BrewerFan

This is very clearly a contingency plan. If they can't get what they're looking for on the market, they'll give those two a try. Or at very least, see how he can handle the position. I suspect he's been practicing there or getting work there before the game. 0-5...which doesn't tell me much with just one AB.

I'm just skeptical of Bellinger. I look at his exit velo, his hard hit% and they're all DOWN...yet he's having this magnificent resurgence? On the other hand, Yelich...his exit velo and hard hit rate, they've been pretty good throughout his 3 years(his LA plummeted, but that's about it). By those numbers, 2020 should have been Yelich's best year. BUT still...Bellinger is ~25% lower hard hit rate than Yelich, his exit velo is at his career low ~87 MPH...his BB rate is almost the lowest in his career. I think if we trade for Bellinger, we're giving up a key prospect and getting 2020-2022 Cody Bellinger. I completely understand why people want him. The only way he could be a more perfect hit(based on his production thus far) is if he was a right handed hitter and even THEN he's got a line of 344.400.644 1.044 vs LHPing this year. So go get him I guess? Who are we gonna give up? Freddy Zamora? Maybe Zamora+ someone for Bellinger and Mancini? You hope the later can turn it around, but you give up less to take on the salary? I don't know if that's feasible. Candelario conversely, he's got reverse splits as well. Though he hits better on the road, so that may bode well. And he's +5 OAA this year. It's hard for me to go through ALL the defensive metrics and evaluate a player, so I tend to lean on that. Now, would the Cubs give up Bellinger to the Brewers while they're not completely out of the race for anything less than a Moore type prospect? What will it cost to get Jeimer Candelario from the Nats when you account for the teams that'll be vying for him? It's PRETTY easy to see what Arnold is talking about. Not that he's "Hesitant to add a bat," it's that he's hesitant to add the few bats that are available for inflated prices while damaging the leagues best run prevention unit. But sure, you(not you, the Royal you) could dumb it down to "hesitant to add a bat."

One reason the Dodgers system ALWAYS looks so damn loaded...is they're not calling guys up early. They let them force their way into the lineup, they're not called up out of necessity. I made a thread people...generally disagreed with talking about trading Yelich after this year to move the contract and the main thinking was...if you can lock those guys up(And Quero certainly belongs in there) and you have a core that's locked in long term, you've just got these guys coming in waves. I'd include Frelick, Wiemer...Turang in that list. At the price I'd like to see Frelick and Turang at this point, it's probably not in their interest since they got 1st round money, but Wiemer? 8 years, say 40M with 2 option years and then you can build in incentives. 30, 40 HRs...make it so he CAN earn another 10-12M. I don't know how realistic that is, but I really believe if you do this with our best prospects, even if one turns out to be a Hiura type...you'll still be coming out well ahead.

We don't have a replacement for Yelich in the pipeline? Yeah, we most certainly do. Frelick, Chourio, Wiemer, Mitchell...Black could also be an OFer and Carlos Rodriguez is also in AA and while not a power hitter, certainly another competent OFer. And those are just players likely to be on the roster within the next year. And it's not so much a "problem," but allocation of resources. I'd rather see 130M going to a long term extension for Chourio to early in his career ala Wander Franco(rather than Julio Rodriguez...I don't think that is feasible). It's also about selling high. In the last 4 years, Yelich has had ONE really good year and it's this one. Again, to start the season, I saw people talking about how he had -100M in Surplus value and if you included him in a Burnes trade, you'd basically just be trading Burnes to unload that salary. So we have all 3 OF positions covered and we're more like two deep with very young players and one player who may be the best prospect the Brewers have EVER had in their system.

I don't know if that's true. Just to make this point again, but IF he were a FA this off-season...what do you think he'd go for? I think 5/110 would be about the minimum given the lack of impact FAs. So MAYBE you have to eat the deferred money, but I don't think so. I think 5/130 is pretty close to what he'd get. I guess it's all speculative anyway and I don't think there's any real chance we trade him. I don't actually expect GMs to think like this. He'll be a Brewer until he retires. And he will almost certainly at LEAST be the player he was last year and that's not killing you at 22M a year(plus the deferred money). What a difference 4 months makes in fan perception though.

They do have a ridiculous amount of high upside pitchers. The Dodgers and Rays are the systems we should be trying to emulate(and I think we are).

So just to be clear, you'd be thrilled trading a guy like Chourio for Lourdes Gurriel Jr? The future is the future...and it's generally a good idea to plan for it. I sincerely hope you are not a financial advisor! "Nah, go ahead, get that Lamborghini Huracan now. What's 200K? The future will be what it'll be! Who needs a retirement fund!"

Eloy Jiménez, CF...book it! Yeah, that whole..."catching the ball," thing is nice, but what has defense or run prevention ever really gotten? It's not as cool as a good bat flip. Also, I remember Yount saying LF was actually more difficult than CF. So you take away any netting for the graceful Jimenez to get caught in and just let him play CF. Done and Done....though he's not an AS, so it's still kinda small thinking. -Ok, I did put this in blue font, but it didn't show up. I may have hit reply too quickly. So...just read it in the OBVIOUS blue font it should be in!

This is effectively the proposition. A salary dump for the most part. Get back a couple of young arms that have some upside, but not top 100 prospects. Just young, talented arms...probably rookie ball guys. Just lottery tickets. The fact that the exit velocity never really matched the down years, I get why fans want to keep him. Again, I'm just looking at where this team will be in 2-3 years and where his value was just this past off-season. So I understand why people don't want to move a guy who not only committed to this team at below market rates and who wants to be here. Still a bit surprised at the poll, but...I suppose that's the point.

Yeah. I'm not completely sold on Misiorowski being a future Burnes or Woodruff, but I don't know that we need that. I'm sold on it if he can get the innings in and throw 110IP in AA next year. I'm a little worried that he's so good he's going to move quickly, be a part of our pen as soon as this year and then we're kinda in that Ashby area with him spending a few years wanting to do what's best with the team but not fully developing him. BUT...the way the Brewers find these arms who are competent and just looking back to Counsel's NLCS run, I think we've ignored what got us there and decided we need two guys in the top 5 in Cy Young voting in order to win. We've got a BP that will have Williams, Uribe, Payamps, Peguero and who the hell else in a year or two. Peralta, Gasser, hopefully Ashby is good(I'd be letting him sit until next STing after having shoulder surgery, but I'm also ignorant as to the nature of it, just nothing scarier for a pitcher than shoulder surgery). After that, you could have Misirowoski obvious, Carlos Rodriguez, maybe Jarvis, Small. Not giving up on either yet, look at Rich Hill's early years. And we find pitchers who have just that one thing that needs to be corrected and work with them SO well, it's just such a luxury. We're not in Rays territory yet...but we're DEFINITELY trending in that direction more than we've ever been in franchise history.

2026?!? I think it's far more likely Chourio is in the OF playing everyday June of 2024. He's already in AA and raking. 2026 would be 2 more years in the minors(and you're saying that'd be the soonest by saying at LEAST) I think that is incredibly unlikely and would mean something has gone very wrong in his progress. Especially given how we'll he's hitting in AA now.

A Jackson Chourio contract. I was thinking about Acuna Jr and realized he'd be in the same position as Corbin Burnes right now if the Braves hadn't extended him...and I think that 130M would be better used paying Chourio from ages ~21-30 than Yelich from 32-38.

It's not this trade deadline, it'd be after this year. That's why I said going into 2024.

Well...he could just as easily be back pitching next Sept or whatever, but I genuinely don't care if he's back next year or if he waits and maybe throws in the AFL and then is all the way back in '25. He's an ELITE pitching prospect and I'd almost rather get a pitcher after a TJ than before when he's accruing service time. I think that's dreaming a little bit as Burnes has just one year left, but we should get something significant for him.

His BB% really is the ONLY area that he could improve. This could be where moving to AAA with more pitchers with MLB experience, but maybe not as good of pure stuff could benefit him. With his bat speed, ridiculous power, if he can be just a bit more selective up there, hunt the pitch he's looking for and get that BB% up to ~10 or higher while keeping the K% in the 20-25%...he already has Acuna Jr type upside, but Acuna Jr has a RIDICULOUS 11% BB rate and a 12%K rate this year. I'm not expecting that...and I don't think anyone was expecting THAT from Acuna Jr, but just moving in that direction and his ceiling is higher than probably any Brewers prospect we've ever had. On a side note, if Acuna Jr hadn't signed an extension, he'd be set to hit FA the same year as Burnes. As it stands, he has 5 more years of team control.

Just to be VERY clear, I am loving what Yelly has done for us this year. His bounce back has made him the backbone of our offense and he seems to just continue ascending. That said, at the start of the season, people were talking about if we traded Burnes, could we include Yelich into that deal. That was mostly shot down by talking about all his negative value. That said, what would we feel if a team(it'd likely have to be a west coast team given his no-trade) came along and offered a couple of lower level prospects with some upside, but no top 100 prospects...who here would be willing to trade him? I know it's ALWAYS harder to trade a guy when he's coming off a monster season, and if he proceeds like he did in '18(and he's not far off the pace) then that'd change the equation. But in the last 4 years, he's struggled relative to his contract pretty badly in 3 of them. He was a servicable leadoff hitter last year, but not the player we were hoping when he signed that. The BIG thing that would make it far more palpable is what we have coming on the way. We have our future OF pretty much set with Chourio, Wiemer, Frelick, Mitchell, then Carlos Rodriguez and a host of other young OFers in the system that are ticketed for Milwaukee by late '24 or '25. That money saved from Yelich could go to a Woodruff extension if they wanted to, or even a big contract extension right out of the gate for guys like Chourio, Quero and maybe even Frelick, Wiemer and Turang(to varying degrees). In a poor FA class for OFers, Yelich would probably be the best available. He has 5/130 remaining on his deal(including the deferred money)+ a mutual option for 6.5M. He'll be 32 years old and coming off a ~5+ WAR season. The only OFer who may be on his level if Kevin Kiermaier who derives far more of his value as a CFer. I know it seems like a ridiculous question at this point in time given what he's done for the Brewers, but we have to be proactive, right? Even if we get another big season or tree from Yelich, you're still looking at what will almost certainly be a couple really bad years at this point(as is always the expectations when you sign long term deals). Again, I know this is the worst possible time to ask this question...and it's NOT an anti-Yelich question, I love having the guy. It's just a pragmatic one for me. Our money would be better served going to the young franchise changing OFer named Chourio, and I don't want to hear the countdown starting as soon as he plays for the Brewers. Our window is open for X number of years, or the "what can we get for Chourio," in a few years as we've done with Burnes the last few years.

I think it's a much bigger gamble to go with the draft picks rather than MiLB prospects who we've seen play for a couple years. Guys who may be in AA by the time we make the trade for them. There's FAR less variation between them and a prep arm or even a College bat at that point in the draft. Plus, you're likely getting one very highly rated prospect for Burnes, plus a couple other lower level guys who've already been signed and again, dealt with pro-ball.

This is what I'd do. The shoulder may have Woodruff considering an extension ala Luis Castillo. Burnes is gone most likely. Just too far down that road. Best case is he pitches out of his mind, great 2nd half, great playoff run, jack up his value and then flip him to a team like the Dodgers for a guy like Bobby Miller and a couple lower rated prospects. Or whoever...the Dodgers have so many high upside arms, it doesn't have to be a top 50 guy. The Mets are another obvious choice along with the Phillies given the division they're in. Given the transition we're going into, I wouldn't be against pairing Williams with Burnes to try and pry away a guy like Painter from the Phils with Baker and Ottenbreit. One big time prospect, plus a couple of power arms with various issue. Anyway, I still believe we're a team that can't afford to just let guys walk without compensation and with so many of our position prospects already up and/or projected to be up by next year, I'd like a couple more young pitchers on their same time timeline. I no longer believe the "window closes," after Burnes, Woody and Adames as I once did. I think it looks WIDE open in 2025. Could be open even wider if we were able to parlay Burnes into another really nice pitching prospect. Of course...I'm skeptical the Phils would consider it.

That was my guy originally as well, but when I saw the Morton comp, the spin rates, the 97 velo...and the Brewers thought there were similarities to Burnes. But when it comes to this stuff, I'm more like a 15 year old in HS. My eyes go right for those nice, dancing...spin rates and those big, beautiful...fastball. I take solace in knowing that the people who know what they're doing are looking a bit deeper than I would have! This was a late revelation, but Leston is younger, he's throwing 94(both are upper Midwest, so little difference there). A couple years from now and Leston could be in AA and our next rising pitcher and Morton could be a 2nd/3rd round pick.

Nit pick away...I always slip up on Greene and Moore. That last line is why I am SO incredibly excited about this team. I really believe one of these years things are going to come together. A healthy year from Misiorowski, Ashby steps up and becomes a #2, Peralta, Gasser and I mean...who knows who else it could be...and Uribe looks like a future Clase type reliever, offense coming up in droves. I wonder when the Brewers start to consider a long term deal for a guy like Chourio? You'd think of all the prospects we've had, he'd be like Braun. One you look to sign immediately. Or hell, more like Longoria/Franco. That's just so premature, but he's the type of guy you need to keep around. He's a franchise building block.

Ah...thought he was a June Birthday. That was stuck in my head for some reason. Anyway, kid looks brilliant...even at the ripe old age of 18 by December! We've just gone sooo long where we'd have all our eggs in one basket so to speak. I remember, you NEEDED Mark Rogers to or Jones, or Jungman or Bradley or whoever it may be and now there's less pressure on them and it's just one group at each level with a couple guys who have big time talent.

I think he will, but I also think he's very much still a legitimate prospect for the Brewers...though one who's very much under the radar. He was drafted in '19 out of a small school(Elon). Played rookie ball, 2020 came, no MiLB...and they jumped him to AA in '21 and he predictably struggled. '22 he had a BIG year -264./342./492 and OPS of .834 '23 he started off a bit slow, but he's been playing well for a while now. -May 25th he was hitting; 182/.267/.318 .585 OPS -Now he's up to .251/.346/.462 OPS- .808 26 BB/32 K, 11.5 BB% 16.8 K% That's not SINCE May 25, that's his overall slash line right now. He's also crushed lefties the last two years(.903/.946 OPS in '22 and '23). --Add that to the fact that he's an elite defensive 3B, SS and can play 2B...and that's a guy who's got value, particularly to a team like the Brewers. So an older out of College in '19, rookie ball, skipped year, struggled in AA '21, very good 2nd full season in '22 so he's really in his 3rd year of development and he's gotten much better after that rough jump from rookie to AA and he's just kept getting better at AAA. The glove plays at the most important position. I think he could just be a late bloomer moreso than a "long-time farmhand," since...as you can see, he really hasn't been in the system that long. His biggest obstacle now is the 40 man, otherwise I could have seen him called up to man 3B for a short stretch, but I believe he'll play himself on next year. Brian Anderson will be gone. Urias...who knows. He'll likely get another shot. But after that, it's Monastario, Owen Miller and Devanney who'll be competing and there's an outside chance Adames is gone. We'll likely find out pretty early next year. Maybe even by the time they have to set their 40 man roster for the rule 5. I don't know who exactly needs to be added to the roster. I think at worst, he could be a guy who's defense provides value at SS/3B/2B, hits for a little power and compliments the lineup well. I don't think I'd make the move just yet.

Yes...to ALL of this. I obviously don't know exactly how the Brewers go about things, but I VERY much hope that not only do they have a very good..."apprentice," type program. I fear a brain drain with Stearns. Not all the top dogs(though perhaps some). But those scouts and Johnson, the pitching lab, Charlie Moore...so many guys behind the scenes that we hear or see VERY little about who churn out good relievers by unlocking a different sinker in the case of Peguero or they turn an awful defensive catcher into a guy ranked in the top 6 in throwing, blocking and framing as they did with Contreras. But the to build the type of system we have now, it requires not just a big investment from ownership in the department(Which we've gotten) but as you said, those guys who go everywhere to uncover those arms, who develop relationships with the players, who gauge their demands so we can sign 18 guys in a draft class MOST of us would have been THRILLED getting ~14 players signed in. So I hope we keep Johnson obviously, but it runs so much deeper than that. From top to bottom, we've never been run this well IMO(Stearns is also largely to thank for this) in the scouting department at all levels and we've never had a farm system that has Jackson Chourio and we're already looking at a 17 year old with a .300/450/550 slash line in the DSL who could VERY possibly become a top 100 himself next year and will likely/possibly start in full season ball next year before his 18th Birthday due to his advanced approach. VERY exciting time to be a Brewers fan at all levels...though, think about how good we'd look if we could afford a 4th OFer or a middle reliever for ~8-10M a year and get rid of our Latin American department all together!

The Cards came to him and asked, "Do you think Baseball should be fun," and when he said yes, they pulled the offer. They can't have kids playing a sport as adults thinking it's "fun and games." How are they gonna explain a player smiling to the kids that go to the games? How can Carpenter and Wainwright and future manager Molina continue to with their righteous indignation if they throw out one of those kids showing up pitchers by smiling? Just wasn't a risk they could take! (I don't like the blue font, hard to read against the background...so consider this my blue font).