Jason Wang

We’re rounding third in our retrospective on the most popular Brewer Fanatic content of the year. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images #10: Hear Me Out: The Brewers Should Sign Rowdy Tellez for the Last Game of the Season Davy Andrews September 27th In a caretaker-exclusive piece, Davy Andrews made a compelling argument to bring back Rowdy Tellez after he was unceremoniously designated for assignment by the Pirates. This wasn’t your usual sabermetric analysis driven by nerdy numbers like xwOBA and wRAA. If it had been, it would’ve made Davy’s job a little harder as Tellez had a tough 2024 and was below replacement level. Instead, it took a more human approach and talked about Tellez coming up just four plate appearances short of cashing in on a $200,000 bonus outlined in his contract. Despite Pittsburgh denying that his early release was to save them a few dollars, it all seemed a little too fishy for that to be true. Could Tellez have saved the Brewers from yet another first-round postseason exit? You’ll have to read to find out. #9: The Brewers' Starting Rotation, in the Thoughts and Words of Pat Murphy Matthew Trueblood March 4th Ah yes, early March. Before any of the freak injuries and 60-day IL stints, there was a lot of hope placed on a Brewers’ rotation that had neither Corbin Burnes nor Brandon Woodruff for the first time in years. Wade Miley was already teetering on injury by this point but other players like Joe Ross, DL Hall, Jakob Junis, and Robert Gasser were bursting with potential. Pretty much every name listed in the article eventually saw some meaningful action in the big leagues even if many of their seasons were cut short by health issues. If you want a glimpse into how the complex mind of a baseball veteran with 30 years of coaching under his belt thinks about setting up his pitching staff, this is the article for you. #8: Devin Williams May Have Thrown His Last Pitch For The Milwaukee Brewers Jake McKibbin October 7th Despite being on easy street for the whole season, winning the division, and securing their spot in the playoffs, the Brewers once again fell short when it mattered most. In one of the biggest moments of his career thus far, Devin Williams folded under the pressure, conceding four earned runs and blowing an elimination game against the Mets. It would end up being the last pitch he’d throw for the team before being traded to the Yankees this offseason. It was an unfortunate way to conclude his time in Milwaukee but like that one guy who wrote Cat in the Hat once said: don’t cry because it’s over, smile because it happened. #7: A New Opportunity Has Arisen for the Brewers to Get Better, and They Might Take It Matthew Trueblood March 12th Just as spring training was starting to kick off, there was a whirlwind of activity in San Francisco. The Giants had just signed Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman, leading to the release of J.D. Davis just before the team agreed to his new $6.9 million salary imposed in arbitration. Underhanded business tactics aside, Davis was a potential signing for the Brewers to address their third base position, which was still in flux at the time. Matt went on to suggest a potential move that would've sent Willy Adames to the Dodgers in exchange for a valuable pitching prospect, creating a sort of double move that would have been oh-so-characteristic of Milwaukee’s crafty front office. #6: What Do the Differences in Corbin Burnes With Orioles Tell Us About the Brewers? Matthew Trueblood June 7th After Mr. Burnes was sent packing to a city with slightly better seafood, his diet wasn’t the only thing that began to change. With a new team comes a new coaching staff and the difference in Corbin’s pitching since landing in Baltimore showed just how many different ways there are to utilize an arm as talented as his. He was ultimately effective but saw a decrease in his strikeout rate in exchange for more soft contact. To no one's surprise, Burnes had an outstanding year with the Orioles. He brought back a bounty of excellent prospects in return and in many ways, both teams involved got exactly what they were looking for, a rare win-win scenario in the world of baseball trades. View full article

We continue the countdown to the new year by counting down Brewer Fanatic’s own most popular content from 2024. Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images #15: Did You See the Ken Rosenthal Report About a Willy Adames Trade? Good. Now: Forget It. Matthew Trueblood June 13th Ken Rosenthal has been around baseball for a long time. In addition to being a field reporter, he’s also known for his fashionable bow ties and staggering stature. Despite years of involvement with the sport, even he is susceptible to the occasional suspect opinion. Around the 2024 trade deadline, he suggested that the Brewers trade Willy Adames with somewhat shaky logic, essentially suggesting that Milwaukee’s rotation wouldn’t be able to make it through the season without swapping him for a healthy starter. The Brewers actually made out okay, winning the NL Central once again by a margin of ten games and securing their sixth playoff berth in the past seven years. Rosenthal was absolutely correct in predicting that Adames would walk in free agency, but good ol’ Matt Trueblood had some good counterpoints to his idea that he would be moved any sooner than he had to. #14: 5 Last-Second Deals the Brewers Can Make Before Spring Training Ryan Pollak January 31st While the state of Wisconsin was still in the process of defrosting, Ryan Pollak just couldn’t wait for the stove to heat up and spent some time considering a handful of moves that could bolster the roster before the team even touched down in Arizona. There were quite a few questions surrounding third base at the beginning of the season as well as your usual pitching uncertainty and Pollak took it upon himself to do some personal scouting for the Brewers at their preferred price: free.99. While none of these deals ultimately came to fruition, it's interesting to look back on these players and think what could have happened if any of them actually had gone through. #13: Are Tyler Black and Joey Wiemer Pushing For Major-League Promotions? Jake McKibbin April 10th After just two weeks of major league baseball, Jake McKibbin was already looking at the minor leagues to assess who was on the cusp of making it to the next level. While Joey Wiemer had already used up all of his rookie eligibility, Tyler Black was yet to receive his first shot at the show and both players started the season in Triple-A Nashville. Black would end up making his debut at the end of April to unimpressive results but will likely get another chance in 2025 if he makes the necessary adjustments to handle big league pitching. Wiemer would return to Milwaukee around the same time as Black but would later be traded to the Reds in the deal that brought Frankie Montas to the Brewers. #12: The Curious Case of Brice Turang Kyle Ginsbach February 27th The only thing I love more than a Sunday Fun-Day Bundle at American Family Field is Brice Turang. The bundle is a close second (getting four tickets, hot dogs, sodas, and parking for $62 is a steal in this economy) but he has been on my radar since debuting in 2023, mostly because I loved saying “it’s Turang time.” Of course, before the season started, all fans knew about him was that his offense was on the same level as Tim Anderson (?) and he was by no means guaranteed to keep his spot on the big league roster. Kyle Ginsbach took a closer peek at exactly what he was struggling with and discussed what he needed to do to get back on track. Turang must have listened since he went to have a breakout year in 2024, collecting 4.7 rWAR and winning a Platinum Glove for his stellar defensive efforts. #11: Brewers Have a Positional Dilemma for Two Young Stars in the Outfield Matthew Trueblood January 30th The Brewers are blessed with two things: having the best logo in baseball and having incredible depth in the outfield. Before we got a full taste of exactly what phenom prospect Jackson Chourio would be able to accomplish at the highest level, Matthew Trueblood pondered the question of how best to utilize him and Sal Frelick alongside the team’s more veteran players. It’s a question that still remains slightly open as Milwaukee still has all of their top outfield talent from last year but we now have more information on what each player can do. Will that change how they’re set up in the future? We’ll just have to wait and see. View full article

i too remember being in second grade

2022 was the first year I started watching baseball and I remember seeing a clip of Nestor Cortes doing his little Johnny Cueto-esque delivery and I was like "wow this guy must be really good." Then I found out he only threw in the low-90s and I was like "wow this guy must be really bad." Then I found out he had a 2.44 ERA and had 22 RV on his 4S (no idea what that meant back then but figured it was good) and got super confused. I'm really excited to see what the Brewers do with Cortes to maximize the effectiveness of his four-seam/cutter. It won't be the same as Burnes as you mentioned above since he just doesn't have the juice but they'll definitely do something.

You’ve probably seen the red and blue numbers on Baseball Savant before, but do you know what they entail? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Baseball Savant is full of funny colors and statistics, and the website gets a little more crowded every year as more and more niche information becomes publicly accessible. Some information is self-explanatory, while other information is anything but. For example, when we look at Freddy Peralta’s page, we see this: On the left, you see his high-level numbers from the past few seasons, a good overview of his recent performance. These figures can easily be found on other sites like Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, so it’s not typically what Savant is used for, but it still provides a necessary baseline for analyzing the rest of his profile. On the right is a relatively new addition that illustrates the movement and usage for every weapon in his arsenal, along with his arm angle. Interpreting it can take a little getting used to, but once you’re familiar with general ranges for pitch movement, you can more easily spot which fastballs have more ride, which sliders are more like sweepers, and so on and so forth. In the middle are the sliders that all armchair GMs (myself included) know and love. They contain percentile numbers for key qualities like average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and ground-ball rate. This gives users a normalized view of how a particular metric fits in with the rest of the league. While the bottom section covers more granular details, the top section labeled Value contains four sliders, each measuring something called “run value.” It’s pretty easy to understand that more run value is “better,” but how is that even calculated—and is it really that simple? The website’s own definition of the metric does little to clear up the uncertainty, but it also links to an old blog post by Tom Tango, a pseudonym for a sabermetrician whose real name isn’t publicly known despite him having an outsized impact on the analytics community. In this post, he explains that run value is essentially the cumulative sum of every pitch’s value from the run expectancy matrix. These values from the run expectancy matrix can be interpreted as the average number of runs expected to score from a given base-out state. For hitters, it looks something like this (the matrix for pitchers is the same but inverted): Based on these broad-strokes descriptions, we have evidence to support our original conclusion that more run value is “better”—akin to other counting stats, like strikeouts. However, keen-eyed Savant users will notice some discrepancy between the run value of a specific pitch and its other numbers. Despite Peralta's slider having significantly less run value than his fastball, it has a lower batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA while having better whiff and strikeout rates. How can both stories be true? It’s important to remember that while many numbers may seem related, they’re calculated very differently. A simple example of this is batting average and on-base percentage. One might assume both stats to have the same denominator, but they don’t, since there’s a slight difference between at-bats and plate appearances. In this case, batting average and slugging percentage, strikeout rate and wOBA only consider the plate appearances that end on that pitch. We want to know the value of each individual pitch, even if it isn’t the last one thrown in a given plate appearance, which is where run value comes in. What we do know is that when his sliders are good, they’re really good, often resulting in swings and misses, punchouts, or soft contact, but what about the other kind? The only way for Peralta’s slider to impact his run value negatively without also dragging down the other numbers listed above would be throwing a lot of balls. If you look at the run expectancy matrix again, you can see that getting into hitter-friendly counts like 2-0 and 3-0 increases the probability that a run will score that inning and thus adversely affects the metric for the pitcher. This makes sense, as getting behind in counts gives pitchers less wiggle room and results in more walks and hittable pitches. Consider this hypothetical possibility. Against the first batter of the season, Freddy Peralta throws three consecutive sliders, each resulting in a ball. Now down 3-0, he throws yet another slider that ends up as a groundout. Now let’s assume he repeats this several more times with a few walks mixed in, and you can see how he could have a perfect batting average of .000, while tanking the run value on his slider. Along with the other data, run value gives us a more complete understanding of a given pitch’s true effectiveness. This real-life example of Freddy Peralta’s slider is fairly accurate. It’s great when commanded well, but too often, it ends up as a waste pitch, reducing its overall contributions to his game. Part of this is the result of how much he toys with the shape of the pitch, and part of it is the simple difficulty of being a big-league pitcher. Either way, it’s a clear roadblock to him reaching the peak of his potential. With our new knowledge, we can attempt to ascertain what’s going on with the rest of his arsenal, as well. His fastball sometimes gets hit hard and isn’t missing as many bats as he may like, but it’s still getting him more strikes than anything else in the repertoire. His changeup gives him the most bang for his buck, as it combines the best qualities of both his fastball and his slider: infrequent waste pitches and strong results on balls in play. His usage ticked up a bit from 2023 to 2024, and we may see it even more frequently next year. Every statistic in baseball was created to answer some specific question. Unfortunately, the path to answer one question often opens up the door to two more, so never over-index on just one fact or figure. Instead, acknowledge that every number is incomplete and has its own strengths and weaknesses. Run value may seem like a way to quickly judge the effectiveness of a pitch, but it’s far more layered than that. It’s a useful tool on the ol’ sabermetric belt, but it shouldn’t be the only one you bring to work. View full article

I didn't name Peralta or Myers specifically because they kinda fell under the "keep doing what you're doing camp" in my eyes. Both solid arms that will do a lot of the heavy lifting/pitching next year!

5'8 is colossal that's gotta be way above average height.

It may be easy to look over some of the smaller players in team history, but that doesn’t diminish their unique qualities. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images As someone who was once wrongfully accused of lying about being 5’6" when I should've said I was 5’5 ½", I know the pains of being on the shorter end of things. It’s hard to reach all of the really good candy on the top shelf at Piggly Wiggly, you can’t ride all of the rides at Tom Foolery's Adventure Park, and most importantly, it’s difficult to throw an effective 12-6 curveball given your low release point. However, unlike many sports like basketball and equestrian show jumping, where height is a key factor, baseball players can still be successful despite a more diminutive stature. This holiday season, I wanted to look back at three of the shortest players ever to don a Milwaukee Brewers uniform and talk about their big-league careers with small frames. LHP Danny Herrera (5’6", 165 pounds) Danny Herrera was a crafty lefty reliever whose entire baseball career screams an unlikely story. He was picked in the 45th round of the 2006 draft by the Texas Rangers and was the 1,345th selection overall. Being chosen that late is usually so irrelevant that MLB has cut the number of rounds to just 20 in recent years, so he started his professional career with a major uphill battle. If he had been born twenty years later, we would not have gotten the chance to see what Herrera brought to the table. After two years of great pitching in the Texas system, he made it to Double-A Frisco before being traded to the Reds as part of the deal that brought Josh Hamilton to Texas in 2008. He kept up the great work in Cincinnati’s farm system, posting a 2.78 ERA over 55 innings in Triple-A Louisville and was even called up, pitching in seven major league games to mixed results. Riding the momentum of his rapid ascension through the ranks, Herrera made the Reds Opening Day roster in 2009 and was a solid piece of their bullpen, posting a 3.06 ERA over 61 ⅔ innings. He was helped considerably by his defense, given his 3.99 FIP and WHIP of 1.41, but he made it work. In 2010 he had some issues, splitting time between the majors and Triple-A Louisville. However, he lowered his FIP to 3.77 despite his WHIP swelling to 1.61 and striking out just 5.5 hitters per nine innings. Before the 2011 season, Cincinnati placed him on waivers, and his storied Brewers career began. It lasted just two games and 1 ⅔ innings, but you know what they say, quality over quantity. Honestly, there wasn’t much quality either since he conceded four earned runs and was quickly optioned to Triple-A Nashville. However, he had an outstanding minor league season, pitching to a 1.48 ERA over 42 ⅔ innings. In September 2011, he was the player to be named later in the trade for Francisco Rodríguez and was packaged off to the Mets. Despite an admirable finish to the season, Herrera would never return to the big leagues after 2011, spending most of 2012 injured in Triple-A Buffalo and then released by the Mets in 2013. He would stick around for a few years to play in Mexico and independent baseball but ultimately hung up the cleats after 2016. Most relievers typically rely on a two-pitch arsenal that consists of a blazing fastball and a wicked secondary pitch. Because Herrera’s heater sat in the mid-80s, he needed a six-pitch arsenal just to get by. In addition to his four-seam fastball, he was also known to throw a sinker, cutter, curveball, changeup, and, most notably, a screwball with a velocity in the high 60s. Where Is He Now? After dicing up the league, he decided to turn to art and now spends his time producing incredible baseball-themed illustrations. MLB writer Michael Clair wrote a great piece on his current work in 2022. If you’re interested in taking a closer look at Herrera’s original work, check out his site. LHP Clayton Andrews (5’6", 160 pounds) After Babe Ruth and before Shohei Ohtani, there was Clayton Andrews. He became a two-way player after transferring from Cabrillo College to California State University, Long Beach. In 2018, he posted a 1.99 ERA over 99 ⅔ innings and a .759 OPS over 257 plate appearances. While he didn’t hit any home runs, he did accumulate six doubles and five triples, a clear sign of the hustle gene. He was initially drafted by the Dodgers in the 40th round of the 2017 draft but decided to wait another year, eventually being selected by the Brewers in the 17th round of the 2018 draft as the 515th overall pick. Like Herrera, he also found great success in the minor leagues, advancing to Triple-A Nashville in 2021, just his third year of professional baseball. He spent a few years recovering from Tommy John surgery, but by 2023, he was back at full strength, posting a 2.53 ERA over 57 innings in Triple-A Nashville. Unlike Herrera, Andrews throws absolute gas, at least for a pitcher of his size. Andrews sat in the mid-90s with his fastball and could occasionally touch 96 mph on a good day. Tread Athletics, a facility specializing in analytics-based pitching and hitting development, made a video in 2023 about exactly how Andrews reached this velocity. If you're interested, give it a watch. While Herrera struggled to strike out, Andrews averaged 12.2 K/9 over his six seasons in the minors. Unfortunately, his success never translated to the big leagues. In 2023, he appeared in four games with the Brewers and had disastrous results, conceding 11 hits and 10 earned runs in just 3 ⅓ innings. He still managed four strikeouts but gave up three home runs, which was not exactly a recipe for success. Before the 2024 season, he was traded to the Yankees, where he started to see some real regression. With the lower quality of pitching development in his new city, he had similar results in his lone major league appearance with the major league team but also had a 5.84 ERA over 24 ⅔ innings in Triple-A Scranton. After being designated for assignment, clearing waivers, and electing free agency, he signed a minor-league deal with the Giants. He was shelled in two appearances in rookie ball, spelling a likely end to his career in MLB. Where Is He Now? He spent the last few weeks of this past season pitching in Mexico and is now a free agent. Whether he’ll return to professional baseball or call it quits is unclear, but it will be an uphill battle for him. Given the increased importance placed on wicked velocity and movement, it’s grown increasingly difficult for pitchers who don’t have both qualities to make it in today’s game. Personally, I hope to see him again and dream of the day he records his first save, but that seems like more of a distant possibility with each passing day. 2B Kolten Wong (5'7", 185 pounds) Born and raised in Hawaii, he attended Kamehameha Schools, known for its strong athletics program and commitment to preserving the indigenous culture of Hawaii. He was a star in high school, batting .600 and getting chosen by the Twins in the 16th round of the 2008 draft, but he decided to attend the University of Hawaii instead. It ended up being the right choice since he was ultimately drafted in the first round by the Cardinals in 2011, being taken 22nd overall and becoming the organization’s #4-ranked prospect. After breezing through the minor leagues, he was a late call-up in 2013 and even made the postseason roster, appearing in the NLDS, NLCS, and even the World Series. His most famous moment in Cardinals history is probably coming in as a pinch runner in the ninth inning of Game 4 and being picked off by Koji Uehara to make the last out. Despite this early setback, he had a great career in St. Louis, placing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, earning two Gold Gloves, and getting a few MVP votes in 2019, the best year of his career. Despite his success, his $12.5 million team option was declined in 2021, making him a free agent and allowing him to sign a two-year, $18 million deal with Milwaukee that included a club option in 2023. He kept up the strong momentum as a Brewer, averaging a 113 OPS+ and accumulating 6.4 rWAR from 2021-2022. He also hit 56 doubles, six triples, and 29 home runs. Three of those home runs came in a single game against the Reds in September 2022. Given his success with the team, his $10 million club option was exercised in 2023, but instead of retaining him, Milwaukee used their team control to trade him to Seattle in exchange for Abraham Toro and Jesse Winker. This was a terrible trade for all parties involved, as all three players performed way below expectations. Wong’s .468 OPS quickly led to him being benched, and he was designated for assignment in August before being released. He finished the year as a pinch-hitter for the Dodgers. At his best, Wong was a great hitter who compensated for a lack of pop with great bat-to-ball skills and a disciplined approach. His strikeout rate over his entire major-league career was just 16.0%, an excellent mark, especially in the modern game. He lacked the ability to hit home runs consistently but was good for 20+ doubles per season and would’ve likely benefited from the rule changes that made base stealing more accessible. Where Is He Now? In 2024, he signed minor-league deals with the Orioles and Diamondbacks, spending some time in Triple-A Reno before being released in late May. After the severity of his regression in 2023, it seems that he has struggled to return to the level of ball he played with the Brewers. At 34 years old and with just over 10 years of service time, Kolten Wong could retire today and still have a proud career. In addition to 22.0 rWAR, he ranks third all-time in hits, doubles, and runs scored among Hawaii natives behind Kurt Suzuki and Shane Victorino. We may have seen the last of Wong on the big league diamond, but his legacy as a short king and proud representative of his Hawaiian heritage will live on forever. View full article

yeah but does garrett mitchell have a case to monitor the humidity levels of his bats

With their most prized trade asset now spent, what other parts of Milwaukee’s roster still need help going into 2025? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images It has been a pretty busy offseason around the league. More than $2 billion in free-agent contracts have been signed, and the trade front has seen more than a few impact players change hands. The Brewers got involved themselves, shipping Devin Williams to the Yankees in exchange for Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin. The Airbender was bound for a new home in his walk year, and Milwaukee’s anticipated offseason additions depended heavily on his return package. So, now that he’s gone, what does the team still need—and will it be enough to maintain their dominance over the division? Infield Caleb Durbin was a 14th-round draft pick by team who plays at the highway interchange just north of Atlanta in 2021, and he's been on the minor-league grind ever since. He started hitting his stride over the past two years, steadily climbing the ranks. Most recently, he posted an .867 OPS over 375 plate appearances in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and torched the Arizona Fall League, posting a .976 OPS and stealing 29 bases there. A certified short king, he has adapted his playing style to compensate for a lack of power and has excellent fielding flexibility, making him a great fit for an already versatile Brewers squad. Heading into the offseason, there were questions over who would play which position after the departure of Willy Adames. Now that Durbin is on board, it seems Pat Murphy will have plenty of options for almost every position in the infield. One area that could still use some improvement is first base. While the Rhys Hoskins signing was exciting at the time of its announcement, a full season of his performance left much to be desired, especially given his $12 million salary. He had -0.2 rWAR, slashing .214/.303/.419 for an OPS+ of 98. After officially exercising his $18-million player option for 2025, there were hopes that he could get traded, but with his stock at an all-time low, it was likely difficult to find a willing buyer at his price point. Even if a suitable replacement was found, the team would still be on the hook for most of his money, so they’ll have to wait for 2026 to decline their part of the mutual option and look for a more meaningful bat, should his numbers remain the same. Of course, they could move Hoskins to DH permanently and pick up a more well-rounded first baseman, but given the extra money or prospect equity they’d have to surrender in a free agent or trade situation, the team will probably just hang in there with Hoskins. Moves throughout the league have foreclosed even the options that did seem to loom for them, as the Guardians, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Astros, and Nationals all landed new first basemen over the last handful of days. Outfield Arguably the area in which they have the most depth, Milwaukee’s outfield is jam-packed with young talent. Injury concerns for Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell are well-founded, but based on what we saw from them last year, they’re outstanding when healthy. When you throw in Blake Perkins, Sal Frelick, and the phenomenal Jackson Chourio, you get more than enough pieces for this part of the roster to be successful. If anything, it seems that the surplus in the outfield could drive another trade later in the offseason. Catcher/DH Similar to the outfield, the Brewers are set when it comes to backstops and designated hitters. There’s plenty of crossover between who’s on the depth chart for both roles, with William Contreras and Eric Haase. The organization did also utilize Gary Sánchez on occasion in 2024, but getting a third-string catcher probably isn’t a priority for the front office right now. Keeping DH playing time available for Yelich and Contreras is more important than whatever production they could find on the market from a budget-friendly bat. Rotation There’s a lot to like about the Brewers' starters—at least in theory. Given the tragic injury luck of the past few years, one can never be too sure about betting the house on the team’s rotation to stay healthy. With arms like Brandon Woodruff and Robert Gasser still on unclear timelines to return, the team will have to hope the combination of Nestor Cortes and full seasons from DL Hall and Aaron Civale will be enough to hold down the fort. There’s actually a lot to like about Cortes and his potential fit on the team. He’s a crafty lefty who does some unorthodox things, something that could fit well within a development program that has made the most out of arms with neither spectacular velocity nor stuff. His fly ball rate has consistently been higher than average throughout his seven-year career, and while some of those fly balls will inevitably go for extra bases, he hasn’t played with an outfield as defensively proficient as the Brewers’, so his numbers could be even better than anticipated next year. When Woodruff does finally make it back to the team after his lengthy rehabilitation process, someone may cede their spot, or the team could utilize a six-man rotation. You could always go out and get another arm just to be safe, but with the current talent on the board and starting pitching talent coming at a high premium, it’s not a necessity. Bullpen Milwaukee is great at making the most of what they have. Last year, after Devin Williams was sidelined for months due to stress fractures, the team turned it into an opportunity to start grooming Trevor Megill for the full-time closer job. He excelled, accumulating 21 saves before handing off the reins. We’ve gotten to see what Megill can do over the two past seasons with the Crew, and it seems like the perfect time to promote him to the most important role in the bullpen. Behind him is the same cast of characters as we saw last season, including Joel Payamps, Jared Koenig, Bryan Hudson, and Nick Mears. While the loss of Williams is definitely a meaningful subtraction, the bullpen still looks to be in great shape heading into next year. They could get another arm if the price is right, but don’t expect the team to surrender too much of the farm trying to get a slight upgrade in the reliever department. Will It Be Enough? After remembering that they are, indeed, a big-market team, the Cubs have been fairly active this winter. In addition to signing free agents Matthew Boyd and Carson Kelly, they acquired Kyle Tucker from the Astros and traded Cody Bellinger to the Yankees. The Tucker deal in and of itself was great, but they haven’t shown signs of slowing down. There are reports that they’ve made a big push to sign Roki Sasaki, and they’ve gotten some additional breathing room in the budget after getting most of the Bellinger contract off the books. They were also in discussions to acquire Jesús Luzardo or Luis Castillo, but it seems those talks stalled. Luzardo is now a Phillie. But Chicago has quite a bit of catching up to do. They were 10 games back of Milwaukee in 2024, and without subsequent moves to improve other parts of their lineup, it would seem that the Brewers are safe for now. The other teams in the division have practically been asleep at the wheel, and haven’t given their fans much to look forward to, so it seems like 2025 could be yet another year of the Brewers taking the top spot in the NL Central. Getting past the other titans in the National League is a different story. As usual, the bigger spenders in the East and West divisions have more obvious talent on paper, but a closer look suggests there is a smaller gap than one might otherwise expect. It may not be enough for the team to win the World Series, but if the team shows up to Opening Day with the roster as-is, it’s looking like another successful regular season for the Brew Crew. View full article

The team’s lockdown closer has been shuttled off to the Big Apple. What does the reliever hierarchy look like in his absence? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images This isn’t the first time this has happened in recent history. Before Devin Williams, the team’s go-to high-leverage pitcher was a lefty by the name of Josh Hader. He was also traded before hitting free agency, albeit under slightly different circumstances. Williams was still outstanding in his final year with the team, whereas Hader had the worst season of his career before ultimately being swung to the Padres in mid-2022. Suffice it to say, Milwaukee is no stranger to trading away top-tier closers and retooling the setup of their bullpen. They actually got a glimpse of what the roster would look like without Williams while he was on the shelf for much of 2024, due to stress fractures in his back. In his stead, Trevor Megill stepped up and performed admirably, accumulating 21 saves and posting a dominant 1.80 ERA over those outings. In many ways, his profile was perfect for his new responsibilities. A triple-digit four-seam fastball and a knuckle curve with a 55.0% whiff rate confused hitters and will likely be the key to elevating him to full-time closer come 2025. But what about the other bullpen arms? What other tools will be in Pat Murphy's toolbox? Behind Megill on the depth chart is Joel Payamps. He was a reliable reliever in 2024, posting a 3.05 ERA and even accumulating six saves of his own, but there were clear holes in his game. With good-not-great strikeout and whiff rates and a penchant for giving up some hard contact, he’ll likely be limited to lower-leverage innings. His FIP of 3.73 and his xERA of 4.11 point to the possibility that he may have been more lucky than sustainably effective last year. Behind Payamps is Jared Koenig, whose first year in the majors since 2022 was great, culminating in a 2.47 ERA over 62 innings. Like Payamps, his strikeout rate was average and his per-swing whiff rate (22.4%) was in the bottom quartile of qualified pitchers, so it’s tough to see him handling anything too intense. However, he was better than Payamps at inducing soft contact and could move forward in the depth chart in 2025 if he keeps up the good work. An important adjustment for him would be developing a second plus pitch to complement his sinker. His cutter had satisfactory production but with a slugging percentage of .424, it might need some refinements before it’s ready for the big innings. Abner Uribe has a big question mark hanging over his head. After disappointing results in 2024 that included an unnecessary altercation with the Rays and season-ending knee surgery, he feels far removed from the buzz he created in 2023. He has shown the ability to be an outstanding arm with exceptional stuff, but his lack of command and experience are big obstacles. If he does manage to lock in for the upcoming year, he could be next in line and pick up a few saves, but there’s considerable room for improvement. Bryan Hudson was an underrated rookie who put up a sneaky 1.73 ERA and an incredible 0.72 WHIP over his 62 ⅓ innings of work. One of the best lefty relievers in the game, his massive 6'8” frame and wicked sweeper helped compensate for a fastball velocity in the low 90s, which sagged ever lower as his first full season in the big leagues progressed. Similar to Koenig, there’s intriguing potential here, but a small sample size leaves just enough uncertainty to keep things exciting. Other arms like Elvis Peguero and Nick Mears could soon be joined by some of the organization’s best prospects. At the top of the list to be called up would be Craig Yoho, who spent his 2024 dicing up three levels of the minor leagues. From High-A Wisconsin to Triple-A Nashville, Yoho’s combined a 0.94 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP. His 42.4% strikeout rate indicates just how successful he was. Fans have been clamoring for him to strut his stuff at the big-league level, and it might not be long before their wishes are granted. Megill is the clear frontrunner for the closer job. He was there last year; his arsenal and stuff are perfect for it; and he’s the most dependable arm in the bullpen right now. If he goes down or can’t come in on back-to-back days, Murphy has the luxury of several great options, but expect Hudson, Koenig and Uribe to be the subject of many of his phone calls come the later innings of next season's games. View full article

Milwaukee picked up some short-term starting rotation help in Friday's trade. Looking down the road, though, they might want to consider a commitment to their incumbent ace. Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images Although the Winter Meetings just passed and Christmas is still over a week off, several major starting pitchers have already inked new deals. Blake Snell broke the ice by signing a five-year, $182-million deal with the Dodgers, only to be outdone by Max Fried signing an eight-year, $218-million contract with the Yankees. While these players were far outside the financial reach of the Brewers, other free agents like Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, and Frankie Montas were signed for more reasonable amounts that could’ve fit into Milwaukee’s budget (with a few contortions). To make matters worse, Garrett Crochet, a trade target the Brewers had been eyeing, also found a new home with the Boston Red Sox, leaving the Crew with few feasible options. They might have to roll into 2025 with (more or less) the rotation they already project to have. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta has two $8-million team options, one of which has already been picked up for 2025. Assuming the team also exercises the 2026 option, he would hit free agency by age 30, the same age as Max Fried. He wouldn’t net as much as Fried, but it's clear that his market value will be in nine figures if he gets to that point with his arm intact. So, since the Devin Williams trade added long-term help to the infield but only a one-year patch to the rotation, could locking down Peralta for a second time be top of mind? The 2024 campaign was Peralta's first as the ace of the team. In the absence of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, he was shoved into the spotlight and forced to lead a rotation ravaged by injury. He performed admirably, posting a 3.68 ERA with 10.4 K/9 over 173 ⅔ innings. This gave him 2.6 rWAR, the second-best year of his career behind his exceptional 2021 campaign. There was a lot to like about his profile, including top-quartile whiff and strikeout rates. In addition to having a good four-seam fastball (as usual), his changeup became remarkably efficient this year, compensating for a reduction in effectiveness from his curveball. He threw his changeup 17.5% of the time (highest in his career), while cutting his curveball usage down to 7.1% (lowest in his career). Unfortunately, all the good came with much of the usual bad. His WHIP of 1.22 and 9.2 H/9 were higher than any other full seasons of his career. He also allowed 1.3 HR/9 and a walk rate of 9.4%, dragging his FIP to 4.16 despite the good strikeout rates. He seemed to struggle with expanding the zone effectively, and gave up a considerable amount of hard contact as a result. His chase rate of 28.0% was slightly below the league average, while his barrel and ground-ball rates were near the bottom quartile of qualified pitchers. This means that for an ace, hitters spat on his offerings outside of the zone—while hitting his strikes hard and in the air, a recipe that rarely leads to long-term success. For the Brewers to make an offer tempting enough to delay his free agency again, there are likely a few criteria they’d have to satisfy. First, the deal would have to be done before the 2026 season, nullifying the team-friendly $8 million salary they originally agreed to. Second, despite his flaws, he is likely hoping for a free-agent deal in the $100-150 million range, setting that as the price Milwaukee would have to beat (less some discount, to account for the risk the Brewers would take and Peralta would avoid by signing before the necessary decision point). Third, it would probably have to end early enough for him to sign another short-term deal, or long enough for it to set him up for the rest of his career. The sweet spot here might be an opt-out. A deal that gives him a significant raise for 2026 in exchange for two extra years of team control would be workable for the Brewers. Peralta would prefer a true megadeal, but might take a much lighter version in exchange for the opportunity to hit the market again after 2028 if he so chose. A seven-year deal worth $170 million (with an opt-out after three years and $70 million) could make sense. Such a deal could include deferrals in the highest-paid seasons of the deal (likely 2028-31) and/or a mutual option for 2033 with a buyout involved, to push some of the payments out to the middle of next decade. The Brewers would get an extra two years of team control over Peralta (at a minimum), and Peralta would get plenty of compensation for giving up the chance to make $50 million more by taking himself all the way to free agency. But is this even something the Brewers would/should do? On one hand, it’s high time that the front office looks into paying to retain an ace. They let Burnes walk, and haven’t made a huge, market-rate commitment to anyone since Christian Yelich. For the past several years, the team’s pitching has been a major point of strength, allowing them to compete with the bigger spending teams through more clever scouting and development. Extending a known arm would theoretically bring stability to the best part of the organization. On the other hand, Peralta arguably isn’t the guy to invest in. His struggles with consistency and penchant for alternating between excellent and horrid stretches on the mound don’t help his case for a long-term commitment. If Milwaukee does want to extend a pitcher, maybe it would make more sense to wait and see how Woodruff bounces back from the injury that pulverized his 2024 campaign. Simply put, the known costs seem too high to receive an unknown upside. Will Peralta continue to be a starter with great stuff and rediscover what made him great three years ago, or will he slowly but surely fall victim to his current shortcomings? It’s hard to say, and for a front office as shrewd as the Brewers’, it’s probably more risk than reward. View full article

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Surprisingly, Milwaukee now has an excess of manpower in the rotation. What will they do with the excess resources? It finally happened. The Brewers’ most valuable trade asset, Devin Williams, was finally sent to new digs. In return, the Yankees gave up $2 million, including infield prospect Caleb Durbin and Nestor Cortes. With Nestor’s arrival, Milwaukee has too many starting pitchers to go around, so who will they get rid of to clear up roster space and payroll? It’s natural to assume that Milwaukee is simply a temporary landing spot for Cortes and that he probably shouldn’t be considering putting money down for a condo in Historic Third Ward. However, the situation may not be that simple. When healthy, he has proven himself to be a good starter option; his career peaked in 2021-2022, where he posted a 2.61 ERA over a combined 251 ⅓ innings for the Yankees. After struggling in 2023 and sustaining a rotator cuff strain, he pitched to a 3.77 ERA over 174 ⅓ innings in 2024, suggesting a return to form. Unfortunately, some flaws he showed while pitching through injury persisted last season. Aside from a walk rate of 5.5%, his other statistics were around or below the league average. Most concerning was his tendency to give up hard contact to opposing hitters. His sweeper and four-seam fastball were the biggest pain points, which had respective slugging percentages of .511 and .443. Aside from a slight dip in changeup frequency, there haven’t been too many changes to his velocity, arm angle, or usage between his 2022 and 2024 campaigns. Hence, these results may be affected by lingering injuries. This is further supported by the fact that he missed almost all of the Yankees’ most recent postseason run due to a left elbow flexor strain. On the bright side, he did manage to recover in time for the World Series, and it seems that Milwaukee did its due diligence to ensure that he would have a clean bill of health before being included in the trade. He reportedly had an MRI a few weeks ago, which allowed him to begin his offseason throwing program on time. This means that the Brewers are likely intent on keeping him. After all, why bother with a thorough physical exam unless the team wants to know exactly what they’re working with and whether their reputed pitching development program will get the best out of his arm. It's even more important when considering they may only have him for a short period, given that he’s entering his final year of arbitration and is slated to hit free agency in 2026. On a similar timeline is Aaron Civale who will become a free agent in the same year as Cortes. Civale had a great showing with the Brewers, making 14 starts and posting a 3.53 ERA, a major step forward following a disappointing tenure with the Rays. While his surface-level numbers were strong, underlying figures may be more concerning. His FIP of 4.79 while with the Brewers was evidence of his susceptibility to the long ball while having a below-average strikeout rate of just 20.9%. Furthermore, a WHIP of 1.22 shows that he’s giving up a few more baserunners than the team would probably like. In comparison, Nestor’s FIP of 3.84 was not only better than Civale’s, it was much closer to his actual ERA. Civale made great use of his cutter in 2024 but struggled to deploy an effective pitch outside of it. His sinker and curveball complemented his cutter well in past years but they lacked the same production last season. A quick glance shows that his curveball command regressed while his sinker lacked both the velocity and movement needed to get the necessary outs. With the return of great talent like Brandon Woodruff and DL Hall, trading one of these two options seems like a necessary step to optimize the roster heading into 2025. Nestor seems like he has more upside while the team knows what they’re getting (or not getting) out of Civale. Given the prerequisites around the Nestor transaction, it seems like he’s here to stay (at least for a year) while Civale will be shown the door in exchange for some prospect talent. Any suitors looking for a back-of-the-rotation arm could make great use of him and he’d likely benefit them more than he’d benefit Milwaukee. He played an important role while he was with the team but with the talent ahead of him in the depth chart, it's difficult to see a clear road ahead for him. View full article

The biggest baseball contract ever is large enough to send shockwaves from New York all the way to Milwaukee. Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images The Brewers didn’t exactly miss out on signing Juan Soto. In order to miss out, one needs to be in contention first. With the final tally on this historic deal reaching a nearly unfathomable $765 million, Milwaukee missed out on signing him only the way Rowdy Tellez missed out on Olympic gold in the 200-meter dash. However, that doesn’t mean that they won’t still feel the burn of this contract. Soto returning to the National League after his year with the Yankees naturally means that the Brewers will be playing against him more frequently. It also means that he and his new Mets teammates will now be serious obstacles for future postseason spots. The NL East is rich with talent, and along with the Phillies and Braves, the Mets form a dangerous three-headed beast that could be perennial October competitors. Only one team can win the division, meaning two East teams could end up occupying all but one of the NL Wild Card spots, a situation that has unfolded three years in a row. Even the Nationals could be on the cusp of elbowing their way into the playoff picture, with young talent like CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews and James Wood. In the Central, the choice seems to be between winning the division or missing out entirely. The last time an NL Central team snagged a Wild Card spot was in 2021, when the Cardinals squeezed in with 90 wins. Recency bias would dictate that Milwaukee has a pretty defensible position as kings of the Central, but baseball is a fickle sport and teams can go from winning 107 games in a year to riding the postseason bench, like the Giants. Speaking of the Giants, their recent acquisition of Willy Adames presents another challenge for the Brewers: finding a suitable replacement for their now-vacant shortstop position. Adames was worth 14.0 rWAR over the nearly four years he spent with the team, and was regularly one of the squad’s most valuable assets. Given San Francisco’s appraisal of Adames reaching $182 million over seven years, it seems doubtful Milwaukee will easily find someone of the same caliber to fill his shoes. They could choose to utilize Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang, but either way, the roster will still be left with a vacant spot somewhere in the infield. Meanwhile, the Giants (arguably still lagging both San Diego and Arizona in the wake of the Dodgers Death Star) got stronger. So how does 2025 look for Milwaukee? It’s still hard to say, as the organization has yet to make any moves of note this offseason. Last year, Corbin Burnes wasn’t traded until February, and the deal brought back DL Hall and the aforementioned Ortiz, so a big trade deal involving someone like Devin Williams could still be in the works. Furthermore, enticing sleeper and post-hype free agents like Tim Anderson and Aledmys Díaz are still up for grabs, so get them while they’re hot! Jokes aside, don’t expect the Crew to acquire a suitable infield free agent, as this year’s crop is lacking, to say the least. The Brewers’ front office can’t afford to be ignorant of what they’re now up against in the National League. The Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, and Mets are big-market fat cats (or, in San Diego's case, are willing to pretend to be) and will be recurring threats. The Braves have an abundance of talent on long-term, team-friendly contracts. The Diamondbacks and Giants are waiting on the wings for whatever table scraps are left once the divisions have been carved up. Even within its own division, a dominion so easily conquered for the past few years is full of encroaching enemies in the Cubs and Pirates. The walls are closing in on Milwaukee; their regular-season margin for error is now the smallest it has been in years. Can the organization step up to the plate? Let’s wait and see. View full article