owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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Usually when oil prices spike, American oil companies invest the profits into additional production. They have been burned by this in the past because prices drop by the time they can actually increase capacity, which takes years. The expectation is also that oil demand will either stagnate or drop because of the increasing electrification of the transportation network. So there isn't any point in increasing production. Prices will stay high. In the long run it was a miracle of fracking technology that temporarily got prices down for an extra two decades. That's over now. As for the economy as a whole...the era of free money had to end. Things are going to get worse but at least we're being somewhat proactive this time which is unusual for the government. I don't know what's going to happen to the majority of people in this country who are struggling to get by. I'm also curious if they are going to make me repay student loans again in a couple of months. I'm guessing they will use the impending recession to punt on that again...certainly I'm not planning on making any payments prior to the midterm elections.
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Caught about half the game last night. What a wild hockey game. Clearly the goalies were rattled by the pressure of the series. It will be interesting to see if they settle down in game 2. The Flames are a better team, but McDavid is far and away the best player on the ice. And that's saying something because Johnny Gaudreau is pretty darn good. When it was 1 on 1 the Flames basically just tackled McDavid and drew a penalty. It could have been a 10-9 score last night if Edmonton could have gotten comfortable on the power play. Calgary should win the series, but the fact that McDavid might single handedly prevent that, as he did vs. LA in round 1, makes it fascinating to watch.
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My dad suggested the same thing but the lack of liquidity scares me away. Recessions are like garage sales -- gotta be able to convert to cash to buy at a discount. Unfortunately it sounds like politicians have gone nuts, advocating for tax cuts and further stimulus during an inflation crisis. It's gonna get ugly.
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Sell it all. Cut your losses and get out now while you still can. The whole ship is going down.
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Before accepting A I would have reached out to B saying I have an offer in hand and want to see what they can do to speed along the process. My partner was in this situation recently with several companies and the ones that were seriously interested came back with an expedited interview schedule. These days an accepted offer doesn't mean what it used to but it still puts you in a sticky situation if you have to bail on A.
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I found Hyperion to be mind blowing. I thought the plot wrapped up to a decent stopping point after the second book and I didn't have any interest in reading beyond that. I would say the entire first book is basically background for the second one. The classic one that I couldn't get into was Blindsight, although the concept is fascinating. Now I'm reminded that I need to get back into reading sci-fi...more recommendations please!
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These days it is very easy to apply to jobs. I did my search via LinkedIn. You can get most of the application fields to autofill. I doubt I spent more than 3 or 4 minutes applying to what is now my current job. You can also set your status on LinkedIn to actively searching and the recruiters will find you. My view is that I’m always job hunting. You never know when a better opportunity is going to present itself, and you basically need to have other offers in order to negotiate compensation, even if you are staying at your current role.
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I'm glad that I'm not looking for a house right now. Inventory is basically zero, at least here in the PNW. In a tech city you just wait for your stock options to vest and then your down payment appears in your bank account overnight. Or just skip the down payment. Definitely don't try to save. I think the main driving force is additional bedrooms to serve as home offices. We have a 3-bedroom house but two of the bedrooms are now offices. The other is vacation homes. And of course everyone knows that the supply has not kept up with demand for a long time. Cities are never going to go out of fashion so it isn't surprising to see them rebound. Zoom towns are starting to crack down on short-term rentals. In other cases I think the idea of having a big house with a view in the middle of nowhere is going to get boring for many people. Cities are so convenient. I'd rather renovate my house than try to move again.
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If you're into musicals, Tick Tick Boom is really good. An oscar nomination-worthy performance from Andrew Garfield. It's on Netflix.
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I haven’t looked it up, but I assume Wisconsin is the worst team in the Big Ten since it was founded? Maybe Michigan State has been slightly worse?
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The purpose is to make money right? How do I make money if the exchanges are taking high transaction fees? That's going to discourage me from making trades. Or is the idea that it's fine because we're not talking about 10% gains here, we're going for 100% or 1000%? What's clear to me is that these exchanges are making absurd amounts of money right now by siphoning off transaction fees. Sites I've never heard of are buying naming rights to arenas? That's just wild. The people getting rich off this seem to be the ones that are controlling the marketplace, and it's so unregulated that they can basically do whatever they want. The Michael Lewis book about this era is going to be something. Thanks for those links -- GAME05. There's a ton to digest. I don't even know where to start. Honestly it seems like it would be a better use of my energy to just create my own altcoin, that seems like a better use of my energy. Get ready for BF.net coin or something...
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Buy an ETF. There's several Bitcoin or blockchain ETFs (which are mostly composed of companies that hold a lot of Bitcoin/crypto) that move with the price of the big cryptos. That's a good idea, thank you.
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Ok, so I have FOMO and I want to buy this dip and make some money on crypto. First question -- crypto is decentralized so how do I buy crypto without having to go through one of these exchanges like Coinbase which is trying to charge me absurd transaction fees. I got myself a wallet and tried to put crypto in it, but that isn't possible because of the cost of ethereum. I don't want to pay more than 0.25% in transaction fees. How do I do this? I know the financial system is rigged, but crypto seems really, really rigged.
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Yes. But generally if someone is hiring they need someone who can solve a problem NOW. Much easier to find someone with direct experience than to do the harder thing and make committed investments to employees, or think beyond a quarter or two from now. My partner recently had this exact thing happen with her team -- the two final candidates were a "rockstar" but without direct experience and a second person who had a less-impressive resume but direct experience. Who did the team want? The second candidate, of course, because that person could make their jobs easier on day 1. My partner did successfully convince them to take the first candidate, but it took some persuasion. By the way, personal update, after several instances of bad luck in the interview process I am finally in the process of negotiating a job offer! Interestingly, this job is 100% remote, the nearest office is several states away. It's a team of 20 and there are people in about 10 different states in every time zone. I think that's the new reality and I'm pretty happy about it, although I think at some point we're going to need a bigger house with dedicated offices--currently my office doubles as a guest bedroom.
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I get that crypto was created in response to the banking crisis, but, after over a decade, does it actually solve any of the problems with banking or will it in the next 5 years? If anything there are more problems... (1) It's extremely inefficient + bad for the environment (2) Government regulation is inevitable (3) It's too volatile to be used for banking (4) The platforms are not secure It's a speculation bomb like everything else in the economy right now...stocks, housing, commodities, etc. My vanguard index funds are up over 20% this year and it's required exactly zero effort on my part. Money is free flowing right now and crypto is growing because people are looking for every possible avenue to invest their increasing cash. When the economy inevitably blows up, crypto will go down with it. Again, I'm not arguing that there are not uses for some aspects of this technology, but that is all completely decoupled from the speculation bubble that we are all playing, myself included. We all know it's unsustainable and if things really start going downhill we're all going to pull our investments. As long as cash is free-flowing I would buy every dip.
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To me that's the big mystery -- what problem is crypto trying to solve? Certainly not banking transactions since the current system processes a billion of them per day quite efficiently while crypto is doing a couple hundred thousand at a prohibitive cost per transaction. This is quickly apparent if you actually try and create your own wallet and buy bitcoin with cash. Almost nobody does this because it's easier to just "buy" crypto credits with Robinhood or Coinbase. Anyway, that's all totally fine, there is plenty of profit to be made and you just have to jump ship before the whole thing crashes down. Buy the dip and HODL!
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So, I'm doing a serious job search for the first time in a while and have gotten to the early interview process at a few positions at the same time. I just want to vent about how time consuming/mentally exhausting it is...hour after hour of interviews that I have to be on my A-game for, one place has me doing a coding homework assignment that is taking forever, studying for technical interviews, plus I'm up for promotion at my current job which requires preparing additional presentations and materials...and then there's my actual 40 hour/week job which I am still doing. Of course ideally I would like to time this so that I have multiple offers on the table at the same time, but everything is moving at different speeds. Also, all three of these jobs are in different cities, two are fully remote, one they would prefer to have me at the office 5 days/week but of course nobody wants to do that anymore so I need to negotiate work from home days. It honestly feels kind of creepy that a company would want me in the office 5 days/week...it's a tech job, I'm going to be more productive if you just let me work where I want to... /vent
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The wedding industry is certainly benefitting from social media, that's all I have to say about that. There's obviously a record of me bashing crypto in this topic but I certainly can't complain about the 1400% return on my small dogecoin purchase from January. Dogecoin is my favorite investment by far because I think it truly epitomizes everything that I've learned about investing in the past year. Don't bet against memes.
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Yes, my bad, that's what I meant, writing the code to train an ML algorithm
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The good news is that: (1) All the coding I did 5 years ago is no longer relevant. (2) Every day people come up with tools that make it easier and easier to code. For AI/ML in particular it's more important to have the linear algebra and stats background. Coding a ML algorithm is so easy that you can learn in a couple of hours. I second the Raspberry Pi suggestion.
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We try to watch them all each year as well. Big fan of The Father thus far, though Kaluuya was very, very good in Judas, which was enjoyable. Minari was your typical well-done Oscar-type movie that may win a bunch of awards, but I didn't think it was exceptional. I had the same reaction to Minari...good movie but not an award winner. Enjoyed the supporting roles the most--the grandma and kids in particular. --- Hopper, lets not drag politics into the movie thread please.
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With the Oscars this weekend, I'm wondering if anyone else likes to watch the best picture contenders. I've only gotten through about half of them this year and haven't seen the favorite (Nomadland) yet. Out of what I've seen I thought Promising Young Woman was the best and Daniel Kaluuya's performance in Judas and the Black Messiah was phenomenal.
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I generally dislike crypto because the blockchain is such a terrible, energy wasting concept, but my $50 investment in dogecoin was briefly worth $160 so it's hard to complain about that. I understand that the value of everything in this world is somewhat arbitrary, but NFTs are such a late-stage capitalism creation that I can't even wrap my head around how pointless they are. But if there's money to be made, well...invest away I guess.
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I would nominate either Rosati's or Ann's for best Hwy 100 pizza. And now I'm hungry.
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Of course! Grew up 5 minutes from Organ Piper. Went to many birthday parties there. I hope it survives the pandemic. I also have no idea if the pizza was any good or not
