Jake McKibbin
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Let’s use a grading system as below to assess the top names in the Milwaukee Brewer's farm system: 5 – Not a long-term piece, and could be included in any trade 4 – Some long-term hopes, but potential to be included in any trades 3 – A good player, unlikely to be exchanged for a filler piece, but could be worth an impact player 2 – A high-value piece, likely to be included in a deal only for the top-tier talent (i.e., Goldshmidt, Ohtani, etc.) 1 - Off the market almost entirely 0 – Jackson Chourio Jackson Chourio The number two ranked prospect in all of baseball, and potentially number one given his recent escapades at AA Biloxi, where at just 19, he has had a strikeout rate of only 9% in July, and a whiff rate of around 18% over his last 100 swings, which is quite impressive (AA Average is 29.2% whiff rate). He’s hitting .403/.431/.694 for a 1.125 OPS in July, just dominating the competition since the turn of the month, and his improved swing decisions and ability to put the ball in play is a massive leap forward for him. At that level, his opposite-field power is enormous for his age, with quick hands, plus defense and speed on the basepaths. Chourio is untouchable as a prospect in this Brewers system. Grade – 0 Sal Frelick Frelick’s arrival in the big leagues has already impacted several games in ways Raimel Tapia could not, with his 3-3 and game-winning RBI versus the Braves, outstanding defense in right field with a 10% probability catch made, and then the home run against the Reds to tie the game on Monday. With superlative bat-to-ball skills, sneaky power (especially since shaking off his wrist injury), speed on the basepaths, and gritty nature, Frelick seems unlikely to be traded this season with the boost he’s already given the Brewers offense. That is unless they acquire a big impact bat, in which case the consistency he can provide could be a big selling point. He can play plus defense in center field, and his hit tool is up there with the best in the business. Grade – 1 Jeferson Quero Coming into this year, Quero was regarded as a defensive first catcher, and that’s still true, if only because of just how good he is behind the plate, with elite framing skills and a canon of an arm that caught 21 out of 59 attempted base runners so far this season, and is also incredibly young for AA baseball. He has also brought some big power out of his bat, hitting .292/.377/.494 for an OPS of .871, which is extremely high both due to his age and the use of tackier balls at AA in the first half of the season. Quero’s potential is to be the best catcher in the majors, and some would argue his defense is already at the level of being ready for the big leagues. If the bat continues to develop as he ages, this is the stuff of dreams for such a premium position. One aspect to consider, however, is the quality of the current catching corps, particularly the long-term control of William Contreras, who has been massively improved behind the plate, and in terms of getting the bat to the ball, lowering his K rate from 27.7% last season to 19.5% this year is in the 70th percentile for framing metrics. It is currently sporting the Brewers second best bat amongst qualifying players behind Christian Yelich. His only real flaw is his ground ball rate this season, leading to a lot of double plays. Still, he is significantly above average offensively and defensively as a catcher, meaning Quero might be slightly less essential. Grade – 2 Jacob Misiorowski A second-round JUCO pick by the Brewers in 2022, with elite stuff but poor command, the Brewers have stretched out Misiorowski slowly, pitching just one inning last year and a late, slow build-up to this season. Boy, has it paid off. Boasting a plus-plus fastball and slider, with an average curveball and developing a changeup, he wowed scouts at the futures game with his 100 mph fastball, generating an inordinate number of whiffs on his slider too. His command and control are still developing and are the one thing holding him back from being a true top prospect, with some experts, such as Keith Law, expecting him to end up as more of a high-leverage reliever because of it. The Brewers are hopeful his action is more repeatable and he can improve his command to such an extent that he can remain a starter and become a lights-out ace for them in the future. The command being a question mark may make him slightly more tradable. However, due to a lack of starting pitching prospects lighting up the minor leagues, pitching of this caliber is at a premium for this organization. Grade – 1 Tyler Black Boasting the most complete bat in the Brewers system, Tyler Black has added power to his bat, along with elite bat-to-ball skills and a total command of the strike zone. Hitting .290/.432/.546 for a .978 OPS is impressive enough on its own, but Black is also chasing the single-season steals record of 53 with the Biloxi Shuckers, currently on 45 for the season. He’s not doing this purely through speed; although he is fast, his base running instincts and game awareness are second to none; this is a good all-around ball player. His one drawback is defensively, with the Brewers trying to make a home for him at third base. With an arm that has looked stronger this season, he didn’t start well defensively but has progressed massively, no longer a liability in the hot corner and making both difficult and routine plays with regularity now. He may never excel in any position, but his hit tool can carry him. It may already be major league ready, given how well he performed against the sticky ball at AA (which gave pitchers similar stuff to major league pitchers). Grade – 2 What do you think, fanatics? Who on this list can you see being fodder for improving the current major league roster, and who would you trade them for? Join us later this week for a look into five other talented offerings in the farm system that could come into play by next week's deadline.
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Tue. 7/25 - Back to Work for All
Jake McKibbin replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Ereu also with a double and a walk, hopefully his bat can come around after a hot start and very cool patch post injury. After $1 million signing bonus, they'd expect more than an OPS in the .500's, but thats multiple XBH's in the last two days -
Tue. 7/25 - Back to Work for All
Jake McKibbin replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Two homers in two days for Yophery Rodriguez... that's really not common for 17 year olds in the DSL -
Absolutely, though I do think we've been absolutely blessed by Adames at short in just how much range he has, and the arm as well (which I don't think Turang's is quite as strong) That being said if he can handle it well enough, I'd be happy with that, especially from a defense first position, and some hopefully okay keystone players coming through ( would love EBJ to kick on)
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I think one issue may potentially be that he's potentially not a great Shortstop in the bigs, -2 OAA in an admittedly very small sample size of 29 plays at the position. He also has a BABIP of .251, which i'd expect to improve some, with his xBA at least .213 instead o.199, and a similar jump for his slugging percentage. he absolutely roped a ball yesterday with two outs and two men on that would've been a double five yards either side, a screaming line drive straight at Fraley. So I think he's getting there, but certainly with regular time should be re-assessed in a month's time His xSlg has jumped from .267 in June to .355 in July, so there's some progress there too in terms of the quality of contact he's making, but definitely needs to fill the swing and miss at the top of the zone
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Letson reported as a 94mph fastball in High School with a tight slider and good changeup, and also that he can between the legs dunk (important stuff) He struck out 62 in 34 innings last season Adamczewski seems to have been a really really good pick, a lot of nice stuff I'm hearing and seeing about his swing, it looks like a lot of effortless power. 6 ft, lefty bat hit .473 with nine home runs, 13 doubles and six triples as a senior
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Reds (Abbott) vs Brewers (Burnes): 7/25/23, 7:10pm
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Also if you can pick Abbott's fastball, you can hit him really hard, His offspeed stuff has been money, even though a lot of it's been in the strike zone, but that fastball has overpeformed and an xSlg of .540, you've got to do some damage to it. He's found a lot of the strike zone with his sweeper too, but an xBA of under .100 The curve and change have been plus too, so wait on fastball (He throws it almost every 2-0 count if that helps) -
I think Urias just needs a little tweaking, he's getting better and showing signs, hopefully be right as rain at some point later this season, or next year but minimal trade value now. Jimenez would be a huge get for the Brewers, and I wonder how much Value Garrett Mitchell has as well in a trade.. anyway I digress, White Sox are kind of doing a rebuild with some starting pitchers getting traded this off season and not lots coming through so would likely listen to the right offer, but will definitely want something more as I think they'd prefer to keep him
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He's looking better to my eye, although high fastballs are something he really seems to struggle with, but he's made adjustments all the way through his career and I think he will again. Seems to be squaring up pitches down in the zone more often recently which is a good sign, and his BB/K ratio is much better. I think he'll be a solid ish bat given playing time to adjust, but I don't think Triple A will be much more use to him
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Reds (Abbott) vs Brewers (Burnes): 7/25/23, 7:10pm
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
If anyone has reddit, the Reds game thread last night is worth a look in... lots of grumbling about both Benson, and just shock at the power of Colin Rea The Brewers have definitely looked better against lefties recently, hopefully some power can come to the fore again this game, they've been kind of lacking in the home run department, but could be another tight affair as Abbott has been lights out against anyone not Milwaukee, going eight innings of one hit ball last time out. Corbin has shown signs of Cy Burnes since adjusting his pitch usage in various situations, leaning heavier on that wicked curveball. Can he stay scoreless post all star break? Also the Reds bullpen is heavily taxed as of late, and they could really use a long Abbott start. Same for the Brewers, though they'd love to build a lead and hope for JC Mejia and Uribe to close it down Reds might be happy at that, they've gone 0-39 with four walks to 23 strikeouts against Payamps and Williams -
Welcome Dave! Jimenez has been on the injury list a lot in his career but he's a big big bat, and as such I can't see the Brewers getting him for this price unfortunately, given Hiura is up and down, Urias has really struggled this season, and Uribe is a potential quality reliever but I think Jimenez has team options through to 2026, making him a much longer shot. Would likely need someone like Jeferson Quero in there to even this up, or even Frelick! The Brewers FO would absolute jump at this offer mind
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Brent Suter, LHP, RockiesSuter has had an outstanding season for the Rockies, posting a 2.62 ERA in 33 appearances. The 33-year-old is owed about $1 million as he enters free agency, ranking in the top three percent of the league in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage and barrel percentage, repeatedly showing the ability to induce soft contact. Suter has actually been better against righties (.510 OPS) than lefties (.726 OPS), allowing one home run to each over 181 total batters faced.Potential fits: Blue Jays, Rays, Reds MLB's analysis of Suter @clancyphile
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Reds (Ashcraft) vs Brewers (Rea): 7/24/23, 7:10pm
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
Also opened my phone to watch the game this morning, and a news article "Elly de la Cruz hits it out of the stadium" and wondered if I should tune in... Turns out it's like an Angels thing, EDlC does something awesome, Reds lose to Brewers again The Reds came in with a fairly taxed bullpen, Diaz now has pitched 3/4 days, and a lot of others pitched two straight days now with high pitch counts over the last three days. They'll be glad to have Abbott on the mound today, who went 8 innings last time out, but if the Brewers can get to him as they have recently, or we get more Cy Burnes tonight... Hell Yeah! -
Reds (Ashcraft) vs Brewers (Rea): 7/24/23, 7:10pm
Jake McKibbin replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I have no idea how a guy with his swing his season managed to make such quality contact on a pitch that high, have to say that's a brilliant piece of hitting -
The whiff rate of 18% is very very promising... We might also not see any walks if he keeps hitting as well as he has, it seems anything in zone is getting crushed, no chance for a deep count
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Yeah even before this current hot patch he was striking out far less, but just making poor quality contact. The next stage seems to be knowing which pitches to take and which ones he's doing damage on to increase the regularity of AB's ending in quality contact. EDlC did this in a month, I don't think it'll take too long to refine his approach and his contact ability is way past Elly's. He's actually increased his floor massively with this, given that oppo power, can you imagine only striking out 15-16% of the time? Good lord
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You want your 6/7 years of chourio I think to be when he's ready, and he's shown enough of a weakness with swinging outside the zone on pitches and making weak contact with the tacky balls (Which are similar to MLB levels of pitching movement) that he's not ready yet to contribute, but he's definitely definitely getting there
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It's unlikely at this point that Chourio won't be playing sometime next year, he's clearly making big strides and even going slowly probably means July/August next year barring injury. I can't see Taylor being retained just to keep Chourio as a prospect for the sake of it
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Mon. 7/24 - Rookie Level Action Early and Late
Jake McKibbin replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Yophery Rodriguez may be breaking his funk... wonder if they were tweaking his mechanics a little, but anyway just hit his 4th home run of the season What Rodriguez has provided is like a 20 year old play with kids in the DSL -
Absolutely I do think there's the potential as well, say if Rowdy comes back with 6-7 weeks left, if he can produce like he did at the start of the season, where he hit 12 homers in a month and a half. It depends whether this forearm injury was a false flag or a real thing he's been struggling with, but I can't imagine he's ever gone two months without a home run without a justifiable reason before
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I think Turang is maybe starting to get better... he's got such a smooth swing, and there have been signs of good contact coming through, with a few ripped foul balls etc, as well as some unfortunate liners straight at people. The key difference is his patience at the plate though, with 11 walks to 11 strikeouts since coming back up to the majors. The only way he'll really get a grip though is by facing major league pitchers, and he's showing signs. It's something to be revisited in a month or two, and he shouldn't start against any lefty whatsoever, but I think it's coming just a little
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There are a lot of needs for the Milwaukee Brewers offensively, but what should be an offensive first position has struggled, with both first base and the designated hitter slots providing the worst production in MLB by WRC+. However, an issue is that the only reliable fills-in are big names like Paul Goldschmidt, and then there is a big drop off to less effective bats like Carlos Santana, Andrew Vaughn, or even (I hope not) Bobby Dalbec. Image courtesy of Brewer Fanatic One thing we have seen this year is the way in which young, prospect-filled teams have taken the bull by the horns and run with it in the form of the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and even the Reds. There’s a definite bounce after Sal Frelick’s promotion, and could there be more of this on the way? First base expects an average production of 114 WRC+ going by the league-wide production value, so it should be the home of a big bat. Recently, the Brewers have been experimenting with Owen Miller, who, despite the eye test, has been a very solid defensive glove due to his added range and seems to be getting better each day. However, his production dropped further in July, hitting .194 with a 26% strikeout rate and just three extra-base hits. It’s clear that the Brewers need more from this spot, but if there aren’t options here, where else could they escape Jesse Winker’s shadow? Victor Caratini Caratini showed last year he has a relatively decent offensive profile until overplaying at the catcher spot caused his stats at the plate to tumble after June, struggling in the second half of the season (understandably so) due to Omar Narvaez’s injury. Over the last month, he has a .788 OPS, looked both more mobile than Tellez and better at picking balls than Owen Miller when he filled in, and is a switch hitter, something Counsell loves. So far this season, Caratini has a .746 OPS against right-handers, albeit struggling a lot more against lefties, and could be part of a platoon with Owen Miller, who's been one of the better hitters against left-handers and has at least shown glimpses of the quality contact hitter he was in May over the last couple of weeks. In all likelihood, this solution is being saved for the next few weeks until the trade deadline passes or until Tellez returns, hoping he finds his power-hitting form for a couple of months. Keston Hiura Hiura currently has a 12-game on-base streak going down in AAA Nashville. Still, he hasn’t looked the same player pre-injury yet, with a noticeable lack of the quality contact and exit velocities he was putting up earlier in the season and much of the streak being fueled by a propensity to be hit by pitches. As much as I’m a fan of Hiura’s bat, particularly at DH, it feels unfair to bring him up when he’s not ready. His injury earlier in the season came at the most unfortunate time, given his regular dropping of his strikeout rate and home runs almost every other night at AAA. Hiura, at his best, has high slugging numbers. Although he’s demonstrated just a 23% strikeout rate in July, with a .449 OBP, he’s still just slightly off, producing a .864 OPS in that time which sounds decent but is the minimum you'd expect from a MLB hitter in Triple-A this year. He's not far off, and it could be something similar to Frelick, where it just clicks, and in a week, he's up with the the big boys again. Another thing, although a small sample size, is he’s hitting left-handers better than right-handers so far this season with a 1.034 OPS against southpaws. His total elimination of a leg kick seems to have addressed his swing and miss at the top of the strike zone. Should the Brewers give him a shot? Even one hot month of Keston Hiura could make a huge difference to the Brewers, who are struggling for power numbers of late. Abraham Toro Toro has been filling in at first base as of late, and after a rough debut, he’s shown a lot of range, a nice glove over there, and his bat has been HOT. After another double on Sunday night, he’s hitting .385/.446/.708 in July for the Nashville Sounds with three home runs and a double. He’s absolutely raked in the minors before, notably before his call-up with Astros in 2019, as he destroyed AA and AAA before forcing a promotion and slumping. He’s not a power bat by any means, but he can clear the fence and provides good regular contact quality, with an 18% strikeout rate in his last month. Incredibly unfortunate BABIPs have fueled his major league efforts to date, and it could be that he’s first in line for a chance given how often he’s been playing at first base compared to Keston Hiura, who’s more often seen manning left field. As mentioned before, Counsell loves platoon matchups and therefore switch hitters. Toro's versatility to fill in almost anywhere in the infield would give him an edge over some of his rivals. Unless Luis Urias kicks off, he may also be in line should there be more problems at the hot corner. Could Toro provide something above and beyond what the Brewers are currently getting, even if it’s just until Rowdy returns? Tyler Black Black has been the best bat in the Brewers system across the first half of the season, even with the sticky balls used in AA early in the season. With a fantastic eye at the plate, solid bat-to-ball skills, and the injection of more power in his game, the question is, could he play against major league stuff and produce similar results? On top of this, Black currently has 45 stolen bases this season, an incredible number, and his lowest on-base percentage for a month was .394 in May. His control of the strike zone would seem very ready for the majors, and on top of this, he’s slugging even more in the last two months, with seven home runs, five triples, and ten doubles since the start of June. He could be a huge spark, but are the Brewers willing to take the risk? The Brewers seem intent on Black developing as a third baseman, and he has shown dramatic progress in this area over the season, making both routine and more difficult plays now, whereas he was a total liability earlier in the season. They could cut this short and simply DH him (given he’s never played first base), but it could cut short his development and potential at the hot corner. It’s also important to note that two very high-profile prospects were brought up to start the year from Double-A in Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker, who struggled massively initially (Walker has performed better since his demotion). The Brewers can’t afford to mess with Black this way or give him a lot of time to work things out at this level. Do any of these options appeal to the Brewer Fanatics? What do you think the Brewers' deadline approach will be? View full article
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No Trades: Brewers Should Play The Options They Have in Nashville
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
One thing we have seen this year is the way in which young, prospect-filled teams have taken the bull by the horns and run with it in the form of the Diamondbacks, Orioles, and even the Reds. There’s a definite bounce after Sal Frelick’s promotion, and could there be more of this on the way? First base expects an average production of 114 WRC+ going by the league-wide production value, so it should be the home of a big bat. Recently, the Brewers have been experimenting with Owen Miller, who, despite the eye test, has been a very solid defensive glove due to his added range and seems to be getting better each day. However, his production dropped further in July, hitting .194 with a 26% strikeout rate and just three extra-base hits. It’s clear that the Brewers need more from this spot, but if there aren’t options here, where else could they escape Jesse Winker’s shadow? Victor Caratini Caratini showed last year he has a relatively decent offensive profile until overplaying at the catcher spot caused his stats at the plate to tumble after June, struggling in the second half of the season (understandably so) due to Omar Narvaez’s injury. Over the last month, he has a .788 OPS, looked both more mobile than Tellez and better at picking balls than Owen Miller when he filled in, and is a switch hitter, something Counsell loves. So far this season, Caratini has a .746 OPS against right-handers, albeit struggling a lot more against lefties, and could be part of a platoon with Owen Miller, who's been one of the better hitters against left-handers and has at least shown glimpses of the quality contact hitter he was in May over the last couple of weeks. In all likelihood, this solution is being saved for the next few weeks until the trade deadline passes or until Tellez returns, hoping he finds his power-hitting form for a couple of months. Keston Hiura Hiura currently has a 12-game on-base streak going down in AAA Nashville. Still, he hasn’t looked the same player pre-injury yet, with a noticeable lack of the quality contact and exit velocities he was putting up earlier in the season and much of the streak being fueled by a propensity to be hit by pitches. As much as I’m a fan of Hiura’s bat, particularly at DH, it feels unfair to bring him up when he’s not ready. His injury earlier in the season came at the most unfortunate time, given his regular dropping of his strikeout rate and home runs almost every other night at AAA. Hiura, at his best, has high slugging numbers. Although he’s demonstrated just a 23% strikeout rate in July, with a .449 OBP, he’s still just slightly off, producing a .864 OPS in that time which sounds decent but is the minimum you'd expect from a MLB hitter in Triple-A this year. He's not far off, and it could be something similar to Frelick, where it just clicks, and in a week, he's up with the the big boys again. Another thing, although a small sample size, is he’s hitting left-handers better than right-handers so far this season with a 1.034 OPS against southpaws. His total elimination of a leg kick seems to have addressed his swing and miss at the top of the strike zone. Should the Brewers give him a shot? Even one hot month of Keston Hiura could make a huge difference to the Brewers, who are struggling for power numbers of late. Abraham Toro Toro has been filling in at first base as of late, and after a rough debut, he’s shown a lot of range, a nice glove over there, and his bat has been HOT. After another double on Sunday night, he’s hitting .385/.446/.708 in July for the Nashville Sounds with three home runs and a double. He’s absolutely raked in the minors before, notably before his call-up with Astros in 2019, as he destroyed AA and AAA before forcing a promotion and slumping. He’s not a power bat by any means, but he can clear the fence and provides good regular contact quality, with an 18% strikeout rate in his last month. Incredibly unfortunate BABIPs have fueled his major league efforts to date, and it could be that he’s first in line for a chance given how often he’s been playing at first base compared to Keston Hiura, who’s more often seen manning left field. As mentioned before, Counsell loves platoon matchups and therefore switch hitters. Toro's versatility to fill in almost anywhere in the infield would give him an edge over some of his rivals. Unless Luis Urias kicks off, he may also be in line should there be more problems at the hot corner. Could Toro provide something above and beyond what the Brewers are currently getting, even if it’s just until Rowdy returns? Tyler Black Black has been the best bat in the Brewers system across the first half of the season, even with the sticky balls used in AA early in the season. With a fantastic eye at the plate, solid bat-to-ball skills, and the injection of more power in his game, the question is, could he play against major league stuff and produce similar results? On top of this, Black currently has 45 stolen bases this season, an incredible number, and his lowest on-base percentage for a month was .394 in May. His control of the strike zone would seem very ready for the majors, and on top of this, he’s slugging even more in the last two months, with seven home runs, five triples, and ten doubles since the start of June. He could be a huge spark, but are the Brewers willing to take the risk? The Brewers seem intent on Black developing as a third baseman, and he has shown dramatic progress in this area over the season, making both routine and more difficult plays now, whereas he was a total liability earlier in the season. They could cut this short and simply DH him (given he’s never played first base), but it could cut short his development and potential at the hot corner. It’s also important to note that two very high-profile prospects were brought up to start the year from Double-A in Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker, who struggled massively initially (Walker has performed better since his demotion). The Brewers can’t afford to mess with Black this way or give him a lot of time to work things out at this level. Do any of these options appeal to the Brewer Fanatics? What do you think the Brewers' deadline approach will be?- 38 comments
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