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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    They'd have a good chance at stealing this if the shots were at all falling today. 3 for 20 on 3's against Purdue is not going to cut the mustard.
  2. adambr2
    Somehow still in it.
  3. adambr2
    This is going about as well as I would have expected it to go.
  4. adambr2
    Couldn't you argue that RB is always a great FA investment? Maybe I'm overthinking this. But...FA running backs = cheap. (Relative to other positions). So if you invest in running backs in free agency, that keeps your picks free for positions that tend to be a little more pricey in FA...WRs, pass edge rushers, offensive line....which leaves you in a better position to take advantage of rookie contracts.
  5. adambr2
    That's good, because they've sucked since then.
  6. adambr2
    Chourio is way too much to ask for Cease. Misiorowski is realistic, though. I don't think Frelick alone gets it done but I think he's a reasonable headliner. Given the state of the White Sox I think it's a mistake on their part if they don't get a deal done. As we found out with Burnes, the returns for 1 year of even an ace pitcher will be underwhelming. But they can roll the dice that he'll dominate for a few months and then deal him in the summer.
  7. adambr2
    Can you imagine having Anders in a FG battle game like this? Yikes.
  8. adambr2
    Agreed. Look at the previous snap. Was botched and very low. Something like that happens and it gets past Mahomes and time expires before someone even gets to the ball.
  9. adambr2
    This team is just so discombobulated. On paper, we weren't supposed to get worse.
  10. adambr2
    Well it was fun a week ago thinking we were really good.
  11. adambr2
    Sorry if this has been answered already-- is it known whether all these games will be included for Amazon Prime subscribers, or if it will require purchasing some sort of an additional add-on to the existing base Prime membership?
  12. adambr2
    They could have pulled this one out if they weren't bricking every single 3 this half.
  13. adambr2
    Boy, those were some careless possessions at the end with a shot to get back in it. Not that either of these last two losses was a bad one, but would have been nice to get 1 out of 2. Tough week probably drops them back out of the top 10.
  14. adambr2
    This only works if you're assuming that Ortiz and Hall are replacing replacement level players.
  15. adambr2
    Amazing to me how many people thought we were just going to get a king's ransom for one year of Burnes. That ship sailed a year or two ago.
  16. adambr2
    Suppose it's us up 14 in the 3rd, 4th and 2 at the 28. How confident are you that Anders is even connecting from 45-46 to give you the 3?
  17. adambr2
    Campbell may have said that, but I don't think he just blindly calls it aggressively every time with no regard to the opponent or situation. Wouldn't him kicking the FG before half be an example of that? Why does no one mention the other side of the coin there when critiquing him? Could easily argue that if Detroit gets into the endzone there and go up 28-7 at half instead of 24-7, they win, right? Fact of the matter is there are so many decisions in the NFL that are basically a coin flip as to which decision is correct and sometimes your decision will make you look good and sometimes it'll make you look stupid. So as long as the decisions have some basis in logic, whether I agree with the logic or not, I have a hard time second guessing them. You can almost write the article of the opposite critique if he goes for the FG on 4th and 2, Badgley misses wide right and the 49ers get the ball at the 35 and march right down and score 7. "With the Super Bowl within their grasp and facing a very manageable 4th and 2 in iffy field goal territory, Dan Campbell had a chance to seize the moment and give Detroit their first Super Bowl. Instead, he got away from what worked for the Lions all year and got them there. Coach Campbell went conservative in the moment and it backfired on him in a big way."
  18. adambr2
    From the box score the first one said 28 yard line if I'm not mistaken which would be 45 or 46. And the second 47 or 48 as you said. If your kicker is only a 50/50 proposition from 45+ that definitely needs to be weighed. That's basically the 4th down conversion odds.
  19. adambr2
    FG success rate drops pretty drastically once you start getting into the 40s. At 45-46 yards it is roughly 75.8% since 2010, or about 3 in 4. If if is truly 85-90% you are talking 35-40 yards and I'm probably in agreement on the 3 then. The extra kicker on failing the FG is also losing 7-8 yards in field position versus failing on 4th. In most cases I have a really hard time second guessing coaches if the percentages were probably played, or at least not clearly improperly played. Some of the situations in which coaches go for it now would have been highly critiqued in the 90s. It's good that they're not anymore, and it's good that they're able to make smart decisions that use the data that we've learned without the threat of losing their job from being second guessed because in any sport you can make a good decision and still get a bad result. My only issue with analytics is that I'm not sure it can weigh the value of momentum which is a hard phenomenon to properly value.
  20. adambr2
    But again, you don't have a guarantee of a kicker making a 45-46 yard FG. It's kind of like in baseball when people say "why don't they just bunt him to 3rd?", like it's a sure thing. Say what you will about Campbell but analytics support the position that over the course of the season his decisions have added more points than they've lost and he's been among the best in that area. Obviously things can be situational but there's no analytics to support that he made the wrong decisions last night. The only time I thought he went completely unreasonably rogue this year is not kicking the XP after the penalty in Dallas.
  21. adambr2
    A 45-46 yard FG is not a "gimmee", and I'm surprised that anyone who had Anders Carlson as his kicker this year would suggest that. If Reynolds just catches the pass this isn't even being second guessed. You can't just "take" 3 points. Your kicker has to earn them for you. If it was as easy as just adding 3 points to the scoreboard it would probably change these decisions.
  22. adambr2
    I thought the only time Campbell absolutely needed to just take points was right before the half to go up 17. And he did. Other than that...going for 4th and shorts in otherwise a long FG range situation is hard for me to second guess.
  23. adambr2
    Did anyone ever hear any explanation as to why there was no intentional grounding called on the play or two before the Kittle TD? Purdy was clearly in the pocket, and there was absolutely NO 49er anywhere close.
  24. adambr2
    If he makes the FG it changes that last drive entirely. We're playing for a FG attempt being WORST case scenario in that case and aren't in desperation mode as much. Good chance Love never even makes that throw, good chance we run the ball more with multiple timeouts. For sure there's a lot of plays that could have still turned the game in our favor, but it's tough defending Anders.
  25. adambr2
    The black lining in this little mini run we made was that it looks like MLF is going to use it to justify extending Joe Barry, which is sickening. So get ready for another talented defense which is also ranked 20 something in most defensive categories.
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