BrewerFan

It's always hard to tell. A lot of times the younger teams will look the best in pre-season as you're playing guys who could/should play a big role in the regular season later in the pre-season games. Heath for example, he's made this roster IMO. I can't imagine how he doesn't. And I think he's going play a significant role in STs before earning snaps on offense, but he brings that toughness you lost with Lazard. Karl Brooks and Colby Wooden are both guys who have looked good. Enagbare has looked outstanding. Van Ness looks...one dimensional at this point, but sooo much like Gary(power rush and then hustling down the field to make plays). I don't know what this team is in terms of Wins and Losses, but there is a whole lot of exciting young talent. Musgrave, Reed, Heath, Wicks, Valentine(he really looks like a starter in the NFL...and I don't care if he's covering backups). Wilson is a guy I think they lose if they don't keep him. And I know people think that every year, there's always going to be a guy fans think will get claimed...ignoring each team has players like that. But Wilson is different. The balance he runs with, the power, speed and MOST importantly, his vision and reads are better than any RB sans Aaron Jones. And Clifford has been an awesome surprise as well. It's got a similar feeling to the Brewers. This year probably won't be "the year," just as '24 likely won't be the year for the Brewers, but you can see so many of the pieces in place. And then you look ahead at the '24 draft, which is insanely deep, particularly where the Packers likely need help(OT/DL)...and I'm just hoping the old man in New York gets to 65% of the plays.

It's starting to look less and less irrational.

On the heels of a 3-5 and 4-4, 1BB game now, Adames looks like he's getting going a bit. Part of it has been an abnormally low BABIP(.232 just a week or so ago, not up to .244). A strong finish to the season and a productive playoff run could rebuild a whole lot of value. No clue what LAD would give up for him, but a 1 for 1 with a guy like Pepiot would be good with me.

There is a much stronger argument to keeping Burnes and Woodruff when you have the 3rd rated farm system in the game and players coming up behind this current crop...than there was when you had the 20th ranked farm system and you had a couple of blue chip prospects. Hopefully you'd be looking at offering 3 Qualifying offers with Adames earning one...and then you've got a very healthy bonus pool again and we could hopefully see another draft that follows the model of this past draft. The problem in my opinion is the final year of those players doesn't line up as well as you'd hope with the prospects. Black, Quero and Chourio at best will be rookies(I'd guess Quero will spend most of next year in AAA short of any injury issues or another black hole at DH that necessitates moving Contreras to DH on a more regular basis). I just think you're gonna be in a better place the next 5-6 years if you get young pitching that can come up and develop with the young hitters then going for it all in one year. As a fan, it's sure as hell be a lot more fun to ride it out and see Chourio and Burnes on the field together. And if Attanasio is to be believed, and call me naïve, but I do...I think the money is that to increase the payroll in a year they think they can be competitive. So while Burnes(~20), Woody(~20), Yelich(22) and Adames(12? I have no idea with him) making ~75M among the 4 of them, I think they should be able to pull that off with the youth and pre arby players all over the field.

MAYBE losing Burnes(and even Woodruff) does not mean we're in a "rebuild." We'd almost certainly be improving our offense, our defense and we'd be downgrading our SPing with Gasser hopefully Ashby, Carlos Rodriguez and then perhaps a FA signing(perhaps Miley is back as well) heading into next year. That wouldn't be a rebuild. It'd be a necessary transition for a team that cannot afford to pay TOR pitchers a year our from FA. Heading into next year if you just told me they traded Burnes and kept Woodruff, I'd expect the Brewers to be an mid 80 win team, but one with a wider variation of potential outcomes as you don't know what you'd be getting exactly from Chourio, Black, Mitchell(he has looked good in small samples, but I don't know if he's kinda an elite 4th OFer with Chourio/Frelick and Wiemer or if he pushes one out of the lineup or platoons(they shouldn't consider platooning Chourio and I don't like platooning Frelick so that leaves the one option). We actually were big spenders there for a minute under Selig. We led the AL a couple years, handed out the big contract in MLB history to Yount...but that's when the payrolls were 20M, not 500M with the luxury tax like the Mets are paying. In any event, I don't think he's blaming Attanasio. He worked in the FO before moving back into the dugout. I think he understands...as you said.

No, you don't seem like you're getting emotional about this at all. Now, the MAIN point...he doesn't have a reliable 2nd breaking ball. And to be clear, Misiorowski HIMSELF disputed the Statcast. Jesus dude...this is the 2nd post and my POINT is that he doesn't have a starting pitchers repertoire yet. Call the mid 80s to upper 80s breaking ball a CB. He's STILL lacking that 2nd reliable breaking ball. So then we agree and you can calm down a bit.

First of all...you don't need to get so emotional. Second, you AGAIN ignored the...overwhelming majority of my post and the parts that were actually relevant. Third, here's another scouting report; And a 3rd; Or you could go back and look at his futures game where he showed two pitches. A FB and a Slider. He's got a breaking ball that sure looks like a slider to me. And his outing at the Futures Game where he was showcasing his best stuff. That looks like a FB/SL with a mid 90s Cutter thrown in there. Not a dominant CB. But lets say it's a CB or a "slurveball." It's not a reliable 3rd pitch he can get over the plate yet. THAT in all of your anger seems to be the point you're missing out on. You can't allow OVER two runners per inning as a high leverage reliever on a playoff team. And yet he's been FAR better at AAA than Misiorowski has been at AA...which is kinda making my point. AGAIN, 21 IP and he's given up 27 runners via HBP and BB. The point WASN'T that we have to bring Viera up. The point was just because we've got a prospect with flashy stuff doesn't mean it's in his best interest or ours to rush him up.

I don't think outside of kicker, I think just in general. Carlson is going through his rookie bumps, but he's got a monster leg and he can look really good at times. But the safety position...unless we get an unexpected contribution from Savage and then move Douglas(which seems unlikely)...I don't know what the plan is. 1st-Get Stokes back. The CB position at the moment should afford him plenty of opportunity to take his time, but outside of that, you have CB-4 Locks(Stokes PUP) -Jaire(true #1) -Valentine -They've said he's arguably not just been the standout rookie of the camp, but the standout PLAYER...which is insane as a 7th round pick, but every time we've seen him, he looks outstanding. He looks like a starting outside CB. -Nixon-Has the slot position -Douglas- He's filled in very well, but he's not an ideal match with these other CBs. Even Moreso when Stokes comes back. He's at his best reading the QBs eyes, playing the ball. Likely to make 53 -Corey Ballentine-He's a competitive CB. He's looked good at times. He's physical and a very good STer. Long shots -Jean-Charles-Seen some flashes from him, but we've seen those the last couple years. Practice Squad -Kiondre Thomas-He's physical and pretty solid in coverage, but has had a quiet camp. At this point, I think he's waived and finds a place elsewhere. -William Hooper- He's got good speed, he's also made some nice plays, but he's also been very physical. He has one more week and has a chance to play himself onto STs. Joe Barry needs to be creative and get the 4 CBs on the field as much as possible. Savage-Should get another chance, but he's best suited as a slot and he's not been very physical. Just kinda peaked year 2 and then hasn't been reliable since. Sapp, Ford...none of them have really shown much. Anthony Johnson is a guy I'm holding out some hope for. He may not start early on, but he has the ability to work his way into the lineup. Good coverage skills, physical...and smart. That'd be my secondary Jaire/Valentine/Douglas/Nixon/Savage and then Anthony Johnson in the nickel or Rudy Ford if you need a little more thump. But you can move guys around. Just call it 4 CBs and 1 Safety if it makes Barry feel less apprehensive about "moving Douglas to safety." Let him play Robber or play some Cover3 match with him playing that underneath zone. Less run and cover, more read the QB and jumping routes.

This came up on another thread and...I'll just reiterate my objection. Misiorowski has thrown 21 IP in AA. He has 11 HBP in 5 starts(2,4,0,3,2) and he has another 16 BBs to go with 17 hits allowed. So that's 44 runners allowed in 21 IP. His WHIP is 1.57, but obviously Whip doesn't account for HBP. So add that and we're at about 2.1 "Whip." He's electric, but so is Thyago Vieira for example. He's got that triple digit fastball and a nasty slider and he's performed better in AAA than Misiorowski has at AA(albeit in limited innings). Vieira- 3.48 ERA in ~35 IP in AAA he has 3 HBP, 15 BB, Whip of 1.37, 44 Ks so he's a big strikeout pitcher. He's got electric stuff, a nasty slider. But we're not clamoring for him because...he's not an exciting young prospect. You'd need to add him to 40 man well before it's really necessary, you'd start his clock(even if it's a insignificant amount of service time) and you'd burn an option. The Burnes and Woodruff comps will be made, but while Misiorowski is a better pitching prospect than either, he's also a much more raw prospect. He's more comparable at THIS point to Josh Hader when they brought him up(though Hader was throwing better...especially when you factor in that AAA was Col Springs). And THAT is when Hader went from a starting pitching prospect in 2017(63rd rated prospect) to vital piece of the BP. And that was great. Hader worked out wonderfully. But does anyone wonder what might have happened if we'd given him more time to develop as a starter? This is the 2016 MLB top 100 Write-up for Hader when he was still a starter; So he was AAA starter putting up a solid season. The concern for Hader at that time was being able to repeat his delivery and developing a 3rd pitch. That sounds a WHOLE lot similar to Misiorowski at this point than it does Burnes or Woodruff. Both were established starters. If they force him into the pen before he's ready, he could definitely have some success as a multi-inning reliever. But I think there's a strong chance he relies exclusively on his FB/SL combo, not develop the Change or the CB, both of which are well behind in their development and now Misiorowski becomeswhat? Abner Uribe? And before you say "they can just move him back into the rotation," we've seen with Ashby, that's not always the best for a younger pitcher. I think it's hampered Peralta. I think it only worked with Woody and Burnes because they were two workhorses who were further along in their development having spent 3 years in College, more of a track record in the minors, but MOST importantly, both had 3 really good pitches at the time. So just my opinion, I'm leaving Misiorowski in AA the rest of this year, starting him there next year and letting him spend most of the year there, making him throw his CB, Change and Cutter more regularly. As great as Josh Hader was, his value is always limited by the fact that he throws 1/3rd to 1/4th the innings a TOR starting pitcher throws. Long story short, give this kid a chance to develop. He's got premiere stuff, but he's only a year out from being drafted out of a JUCO and he doesn't turn 22 until after the start of next season. #1 priority should be make this team better this year and; #2-developing Misiorowski into a SPer. I really don't think either are best served. But again, I understand the excitement. A guy who can throw 103 with insane movement, the Brewers history of bringing up pitchers to throw in the pen late in the year. It also makes sense...until you break it down(In my humble opinion). Robert Glasser however? That one is a no-brainer. He can come in and throw a couple innings and easily transition back to the rotation next year. Hell, Carlos Rodriguez makes as much sense as anyone IMO.

LOL...I didn't know there was a Tyler Black height debate, but....I'll let that lie. And it'd stand to reason that Chourio's listed height may be inaccurate. You're picking these kids up when they're 16/17. I don't think they're placing height over athletic ability or bat skills. I think when they're looking at young kids and trying to guess what a 14-15 year old kid will be(which is when most players agree to sign with a team)...you're projecting how good that guy is going to be. Obviously we know with pitchers your frame and build play a significant role. If Logan Henderson was 6'4 when drafted, they'd be talking about how he could hopefully add a couple MPHers to his velo, but at 5'11, his ceiling is a bit limited. But it doesn't take away from how effective he's been this year. But it's also the case with hitters. Look at the top 10 in OPS. You have Ohtani 6'4, Olson, 6'5, Freeman, 6'5, Tucker, 6'4. Everyone is 6'2 or taller but Acuna Jr and Mookie Betts. Even guys who are more compact like we think of Trout, he's still 6'2 235. Longer levers obviously are more conducive to hitting for power. There's more room to fill out. The players listed are almost all extremely talented with very high ceilings, but Lara has limited upside at 5'7, he's likely to not hit for much power. O'Rae, same. Carlos Rodriguez(CF)...very few guys under 5'10 have much in the way of power. On the other hand, you get a big guy like Adams, Wiemer, Yophery, Bitonti(don't need the whole list again) and you've just got more upside. That doesn't mean you have stringent size criteria like the Packers do when it comes to drafting positions...it just means you're more likely to find top prospects who are over 6' than under.

What Stearns did in overhauling(or really creating) the Latin American development has changed this entire franchise. Our top pick since our system went from bottom ~5 to top 3 has been...Sal Frelick. 15th overall? Not exactly Dylan Crews and a lock to be a MLB contributor. They seemed to have the pitching development and the ability to turn offensive minded catchers into defensive savants(little hyperbole, but not much) was already well established, but I think in another year or two, we're going to find that Stearns was able to accomplish the same thing with these young bats(we already kinda know, but until they're actually on the field making an impact, there are people who will dismiss prospects). It seems like the only place they could really do better at this point in time, or maybe where the Rays are doing better, is they stay on some of the guys they scouted like Caminero, a prospect just below Chourio...who it not appears is very possibly their SS of the future. A guy they traded...Tobias Meyers for. 60 hit, 60 power, and can play SS/.3B and then Curtis Mead...another guy they got out of rookie ball for a pitcher who's no longer a prospect. This is why I hate the idea of trading a Yophery Rodriquez or Baez type prospect. The upside is so big, but a player in rookie league seldom has the trade value for it to make sense. And hey, despite the Rays front office being pillaged and them losing Friedman, they've got the infrastructure in place, so what Stearns put in place should remain, even if he does poach some of our scouts or whoever. Great time to be a Brewers fan.

I just think they're doing a REALLY good job of hitting on players. I don't think this is necessarily a conscious choice or taking advantage of shorter players being undervalued. They've also added quite a few guys who are 6'4 or bigger who should be top ~15 prospects in Misiorowski, Bitonti, Pratt, Wilken, Adams, Letson... But there may be something to smaller players like...O'Rae and an organizational shift that started a few years ago where they prioritized contact and athleticism(which is timing up perfectly with the limited shift). You may be right though. It's entirely possible if Chourio was 6'3, he'd have gotten a signing bonus 2X the size as it's obvious easier to project power coming from a frame like that. Knoth is almost certainly going higher if he's 6'4 rather than ~6'. I just think the Brewers have been doing it better than everyone else save for Tampa. Obviously the LAD do an outstanding job building their system. They also have obvious advantages built in when it comes to signing LA prospects vs the Brewers just based on name recognition.

It's definitely worth it for Gasser, but Misiorowski just isn't close. He needs a lot more time. And you're putting him on the 40 man WELL before you need to or there's a good reason to.

Gasser is in a totally different group from Misiorowski. Gasser is ready. He can get the call at any time. I suspect they'd prefer to get through this year without having to add him to the 40 man, but that's not a good enough reason to not bring him up. Misi, I already made my argument. I don't think it's good for his development. You're starting his clock and locking him into the 40 man at least a year before it actually makes sense to do so. And again, he's struggled at AA as a whole. He's shown great things when looking at him as a prospect. How overpowering he can be is exciting. But how wild he is-is a clear sign he needs more time to develop.

He has VERY seldom thrown a curve or really anything outside of a FB/SL. And it's certainly not an effective pitch at this point. This isn't a shot at Misiorowski. He's got almost generational type arm talent and I suspect with his spin rate, his cutter could be a Burnes type pitch...but he has to improve the command. The curve is more of a slurve, but he just doesn't throw it reliably yet. Ultimately, this is a guy who's in AA...who in 21 IP, he's walked 16 and hit another 11 batters. He's hit 2,4, 0, 3, 2 batters in those 5 games. 27 in 21IP, plus the 17 hits is why you have a ~5.60 ERA. I'm extremely excited about this kid, but I don't think he's all that close to where he needs to be.

I really think this was a product of styles. Wolf or Gutekunst as the GM most of his career and I think they'd have been much more aggressive...but Thompson just wasn't interested in FA much. Allen Robinson...who at the time was on par with Davante Adams, he turned down a deal that was reportedly 3/42 but with slightly less GTD money to sign with the Bears during the Packers big spending spree Gutey's first year as the GM. Anyway, just noticed that Clowney signed with the Ravens for 2.5M(up to 6M in ULTBE incentives). That's an outstanding deal at this time of the year. I'd have been on board with that type of signing and playing him more as a DE. He's quietly have a VERY good career despite being viewed as a bit of a bust given the ridiculous expectations, but he's rock solid vs the run year after year.

I really don't want to even plan on Misiorowski until '25, or late '24. He is just not close to being ready to be an MLB starter. Let him get some more innings in AA, then, in AZ, in the lab, he can work on that cutter, change and...maybe a CB. And then I'd start him in AA again next year. As good as these young guys are, IF they're better than who they'd replace on the roster isn't significant enough to start their clock and sacrifice their development. But if you bring him up now, he's not going to develop that 3rd pitch as it's sink or swim. You're not going to be giving him 4-5-6 innings, he'll be a reliever. And as electric as he is, his command isn't where it needs to be either. I like the aggressive promotion, but we really need him to develop into a starter. I feel like this would end up with him more likely becoming a reliever. And I get Burnes and Woody did it, but they were both 3 year College pitchers. He's already ahead of their schedule. That is a deGrom like arm and if things go according to plan, he steps in as a TOR arm for '25 when Burnes and Woodruff are likely to be gone.

??? That's in quotes...I missed that the first time through.

Ok, if that's all your getting for Adames, I think it'd make a lot more sense to keep him rather than selling low on him. And I do not think Williams would have more value. Sewald got a significantly worse return than Hader. They got a guy who's ~30 years old and a...4th OFer at best. A two guys in the 14-15 range for Seattle, not a particularly good system. That's not all that close to Gasser...plus getting back another closer and Ruiz who had quite a bit of helium. Hader has had one of the greatest starts to his MLB career for a reliever EVER. `285IP, 2.26 ERA, 15.4 K/9 He was even better in the playoffs with ~20IP, a 1.37 ERA, 1.22 FIP Devin Williams has been...GREAT. He hasn't pitched in the playoffs(injured both times) and I think we saw last year, that extra half year isn't that big of a deal. But I don't think you're getting a top 100 pitcher, a AA MIFer and then Church is a...Uribe type prospect for me. A level below, but I love that addition. I'm just struggling to see a top 100+2 more guys in AA and AAA for 2 years of Williams when we got Gasser(who is below Porter value wise). Foscue, a guy probably just outside the top 100 and then Church. I'd be thrilled though. The cost to Miller Park/Am Fam, whatever...those are gonna rise by another 200M after I start pounding on the door beating it down if they trade Quero! If you're trading a Catcher like Quero, I'm gonna want Caminero back instead. Mead is a 2B with his poor throwing arm. Maybe you throw in Lara or something, but that's who I'd wnt back. Developing catchers is 2nd only to starting pitchers and maybe more difficult. We've got a good one. I think a future AS. I don't want Mead...impressive though he may be. I don't think TB is moving off Caminero...especially with so much questions around Franco...which it SEEMS like this was from years ago, but...I don't know. I don't know how they keep developing guys like that. But assuming this WAS from when Franco was 18 and she's 19 now and her 2 year old isn't Franco's(early days, started with a Reddit post, so IDK)...but then myaybe they trade him. That'd answer 3B and then Black plays 2B and your lineup is set. Frelick/Chourio/Yelich/Caminero/Contreras/Black/Wiemer/Turang then Monastario at 2B., Black at 1B or Yelich at 1B and leave DH open or get a JD Martinez. Maybe Tellez, Hiura...IDK, but that's 8 spots set in stone for a long time...and I don't think we get Caminero back, but I'm stubborn on Quero. And I can see how much value Contreras could have in a year or two. He may be our ticket to getting a big pitcher. I'm more worried about filling in around our top prospects than trading a C for a 2B for a better fit unless you get a truly elite prospect.

As they were last year...and it was the Pads and Phillies in the NLCS. Even when we played them in '18, they were better in both facets of the game. #1 in runs, #1 in ERA. I'll roll the dice in a playoff series with Burnes, Woody, Peralta, Miley and then piecing together the back end of a BP. We've got a punchers chance. This was uncharacteristically bad defense, but...sooo many teams have won in the playoffs vs teams that were obviously MUCH better. We'll see. Uribe gives us another weapon. Lauer, maybe...IDK, any number of hitters. Black could be one or whoever. Not waving the white flag yet. Edit-Forgot about Ashby. IF-IF he comes back...that could be another multi-inning reliever who can throw in the upper 90s with some NASTY stuff(if he's actually all the way back).

LOL...ok bud. I'm sorry you don't get it, but...how long do you want to do this? How eager were you for this game to end? The Oakland A's "ceiling" over a 6 game stretch is 6-0. I honestly don't know how you don't understand this, but I'm also genuinely just not interested in this any longer.

I...I just can't help you understand what the word "ceiling" means in sports....at least anymore than I or everyone else on here has already tried to.

LOL...you still don't understand what "ceiling" means bud.

What do you think Willy goes for then? Coming off the season he's having? And what do you do with Woody? QO? Extend him if he's willing to sign for ~23-26AAV?

Well...a small distinction, the Woody deal would be kicking in next year, so he's 30.5. So you sign him now, you're signing him to the 5 year deal and you get him through 36. I feel like he's gonna be able to maintain his stuff. He's a workhorse. He's been as steady as can be minus the shoulder this year(which would be a big reason he'd take the deal). I take your point though I think he'll continue to be a very good starter. He's never really been worked real hard. He's thrown 180IP one year and then ~155. That cuts both ways though. Now...as for the Brewers not having to trade either, no, they don't. But are a couple of late picks really worth it? I guess it depends. You give me one of the Phillies top 3 pitching prospects plus a couple lower end, then do the same with Woodruff(but not as much back)...and that window with Chourio and company...it opens up MUCH wider. But maybe it all comes together next year like the Marlins with a 20 year old RHed savant or the Nats with a left handed stud? It COULD be our best chance for a WS. I don't want to trade any of them(Yelich included even though I'm the one who'd like to see an unlikely trade to clear his salary). But I'm trying to think what gives us the best chance at a Royals type run(or even a Giants type run). As for Williams, I think it depends on how we move him. By himself? I think he has less value than Hader. Not by much, but a little bit. So that's a nice deal, but there's no guarantee of a Contreras trade coming after. Gasser is great, but we need higher ceilings IMO. So that's why I'm packaging him. It's so much easier to sell a team(in theory) on a game 1 starter and a closer. That can be 8 innings of your pitching. Either way, I'm gonna be there for it.