Raw Biz

I was thinking the same thing. An actual quote would be nice.

If we're trading Lucroy, I would want to work with someone with a better system than LAA. I don't think they have the pieces.

I've had my eye on Fulmer since I started looking at Mets prospects. He throws hard and has good stuff but he doesn't have the control. I just worry that he will be Hellweg 2.0. And to me, it doesn't matter where a guy was drafted. It doesn't matter if some guy was a 1st round pick years ago if he hasn't backed it up. That being said, it's not a bad starting point. I would take Fulmer and maybe have them throw someone else in, like Casey Meisner. Fulmer has a BB per 9 IP rate of 3.1 which is exactly half of Hellweg's career rate of 6.2. This season it's 2.4. Hellweg's minor league career WHIP is over 1.5. Fulmer's is 1.28 How are they comparable again? Parra isn't going to get both Fulmer and Meisner back. Now if you coupled Segura with Parra, then yes go for both, and maybe another lesser player like a Ceciliani who could compete for CF job post Gomez. Fulmer would likely crack the top 5 or 6 in Brewer prospect list. If they can get that for Parra, I'm ok with that. Notice I said I worry that he will be Hellweg 2.0, not that he is. Last year Fulmer had a WHIP of 1.55. Yes it's down this year and that's good but is he capable of keeping it up? I haven't seen him pitch so I'm just going off of his stats and what scouts say. And what I've read is that he can lack control at times. A hard thrower that lacks control? Sorry but Hellweg came to mind. That is how they are comparable. Weren't you the one who said that we should try to maximize Parra's trade value? Well I agreed with you that Fulmer would be a good starting point but I wouldn't jump at the first deal. Hence I said, maybe try to get someone else.

I've had my eye on Fulmer since I started looking at Mets prospects. He throws hard and has good stuff but he doesn't have the control. I just worry that he will be Hellweg 2.0. And to me, it doesn't matter where a guy was drafted. It doesn't matter if some guy was a 1st round pick years ago if he hasn't backed it up. That being said, it's not a bad starting point. I would take Fulmer and maybe have them throw someone else in, like Casey Meisner.

But you aren't addressing what happens when Parra accepts the offer. He would be crazy not to accept it and then we're paying a 4th OF $16 million. Even if he platoons with Davis, he's not worth that. And if Gomez is traded, we have a $16 million CF who shouldn't be in CF with declining defensive skills.

I believe I read that they changed the PTNBL rules because of Turner last year. Now you no longer have to wait a full year after they signed to trade them, it is just until the day after the World Series ends. So there would still have to be some sort of agreement to get Jay, but it wouldn't be as awkward as having him pitch a half a season for a team knowing he won't be there any more. As for Berrios, I'll admit I haven't watched him pitch but from what I've read, he sits low-to-mid 90s, has a plus offspeed pitch, and good control. Link to just one report I read, though this says his control is spotty at times. http://www.baseballoutlook.com/scouting-report-jose-berrios-twins-no-2-prospect/ Edit: I will agree with you, that from your list, Jay is the #1 guy I would want.

Crew, do you really think we could get Berrios, Gordon, and Jay for Gomez/Cotts? I would be ecstatic for that. Side note, why do you see Berrios only profiling as a 3? He limits his walks, strikes out a fair amount of guys, and doesn't give up many HR. And he's only 21 and in AA/AAA. I'm also not a big Nick Gordon, although I would take him to see if we could potentially trade him for another piece. Maybe you are right and we need to get a third team involved. Giants? Mets?

There are a couple of them already so we can probably just close this. viewtopic.php?f=66&t=32807 viewtopic.php?f=66&t=32896

The Red Sox got a pretty good pitcher in Eduardo Rodriguez last year from the Orioles for Andrew Miller. Rodriguez was the Orioles #3 prospect. Cotts hasn't been as lights out as Miller was and his salary is a little more. I'm actually surprised the O's gave up that much for Miller. I would be happy with just about any prospect for Cotts, let alone a top 10.

I think people have been high on him ever since his big year in the DSL http://gradingonthecurve.com/2011/07/29/brewers-shortstop-prospect-orlando-arcia-making-noise-in-the-dsl/ I'm a little surprised that he's moved this quickly, going from the DSL to AA in 4 years, and he's only gotten better. I know we were all hoping he would be this good but with our luck, I think we all just assumed the worst. Edit: Some are talking about him not having a pedigree or being an unknown but he is the younger brother of Oswaldo Arcia, who was already mashing in the Twins minor leagues at the time Orlando was signed, so he was definitely on a lot of teams' radar.

I don't think I'd want Meyer. He's got good stuff but he has control issues. The Brewers, for whatever reason, just have not been able to work with these types of pitchers to harness their control. I'd much rather take someone who doesn't throw as hard, or even has less stuff, but that can control his pitches. Swap Meyer for Berrios and I'm on board.

+1. Hopefully these comments go a long way towards encouraging a trade sooner than later. It leaves a black hole in the organization but if it brings back a possible future ace its worth it. Exactly. I was hoping to read the comments by him were "I'm going to be on the wrong side of 30 when my contract is up, this team is going nowhere in the next two years, I will want a lot of money, and my skills will be declining. However, I'm signed to a very reasonable contract now and the Brewers could probably get their pick of just about any team's top prospects. So they should just go ahead and trade me now." Hopefully that's what the Brewers are reading into it.

Not to derail the thread but just so everyone is on the same page, using John Sickels as a reference: "Grade A prospects are the elite. In theory, they have a good chance of becoming stars or superstars. Theoretically, most Grade A prospects develop into stars or at least major league regulars, if injuries or other problems don’t intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases. Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role. Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all." Tyrone Taylor and Clint Coulter were both B prospects coming into this season. Taylor hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in AA this year but I still think he has the tools to keep his B prospect label (I would put him it a B- if splitting things further). Coulter should also keep his B level rating. He's had a nice year so far but an .800 OPS as 21 year old in A+ ball doesn't scream A prospect to me.

I never said to do whatever you must to trade an asset. I even said I could understand holding on to Lind. And I'm again confused by your post. You talk about guys like Arcia and Lara but then you also say that we should just take major league talent (I'm assuming you mean major league ready talent). Arcia likely won't make a significant impact until 2017. Lara probably not until at least 2019, even assuming he continues to dominate like he has the past month. Are you content just treading water until then? I don't see a difference between 75 and 65 wins, you're not making the playoffs with either. I'd much rather trade our valuable assets at their peak and bring back players that will help us win for the future.

I don't follow this logic. Are we now basing trades on whether a guy is hot? Should expect the moon for Hernan Perez and Taylor Jungmann now? I would think GMs understand that a recent hot or cold streak has little effect on a guy's ultimate value. I would gladly take a B-level prospect (i.e., Coulter, Taylor) for either one of these guys now. They are not part of the future, their value is arguably at the highest, and we have other guys in the system that we could be taking a look at who play those positions. Sure those guys might not be future starters but they could be serviceable platoon or bench players. I could understand the argument for maybe keeping Lind since he has another year on his contract but I don't see his value getting any higher. And your quote on "controllable major league talent in return" is exactly why we have gotten to where we are now. Why do we constantly need to limit ourselves on a potential return. The ultimate goal should be to get the best talent back. I don't care what level that player is at, as great players will always be useful.

Thank you, I was looking for a way to describe my feelings. Honestly the original post led me into a blind rage. I just don't understand how people can continue to feel this way. Nobody wants to go back to the late 90s/early 2000s, I get that. What lots of people are proposing here is how to avoid doing exactly that. We can't be blind to the fact that the team as constructed is not very good and is not ready to compete with the division, let alone the rest of the league. However, I think the farm is in a better position than the Astros/Cubs were when they began their rebuilds a few years ago. We need to trade at least 2 of our most valuable assets (Gomez, Segura, Lucroy), plus the guys with expiring deals, and retool/rebuild/whateveryouwanttocallit for 2017/2018. I think that is a reasonable target but if we hold on to these pieces, the wait will be even longer and more painful.

I agree with the thinking that it will be Ray. They likely had a plan in place, although as Lee pointed out, that plan may have been accelerated with the horrible product on the field this year. I'm sure Ray has somebody that will be taking over his spot, assuming he is indeed being promoted. If he is, I hope that he has more involvement in the draft process, more so than Melvin may have had in the past. He seems to know what he's doing.

Why are we not going after this man? http://f742a291acf7f6ce2375-d87d8e7b51bb281f7a964c4a606459da.r10.cf1.rackcdn.com/lucius_fox_1.jpg

Is that all on him though? I thought a lot of this is because of Moreno. Some the recent trades he's done (getting Skaggs, Santiago, and Heaney) are pretty good.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/jerry-dipoto-possibly-out-as-angels-gm.html Very interesting story going on here. There has long been animosity between Dipoto and Scioscia and it looks like it's finally boiled over. Dipoto seems to be in that new-school of statistical analysis and Scioscia is very old-school, going off of gut-feeling and how a player looks. I decided to look at the Dipoto's transaction history to see what sort of things he's done. http://www.angelswin-forum.com/forums/topic/61-jerry-dipoto-gm-history/ His first big moves were signing CJ Wilson and Albert Pujols to big contracts, which hasn't worked out as good as he may have hoped. At first glance, some of this trades are questionable (for instance sending Grichuk+ for Freese+, as well as the Greinke deal) but I don't know enough about their minor league system to pass much judgment. What are people's thoughts on him? While I would love to bring in a younger, statistical-oriented GM, his transaction success doesn't stick out like Freidman or even Daniels. If/when Melvin retires or moves up the chain of command, is he someone you would target? Personally, I really like Ray Montgomery and would like to see him take over but I also love what Ray did in the draft this year.

I would put Rivera in the B/B- class of prospects now. He may have started out as a C but I think he's improved tremendously. If we're giving up Yadiel Rivera, we better be getting a damn good prospect in return. He's arguably the best defensive player at the most important defensive position in our system and he's improved his hitting at every level (with the exception of his slow start this year since being called up to AAA).

I'm glad I'm not the only who noticed that. I was a little scared as well. Although, as I've mentioned in previous posts, I wouldn't mind Ray moving up to GM and having him hand-pick his successor (preferably someone outside the organization or who thinks differently than those under previous regimes).

This is the key for me. I like Doug Melvin. I think he's a good GM to have when you want to take your team from horrible to pretty good. Unfortunately, pretty good isn't cutting it anymore. We need to be great, and not just for one to two seasons, but for a prolonged period of time. I don't think Melvin is that type of GM. He doesn't seem to have a long-term vision. Although part of me does think that he has changed and realizes we need to rebuild but Attanasio has it in his head that we can compete every year if we just "plug the holes from last year." Maybe Attanasio really has tied Melvin's hands. Regardless, I do think it's time for a change. I'm actually hoping that Ray Montgomery is being groomed for the job and that he already has someone lined up to take over his duties when he steps up.

I don't think Lucroy's stock is much different than it was coming in. He's started off slow but that is likely a combination of the injury and some bad luck. He's still a cost-controlled catcher in his prime who can put up big numbers, and teams know that. That being said, I agree, the time to deal him is likely in the offseason, when there would theoretically be more buyers. However, with this potentially being a seller's market this year, I don't think you automatically make him unavailable. You let teams know that "you're not motivated to move him at this time." In other words, make me an offer I can't refuse.