Jason Wang

After missing the vast majority of the 2023 season, he’s now left to fight for his spot in an already crowded outfield picture. How can the team's 2020 first-round pick benefit the Milwaukee Brewers most in 2024? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports Garrett Mitchell was poised to have a great year. He made the Opening Day roster, had his first-ever two-home run game against the Mets, then walked them off the next day. Unfortunately, he damaged the labrum in his left shoulder while sliding into third base in Seattle in mid-April, and required surgery. He returned for a total of 11 plate appearances toward the end of the season but wasn’t able to do anything particularly memorable. Now, the Brewers' depth chart lists him as the fourth-string center fielder, behind Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, and Blake Perkins. In a best-case scenario for Mitchell, Chourio is kept in the minors to begin the season; Frelick is fully converted to a utility infielder; and Perkins struggles early and gives up his spot. More realistically, Mitchell will have to find somewhere else to stand in the outfield. He has spent all of his relatively brief major-league career in center field, but was also able to get in some innings as a corner outfielder in the minors. The Brewers already have a left fielder by the name of Christian Yelich, and despite the hopes of many fans to move him to first base, he’s probably going to stay right where he is. But what about the other corner? Mitchell was primarily a right fielder at UCLA and didn’t become a full-time presence in center until his first season with the Biloxi Shuckers in 2021. In 2022, he spent 17 games in right field before being called up. Furthermore, the depth chart in right field is far less crowded. Currently listed are Frelick, Perkins, and Chris Roller. Mitchell is already ahead of Roller on the organization's priority list, and Frelick moving to the infield part-time leaves a more open door for the full-time spot. Mitchell’s skillset might also be better suited for right. In addition to having top-of-the-line sprint speed, one of the few statistics he was qualified for was arm strength. In 2023, he threw at an average velocity of 89.2 mph, placing him in the top quartile of players. In 2022, he averaged an outstanding 93.5 mph, better than 96% of his major-league peers. With right field being the furthest from third base and home, arm strength is of the utmost importance. We all remember those legendary throws from Ichiro Suzuki and Roberto Clemente, right? Aside from his defensive flexibility, Mitchell is a very capable hitter, or at least a high-ceiling one. Again, it’s a small major-league sample size, but over his 141 career plate appearances, he’s slashed .278/.343/.452 and posted a cumulative OPS+ of 120. In his final season in Triple A, he hit for a .901 OPS over 85 plate appearances. When healthy, he has the potential to step up in big moments and could still be a plus bat in an offense that needs all the help it can get. If nothing else, slot him in at DH and give poor old William Contreras a few more much-needed days off. At the end of the day, Mitchell is a slightly above-average player with five more years of team control left on his contract. There are a ton of questions about the Brewers roster and how they plan to set their lineup (they still have three catchers on the depth chart, and reportedly plan to keep it that way), and if Mitchell isn’t one of the names the team decides to keep, he’ll at the very least be a valuable trade piece to a team that needs a solid guy to hold things down in center field. What do you hope to see from Mitchell in 2024? How would you go about getting him the playing time to prove whether or not he can rake consistently in MLB? Start the discussion below. View full article

Wonder what the trade value for Matt Bush would've been anyway if he hadn't been DFA. Not sure how much demand there is for a 38-year old pitcher with brutal numbers, albeit over a small sample size. He pitched alright in the Rangers minor league system but he's not getting any younger.

Bryse Wilson was one of the most underrated relievers in baseball last year. Will we see him repeat his success, or has he flown too close to the sun? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports Bryse Wilson wasn’t supposed to be anything close to an elite bullpen arm. Originally being groomed as a starter, he pitched to a gruesome 5.52 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 115 ⅔ innings with the Pirates in 2022. After he was designated for assignment and traded to the Brewers in exchange for cash considerations, the expectations around him were pretty low. There were those who doubted he would even make the team. Few, if any, could’ve foreseen what he would end up doing in 2023. The Brewers moved him to the bullpen and he served as a long reliever, pitching as many as four innings in a game (against the Padres on August 27) and frequently getting to two or three. He cut his ERA and WHIP down to 2.58 and 1.07, respectively--excellent numbers and big improvements over what he had been doing in Pittsburgh. So, what changed? Other than the obvious shift in responsibility from starter to reliever, Wilson drastically increased the usage of his cutter. He went from throwing 72 cutters in 2022 to throwing 401 of them in 2023, and it ended up being his best pitch. He also made some upgrades to his four-seam fastball, which went from a run value of -10 in 2022 to 5 in 2023. To make room for these arsenal adjustments, he essentially phased out his changeup and totally got rid of his slider. Interestingly, his cumulative chase, whiff, and strikeout rates all remained in the bottom quartile of qualified pitchers, so he didn't suddenly start blowing guys away at the plate. In fact, his cutter had a measly strikeout rate of just 13.6%, despite accumulating a run value of 8 and being his best pitch. Instead, he was able to generate soft contact on his cutter consistently enough for it to be effective without insane velocity or spin. Here is the result of every Wilson cutter batters put into play last year: While I’m no Driveline/Tread Athletics employee, I wanted to speculate about some of the intrinsic properties that made the pitch the way that it was. First, I took a look at the placement of his cutter within the strike zone. Here’s the heat map for all of the cutters he threw in 2023: With this placement, he jams lefties and goes away from righties' barrels. It’s still in the zone, so he wasn’t giving up a ton of walks on the pitch ,but it was very rarely middle-middle. What Wilson lacks in velocity, he makes up for in command, allowing this approach to work. To justify this hypothesis and also to get out of spending time with my family, I separated the heat map between cutters that resulted in outs (left) vs those that resulted in hits (right). What these pictures illustrate is that when he hit his preferred spots, things usually went his way. Times in which he left the cutter a little too close to the heart of the zone often ended up biting him in the butt. The story is much the same with his four-seam fastball, with his strikeout rates holding steady year-over-year but his quality of contact improving drastically. But back to the original question: can we expect this to happen again next year? Alas, the answer seems to be “not likely.” Statcast had his 2023 xERA marked at 3.98, and FanGraphs is projecting his ERA to jump up to a whopping 4.45 in 2024. Both of these make sense, given that his FIP was a gnarly 4.13, indicating a lucky streak to his performance. While he doesn't give up many walks or home runs, his strikeout rate is simply too low to push his FIP any lower. Nor can we be sure the home-run prevention will stick around in 2024. Furthermore, Wilson's pitch-to-contact style undoubtedly benefited from one of the best defenses in baseball. If that aspect of the team sees regression this year--as great team defenses nearly always do--it could further ding him. Brewers fans should know better than anyone not to underestimate the Willy Wonka-like magic that happens within the team’s pitching development program, but I wouldn’t bet the house on Wilson repeating his spectacular 2023 just yet. Do you think Wilson will be back in the bullpen, come Opening Day? Can he have another season as valuable as last year? Let us know below. View full article

This franchise has now gotten rid of Kolten Wong (5'7) and Clayton Andrews (5'6). I don't know why, it just doesn't seem like the team wants to be a serious contender. Everyone knows short kings make the best ballplayers. Furthermore, this Gary Sanchez fella is a whopping 6'2, a statistical anomaly by all means. Just another boneheaded move by the front office!

With Corbin Burnes being sent off to the Orioles, Willy Adames is now the most valuable trade piece on the team. Could a return to the Sunshine State be best for both parties? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports To many fans, trading Willy Adames follows a similar logic to wanting to trade Corbin Burnes. With the team unlikely to increase their spending, retaining Adames in free agency while investing in other talent probably won’t be possible. Furthermore, it may be difficult to justify a longer deal after his offensive slowdown last year. He slashed .217/.310/.407 over 638 plate appearances, equivalent to a 95 OPS+. Nonetheless, his glove was immaculate, and he still has elite barrel and walk rates, so he’ll be able to provide value to many teams, including the Marlins. They have a pretty questionable shortstop situation, currently slated to start Jon Berti with Vidal Bruján waiting in the wings. Berti was an effective utility piece in 2023, but his ability to play shortstop daily is unproven. Bruján spent most of the year in AAA and posted a decent .839 OPS but has struggled when called up to the major leagues, accumulating -1.6 rWAR over 272 plate appearances in the past three years. They have a few shortstop prospects in the pipeline, namely Jacob Amaya and Yiddi Cappe, but they're a few years away from the show. If they want to return to the postseason sooner rather than later, they’ll need someone more proven, especially in a very competitive NL East division. If it’s clear that the Marlins would appreciate additional help at shortstop, the question then becomes, what can they offer the Brewers? With the prospect package received in exchange for Burnes, it’s clear that Milwaukee is okay with deferring success for a few years. In its current form, the team is undoubtedly less competitive but has a brighter future than before. One imminent concern might be at first base. The Rhys Hoskins deal is only for two years and includes a mutual option and an opt-out after the first year, which doesn’t seem like a concrete, long-term solution. Tyler Black is expected to spend most of his time at third base, and the team’s only other top first base prospect is Wes Clarke, last seen in AA. On the other hand, Marlins prospect Jacob Berry is ranked #4 by MLB.com and has an ETA of 2025, meaning he could be ready soon after Hoskins's potential departure. He’s well-rounded and doesn’t break the radar in any area, but he received a 55-grade hit tool from scouts. His AA slash line of .248/.301/.443 and overall performance in the minors hasn’t lived up to the hype, but at 22 years old, he still has a few more years to figure things out. It could also be useful to have another starting pitcher around these parts. After all, the Brewers lost their two best starters in one offseason. Robert Gasser will probably make his major league debut in 2024. Jacob Misiorowski and Carlos Rodriguez aren’t too far off, but it’d be great to get some more major-league-ready manpower. Lefty Trevor Rogers has seen mixed results as a starter but had an outstanding peak in 2021, posting a 2.64 ERA over 133 innings and placing second for NL Rookie of the Year. Since then, he has struggled quite a bit and was sidelined for most of 2023 with a bicep strain, but the juice is still there. With the prowess of the Brewers' pitching staff, it might take a change of scenery for him to reach those same heights again, and he might not have a place in a talented Marlins rotation. Ely Sussman wrote a great piece touching on why Adames would be a great fit with the fish. It’s an excellent read if you want to know more about why the Marlins would need his services or are curious to see the trade package that he proposed. Do you still think the Brewers will trade Adames before Opening Day? If he is traded to the Marlins, what return would leave you satisfied? View full article

Before coming over from the Braves, he was seen as an offense-focused catcher with some concerning defensive liabilities. That all changed last season. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports In 2022, William Contreras made his first career All-Star appearance, but wasn’t quite a complete player. Despite having one of the best bats at his position and posting an OPS of .860, his catching metrics were lackluster at best. He struggled with practically every aspect, landing in the bottom quartile for framing, runners caught stealing, and blocking. After arriving in Milwaukee in a whirlwind three-team trade, many expected his offensive prowess to contribute positively to the team’s lineup, but there were concerns about his skills behind the plate. With a whole year of data now in the books, there are definitely some promising signs that he's becoming one of the most well-rounded catchers in baseball. In his final year with the Braves, Contreras had -3 framing runs, worse than 80% of qualified catchers. In 2023, he jumped up to a whopping seven framing runs, the fifth-most in baseball. To see what changed, we can start by looking at the difference in the amount of strikes looking above average between the two years. In 2022, we can see that he struggled with framing nearly everywhere, outside of a few hot spots in the upper part of the strike zone. He was notoriously bad at the bottom of the zone, potentially limiting his ability to frame any painted breaking balls or sinkers. His heat map in 2023 shows the results of the outstanding work done by the Brewers catching lab. He improved immensely, almost flip-flopping his areas of strength within the strike zone. Along with the talented arms on the Brewers pitching staff, he lowered the knees of opposing batters and stole most of his runs in that area. This worked well with the existing arsenals of his pitching pals, with many Milwaukee pitchers depending on crafty breaking balls over blow-your-doors-off velocity. This is a graphic of all of his 2023 called strikes that were outside of the zone, categorized by pitch type. While the different types of fastballs dot all four sides, you can see the other 124 non-fastball pitches gather at the bottom. Here are a few video examples of how smooth this guy can be while absolutely robbing hitters in the lower half of the zone. In total, Contreras stole an extra 323 strikes for his team, which seems like it should be some sort of white-collar crime, but it isn’t. For now, it’s just an impressive illustration of how good his glove was last season. If he keeps this up, Brewers fans should pray for the delay of the robo-umps for as long as possible. His blocking skills also improved immensely, jumping from -3 blocks above average in 2022 to 8 blocks above average in 2023. If you’re interested in learning more about what made this possible, Esteban Rivera of FanGraphs had some excellent insight into some tangible changes Contreras made to correct these issues. One of the key adjustments he made was using his glove to catch right-handed breaking balls and offspeed pitches instead of using his chest, and Rivera includes some great video examples. Contreras did it all last year. He won a Silver Slugger for his offensive efforts, beating out elite competition that included Willson Contreras and Will Smith, and if it weren’t for the stupendous skills of Patrick Bailey and Gabriel Moreno, he likely would’ve been at least a finalist for the Gold Glove, as well. With several more years of team control left on his contract and no signs of slowing down, the crazy deal that brought him to the great state of Wisconsin may pay off even more than expected. Do you expect Contreras to hold onto his framing gains in 2024? What kind of long-term contract would you be willing to offer him right now? Sound off on the Brewers' best player. Research assistance provided by TruMedia. View full article

This year will be so key for Peralta specifically. Replacing Woodruff's spot in the rotation is no easy task and he's still chasing that magical 2021 year. I think the step back in effectiveness on his breaking stuff is holding him back, as his slider and curveball were instrumental to his success in 2021, the latter having a wOBA of just .178, whereas it jumped up to .295 in 2023. The thing with his slider is that when it's working, it's unhittable. Like, what the hell is this? Ashby is a curious case, we'll see how he is after missing all of 2023 but his xERA of 3.75 vs his actual ERA of 4.44 in 2022 might indicate that he's better than his stats show. Also his insane ground-ball rate is hopefully going to synergize perfectly with the Brewers infield defense. Hader, Williams, Uribe. Lord do the Brewers know how to foster outstanding high-leverage relievers, at least in the past few years. If Uribe continues down this path, could open the door to trading Williams to get a big bat, someone like a Cole Tucker or Luis Guillorme.

Baseball is a game of numbers, so what do those numbers say about how the lineup might perform next season? Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports After making their first major addition of the offseason and signing Rhys Hoskins to a two-year, $34 million deal, I was curious to see how an impact bat could change things quantitatively. Last year, the Brewers' offense left much to be desired and was among the weakest in MLB. In 2023, the Brewers slashed a cumulative .240/.319/.385 for an OPS of .704, placing them 23rd among all teams. To see how things would change heading into 2024, I pulled the FanGraphs projections for every player on the depth chart (yes, even Chris Roller, who has a grand total of seven projected plate appearances). I calculated the team’s weighted average slash line. The results were pretty interesting. Player PA HR AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA wRC+ WAR Willy Adames 651 27 0.237 0.319 0.436 0.755 0.325 103 3.1 Christian Yelich 651 20 0.262 0.363 0.431 0.794 0.345 116 2.7 Rhys Hoskins 630 31 0.240 0.332 0.467 0.799 0.343 115 1.9 William Contreras 602 23 0.273 0.351 0.465 0.816 0.351 120 4.2 Sal Frelick 567 11 0.265 0.342 0.394 0.736 0.324 102 2.0 Jackson Chourio 560 18 0.253 0.304 0.416 0.720 0.310 93 1.5 Brice Turang 546 11 0.246 0.320 0.371 0.691 0.304 88 1.4 Andruw Monasterio 329 5 0.244 0.329 0.353 0.682 0.304 89 0.7 Garrett Mitchell 322 8 0.236 0.311 0.382 0.693 0.304 88 0.7 Jake Bauers 210 8 0.215 0.307 0.390 0.697 0.305 90 0.0 Owen Miller 210 4 0.250 0.306 0.377 0.683 0.298 85 0.1 Eric Haase 141 5 0.218 0.276 0.380 0.656 0.283 75 0.1 Blake Perkins 63 1 0.217 0.311 0.354 0.665 0.295 83 0.1 Oliver Dunn 42 1 0.210 0.307 0.359 0.666 0.294 82 0.1 Jahmai Jones 28 1 0.216 0.314 0.344 0.658 0.294 82 0.0 Vinny Capra 28 0 0.242 0.328 0.351 0.679 0.303 88 0.0 Chris Roller 7 0 0.207 0.305 0.335 0.287 0.287 77 0.0 Team Weighted Average 0.248 0.328 0.414 0.741 0.322 101 The team’s slash line improves to .248/.328/.414, with a notable increase in slugging percentage over the previous year. The estimated weighted average OPS of .741 would have placed them at 14th in offense in 2023, right between the Orioles/Padres/Cardinals (all tied for 13th) and the Mariners. Overall, the team is projected to have a league-average wRC+, but with the strength of the pitching staff, it might still be enough to claim the NL Central once more. This increase is primarily from projected improvements from Willy Adames, who had a relatively disappointing .717 OPS in 2023 and increased production at first base from Hoskins. Last year, the Brewers had the third-worst offensive production out of their first basemen, who cumulatively posted a .681 OPS. Hoskins isn’t expected to return to his full form immediately after a year-long, injury-induced layoff. Still, his 115 wRC+ is undoubtedly better than whatever the team had last year before trading for Carlos Santana. There’s also a big projected improvement from Brice Turang, who posted a .585 OPS and 60 wRC+ over 448 plate appearances in 2023. If he can get up to a .691 OPS as projected, it’ll make his excellent glove stand out even more without the offensive tradeoff. In fact, for all players who will be seen as consistent starters, there isn’t much of a gaping hole within the projections. ZiPS sees Andruw Monasterio splitting time with Tyler Black and Owen Miller at the hot corner, which, along with his weak hitting splits against right-handed pitching, explains the decrease in projected playtime. Black is not yet listed on the depth chart, so I didn't include him in these calculations, but if you're curious, he's projected to slash .239/.342/.395 over 322 plate appearances. Garrett Mitchell will also see decreased playtime due to Jackson Chourio joining the outfield mix. Speaking of Chourio, he’s projected to get a slow start to his career with a slightly below-average wRC+, but at just 19 years old, don’t fret. He’ll probably start posting and hitting solid numbers by the time he can legally drink his first Wisconsin Old Fashioned. Projections should always be taken with a grain of salt, but it seems like Milwaukee is in good shape heading into 2024. The Rhys Hoskins signing addressed a major gap in the lineup, and with a bumper crop of prospects ready to bring their talents to the next level, they might be legitimate contenders for the next several years. What do you think of the projections? Which players do you think are most likely to deviate from their estimates? View full article

but brock, how else are we going to keep the rich, rich?

FanGraphs interestingly has Hoskins projected at 115 wRC+ over 630 plate appearances, so not a hugely impactful bat but still an improvement over Jake Bauers I guess. I think the Brewers need another impact signing if they want to be more serious contenders. While they're probably favored to be the top dog in the Central, the rest of the NL is just so stacked that making it through the gauntlet to reach the WS or even the Pennant is going to be tough with the roster as is.

jake is that a picture of you in the thumbnail?

Well, it looks like the only thing that aged worse than my take of "Rhys Hoskins is too expensive" is the Anthony Rendon contract.

Agree. Individual rankings tend to seemingly underrate a lot of guys since not everyone can be #1. For example, Max Clark was clearly underrated at just #24 when he clearly has an 80-grade drip tool.

After listening to their explanation of the rankings, it did seem very subjective. Seidler himself said that he spent several months trying to put Langford at the top of the list but just couldn't find enough support for it. I think it's just good fun and if i I remember correctly, the authors acknowledged that they may be low on Chourio, especially given the size of his contract.

In their recent list of the top 101 prospects in baseball (published Tuesday), Baseball Prospectus placed Jackson Chourio at No. 6. Is this too low, too high, or just right? Image courtesy of © Stephanie Amador / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK Jackson Chourio has been the crown jewel of the Brewers system almost since he signed as an international free agent in 2021. After performing exceptionally up through Double A, he signed a landmark eight-year, $82 million contract that set a new record for the largest ever given to a player yet to make his major-league debut. If he was ranked the sixth-best prospect in the game despite all of the hype, who were the five players above him? It’s comes as no surprise that BP’s top-ranked prospect was Jackson Holliday, Baltimore’s first overall pick from the 2022 draft. He rocketed through the minor leagues last year, going from Single A to Triple A within the span of just one season and posting impressive numbers the entire way. He’s also ranked first by MLB.com, and comes from an impressive baseball family, so it’s not a controversial take to say that he deserved the top spot. No. 2 man Wyatt Langford has yet to receive his call-up, but that’s not to say that he won't soon be ready, as he posted a cumulative 1.157 OPS across four levels of the minor leagues in 2023--all in an incredibly short amount of time, after being drafted out of Florida in July. In the Heat Check Prospect Podcast, BP senior prospect writer Jarrett Seidler even mentioned possibly bumping Langford to the top spot over Holliday. He praised Langford for having some of the best high-end exit velocities, great contact ability, and decent swing decisions, and only voiced concern over his questionable defense. It was noted that Langford is considered by some to be a plus center fielder, while others are already relegating him to be a career designated hitter. Third-ranked Junior Caminero, from the Rays organization, was another potential dark-horse candidate to be ranked as the top prospect, as Seidler discussed his impressive TrackMan batted-ball data, having high-end exit velocities even slightly better than Langford. Seidler even went so far as to say that Jackson Chourio doesn’t do anything demonstrably better than Caminero. BP lead prospect writer Jeffrey Paternostro agreed that while Holliday is still currently the best prospect, Caminero has the highest ceiling of all 101 prospects on the list. When it comes to Chourio, Seidler noted that while he did make big improvements at the plate, namely hitting for contact and hitting for power, he still has plate discipline issues and has produced offensive numbers that are a level below the likes of the aforementioned Holliday, Langford and Caminero. Despite this, Seidler personally felt that Chourio was deserving of the fourth spot, putting him above Evan Carter of the Rangers and Dylan Crews of the Nationals. Chourio spent the vast majority of 2023 in Double A and slashed .280/.336/.467. Those are respectable numbers, but nothing to write home about. His speed remains one of his top tools, as he stole 43 bases and played excellent, rangy defense, but his bat still leaves a bit to be desired. Nonetheless, he’s still just 19 years old and a No. 6 ranking isn’t bad, especially given the stiff competition at the top. It might be lower than some fans were expecting, but it’s still higher than notable prospects Paul Skenes (9), Ethan Salas (12), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (20). Chourio has his best years ahead of him and it will be exciting to see him grow into his role as the new face of the Brewers franchise. For $82 million before he's even taken the field, you want a superstar, but ranking sixth in this particular collection of top prospects--with an unusual mix, among them, of upside and high-level track record--is less of a knock than it might seem to be, or than it would be in another year. How do you feel about BP’s ranking of Chourio? Should he have been higher or lower? View full article

How do Dan Szymborski and his trusty computer program estimate the Brewers will perform in 2024? Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports ZiPS is one of the most comprehensive projection systems in baseball, and has been around for 20 years for good reason. Unlike your uncle at Thanksgiving, ZiPS takes in an immense amount of quantitative information from a window of several years, weighing the data from more recent years more heavily than older data. Using this data, it seeks to estimate a given player’s baseline expectation and where they might be in the near future. Here’s how it thinks each part of the Milwaukee Brewers team (as it currently stands) will do in the upcoming season. Lineup ZiPS paints a rather dismal picture for the Crew's crop of position players, and perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising. In 2023, Milwaukee was 23rd in batting average, 25th in slugging percentage, and 23rd in OPS. They were also 24th in wRC+, at just 92, the lowest out of any team that made the postseason (the Marlins were 20th with a wRC+ of 94). Since then, the Brewers haven’t signed or traded for any players one might deem to be an impact bat (Eric Haase and his 45 OPS+ may prove me wrong) and have lost two of their best hitters. Mark Canha and Carlos Santana were third and fourth on the team in terms of OPS+, at 120 and 109, respectively, with Canha going to the Tigers and Santana still an unsigned free agent. The only position players ZiPS projects will be worth more than 2.0 fWAR are William Contreras and, interestingly enough, Willy Adames. It makes sense for Contreras to be where he’s at, and a projected fWAR of 3.1 seems conservative, given his excellent 2023 mark of 5.4 fWAR. Adames is pegged to slash .250/.328/.465, an improvement over last year’s slash line of .217/.310/.407. He did have the lowest wRC+ of his career, at 94, and was potentially hampered by the concussion he suffered in late May, so maybe ZiPS is correct to be optimistic about his future. Another interesting character is Jackson Chourio. Szymborski points out that he has immense long-term value but is projected to take some time to warm up before he reaches his final form. He and the other outfielders, Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich, are all around the 1.7 fWAR mark, with Yelich being the only one with a forecasted OPS+ north of 100. Unsurprisingly, first base and DH are the weakest positions on the field, due to Jake Bauers currently occupying the top spot on the depth chart and DH responsibilities being split among a few outfielders and a catcher. There are still a few bats available on the open market, but many of the needle-movers (like Rhys Hoskins, JD Martinez and Jorge Soler) may be too expensive for the Brewers’ tight purse strings. Rotation As much as ZiPS dislikes the lineup, it loves the rotation. Corbin Burnes is projected to be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball despite a slightly diminished performance in 2023, and is expected to post an ERA of 3.32 and an fWAR of 3.9. Freddy Peralta has similarly strong projections, at a 3.86 ERA and an fWAR of 2.6. Wade Miley and Colin Rea are expected to be consistent starters in the third and fourth spots in the rotation, with the fifth spot probably being split between Robert Gasser, Aaron Ashby, and Joe Ross. With the exception of Ross, each name on the starting rotation has the potential to reach an ERA below 4.00 in the 80th-percentile situation, which should speak to the raw upside of the current arms on the Brewers staff. ZiPS is also enthusiastic about what Coleman Crow can do. Assuming a smooth return from his recent Tommy John surgery, he's an intriguing piece of the puzzle. Since Milwaukee gave up Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor to get him, they hope he’ll pay off in the long run, but is already slated for a 4.26 ERA and 1.3 fWAR. Bullpen ZiPS is projecting four relievers to have an ERA under four: Devin Williams (3.00), Abner Uribe (3.74), Hoby Milner (3.88), and Trevor Megill (3.47). Joel Payamps is close, at 4.02, and Bryse Wilson’s slightly higher estimated 4.34 ERA is partially due to the system assuming a few starts/longer relief appearances out of him. It’s still one of the best and most versatile relief units in the sport of baseball and an essential component of the Brewers’ pitching- and defense-focused strategy. Overall, the team is projected to accumulate a win total somewhere in the mid-80s, which may not be enough to seize the top spot in the division given the other moves made by their rivals. However, there is still a bit of offseason left for the team to make some big moves, and who knows? Maybe there are still some positive surprises and breakout seasons to be had. What jumped out to you in the Brewers' ZiPS projections? Who do you think will outperform their forecasts, and who's due to underwhelm? Join the conversation! View full article