Jason Wang

In an offseason filled with intrigue, marquee transactions, and mistaken private flights, one team has yet to significantly move the needle in a positive direction. With things as they are, will the Brewers even be serious contenders in 2024? Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports It's been a strange offseason, so far. On that much we can all agree. Our question here is, should we be worried about that? For a conciliatory and hopeful take, check out Ryan Pollak's piece earlier this morning. Me? I'm less sanguine. Milwaukee hasn’t been entirely silent, but the few major-league roster additions the organization has made have been: Signing Colin Rea to a one-year deal Bringing back Wade Miley on a one-year deal Signing free agent RHP Joe Ross, who hasn’t pitched in MLB since 2021 and is coming off of his second Tommy John surgery Acquiring LHP Bryan Hudson from the Dodgers in exchange for LHP Justin Chambers, an 18-year old prospect drafted in 2023, and a player to be named later or cash Sure, they also gave Jackson Chourio a monumental extension and added him and Bradley Blalock to the 40-man roster, but compared to what their division rivals in Cincinnati and St. Louis have done, the lack of subsequent moves is concerning. Furthermore, Hudson took the 39th spot on the 40-man roster, so the team doesn’t have much room for new faces without having to say goodbye to some old ones. The Brewers were never going to be mentioned as being “strongly interested” in the premium names like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, or Jung Hoo Lee, but there was hope that they’d be in the running for some of the cheaper (yet still effective) bats like Mitch Garver or Jeimer Candelario. In reality, they’ve yet to acquire a single position player at the major-league level, let alone an impactful one. For a team who’s won their division three times in the past six years and come in second twice in the same span, one could make the argument that they don’t need to get any better to remain ahead of their peers. Unfortunately, the other teams have seemingly had enough of being underdogs. The Reds signed Jeimer Candelario, Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas, and Emilio Pagan The Pirates signed Martin Perez and Rowdy Tellez, traded for Marco Gonzales, and re-signed Andrew McCutchen The Cardinals signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn After being one of the final few in the Shohei Sweepstakes, the Cubs ultimately struck out and are yet to sign any free agents, but are reportedly pursuing Shota Imanaga and Matt Chapman With a nine-game lead over their closest division competitor in 2023, Milwaukee is a step ahead of the rest, even with these moves. However, with the losses of Brandon Woodruff, Mark Canha, and Carlos Santana, their competition hasn't just gotten better. The Crew themselves have arguably gotten worse. The Brewers are allegedly in hot pursuit of bringing back Santana, but if a nearly-38-year-old first baseman is poised to be the biggest signing of the winter, it’s probably not going to be a great year. Additionally, it still wouldn’t be an improvement over last season’s roster. As many trick-or-treaters know, most of the good stuff is already taken if you get started too late. While there are still a handful of notable names available (Marcus Stroman, Joc Pederson, Blake Snell, and Cody Bellinger, to name a few), the Brewers’ front office doesn’t seem to be interested in any of them. They really don’t seem interested in anyone under the age of 37. Maybe they end up trading Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams, and/or Willy Adames, but there hasn’t been much active discussion about those moves, either. If the team starts the 2024 season with their roster as is, they may not be the kings of the NL Central much longer. The troubling thing, here, is that the team hasn't committed to a direction at all. Trading Houser and Taylor seemed to suggest one direction; acquiring Hudson at the cost of a 2023 draftee seems to suggest another. It's very hard to assign a coherent narrative to this team's winter. They haven't gotten cheaper. They haven't maximized future value. They also haven't gotten better or maximized present value. They seem adrift, and given the ticking clock on Burnes and Adames, that's terrifying. Do you think the Brewers have done enough to be competitive postseason competitors next year? What are some other names the team can realistically pursue? View full article

Hideo Nomo is an important, sometimes misunderstood figure in baseball history. While he’s most often remembered for his time with the Dodgers, he also had a productive year with an equally fun and even more popular team: the Milwaukee Brewers. Image courtesy of © Milwaukee Journal Sentinel files, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Imagn Content Services, LLC With Shohei Ohtani’s record-breaking free agency contract still the hottest piece of discussion within the baseball zeitgeist, it can be easy to forget the man who opened the door for future Japanese MLB players. Let's defy that temptation. Hideo Nomo signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1995, becoming the first Japanese-born player to pursue a long-term career in American baseball. Known for his vexing “tornado-style” delivery, he pitched spectacularly in his rookie year, posting a 2.54 ERA over 191 ⅓ innings, winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award, and placing fourth in Cy Young voting. He also pitched four complete games and three shutouts, led the NL in strikeouts (236) and strikeouts per nine innings (11.1), and led MLB in hits per nine frames with 5.8. He continued his success in 1996, again placing fourth in Cy Young voting and somehow throwing a no-hitter in Coors Field. He's still the only player to do so. As batters gradually became familiar with his funky delivery, his performance gradually declined. In 1997 and 1998, his performance slipped to below-average, and seeing their window of opportunity closing, the Dodgers traded him to the Mets--who released him on the eve of Opening Day, 1999. Nomo signed with the Cubs just a few days later, but they didn't elect to bring him up. Instead, they cut him loose again, this time in late April. As a last-ditch effort to resurrect what was an immensely promising career just a few years earlier, Nomo signed with the Brewers. While many believed that he was absolutely done, Milwaukee didn’t really have much to lose. Long-time fans know that the Brewers of the late 1990s and early 2000s were far from World Series contenders. They were actually experiencing a years-long playoff drought. That ‘99 team was definitely one of the worst teams in MLB, posting a 74-87 record and placing dead last in their division. In fact, an LA Times article published on April 30, 1999 said, "The pitching-thin Brewers are believed to be the only team willing to guarantee Nomo big league starts." Despite his diminished abilities, he was actually the fifth-most valuable member of the team by rWAR, accumulating 2.4. He recorded a 4.54 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 176 ⅓ innings, which wasn’t spectacular by any means, but he did manage to record his 1,000th career strikeout while a Brewer, becoming the third-fastest player to do so. This, alone, earns him his spot on the Brewers Mount Rushmore, alongside fellow legends Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and Nyjer Morgan Tony Plush. While his lone season with the team was productive, he wasn’t able to re-sign due to contract disputes, a recurring theme throughout his career. Nonetheless, he continued to make history, throwing his second no-hitter while on the Boston Red Sox in 2001, becoming the fourth man to throw a no-hitter in both leagues. He also led the AL in strikeouts and strikeout rate that year, the first time he had done so since his rookie showing. Nomo’s decision to leave home and bring his novel flavor of Japanese baseball would inspire future superstars like Ichiro Suzuki, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Hideki Matsui to follow a similar path, each leaving their own unique marks on the sport. While you’d be hard pressed to find people that own his jersey or even remember his time with the Brew Crew, it’s groovy to think that the Brewers had such an important figure on their team, one whose impact is still felt today. Oh yeah, he also hit an absolute moonshot against the Brewers one time, so maybe he doesn't belong on the Mount Rushmore. View full article

Flexen is an interesting callout. He has struggled a lot over the past two years and even though he came up as a starter, I don't think he has the stamina to maintain it. Maybe the Brewers could fix him and get him back to his 2021 form? Who knows.

we should just ask josh donaldson which of his former teammates are worth taking.

With Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser now on different paths, how do their replacements shake up the existing starter soup? Assuming he isn’t traded at any point, trusty steed Corbin Burnes will remain the team’s ace, but the second spot in the rotation is where we see our first major change. Following surgery to repair his right shoulder and an estimated recovery timeline of nearly a full year, Brandon Woodruff was non-tendered, and replacing him is no easy task. Over the past seven years and 115 starts with the team, he averaged a 3.10 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, along with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings, to establish his reputation as one of baseball's most intimidating power pitchers. With Woodruff gone, Freddy Peralta has taken the second spot in the rotation. He profiles similarly to Woodruff, averaging 11.6 SO/9 over his six-year career with a particularly potent four-seam fastball. However, he has yet to achieve the same peak performance over an entire season other than his 2021 All-Star campaign. He has also been known to hit extended stretches of inconsistent performance, so depending on him to make up for what was lost in Woodruff’s departure is likely a fool’s errand. Another major change in the rotation is the appearance of a new name, Joe Ross. A right-handed pitcher who most recently spent time in the Giants minor league system, he also spent six years at the major league level with the Nationals, averaging a 4.26 ERA over 76 starts and 443 ⅓ innings. He’s one of the unfortunate few to have received Tommy John surgery twice, once in 2017 and once in 2022. Since his first procedure six years ago, he has pitched more than 100 major-league innings in a season just once and hasn’t been able to crack the 100 ERA+ mark. 2023 was particularly interesting as he only pitched 14 innings across three levels of the minor leagues. He primarily depends on a sinker/slider combination with occasional four-seam fastballs and changeups sprinkled in. With a career SO/9 rate of just 8.2, he has depended more on soft contact, recording a fly-ball rate of 30.7% in his most recent major-league season two years ago. Because there have only been 17 innings of data since then, it’s hard to say what sort of pitcher the team will ultimately end up with. He may even come out of the bullpen in extended relief appearances, filling a void left by Adrian Houser, but he’s currently listed as a starter on the depth chart. He signed a one-year deal after an allegedly comprehensive physical exam to ensure the durability of his right elbow. The contract is for just $1.75 million with no options, so Milwaukee is treating this as a fun experiment more than anything else. At 30, he doesn’t have much flexibility or room for error, but there might be an undervalued arm buried underneath all those grafted tendons. Another new face that hasn’t yet been slotted in is Robert Gasser, the #5 ranked prospect in the Brewers system. Originally estimated to make his big league debut in 2023, it seems a matter of time before he gets called upon to pitch in Milwaukee. Last season, he pitched to a 3.79 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 123 ⅓ innings with the Nashville Sounds. A crafty lefty, his fastball velocity sits in the low-90s, and his sweeper hovers in the low-80s. Wade Miley and Hoby Milner were the only long-term lefties on the team last year and were two of the best performers, which could be a great sign for Gasser. In a predominantly right-handed pitching staff, he could add some much-needed variety. He’s no Randy Johnson and still has much to improve, but he’ll be a useful arm at the back end of the rotation, likely taking up the final spot. A rotation of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Joe Ross, Colin Rea, and Robert Gasser doesn’t seem like the stuff of legend. Still, it’s important to remember that it isn’t too different from what was used last year. With Woodruff and Houser missing significant time due to injury, their replacements of Julio Teheran and Eric Lauer didn’t have Cy Young seasons. However, it was still enough for the team to have the sixth-best ERA for starters at 3.94. It's also important to factor in the organization's ability to develop pitching talent. The return haul for Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor was a man by the name of Coleman Crow. An intriguing prospect with a plus breaking ball package and a shared knack for torn ulnar collateral ligaments, he's likely seen as the next in a long line of excellent Wisconsin pitch lab products. Spencer Michaelis recently did a deeper dive on why the team was willing to give up so much to get him. This could mean better-than-expected results for some newer faces, especially Robert Gasser. As with all things in baseball, we won’t know how things will shake out until they happen. Maybe the team signs or acquires a new starting pitcher through trade before Opening Day. Maybe the team sells off Burnes to bolster its lineup. Either way, Milwaukee has consistently surpassed expectations even after fielding seemingly underwhelming rosters year after year. When faced with budgetless big-market teams like the Dodgers and the Yankees, they persevere. Like New York Mets (sic) legend Yogi Berra once said, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” How would you feel about the team's starting pitcher selection if the season started today? Are there any names that would be realistic additions to this squad? View full article

Yankees would be a super interesting spot and I could definitely see them wanting Burnes, even at a premium. We are talking about a team whose rotation is currently Gerrit Cole Carlos Rodon (about as stable as the Argentine Peso given his current injury situation) Nestor Cortes (not quite an Argentine Peso but still coming back from a major injury) Clarke Schmidt (really should be a reliever, only starts because lack of better options) Yoendrys Gomez (has only pitched at AA) With the Juan Soto acquisition, Verdugo and Grisham getting picked up to add depth to a formerly cringeworthy outfield, and a real effort (albeit a failed one) to seduce Yamamoto, I think the Evil Empire wants to be back so badly. The rotation is the last piece of the puzzle and Burnes would be a great fit, although I'm not really confident in a beardless Burnes.

short king hater smh. But also a very good point. He has been spending the vast majority of his time in the hot corner in the minor leagues anyways so it looks like he's going to end up there when he gets called up.

For sure. Given the moves made by other NL Central teams this year the Brewers are going to have to pursue a little more oomph if they wanna keep up.

The Brewers have merely dipped their toes in the free-agent waters this offseason, and they still have plenty of gaps in their roster. Could one of their first moves be to reunite with an old friend? Image courtesy of © Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports After hitting one of the coldest walk-off celebrations of the entire season, Carlos Santana was traded to the Brewers in exchange for shortstop prospect Jhonny Severino. Over his 226 plate appearances with the team, he slashed .249/.314/.459 for an OPS+ of 109. He was a huge offensive upgrade at first base. The team had tried trotting out all sorts of names, from Rowdy Tellez to Jon Singleton, but weren’t able to find stability until Santana’s arrival. Despite his nickname of “Slamtana,” his 2023 Baseball Savant profile frames him as more of a disciplined player who avoided strikeouts and drew walks, rather than aimed for the moon with every swing. His walk rate (10.5%), chase rate (24%), and strikeout rate (16.8%) were all in the top quartile among qualified hitters. He also managed to accumulate 2 Outs Above Average (OAA) and 11 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)--impressive defensive figures, especially given his age. He lacked the power of his younger days in Cleveland, but he was a welcome addition to a team whose production at first base totaled just a .681 OPS, 28th in MLB and besting only the Royals and the Padres. More importantly, his evenly-matched splits against all pitchers helped compensate for another weakness the team had, which was hitting against righties, against whom they posted a .695 OPS, 26th in MLB. One of the main concerns with signing Santana is his age. He’ll be just a few days shy of 38 years old on Opening Day, and probably won’t be able to maintain above-average offensive production for very long, if at all. From 2010-2019, he averaged an impressive 121 OPS+ and received MVP votes in 2013 and 2019, while from 2020-2023, he averaged an OPS+ of just 94 across four different teams. His 2021 season with the Royals was particularly rough, as his .342 slugging percentage was the lowest for any season in his lengthy career. He managed to be on the wrong side of the Mendoza line with the Mariners in 2022. Nonetheless, the Brewers probably aren’t willing to take a risk on Rhys Hoskins returning to pre-injury form at an estimated cost of $36 million over two years, and there aren’t many younger, more capable free agents available. (Any Joey Gallo fans here?) Furthermore, unless the idea of Jake Bauers, Owen Miller, and Jahmai Jones tag-teaming first base outperforms all reasonable expectations, Santana could, at the very least, be a short-term holdover until more alluring names become available. Within the farm system, Wes Clarke is slated to make his debut sometime in 2024 and had a great showing in Double A last year (and, most recently, in the Arizona Fall League). He could be a longer-term option, but without any experience at Triple A yet, it's hard to tell how his skills will match up against higher-quality opposition. The team’s other top prospects are primarily pitchers and shortstops, with Luke Adams as the only other first-base prospect ranked in the top 30. He’s a ways away from the show, with an ETA of 2026, and has yet to even reach High A. Don’t expect him to fix all of the team’s problems and beat out the super-team Dodgers for the NL pennant in 2024, but a Santana signing could be a cheap and straightforward roster improvement heading into next year. Do you want to see a reunion between the Brewers and Santana? What price tag would make it unpalatable? Let's talk options. View full article

Bryse Wilson arc incoming.

In their latest move, Milwaukee added another piece for the bullpen in exchange for two minor-league prospects. After making his major-league debut with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2019, Taylor Clarke saw his role gradually reduce from a potential starter to a full-time reliever. He was traded to the Kansas City Royals in 2022, where he posted a 4.04 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 49 innings pitched. This season was a bit of a down year and he saw his stats regress to a 5.95 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over 59 innings pitched, so there's definitely room for improvement. The Royals were primarily driven by the need to clear roster space for their newly-acquired starting pitcher, Seth Lugo, which explains why they asked for minor leaguers not on the 40-man roster in return. For their part of the bargain, the Brewers will be shipping right-handed reliever Ryan Brady and utility infielder Cam Devanney over to Kansas City. Brady split time between High A and Double A in 2023, posting a 2.76 ERA over 49 innings with the Timber Rattlers and a 2.57 ERA over 28 innings pitched with the Biloxi Shuckers. Devanney spent all of 2023 in Triple A and slashed a respectable .271/.363/.461 over 390 plate appearances. Clarke, 30, is under contract for $1.25 million for 2024, and is under team control through 2025. He also has a minor-league option year remaining, which will increase his value to the Brewers. They always want to be able to shuttle relievers on the edges of the roster between Triple A and the big leagues, and Clarke will provide that flexibility to their depth chart. What do you make of this deal? Is this kind of consolidation the right way for the Brewers to make use of their organizational depth? Leave a comment and discuss. View full article

just wait...he's next up 😈 those 4 2/3 innings with the Yankees last year were all I needed to see.

For a few wealthy, big-market franchises, the prospect of signing Shohei Ohtani to a long-term deal was a source of unprecedented monomania. For a team like the Milwaukee Brewers, it was more of an obstacle. Now that he’s officially signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers, why should fans expect more Milwaukee moves in the upcoming weeks? For the handful of teams that were both interested and capable of coughing up the record-breaking amount of money he was anticipated to receive, courting Shohei Ohtani was a full-time job. Especially with a relatively lackluster free agent class and Ohtani wanting to move quickly through negotiations, putting all other names on hold made sense. While we saw a few big moves, like the St. Louis Cardinals acquiring a trio of starting pitchers and Juan Soto being traded to the Yankees, most big-name free agents are still available. Marquee players like Marcus Stroman, Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, and Chi Chi Gonzalez have yet to find a home for 2024. Now that Shohei is off the table and everyone can go home to their families, we’ll start to see a separation of priorities. Since most players can’t be valuable pitchers and hitters simultaneously (we can’t ALL be Willians Astudillo), teams will now be pursuing individuals with more specific talents. The San Diego Padres had one of the worst bullpens in baseball last year and are losing Josh Hader, so they might be interested in players like Liam Hendriks or Hector Neris. The Reds had an extremely questionable rotation and could be contenders for Lucas Giolito's or Mike Clevinger's services. I’m sure someone somewhere has some sort of need for Yu-Cheng Chang. Either way, the Brewers will now have a better idea of their competition for their desired free agents. They’ll likely be looking at bolstering their lackluster lineup and replacing Brandon Woodruff’s spot in the rotation as best they can. Ideally, they'd like to find a strikeout-heavy power pitcher to emulate Woodruff's style, so someone like Shota Imanaga could fit the bill. He doesn't have the same velocity as Woodruff but his strikeout rate in NPB was among the best. MLBTradeRumors is projecting him to sign a deal for five-years, $85 million so he might be a little pricey but there's a chance he goes for even lower. Another free agent that could be enticing would be Michael Wacha who lacks exceptional strikeout ability but has been a consistent starter for the past few years in Boston and San Diego. He's projected to sign a three-year, $36 million deal which would fit in with the Brewers' spending tendencies. Furthermore, Milwaukee has several valuable trade pieces in the form of Corbin Burnes and any of their young, talented outfielders such as Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor, or Garrett Mitchell. With teams no longer having to set aside ridiculous amounts of salary space, they’ll have better ideas of available budgets and what they’re willing to offer to acquire some of these pieces. While the Braves had a historically effective offense, their outfield defense was one of the worst in baseball. It could be a complementary trade candidate for some of Milwaukee’s more defensively-minded outfielders. Willy Adames presents another interesting trade piece. After the big shortstop free agent class of 2022, he could be one of the most valuable shortstops for needy teams to acquire. The Los Angeles Dodgers are one team that could be in the market for a new shortstop, depending how Gavin Lux performs upon his return to action after an entire year missed. Their most hated division rivals, the San Francisco Giants, are interestingly in the same boat with Brandon Crawford approaching retirement and Paul DeJong signing with the Chicago White Sox. The Brewers were never serious participants in the Shohei sweepstakes. Unless he had been willing to sign a contract in the realm of $90 million over six years purely for the love of bratwurst and Bob Uecker, they weren’t even on his radar. They’ll likely also be on the bench regarding the signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the second-most hyped free agent of this offseason. However, especially over the past few years, they’ve excelled at building rosters of even talent and finding value for money. Making the playoffs five times in the past six years doesn’t happen by accident, and those runs (especially after 2020) weren’t led by just one man. Instead, they were a result of good management decisions and solid depth. It’d be astonishing if the only move the team made this whole offseason was to acquire Jake Bauers from the New York Yankees. It may not happen immediately, but there’s evidence suggesting that Milwaukee has yet to make their biggest moves heading into 2024. View full article

Woodruff was outstanding last year. That being said, he only pitched for 67 innings out of the total 877 1/3 innings pitched by Milwaukee starters. Over those 877 innings, Brewers starters had a combined 3.94 ERA, 6th in MLB. Woodruff was definitely a part of it but his contribution is probably smaller than most people think. Nonetheless, I think you make a good point and it probably isn't nearly as intimidating on paper without good ole Woody taking up that two-spot.

After declining his mutual option, Miley decided to return to Milwaukee for another year of American Family fun. Is the crafty left-handed veteran what the Brewers need to stay competitive? Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports Wade Miley is not your average pitcher. He has never possessed the 95-mph velocity common in today’s game, but he’s managed to build a solid 13-year major-league career on soft contact. When paired with the exceptional Brewers infield defense in 2023, he posted an ERA of 3.14 and a WHIP of 1.14 over 120 ⅓ innings, the third-best season of his career by ERA+. But how, exactly, does he do it? He’s been using a cutter as his primary weapon since his first stint with the Brewers in 2018, and it was remarkably effective this past year, accumulating a Run Value of 9. (You could call it the pitch that made Wade Miley wily, if you were in a certain mood.) In terms of placement, he likes to keep his cutter close to the glove-side part of the zone, jamming righty hitters and breaking away from lefties. This is a key characteristic, because it averaged a velocity of just 87.1 mph, meaning pitches placed middle-middle would have a good chance of resembling meatballs and hitters would surely let it eat. In fact, a cutter enthusiast whose style is in stark contrast to Miley's would be his teammate, Corbin Burnes. He averages 94.4 mph with his, more than a standard deviation faster than the league average and over seven ticks faster than Miley's. They were more frequently placed in the heart of the zone, which gave him higher whiff and strikeout rates. Nonetheless, by Run Value per 100 pitches, both pitchers actually had evenly matched cutters, a great example of how Miley is able to adapt his pitching style to best suit his current abilities. Miley’s Cutter Placement Burnes's Cutter Placement Another pitch of note for Miley was his four-seam fastball, a pitch that posted an opposing batting average of just .198. This pitch was very much feast-or-famine, as despite a deflated batting average, the opposing slugging was .453, with an even higher expected slugging average of .560. While placed in roughly the same area as his cutter with a little more height, it didn’t seem to have the necessary stuff to generate the same soft contact. Opponents had a hard-hit rate of 47.7%. Finally, while whiffs (18.8%, 5th percentile) and strikeouts (16.1%, eighth percentile) were rare this season, one pitch that put up decent numbers was his slider. While used sparingly and thrown fewer than 100 times, it had a whiff rate of 35.7% and a strikeout rate of 30.8%. It also had the highest put-away rate in his arsenal, twice as high as his cutter. When looking at his Savant page, one can see that he was not only good at limiting damage in 2023, but one of the best. His hard-hit rate of 31.3% was in the top 7 percent of the league, and his average exit velocity of 87.3 mph and ground-ball rate of 47.4% were both in the top quartile for those respective stats. If you’re wondering how a guy who tops out at 90 mph can have an ERA+ of 137, that’s how. But can Miley repeat this success? A key consideration is that Miley’s xERA of 4.33 was significantly higher than his actual ERA. This is largely due to the fact that he missed so few bats, and that (therefore) he was partially dependent on his infield for his success. While FIP is a woefully incomplete evaluative tool for pitchers who don't chase strikeouts, it’s also worth noting that his 4.69 was higher than in any full season since 2017, in which he pitched to a 5.61 ERA. This shouldn’t matter too much as of now, since the Brewers haven’t made any monumental defensive subtractions from their infield, but in the event that players like Willy Adames or Brice Turang are replaced by more offense-focused players, Miley could see a drastic decline in his stats. Since he won't be able to hit the local Planet Fitness and tack on an extra 10 mph of juice to every pitch this offseason, he’ll have to find a way to make this soft-contact approach work--or suffer the consequences. Miley’s decision to opt out of his $10-million mutual option only to re-sign with the team for $7 million and yet another mutual option in 2025 was a curious one. However, his new deal does include $2.5 million in innings-based incentives and the option in 2025 will be for $12 million with a $1.5 million buyout, so maybe he’s playing the long game. There is also a possibility that, given the vast amount of free-agent starting pitching talent on today’s market, Miley’s venture into the open market didn’t go as well as he had anticipated. With the whole gang returning from last year (with the exceptions of Brandon Woodruff and Julio Teheran), it seems as though the Brewers will once again have one of the more imposing starting rotations in the league. But with division rivals like the St. Louis Cardinals making big moves in free agency to acquire Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, and Sonny Gray, Milwaukee might need more than just Miley to stay competitive. His services will be much-appreciated, unless we see a regression toward his expected stats in 2023, but without a dominant power pitcher like last season’s version of Woodruff, the team might be left at home come the postseason. What do you think? Can Miley and his cutter keep slicing through lineups as he rounds the bend between 35 and 40? Let's chop it up. View full article

I think in a vacuum, yes. However, I think given the team's history of choosing to have a more even payroll and the existing demand for the few hitters available on the market today, I'd be surprised if the Brewers were able to outcompete some of the richer teams/bigger markets for this talent.

how could you say no to this comforting smile

As we speak, the man atop the Brewers' first-base depth chart is a journeyman whom they plucked from a team ready to non-tender him, who has never taken more than 423 plate appearances in an MLB season. That's gotta change, right? Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Santana has returned to free agency, and the Brewers non-tendered Rowdy Tellez last month. The only viable first baseman they have, for now, is Jake Bauers, whom they acquired from the Yankees just ahead of the non-tender deadline. Here are three guys who would be an upgrade from there, at a low cost. Mike Ford Ford had a strong start to his major-league career in 2019, when he was called up by the New York Yankees and posted a .909 OPS over 163 plate appearances. He failed to recapture that magic thereafter, and bounced around to several organizations before ending up in Seattle for a third stint in 2023. This return to the Pacific Northwest marked his second-best season, and he finished with a slash line of .228/.323/.475 over 251 plate appearances. Without Ford, DH would’ve stood for “disappointing hitter” and the Mariners would’ve had to rely on the likes of A.J. Pollock or Cooper Hummel. Despite his contributions to the team, he was designated for assignment to make room for outfield prospect Zach DeLoach. Although recently used primarily as a designated hitter, Ford has spent most of his career at first base and played 37 games there in 2023. Furthermore, his hitting profile matches that of a typical slugging first baseman. His hard-hit rate (44.6%) was above league-average and his Barrel rate (17.3%) would’ve placed him second in MLB if he had been qualified. Sure, he struck out a lot (32.3%), whiffed a lot (30.4%), and won’t be winning a batting title anytime soon, but his ISO of .247 puts him up there with other known power threats like Juan Soto (.244) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (.259). Luckily for his future team, he won’t cost nearly as much as either of those two superstars. Ford earned just $720,000 from the Mariners for the 2023 season, and won’t make much more in 2024. He’s not a marquee name and his free agency has been buried under more viral news about other superstars, but signing Ford could be a huge value play for Milwaukee. He would add some much-needed power to the lineup and bats left-handed, just like Tellez before him. Also, at just 31 years old with a shade over three years of service time, the Brewers could keep him around for peanuts if they wished to do so. Garrett Cooper Cooper spent six productive years with the Miami Marlins, averaging a .774 OPS and 110 OPS+ over his tenure with the Fish. After he began to slow down in 2023, he was dealt to the Padres at the trade deadline. He managed to regain some momentum in August but slipped again in September, bringing his final slash line for the season to .251/.304/.419 over 457 plate appearances. Cooper’s peripherals in 2023 weren’t great, and the only feature of note was his Sweet-Spot rate (40.4%) which was in the top 5% of qualified hitters. However, it was just a year ago that Cooper earned his first All-Star nod and posted a 112 OPS+. In 2022, he was near the top quartile for several offensive Statcast categories, including expected weighted on base average (.341), Barrel rate (10.7%), and once again, Sweet-Spot rate (39.0%). We saw some flashes of the same player this year, but with higher chase, whiff, and strikeout rates, he just wasn’t able to put the ball in play as often. With slight tweaks to increase his exit velocity and plate discipline, Cooper could return to being a solid offensive contributor at a reasonable price. He signed a $4.2-million contract and avoided arbitration prior to last season, so it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to end up with a one- or two-year deal around the same AAV. He’ll be 33 years old on Opening Day 2024, meaning he might also be a good candidate for an extension if he meets (or exceeds) expectations. Dominic Smith Following a six-year stint with the Mets, Smith signed a one-year contract with the Nationals and became their full-time first baseman. He made major improvements after a dismal 2022 and slashed .254/.326/.366, his highest OPS since an incredible 2020 season that garnered him a handful of MVP votes. While he performed admirably against righty pitchers, he was dragged down considerably by his difficulties against left-handed pitching, posting a .588 OPS against southpaw arms. Unlike the two players mentioned above, Smith traded away power and extra bases to make better contact and avoid getting punched out. His excellent strikeout rate (15.5%) placed him in the 88th percentile of qualified hitters and he performed similarly well when it came to his whiff rate (19.9%), landing in the 79th percentile. Unfortunately for Smith, his low average exit velocity (86.3 mph) severely reduced his ability to make a scoring impact and his Batting Run Value of -17 was in the bottom 5% of the league. The rate stats on each of the pitches he faced were actually quite good, but his catastrophic .510 OPS with runners in scoring position gave him a measly 46 RBI despite often batting fifth or sixth in the lineup. Whether this was a result of bad luck, nerves, or a mix of both, it creates an interesting disparity between his actual stats and their eventual outcomes. Smith earned $2 million over his year with the Nationals before being non-tendered, making him a free agent. Despite his relatively cheap price tag, he’s shown the potential to be a power bat in the past. In 2019 and 2020, he combined for an outstanding .937 OPS over 396 plate appearances with the Mets. With the right development, he may be able to find that success again. If not, he’ll be a low-cost, replacement-level experiment at the very least. Guys Who Were Just Too Expensive To Qualify If Milwaukee had the same payroll as the Mets, Yankees, or Phillies, they’d be free to pursue the likes of Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt. Sadly, with the candidate pool as shallow as it is, players of such caliber are receiving even more inflated market prices. For example, despite not playing a single game in 2023, MLB Trade Rumors is anticipating that Hoskins will sign a two-year, $36-million deal. All 36 years of Brandon Belt is estimated to receive a one-year, $15-million deal. With these financial restrictions in place, it’ll be intriguing to see who the Brewers ultimately decide to trot out to first base on the first day of the season next spring. View full article