adambr2
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Everything posted by adambr2
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Putting myself in their shoes, they absolutely need to either extend him or trade him. They'd be extending him at peak value, probably looking at Buster Posey money or close to it. Posey was extended at age 25 after his MVP season and got 8/160 with 3 years of arbitration bought out. You figure a Realmuto deal is probably close to $20m per right now over 5 or 6 years...with 2 years of arbitration bought out. If the Marlins want to and are able to do that, good for them. Otherwise, trading him now makes sense. I generally disagree with this idea that so many more teams will be interested in the offseason. Teams generally don't get desperate in the offseason with no pressure to continue a postseason run. And rebuilding teams aren't interested in Realmuto now and won't be in November. No one thinks they're rebuilding in November. Okay maybe 5 teams or so do but the other 25 are going into the following season with the mindset that they at least have a chance as opposed to it being whittled down to 12-15 teams in July that still consider themselves contenders.
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Why in the world would Realmuto be worth less now than back in March? He was simply a very good catcher then, now he's the best in the game. He's still under control for 3 pennant races. Losing him the first few months of this season doesn't nullify his breakout. Realmuto is worth Hiura+. Or Robles+. Doesn't mean we'll pay it or that the Nationals will, but anyone who is offering the Marlins less now than they were in the offseason, including us or Washington, simply isn't going to get him. There are plenty of teams in the offseason who will make a strong offer for 2 years of Realmuto if they decide to wait. I'm referring to Archer, no way is our offer for Archer now as much as it was in the offseason...given his struggles and injuries. Realmuto's value absolutely has gone up and is probably at peak. If he hits 700 OPS the rest of the way or suffers a serious injury, his value plummets. Oh yeah...I've cooled a lot on Archer. Just not enough bang for the buck. You start to wonder about guys who constantly underperform their peripherals year after year.
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This doesn't affect Williams. He's still a part of this pen. Just another weapon.
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I have no idea how much this depresses his market, if Toronto doesn't plan on moving him unless the deal is right, or if they are highly motivated to sell and simply want to distance themselves from Osuna. Still, the organization has not had a problem in the past bringing in guys like K-Rod, and I wonder if this is something that DS is keeping an eye on. Obviously, it would give us an embarrassment of riches in the pen, not only this year but moving forward with all of Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, and Osuna under club control for multiple seasons, and Soria along for the ride this year and maybe next as well.
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Doh. I flat out missed it. My bad. Sorry Joey. Mods please merge/lock/delete, whatever you need to do.
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They can ask for whatever they want, they still have 2 full years of control of him past this year. If the Nats fall out of the bidding, they can just wait til the offseason when they can still ask for a king's ransom and more teams will be willing to shuffle their rosters to do it. As long as they don't wait til the trading deadline of his final year (*cough* Orioles), they're going to get a massive package for the guy. Or Realmuto gets hurt, or he has a rough second half? Waiting is a gamble...look what happened with Archer. No way are the Brewers offering as much value now as they did in the offseason... Why in the world would Realmuto be worth less now than back in March? He was simply a very good catcher then, now he's the best in the game. He's still under control for 3 pennant races. Losing him the first few months of this season doesn't nullify his breakout. Realmuto is worth Hiura+. Or Robles+. Doesn't mean we'll pay it or that the Nationals will, but anyone who is offering the Marlins less now than they were in the offseason, including us or Washington, simply isn't going to get him. There are plenty of teams in the offseason who will make a strong offer for 2 years of Realmuto if they decide to wait.
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Interesting development from Toronto as they are now actively looking to trade away Osuna whose suspension is set to end on August 5th. Obviously Osuna isn't coming without controversy, and certainly no one supports his actions -- that said, from a baseball standpoint, that controversy could limit his market and artificially deflate his value when he's been a lights out closer, and only 23. Additionally, the suspension has pushed back his free agency -- he is controlled through 2021. I have no idea how much this depresses his market, if Toronto doesn't plan on moving him unless the deal is right, or if they are highly motivated to sell and simply want to distance themselves from Osuna. Still, the organization has not had a problem in the past bringing in guys like K-Rod, and I wonder if this is something that DS is keeping an eye on. Obviously, it would give us an embarrassment of riches in the pen, not only this year but moving forward with all of Hader, Jeffress, Knebel, and Osuna under club control for multiple seasons, and Soria along for the ride this year and maybe next as well.
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I honestly hope we just stand pat rather than throw out some of the offers that would be needed for some of the names here that I really don't think are even that exciting. I would be fine with a name like Harvey as long as it's basically free. I'm not crazy about our depth, but it's not an emergency situation. Davies is a 2nd half guy and almost back, Woodruff is still an option, and I know we can't count on Nelson but he could still return in September. Bullpenning is becoming an ever bigger thing, and I'm not giving up a Peralta quality prospect for Gausman when I'm frankly not even sure that he's going to have better results than anyone we've had. I get the appeal of guys like Archer and Gausman and Gibson and Bundy and Wheeler, I'm not against it, but all of the sudden these teams are pricing these guys like existing aces. Not interested at the prices being tossed around.
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I just don't see the Nats selling. That's a tough pill to swallow being around. 500 given preseason expectations, especially when they're only 6 games out - not at all insurmountable if they are truly the best team in that division. Plus they still have 9 games left against Philly. I think they'll try to make one last gasp run with Harper and are probably more likely to add Realmuto than sell. If they do sell they might as well go all out and sell Harper for sure and other top rentals, and that's a lot to happen in the next 30 hours.
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I didn't like it at first, but I'm warming up to it, and I really appreciate the fact that the organization is willing to venture outside the box in their thinking on any way to improve this team. I think a lot of what makes the organization feel comfortable with a move like this is Arcia. Not that they expect Moose and Shaw to be poor but Arcia can cover so much range that it really minimizes the space around him that others need to cover. I think this move is a strong signal that for better or worse, Arcia is our everyday SS. Hopefully he can continue swinging a good bat. My dream scenario that pretty much completes our lineup without sacrificing a bit of defense, and solves our catching woes through 2020, is still to somehow acquire Realmuto before the deadline, but I acknowledge it seems highly unlikely. You never really know with DS though, he keeps his moves close to the vest and there's usually little or no rumor about them beforehand.
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There are no assurances either way. Burnes isn't assured to continue to be stable in the pen, and any starter acquired isn't assured to be better than Burnes would be. What solid starter are you suggesting they go get? The best rental SPs weren't even good ones and are gone. Guys like Archer will cost the farm, guys like Wheeler and Gausman will cost more than you think. You could probably go get a solid guy like Xavier Cedeno or Jared Hughes for a lot less than the SP you want and move Burnes. I disagree that it's pointless to discuss and clear to not happen. If they don't add a SP by the deadline I think its definitely going to be considered. It was never stated that he definitely isn't returning to starting this year.
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Wasn't Brach already traded to Atlanta?
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I agree with some of this (my previous rant about individual games, not series wins being all that matters, lol), but the Giants aren't a contender. They'd be well served to admit it and get out of baseball purgatory.
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Saladino has reverted back to who he really is, a poor man's Hernan Perez.
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Story of 2 innings today. Albers was not good in his return and Guerra completely lost control in the 3rd and those 2 things were too much. 5 runs usually gets you a win.
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Well, that was helpful. One or two on base would have been nice.
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Damn, I didn't think Posey had a chance to get him.
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This isn't specifically directed at you, because I know a lot of people feel this way, but I just don't understand why. A baseball "series" is really nothing more than X number of games at the same geographical location. Series W/L results are meaningless, game W/L is all that counts. People feel better about losing game 4 of a 4 game series when they took the first 3, or better about winning Game 4 if they lost the first 3 to avoid the sweep. I know it's pretty much everyone, not just you, I just don't really get it I guess, unless it's all just psychological? A "series win" of 3-1 in San Francisco, followed by a 3-1 series win in L.A, would have the exact same net affect as sweeping today and then splitting 2-2 in L.A. All the games count the exact same independent of what already occurred in the series.
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Robles is way better than Hiura...and that’s no insult to Hiura. Robles is just that great. For whatever it's worth, Baseball Prospectus has Hiura as the 5th and Robles as the 6th best prospect in baseball. They are higher on Hiura than most other rankings, though.
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Can't be mad at Yelich lately but damn, would have been good to take advantage of the wild pitch and pull within 1.
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It's not really crazy at all. (Hiura+Woodruff+Ortiz+Ray) Is it a lot, yes. It's going to take a lot to get 2.5 years of the best catcher in baseball. It is probably about what it would take, if not more. Trading Phillips shouldn't have anything to do with Ray and shouldn't prevent us from using Ray as a trade chip if needed. Yes you're depleting the OF farm depth but it's not really a need anytime soon and you've still got Lutz, Grisham, Stokes, and Gray.
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I'm not mad about the HR, Guerra. I'm mad because you walked 3 freaking batters in a row and they all predictably came around to score.
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Me either. They will likely ask for burnes too though if what they are asking the nats is true I would really, really like to keep Burnes and Peralta. I'd go Hiura+Ortiz+Woodruff+Ray. That's an awfully good offer, I think.
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I know people love Hiura but I would have no issue using him as a Realmuto centerpiece. None.
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This team could use JT Realmuto so much.