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The Current State of Things After an unfortunate (or fortunate, depending on who you ask) five-game losing streak, the Cubs skidded to 6.5 games behind in the NL Central. More importantly, they are back to being neck-and-neck with the Reds. As of now, here are the division standings. While the Brewers’ neighbors have floundered in recent weeks, the other NL Wild Card contenders have pulled ahead, namely the Marlins who just completed a dominating sweep over the Braves this past weekend. As a result, here is what the playoff bracket would look like if the postseason started immediately. Outlook On The Remainder of the Season The Cubs, Marlins, and Reds all have 78 wins while the Diamondbacks have 79, so to say that things are quite close would be an understatement. Heck, the Phillies is only two games ahead of the pack at 81 and the Giants are only two games behind at 76, so we might see some additional shuffling in the next few weeks. One thing that’s almost certain is the Brewers ending up as the #3 seed. The Braves and Dodgers have clinched the #1 and #2 seeds respectively and unless you think the Cubs will capitalize on their 1.2% chance to take the top spot in the NL Central, the Brewers will stay where they are now. That means facing the #6 seed, which according to FanGraphs, is likely going to be the Marlins or the Cubs. Potential Playoff Matchups Milwaukee has a small sample size of just four games against Miami but went 3-1 against them this season. Despite making trades for bats like Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the deadline, the Marlins are posting average offensive numbers (.716 team OPS, 17th in MLB) in the second half. This bodes well for the Brewers, whose pitching seems to have a big advantage over the Miami lineup. Given the three-game setup of the Wild Card round, a quick 1-2 punch of Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff paired with any of the devastating arms in the bullpen should make for quick work. The Cubs have been a steeper challenge this year and got hot in July and August, going 33-20. Despite regressing in September, standouts like Justin Steele and Cody Bellinger continue to exceed expectations across the board. Furthermore, they have one of the best defensive infields in baseball. Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson alone combine for 35 OAA and Nick Madrigal's figure of 9 OAA isn't too shabby either. Given the Brewers already weak offense, a three-game series with the Cubs might more of a toss-up. The NLDS is where things start to get a little scary. Going 1-5 against the Dodgers this season, the Brewers' only hope will be a heavily depleted Los Angeles starting rotation. Other than Clayton Kershaw (who is great in the playoffs as we all know), the Dodgers' hopes rest on a handful of young pitchers, Ryan Yarbrough, and Lance Lynn. If Milwaukee is unable to do damage in the early innings, they'll struggle even more with the Dodgers' fourth-best bullpen in baseball (3.57 team ERA). Given the chaos of baseball, it would be conjecture to try and project an NLCS and/or World Series opponent, but one thing is for sure - the Brewers present a real challenge to any team and should not be taken lightly. Hopefully their on-field performance matches up with what they're capable of on paper.
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Through 144 games, the Brewers have had one constant: their rotation. Despite some rough starts and long-term injuries, their starting pitchers continue to impress. The team’s last three starts prove that the top of their rotation is reaching peak form just in time for the final stage of their postseason push. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Burnes Flirts With A No-No In perhaps his best performance this season, Corbin Burnes tossed eight no-hit innings against the New York Yankees. While the Brewers ultimately lost in 13 innings, his individual performance still managed to stand out, as he amassed seven strikeouts and 16 swings and misses. He singlehandedly added 55.9% win probability. If his pitch count was a smidge lower than 109 and the Brewers were able to put up any semblance of run support, he may have thrown his first individual no-hitter (he and Josh Hader combined for a no-hitter in September 2021). This was a great way to bounce back from a pair of mediocre performances that saw him give up 10 earned runs in 12 total innings against the Minnesota Twins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite his inconsistencies, Burnes has proven that he can still perform at the highest level, and his postseason experience (albeit a small sample of just 15 innings) goes to show that he can dial up the heat when it really counts. Woodruff Goes All The Way Despite having been back on the team for just over a month, Brandon Woodruff has made his presence felt as one of the best starting pitchers in the sport. Across 56 innings pitched, he’s currently at a 1.93 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP. Can you imagine what things would’ve been like if he had been healthy all year? Well, he gave us a glimpse by pitching a complete-game shutout against the Miami Marlins, striking out seven along the way. The outing extended his scoreless streak to an eye-popping 21 innings. For having recently recovered from a sub-scapular strain that saw him miss four months, there’s not much more people can ask of him. His velocity, stuff, and stamina are all back to pre-injury levels. At this point in the season, he’s probably the toughest guy to face for six innings on the entire Milwaukee pitching staff. It’s Time To Fear Freddy Freddy Peralta followed up on Woodruff’s performance against the Marlins in a big way, striking out nine and giving up just one hit in 6 ⅓ innings. The All-Star break did wonders for him, as he went from posting a 4.70 ERA in 92 innings in the first half to a 2.62 ERA over 58 ⅓ innings so far in the second half. He struggled with giving up too much hard contact earlier in the season but seems to have drastically improved his ability to place and finish pitches. This allows him to attack the zone more consistently, explaining the high strikeout numbers, while reducing overall damage. While he might not be as big of a name as the 1-2 punch of Burnes and Woodruff, those who have had the privilege of watching his starts either as supporters or opponents have officially been put on notice. Come October, teams who sleep on Peralta might end up regretting it on their flights home to start their offseasons. View full article
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Burnes Flirts With A No-No In perhaps his best performance this season, Corbin Burnes tossed eight no-hit innings against the New York Yankees. While the Brewers ultimately lost in 13 innings, his individual performance still managed to stand out, as he amassed seven strikeouts and 16 swings and misses. He singlehandedly added 55.9% win probability. If his pitch count was a smidge lower than 109 and the Brewers were able to put up any semblance of run support, he may have thrown his first individual no-hitter (he and Josh Hader combined for a no-hitter in September 2021). This was a great way to bounce back from a pair of mediocre performances that saw him give up 10 earned runs in 12 total innings against the Minnesota Twins and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite his inconsistencies, Burnes has proven that he can still perform at the highest level, and his postseason experience (albeit a small sample of just 15 innings) goes to show that he can dial up the heat when it really counts. Woodruff Goes All The Way Despite having been back on the team for just over a month, Brandon Woodruff has made his presence felt as one of the best starting pitchers in the sport. Across 56 innings pitched, he’s currently at a 1.93 ERA with a 0.79 WHIP. Can you imagine what things would’ve been like if he had been healthy all year? Well, he gave us a glimpse by pitching a complete-game shutout against the Miami Marlins, striking out seven along the way. The outing extended his scoreless streak to an eye-popping 21 innings. For having recently recovered from a sub-scapular strain that saw him miss four months, there’s not much more people can ask of him. His velocity, stuff, and stamina are all back to pre-injury levels. At this point in the season, he’s probably the toughest guy to face for six innings on the entire Milwaukee pitching staff. It’s Time To Fear Freddy Freddy Peralta followed up on Woodruff’s performance against the Marlins in a big way, striking out nine and giving up just one hit in 6 ⅓ innings. The All-Star break did wonders for him, as he went from posting a 4.70 ERA in 92 innings in the first half to a 2.62 ERA over 58 ⅓ innings so far in the second half. He struggled with giving up too much hard contact earlier in the season but seems to have drastically improved his ability to place and finish pitches. This allows him to attack the zone more consistently, explaining the high strikeout numbers, while reducing overall damage. While he might not be as big of a name as the 1-2 punch of Burnes and Woodruff, those who have had the privilege of watching his starts either as supporters or opponents have officially been put on notice. Come October, teams who sleep on Peralta might end up regretting it on their flights home to start their offseasons.
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After a steaming-hot July that saw him post a 1.015 OPS, Christian Yelich cooled off immensely in August, regressing to a .676 OPS. With his downward trend continuing, there are a few good reasons why he should rest for a few weeks. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports We all know how good a healthy Christian Yelich is. This summer was a forcible reminder that that talent is still there. Alas, the summer is over. Yelich’s Performance Has Slipped, Significantly After playing the first game of the series against the New York Yankees, Yelich was benched due to lower back soreness, a move that may have been a few days (or weeks) too late. Since the start of September, Yelich has slashed just .125/.241/.167 over 29 plate appearances, a far cry from his midsummer renaissance. Yelich has been a workhorse for the Brewers for the past two seasons and for most of his career, but after fracturing his knee in 2019 and repeatedly aggravating a back issue that started in 2015, it’s more likely that his deteriorating performance is a result of injuries than anything else. Furthermore, given that he was scratched from the lineup for soreness in an an area he’s had issues with in the past, it would be a prudent move to rest him before it gets any worse. At his best, Yelich is one of the best outfielders in baseball. At his worst, he’s a liability in the lineup. History has shown us that he’s usually at his worst when he’s battling physical limitations, so maybe an extended break will help restore him to full strength. The Brewers Don’t Really Need Him In Yelich’s worst full month of the season, the Brewers had their best month since April, going 17-9 in August. The team’s offense was average, posting a .708 OPS, but the pitching was lights out. With Freddy Peralta having his best month and bullpen names like Abner Uribe, Hoby Milner, and Trevor Megill rising to the occasion, Milwaukee had a 3.36 ERA in August, third best in MLB. All year, the Brewers have made it clear that they win games through pitching and scoring barely enough runs to squeak by with the win. At 631 runs scored, they are 18th in MLB and have scored the fewest of any division-leading team (the Minnesota Twins are next, with 664). It also helps that his replacement, Tyrone Taylor, slashed .271/.339/.542 in August and has an OPS .260 points higher than Yelich’s in the limited sample size of September. Milwaukee doesn’t have the biggest lead over the Chicago Cubs, but given their relatively similar strength of schedule, FanGraphs is still giving the Brewers an 80.4% chance to win the division. Thus, benching a freezing-cold and battered Yelich accomplishes two goals. It gives the Brewers a stronger lineup to finish the regular season so they can secure their spot as the third seed, while getting Yelich ready to perform in the postseason. Something like a 10-day IL stint would likely pay dividends for the team, allowing him to heal without getting too rusty when the games start to really matter. It’s never easy to bench a player, especially when he’s the face of your organization (not to mention its highest-paid player, by a margin of $15 million a year), but managing a baseball team is all about making hard decisions. The Brewers are fortunate enough to have the outfield depth and standings position to cruise into October baseball, but if they keep letting Yelich limp out there, even that might change. View full article
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We all know how good a healthy Christian Yelich is. This summer was a forcible reminder that that talent is still there. Alas, the summer is over. Yelich’s Performance Has Slipped, Significantly After playing the first game of the series against the New York Yankees, Yelich was benched due to lower back soreness, a move that may have been a few days (or weeks) too late. Since the start of September, Yelich has slashed just .125/.241/.167 over 29 plate appearances, a far cry from his midsummer renaissance. Yelich has been a workhorse for the Brewers for the past two seasons and for most of his career, but after fracturing his knee in 2019 and repeatedly aggravating a back issue that started in 2015, it’s more likely that his deteriorating performance is a result of injuries than anything else. Furthermore, given that he was scratched from the lineup for soreness in an an area he’s had issues with in the past, it would be a prudent move to rest him before it gets any worse. At his best, Yelich is one of the best outfielders in baseball. At his worst, he’s a liability in the lineup. History has shown us that he’s usually at his worst when he’s battling physical limitations, so maybe an extended break will help restore him to full strength. The Brewers Don’t Really Need Him In Yelich’s worst full month of the season, the Brewers had their best month since April, going 17-9 in August. The team’s offense was average, posting a .708 OPS, but the pitching was lights out. With Freddy Peralta having his best month and bullpen names like Abner Uribe, Hoby Milner, and Trevor Megill rising to the occasion, Milwaukee had a 3.36 ERA in August, third best in MLB. All year, the Brewers have made it clear that they win games through pitching and scoring barely enough runs to squeak by with the win. At 631 runs scored, they are 18th in MLB and have scored the fewest of any division-leading team (the Minnesota Twins are next, with 664). It also helps that his replacement, Tyrone Taylor, slashed .271/.339/.542 in August and has an OPS .260 points higher than Yelich’s in the limited sample size of September. Milwaukee doesn’t have the biggest lead over the Chicago Cubs, but given their relatively similar strength of schedule, FanGraphs is still giving the Brewers an 80.4% chance to win the division. Thus, benching a freezing-cold and battered Yelich accomplishes two goals. It gives the Brewers a stronger lineup to finish the regular season so they can secure their spot as the third seed, while getting Yelich ready to perform in the postseason. Something like a 10-day IL stint would likely pay dividends for the team, allowing him to heal without getting too rusty when the games start to really matter. It’s never easy to bench a player, especially when he’s the face of your organization (not to mention its highest-paid player, by a margin of $15 million a year), but managing a baseball team is all about making hard decisions. The Brewers are fortunate enough to have the outfield depth and standings position to cruise into October baseball, but if they keep letting Yelich limp out there, even that might change.
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While they’ve been playing good baseball all season, the Brewers have never enjoyed a significant lead over the rest of the NL Central. Thus, there’s a chance of a tiebreaker heading into the postseason. How would that look? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Throughout the year, the Brewers have had to fight off every team in the division except the St. Louis Cardinals to retain their top spot. The Pittsburgh Pirates seized the top spot in May before going on a tragic skid out of playoff contention in June. The Cincinnati Reds were the next title contenders, after calling up Elly De La Cruz and riding some impressive momentum in July, but the Brewers pulled through and have been at the top of the division since early August, but not by much. The Looming Cubs Threat After going 18-9 in August, the Cubs made up for lost time to pull into second place, timing their surge with the decline of the Reds. Although they're currently three games behind, what would happen if Chicago manages to end up with the same number of wins as the Brewers? Luckily, MLB has a five-step system to break ties. In the event that two teams are tied for the division lead, the team that beats the other more often will be declared the champion. Interestingly, the Brewers and Cubs could not be closer head-to-head, with each team winning five of the 10 total games played so far this season. As we all well know by now, they will face each other three more times in the last series of the season. Whichever team wins that series will claim the tiebreaker between the two, in the process. What makes this matchup even more intriguing is how well the Cubs have been performing in the second half of the season, posting a .787 team OPS (7th in MLB) and a 4.12 team ERA (9th in MLB). In comparison, the Brewers pose a paltry offensive threat, posting a .702 OPS (26th in MLB) after the break and largely depending on their pitching to get them through tough matchups. The fate of the NL Central depends on whether the Brewers can bank enough of a lead for this series to be inconsequential, or else take care of business at home to close things out. What About The Wild Card? Since the Cubs are currently one of the teams taking a Wild Card spot, the two other teams where a tiebreaker might come into play to affect seeding would be the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Currently one game behind the Crew in the theoretical Wild Card table, the Phillies have bounced back from a rough spring to be the top actual NL Wild Card club. Unfortunately for them, the Brewers went 4-2 in games against Philadelphia, so if they do end up with the same number of wins, the Brewers will take the top Wild Card spot and host the second Wild Card team (presumably, the Phillies themselves) in the first round of the postseason. Not far behind are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who currently have 74 wins. If they manage to make up the difference, the Brewers would lose the tiebreaker, since they went 2-4 in matchups against them this season. After a lukewarm July and August that saw them combine for 20-31, they’re riding a downward trend and it’s unlikely they’ll manage to end up with the same number of wins as Milwaukee. On the other hand, they have taken the first two of seven games against the Cubs here in September, and are tightening the entire Wild Card picture. Should the Cubs, Brewers and Phillies (or Diamondbacks, or both) all collide at the same final wins total, by the way, the division title would be resolved first. That just reinforces the importance of winning the division, and particularly of that final series at American Family Field. If the Brewers win that series, they'll be in excellent shape. That said, while there won't be a web of potential extra games to navigate, things could still get plenty chaotic if the Crew leave the door open with their play over the final three weeks. View full article
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Throughout the year, the Brewers have had to fight off every team in the division except the St. Louis Cardinals to retain their top spot. The Pittsburgh Pirates seized the top spot in May before going on a tragic skid out of playoff contention in June. The Cincinnati Reds were the next title contenders, after calling up Elly De La Cruz and riding some impressive momentum in July, but the Brewers pulled through and have been at the top of the division since early August, but not by much. The Looming Cubs Threat After going 18-9 in August, the Cubs made up for lost time to pull into second place, timing their surge with the decline of the Reds. Although they're currently three games behind, what would happen if Chicago manages to end up with the same number of wins as the Brewers? Luckily, MLB has a five-step system to break ties. In the event that two teams are tied for the division lead, the team that beats the other more often will be declared the champion. Interestingly, the Brewers and Cubs could not be closer head-to-head, with each team winning five of the 10 total games played so far this season. As we all well know by now, they will face each other three more times in the last series of the season. Whichever team wins that series will claim the tiebreaker between the two, in the process. What makes this matchup even more intriguing is how well the Cubs have been performing in the second half of the season, posting a .787 team OPS (7th in MLB) and a 4.12 team ERA (9th in MLB). In comparison, the Brewers pose a paltry offensive threat, posting a .702 OPS (26th in MLB) after the break and largely depending on their pitching to get them through tough matchups. The fate of the NL Central depends on whether the Brewers can bank enough of a lead for this series to be inconsequential, or else take care of business at home to close things out. What About The Wild Card? Since the Cubs are currently one of the teams taking a Wild Card spot, the two other teams where a tiebreaker might come into play to affect seeding would be the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Currently one game behind the Crew in the theoretical Wild Card table, the Phillies have bounced back from a rough spring to be the top actual NL Wild Card club. Unfortunately for them, the Brewers went 4-2 in games against Philadelphia, so if they do end up with the same number of wins, the Brewers will take the top Wild Card spot and host the second Wild Card team (presumably, the Phillies themselves) in the first round of the postseason. Not far behind are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who currently have 74 wins. If they manage to make up the difference, the Brewers would lose the tiebreaker, since they went 2-4 in matchups against them this season. After a lukewarm July and August that saw them combine for 20-31, they’re riding a downward trend and it’s unlikely they’ll manage to end up with the same number of wins as Milwaukee. On the other hand, they have taken the first two of seven games against the Cubs here in September, and are tightening the entire Wild Card picture. Should the Cubs, Brewers and Phillies (or Diamondbacks, or both) all collide at the same final wins total, by the way, the division title would be resolved first. That just reinforces the importance of winning the division, and particularly of that final series at American Family Field. If the Brewers win that series, they'll be in excellent shape. That said, while there won't be a web of potential extra games to navigate, things could still get plenty chaotic if the Crew leave the door open with their play over the final three weeks.
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The Brewers ride the momentous tide of an explosive fifth inning to take the win in Pittsburgh. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff - 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 97 pitches, 63 strikes (64.9%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Brandon Woodruff (.253), Andruw Monasterio (.122), Carlos Santana (.119) Bottom 3 WPA: Mark Canha (-.087), Willy Adames (-.058), Clayton Andrews (-.018) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) There Might Be A New Ace In Town Following Corbin Burnes' less-than-stellar performance in the first game of the series and somewhat disappointing 2023 campaign overall, Brandon Woodruff continues to make a great case for himself taking the top spot in the rotation. He was nearly untouchable in this game, giving up just four baserunners over seven innings while striking out six. His velocity topped out at 97.8 mph on his sinker and 97.4 mph on his four-seam fastball. 40 innings is still quite a small sample size for this season and it may not be enough by itself for him to seize the mantle of top dog in the Brewers rotation. However, his 2.70 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 253 innings pitched for the team put the idea firmly in the realm of possibility. Brewers Finally Start Hitting Again After a weak showing in the previous game against the Pirates, Milwaukee made the necessary adjustments to prove why they deserve to lead the NL Central. After three consecutive walks and a ground ball scored the Brewers’ first run in the fourth inning, they broke out in a big way in the fifth inning. With Sal Frelick able to draw a leadoff walk, an Andruw Monasterio triple and a subsequent Brice Turang single gave the Brewers a quick 3-0 lead. The Brewers piled it on, powered by a single by Tyrone Taylor, a sacrifice fly by Christian Yelich, and a walk by William Contreras to finally call for a Pittsburgh pitching change. Despite a fresh arm replacing Andre Jackson, a one-run double by Carlos Santana and a two-run single by Mark Canha would give Milwaukee a 7-0 lead by the time the dust cleared. It was an efficient offensive performance. The Brewers scored just two runs on six hits the previous day but scored seven runs with seven hits in this game. Clayton Andrews Still Not Ready With a seven-run lead heading into the eighth inning, it was a chance for some lesser-used bullpen arms to get some pitches in. After a scoreless eighth inning, Clayton Andrews was brought in to wrap things up. In his first major league game in two months, Andrews gave up three earned runs by way of a Connor Joe home run and failed to record a single out, lifting his ERA to an impressive 43.20. He’s pitched well in AAA all season, posting a 2.57 ERA over 49 innings but just can’t seem to put things together in the big leagues. While he does have value as one of the few lefties in the bullpen, the Brewers have a wealth of relief pitching talent so it remains to be seen whether they think his potential is worth the necessary development. What’s Next? In the final game of the series, Freddy Peralta will toe the slab against a starter to be determined before an off-day. The Brewers will then head to New York to face the Yankees in a three-game series. The Brewers are maintaining a 2.5 game lead over the Chicago Cubs and a 5.5 game lead over the Cincinnati Reds. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Williams 20 24 0 0 0 44 Milner 14 16 0 14 0 44 Chafin 0 11 16 0 15 42 Megill 0 31 0 0 0 31 Wilson 0 0 18 13 0 31 Peguero 0 8 0 0 16 24 Payamps 17 0 0 0 0 17 Uribe 0 0 17 0 0 17 Andrews 0 0 0 0 5 5 Tweet Highlight View full article
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Box Score Starting Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff - 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 97 pitches, 63 strikes (64.9%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Brandon Woodruff (.253), Andruw Monasterio (.122), Carlos Santana (.119) Bottom 3 WPA: Mark Canha (-.087), Willy Adames (-.058), Clayton Andrews (-.018) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) There Might Be A New Ace In Town Following Corbin Burnes' less-than-stellar performance in the first game of the series and somewhat disappointing 2023 campaign overall, Brandon Woodruff continues to make a great case for himself taking the top spot in the rotation. He was nearly untouchable in this game, giving up just four baserunners over seven innings while striking out six. His velocity topped out at 97.8 mph on his sinker and 97.4 mph on his four-seam fastball. 40 innings is still quite a small sample size for this season and it may not be enough by itself for him to seize the mantle of top dog in the Brewers rotation. However, his 2.70 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last 253 innings pitched for the team put the idea firmly in the realm of possibility. Brewers Finally Start Hitting Again After a weak showing in the previous game against the Pirates, Milwaukee made the necessary adjustments to prove why they deserve to lead the NL Central. After three consecutive walks and a ground ball scored the Brewers’ first run in the fourth inning, they broke out in a big way in the fifth inning. With Sal Frelick able to draw a leadoff walk, an Andruw Monasterio triple and a subsequent Brice Turang single gave the Brewers a quick 3-0 lead. The Brewers piled it on, powered by a single by Tyrone Taylor, a sacrifice fly by Christian Yelich, and a walk by William Contreras to finally call for a Pittsburgh pitching change. Despite a fresh arm replacing Andre Jackson, a one-run double by Carlos Santana and a two-run single by Mark Canha would give Milwaukee a 7-0 lead by the time the dust cleared. It was an efficient offensive performance. The Brewers scored just two runs on six hits the previous day but scored seven runs with seven hits in this game. Clayton Andrews Still Not Ready With a seven-run lead heading into the eighth inning, it was a chance for some lesser-used bullpen arms to get some pitches in. After a scoreless eighth inning, Clayton Andrews was brought in to wrap things up. In his first major league game in two months, Andrews gave up three earned runs by way of a Connor Joe home run and failed to record a single out, lifting his ERA to an impressive 43.20. He’s pitched well in AAA all season, posting a 2.57 ERA over 49 innings but just can’t seem to put things together in the big leagues. While he does have value as one of the few lefties in the bullpen, the Brewers have a wealth of relief pitching talent so it remains to be seen whether they think his potential is worth the necessary development. What’s Next? In the final game of the series, Freddy Peralta will toe the slab against a starter to be determined before an off-day. The Brewers will then head to New York to face the Yankees in a three-game series. The Brewers are maintaining a 2.5 game lead over the Chicago Cubs and a 5.5 game lead over the Cincinnati Reds. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet FRI SAT SUN MON TUE TOT Williams 20 24 0 0 0 44 Milner 14 16 0 14 0 44 Chafin 0 11 16 0 15 42 Megill 0 31 0 0 0 31 Wilson 0 0 18 13 0 31 Peguero 0 8 0 0 16 24 Payamps 17 0 0 0 0 17 Uribe 0 0 17 0 0 17 Andrews 0 0 0 0 5 5 Tweet Highlight
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Totaling just six hits and four walks, Milwaukee's weak offense wasn't enough to overcome a few extra-base hits by the Pittsburgh Pirates. (Yes, them.) Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes - 6.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 105 pitches, 68 strikes (64.8%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Mark Canha (.061), Andruw Monasterio (.029), Hoby Milner (.025) Bottom 3 WPA: Corbin Burnes (-.201), Christian Yelich (-.131), Carlos Santana (-.111) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Burnes Gets Burned By Homers After managing just two hits in the first three innings, the Pirates finally figured out how to hit Burnes and tagged him for four earned runs. After a leadoff double by Andrew McCutchen in the fourth, Jack Suwinski hit a two-run home run to tie the game at 2-2. Things got worse in the fifth inning, as Burnes gave up a solo home run to Ke’Bryan Hayes and back-to-back doubles to Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen. On the bright side, it didn’t seem like any one pitch was to blame. His seven hits came pretty evenly distributed over his cutter, curveball, changeup, and slider. He was also able to get 16 swings and misses, receiving equal contributions from his slider, cutter, and curve. On the dark side, it seems that it might be a while before Corbin Burnes has another season with a sub-3.00 ERA. After having a smoking-hot July where he posted a 1.85 ERA over 39 innings pitched, Burnes regressed again, posting a 3.98 ERA in August over 31 2/3 innings pitched. He currently has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 171 innings for the year. Small Early Lead Doesn’t Hold Up The Brewers struck first, jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the second inning. After back-to-back walks by Sal Frelick and Willy Adames, Mark Canha was hit by a pitch, to load the bases with no outs. Two consecutive sacrifice flies by Victor Caratini and Brice Turang scored what would ultimately be the Brewers’ only two runs. The closest thing the team had to an offensive rally thereafter was the fourth inning, in which a Caratini double and an Andruw Monasterio single put a runner on third with just one out. Unfortunately, a tailor-made double play ball by Christian Yelich dashed any hopes of plating Caratini and raising further offensive momentum. Milner Continues To Be Immensely Underrated While they weren’t able to directly contribute to scoring themselves, Hoby Milner and Bryse Wilson kept the game as close as possible, combining for two scoreless innings of relief. Milner, in particular, continues to have a standout year, posting an impressive 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 56 innings pitched. For a reliever with an 89-mph fastball, that’s shocking. With a great ability to pitch to contact and one of the best defensive teams in the sport, he’s been able to play to his strengths and add value to the team in 2023. What’s Next? In the second game of the series, Brandon Woodruff will face a still-to-be-determined starter. With just a 2.5-game lead over the Chicago Cubs for the lead in the NL Central, every game for the Brewers is crucial, even if it’s against the Pirates--who are seven games back from the NL Wild Card spot. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Williams 0 20 24 0 0 44 Milner 0 14 16 0 14 44 Megill 0 0 31 0 0 31 B Wilson 0 0 0 18 13 31 Chafin 0 0 11 16 0 27 Payamps 0 17 0 0 0 17 Uribe 0 0 0 17 0 17 Peguero 0 0 8 0 0 8 Tweet Highlight View full article
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Box Score Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes - 6.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K, 105 pitches, 68 strikes (64.8%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Mark Canha (.061), Andruw Monasterio (.029), Hoby Milner (.025) Bottom 3 WPA: Corbin Burnes (-.201), Christian Yelich (-.131), Carlos Santana (-.111) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Burnes Gets Burned By Homers After managing just two hits in the first three innings, the Pirates finally figured out how to hit Burnes and tagged him for four earned runs. After a leadoff double by Andrew McCutchen in the fourth, Jack Suwinski hit a two-run home run to tie the game at 2-2. Things got worse in the fifth inning, as Burnes gave up a solo home run to Ke’Bryan Hayes and back-to-back doubles to Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen. On the bright side, it didn’t seem like any one pitch was to blame. His seven hits came pretty evenly distributed over his cutter, curveball, changeup, and slider. He was also able to get 16 swings and misses, receiving equal contributions from his slider, cutter, and curve. On the dark side, it seems that it might be a while before Corbin Burnes has another season with a sub-3.00 ERA. After having a smoking-hot July where he posted a 1.85 ERA over 39 innings pitched, Burnes regressed again, posting a 3.98 ERA in August over 31 2/3 innings pitched. He currently has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 171 innings for the year. Small Early Lead Doesn’t Hold Up The Brewers struck first, jumping out to a 2-0 lead in the second inning. After back-to-back walks by Sal Frelick and Willy Adames, Mark Canha was hit by a pitch, to load the bases with no outs. Two consecutive sacrifice flies by Victor Caratini and Brice Turang scored what would ultimately be the Brewers’ only two runs. The closest thing the team had to an offensive rally thereafter was the fourth inning, in which a Caratini double and an Andruw Monasterio single put a runner on third with just one out. Unfortunately, a tailor-made double play ball by Christian Yelich dashed any hopes of plating Caratini and raising further offensive momentum. Milner Continues To Be Immensely Underrated While they weren’t able to directly contribute to scoring themselves, Hoby Milner and Bryse Wilson kept the game as close as possible, combining for two scoreless innings of relief. Milner, in particular, continues to have a standout year, posting an impressive 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 56 innings pitched. For a reliever with an 89-mph fastball, that’s shocking. With a great ability to pitch to contact and one of the best defensive teams in the sport, he’s been able to play to his strengths and add value to the team in 2023. What’s Next? In the second game of the series, Brandon Woodruff will face a still-to-be-determined starter. With just a 2.5-game lead over the Chicago Cubs for the lead in the NL Central, every game for the Brewers is crucial, even if it’s against the Pirates--who are seven games back from the NL Wild Card spot. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet THU FRI SAT SUN MON TOT Williams 0 20 24 0 0 44 Milner 0 14 16 0 14 44 Megill 0 0 31 0 0 31 B Wilson 0 0 0 18 13 31 Chafin 0 0 11 16 0 27 Payamps 0 17 0 0 0 17 Uribe 0 0 0 17 0 17 Peguero 0 0 8 0 0 8 Tweet Highlight
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While it might be a stretch to say that the Brewers had a great offense in August, it was definitely a slight improvement over the rest of the season. They posted a .710 team OPS, a slight bump to their season-average of .693 OPS. So who showed up the most? Honorable Mention Sal Frelick - .239/.350/.388 (.738), 80 PA, 16 H, 4 2B, 2 HR There were some concerns around Frelick’s ability to perform at the major league level given his underwhelming .675 OPS at AAA this season but since being called up in July, he’s performed admirably. Aside from making highlight reel catches, he posted an .840 OPS over 36 plate appearances in July. He cooled down a decent amount in August but was consistent, displaying some strong on-base skills while getting some doubles and homers on the way. He’s got a long way to go, but he outperformed fellow rookies Andruw Monasterio and Joey Wiemer and has been exceeding expectations thus far. #4: Tyrone Taylor - .271/.339/.542 (.881), 65 PA, 16 H, 5 2B, 3 HR Tyrone Taylor hasn’t had a great season, but he had a great month of August. Posting a <.500 OPS heading into the month, he seemed to figure things out at the plate and racked up 11 RBI in August, four more than he had accumulated the rest of the season. While he had fewer plate appearances than his everyday counterparts, he made the most out of each opportunity. The hope is that these improvements aren’t transient and instead the results of an actual change to approach and swing, factors that could help the Brewers team significantly for the remainder of the regular season and into the playoffs. #3: Mark Canha - .271/.357/.400 (.757), 98 PA, 23 H, 5 2B, 2 HR For many fans, Mark Canha was the second half of a disappointing trade deadline that just added him and Carlos Santana as new bats to the lineup. Sure, he isn’t putting up Barry Bonds numbers but he’s showed off some improved power and ability to hit in clutch moments. On the bright side, his OPS+ of 106 with the Brewers is still slightly better than his OPS+ of 102 with the New York Mets so the argument can be made that the team got an improved version of Canha. #2: Willy Adames - .250/.330/.413 (.743), 103 PA, 23 H, 3 2B, 4 HR After a freezing cold start to the season, Willy Adames is finally returning to the shortstop we all know and love. His hot streak really started towards the second half of the month, with his ability to hit for average and power returning in a big way. In his last 15 games, he’s slashed .293/.349/.534. His season OPS of .696 still leaves a lot to be desired but who’s to say that he won’t have as hot of a September as he did August? #1: William Contreras - .280/.374/.470 (.844), 115 PA, 28 H, 10 2B, 3 HR When I sit back and think of the Brewers’ best moments in August, Contreras is somehow involved in every one. Aside from being one of the best defensive catchers in the business, he’s also known to get an extra base hit or two. Looking at his slash line for the month, he really just did it all - hit for average, walked, and hit for power. While Christian Yelich still has a slight edge in rWAR, Contreras is just 0.1 behind him and making a strong case for being the Brewers’ most valuable player this season. He’s already earned his keep as Milwaukee’s best offseason addition which honestly isn’t saying much given his peer group includes Jesse Winker and Brian Anderson.
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This season, the Brewers offense has been about as weak as an iced coffee from Starbucks but there are signs that things are moving in the right direction. Who contributed the most to Milwaukee’s hitting in August? While it might be a stretch to say that the Brewers had a great offense in August, it was definitely a slight improvement over the rest of the season. They posted a .710 team OPS, a slight bump to their season-average of .693 OPS. So who showed up the most? Honorable Mention Sal Frelick - .239/.350/.388 (.738), 80 PA, 16 H, 4 2B, 2 HR There were some concerns around Frelick’s ability to perform at the major league level given his underwhelming .675 OPS at AAA this season but since being called up in July, he’s performed admirably. Aside from making highlight reel catches, he posted an .840 OPS over 36 plate appearances in July. He cooled down a decent amount in August but was consistent, displaying some strong on-base skills while getting some doubles and homers on the way. He’s got a long way to go, but he outperformed fellow rookies Andruw Monasterio and Joey Wiemer and has been exceeding expectations thus far. #4: Tyrone Taylor - .271/.339/.542 (.881), 65 PA, 16 H, 5 2B, 3 HR Tyrone Taylor hasn’t had a great season, but he had a great month of August. Posting a <.500 OPS heading into the month, he seemed to figure things out at the plate and racked up 11 RBI in August, four more than he had accumulated the rest of the season. While he had fewer plate appearances than his everyday counterparts, he made the most out of each opportunity. The hope is that these improvements aren’t transient and instead the results of an actual change to approach and swing, factors that could help the Brewers team significantly for the remainder of the regular season and into the playoffs. #3: Mark Canha - .271/.357/.400 (.757), 98 PA, 23 H, 5 2B, 2 HR For many fans, Mark Canha was the second half of a disappointing trade deadline that just added him and Carlos Santana as new bats to the lineup. Sure, he isn’t putting up Barry Bonds numbers but he’s showed off some improved power and ability to hit in clutch moments. On the bright side, his OPS+ of 106 with the Brewers is still slightly better than his OPS+ of 102 with the New York Mets so the argument can be made that the team got an improved version of Canha. #2: Willy Adames - .250/.330/.413 (.743), 103 PA, 23 H, 3 2B, 4 HR After a freezing cold start to the season, Willy Adames is finally returning to the shortstop we all know and love. His hot streak really started towards the second half of the month, with his ability to hit for average and power returning in a big way. In his last 15 games, he’s slashed .293/.349/.534. His season OPS of .696 still leaves a lot to be desired but who’s to say that he won’t have as hot of a September as he did August? #1: William Contreras - .280/.374/.470 (.844), 115 PA, 28 H, 10 2B, 3 HR When I sit back and think of the Brewers’ best moments in August, Contreras is somehow involved in every one. Aside from being one of the best defensive catchers in the business, he’s also known to get an extra base hit or two. Looking at his slash line for the month, he really just did it all - hit for average, walked, and hit for power. While Christian Yelich still has a slight edge in rWAR, Contreras is just 0.1 behind him and making a strong case for being the Brewers’ most valuable player this season. He’s already earned his keep as Milwaukee’s best offseason addition which honestly isn’t saying much given his peer group includes Jesse Winker and Brian Anderson. View full article
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The Brewers had their best month since April, going 17-9. A lot of that success was due to the team’s excellent pitching staff, but who stood out in particular? In the month of August, Milwaukee pitchers combined to post a team ERA of 3.36, third best in the big leagues. More impressively, they had the lowest opposing batting average of .206. That being said, some guys pulled their weight more than others. Andrew Chafin struggled immensely out of the bullpen after coming to the team in a trade deadline move and Adrian Houser posted a 5.01 ERA before once again heading to the IL . But enough negativity, who put the team on their back? Honorable Mention Abner Uribe - 14 G, 2.08 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13.0 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 15 K In his second month of major league action, Abner Uribe continued to impress. One of the most exciting up and coming relievers, Uribe is another classic example of a live arm with some control issues. With an average fastball velocity of 99.5 mph and a slider that moves like magic, further development and time spent with the Brewers pitching lab could make him even more lethal than he already is. He also managed to throw the fastest pitch ever thrown by a Brewer in the Statcast era. August Pitchers of the Month #4. Bryse Wilson - 7 G, 1.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 10 H, 3 BB, 11 K Bryse Wilson’s value as a long reliever continues to pay dividends for the Brewers, most notably in a game against the Padres on August 27th that saw him pitch four scoreless innings. In total, he made four relief appearances of two innings or more, giving up earned runs in only one of those games. After a rough end to July that saw him concede four runs in one inning against the Braves, this was a great way to bounce back. #3. Devin Williams - 11 G, 1.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 9.0 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 15 K It’s almost repetitive to continue lauding praise upon one of the best closers in professional baseball, but it’s important to recognize his contributions nonetheless. Along the way to giving up a single earned run all month, Williams recorded five saves and posted his best WHIP figure of his already superlative season. Still heavily dependent on his signature airbender, his opponent batting average on that pitch this season is a pitiful .106, but what do you expect when major-leaguers are struggling to make contact on bunts? #2. Trevor Megill - 6 G, 0.00 ERA, 0.682 WHIP, 7.1 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K In a surprising twist, Megill went from being optioned to AAA three times this season to having one of the most dominant months a relief pitcher can have. He’s always had intimidating power, averaging a blistering 99.0 mph on his four-seam fastball and sometimes getting into the triple digits, but better placement of his pitches within the zone was largely to credit for his improvement. Rather than dumping all of his pitches right into the heart of the zone like he did in 2021-22, he began to attack the edges of the zone, allowing him to cruise through August without giving up a single run. Matt Trueblood published a great analysis on the changes he made if you want to know more. #1. Freddy Peralta - 5 G, 2.10 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 30.0 IP, 17 H, 10 BB, 46 K August was the month where we saw what Freddy Peralta is truly capable of. Reminiscent of his 2021 all-star season, Peralta performed spectacularly in his five starts, posting his highest cumulative K/9 and K/W figures of the season at 13.8 and 4.60 respectively. While his last two starts were a little shaky and didn’t see him go a full six-innings, he had three starts that saw him strike out more than nine batters on the way to going 5-0. While the rest of the rotation had somewhat inconsistent performances throughout the month, Freddy Peralta was an unmoving beacon of hope, anchoring the pitching staff every five days. View full article
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In the month of August, Milwaukee pitchers combined to post a team ERA of 3.36, third best in the big leagues. More impressively, they had the lowest opposing batting average of .206. That being said, some guys pulled their weight more than others. Andrew Chafin struggled immensely out of the bullpen after coming to the team in a trade deadline move and Adrian Houser posted a 5.01 ERA before once again heading to the IL . But enough negativity, who put the team on their back? Honorable Mention Abner Uribe - 14 G, 2.08 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 13.0 IP, 7 H, 6 BB, 15 K In his second month of major league action, Abner Uribe continued to impress. One of the most exciting up and coming relievers, Uribe is another classic example of a live arm with some control issues. With an average fastball velocity of 99.5 mph and a slider that moves like magic, further development and time spent with the Brewers pitching lab could make him even more lethal than he already is. He also managed to throw the fastest pitch ever thrown by a Brewer in the Statcast era. August Pitchers of the Month #4. Bryse Wilson - 7 G, 1.35 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 10 H, 3 BB, 11 K Bryse Wilson’s value as a long reliever continues to pay dividends for the Brewers, most notably in a game against the Padres on August 27th that saw him pitch four scoreless innings. In total, he made four relief appearances of two innings or more, giving up earned runs in only one of those games. After a rough end to July that saw him concede four runs in one inning against the Braves, this was a great way to bounce back. #3. Devin Williams - 11 G, 1.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 9.0 IP, 3 H, 3 BB, 15 K It’s almost repetitive to continue lauding praise upon one of the best closers in professional baseball, but it’s important to recognize his contributions nonetheless. Along the way to giving up a single earned run all month, Williams recorded five saves and posted his best WHIP figure of his already superlative season. Still heavily dependent on his signature airbender, his opponent batting average on that pitch this season is a pitiful .106, but what do you expect when major-leaguers are struggling to make contact on bunts? #2. Trevor Megill - 6 G, 0.00 ERA, 0.682 WHIP, 7.1 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 13 K In a surprising twist, Megill went from being optioned to AAA three times this season to having one of the most dominant months a relief pitcher can have. He’s always had intimidating power, averaging a blistering 99.0 mph on his four-seam fastball and sometimes getting into the triple digits, but better placement of his pitches within the zone was largely to credit for his improvement. Rather than dumping all of his pitches right into the heart of the zone like he did in 2021-22, he began to attack the edges of the zone, allowing him to cruise through August without giving up a single run. Matt Trueblood published a great analysis on the changes he made if you want to know more. #1. Freddy Peralta - 5 G, 2.10 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 30.0 IP, 17 H, 10 BB, 46 K August was the month where we saw what Freddy Peralta is truly capable of. Reminiscent of his 2021 all-star season, Peralta performed spectacularly in his five starts, posting his highest cumulative K/9 and K/W figures of the season at 13.8 and 4.60 respectively. While his last two starts were a little shaky and didn’t see him go a full six-innings, he had three starts that saw him strike out more than nine batters on the way to going 5-0. While the rest of the rotation had somewhat inconsistent performances throughout the month, Freddy Peralta was an unmoving beacon of hope, anchoring the pitching staff every five days.
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After being released by the New York Yankees on August 29th, third baseman Josh Donaldson signed a minor-league deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. He’ll be eligible for the team’s postseason roster but why was he signed in the first place? Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Donaldson of Days Past In the first half of the 2010s, Josh Donaldson was one of the best third basemen in baseball. From 2013-2017, he slashed .282/.377/.524, won three all-star nominations, two silver sluggers, and an MVP award. For his defensive efforts, he won a Fielding Bible award in 2014 and had a total of 17 defensive runs saved over the five-year period. He was one of the game’s most exciting players but he entered the league at a relative old age and was already an injury risk, resulting in him being traded to Cleveland in 2018. That season, he was sidelined by calf and shoulder issues and played in just 52 total games. Surprisingly, he had a career resurgence after joining the Atlanta Braves in 2019, putting up a .900 OPS and winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year award along with receiving some MVP votes. Leveraging this performance, he signed a four-year, $92mm contract with the Minnesota Twins. Two seasons, and a plethora in leg injuries later, he was part of a largely controversial trade to the New York Yankees. The Good If we take a look at purely his past two seasons in New York (he made just 120 plate appearances this season), there are still some positive qualities to speak of. Perhaps the two most standout characteristics of his game that still remain from the past are his exit velocity and defensive ability. In 2022, Donaldson had an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph, better than 81% of the league. This was helped by his 66th percentile barrel rate. While this was actually lower than his career average by about 3 mph, he was making quality contact more often than ever before, logging a career-high sweet-spot percentage of 34.8%. In 2022, Donaldson also had a Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) of 7 and an Outs Above Average (OAA) of 6, third in the American League for both statistics. While not quite as prolific as his National League counterparts, his fielding ability allowed him to make some flashy plays and was definitely better than his cumulative output at the plate. As an added bonus, he’s still walking at a rate of about 10.0%, better than league-average (72nd percentile in 2022). The Bad So if Donaldson hits the ball hard and plays great defense, why was he released by the Yankees? Well the key thing to remember is that Donaldson hit the ball hard, but only when he actually hit the ball, which he didn’t do most of the time. With an incredible 27.1% strikeout rate and a whopping 33.2% whiff rate, Donaldson was missing pitches over the plate so much it became quite the internet meme. He was also only slightly faster than Rowdy Tellez last season, leading to a seventh percentile baserunning run value of -3. This often led to some downright hilarious baserunning gaffes, unless you were a Yankees fan in which case they were immensely infuriating. To make matters worse, he seemed to lean into his feast-or-famine approach in his limited playing in 2023, batting a paltry .142 with just 15 total hits, 10 of which were home runs. So what do you get when you combine a much-too-high strikeout rate with lower exit velocity and snail-like sprint speed? To many in New York, they got a spectacular waste of almost $46mm in salary. The Ugly Outside of performance, Donaldson has been a controversial player since entering the league full-time in 2013. After numerous altercations with the likes of Manny Machado, John Gibbons, Joe Musgrove, and numerous umpires, things came to a head in 2022 when he caused the benches to clear in a game against the White Sox. After greeting Tim Anderson as “Jackie Robinson,” a title Anderson gave himself in a 2019 interview with Bleacher Report, Donaldson’s public perception took an absolute nosedive. Coupled with his underwhelming performance and cocky attitude of bat flipping flyouts and singles, he became one of the least-liked players in all of baseball. There were further reports about his negative presence in the locker room, most recently a report by Jeff Passan that stated that he did not get along with teammates in Minnesota very well at all. So Why Is He A Brewer Now? Third base has been a hole in the Brewers lineup all season. After a white-hot first few weeks, Brian Anderson quickly regressed into a .675 OPS, ceding his top spot in the depth chart to rookie Andruw Monasterio. While Monasterio isn’t necessarily performing criminally, his .685 OPS isn’t much of an improvement. There are a few considerations when looking at the signing of Donaldson. First, it’s a minor-league deal, so Donaldson will only be paid a prorated portion of the major-league minimum salary, significantly less than the $23mm he was receiving before. Second, this signing structure means that he won’t be immediately added to the 40-man roster. All in all, this is an experiment by the Brewers. If he can perform well in a couple of games at the AAA level and show signs of being a potential value-add to the team to bolster one of the weaker parts of their roster, then he will likely be an important part of their playoff push. If not, then they don’t lose much anyway so fans should be more curious than upset about this deal. Who knows, maybe he’ll find a way to help bring rain to the city of Milwaukee. View full article
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Brewers Sign Josh Donaldson: Bringer of Rain or Bringer of Pain?
Jason Wang posted an article in Brewers
Donaldson of Days Past In the first half of the 2010s, Josh Donaldson was one of the best third basemen in baseball. From 2013-2017, he slashed .282/.377/.524, won three all-star nominations, two silver sluggers, and an MVP award. For his defensive efforts, he won a Fielding Bible award in 2014 and had a total of 17 defensive runs saved over the five-year period. He was one of the game’s most exciting players but he entered the league at a relative old age and was already an injury risk, resulting in him being traded to Cleveland in 2018. That season, he was sidelined by calf and shoulder issues and played in just 52 total games. Surprisingly, he had a career resurgence after joining the Atlanta Braves in 2019, putting up a .900 OPS and winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year award along with receiving some MVP votes. Leveraging this performance, he signed a four-year, $92mm contract with the Minnesota Twins. Two seasons, and a plethora in leg injuries later, he was part of a largely controversial trade to the New York Yankees. The Good If we take a look at purely his past two seasons in New York (he made just 120 plate appearances this season), there are still some positive qualities to speak of. Perhaps the two most standout characteristics of his game that still remain from the past are his exit velocity and defensive ability. In 2022, Donaldson had an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph, better than 81% of the league. This was helped by his 66th percentile barrel rate. While this was actually lower than his career average by about 3 mph, he was making quality contact more often than ever before, logging a career-high sweet-spot percentage of 34.8%. In 2022, Donaldson also had a Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) of 7 and an Outs Above Average (OAA) of 6, third in the American League for both statistics. While not quite as prolific as his National League counterparts, his fielding ability allowed him to make some flashy plays and was definitely better than his cumulative output at the plate. As an added bonus, he’s still walking at a rate of about 10.0%, better than league-average (72nd percentile in 2022). The Bad So if Donaldson hits the ball hard and plays great defense, why was he released by the Yankees? Well the key thing to remember is that Donaldson hit the ball hard, but only when he actually hit the ball, which he didn’t do most of the time. With an incredible 27.1% strikeout rate and a whopping 33.2% whiff rate, Donaldson was missing pitches over the plate so much it became quite the internet meme. He was also only slightly faster than Rowdy Tellez last season, leading to a seventh percentile baserunning run value of -3. This often led to some downright hilarious baserunning gaffes, unless you were a Yankees fan in which case they were immensely infuriating. To make matters worse, he seemed to lean into his feast-or-famine approach in his limited playing in 2023, batting a paltry .142 with just 15 total hits, 10 of which were home runs. So what do you get when you combine a much-too-high strikeout rate with lower exit velocity and snail-like sprint speed? To many in New York, they got a spectacular waste of almost $46mm in salary. The Ugly Outside of performance, Donaldson has been a controversial player since entering the league full-time in 2013. After numerous altercations with the likes of Manny Machado, John Gibbons, Joe Musgrove, and numerous umpires, things came to a head in 2022 when he caused the benches to clear in a game against the White Sox. After greeting Tim Anderson as “Jackie Robinson,” a title Anderson gave himself in a 2019 interview with Bleacher Report, Donaldson’s public perception took an absolute nosedive. Coupled with his underwhelming performance and cocky attitude of bat flipping flyouts and singles, he became one of the least-liked players in all of baseball. There were further reports about his negative presence in the locker room, most recently a report by Jeff Passan that stated that he did not get along with teammates in Minnesota very well at all. So Why Is He A Brewer Now? Third base has been a hole in the Brewers lineup all season. After a white-hot first few weeks, Brian Anderson quickly regressed into a .675 OPS, ceding his top spot in the depth chart to rookie Andruw Monasterio. While Monasterio isn’t necessarily performing criminally, his .685 OPS isn’t much of an improvement. There are a few considerations when looking at the signing of Donaldson. First, it’s a minor-league deal, so Donaldson will only be paid a prorated portion of the major-league minimum salary, significantly less than the $23mm he was receiving before. Second, this signing structure means that he won’t be immediately added to the 40-man roster. All in all, this is an experiment by the Brewers. If he can perform well in a couple of games at the AAA level and show signs of being a potential value-add to the team to bolster one of the weaker parts of their roster, then he will likely be an important part of their playoff push. If not, then they don’t lose much anyway so fans should be more curious than upset about this deal. Who knows, maybe he’ll find a way to help bring rain to the city of Milwaukee. -
In another competitive game, some unfortunate luck in the eighth inning allowed the Cubs to take and maintain a one-run lead. Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff - 6.0- IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 96 pitches, 64 strikes (66.7%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Mark Canha (.170), Brandon Woodruff (.066), William Contreras (.066) Bottom 3 WPA: Brice Turang (-.233), Joel Payamps (-.232), Christian Yelich (-.183) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Woodruff Gets Hit Up But Finishes Strong Similar to Corbin Burnes in the second game of the series, Woodruff made a few mistakes in the first inning to give up the only two earned runs of his start. After walking Mike Tauchman and hitting Nico Hoerner with a pitch, Ian Happ hit a one-run double, and Dansby Swanson hit a sacrifice fly to give the Cubs an early 2-0 lead. Aside from a single by Nico Hoerner and yet another hit by pitch against Ian Happ, both of which happened in the third inning, Brandon Woodruff finally warmed up and became unhittable. He retired his final 11 batters in a row before passing the ball to Elvis Peguero. He got a total of 19 swings and misses, seven from his changeup and eight from his four-seam fastball. He also got 20 called strikes, 11 of which were from his four-seam fastball. Brandon Woodruff has an exceptional 2.70 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over 40 innings pitched. Brewers Battle Back Milwaukee could only score a single run in the game's first seven innings. After a single and an error put Christian Yelich into scoring position, William Contreras sent him home with a single of his own. Things started to heat up in the eighth inning after Mark Leiter Jr. was brought in to replace Julian Merryweather. After Carlos Santana hit a foul pop-up to record the second out, Sal Frelick started a rally by hitting a single and stealing second base. Following two walks by Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez to load the bases, Mark Canha got hit by a pitch to send home the tying run. Payamps Has A Tough Eighth After Elvis Peguero had a perfect seventh inning and got three groundouts in a row, Joel Payamps was the next arm to come out of the bullpen. The first batter, Christopher Morel, reached on a fielding error by Willy Adames. Payamps walked the second batter, and a sacrifice bunt moved two Cubs into scoring position. Rowdy Tellez made a great defensive play to get Morel out at the plate. Still, an unfortunate single by Cody Bellinger was deflected off Payamps’ foot in a way that prevented the third out from being made, allowing Mike Tauchmann to score the go-ahead run and Bellinger to reach. Unable to score in the ninth inning, this run would allow the Cubs to win the series' final game. What’s Next? The Brewers will have an off-day before starting their series against the Philadelphia Phillies, where Freddy Peralta will pitch opposite Zack Wheeler. There is some uncertainty regarding the rotation, given Adrian Houser’s recent placement on the IL, so the starter of the second game is still to be determined. Milwaukee still holds a 3.0 game ahead of the Chicago Cubs and a 6.5-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT B Wilson 0 53 0 0 0 53 Payamps 15 0 16 0 17 48 Peguero 23 0 14 0 7 44 Uribe 0 18 0 17 0 35 Megill 0 32 0 0 0 32 Milner 0 13 18 0 0 31 Williams 14 0 0 0 0 14 Chafin 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tweet Highlight View full article
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Box Score Starting Pitcher: Brandon Woodruff - 6.0- IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 96 pitches, 64 strikes (66.7%) Home Runs: None Top 3 WPA: Mark Canha (.170), Brandon Woodruff (.066), William Contreras (.066) Bottom 3 WPA: Brice Turang (-.233), Joel Payamps (-.232), Christian Yelich (-.183) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Woodruff Gets Hit Up But Finishes Strong Similar to Corbin Burnes in the second game of the series, Woodruff made a few mistakes in the first inning to give up the only two earned runs of his start. After walking Mike Tauchman and hitting Nico Hoerner with a pitch, Ian Happ hit a one-run double, and Dansby Swanson hit a sacrifice fly to give the Cubs an early 2-0 lead. Aside from a single by Nico Hoerner and yet another hit by pitch against Ian Happ, both of which happened in the third inning, Brandon Woodruff finally warmed up and became unhittable. He retired his final 11 batters in a row before passing the ball to Elvis Peguero. He got a total of 19 swings and misses, seven from his changeup and eight from his four-seam fastball. He also got 20 called strikes, 11 of which were from his four-seam fastball. Brandon Woodruff has an exceptional 2.70 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over 40 innings pitched. Brewers Battle Back Milwaukee could only score a single run in the game's first seven innings. After a single and an error put Christian Yelich into scoring position, William Contreras sent him home with a single of his own. Things started to heat up in the eighth inning after Mark Leiter Jr. was brought in to replace Julian Merryweather. After Carlos Santana hit a foul pop-up to record the second out, Sal Frelick started a rally by hitting a single and stealing second base. Following two walks by Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez to load the bases, Mark Canha got hit by a pitch to send home the tying run. Payamps Has A Tough Eighth After Elvis Peguero had a perfect seventh inning and got three groundouts in a row, Joel Payamps was the next arm to come out of the bullpen. The first batter, Christopher Morel, reached on a fielding error by Willy Adames. Payamps walked the second batter, and a sacrifice bunt moved two Cubs into scoring position. Rowdy Tellez made a great defensive play to get Morel out at the plate. Still, an unfortunate single by Cody Bellinger was deflected off Payamps’ foot in a way that prevented the third out from being made, allowing Mike Tauchmann to score the go-ahead run and Bellinger to reach. Unable to score in the ninth inning, this run would allow the Cubs to win the series' final game. What’s Next? The Brewers will have an off-day before starting their series against the Philadelphia Phillies, where Freddy Peralta will pitch opposite Zack Wheeler. There is some uncertainty regarding the rotation, given Adrian Houser’s recent placement on the IL, so the starter of the second game is still to be determined. Milwaukee still holds a 3.0 game ahead of the Chicago Cubs and a 6.5-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds. Postgame Interviews Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT B Wilson 0 53 0 0 0 53 Payamps 15 0 16 0 17 48 Peguero 23 0 14 0 7 44 Uribe 0 18 0 17 0 35 Megill 0 32 0 0 0 32 Milner 0 13 18 0 0 31 Williams 14 0 0 0 0 14 Chafin 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tweet Highlight
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I'm just gonna say it. I'm not going to hide it anymore. Josh Donaldson is one of my favorite active players.
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