy habit of swiping below the strike zone, but elsewhere, the changes are monumental. Chasing Inside In his prime, MVP-caliber years of 2018 and 2019, Yelich could do damage all over the plate, but his main sources of excellence were in pulling balls over the heart of the plate, and going to the opposite field on balls on the outer third. He could pull balls thigh-high on the inner third, but other than that, he struggled to damage here. As you can see in 2023, the further inside Yelich chased, the more common the ground balls became, and he chased a lot in this area: Fast-forward to 2024, and Yelich has taken an altogether different approach; he’s yet to chase a ball either inside or above the strike zone this season. Not only is Yelich laying off these pitches inside, but notice that his swing rates are highest in the same areas as in the halcyon days. He’s being more selective, and honing in on those pitches he can elevate more often. He's taking more pitches than he did in his hay day, swinging less often at first pitches than has been his norm since 2020, but amalgamating the plate discipline and eye with an ability to mash mistakes can bring Yelich closer to his former MVP performance levels, even if it’s in a slightly different way. Speaking of mashing… Crushing Mistakes Something Yelich has struggled to do over the last few seasons is square up those mistake pitches, allowing for too much sub-optimal contact. This season, in the early stages, that’s changed: Yelich has been absolutely torching balls thrown over the heart of the plate, and I’d wager that he may extend that to the outer half, too, if not for the lack of outer-third pitches seen so far this year. On middle-middle pitches, he’s averaging 106-mph exit velocities with a 17.7-degree launch angle. As previously mentioned, ground balls have been a soul destroyer for Yelich in recent years, but a big advantage to his reduced chase rates has been an uptick in elevated balls, especially in the middle and bottom halves of the zone. It’s very early for this statistic, in particular, given its dispersion across three different markers, but Yelich currently has a sweet spot rate of 31.3%, considerably up from his 26% average since 2020, while also producing a launch angle of 12.1 degrees. If Christian Yelich can keep this even in double digits, this season can be absolute carnage. One final indicator: Yelich is often lauded for his “opposite-field approach” by some commentators. However, his best seasons have come when he abandons this in favor of more of a pull-happy model. So far this year, Yelich has done exactly that, and look how neatly this blends into 2018/19: In terms of his plate discipline, his approach to those pitches he can attack, and his ability to execute and elevate, Christian Yelich looks primed to take another step closer to his former dominant self. Health, as always, will be a big factor for the Brewers' main man, but 2024 may finally be the year Christian Yelich carries this offense to a whole other level. What do you think of Yelich so far? Can you feel that glimmer of hope spurting in your chest? Let us know in the comments below! View full article

Completely agree. A .585 OPS to a .685 OPS is a massive jump, and he's definitely capable of that. The AB against Stewart demonstrated just how much easier he's finding it to make contact this season

Glad you liked it! Yeah I like the protection this year too, lefties really did a number on him last season. He has had some soft contact but also some better contact than I expected and that has me slightly more optimistic. That single off the high fastball yesterday was such a positive sign for him. I'm maybe not quite so optimistic on the power front, as .260-.280 with 20 homers and his speed is an .800+ OPS and I'm not sure he's wuite capable of that without sacrificing those contact skills. You're right about his adjustments in the minors, seemed to happen at each spot after half a season.

Brice Turang has had a stunning start to 2024, and seems to have shored up some of the issues that plagued him last season. Can he sustain at least average offensive output, based on what we've seen? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports When Pat Murphy commented during spring training about Brice Turang taking a quantum leap forward this season, he drew some derision from myself and many other Brewers fans. In the first four games, however, Turang has looked like a totally different player--one much more akin to the talent scouts have touted since he was drafted in 2018. Elite defense and a strong hit tool with great baserunning instincts add up to an effective everyday big-league player, but how is Turang performing better this season? The High Fastball In 2023, one of Turang’s biggest issues came in how he dealt with the four-seam fastball at the top of the zone. He swung and missed 18.2% of the time, while fouling off these pitches a further 53.9% of the time, meaning fewer than 28% of his swings at upper-third fastballs were put into play. Of these, with just an 86.6-mph average exit velocity, he couldn’t do anything with the ball, resulting in a lot of cheap outs and a weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of just .275. A lot of this was a result of an uppercut swing, whereby he swung underneath the ball with regularity. This season, as a result of some of the changes to his hand position, the size of his bat knob, and (I’m sure) other tweaks, the bat path is a lot flatter through the zone, allowing him to get on top of those high four-seamers. As a result, early on, you can see how this has reduced his swing and miss in the upper third: Pitchers' go-to sequence for Turang last year seemed to be fastballs up to get ahead, and then put him away when he chased and missed below the zone. It happened over and over again, so being able to avoid those misses and fouls and force the pitchers above the zone to get these results will help him get into more favorable counts; he should even walk more. A higher on-base percentage brings about chances to use his speed to the devastating effect we’ve seen so far, as you can see below on a pitch that he wouldn’t have gotten close to last season: The Problems Outside The Zone (and a word of caution) Last season, breaking pitches below the strike zone were almost a guaranteed out against Turang. He whiffed on 70% of his swings on such offerings. He has only faced 11 such pitches so far this season, chasing five and missing on one of them. This is an incredibly small sample size, and while it does suggest he can maybe be more effective in two-strike counts in these scenarios, there isn’t enough evidence yet to know for sure. The good news is that Turang didn’t chase all that much in this area last year, proving much more susceptible to pitches inside or above the strike zone. This is a trend that seems to be continuing this season, so again, that chase rate and the corresponding contact issues it will bring are a source of potential regression. If he can maintain the flatter bat path, though, it should allow him to stay in the at-bat a whole lot better and shouldn’t be the end of the world for him. So Can He Be A League-Average Hitter? The BABIP of .700 isn’t sustainable, and he’s not looking likely to hit for more extra bases, either. That being said, he had an 87.5% stolen base rate last year, so he doesn’t need that power to be a solid offensive contributor for the Brewers. He’s also improved in the following areas (again SSS alert): 89.4 mph average exit velocity on non-bunts (+3.6 mph) Sweet spot rate 40% (+9.9%) Forward velocity 80.1 mph (+4.9 mph) Swing and Miss Rate 11.8% (- 9.8%) Pitches Per Plate Appearance 4.20 (+ 0.21) These are all signs of a hitter providing better at-bats, with a better idea of which pitches he can square up and which ones he can’t, along with a better ability to find the outfield grass. Turang is unlikely to be a 110 wRC+ hitter, but there is a definite chance he can find that 95-100 wRC+ mark with his baserunning capabilities added thereto. Alongside the incredible defense, you’re looking at a solid 3+ WAR player if he can maintain this standard. What do you think of Turang's start to the season? Can you see meaningful changes, or is this just another early-season smokescreen? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

The Milwaukee Brewers' über prospect’s MVP potential comes from his latent power, but his circumjacent tools--elite speed, great defense and impressive strike-zone coverage--were on full display this weekend. The floor is higher than most predicted, and his value is even higher as a result. While Jackson Chourio’s surface-level statistics look just fine, it was his speed that really shone in producing a 5-12 weekend, with a stolen base and a double. Some of the underlying batted-ball metrics, however, aren’t quite so hot (small sample size alert here): 79 mph average exit velocity -11.1° launch angle .120 xBA 77.8% ground ball rate The long and short of it is that Chourio didn’t obliterate the baseball in the batter's box. This isn’t an indictment of Chourio, though. In fact, it’s a positive. It shows he can grind his way to contributing offensively even when he’s not squaring the ball up, something many heavily hyped phenoms have struggled with in recent seasons. It’s unrealistic to expect the bat to catch fire before the All-Star break, though given how quickly Chourio has adapted at every other level he’s reached, it could happen. When he does figure that side of things out and start accessing his power more frequently, his stock will skyrocket. It's important to keep in mind that, until the timing clicks as a hitter, there will be ups and downs in Chourio's numbers, and his current .556 BABIP is hilariously unsustainable. Due to his speed, that figure will likely be higher than most, though, and it's that point that hammers home how impactful he can be even on an off day. Just How Influential Was He On Opening Weekend? A walk and stolen base to start your MLB career is a great start for someone who chased a lot in the minors in 2023. That's what Chourio did in the first inning Friday. From then on, that speed really showed, as he beat out multiple infield dribblers and did this for his first RBI--on what, for almost any other runner, would be an easy double play: Infielders are going to have to hustle with Chourio, who may be the fastest player on the Brewers (which is saying something, on a team that features Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, and Garrett Mitchell, to name but a few). Fresh off a 40-steal season in the minors, he’s going to cause havoc on the basepaths. For a Brewers team that prides itself on defensive abilities, however, this is arguably of more importance: Coming into the season, Chourio had raised some questions during spring training that perhaps his defense wasn’t as elite as some scouts had thought. While some of the routes he took to fly balls were slightly unconventional, he silenced his critics on the first day, with two magnificent catches (one of which is the one above) in an environment where wind was playing havoc with long fly balls. Chourio looked great, and his speed made up for some of the route issues that he will iron out with time and experience in the outfield. MLB Has a History of Sheltering Promising Young Players Since 1999, there have been a number of big helium prospects coming up the big leagues--even before the bat was ready--on the theory that their defense can add significant value anyway. Here are some of the rookies involved: Addison Russell - 2015, Chicago Cubs Elvis Andrus - 2009, Texas Rangers Adrián Beltré - 1999, LA Dodgers Gleyber Torres - 2018, NY Yankees Cristian Guzmán - 1999, Minnesota Twins Of particular note here are the 2018 Yankees and 2015 Cubs. Both of these teams had playoff aspirations and still made room for young players with a solid defensive floor who were still developing as hitters. Torres ended up posting a 121 WRC+ in 2018, and ended up moving up out of the eighth and ninth spots as the season wore on, but he began it under the aegis of the rest of the Yankees lineup. Russell was a below-average hitter, but one of the best defensive middle infielders in baseball in 2015. It was this weekend that the depth of Jackson Chourio’s tool bag hit home. Every player goes through ups and down in their production at the plate, even the best of them. Chourio’s raw speed will allow him to contribute to the team during those down periods, a rare sight in today’s game. He’s a true five-tool player, and when those tools all work in tandem, the league had better be ready. View full article

Six innings. One hit. One walk. Eight strikeouts. Armed with a fastball that puts even Gerrit Cole's elite offering to shame, here's how Freddy Peralta dominated against the Mets on Opening Day. Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports There were plenty of concerns coming into opening day with Freddy Peralta leading the Brewers rotation, perhaps justifiable. The season is long, but he demonstrated why the Brewers ' decision-makers have such faith in him on Friday afternoon. Some early struggles when ahead in the count allowed the Mets back into the at-bats with some wayward off-speed stuff, and Starling Marte punished an inner half 3-2 pitch. Following the second inning, however, was pure filth, retiring 13 hitters in a row as a large result of that magnificent fastball. The Fastball Metrics Peralta regularly used his four-seam fastball, so it played a big part in his success. It accounted for 52 of his 92 pitches on Friday, but it’s tough to move away from something that was putting up some of the gaudiest pitching metrics I’ve seen on a four-seamer. Over his six innings, here are a few statistics showing just how unhittable that fastball was: -3.7° Vertical Approach Angle (Led the league in 2023 at -3.88°. No other pitcher was above -4°) 18.7” Induced Vertical Break (IVB) (2023 average for Peralta was 15.2”; only three pitchers in 2023 averaged more than 18.7”) Between these two metrics, Freddy’s fastball will have created a true rising effect, causing swing and miss after swing and miss of hitters getting underneath the ball. A prime example is the above from Pitching Ninja. Peralta’s seventh strikeout came on a low four-seamer that froze Baty with its vertical carry, and then the high fastball to Harrison Bader stayed on a plane that he couldn’t get close to. One other point of note was how much horizontal movement Freddy Peralta was getting. It’s quite rare to see high IVB and Horizontal break numbers on the same pitch, however Peralta’s 8.5” of break would have placed him 12th ahead of Gerrit Cole last season, and almost two inches of run more than he averaged in 2023. In fact, Gerrit Cole of 2023 may be the most apt comparison for just how good Freddy’s four-seam was on opening day per the underlying numbers, and he still paled in comparison: Cole - 17,5" IVB, 8.4" HB, 4.53° VAA, 96.7 mph average effective velocity Peralta - 18.7" IVB, 8.5" HB, -3.72° VAA, 95.1mph average effective velocity Where Can He Improve? Peralta’s slider was often uncompetitive in the earlier innings, showing at times just how effective it can be alongside how wild it can be. A big difference between the new ace’s first and second-half results last year was how he narrowed down on the uncompetitive pitches when ahead in the count, but against the Mets, six of his 21 sliders were “uncompetitive” pitches and allowed their hitters back into counts when they should have been put away. The home run to Starling Marte was one of these occasions, going from an 0-2 to a 3-2 count off the back of poor breaking pitches before the big hit came, and it’s something Peralta will need to tighten up on moving forwards.The strong defense behind him did also play a part in his one-hit performance, with Jackson Chourio making right field look markedly simpler than Marte did amongst the sunshine and heavy winds. All that being said, this was a tone setting performance from Freddy Peralta. And the best may still be to come. View full article

When he toes the rubber for the first pitches of the Milwaukee Brewers' 2024 season this week, Freddy Peralta will do so with a slider that represents his steady evoluation into a legitimate ace. Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK Fastball Freddy Peralta gained his name from an electric heater, but his slider has been an elite swing-and-miss pitch for several years now. It profiled as more of a sweeper entering 2023, but a mid-season tweak allowed him to sacrifice horizontal movement for greater control, greater vertical drop and a slight increase in velocity that paved the way to big results in the second half. The Movement Profile As you can see below, Peralta’s slider undertook some significant alterations around June 2023, with greater velocity and a more vertical shape. The slight changes may not seem like much, but together, they present an intriguing combination. A low-speed slider that drops early is easier to spot from a hitter’s vantage point, while extra speed usually means a pitch will drop less. By increasing both, Peralta achieved that much sought-after sharp, late break that leaves hitters with no time to adjust their swing and make contact, increasing its effectiveness. The best way to see this is the angle at which the pitch enters the strike zone, where because the break is later, achieving that amount of movement would mean the ball is arcing downward at a steeper angle compared to a slower slider with the same vertical drop. Vertical velocity vector as the pitch crosses the zone will show just how sharply that pitch is moving downward, and for Peralta that velocity increased by 15% from 13.2 ft/sec in April to 15.2 ft/sec in August, allowing him to get underneath the barrel more often. As a result, his ground ball rate rose from just 25% in the first half against this slider to 52.3% in the second half, helping him keep the ball in the park and on the infield dirt. The Corresponding Command Improvements The other noticeable improvement for Peralta came in his command of the pitch in the second half, especially down in the strike zone. Even in the seven to eight degrees of horizontal break (as he was throwing earlier in the season), you can see Peralta was leaving pitches regularly in the middle of the strike zone. A major cause for this was the erratic nature of the spin profile, with Peralta finding some pitches didn’t come out of the hand consistently in the same way. Then, when they didn’t move as expected (especially in regard to their vertical drop), they stayed in the middle of the strike zone to get hammered. Tightening up the slider has resulted in a far more consistent pitch movement and, critically, the extra drop on his slider has kept him down in or below the strike zone more often. The knock-on effect of all this is that Freddy Peralta is hanging fewer breaking pitches, and giving up fewer home runs. The above shows the movement on Peralta’s pitches in 2023 in the first two months compared to the last two, and you can see just how much tighter the grouping in August and September was. As a result, Peralta will find it easier to command his slider, keep it down and give up less power. When he hung that slider, he had a xWOBA of .630 in 2023, with an average exit velocity of 102.2 mph, but when he stayed away from that middle-middle zone, this dropped to just 84.9 mph. Staying out of the center is absolutely key to his success, and increasing the command plus dropping the location is why his slider had such a strong turnaround in 2023. Peralta is the Brewers' Opening Day starter for 2024, currently slated to perform against the New York Mets (though rain may decide whether that start comes on Thursday or Friday). His slider was a huge reason for his development as a pitcher in the latter half of 2023, and the best news is that it appeared to be a consistent and repeatable change. We can expect great things from him in 2024. View full article

Not CY level at all.. but the 3.5-3.8 ERA I think is doable

This is a really good breakdown of it, you're absolutely right about young rotation though I'd say one of them needs an ERA starting with a "3" I do think we'll need a "star" this year in terms of a 5+ WAR guy as some players are going to fall off, the question is where it comes from. Love the breakdown of this!

With Opening Day imminent, the Milwaukee Brewers have a youthful, talented roster, but one with a minimal track record. What (or who) needs to go right this season for the team to maintain a 90-win pace? Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports Pat Murphy said this weekend that almost half of his initial roster will never have been on an Opening Day squad before, highlighting just how raw his team is. They have a lot of potential, and whether that’s unlocked will be key to their success this season. Quality at the Front of the Rotation Interestingly enough, the Brewers' rotation wasn’t particularly effective in the first half of the 2023 season--at least not the front end of Brandon Woodruff (injured), Corbin Burnes (3.94 ERA) and Freddy Peralta (4.70 ERA). By contrast, Colin Rea and Julio Teherán did an outstanding job early on. It could be argued, especially with Teherán, that the Brewers struck it lucky, and that that’s unlikely to happen this season. As such, the high-strikeout pitchers need to perform, and a lot of that onus will fall on Peralta. The new ace’s second-half stat line went like this: 2.81 ERA 36.3 K% 2.54 xFIP 0.88 WHIP In short, Fastball Freddy was dialed in, and the Brewers are going to need to see significantly more starts at this level now that Burnes and Woodruff are non-factors for 2024. Then come the other two high-ceiling arms, both of whom can elicit tantalizing numbers of swings and misses. Aaron Ashby and DL Hall have some of the nastiest pitches in baseball, but it all hinges on their command. Hall, in particular, showed vast improvements in that regard with the Orioles at the tail end of 2023, while Ashby is still in question. For both, consistency from start to start may be a concern. The Brewers' rotation looks a hell of a lot sturdier if you can fit between them in behind Peralta and push Wade Miley, Colin Rea, et al. down in the pecking order. It’s a lofty goal, but if Ashby and Hall can give the club 200 innings of around a 3.50 ERA, then this team takes on a whole new shape. Health permitting, I would expect both of them to grow as the season goes on, leaving the Brewers stronger at the back end of the campaign. The Brewers need some high-octane stuff for their number-two starter, and between Ashby and Hall, that void could be filled. Robert Gasser’s Durability “Bob Gas” is likely to be up early this season, as Pat Murphy indicated, and he could be key to how this Brewers season finishes. In a rotation plagued with injury and durability questions, Gasser has pitched in 53 games over the last two seasons. His walk rate has dropped noticeably and allowed him to work deeper into games, but he does have an issue that may arise in this sense. Gasser has a tendency toward blow-up innings, which has curtailed him at times, and a lot of that comes down to his fastball varietals. Both the fastball and cutter can become very hittable when he drops them down in the zone, as you can see below: The cutter is a better offering, but he can’t afford to let it come inside to right-handers or he’ll be toast. If he can avoid faltering too much and having those big innings and big pitch counts, there’s a chance Gasser may even lead the Brewers in innings pitched this season. Position Player WAR This Brewers offense has a greater array of weapons than at any point since 2019, with each of Gary Sánchez, Rhys Hoskins, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, William Contreras and even Jackson Chourio possessing impact bats. Of these, Contreras, Adames, Yelich and Chourio have the potential to be four- or five-win players, due to their offensive and defensive contributions. Yelich’s biggest issue is, simply, health. Murphy talked about the effort he’s put into strengthening his back in the offseason (though no comment was made on his choice of popcorn), and the eye test would suggest a bulkier Yelich this season. During his stretch from May to July last year before the back flared up, the Brewers star hit .314/.395/.531 with 13 home runs and 17 stolen bases, form that continued upon his return in late September and the playoffs. It may be dreaming at this point, but it’s the most consistent thunder Yelich has produced since 2019. Yelich can take a further step forward with how he handles breaking pitches. For someone with such a patient approach at the plate, the degree to which he chases non-competitive sliders and curveballs is astounding: Sliders are a real struggle for him, especially against lefthanders, but he has the eye to lay off them if he so chooses. The reason he swung so often is because of how much damage he did down and inside last season; finding that balance will be key to his 2024 performance. William Contreras has gone from strength to strength with the Brewers defensively, transforming into an elite defensive catcher over just a single offseason. His results with the bat were promising too, largely thanks to how he destroyed sliders inside the strike zone. His power came from sliders and fastballs on the inner half, but he did struggle to elevate the ball consistently against anything else, which meant he didn’t quite access his power as often as he would like. Contreras' challenge this season will be twofold: he’s spoken of his desire to improve defensively, and that will center around framing at the top of the strike zone, and his pop times. Offensively, his bat is a huge weapon and there’s real room for growth if he can zone in on curveballs and other offspeed pitches with more regularity. Willy Adames is another one to keep an eye on. Producing 4.6 fWAR in 2022, his defense is truly elite at shortstop. He’s almost guaranteed as a three-win player, but the charge in his bat will be what takes him to that higher tier. Adames is primarily a fastball hitter, performing well against four-seamers last season and crushing them when they weren’t elevated. He struggled mightily against breaking pitches, though, especially sliders. Whereas in 2022 he slugged .550 against them, in 2023 that dropped to .379 and was a large reason for his poorer overall performance. He has always swung and missed a lot at the pitch, but previously when they were hung up in the zone, they got mashed. Combine this with his improved walk rate last season, and it’s definitely possible for Adames to sneak into that five-WAR club this season. I’m slightly loath to include Jackson Chourio here, due to his rawness, and it’s not particularly likely this season, with things still to work on at the major-league level. That being said, despite some hiccups in the corner outfield spots in spring training, his range and arm provide a high floor from which to provide value, and his bat speed is truly electric. The final thing for him swing-wise is to avoid chasing pitches, which caused him to roll over weakly in 2023 more often than will be viable in MLB, but his raw speed still allows him to beat out the infield hit from time to time. He has massive potential, and the Brewers signed him to that $82-million contract because they and everyone else know just how valuable Chourio can be. How Much Needs to Click? This is the million-dollar question. All of the above won’t go right for the Brewers, but they are examples of what can go right this year. Realistically, the biggest need is in the rotation, and if the Ashby/Hall combo can hit the benchmark above, then this Brewers team takes a massive leap forward. Offensively, they have taken big strides to improve the middle of their batting order and should produce considerably more runs this season as a result. To be a top-eight offense in baseball, they’ll need one of Chourio, Adames, Yelich, and Contreras to take that step forward with the bat, while a step forward for two of them could see the Brewers become a top-five offense. Pair that with an above-average rotation, and you’ll have your 90 wins come October. View full article

Brilliant piece Spencer!

So framing is incredibly valuable because of how often it's used and how direct a link it provides to saving runs. The difference between a 2-1 and 1-2 count is massive in termof likely outcomes, never mind stealing a strike in a 3-2 count which directly creates an "out". It's probably the most valuable statistics a catcher. You're right about the umpires zones however, and maybe with ABS arriving soon it does become less valuable in some ways.