BrewerFan

Again, I think you're probably right about the OL. 11 is probably unprecedented, but they've been so vague with Tenuta's injury...we don't know if it's a 6 week injury or is "going to miss significant time," a season long injury? Telford, I think people are sleeping on him. He's a large man and has graded out very highly early on. Just a little clarity with Jones/Tenuta's injuries would make it easier. But lets say Jones has a high ankle sprain and Tenuta has a more significant one. Then I think Telford's chances are dramatically stronger. Caleb Jones played all pre-season last year, he looked dominant vs the backups, but he's only played a few snaps this year. And he was cut last year. So his spot feels pretty tenuous. I wouldn't be shocked to see Newman make the roster or get traded or if Hanson makes the roster. I think they're trying to avoid that by giving JRJ and Tom snaps at Center(Newman as well which helps his case). In any event, Walker's emergence really settles that position down. We don't need a TE who's going to come in and be a focus in the passing game, we need a guy, IMO, who can block given Musgrave and Kraft's inability there. There are also still a couple pretty solid FAs. I just mentioned Maxx Williams, he's a very good blocker and he's played quite a bit on STs. He hasn't played in a similar system however. If SF only keeps 3 TEs, I could see Woerner or Willis as possible waiver claims. I do wonder if they'll make any trades. Isiah Simmons for a 7th round pick would have made a LOT of sense IMO. I still think there's a lot of talent there. And yes, Eric Wilson has to make the roster as their #3 MLBer. McDuffie is solid vs the run, but with Campbell in a walking boot at the moment, even if he's expected to be ready week 1, they can't go into the season with Carpenter in position to get snaps on defense. Innis Gaines...I have absolutely no feel for his chances to make the roster. Having played both Safety and Corner, plus STs should help him, but they talked him up two years ago and we haven't seen much of him since.

I'd agree with most of this. As I said, there are 5 or 6 cuts that I don't believe the team will make, but that I'd like to. Hollins making it at edge is one. He's so athletic he should be a core STer, but I didn't realize he played only 8 STs snaps last year, but 37% of the defensive snaps in the 6 games after coming over from the LAR. I'd assume those numbers will flip. I'd like him more as an edge, but he plays lighter than the 250 he's listed at. Wilson at RB may be a stretch, especially with what MLF said about conditioning, I just feel like he's a different back. I know people will vehemently disagree with this, but I think he may be better than AJ Dillon right now. At least AJ Dillon of '22. That's partially on Dillon who I think was a bit too cute last year. Rather than just lowing his shoulder and getting what he could, he tried to bounce it outside or make guys miss. He may have the same 40 as Aaron Jones, but he does NOT have the same first step. Wilson though...every time he's making the right play. MLF just said he might go with 3 TEs(Deguara being among them I assume). I'm pretty skeptical. I'm not sure why a guy like Maxx Williams(81.0 Blocking grade since 2015, best among TEs) is still on the street, but he's the type of player I think we need. Maybe they like Allen, but they should definitely scour the waiver wire. DL- I agree. Brooks excelled at Bowling Green as a pass rusher but played his best when he was playing outside. He's not doing that in GB. Wooden also played edge. But beyond just needing Ford's size...he looks like he's quicker off the ball, more explosive. We'll see if that translates to any type of difference maker, but I agree, even if Ford is just the player he was last year, they need that depth. Van Ness can kick inside, but they don't seem all that interested in having him get work anywhere but OLBer. I could see Gary moving around more this year, but that'd be primarily in pass rushing situations. MLB-I'd be more confident in Carpenter to the PS or cutting him if Campbell was playing, but he really does look lost. Like he just has very little interest in sticking his nose in there vs the run. I think like Leavitt, he makes it almost exclusively as a STer. S-I think they'll keep 5 or 6, but I don't think there are 5 or 6 guys worth being on an NFL roster. Savage, Ford and Johnson are the only 3 I have some level of confidence in. Stokes back at CB when he's healthy...and I'd be very careful with him as he looked like a difference maker as a rookie, that should really push Douglas to safety. And again, call it whatever you want. Charles Woodson was basically a FS his last couple years in GB, but still listed as a CB. I just don't trust Joe Barry to be creative enough. CB-That makes sense. Thomas has looked physical and willing vs the run, but it seems like he's slid down the depth chart. Innis Gaines is another guy I thought looked good a couple camps ago, but like SJC, it hasn't translated. The top 4 though look really good. Jaire, Douglas, Nixon and Valentine... All in all though, this is about what you expect out of a team during a transition. You could have brought Amos back cheap, but that goes against the whole youth movement. Tonyan might have been worth it, but after picking up Musgrave and Kraft, I don't see what he adds other than experience. Musgrave already looks like the player I'd hoped Tonyan would become. I do think a 10 win season is attainable with this schedule, Love looking more than competent, Barry getting the notice that they don't need to wait until Week 13 to play more aggressively, could help. A healthy OL.

What is Brown Jr's...upside or a comp for you? I'm not very high on him, but not for a good reason. He seems like a guy who's similar to Black in that he's patient, makes good contact, has a little bit of a funky swing/stance(Black the big step, Brown the step up). But Brown Jr is clearly more of a sure thing as a MIFer and it seems like he has really quick wrists. I see big bust potential, but if you tell me that bat is a legitimate 55 or 60 as I see it graded, them I'm thinking more of a Marcus Semien. But I'm a bit skeptical and I seem to miss a lot of his games. But the offensive profile and athleticism seems to be...as close a comp as I can think up in a positive light. I just haven't seen the same things in Brown Jr to put him in the top ~8-10 that others have. So curious to hear a unique breakdown from someone who's watched him closer.

This is getting ridiculous. Gradishar, the Broncos LBer back when teams kept track of tackles and Denver would give him a tackle every time he was within 5 yards of the play. I don't know about Powell, but...Sharpe was right up there with Jerry Rice at the pinnacle of Rice's career. It's kinda silly he's not in. Cecil Isabel is another worthy candidate who was under consideration last year, but that was a different era. I'd loved to have seen Sharpe play a year with Robert Brooks(who had a monster AP season the year after Sharpe's last year). Sooner or later he HAS to make it in, right?

Not sure I've ever inferred it was a "travesty." And you realize you're talking about spring training stats/performance while dismissing AAA stats/performance, right?

Well, they are that now. They're the 3rd seed at the moment in the National League. That makes them a WS contender. Obviously if they lose Burnes and or Woodruff, on paper their chances of winning would get quite a bit smaller, but they should still have an outstanding bullpen(likely even deeper than this years with Uribe more established and if McGill can harness his stuff and you add that to Williams, Payamps, Peguero, Milner). The year we went to the NLCS, we have Gio Gonzalez, Chase Anderson, Wade Miley, Brent Suter, Junior Guerra, Peralta. They pieced together a rotation and made it work with a great pen and with a good offense. I don't think it's a stretch to see a similar team next year but with better SP'ing. Miley could be back, Peralta, Ashby, Gasser, Rodriguez and who knows which prospects rise up or who we acquire in those trades. It's certainly an optimistic outlook, but not an unprecedented one. And I expect Chourio, Black, Frelick, Mitchell, Wiemer, Turang, possibly Quero and then a Wilken or Boeve type could force their way in. I'd still put that team at ~84 wins rather than the mid 90s, but I would think there would be enough encouraging talent that a drop in play wouldn't be the reason Counsell would hang it up. I think IF Counsell retires, it'll be because he's burnt out and just wants to spend time with his kids. And I'd still expect him to be employed and around the team. Especially if Pat Murphy takes over as the manager.

I agree with all of this. And if the contract quirk is the reason, then that makes sense. If they're maybe anticipating a higher payroll next year and they do plan on keeping Burnes, Woodruff and Adames, then a DH/1B who makes 1.1M is perfectly logical. And this is a very well run organization...but they're not flawless. My main point of contention in this particular thread is how the arguments are constantly evolving and contradictory and also filled with strawmen.

And go see what the Mets fans and announcers were saying about Buck's stubbornness. Again though...he DID get an opportunity with the Brewers and he wasn't a former 1st round pick they'd invested time and money in.

Ok, let me try it again. If it's not too much trouble, stop changing my argument to benefit your argument. Show me where I've said this? And since you can't, explain why you continue to make this argument? He played EIGHT GAMES with the Brewers in AAA and correct me if I'm wrong, the Brewers did call him up, right? I think you're kinda making the point. The Brewers have given everyone a chance but Hiura who you guarantee will not be an upgrade.

I literally said they're not in the same league. I simply made an observation their slash lines were VERY similar and how easily we found Carter and now we can't find any type of reliable production at 1B without giving up a top 5 prospect+. I didn't say they had the same OPS+ or WRc+...

They're definitely comparable. I know this because I just compared them and they were within 2 points in BA, 4 points in OBP and 32 points in SLG. Now I DID then VERY clearly say overall, they weren't the same caliber of player; My point was simply how we stumbled upon a guy who was a HR champ and a very productive power hitter and now we'd need to give up a top ~30 prospect and a top ~150 pitching prospect to acquire a guy who can hit for power.

You know, you're just continuing to repeat the same claim even AFTER I've directly addressed it. You make your argument and please don't change mine to serve yours. So...who's saying he'd be a surefire or a guaranteed upgrade? Where is anyone guaranteeing anything here? This is REALLY quite simple. The Brewers are getting very little production out of 1B/DH. The Brewers have a player in their minor league system who's playing 1B/DH who was a former top prospect, has exceptional bat speed and who's overhauled his swing in the past year to make better contact. The Brewers have also used I believe it's over 50 different players this year trying to find SOME production... So maybe it's time to give Hiura another chance or opportunity. See how that differs from a "surefire guarantee?" Conversely, why are we acting like there is a surefire guarantee that Tellez is going to bounce back from what's been an awful hitter since May? Or any number of players? And once more with the "blind faith." Your arguments are so fluid, they really just fit whatever point you're making at the time. Luke Voit played 8 games for the Brewers in AAA, did NOT have better numbers than Hiura and he was given an opportunity. I feel like you're making the point for me(and everyone who thinks it can't possibly hurt to give Hiura another opportunity). Right. And this requires them at some point actually providing him the opportunity to do so...which is the entire point here. MAYBE someone is guaranteeing he'll do whatever. I haven't seen it. The argument has simply been...he's done just about everything you could reasonably ask a guy to do in order to earn another opportunity on the 26 man roster. And I was even fine for a while with the MiLB route and bringing him back for another year. But if he can come up and have an impact this year, that shouldn't be a deciding factor.

I understood you weren't suggesting all 3 as...well, that would be insane. But would you really have felt good about 6+ years of Quero and then I presume you meant the RHP Carlos Rodriguez would have minimal value. The 14 years of a really good catching prospect, or a #3 starting pitcher for 2016 Chris Carter level production. Carter- 222.321.499 OPS of .821 41 HRs Alanso- .224.325.531 OPS of .856 39 HRs Now...OBVIOUSLY they're not in the same league, but it's amazing how we just non-tendered the one and then have struggled to replace his production while the other would cost us one of the top 5 prospects in our of our best systems in team history. I hope we end up happy we didn't make this trade, but Alanso would have changed this lineup in a big way.

I don't actually know that's when he hurt his forearm as it feels very much like a "this guy needs a break/generic injury," type of DL visits and then he got his finger stuck in the wall. Now with regard to qualifying Hiura's production last year, we could also point out that he would regularly sit after having a productive day or that despite having reverse splits, he would often sit vs righties and play vs lefties, but I don't feel like I need to do that. It's baseball. The numbers speak for themselves. I did miss the part where anyone said he'd be a "surefire" upgrade as opposed to the numbers and arguments used against him are contradictory EVERY-SINGLE-TIME. Keston Hiura was a productive hitter last year...and he came back with a VERY different swing and approach and it appears to be working. Yet on a team that seems to be challenging the '21 Sox for most players on their active roster during an MLB season, the former top ~20 prospect with an OPS around 1.000 in AAA is still not among them. So again, it's less about the GUARANTEE that he'd be an upgrade and the..."what in the hell do we have to lose/what more can he do," type of logic. And I fully suspect if they called him up tomorrow, you'd be in favor of the move(please, correct me if I'm wrong). I get the faith the front office has earned....but it does seem to be blind faith at this point. Hell, I'll even accept the, "they can keep him for an extra year as a MiLB Free Agent as a justification. NOT that he's simply not good enough. He's proven he is and he can be good enough to give this team a good boost(STILL not a guarantee that he's a "surefire" anything).

It was his 3rd year in Wisconsin starting back in 2019, then Covid, and then '21, '22-injured, '23... It wasn't long ago we were REALLY hoping either he or Joe Gray Jr would produce to give us a potential 5-tool CFer or just develop their hit tool...we were very short on prospects. It seemed like every year one of the two would get red hot and give you a little hope and then just snatch it back. I don't even know if Gray is still in the organization or if he maybe got waived earlier this year. I'd imagine his time was running out as well.

He was in the lineup everyday until he went on the DL for a 10 day IL stay. That's 34 games from the time he was "injured" that they put him out there? I'd say that's less reason, not more to just have blind faith in their handling of the 1B/DH situation. Why play a guy who's injured and is a black hole for you at the plate? Meanwhile in Boston in ~2/3rds of the ABs the Brewers gave Urias before they decided he wasn't a good bounceback candidate, he's putting up an .800 OPS. Now...is that a tiny sample size? Of course. And yet it's not that much smaller than the one they gave Urias to prove himself after the previous two seasons in which he outperformed Tellez offensively across the board. I'm merely saying, the "they think," or "the front office believes" in the face of actual numbers might not quite be the trump card we think it is given how they've been unable to get much production from the two easiest positions tot create production from.

This is kinda what I was getting at. It feels like a lot of opinions on here are based almost entirely on what the Brewers front office is doing and then justifying that. You made an argument based exclusively on the numbers. Yet Urias was a better hitter, AND had the positional versatility, which Tellez does not. Urias struggled for 20 games coming off injury. Tellez in his last 34 games is hitting .144/.207./189 .396 OPS. Winker has 61 games of a 199/.320/.247 .567 OPS production. Last time we saw Hiura he put up 226/.316/.449 .765 OPS He's ALSO completely overhauled his swing and appears to have closed some of the holes in it(not that AAA numbers count). I really don't see how it's a defensible position to argue that Keston Hiura doesn't make the Milwaukee Brewers better at this point. The ONLY defensible argument is they want to keep him on a MiLB deal so they can pay him 1.1 for next season. But we are trying to win now, so...

Have you seen his swing in AAA? If yes, there's your answer. If no...then his swing. That's what's changed.

Ok...so then why'd they dump Urias so quickly? Urias-.244/340/426 .766 39 HRs 111 OPS+ Tellez- .228/.305/.444/.750 46 HRs 106 OPS+ Gets hurt in Spring Training, 20 games and he's gone? If we're going on past performance, Urias seems like he deserved as least as long of a leash as Tellez got, no?

There are still 3 OF spots. They're starting DJ Stewart, Rapheal Ortega and Starling Marte is still signed for a year. Nimmo is one and he's probably not the defender Frelick is and he's a lot less likely to be the same caliber defender Frelick is over the next 5-6 years when he's 34-36. The Mets had Lindor and McNeil, plus their top prospect and they passed still took back a SS/2B prospect. I doubt the Brewers were giving up Misiorowski, Quero or Frelick for a year+ team control of a power hitting 1B hitting .225. But what's obvious was the Mets were looking for the top prospects. I find these "were close to a deal for," stories unreliable. We were close for Jiminiez...and then it turned out it was actually....whoever else. I think it's just unlikely. Tyler Black. That's what I think they'd offer.

Catchers are extraordinarily difficult to develop. You're assuming the Mets were only looking for players who fit into their future lineup. I seriously doubt that's the case. Black can play 3B/2B/OF Quero-Already addressed. Misiorowski right there with Skenes for the best pure stuff in the minors. Frelick, 1.2 WAR in 28 games vs 2.9 WAR this year. Frelick is a elite defender at all 3 OF positions. Chourio is a ridiculous ask and it seems like both sides agree on that. Nearly 7 years of those players for 1 year and 2 months from a 1B who's obviously a huge power hitter, but a poor defender(-15 OOA at 1B) and a .225/.335 line. I can't imagine a team that's...most likely going to take any or at least many of these top 50 prospects, flip them to compete, that was the holdup. Plus, both of their catchers are poor defensive catchers who could play elsewhere, namely Alvarez. 12% CS, leads the league in passed balls. I'd have traded Black among that group at most without any other considerations.

I'd still like to see them push Yophery. Give him a few ABs at Carolina. They're different types of hitters. Rodriguez is a more disciplined hitters. I'd love to see him get a couple weeks, see how it works. He doesn't need to do much. Just not be overmatched and then start next year out in Carolina. I think his approach is less prone to slumps as he'll keep getting on base even if he's not killing it. Still, for a frame of reference, Chourio .833 OPS at the same age and level, Rodriguez .842 OPS. If he flops like Chourio at AA last year...nobody will hold it against him. If he hits, his prospect status is just gonna get more helium. And what's the harm with giving him a look? I don't see a downside.

Moore to 2B, Brown to SS and Boeve/Wilken to 1st/3B?

First, go and talk to ALL the divorce lawyers in the area. All the good ones. Then...and I hope you're already in charge of a medium size crime family(but also not one of the main ones so you don't draw all their attention) and then I want to bury your assets in places like bird feed. After that...you go to the best Divorce Lawyer and you file. You can get over some thing...infidelity, hiring a hit man to take you out. But...just casually suggesting you should change a life long allegiance? Lets just all be thankful she didn't suggest becoming a Cards fan. That...that would just be too evil and cruel! 2 things; 1-If you haven't watched the Sopranos, you're not going to completely understand the premise. 2-I have too much confidence in people to feel the need to put that in any other type of font.

I'd like to see Musgrave make a contested catch, but he's always open...nobody can cover him! But Reed goes up and gets the ball like AB. Just that mentality that he's coming down with it. Heath is gonna be a fan favorite.